CN109345434A - A method for safety evaluation of road design inside and outside open community - Google Patents

A method for safety evaluation of road design inside and outside open community Download PDF

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CN109345434A
CN109345434A CN201811285635.5A CN201811285635A CN109345434A CN 109345434 A CN109345434 A CN 109345434A CN 201811285635 A CN201811285635 A CN 201811285635A CN 109345434 A CN109345434 A CN 109345434A
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李豪杰
吴东钰
丁红亮
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Southeast University
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Abstract

本发明公开了一种开放式小区内外部道路设计安全评价的方法，包括如下步骤：（1）划分调查区域及数据采集；（2）研究对象筛选；（3）道路网络形态划分及判别；（4）交通安全分析模型构建；（5）交通安全评价。本发明的有益效果为：通过筛选与开放式小区具有类似路网特征及用地特征的区域作为研究对象，利用全贝叶斯空间分层模型研究道路设计对于不同路网形态的小区所造成的影响，在随机误差项的基础上，引入考虑小区空间相关性的随机效应项在，考虑了小区在空间上的趋同效应。另外，模型对小区开放后的交通安全水平进行定量分析及等级划分，为小区开放的交通安全风险识别及交通安全水平评价提供了科学有效的方法。

The invention discloses a method for safety evaluation of road design inside and outside an open community, comprising the following steps: (1) division of investigation areas and data collection; (2) screening of research objects; (3) road network shape division and discrimination; ( 4) Construction of traffic safety analysis model; (5) Traffic safety evaluation. The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows: by screening the areas with similar road network characteristics and land use characteristics as open residential areas as research objects, the full Bayesian spatial hierarchical model is used to study the influence of road design on residential areas with different road network forms. , on the basis of the random error term, a random effect term that considers the spatial correlation of cells is introduced, and the spatial convergence effect of cells is considered. In addition, the model quantitatively analyzes and classifies the traffic safety level after the community opening, which provides a scientific and effective method for the traffic safety risk identification and traffic safety level evaluation of the community opening.

Description

A kind of method of open cell inside and outside highway layout safety evaluation
Technical field
The present invention relates to road traffic technical fields, more particularly to a kind of open cell inside and outside highway layout safety The method of evaluation.
Background technique
With the fast development of Chinese national economy and the quickening of urbanization process, the traffic jam issue day in some cities It is beneficial serious.China's urban road network unreasonable structure is the main reason for causing this problem not solve effectively.For a long time with Come, due to the limitation of Planning thought and management system, there are many closed cells of large size in China city, these cells are certain The formation of city microcirculation road network is hindered in degree, cut urban transportation, increases the pressure of urban road network.It solves Arterial street traffic congestion, it is crucial for promoting house block system and gradually opening built residential quarters and Unit Yard.And It is the traffic safety for how ensureing open cell in the greatest problem for carrying out being faced during cell is open.
It is different to have had a mature open block road network safety program Research foundation from foreign countries, open cell this without exception It reads in China still in the stage of popularization.Either in scientific research field or patent application field, based on open cell Often using topological theory and traffic flow theory etc. to Road Network Reliability, access and traffic congestion etc. is divided for research Analysis, in terms of road network safety evaluation, more particularly, to open cell inside and outside highway layout safety evaluation research still Quite lack.For this social actual demand and the insufficient contradiction of theoretical research, the invention proposes a kind of open cells The method of inside and outside highway layout safety evaluation.
