CN109345046A - The prediction technique and device of photovoltaic power - Google Patents

The prediction technique and device of photovoltaic power Download PDF

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CN109345046A
CN109345046A CN201811480173.2A CN201811480173A CN109345046A CN 109345046 A CN109345046 A CN 109345046A CN 201811480173 A CN201811480173 A CN 201811480173A CN 109345046 A CN109345046 A CN 109345046A
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rain
day
irradiation level
shine
index
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CN109345046B (en
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雍正
向婕
周永
苏仲岳
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New Energy Polytron Technologies Inc
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Abstract

The embodiment of the present invention provides the prediction technique and device of a kind of photovoltaic power, and wherein method includes: the predicted value in the measured value and each day forecast of historical time for obtain irradiation level of the single photovoltaic plant in historical time about the irradiation level of target date;Calculate the rain or shine index that the same day is actual and predicts;It calculates and corrects rain or shine index and benchmark rain or shine index;According to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, the historical time last day is modified the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, target date revised irradiation level is obtained, the power curve of photovoltaic plant is calculated according to the target date revised irradiation level.The embodiment of the present invention improves tradition using the stability of single weather forecast, improves the utilization rate of forecast data, has excavated the key index being hidden in inside data, while improving the utilization rate of data, improves accuracy of the forecast.

