CN109377041A - A kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of two-phase evaluation methods about shipping business, comprising the following steps: S01, forms mass-election index set based on water transport system contained by shipping business, document combing and expert opinion, the iotave evaluation index of mass-election shipping business；S02, it is based on information content theoretical maximum, the method combined using R cluster and the coefficient of variation, the evaluation index after filtering out in mass-election index set constructs shipping business assessment indicator system；Wherein, shipping business assessment indicator system is divided into three levels, is followed successively by rule layer, factor layer and indicator layer；S03, the importance that evaluation index after sieve is judged using Information Entropy, and the correlation after sieving between evaluation index is judged using the relative coefficient between evaluation index after sieve；S04, it is based on shipping business assessment indicator system, shipping business is evaluated using catastrophe progression method.The utility model has the advantages that realizing the purpose for efficiently obtaining evaluation conclusion while not reducing evaluation precision, with calculation amount few as far as possible.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of evaluation methods to belong to more particularly to a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business
Field is evaluated in shipping.
Background technique
Shipping business is the basic industry of national economy, and vicissitudes and the economic development of country are closely related, accurate to close
Reason ground evaluation shipping business is one of the hot issue of current shipping research.Shipping business refers to including port service industry, Shipping
The synthesis water transport system of industry and the derivative industry of shipping.
Shipping business is efficiently precisely evaluated, the current situation and trend of shipping business can be correctly recognized, sufficiently analyze it
Advantages for development and disadvantage provide reference for shipping business Developing Decision.
Current shipping business evaluation study be faced with index system is huge, data it is difficult obtain, index weights determine lack visitor
The problems such as property seen.Current shipping business evaluation method can be divided into two classes: 1) subjectivity based on expert and author selects and establishes and refer to
The case where on the one hand mark system can omit important indicator, on the other hand reflect information redundancy there is also index.2) pass through data packet
The objective methods such as network method, Shannon fuzzy entropy determine index weights, there is also data are depended on unduly, easily ignore that index is practical to be contained
The problem of justice.
Summary of the invention
It is a primary object of the present invention to overcome deficiency in the prior art, provide a kind of two-stage about shipping business
Evaluation method realizes the purpose that evaluation conclusion is efficiently obtained while not reducing evaluation precision, with calculation amount few as far as possible.
In order to achieve the above object, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is that:
A kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business, comprising the following steps:
S01, referred to based on water transport system contained by shipping business, document combing and expert opinion, the iotave evaluation of mass-election shipping business
Mark forms mass-election index set；
S02, it is based on information content theoretical maximum, the method combined using R cluster and the coefficient of variation, from mass-election index set
In filter out after evaluation index, construct shipping business assessment indicator system；
Wherein, shipping business assessment indicator system is divided into three levels, is followed successively by rule layer, factor layer and indicator layer；Criterion
Stratose goes out water transport system contained by shipping business, and factor layer lists several factors of evaluation corresponding to different water transport systems, index stratose
If evaluation index after dry screen corresponding to different evaluation factor out；
S03, the importance that evaluation index after sieve is judged using Information Entropy, and utilize the correlation system between evaluation index after sieve
Correlation after number judgement sieve between evaluation index；
S04, it is based on shipping business assessment indicator system, shipping business is evaluated using catastrophe progression method.
The present invention is further arranged to: water transport system contained by the shipping business in the step S01 includes port service industry, ship
Oceangoing ship transport service and the derivative industry of shipping.
The present invention is further arranged to: the step S02, specifically,
S02-1, R cluster is used to gather the iotave evaluation index for reflecting identical information for one kind, so that different classes of original
Beginning evaluation index reflects different information；
And K-W inspection is carried out to the cluster result of R cluster, complete the reasonable sex determination of clusters number；
S02-2, the coefficient of variation for calculating all kinds of iotave evaluation indexs, according to the maximum principle of the coefficient of variation to iotave evaluation
Index is screened, and selects the iotave evaluation index for the information content that can reflect 95% or more mass-election index set in total to evaluate after sieve
Index forms evaluation indice after sieve；
S02-3, to evaluation indice after sieve, carry out reasonable sex determination, output constructs reasonable shipping business evaluation index body
System.