Summary of the invention
To solve the above problems, the present invention provides a kind of open cell inside and outside highway layout safety evaluation Method, quantitative analysis can be carried out to the level of security of open cell inside and outside highway layout, and to its traffic safety water It is flat to carry out grade classification, for this purpose, the present invention provides a kind of side of open cell inside and outside highway layout safety evaluation Method includes the following steps:
(1) survey area and data acquisition are divided: using major trunk roads and subsidiary road as boundary, region being divided, is selected Area is selected greater than 0.5km2Region as survey area, using major trunk roads, subsidiary road and branch as road network in survey area The side of network, road junction and dead end highway endpoint carry out data acquisition, including residential land accounting p as noder, road mileage dr, main roads ratio PA, secondary road ratio PS, the number of edges E of network, number of nodes N, the degree k of node nn, node i and j away from From dij, shortest path number k between nodeij, road network connection degree is from c, section speed limit vL, road section length l, the external access item number of cell CE, accident number A, volume of traffic q；
(2) research object is screened: introducing screening index, selection meets residential land accounting and is greater than 25%, road mileage 8 ~12km/km2, and survey area of the connection degree greater than 1.6 and utilizes (1) as research object, i.e. Traffic Safety Analysis cell Middle the data obtained calculates the road network characteristic variable of each Traffic Safety Analysis cell and its adjacent survey area, including node The shortest path number k of node n is passed through between i and jinj, Betweenness Centrality Bn, close to centrality Cn, grid coefficient M；
(3) road network Form division and differentiation: by main roads ratio PA, secondary road ratio PS, Betweenness Centrality Bn, close to centrality Cn, grid coefficient M is as clustering variable, using the method for K-means cluster by all Traffic Safety Analysis The road network Form division of cell and its adjacent survey area is g class, is expressed as Rf(f=1,2,3 ..., g).According to cluster result, Its road network form is differentiated by the method for Bayesian, and the highest network morphology of discriminant scores is the region Road network form, SfIndicate the discriminant scores of f class road network form, soIndicate constant term, skIndicate clustering variable coefficient, Xk Indicate clustering variable, corresponding discriminant function are as follows:
(4) evaluation model selects and parameter calibration: using the accident rate of traffic analysis cell as dependent variable, taking full pattra leaves This space delamination model carries out Traffic Safety Analysis, and I indicates the sum of the survey area adjacent with traffic analysis cell, Nf(f= 1,2,3 ..., g) indicate the R adjacent with traffic analysis cellfThe quantity of class survey area, CEIndicate that external access item number, K indicate The section collection of survey area, VLIndicate that traffic analysis cell and the overall average speed limit of adjacent survey area are poor, α is constant term, εi Indicate stochastic error, uiThe stochastic effects item of representation space correlation, βnFor regression vector coefficient, to inhomogeneity road network The traffic analysis cell of form establishes Traffic Safety Analysis model respectively；
(5) Evaluation of Traffic Safety: road network Form division is carried out to cell, cell is opened using the model of corresponding road network form Traffic safety level after putting carries out quantitative analysis, and obtains the total distributed situation of all cell expectation accident rates, according to model Characteristic translated respectively downwards upwards with it is expected line centered on accident rate μA unit is as upper lower control limit, by cell The traffic safety of inside and outside highway layout is divided horizontally into level Four: I, II, III, IV.
Further improvement of the present invention, the degree k of step (1) interior joint nnRefer to adjacent with node n in the survey area Number of edges, Connected degree refer to the ratio of road connection quantity and road number of nodes in the survey area.
A kind of method of open cell inside and outside highway layout safety evaluation of the present invention, by choose with it is existing closed Cell has the region of similar land character as research object, studies highway layout pair using full Bayes's space delamination model The influence caused by the cell of different road network forms introduces on the basis of stochastic error and considers cell spatial coherence Stochastic effects item exist, it is contemplated that the convergent effect of open cell spatially.In addition, model opens existing closed type through cutting Traffic safety level after putting carries out quantitative analysis and grade classification, is the traffic safety risk identification and traffic of open cell Level of security evaluation provides scientific and effective method.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is Traffic Safety Analysis result and safety evaluation grade classification schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 2 is method flow schematic diagram of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Present invention is further described in detail with specific embodiment with reference to the accompanying drawing:
The present invention provides a kind of method of open cell inside and outside highway layout safety evaluation, can be to open cell The level of security of inside and outside highway layout carries out quantitative analysis, and carries out grade classification to its traffic safety level.
