CN109388847B - Comprehensive selection method for runoff change attribution technology - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a runoff change attribution technology comprehensive selection method, which comprises the following steps: establishing a hydrological meteorological database of a target area; analyzing the time sequence in sections, and determining the change characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff; constructing a judgment set, and selecting the most suitable runoff change attribution technology; runoff change attributed to analytical calculations. According to the method, the environmental change characteristics are analyzed according to the hydrological meteorological database of the target area, the technology which is most suitable for the target area is selected to analyze the attribution of the runoff change based on the three types of existing runoff change attribution technologies, and the environmental change characteristics of the target area are fully considered in the obtained result.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a runoff evolution attribution technology in the field of hydraulic engineering, in particular to a comprehensive selection method of a runoff change attribution technology.
Background
Runoff is one of the most important components in hydrologic cycle, and under the current change environment, understanding the generation, change and the potential reason of change of runoff has important meaning to carry out efficient water resource management. The runoff process is closely related to factors such as atmospheric circulation, climate change, underlying surfaces in a drainage basin, human social economy and the like, and the runoff change is a comprehensive result of combined action and interweaving influence of the factors, so that the characteristics of complexity, variability and difficulty in prediction are displayed. Along with the rapid growth of population, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is increasingly violent, and factors such as climate change, human activities and the like respectively have influence on runoff, so that the method plays a vital role in predicting the future water resource situation and making a decision on water resource management adaptability.
The attribution technology of the runoff evolution aims at quantitatively analyzing the cause of the runoff space-time change, provides a basis for predicting future runoff and making adaptive countermeasures for water resource management, and makes targeted and convenient-to-operate adaptive regulation and control decisions aiming at different causes and influence degrees. At present, from the results of the current literature, the current attribution technology can be summarized into three types, namely an analytic method, a conceptual method and a hydrological simulation method, and has different advantages and disadvantages and advanced assumptions, so that the adaptability of the method is different according to different research areas with different climatic change and human activity characteristics.
Disclosure of Invention
The purpose of the invention is as follows: the comprehensive selection method of the runoff change attribution technology fully considers the climate change and the human activity characteristics, and the obtained attribution result is more accurate and is suitable for a research area.
The technical scheme is as follows: a runoff change attribution technology comprehensive selection method comprises the following steps:
step (1), establishing a target area hydrological meteorological database;
step (2) time sequence segmentation analysis is carried out, and the change characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff are determined;
constructing a judgment set, and selecting the most suitable runoff change attribution technology;
and (4) attributing and calculating runoff change.
In the step (1), a surface average potential evapotranspiration and surface average precipitation database is established according to meteorological data of a meteorological station in the target area, and a runoff database is established according to the meteorological data of the meteorological station.
In the step (2), time series is analyzed in a segmented mode, and the change characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period are determined. The initial long-time sequence is often formed by combining multiple segments of medium-short time sequences with obvious variation characteristics, and the overall time evolution law is not obvious. Therefore, on the basis of the Pettitt mutation test and the Mann-Kendall trend test, the initial time sequence is segmented according to runoff change, and the change characteristics of rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period are determined.
In step 3, climate change and human activity characteristics of the target area are analyzed, a judgment set is constructed, and the most suitable runoff change attribution technology of three types including an analytic method, a conceptual method and a hydrological simulation method is selected according to a judgment result.
And in the step 4, attributing analysis and calculation on the runoff change of the target area according to the selected runoff change attribution technology.
The invention achieves the following beneficial effects: the measured data of the regional meteorological hydrological station are researched, the average values of drainage basin precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff surface are calculated, and a hydrological meteorological database is established; dividing sub-periods according to the runoff time course evolution rule, and analyzing the characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff sequence change in each period; and constructing a judgment set according to the characteristics of the three types of attribution technologies, and selecting the most appropriate attribution method for comprehensive attribution analysis and calculation based on the characteristic analysis judgment. The invention starts from the applicability of the attribution technology, fully considers the climate change and the human activity characteristics of the research area, comprehensively selects the existing attribution technology, and obtains more accurate attribution results which are suitable for the research area.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a Thiessen polygon construction;
fig. 3 is a flow chart of a study period timesharing method.