Description

The prediction technique and device of photovoltaic power
Technical field
The present embodiments relate to power grid photovoltaic power generation electric powder predictions, more particularly, to the prediction of photovoltaic power Method and device.
Background technique
Under the background that photovoltaic power generation grid-connecting capacity steps up, accurately and effectively predict that photovoltaic plant output power is light The basis of overhead utility power generation, under this demand, photovoltaic power generation Predicting Technique achieves significant progress therewith.To being at present Only, the predicting power of photovoltaic plant model of mainstream still relies on numerical weather prediction as modeling basis.By numerical weather prediction In relevant to photovoltaic power generation meteorological element variable as input, prediction in 1-3 days is carried out to generated energy, to obtain photovoltaic Power curve, so that electric system can be with this will serve as a proof according to progress power scheduling.Wherein numerical weather prediction is commonly known as gas As source, and the process for calculating power curve is referred to as modeling.
The numerical model period more gentle in weather modification, prediction strategy is higher, when weather modification is violent, in advance It is lower to survey skill.Mode process and the closely related heat of atmospheric surface, momentum and Water Transport, nonlinear interaction etc. There is relationship.Since numerical model is made of kinetic equation, forecasting system will cause by the difference of initial fields and generate deviation.Make The prediction result of photovoltaic power will be seriously affected with the resulting weather system error of single number weather forecasting.
It is the solar radiation flux for reaching ground, usual situation with the maximally related element of photovoltaic plant in numerical prediction Under, theoretical intensity of solar radiation depends on the variables such as elevation angle, solar distance and the sunshine-duration of the sun, but due to receiving cloud The influence of layer, aerosol etc., solar radiation flux difference is larger under DIFFERENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, and wherein determines that photovoltaic power prediction is quasi- The key of true rate is correctly predicted level of solar radiation, also referred to as irradiance level.Since apparent diurnal periodicity is presented in irradiation level Rule, day irradiance level also become one of the index for measuring forecasting accuracy, the index also referred to as rain or shine index.Due to number The difference of value mode initial fields and parameter setting, the radiancy level predicted also will appear difference, be conventionally based on The modeling of raw value weather forecasting, it will usually there is a situation where irradiance level predict it is unstable, to reduce this photovoltaic The precision of power prediction.
Summary of the invention
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of photovoltaic power for overcoming the above problem or at least being partially solved the above problem Prediction technique and device.
First aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provide a kind of prediction technique of photovoltaic power, comprising:
Obtain single photovoltaic plant in each day of the measured value and historical time forecast of the irradiation level of historical time about The predicted value of the irradiation level of target date;The last day of the historical time is the previous day of the target date;
The same day actual rain or shine index is calculated according to the measured value of same day irradiation level to any one day of the historical time; According to the forecast on date before the same day to the predicted value of same day irradiation level, the rain or shine index of same day prediction is calculated;
According to every day in the historical time it is actual and it is expected that rain or shine index, calculated using Kalman filter equation First predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date, as amendment rain or shine index;
According to the forecast of the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, described in calculating Second predicted value of the rain or shine index of target date, as benchmark rain or shine index;
According to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, to the historical time last day to described The predicted value of the irradiation level of target date is modified, and target date revised irradiation level is obtained, according to the target date Revised irradiation level calculates the power curve of photovoltaic plant.
The second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provide a kind of prediction meanss of photovoltaic power, comprising:
Historical data obtains module, for obtaining single photovoltaic plant in the measured value of the irradiation level of historical time and going through Predicted value in each day forecast of history time about the irradiation level of target date;The last day of the historical time is the target The previous day on date;
Rain or shine index computing module, for being counted to any one day of the historical time according to the measured value of same day irradiation level Calculate the same day actual rain or shine index;According to the forecast on date before the same day to the predicted value of same day irradiation level, same day prediction is calculated Rain or shine index;
Amendment rain or shine index computing module, for according to every day in the historical time it is actual and it is expected that rain or shine refer to Number, the first predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date is calculated using Kalman filter equation, as amendment rain or shine index;
Benchmark rain or shine index computing module, for according to the forecast of the historical time last day to the target date Irradiation level predicted value, the second predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date is calculated, as benchmark rain or shine index;
Photovoltaic power computing module, for according to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, to described Historical time last day is modified the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, obtains target date revised spoke Illumination calculates the power curve of photovoltaic plant according to the target date revised irradiation level.
The third aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of electronic equipment, including memory, processor and is stored in memory Computer program that is upper and can running on a processor, is realized when the processor executes described program as first aspect provides Method the step of.
Fourth aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provide a kind of non-transient computer readable storage medium, are stored thereon with calculating Machine program is realized as provided by first aspect when the computer program is executed by processor the step of method.
The prediction technique and device of photovoltaic power provided in an embodiment of the present invention obtain single photovoltaic plant in historical time Irradiation level measured value and the forecast of each day of historical time in about the target date irradiation level predicted value;Calculating is worked as Its actual and prediction rain or shine index;It calculates and corrects rain or shine index and benchmark rain or shine index;According to the benchmark rain or shine index And the amendment rain or shine index, predicted value of the historical time last day to the irradiation level of the target date is carried out Amendment obtains target date revised irradiation level, calculates photovoltaic plant according to the target date revised irradiation level Power curve.The embodiment of the present invention improves tradition using the stability of single weather forecast, improves the utilization of forecast data Rate has excavated the key index being hidden in inside data, while improving the utilization rate of data, improves accuracy of the forecast.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is this hair Bright some embodiments for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can be with root Other attached drawings are obtained according to these attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of the prediction technique of photovoltaic power provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the structural schematic diagram of the prediction meanss of photovoltaic power provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the entity structure schematic diagram of electronic equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention In attached drawing, technical scheme in the embodiment of the invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is A part of the embodiment of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art Every other embodiment obtained without creative efforts, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In order to overcome the above problem of the prior art, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of prediction technique of photovoltaic power and Device, inventive concept are as follows: the method predicted by history forecast correction photovoltaic is repeatedly forecast for the odd-numbered day, uses Kalman Filtering method establishes filtering equations, and for the odd-numbered day, rain or shine index carries out Forecast model, to promote whole photovoltaic forecast stability And accuracy.
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of the prediction technique of photovoltaic power provided in an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
