CN109389331B - Gas channeling risk evaluation method and system - Google Patents
Gas channeling risk evaluation method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating risk of gas channeling, which comprise the following steps: carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate basic factors, gas channeling time influence parameters of the basic factors and importance values of the basic factors; weighting according to the obtained first values corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value; weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values; dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value; and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table. According to the method and the device, a gas channeling risk evaluation model is established through the pre-estimated value, the core value and the result value, so that the evaluation on the gas channeling risk level is realized, and the beneficial effect of quickly and efficiently evaluating the gas channeling risk size under the current condition is achieved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of oil development, in particular to a method and a system for evaluating a gas channeling risk.
Background
In the middle and later stages of oil field development, gas injection exploitation has been widely applied to production sites to achieve the purpose of improving recovery efficiency. During gas injection development, a dominant path for gas flow is created once the production well has a breakthrough, resulting in a reduction in the ultimate recovery. By evaluating the risk level of the gas channeling under the current condition, corresponding measures are taken to delay the time of the gas channeling before the gas channeling.
Therefore, how to evaluate the risk of gas channeling in the current situation is a technology to be solved urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a method and a system for evaluating the risk of gas channeling.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a gas channeling risk evaluation method, including:
carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, a gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and an importance value of each basic factor;
Weighting according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value;
weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values;
dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value;
and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table.
The invention also provides a gas channeling risk evaluation system, which comprises:
the analysis unit is used for carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, a gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and an importance value of each basic factor;
the estimated value generating unit is used for weighting according to the acquired first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate estimated values;
the core value generating unit is used for weighting according to the second scores corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values;
The result value generating unit is used for dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value;
and the grade generating unit is used for generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the pre-estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table.
The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating a risk of gas channeling, which comprise the following steps: carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate basic factors, gas channeling time influence parameters of the basic factors and importance values of the basic factors; weighting according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value; weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values; dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value; and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table. According to the method and the device, a gas channeling risk evaluation model is established through the pre-estimated value, the core value and the result value, so that the evaluation on the gas channeling risk level is realized, and the beneficial effect of quickly and efficiently evaluating the gas channeling risk size under the current condition is achieved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating risk of gas channeling according to the present application;
fig. 2 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating risk of gas channeling in an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a method for risk of gas breakthrough in another embodiment of the present application;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a gas channeling risk evaluation system provided in the present application.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As used herein, "first," "second," … …, etc., are not intended to be limited to the exact order or sequence presented, nor are they intended to be limiting, but merely to distinguish one element from another or from another element or operation described by the same technical term.
As used herein, the terms "comprising," "including," "having," "containing," and the like are open-ended terms that mean including but not limited to.
As used herein, "and/or" includes any and all combinations of the described items.
In view of the defects in the prior art, the present invention provides a method, a flowchart of which is shown in fig. 1, the method comprising:
s101: and carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, the gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and the importance value of each basic factor.
S102: and weighting according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value.
S103: and weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values.
S104: and dividing the obtained produced gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value.
S105: and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table.
As can be seen from the flow shown in fig. 1, the present application performs big data analysis on each acquired production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, a gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor, and an importance value of each basic factor; weighting according to the obtained first values corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value; weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values; dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value; and finally, establishing a gas channeling risk evaluation model according to the pre-estimated value, the core value and the result value, so that the evaluation of the gas channeling risk level is realized, and the method has the beneficial effect of quickly and efficiently evaluating the gas channeling risk under the current condition.
In order to make the present invention better understood by those skilled in the art, a more detailed embodiment is listed below, and in this embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, the embodiment of the present invention provides a method for evaluating a risk of gas channeling, which includes the following steps:
S201: and carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, the gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and the importance value of each basic factor.
In specific implementation, various production data in the field gas injection development process are selected, the production data are classified, and the basic factors, the gas channeling time influence parameters of the basic factors and the importance values of the basic factors are calculated and generated by using an optimal scale regression method in SPSS big data analysis software, as shown in tables 1 and 2. Wherein the gas channeling time influencing parameters are used for evaluating the influence of each basic factor on the gas channeling time length.
Among them, the basic factors include: the gas channeling time influencing parameters are, in this embodiment, significance values (abbreviated as Sig).
TABLE 1
TABLE 2
| Fundamental factors | Importance value (K) i ) |
| Relationship between injection and production | 0.692 |
| Speed of gas injection | 0.217 |
| Strength of bottom water | 0.091 |
S202: and weighting according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value.