Detailed Description
The technical solution of the present invention is further described in detail by embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, a runoff change attribution technology comprehensive selection method comprises the following steps:
and step 11, collecting the day-by-day data of the target area meteorological station and the hydrological station. Calculating the potential evapotranspiration amount of each meteorological site by adopting a Penman formula:
in the formula, E p Is wide free water surface evaporation capacity (also called latent evaporation capacity) (mm.d) -1 ) Therefore, G is taken to be 0; g is soil heat flux density (MJ. m) -2 ·d -1 )，G＝0.1[T i -(T i-1 +T i-2 +T i-3 )/3](T i Mean air temperature (deg.C) for the day of calculation; t is a unit of i-1 ,T i-2 ,T i-3 Respectively calculating the average temperature (DEG C) of the days before the month; Δ represents the slope (KP) of the saturated water vapor pressure-temperature curve a ·℃ -1 ) (ii) a Gamma is hygrometer constant (KP) a ·℃ -1 ) (ii) a Lambda is water vaporization latent heat (MJ kg) -1 )；R n For net radiation (MJ. m) -2 d -1 )；E a Air drying power;
(1) calculating coefficients:
λ＝2.501-0.002361T (2)
wherein T is an average air temperature (DEG C); e.g. of the type a Is saturated water vapor pressure (KP) a )；T max The maximum air temperature (DEG C); t is min The lowest air temperature (DEG C); e.g. of a cylinder 0 When (T) is TSaturated vapor pressure (KP) a )；C P Constant temperature heat capacity, 1.103X 10 -3 MJ/kg; ε is the weight ratio of water vapor to dry air, 0.622; p is the air pressure at elevation H (KP) a ) (ii) a H is the meteorological station elevation (m), and the unit of each parameter is shown in brackets.
(2) Calculating the solar net radiation R n ：
R n ＝R ns -R nl (8)
R ns ＝(1-a)R s (9)
In the formula, R ns Is net short wave radiation (MJ. m) -2 d -1 )；R nl Is net long wave radiation (MJ.m) -2 d -1 )；R s Is short wave radiation (MJ.m) -2 d -1 ) (ii) a a is the reflectivity, 0.23; r a As the total solar radiation (MJ. m) -2 d -1 )；a s The ratio of the outside air radiation reaching the ground in cloudy days; a is s +b s The ratio of the outer space radiation reaching the ground in sunny days; n is the maximum astronomical hours of sunshine (h); n is the number of sunshine hours per day (h); omega s Is the sunset angle (rad); j is the number of days in the year;
the latitude (rad) of the meteorological station; delta is the declination angle (rad) of the sun; d r Is the relative distance of the day and the ground; e.g. of the type d Is the actual water vapor pressure (KP) a )；RH mean Mean relative humidity (%); t is kx Maximum absolute air temperature, T kx ＝T max +273；T kn Is the lowest absolute air temperature, T kn ＝T min +273. Wherein a is s And b s Is generally given by the size of s ＝0.25，a s +b s Equal to 0.75, but due to different regions a s And b s Is not identical, and a s And b s The value of (a) has a large influence on the finally calculated water surface evaporation result, so that reference is made to a weather station having actually measured solar radiation in the area, according to which
Determining a of each weather station according to formula and solar radiation observation value, sunshine hours observation value and latitude of the weather station s And b s Size of target area a s And b s Is the average value of the reference weather station in the area.
(3) Calculation of air drying forceE a ：
E a ＝10·(0.2+0.066u 2 )·(e a -e d ) (19)
In the formula of U 2 A wind speed (m.s) at a height of 2m -1 )；U z The average wind speed (m · s) is measured at the measurement point -1 ) (ii) a Z is the wind speed measurement height (m) and the unit of the parameter is in parentheses.
Step 12, constructing a Thiessen polygon according to the position point data of each meteorological station:
(1) and connecting all adjacent meteorological sites to construct a triangular network.
(2) And finding out all triangles adjacent to each meteorological site according to the meteorological site, and calculating the circle center (the intersection point of the vertical bisectors of the three sides) of the circumscribed circle of each triangle.
(3) And sequentially connecting the centers of the circumscribed circles in a clockwise (or anticlockwise) direction to obtain the Thiessen polygon. For the meteorological station data at the edge of the triangular net, a connecting line of the centers of the circumscribed circles and the outline can form a Thiessen polygon together through intersecting the perpendicular bisector and the outline.