The present invention is further arranged to: the reasonable sex determination of clusters number in the step S02-1, is by SPSS software
In K-W inspection completed；
Specific operation process is: it will belong in same category of data input SPSS software, and select K-W non-parametric test,
Obtain K-W test value Sig；Judge whether cluster result is reasonable by the way that whether Sig value is greater than 0.05；If R clusters every class result
Sig value be all larger than 0.05, then illustrate R cluster classification it is reasonable, be otherwise determined as unreasonable.
The present invention is further arranged to: the coefficient of variation of all kinds of iotave evaluation indexs of calculating in the step S02-2,
Calculation formula is,
Wherein, viFor the coefficient of variation of the i-th evaluation index, n is the number of objects being evaluated, xijFor the 1 evaluation index jth year
Standard value, m be year number,For the mean value of each time standard value of the i-th evaluation index,
The present invention is further arranged to: the reasonable sex determination of carry out in the step S02-3, specifically,
The variance that each iotave evaluation index is calculated according to the initial data of iotave evaluation index, obtains the side of mass-election index set
The sum of difference trShWith the sum of variance t of evaluation indice after sieverSs, pass through trSsWith trShRatio come reflect sieve after evaluation index
Collect information the contribution rate In, In=t to mass-election index setrSs/trSh；
Meet evaluation indice after the sieve of criterion, then it is assumed that building is reasonable；Wherein, criterion is with 30% or less
Sieve after evaluation index can reflect the information content of 95% or more mass-election index set, then it is assumed that index system establishment is reasonable.
The present invention is further arranged to: judging evaluation index importance after sieving, tool using Information Entropy in the step S03
Body is,
S03-1, the sample specific gravity P for calculating evaluation index after sieveij, the entropy e of evaluation index after sievei, evaluation index after sieve
Value of utility di；
Calculation formula is,
di=1-ei；
Wherein, xijFor the standard value in the 1 evaluation index jth year, n is the number of objects being evaluated, and m is year number；
S03-2, the weight w for calculating evaluation index after sievei；
Calculation formula is
S03-3, according to the size of the weight of evaluation index after sieve, after indicator layer is to sieve corresponding to same factor of evaluation
Evaluation index is ranked up；
S03-4, according to shipping business assessment indicator system, by evaluation index after all sieves corresponding to same factor of evaluation
Weight is added to obtain the weight of the factor of evaluation, and the weight of all factors of evaluation corresponding to same water transport system is carried out
Addition obtains the weight of the water transport system, and carries out factor of evaluation row according to the size of the weight of different evaluation factor in factor layer
Sequence carries out the sequence of water transport system according to the size of the weight of water transport system in rule layer.
The present invention is further arranged to: being judged in the step S03 using the relative coefficient between evaluation index after sieve
It is related specifically to calculate the pearson after similar sieve between evaluation index by SPSS software for correlation after sieve between evaluation index
Property coefficient, according to the correlation between evaluation index after the absolute value of pearson relative coefficient judgement sieve；
When the absolute value of pearson relative coefficient is 0.6 or more, then judge that the correlation after sieve between evaluation index is mutual
Benefit relationship；When the absolute value of pearson relative coefficient is less than 0.6, then judge that the correlation after sieve between evaluation index is non-mutual
Benefit relationship.
The present invention is further arranged to: evaluating using catastrophe progression method shipping business in the step S04, specifically
It is the judging result of the correlation after the sieve obtained according to step S03 after the importance of evaluation index and sieve between evaluation index, choosing
Calculation formula corresponding to mutation type is selected, the state variable of evaluation index after sieve is calculated, determines end-state value for mutation
Value, and the evaluation of estimate using this value of mutation as shipping business is completed to evaluate to shipping business.