As illustrated in fig. 1 and 2, a method of determining that through street fixed point tachymeter influences traffic accident quantity, including Following steps:
(1) survey area and data acquisition are divided: by local transit department and the investigation of traffic police office and acquisition road network information And Land-use divides region using major trunk roads and subsidiary road as boundary, and area is selected to be greater than 0.5km2Area Domain is as survey area.Using major trunk roads, subsidiary road and branch as the side of road network in survey area, road junction and disconnected Parting endpoint carries out data acquisition, including residential land accounting p as noder, road mileage dr, main roads ratio PA, secondary Road ratio PS, the number of edges E of network, number of nodes N, the degree k of node nn, node i and j distance dij, shortest path between node Number kij, road network connection degree c, section speed limit vL, road section length l, the external access item number C of cellE, accident number A, volume of traffic q.
(2) research object is screened: introducing screening index, selection meets residential land accounting and is greater than 25%, road mileage 8 ~12km/km2, and survey area of the connection degree greater than 1.6 is as research object, i.e. Traffic Safety Analysis cell.And utilize (1) Middle the data obtained calculates the road network characteristic variable of each Traffic Safety Analysis cell and its adjacent survey area, including node The shortest path number k of node n is passed through between i and jinj, Betweenness Centrality Bn, close to centrality Cn, grid coefficient M.
(3) road network Form division and differentiation: by main roads ratio PA, secondary road ratio PS, Betweenness Centrality Bn, close to centrality Cn, grid coefficient M is as clustering variable, using the method for K-means cluster by all Traffic Safety Analysis The road network Form division of cell and its adjacent survey area is g class, is expressed as Rf(f=1,2,3 ..., g).According to cluster result, Its road network form is differentiated by the method for Bayesian, and the highest network morphology of discriminant scores is the region Road network form, SfIndicate the discriminant scores of f class road network form, soIndicate constant term, skIndicate clustering variable coefficient, Xk Indicate clustering variable, corresponding discriminant function are as follows:
(4) evaluation model selects and parameter calibration: using the accident rate of traffic analysis cell as dependent variable, taking full pattra leaves This space delamination model carries out Traffic Safety Analysis.I indicates the sum of the survey area adjacent with traffic analysis cell, Nf(f= 1,2,3 ..., g) indicate the R adjacent with traffic analysis cellfThe quantity of class survey area, CEIndicate that external access item number, K indicate The section collection of survey area, VLIndicate that traffic analysis cell and the overall average speed limit of adjacent survey area are poor, α is constant term, εi Indicate stochastic error, uiThe stochastic effects item of representation space correlation, βnFor regression vector coefficient.To with inhomogeneity road network The traffic analysis cell of form establishes Traffic Safety Analysis model respectively.
(5) Evaluation of Traffic Safety: road network Form division is carried out to cell, cell is opened using the model of corresponding road network form Traffic safety level after putting carries out quantitative analysis, and obtains the total distributed situation of all cell expectation accident rates.According to model Characteristic translated respectively downwards upwards with it is expected line centered on accident rate μA unit is as upper lower control limit, by cell The traffic safety of inside and outside highway layout is divided horizontally into level Four: I, II, III, IV.
Illustrate the present invention with specific embodiment below.
1) divide survey area and data acquisition: by local transit department and traffic police office investigation with acquisition road network information and Land-use divides region using major trunk roads and subsidiary road as boundary, and area is selected to be greater than 0.5km2Region As survey area, each survey area sample number is zi.Using major trunk roads, subsidiary road and branch as road network in survey area The side of network, road junction and dead end highway endpoint carry out data acquisition, the related data of obtained each survey area as node As shown in table 1-1.
The survey area table 1-1 statistics of data acquisition table
2) research object is screened: introducing screening index, selection meets residential land accounting and is greater than 25%, road mileage 8 ~12km/km2, and as research object, i.e., road connects survey area of the ratio greater than 1.6 of quantity and road number of nodes Traffic Safety Analysis cell.