And step 13, calculating the average potential evapotranspiration amount of the noodles and the average precipitation amount of the noodles. And (3) calculating a surface average meteorological factor value by using a weighted average method according to the meteorological factor values (such as potential evapotranspiration amount and precipitation amount) of each station by considering that the area covered by the Thiessen polygon is the range controlled by the meteorological station according to the fact that each meteorological station falls in one Thiessen polygon respectively:
in the formula, C p The surface average value of the p meteorological factor is taken; a is the total area; a. the q The area of a Thiessen polygon corresponding to the qth meteorological station; c pq The value of the qth weather station for the pth weather factor; and s is the number of meteorological stations in the flow field.
Step 14, establishing a runoff database according to the hydrological station data. The entire watershed is divided into a plurality of non-overlapping tiles according to the control range of a representative hydrological station within the watershed. Assuming that the number of the selected areas in the flow field is N, a hydrological station is respectively arranged at the outlet of each area, and the measured runoff depth of each area is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
And 2, performing time sequence segmentation analysis to determine the change characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period. The initial long-time sequence is often formed by combining multiple segments of medium-short time sequences with obvious variation characteristics, and the overall time evolution law is not obvious. Therefore, on the basis of Pettitt mutation test and Mann-Kendall trend test, the initial time sequence is segmented according to runoff change, and the change characteristics of rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period are determined. And carrying out multilevel segmentation on the time sequence. Taking the initial time sequence as a primary time sequence, performing Pettitt mutation test to find primary mutation pointsThe initial time series is then divided into two secondary time series before and after the mutation point. By analogy, continuously searching mutation points of the step-by-step time sequence by using a Pettitt method, and segmenting the time sequence at the mutation points. Significance test by Mann-Kendall trend analysis when a time sequence has significant trend change characteristics, or sequence length L is less than a given length threshold L m Or the number of sequential levels C is greater than a given level threshold C m Then the time series will not be segmented. For time series X, the length of the series is T, and the Pettitt test statistic U at the time T is constructed t,T ：
In the formula x d And x c For elements of the time series X, the quantity U is recorded t,N Has a maximum value of k τ ＝max{U t,T The corresponding time tau is the mutation point, and the significance level P test formula is as follows:
P＝2exp{-6(k τ ) 2 /(T 3 +T 2 )}
for time series X, Mann-Kendall test statistics S and Z were constructed c ：
When Z is c When > 0, it indicates that the time series X has an increasing tendency with time, Z c When < 0, it indicates that the time series X has a decreasing tendency with time, when | Z c |＞Z 1-α/2 When Z is 1-α/2 Is standard normal dispersion, alpha is significance level, which shows that the time series variation trend has significant statistical significance. And analyzing the change trends of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period by adopting a Mann-Kendall test.
And 3, analyzing the climate change and human activity characteristics of the target area, constructing a judgment set, and selecting the most suitable runoff change attribution technology according to a judgment result. The following judgment indexes are constructed for judgment:
(1) is there a significant change in runoff during the study period? I.e. whether the study period can be divided into m segments (m ≧ 1) with statistically significant changes in step 2? If yes, the next judgment is carried out; otherwise, the runoff of the target research area does not change significantly and cannot be attributed.
(2) Is there a (quasi) natural phase in the study period? And (3) taking the 1 st time period after the research period is divided in the step (2), and analyzing the change characteristics of runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration sequences in the 1 st time period by adopting Mann-Kendall test in the step (2). Researching runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration sequence trend changes in the 1 st period to judge whether a (quasi) natural period exists: (a) if the runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration sequences have no statistically significant trend change, the 1 st period is determined as a natural period; (b) if the runoff sequence has significant trend changes in a significant statistical sense, the precipitation sequence has significant trend changes consistent with the runoff, and the potential evapotranspiration sequence has significant trend changes opposite to the runoff, the 1 st period is determined as a quasi-natural period; (c) otherwise, the study period was deemed to be absent from (quasi-) natural phase. According to the judgment, if the natural period or the quasi-natural period exists in the research period, the runoff change attribution technologies of an analytic method, a conceptual method and a hydrological simulation method are all suitable, and the next judgment is carried out; if no natural and quasi-natural phases are present during the study period, a conceptual approach is selected.