The step S202 specifically includes the following steps:
s301: and correcting the acquired saliency values to generate corrected saliency values.
In specific implementation, the formula for correcting the significance value is shown as formula (1):
S′ i ＝1-S i (1)
wherein i is the ith basic factor, S i Is a significance value of the ith basic factor namely Sig, S' i For the significance value of the ith basic factor after correction, i is a positive integer.
The significance values of the respective basic factors were corrected according to the formula (1) based on the significance values of the respective basic factors in table 1, and the correction results are shown in table 3.
TABLE 3
S302: and acquiring each first score according to each corrected significance value and a preset first score table.
The preset first score table is shown in table 4.
TABLE 4
| First score | Possibility of occurrence | S′ i |
| 10 | Is fully anticipated | 80％～100％ |
| 6 | Quite probably | 60％～80％ |
| 3 | Can make it possible to | 40％～60％ |
| 1 | Has low possibility of | 30％～40％ |
| 0.5 | Is very unlikely to | 20％～30％ |
| 0.2 | Is very unlikely to | 10％～20％ |
| 0.1 | Is practically impossible | ＞10％ |
Specifically, it is clear from Table 3 that S 'of the gas-oil injection and production relationship' 1 99.5% gas injection speed S' 2 Is 86.1 percent of S 'with bottom water strength' 3 Was 30.1% from Table 4, it is clear that S' 1 Corresponding first score T 1 Is 10, S' 2 Corresponding first score T 2 Is 10, S' 3 Corresponding first score T 3 Is 1.
S303: and weighting according to the first scores and preset first weight coefficients to generate a predicted value.
The calculation formula of the estimated value is shown as formula (2):
Where P is the estimated value, i is the ith basic factor, T i A first score, a, corresponding to the gas channeling time influencing parameter of the ith basic factor i And the first weight coefficient is a first weight coefficient corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameter of the ith basic factor, wherein i is a positive integer.
In specific implementation, as can be seen from tables 1 to 4, in this embodiment, the number of the basic factors is 3, i is 3, where the 1 st basic factor is the gas injection rate, the 2 nd basic factor is the bottom water strength, and the 3 rd basic factor is the gas injection rate.
Wherein, each first weight coefficient is in one-to-one correspondence with each basic factor. A first weight coefficient a corresponding to the significance value of the preset injection-production relationship 1 0.6, significance of gas injection speedFirst weight coefficient a corresponding to the characteristic value 2 0.35, a first weight coefficient a corresponding to the significance value of the bottom water intensity 3 ＝0.05。
Therefore, the estimation calculation process is as shown in equation (3):
s203: and weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values.
The specific execution of step S203 includes the following steps:
s401: and obtaining each second score according to the importance value of each basic factor and a preset second score table.
TABLE 5
| Second fraction | Frequency of exposure to hazards | Importance value |
| 10 | Continuous exposure | 0.7～1 |
| 6 | More than once a day | 0.5～0.7 |
| 3 | Once a week | 0.3～0.5 |
| 2 | Once a month | 0.2～0.3 |
| 1 | Several times a year | 0.1～0.2 |
| 0.5 | Is very rare | 0～0.1 |
Wherein, the preset second score table is shown in table 5.
In concrete implementation, the importance value K of the injection-production relationship can be found from Table 2 1 0.692, the value of importance of the gas injection velocity K 2 0.217, the value K of the importance of the bottom water strength 3 Is 0.091. Further, from Table 5, K is 1 Corresponding first score J 1 Is 6, K 2 Corresponding first score J 2 Is 2, K 3 Corresponding first score J 3 Is 0.5.
S402: and weighting according to the second scores and preset second weight coefficients to generate a core value.
The calculation formula for the core value is shown in formula (4):
wherein I is a core value, I is the ith basic factor, J i A second score corresponding to the importance value of the ith basic factor, b i And the second weight coefficient is corresponding to the gas importance value of the ith basic factor, and i is a positive integer.
And each second weight coefficient corresponds to each basic factor one by one. The second weight coefficient and the first weight coefficient corresponding to each basic factor may be the same or different, and the application is not limited thereto.