The present invention is further arranged to: the mutation type includes that fold catastrophe, Cusp Catastrophe, Coattail catastrophe and butterfly are prominent
Becoming, calculation formula is respectively,
Fold catastrophe: potential function is G (x)=x3+ ax, normalizing formula are
Cusp Catastrophe: potential function is G (x)=x4+ax2+ bx, normalizing formula are
Coattail catastrophe: potential function is
Normalizing formula is
Butterfly is mutated: potential function is
Normalizing formula is
Wherein, x is state variable, and G (x) is the potential function of state variable x；The control that a, b, c, d are state variable x becomes
Amount, the sequence for controlling variable are ranked up according to the i.e. importance ranking result of judging result of the importance of evaluation index after sieve；
The judging result of correlation after sieve between evaluation index includes complementary relationship and incomplementarity relationship；
For evaluation index after the sieve of incomplementarity relationship, take the minimum value of state variable as end-state value x '；
For evaluation index after the sieve of complementary relationship, take the average value of state variable as end-state value x '.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the advantages that:
Shipping business two-phase evaluation method provided by the invention is based on information content theoretical maximum, building shipping business evaluation
Index system completes the evaluation of first stage；And Information Entropy and relative coefficient are used, and application catastrophe progression method is to shipping
Industry is evaluated, to complete the evaluation of second stage.Shipping business two-phase evaluation method provided by the invention compensates for current
In shipping business evaluation study index system lack objectivity deficiency, it can be achieved that while not reducing evaluation precision, with as far as possible
Few calculation amount efficiently obtains the purpose of evaluation conclusion.
Above content is only the general introduction of technical solution of the present invention, in order to better understand technological means of the invention, under
In conjunction with attached drawing, the invention will be further described in face.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart of the two-phase evaluation method about shipping business of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the shipping business mass-election index set that the embodiment of the present invention arranges；
Fig. 3 is the shipping business evaluation index initial data and standardization result of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is the embodiment of the present invention using SPSS software calculating cluster result schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 is index weights, sequence and the correlation results of evaluation index of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 6 is container flight number and navigation channel investment in fixed assets dependency diagram；
Fig. 7 is 2013~2017 Fujian Province's shipping business mutation value schematic diagrames.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawings of the specification, the present invention is further illustrated.
The present invention provides a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business, as shown in Figure 1, comprising the following steps:
S01, referred to based on water transport system contained by shipping business, document combing and expert opinion, the iotave evaluation of mass-election shipping business
Mark forms mass-election index set；
Wherein, water transport system contained by shipping business includes the derivative industry of port service industry, Shipping industry and shipping.
S02, it is based on information content theoretical maximum, the method combined using R cluster and the coefficient of variation, from mass-election index set
In filter out after evaluation index, construct shipping business assessment indicator system；
Wherein, shipping business assessment indicator system is divided into three levels, is followed successively by rule layer, factor layer and indicator layer；Criterion
Stratose goes out water transport system contained by shipping business, and factor layer lists several factors of evaluation corresponding to different water transport systems, index stratose
If evaluation index after dry screen corresponding to different evaluation factor out.
S03, the importance that evaluation index after sieve is judged using Information Entropy, and utilize the correlation system between evaluation index after sieve
Correlation after number judgement sieve between evaluation index.
S04, it is based on shipping business assessment indicator system, shipping business is evaluated using catastrophe progression method.
The step S02, specifically,
S02-1, R cluster is used to gather the iotave evaluation index for reflecting identical information for one kind, so that different classes of original
Beginning evaluation index reflects different information；And K-W inspection is carried out to the cluster result of R cluster, it completes clusters number reasonability and sentences
It is fixed.
The reasonable sex determination of clusters number therein is completed by the K-W inspection in SPSS software；Concrete operations
Cheng Shi: it will belong in same category of data input SPSS software, and select K-W non-parametric test, obtain K-W test value Sig；It is logical
Cross whether Sig value is greater than 0.05 to judge whether cluster result is reasonable；If the Sig value that R clusters every class result is all larger than 0.05,
Illustrate that the classification of R cluster is reasonable, is otherwise determined as unreasonable.
S02-2, the coefficient of variation for calculating all kinds of iotave evaluation indexs, according to the maximum principle of the coefficient of variation to iotave evaluation
Index is screened, and selects the iotave evaluation index for the information content that can reflect 95% or more mass-election index set in total to evaluate after sieve
Index forms evaluation indice after sieve.
The coefficient of variation therein for calculating all kinds of iotave evaluation indexs, its calculation formula is,
Wherein, viFor the coefficient of variation of the i-th evaluation index, n is the number of objects being evaluated, xijFor the 1 evaluation index jth year
Standard value, m be year number,For the mean value of each time standard value of the i-th evaluation index,
S02-3, to evaluation indice after sieve, carry out reasonable sex determination, output constructs reasonable shipping business evaluation index body
System.