(3) Is the change in impounded water within the flow field, and is the change in deep groundwater negligible? The three types of runoff change attribution technologies are all suitable, and the next judgment is carried out; and if not, selecting a hydrological simulation method to perform runoff evolution attribution analysis.
(4) Is the target area dominated by direct human activity or by indirect human activity? The direct human activities refer to human activities which directly act on runoff, such as water taking for producing and living ecology, water storage and drainage of a reservoir, water diversion and regulation and the like, and can influence the runoff in a watershed once being implemented in a short time, and are characterized by instantaneity; the indirect human activities refer to felling/returning to farmland, wetland degradation/ecological restoration, land utilization change and the like, and further indirectly influence the human activities of runoff in the watershed by influencing other items of water balance in the watershed. And for a time interval i after the (quasi) reference period, if the runoff sequence has statistically significant trend changes, and the precipitation and/or evapotranspiration sequence does not exist, determining that the direct human activities occur in the watershed. Further, if the runoff is increased, human activities such as upstream reservoir flood discharge, drainage outside the watershed and the like are determined to occur; if the runoff is reduced, human activities such as upstream reservoir water storage, water transfer outside the flow area, increase of water taking for ecological production and living and the like are determined to occur. For a time interval i after the (quasi) benchmark period, if the runoff does not have a statistically significant variation trend, and the precipitation and/or evapotranspiration sequences exist, the runoff area can still be determined to have direct human activities, and the influence of the activities compensates the runoff variation. For a period i after the (quasi-) benchmarking period, indirect human activity may be obtained from land use material within the watershed. When the target area is dominated by direct human activities, attribution analysis is carried out on runoff change by adopting a hydrological simulation method; when the target area is dominated by indirect human activities, three attribution technologies, namely an analytic method, a conceptual method and a hydrological simulation method, can be used for the runoff change attribution analysis.
And 4, comprehensively judging according to the step 3, adopting the most suitable runoff change attribution technology according to the climate change and the human activity characteristics, and carrying out attribution analysis and calculation on the runoff change of the target area.
For time period i, the analytical method climate elasticity attribution technique may be described as:
in the formula,. DELTA.R C,i The influence of climate change on runoff in the time period i, R is runoff, C f Is the f-th meteorological factor, N C Is the number of meteorological factors, Δ C f,i Time periods i and i-1, meteorological factorsC f The difference value of (a) to (b),
is the meteorological factor C at time interval i f The elastic coefficient of (c) can be calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
and
runoff R and meteorological factor C for time period i f Mean value of ∈ of f,i Can be determined by the following multiple linear regression equation:
in the formula, R yi And C f,yi In a time period i, the annual runoff R and the meteorological factor C f The value is obtained.
Conceptual attribution methods attribution techniques based on the Budyko assumption can be described as:
a water-heat coupling balance equation based on mathematical derivation can be used for expressing a long-term water-heat balance relation of a basin under certain climatic and underlying surface conditions, and the expression is as follows:
wherein P is the average annual precipitation per year, E 0 The average annual potential evapotranspiration of a plurality of years is shown as E, and the average annual actual evapotranspiration of a plurality of years is shown as n. The application premise of the formula is that: firstly, the application basin is a closed basin (namely, the ground watershed and the underground watershed are overlapped), and the change of the average basin water storage amount for many years can be ignored.
On a scale averaged over many years, the basin water balance equation is expressed as R ═ P-E, and then the runoff can be expressed as R ═ f (P, E) 0 N), and thus the runoff change, can be expressed in fully differential form as:
the concept of the climate elastic coefficient is extended to define the elastic coefficient of the underlying surface of the runoff, so that the change of the runoff can be expressed in the following form:
in the formula, epsilon p 、ε E0 、ε n Are respectively P, E 0 N, the expression is as follows:
let the drought coefficient phi equal to E 0 P, then the 3 elastic coefficients can be calculated using the hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation:
p, E can be obtained according to the three parameters 0 N change caused by change of the flow delta R p 、
ΔR n ：
In the formula, Δ P and Δ E 0 And deltan is the average precipitation amount of the time interval i, the potential evaporation amount and the variation of the parameter n relative to the time interval i-1 respectively.