3) road network Form division: by main roads ratio PA, secondary road ratio PS, Betweenness Centrality Bn, close to centrality Cn, grid coefficient M is as clustering variable, using the method for K-means cluster by all Traffic Safety Analysis cells and its adjacent The road network Form division of survey area is g class, is expressed as Rf(f=1,2,3 ..., g).According to cluster result, sentenced by Bayes The method that do not analyze differentiates its road network form, and the highest network morphology of discriminant scores is the road network shape in the region State.
4) Traffic Safety Analysis model construction: the division result based on road network form, statistics and Traffic Safety Analysis cell The quantity of the survey area of adjacent all kinds of road network forms, and obtain Traffic Safety Analysis cell according to the data in table 1-1 and hand over The argument data table 1-2 of logical safety analysis model, using the accident rate of traffic analysis cell as dependent variable, using in table 1-2 Data, take full Bayes's space delamination model to the traffic analysis cell with different road network forms establish respectively traffic peace Complete analysis model.
The adjacent survey area quantity of table 1-2 Traffic Safety Analysis cell acquires statistical form
5) Evaluation of Traffic Safety: carrying out road network Form division to cell, using the model of corresponding road network form to opening after Traffic safety level carry out quantitative analysis, obtain the total distributed situation of all cells expectation accident rate.It is expected that accident rate is made For center line, translate respectively downwards upwardsA unit pacifies the traffic of cell inside and outside highway layout as upper lower control limit The full level Four that is divided horizontally into: I, II, III, IV.
Table 1-3 traffic safety hierarchical level divides table
The above described is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, being not the limit for making any other form to the present invention System, and made any modification or equivalent variations according to the technical essence of the invention, still fall within present invention model claimed It encloses.

Claims (2)

1.一种开放式小区内外部道路设计安全评价的方法，其特征在于，包括如下步骤：1. a method for the safety evaluation of road design inside and outside the open community, is characterized in that, comprises the steps: (1)划分调查区域及数据采集：以主干道和次干道作为边界，对区域进行划分，选择面积大于0.5km2的区域作为调查区域，将主干道、次干道和支路作为调查区域内道路网络的边，道路交叉点与断头路端点作为节点进行数据采集，包括住宅用地占比pr，路网密度dr，主要道路比例PA，次要道路比例PS，网络的边数E，节点数N，节点n的度kn，节点i与j的距离dij，节点间的最短路径数kij，路网连结度从c，路段限速vL，路段长度l，小区对外通路条数CE，事故数A，交通量q；(1) Division of the survey area and data collection: The main road and the secondary road are used as the boundary to divide the area, and the area with an area greater than 0.5km2 is selected as the survey area, and the main road, secondary road and branch road are used as the roads in the survey area. The edges of the network, road intersections and end points of dead ends are used as nodes for data collection, including the proportion of residential land pr , the density of road network dr , the proportion of major roads P A , the proportion of secondary roads P S , and the number of edges in the network E , the number of nodes N, the degree k n of the node n, the distance d ij between the nodes i and j, the number of the shortest paths k ij between the nodes, the road network connection degree from c, the speed limit v L of the road section, the length of the road section l, the external access of the community The number of bars C E , the number of accidents A, the traffic volume q; (2)研究对象筛选：引入筛选指标，选取满足住宅用地占比大于25％，路网密度为8～12km/km2，且连结度大于1.6的调查区域作为研究对象，即交通安全分析小区，并利用(1)中所得数据对各交通安全分析小区及其相邻调查区域的路网特征变量进行计算，包括节点i与j之间穿越节点n的最短路径数kinj，中介中心性Bn，接近中心性Cn，网格系数M；(2) Screening of research objects: Introduce screening indicators, and select the survey area that meets the proportion of residential land is greater than 25%, the road network density is 8-12km/km 2 , and the degree of connection is greater than 1.6 as the research object, that is, the traffic safety analysis area. And use the data obtained in (1) to calculate the road network characteristic variables of each traffic safety analysis area and its adjacent survey areas, including the number of shortest paths k inj between nodes i and j crossing node n, and the betweenness centrality B n , close to centrality C n , grid coefficient M; (3)道路网络形态划分及判别：将主要道路比例PA，次要道路比例PS，中介中心性Bn，接近中心性Cn，网格系数M作为聚类变量，利用K-means聚类的方法将所有交通安全分析小区及其相邻调查区域的路网形态划分为g类，表示为Rf(f＝1,2,3,…,g)。