It is therein to carry out reasonable sex determination, specifically,
The variance that each iotave evaluation index is calculated according to the initial data of iotave evaluation index, obtains the side of mass-election index set
The sum of difference trShWith the sum of variance t of evaluation indice after sieverSs, pass through trSsWith trShRatio come reflect sieve after evaluation index
Collect information the contribution rate In, In=t to mass-election index setrSs/trSh；
Meet evaluation indice after the sieve of criterion, then it is assumed that building is reasonable；Wherein, criterion is with 30% or less
Sieve after evaluation index can reflect the information content of 95% or more mass-election index set, then it is assumed that index system establishment is reasonable.
Evaluation index importance after using Information Entropy judgement sieve in the step S03, specifically,
S03-1, the sample specific gravity P for calculating evaluation index after sieveij, the entropy e of evaluation index after sievei, evaluation index after sieve
Value of utility di；
Calculation formula is,
di=1-ei；
Wherein, xijFor the standard value in the 1 evaluation index jth year, n is the number of objects being evaluated, and m is year number；
S03-2, the weight w for calculating evaluation index after sievei；
Calculation formula is
S03-3, according to the size of the weight of evaluation index after sieve, after indicator layer is to sieve corresponding to same factor of evaluation
Evaluation index is ranked up；
S03-4, according to shipping business assessment indicator system, by evaluation index after all sieves corresponding to same factor of evaluation
Weight is added to obtain the weight of the factor of evaluation, and the weight of all factors of evaluation corresponding to same water transport system is carried out
Addition obtains the weight of the water transport system, and carries out factor of evaluation row according to the size of the weight of different evaluation factor in factor layer
Sequence carries out the sequence of water transport system according to the size of the weight of water transport system in rule layer.
The correlation between evaluation index after the relative coefficient judgement sieve between evaluation index after sieve is utilized in the step S03
Property specifically calculates the pearson relative coefficient after similar sieve between evaluation index by SPSS software, according to pearson phase
The absolute value for closing property coefficient judges the correlation after sieving between evaluation index；When pearson relative coefficient absolute value be 0.6 with
On, then judge the correlation after sieving between evaluation index for complementary relationship；When the absolute value of pearson relative coefficient is less than 0.6,
Then judge the correlation after sieving between evaluation index for incomplementarity relationship.
Evaluating using catastrophe progression method shipping business in the step S04, specifically, obtains according to step S03
Sieve after the importance of evaluation index and the judging result of correlation between evaluation index after sieve, select corresponding to mutation type
Calculation formula, calculate sieve after evaluation index state variable, determine end-state value be mutation value, and using this value of mutation as
The evaluation of estimate of shipping business is completed to evaluate to shipping business.
Wherein, the mutation type includes fold catastrophe, Cusp Catastrophe, Coattail catastrophe and butterfly mutation, and calculation formula is such as
Shown in the following table 1,
Table 1
Wherein, x is state variable, and G (x) is the potential function of state variable x；The control that a, b, c, d are state variable x becomes
Amount, the sequence for controlling variable are ranked up according to the i.e. importance ranking result of judging result of the importance of evaluation index after sieve；
The judging result of correlation after sieve between evaluation index includes complementary relationship and incomplementarity relationship；
For evaluation index after the sieve of incomplementarity relationship, take the minimum value of state variable as end-state value x '；For example,
Butterfly is mutated, i.e. x '=min (xa,xb,xc,xd)；
For evaluation index after the sieve of complementary relationship, take the average value of state variable as end-state value x '；For example, right
It is mutated in butterfly, i.e. x '=(xa,xb,xc,xd)/4。
Embodiment:
Using a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business provided by the invention, with -2017 years 2013 Fujian Province
Step implementation is carried out for shipping business, obtains evaluation result.
One, mass-election index set is constructed
Based on water transport system contained by shipping business, document combing and expert opinion, the iotave evaluation index of mass-election shipping business, shape
At mass-election index set；Wherein, water transport system contained by shipping business includes the derivative industry of port service industry, Shipping industry and shipping, specially
Family's opinion uses Experts consultation method, to sort out 72 in terms of the derivative industry three of port service industry, Shipping industry and shipping
Iotave evaluation index, as shown in Figure 2.Fig. 2-(a) show the iotave evaluation index that port service industry is included, Fig. 2-(b) institute
It is shown as the iotave evaluation index that Shipping industry and the derivative industry of shipping are included.