For time period i, the hydrologic simulation method can be expressed as:
keeping the underlying surface condition of the stage i-1 unchanged, and inputting the meteorological data of the stage i into the SWAT model, the influence of the climate change of the stage i on the runoff can be expressed as:
ΔR C,i ＝R(L i-1 ,C i )-R(L i-1 ,C i-1 ) (37)
in the formula,. DELTA.R C,i Runoff change caused by climate change of the stage i; l is a radical of an alcohol i-1 For stage i-1 land use data, C i-1 And C i The meteorological data of the stage i-1 and the stage i respectively; r (L) i-1 ,C i ) And R (L) i-1 ,C i-1 ) And (3) respectively representing the runoff obtained by the weather data of the stage i and the stage i-1 through SWAT simulation without changing the input of the land utilization data of the fixed stage i-1.
And (3) keeping the climate condition of the stage i unchanged, and simulating the change of the runoff before and after the change of the land use to represent the influence of the land use of the stage i on the runoff:
ΔR L,i ＝R(L i ,C i )-R(L i-1 ,C i ) (38)
in the formula,. DELTA.R L,i The runoff change caused by the land utilization change of the stage i, namely the influence of indirect human activities on the runoff; r (L) i ,C i ) And R (L) i-1 ,C i ) And (3) respectively representing the runoff obtained by the weather data input invariance of the fixed stage i and respectively adopting the land utilization data of the stage i and the stage i-1 through SWAT simulation.
After the influence of indirect human activities such as climate change and underlying surface change on runoff is analyzed quantitatively, the remaining runoff change can be approximately summarized to direct human activities such as domestic production in a basin, diversion and water regulation outside the basin and the like:
ΔR D,i ＝ΔR T,i -ΔR C,i -ΔR L,i ＝R O,i -R(L i ,C i ) (39)
in the formula,. DELTA.R D,i For stage i runoff changes caused by direct human activity, Δ R T,i For total change in runoff in stage i, R O,i Runoff was measured for stage i.
Claims (4)
1. A runoff change attribution technology comprehensive selection method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step (1), establishing a hydrological meteorological database of a target area;
step (2) time sequence subsection analysis is carried out, and the change characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff are determined;
constructing a judgment set, and selecting the most suitable runoff change attribution technology, specifically:
analyzing the climate change and human activity characteristics of the target area, constructing a judgment set, selecting the most suitable runoff change attribution technology according to the judgment result, constructing the following judgment indexes, and judging:
in the step (31), whether the runoff is significantly changed or not in the research period, namely whether the research period can be divided into m sections with statistically significant changes in the step (2) or not, wherein m is more than or equal to 1, and if yes, the next judgment is carried out; otherwise, the runoff of the target research area is not changed remarkably and cannot be attributed;
step (32) researching whether a quasi-natural period exists in the period, taking the 1 st period after the research period is divided in the step (2), and analyzing the change characteristics of runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration sequences in the 1 st period by adopting Mann-Kendall inspection in the step (2); researching runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration sequence trend changes in the 1 st period to judge whether a quasi-natural period exists: (a) if the runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration sequences have no statistically significant trend changes, the 1 st period is determined as the natural period; (b) if the runoff sequence has significant trend changes in a significant statistical sense, the precipitation sequence has significant trend changes consistent with the runoff, and the potential evapotranspiration sequence has significant trend changes opposite to the runoff, the 1 st period is determined as a quasi-natural period; (c) otherwise, determining that the quasi-natural period does not exist in the research period, and if the natural period or the quasi-natural period exists in the research period according to the judgment, then the runoff change attribution technologies of an analytic method, a conceptual method and a hydrological simulation method are all suitable, and carrying out the next judgment; selecting a conceptual approach if no natural and quasi-natural phases are present during the study period;
step (33) whether the change of the water stored in the drainage basin and the change of the deep groundwater are ignored or not is judged, if yes, the three types of runoff change attribution technologies are all suitable, and the next judgment is carried out; if not, selecting a hydrological simulation method to perform runoff evolution attribution analysis;
step (34) for a time interval i after the quasi-reference period, if the runoff sequence has statistically significant trend changes and the precipitation and/or evapotranspiration sequence does not exist, the watershed has direct human activities; further, if the runoff is increased, the flood discharge of an upstream reservoir and the human activities of diversion outside the watershed occur; if the runoff is reduced, the water storage of an upstream reservoir, the water transfer outside a flow area and the water taking of ecological production and living conditions are performed to increase human activities; for a time interval i after the quasi-benchmark period, if the runoff does not have a statistically significant change trend and precipitation or evapotranspiration sequences exist, the fact that direct human activities occur in the watershed is still judged, and the influence of the activities compensates for runoff changes; for a time period i after the quasi-baseline period, indirect human activity is obtained from land use data within the watershed; when the target area is dominated by direct human activities, attribution analysis is carried out on runoff change by adopting a hydrological simulation method; when the target area is dominated by indirect human activities, three attribution technologies, namely an analytic method, a conceptual method and a hydrological simulation method, are used for attribution analysis of runoff change;
and (4) attributing and calculating runoff change.