根据聚类结果，通过贝叶斯判别分析的方法判别其道路网络形态，判别得分最高的网络形态即为该区域的道路网络形态，Sf表示第f类路网形态的判别得分，so表示常数项，sk表示聚类变量系数，Xk表示聚类变量，对应的判别函数为：(3) Road network morphology division and discrimination: the main road proportion P A , the secondary road proportion P S , the betweenness centrality B n , the closeness centrality C n , and the grid coefficient M are used as clustering variables, and K-means is used to cluster The class method divides the road network morphology of all traffic safety analysis areas and their adjacent survey areas into g classes, denoted as R f (f=1,2,3,...,g). According to the clustering results, the road network shape is determined by Bayesian discriminant analysis. The network shape with the highest discriminant score is the road network shape in the area. Constant term, s k represents the clustering variable coefficient, X k represents the clustering variable, and the corresponding discriminant function is: (4)评价模型选择及参数标定：以交通分析小区的事故率作为因变量，采取全贝叶斯空间分层模型进行交通安全分析，I表示与交通分析小区相邻的调查区域的总数，Nf(f＝1,2,3,…,g)表示与交通分析小区相邻的Rf类调查区域的数量，CE表示对外通路条数，K表示调查区域的路段集，VL表示交通分析小区与相邻的调查区域的总平均限速差，α为常数项、εi表示随机误差项，ui表示空间相关性的随机效应项，βn为回归向量系数，对具有不同类路网形态的交通分析小区分别建立交通安全分析模型；(4) Evaluation model selection and parameter calibration: The accident rate of the traffic analysis area is used as the dependent variable, and the full Bayesian spatial hierarchical model is used for traffic safety analysis, where I represents the total number of survey areas adjacent to the traffic analysis area, N f (f=1,2,3,...,g) represents the number of R f -type survey areas adjacent to the traffic analysis area, C E represents the number of external roads, K represents the set of road segments in the survey area, and VL represents the traffic Analyze the total average speed limit difference between the residential area and the adjacent survey area, α is a constant term, ε i is a random error term, u i is a random effect term of spatial correlation, β n is a regression vector coefficient, and for different types of roads The traffic analysis community in the form of network establishes the traffic safety analysis model respectively; (5)交通安全评价：对小区进行路网形态划分，利用相应路网形态的模型对小区开放后的交通安全水平进行定量分析，并得到所有小区期望事故率的总分布情况，根据模型的特性，以期望事故率μ作为中心线，向上向下分别平移个单位作为上下控制限，将小区内外部道路设计的交通安全水平划分为四级：Ⅰ，Ⅱ，Ⅲ，Ⅳ。(5) Traffic safety evaluation: Divide the road network shape of the community, use the model of the corresponding road network shape to quantitatively analyze the traffic safety level after the community is opened, and obtain the total distribution of expected accident rates in all communities. According to the characteristics of the model , take the expected accident rate μ as the center line, and translate up and down respectively Each unit is used as the upper and lower control limits, and the traffic safety level of road design inside and outside the community is divided into four levels: Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ, Ⅳ. 2.根据权利要求1所述的一种开放式小区内外部道路设计安全评价的方法，其特征在于：步骤(1)中节点n的度kn是指该调查区域内与节点n相邻的边数，连接度是指该调查区域内道路连接数量与道路节点数量的比值。2. The method for safety evaluation of road design inside and outside an open cell according to claim 1, wherein: the degree k n of node n in step (1) refers to the area adjacent to node n in the survey area. The number of edges and the degree of connectivity refers to the ratio of the number of road connections to the number of road nodes in the survey area.
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CN113449402B (en) * 2021-06-22 2022-08-05 武汉大学 A method for predicting the efficiency gain of the road network after the broken road is opened up
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