Two, evaluation index screening the first stage: is carried out based on information content theoretical maximum
Mass-election index set according to Fig.2, data are standardized, and obtain shipping business evaluation index shown in Fig. 3
Initial data and standardization result.Fig. 3-(a) show the shipping business evaluation index initial data and standard of the 1st~19 row of serial number
Change as a result, Fig. 3-(b) show the shipping business evaluation index initial data and standardization result of the 20th~40 row of serial number, Fig. 3-
(c) the shipping business evaluation index initial data and standardization result of the 41st~60 row of serial number are shown.
1) R cluster is carried out.
With X11For 12 iotave evaluation indexs contained by the represented port infrastructure factor layer, by this 12
Iotave evaluation index gathers the process for illustrating R cluster for 3 classes.
The 8th~12 column data of 1st~12 row in Fig. 3 is inputted into SPSS software, sum of squares of deviations is selected, by X11Factor layer refers to
Mark gathers for 3 classes, as shown in Figure 4.According to same method, other factors layer can be classified.
2) reasonable sex determination being carried out to R clusters number --- K-W is examined.
The data of index similar in factor layer are inputted into SPSS software respectively, nonparametric K-W is selected to examine, obtain K-W inspection
Value is tested, visible K-W test value is arranged by Fig. 3 the 13rd and is noticeably greater than critical value 0.05, it was demonstrated that each existing classification of factor layer is reasonable.
3) screening of information content Maximum Index.
With X11,1For the natural conditions such as represented meteorology, the hydrology (%) this index, illustrate that coefficient of variation solution refers to
Mark the process of information content.
It brings the 8th~12 column standardized data of the 1st row in Fig. 3 into formula, obtains X11,1The coefficient of variation:
According to same method, the coefficient of variation of available other indexs (see the column of Fig. 3 the 14th).
4) maximum the index of the coefficient of variation is selected in the similar index of R cluster again, while rejects its in such
Remaining index is obtained based on the maximum shipping business assessment indicator system of information content, and the selection result is shown in that Fig. 2 the 5th is arranged.
5) the rational judgement of shipping business assessment indicator system.
Information contribution rate is calculated according to calculation formula:
The index for filtering out 34.38% (22/72=30.55%), reflects the original of mass-election index system 96.82%
Information.Prove that screening is reasonable.
Three, second stage: the shipping business evaluation based on mutation series；
1) with Coattail catastrophe system X11For port infrastructure subsystem, introduces Information Entropy and determine that index weights sort.
2013-2017 normal datas of index each in Fig. 2 are once brought into the sample ratio of evaluation index after corresponding sieve
Weight Pij, the entropy e of evaluation index after sievei, the value of utility d of evaluation index after sievei, the weight w of evaluation index after sieveiCalculating it is public
Formula can obtain the weight of each index.
Of a sort index is ranked up index according to the size of weight in factor layer, such as X in table 211,6、X11,9、
X11,12Index belongs to X11Port infrastructure, weight are respectively 0.000019,0.016328,0.005869, so they
It is ordered as X11,9、X11,12、X11,6。
Table 2
Similarly, the importance ranking of each level index, the visible Fig. 5 of concrete outcome be can determine whether.
2) with X21For port infrastructure subsystem, introduces and referred to by the pearson relative coefficient judgement between index
Correlation between mark.Index X as can be seen from Figure 621,4Container flight number and X21,3Pearson between the investment in fixed assets of navigation channel
Relative coefficient absolute value is 0.075, therefore thinks the two incomplementarity.
Similarly, the correlation of each level index, the visible Fig. 5 of concrete outcome be can determine whether.
3) mutation value calculates.
The calculating process of Fujian Province's shipping business evaluation is introduced for 2014.
A) the mutation value of factor layer index is calculated.
With X32For shipping university spin-off.For X32,6Cruise passenger throughput, X32,3Ship-handling enterprise of the country of the whole province
Quantity, X32,2Ship is for three indexs of company's quantity, and system type is complementary type Coattail catastrophe, and the calculating of normalizing formula is as follows,
Then complementary type X32The mutation value of the derivative industry of shipping are as follows:
(0.336606+0.556575+0.679267)/3=0.524149.
Similarly, the mutation value of 8 indexs of factor layer can be obtained.