2. The runoff change attribution technology comprehensive selection method according to claim 1, wherein:
the method comprises the following steps of (1) establishing a surface average potential evapotranspiration and surface average precipitation database according to meteorological station meteorological data in a target area, and establishing a runoff database according to the meteorological station data, wherein the method specifically comprises the following substeps:
collecting the data of target area weather stations and hydrological stations day by day, and calculating the potential evapotranspiration amount of each weather station by adopting a Penman formula:
in the formula, E p The evaporation capacity of the wide free water surface is also called as potential evaporation capacity, so that G is taken to be 0; g is soil heat flux density, G is 0.1[ T [ ] i -(T i-1 +T i-2 +T i-3 )/3]，T i Calculating the average temperature of the day; t is a unit of i-1 ,T i-2 ,T i-3 Respectively calculating the average temperature of 3 days before the adjacent months; Δ represents the slope of the saturated water vapor pressure-temperature curve; gamma is a hygrometer constant; lambda is latent heat of water vaporization; r n Is the net radiation; e a Air drying power;
step (111) of calculating a coefficient:
λ＝2.501-0.002361T
wherein T is the average air temperature; e.g. of the type a Saturated water vapor pressure; t is max The highest air temperature; t is min The lowest air temperature; e.g. of the type 0 (T) saturated vapor pressure when T is T; c P Constant temperature heat capacity, 1.103X 10 -3 MJ/kg; ε is the weight ratio of water vapor to dry air of 0.622; p is the air pressure at elevation H; h is the elevation of the meteorological station;
step (112) of calculating the solar net radiation R n ：
R n ＝R ns -R nl
R ns ＝(1-a)R s
In the formula, R ns Is net short wave radiation; r nl Is net long wave radiation; r is s Short wave radiation; a is the reflectivity, 0.23; r is a Is the total solar radiation; a is s The ratio of the outside air radiation reaching the ground in cloudy days; a is s +b s The ratio of the outer space radiation reaching the ground in sunny days; n is the maximum astronomical sunshine hours; n is the number of sunshine hours per day; omega s Is the sunset angle; j is the number of days in the year;
the latitude of the weather station; delta is declination angle of sun；d r Is the relative distance of the day and the ground; e.g. of the type d The actual water vapor pressure; RH (relative humidity) mean Is the average relative humidity; t is kx Maximum absolute air temperature, T kx ＝T max +273；T kn Is the lowest absolute air temperature, T kn ＝T min + 273; wherein a is s And b s Is given by the size of s ＝0.25，a s +b s 0.75, but due to different region a s And b s Is not the same, and a s And b s The value of (a) has an influence on the finally calculated water surface evaporation result, so that a weather station with actually measured solar radiation in the reference area is needed, according to which
Determining a of each weather station according to formula and solar radiation observation value, sunshine hours observation value and latitude of the weather station s And b s Size of (1), target area a s And b s The value of (a) is the average value of reference weather stations in the area;
step (113) of calculating the air drying force E a ：
E a ＝10·(0.2+0.066U 2 )·(e a -e d )
In the formula of U 2 The wind speed at the height of 2 m; u shape z The average wind speed of the measuring points is taken; z is the wind speed measurement height; e.g. of the type a Saturated water vapor pressure; e.g. of a cylinder d The actual water vapor pressure;
and (12) constructing a Thiessen polygon according to the position point data of each meteorological station: the method comprises the following specific steps:
step (121) connecting all adjacent meteorological sites to construct a triangular net;
step (123) finding out all triangles adjacent to each meteorological site according to the meteorological site, and calculating the circle center position of a circumscribed circle of each triangle;