In specific implementation, in this embodiment, the second weight coefficient and the first weight coefficient corresponding to each basic factor may be the same, that is, the second weight coefficient b corresponding to the importance value of the preset injection-production relationship 1 ＝a 1 0.6, a first weight coefficient b corresponding to the importance value of the gas injection speed 2 ＝＝a 2 0.35, a first weight coefficient b corresponding to the importance value of the bottom water intensity 3 ＝a 3 ＝0.05。
Therefore, the core value calculation process is as shown in equation (5):
s204: and dividing the obtained produced gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value.
In specific implementation, the ratio of the produced gas to the oil at the current moment is divided by a preset threshold to generate a result value r, and the calculation process is shown as a formula (6):
in this embodiment, the ratio of the produced gas to the oil at the current time is 138, the preset threshold is 200, and the result value can be obtained according to the formula (6)
S205: and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table.
The specific implementation of step S205 includes the following steps:
s501: and acquiring a third score according to the result value and a preset third score table.
The preset third score table is shown in table 6.
TABLE 6
In specific implementation, a third score R of 10 is obtained according to table 6 and the result R of 0.69.
S502: and integrating the estimated value, the core value and the third value to generate a risk value.
In specific implementation, the estimated value P, the core value I, and the third score R are integrated to generate a risk value D, and the calculation process is shown in formula (7):
D＝P·I·R＝9.55×4.325×10＝413.0375 (7)
S503: and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the risk value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table.
A table of preset gas breakthrough risk ratings, as shown in table 7.
TABLE 7
| Third fraction value | Risk level of gas channeling |
| ＞320 | The risk of gas channeling is large, and the gas channeling is very easy to occur |
| 100～320 | Risk of gas channeling in general |
| 0～100 | The risk of gas channeling is small, and the gas channeling is not easy to occur |
Specifically, a risk level of gas channeling is generated from the risk value D of 413.0375 and table 7, specifically, the risk of gas channeling is high and the gas channeling is very likely to occur. Thus, for reservoirs and under conditions of producing the gas-oil ratio 138, the production well is at a greater risk of gas breakthrough and is susceptible to gas breakthrough.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 3, a method for evaluating a risk of gas channeling according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the steps of:
s601: and carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, the gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and the importance value of each basic factor.
Among them, the basic factors include: in this embodiment, the gas channeling time influencing parameter is specifically any one of Beta (regression coefficient), boost (1000) (intermediate effect test result) estimation of standard error, and F (significance test of regression equation).
In specific implementation, various production data in the field gas injection development process are selected, the production data are classified, and the basic factors, the gas channeling time influence parameters of the basic factors and the importance values of the basic factors are calculated and generated by using an optimal scale regression method in SPSS big data analysis software, as shown in tables 2 and 8. Wherein the gas channeling time influencing parameters are used for evaluating the influence of each basic factor on the gas channeling time length.
TABLE 8
S602: and weighting according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value.
The step S602 specifically includes the following steps:
s701: and acquiring each first score according to each gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and a preset first score table. See step S302 for a specific implementation process.
S702: and weighting according to the first scores and preset first weight coefficients to generate an estimated value. Wherein, each first weight coefficient is in one-to-one correspondence with each basic factor. See step S303 for a specific implementation process.
S603: and weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values. See step S203 for a specific implementation process.
S604: and dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value. See step S204 for a specific implementation process.
S605: and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table. See step S205 for a specific implementation process.
Based on the same application concept as the gas channeling risk evaluation method, the invention also provides a gas channeling risk evaluation system, which is described in the following embodiments. Because the principle of solving the problems of the system is similar to the gas channeling risk evaluation method, the implementation of the system can be referred to the implementation of the gas channeling risk evaluation method, and repeated parts are not described again.
Fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a gas channeling risk evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present application, and as shown in fig. 4, the gas channeling risk evaluation system includes: analysis section 101, estimated value generation section 102, core value generation section 103, result value generation section 104, and rank generation section 105.
And the analysis unit 101 is configured to perform big data analysis on the acquired production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, a gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor, and an importance value of each basic factor.
And the estimated value generating unit 102 is configured to perform weighting according to the acquired first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influencing parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate an estimated value.
And the core value generating unit 103 is configured to perform weighting according to the second scores corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values.
And a result value generating unit 104, configured to divide the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value.
And a grade generating unit 105, configured to generate a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value, and a preset gas channeling risk grade table.