B) the mutation value of calculation criterion layer index.
With X3For the derivative industry of shipping.For X32Shipping university spin-off, X31Shipping derives development environment two indices, is
System type is complementary type Cusp Catastrophe, and the calculating of normalizing formula is as follows,
Then complementary type X3The mutation value of the derivative industry of shipping are as follows:
(0.723982+0.714995)/2=0.719488.
Similarly, the quasi- mutation value for surveying 3 index of layer can be obtained.
C) the mutation value of shipping business is calculated.
For the X of shipping business3Shipping derives industry, X1Port service industry, X2Three indexs of Shipping industry, abruptly-changing system are
Complementary type Coattail catastrophe, the calculating of normalizing formula is as follows,
The then mutation value of complementary type shipping business are as follows:
(0.848227+0.925275+0.938604)/3=0.904035.
Similarly, the mutation value of other time shipping businesses can be calculated, as a result visible Fig. 7.
By evaluation result as it can be seen that since 2013 Fujian Province's shipping business state of development continued downturn, until good fortune in 2015
Province's shipping business is built slightly to get warm again after a cold spell.Shipping business sluggish one side in Fujian is the reduction due to the source of goods, this is mainly finance danger in 2008
Since machine, negative effect of the continued downturn of the states such as America and Europe consumption to China's foreign trade outlet generation.Another aspect China's shipping industry
The problem of transport power surplus always exists, this directly results in freight rate and plummets, and further results in most shipowners and loses operation.Separately
Outside, the problem of more the exacerbating Fujian shipping that rise steadily of freight cost such as diesel-fuel price, cost of labor.It can be seen that evaluation
As a result meet reality, the provable shipping business evaluation study that applies the inventive method to is with validity.
Basic principles and main features and advantage of the invention have been shown and described above.The technical staff of the industry should
Understand, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and the above embodiments and description only describe originals of the invention
Reason, without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, various changes and improvements may be made to the invention, these changes and improvements
It all fall within the protetion scope of the claimed invention.The claimed scope of the invention is by appended claims and its equivalent circle
It is fixed.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business, which comprises the following steps:
S01, water transport system contained by shipping business, document combing and expert opinion, the iotave evaluation index of mass-election shipping business, shape are based on
At mass-election index set；
S02, it is based on information content theoretical maximum, the method combined using R cluster and the coefficient of variation is sieved from mass-election index set
Evaluation index after sieving is selected, shipping business assessment indicator system is constructed；
Wherein, shipping business assessment indicator system is divided into three levels, is followed successively by rule layer, factor layer and indicator layer；Criterion stratose
Water transport system contained by shipping business out, factor layer list several factors of evaluation corresponding to different water transport systems, and indicator layer is listed not
If with evaluation index after dry screen corresponding to factor of evaluation；
S03, the importance that evaluation index after sieve is judged using Information Entropy, and sentenced using the relative coefficient between evaluation index after sieve
Correlation after disconnected sieve between evaluation index；
S04, it is based on shipping business assessment indicator system, shipping business is evaluated using catastrophe progression method.
2. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step
Water transport system contained by shipping business in S01 includes the derivative industry of port service industry, Shipping industry and shipping.
3. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step
S02, specifically,
S02-1, it uses R cluster to gather the iotave evaluation index for reflecting identical information for one kind, original is commented so that different classes of
Valence index reflects different information；
And K-W inspection is carried out to the cluster result of R cluster, complete the reasonable sex determination of clusters number；
S02-2, the coefficient of variation for calculating all kinds of iotave evaluation indexs, according to the maximum principle of the coefficient of variation to iotave evaluation index
It is screened, selects the iotave evaluation index for the information content that can reflect 95% or more mass-election index set in total and refer to be evaluated after sieve
Mark forms evaluation indice after sieve；
S02-3, to evaluation indice after sieve, carry out reasonable sex determination, output constructs reasonable shipping business assessment indicator system.
4. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: the step
The reasonable sex determination of clusters number in S02-1 is completed by the K-W inspection in SPSS software；
Specific operation process is: will belong in same category of data input SPSS software, and select K-W non-parametric test, obtain
K-W test value Sig；Judge whether cluster result is reasonable by the way that whether Sig value is greater than 0.05；If R clusters the Sig of every class result
Value is all larger than 0.05, then illustrates that the classification of R cluster is reasonable, be otherwise determined as unreasonable.
5. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: the step
The coefficient of variation of all kinds of iotave evaluation indexs of calculating in S02-2, its calculation formula is,
Wherein, viFor the coefficient of variation of the i-th evaluation index, n is the number of objects being evaluated, xijFor the mark in the 1 evaluation index jth year
Quasi- value, m are year number,For the mean value of each time standard value of the i-th evaluation index,
6. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: the step
The reasonable sex determination of carry out in S02-3, specifically,
The variance that each iotave evaluation index is calculated according to the initial data of iotave evaluation index, obtain mass-election index set variance it
And trShWith the sum of variance t of evaluation indice after sieverSs, pass through trSsWith trShRatio come reflect sieve after evaluation indice pair
Information the contribution rate In, In=t of mass-election index setrSs/trSh；
Meet evaluation indice after the sieve of criterion, then it is assumed that building is reasonable；Wherein, criterion is with 30% sieve below
Evaluation index can reflect the information content of 95% or more mass-election index set afterwards, then it is assumed that index system establishment is reasonable.
7. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step
Evaluation index importance after using Information Entropy judgement sieve in S03, specifically,
S03-1, the sample specific gravity P for calculating evaluation index after sieveij, the entropy e of evaluation index after sievei, the effect of evaluation index after sieve
With value di；
Calculation formula is,
di=1-ei；
Wherein, xijFor the standard value in the 1 evaluation index jth year, n is the number of objects being evaluated, and m is year number；
S03-2, the weight w for calculating evaluation index after sievei；
Calculation formula is
S03-3, according to the size of the weight of evaluation index after sieve, evaluated after indicator layer is to sieve corresponding to same factor of evaluation
Index is ranked up；
S03-4, according to shipping business assessment indicator system, by the weight of evaluation index after all sieves corresponding to same factor of evaluation
It is added to obtain the weight of the factor of evaluation, the weight of all factors of evaluation corresponding to same water transport system is added
The weight of the water transport system is obtained, and factor of evaluation sequence is carried out according to the size of the weight of different evaluation factor in factor layer,
The sequence of water transport system is carried out according to the size of the weight of water transport system in rule layer.
8. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 7, it is characterised in that: the step
Specifically being passed through in S03 using the correlation between evaluation index after the relative coefficient judgement sieve between evaluation index after sieve
SPSS software calculates the pearson relative coefficient after similar sieve between evaluation index, according to the absolute of pearson relative coefficient
Correlation after value judgement sieve between evaluation index；
When the absolute value of pearson relative coefficient is 0.6 or more, then judge the correlation after sieve between evaluation index for complementary pass
System；When the absolute value of pearson relative coefficient is less than 0.6, then judge that the correlation after sieve between evaluation index is that incomplementarity closes
System.
9. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step
Shipping business is evaluated using catastrophe progression method in S04, specifically, evaluation index after the sieve obtained according to step S03
The judging result of correlation after importance and sieve between evaluation index, selects calculation formula corresponding to mutation type, calculates
The state variable of evaluation index after sieve determines that end-state value is mutation value, and using this value of mutation as the evaluation of estimate of shipping business
Shipping business is completed to evaluate.
10. a kind of two-phase evaluation method about shipping business according to claim 9, it is characterised in that: the mutation
Type includes that fold catastrophe, Cusp Catastrophe, Coattail catastrophe and butterfly mutation, calculation formula are respectively,
Fold catastrophe: potential function is G (x)=x3+ ax, normalizing formula are
Cusp Catastrophe: potential function is G (x)=x4+ax2+ bx, normalizing formula are
Coattail catastrophe: potential function is
Normalizing formula is
Butterfly is mutated: potential function is
Normalizing formula is
Wherein, x is state variable, and G (x) is the potential function of state variable x；A, b, c, d are the control variable of state variable x, control
The sequence of variable processed is ranked up according to judging result, that is, importance ranking result of the importance of evaluation index after sieve；
The judging result of correlation after sieve between evaluation index includes complementary relationship and incomplementarity relationship；
For evaluation index after the sieve of incomplementarity relationship, take the minimum value of state variable as end-state value x '；
For evaluation index after the sieve of complementary relationship, take the average value of state variable as end-state value x '.
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