sequentially connecting the centers of the circumscribed circles in a clockwise or anticlockwise direction to obtain a Thiessen polygon; for meteorological station data at the edge of the triangular net, intersecting a vertical bisector with a figure outline, and forming a Thiessen polygon by a connecting line of the centers of circumscribed circles and the figure outline;
calculating the average potential evapotranspiration amount and the average precipitation amount of the surface, wherein each weather station is respectively in a Thiessen polygon, the area covered by the Thiessen polygon is considered as the range controlled by the weather station, and the average weather factor value of the surface is calculated by the weather factor value of each station by a weighted average method:
in the formula, C p The surface average value of the p meteorological factor is taken; a is the total area; a. the q The area of a Thiessen polygon corresponding to the qth meteorological station; c pq The value of the qth weather station for the pth weather factor; s is the number of meteorological stations in the current domain;
step (14) establishing a runoff database according to the hydrological station data, and dividing the whole watershed into a plurality of non-overlapping sections according to the control range of a representative hydrological station in the watershed; assuming that the number of the selected areas in the flow field is N, a hydrological station is respectively arranged at the outlet of each area, and the measured runoff depth of each area is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
3. The runoff change attribution technology comprehensive selection method according to claim 1, wherein: the step (2) is specifically as follows:
analyzing the time sequence in sections to determine the change characteristics of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period; the initial long-time sequence is usually formed by combining a plurality of sections of medium-short time sequences with obvious change characteristics, and the overall time course evolution rule is not obvious, so that the initial time sequence is segmented according to runoff change on the basis of Pettitt mutation test and Mann-Kendall trend test, and the change characteristics of rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period are determined; carrying out multilevel segmentation on the time sequence, taking the initial time sequence as a first-level time sequence, carrying out Pettitt mutation inspection to find a first-level mutation point, dividing the initial time sequence into two second-level time sequences before and after the mutation point, repeating the steps, continuously searching the mutation point of the step-by-step time sequence by using a Pettitt method, and segmenting the time sequence at the mutation point; significance test by Mann-Kendall trend analysis when a time sequence has significant trend change characteristics, or sequence length L is less than a given length threshold L m Or the number of sequential levels C is greater than a given level threshold C m Then the time series will not be segmented; for a time sequence X with a sequence length of T, constructing a Pettitt test statistic U at time T t,T ：
In the formula x d And x c For elements of time series X, recording statistic U t,N Maximum value of k τ ＝max{U t,T The corresponding time tau is the mutation point, and the significance level P test formula is as follows:
P＝2exp{-6(k τ ) 2 /(T 3 +T 2 )}
for time series X, Mann-Kendall test statistics S and Z were constructed c ：
When Z is c When > 0, it indicates that the time series X has an increasing tendency with time, Z c When < 0, it indicates that the time series X has a decreasing tendency with time, when | Z c |＞Z 1-α/2 When Z is above 1-α/2 The standard normal deviation is obtained, alpha is a significance level, and the statistical significance of the time series variation trend is shown to be significant; and analyzing the change trends of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and runoff in each time period by adopting a Mann-Kendall test.