The application provides a method and a system for evaluating risk of gas channeling, which comprises the following steps: carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate basic factors, gas channeling time influence parameters of the basic factors and importance values of the basic factors; weighting according to the obtained first values corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value; weighting according to the second values corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values; dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value; and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table. According to the method and the device, a gas channeling risk evaluation model is established through the pre-estimated value, the core value and the result value, so that the evaluation on the gas channeling risk level is realized, and the beneficial effect of quickly and efficiently evaluating the gas channeling risk size under the current condition is achieved.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The principle and the implementation mode of the invention are explained by applying specific embodiments in the invention, and the description of the embodiments is only used for helping to understand the method and the core idea of the invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there may be variations in the specific embodiments and the application scope, and in summary, the content of the present specification should not be construed as a limitation to the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A method for evaluating a risk of gas channeling, comprising:
carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate basic factors, gas channeling time influence parameters of the basic factors and importance values of the basic factors; wherein the basic factors comprise injection-production relationship, gas injection speed and bottom water strength;
Weighting and calculating according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value;
weighting and calculating according to the second scores corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values;
dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value;
generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the pre-estimated value, the core value, the result value and a preset gas channeling risk grade table, and specifically comprising the following steps:
acquiring a third score according to the result value and a preset third score table;
integrating the pre-estimated value, the core value and the third value to generate a risk value;
and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the risk value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table.
2. The method for evaluating the risk of gas channeling according to claim 1, wherein the step of performing weighting and calculation according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weighting coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value comprises:
acquiring each first score according to each gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and a preset first score table;
Weighting and calculating according to the first scores and preset first weight coefficients to generate the pre-estimated value; each of the first weight coefficients corresponds to each of the basic factors one to one.
3. The method for evaluating a risk of gas channeling according to claim 1, wherein the generating of the core value by performing weighting and calculation according to the second score corresponding to each of the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients includes:
acquiring each second score according to the importance value of each basic factor and a preset second score table;
weighting and calculating according to the second scores and preset second weight coefficients to generate the core values; each of the second weight coefficients corresponds to each of the basic factors one to one.
4. The method for risk of gas breakthrough evaluation according to claim 1, wherein the gas breakthrough time-affecting parameters include: significance value.
5. The method for evaluating the risk of gas channeling according to claim 4, wherein the step of performing weighting and calculation according to the obtained first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate a pre-estimated value comprises the steps of:
Correcting the acquired saliency values to generate corrected saliency values;
acquiring each first score according to each corrected significance value and a preset first score table;
and carrying out weighting and calculation according to the first scores and preset first weight coefficients to generate the pre-estimated value.
6. The method of evaluating a risk of gas channeling according to claim 5, wherein the formula for correcting the significance value is as follows:
S′ i ＝1-S i
wherein i is the ith basic factor, S i Is the ith basic factorOf significance, S' i For the significance value of the ith basic factor after correction, i is a positive integer.
7. The method for evaluating a risk of gas channeling according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formula of the estimated value is as follows:
where P is the estimate, i is the ith fundamental factor, T i A first score, a, corresponding to the gas channeling time influencing parameter of the ith basic factor i And the first weight coefficient is a first weight coefficient corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameter of the ith basic factor, wherein i is a positive integer.
8. The method for evaluating a risk of gas channeling according to claim 1, wherein a calculation formula for the core value is as follows:
wherein I is the core value, I is the ith basic factor, J i A second score corresponding to the importance value of the ith basic factor, b i And the second weight coefficient is corresponding to the gas importance value of the ith basic factor, and i is a positive integer.
9. A gas channeling risk assessment system, comprising:
the analysis unit is used for carrying out big data analysis on the obtained production data by using an optimal scale regression method to generate each basic factor, a gas channeling time influence parameter of each basic factor and an importance value of each basic factor; wherein the basic factors comprise injection-production relationship, gas injection speed and bottom water strength;
the estimated value generating unit is used for weighting and calculating according to the acquired first scores corresponding to the gas channeling time influence parameters and preset first weight coefficients to generate estimated values;
the core value generating unit is used for weighting and calculating according to the second scores corresponding to the acquired importance values and preset second weight coefficients to generate core values;
the result value generating unit is used for dividing the obtained production gas-oil ratio by a preset threshold value to generate a result value;
the level generating unit is configured to generate a gas channeling risk level according to the estimated value, the core value, the result value, and a preset gas channeling risk level table, and specifically includes:
Acquiring a third score according to the result value and a preset third score table;
integrating the estimated value, the core value and the third value to generate a risk value;
and generating a gas channeling risk grade according to the risk value and a preset gas channeling danger grade table.
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