4. The runoff change attribution technology comprehensive selection method according to claim 1, wherein: the step (4) comprises the following specific steps:
comprehensively judging according to the step (1), and adopting the most suitable runoff change attribution technology to analyze and calculate the runoff change attribution of the target area according to the climate change and the human activity characteristics;
for time period i, the analytical method climatic elasticity attribution technique is described as:
in the formula,. DELTA.R C,i In time period i, influence of climate change on runoff, R is runoff, C f Is the f-th meteorological factor, N C Is the number of meteorological factors, Δ C f,i In time periods i and i-1, meteorological factor C f The difference value of (a) to (b),
meteorological factor C for time period i f The elastic coefficient of (d) is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
and
runoff R and meteorological factor C for time period i f Mean value of ∈ of f,i The calibration is carried out by the following multiple linear regression formula:
in the formula, R yi And C f,yi In a time period i, the annual runoff R and the meteorological factor C f A value;
the conceptual attribution method is described based on an attribution technique of the Budyko hypothesis as follows:
a mathematically derived hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation can be used to represent the long-term hydrothermal equilibrium relationship of a basin under specific climatic and underlying conditions, with the expression:
wherein P is the average annual precipitation per year, E 0 The average annual potential evaporation capacity of a plurality of years, E is the average annual actual evaporation capacity of the plurality of years, and n is an underlying surface parameter; the application premise of the formula is as follows: application flowThe water storage area is a closed drainage area, namely, the water storage capacity of the ground watershed and the water storage capacity of the underground watershed are superposed for years, and the change of the average drainage area water storage capacity is ignored;
on a scale averaged over many years, the basin water balance equation is expressed as R ═ P-E, and then the runoff is expressed as R ═ f (P, E) 0 N), and further the runoff change is expressed in fully differential form as:
the concept of the climate elastic coefficient is extended to define the underlying surface elastic coefficient of runoff, so that the change in runoff is expressed in the form:
in the formula, epsilon p 、
ε n Are respectively P, E 0 、 n The expression of the elastic coefficient of (b) is as follows:
let the drought coefficient phi equal to E 0 P, then the 3 elastic coefficients are calculated using the hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation:
p, E are respectively obtained according to the three parameters 0 、 n Change induced runoff change Δ R p 、
ΔR n ：
In the formula, Δ P, Δ E 0 And delta n is the average precipitation amount of the time interval i, the potential evaporation amount and the variable quantity of the parameter n relative to the time interval i-1 respectively;
for time period i, the hydrological simulation method is expressed as:
keeping the underlying surface condition of the stage i-1 unchanged, inputting meteorological data of the stage i into a SWAT model, and expressing the influence of the climate change of the stage i on runoff as follows:
ΔR C,i ＝R(L i-1 ,C i )-R(L i-1 ,C i-1 )
in the formula,. DELTA.R C,i For phase i climate changeRunoff changes caused by chemolysis; l is i-1 For stage i-1 land use data, C i-1 And C i The meteorological data of the stage i-1 and the stage i respectively; r (L) i-1 ,C i ) And R (L) i-1 ,C i-1 ) Respectively representing the unchanged input of land utilization data of the fixed stage i-1, and obtaining runoff through SWAT simulation by respectively adopting meteorological data of the stage i and the stage i-1;
keeping the climate condition of the stage i unchanged, simulating the change of the runoff before and after the change of the land use to represent the influence of the land use of the stage i on the runoff:
ΔR L,i ＝R(L i ,C i )-R(L i-1 ,C i )
in the formula,. DELTA.R L,i The runoff change caused by the land utilization change of the stage i, namely the influence of indirect human activities on the runoff; r (L) i ,C i ) And R (L) i-1 ,C i ) Respectively representing the unchanged input of meteorological data of a fixed stage i, respectively adopting land utilization data of the stage i and the stage i-1, and obtaining runoff through SWAT simulation;
after the influence of indirect human activities such as climate change and underlying surface change on runoff is analyzed quantitatively, the remaining runoff change approximately induces the direct human activities of domestic production in the watershed and water diversion and water regulation outside the watershed:
ΔR D,i ＝ΔR T,i -ΔR C,i -ΔR L,i ＝R O,i -R(L i ,C i )
in the formula,. DELTA.R D,i For stage i runoff changes caused by direct human activity, Δ R T,i Total change of runoff for stage i, R O,i Runoff was measured for stage i.
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| CN110260774B (en) * | 2019-07-22 | 2022-03-08 | 安徽理工大学 | GNSS deformation information inspection and early warning method based on Pettitt algorithm |
| CN112766531B (en) * | 2019-11-06 | 2023-10-31 | 中国科学院国家空间科学中心 | Runoff prediction system and method based on satellite microwave observation data |
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| CN114462518B (en) * | 2022-01-24 | 2022-10-14 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Regional evapotranspiration change attribution analysis method considering multi-element spatial dependence |
| CN115169263B (en) * | 2022-07-19 | 2023-01-20 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Multi-time scale runoff change attribution analysis method based on TVGM-Budyko coupling model |
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