In S101, the measured value for obtaining irradiation level of the single photovoltaic plant in historical time and each day forecast of historical time The predicted value of irradiation level about target date;The last day of the historical time is the previous day of the target date.
Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention selects the following some day as target date first, such as selects November 1 in 2018 Day it is used as target date, then obtains single photovoltaic plant in historical time, such as October 20 is to day part on October 31 The measured value of irradiation value and October 20 to during October 31 daily to the irradiation value of the November in 2018 of day part on the 1st Predicted value.
S102, was calculated actual rain or shine the same day according to the measured value of same day irradiation level to any one day of the historical time Index;According to the forecast on date before the same day to the predicted value of same day irradiation level, the rain or shine index of same day prediction is calculated.
It should be noted that the embodiment of the present invention need to obtain in historical time the predicted value of the rain or shine index of every day and Actual value, wherein rain or shine the actual value of index is calculated according to the measured value of the same day all period irradiation values, and rain or shine index Predicted value then have it is multiple, this is because every day can all predict the irradiation value of subsequent certain number of days, for example, for 10 It is pre- due to can daily be carried out to irradiation value on the 25th October 20 to October 24 for the predicted value of the rain or shine index on the moon 25 It surveys, accordingly, there exist 5 predicted values for irradiation value on the 25th.
S103, according to every day in the historical time it is actual and it is expected that rain or shine index, utilize Kalman filtering side Journey calculates the first predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date, as amendment rain or shine index.
It should be noted that Kalman filtering (Kalman filtering) is a kind of to utilize linear system state equation, lead to System input and output observation data are crossed, the algorithm of optimal estimation is carried out to system mode.Due to including in system in observation data Noise and interference influence, so optimal estimation is also considered as filtering.In embodiments of the present invention, pass through Kalman The prediction of the rain or shine index to the date where target date may be implemented in filtering, as amendment rain or shine index.
S104, according to the forecast of the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, meter The second predicted value for calculating the rain or shine index of the target date, as benchmark rain or shine index.
It is understood that since irradiation level of the historical time last day to time zone all periods where target date is equal It can predict, therefore, the prediction of the rain or shine index to the date where target date also may be implemented according to these irradiation level predicted, Using predicted value as benchmark rain or shine index.
S105, according to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, to the historical time last day The predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date is modified, target date revised irradiation level is obtained, according to the mesh Mark the power curve that date revised irradiation level calculates photovoltaic plant.
It should be noted that passing through benchmark rain or shine index and amendment since rain or shine index is calculated by irradiation level Rain or shine the otherness between index can be obtained to the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date Obtain the predicted value of revised irradiation level.Belong to known in this neighborhood it should be appreciated that calculating photovoltaic power generation curve using irradiation level Common sense, details are not described herein.
Compared with prior art, the embodiment of the present invention is utilized more days not be fully utilized in history forecast and forecasts, It reconstructs data and establishes the best estimate based on kalman filter method, by gathering multiple forecast result, improve traditional use The stability of single weather forecast improves the utilization of forecast data compared to tradition using the DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM method of multiple meteorologies Rate, has excavated the key index being hidden in inside data, at the same the embodiment of the present invention it is innovative using rain or shine index as number The key index of photovoltaic forecast, improves the utilization rate of data, improves the standard of forecast in value simulation weather system translation motion True property.
On the basis of the various embodiments described above, calculated as a kind of alternative embodiment according to the measured value of same day irradiation level The same day actual rain or shine index, is calculated with specific reference to following formula:
Wherein,Indicate that the t days actual rain or shine indexes, n indicate the prediction number of irradiation level in one day, x (i) is indicated The measured value of the irradiation level of i-th of period, x in one daymaxIndicate the maximum value of irradiation level in one day.
On the basis of the various embodiments described above, as a kind of alternative embodiment, according to the forecast on date before the same day to the same day The predicted value of irradiation level calculates the rain or shine index of same day prediction, is calculated with specific reference to following formula:
Wherein,Indicate that the u days rain or shine indexes to prediction in the t days, n indicate the prediction of irradiation level in one day Number, xu(i) predicted value of the u days irradiation level to the t days i-th period is indicated,It indicates to predict the t days in the u days All periods irradiation level maximum value.
It is real according to every day in the historical time as a kind of alternative embodiment on the basis of the various embodiments described above Border and it is expected that rain or shine index, date prediction rain or shine refers to where calculating target date using Kalman filter equation Number, specifically:
For kth day in historical time, Kalman's filter is established to the rain or shine index of kth day prediction according to l days before kth day Wave equation, in conjunction with the actual rain or shine index construction state-transition matrix of kth day;
According to state-transition matrix obtain the actual rain or shine index of kth day and it is expected that rain or shine index between deviation, according to The deviation is modified the rain or shine index of prediction in kth+1 day, until date prediction where obtaining target date rain or shine refers to Number.
For example, every daily forecast has a prediction of following 7 days irradiation level, data area was from June 1 to June 30 in 2018 Day, for the purpose of the predicted value of rain or shine index for correcting July 1.Calculated for 16 dates rain or shine to calculate Kalman filter equation For index, June 10 was calculated to the predicted value of irradiation level on the 16th according to June 10 to every daily forecast on June 15 respectively To June 15 to the predicted value of rain or shine index on the 16th to establish Kalman filter equation, in conjunction with the reality of irradiation level on the 16th in June The actual value of the calculated rain or shine index of measured value constructs state-transition matrix, obtains the actual rain or shine index on June 16 and pre- Deviation between the rain or shine index of meter, is modified, continuous recursion according to predicted value of the deviation to the rain or shine index on June 17, Finally the predicted value of the rain or shine index on July 1 is modified.
On the basis of the above embodiments, as a kind of alternative embodiment, it is also necessary to single photovoltaic plant in history Between the measured value of irradiation level carry out seasonal filtering processing, filter out season trend term therein.This is because Various Seasonal Irradiation level can have apparent difference, since practical predetermined period forecast daily is usually at 7 to 15 days or so, if prediction Time is in the same moon or season, and the prediction result of irradiation level is also relatively more accurate, but if across seasonal forecasting, irradiation level Prediction result is unsatisfactory, for example, belong to month at the end of spring and the beginning of summer June, the weather item of weather conditions and 6 the end of month at the beginning of 6 months Part usually has apparent difference.Specifically seasonal filtering includes: the embodiment of the present invention
To the measured value of irradiation level daily in historical time, made even according to the measured value of certain time length before and after the same day Mean value, the correction value of the measured value of the irradiation level as the same day.
On the basis of the above embodiments, further include to the data scrubbing of irradiation level and abnormal actual measurement irradiation level is carried out It screens out.
On the basis of the various embodiments described above, according to benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, gone through to described Last day history time is modified the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, obtains target date revised irradiation Degree is calculated with specific reference to following formula:
Wherein,Indicate benchmark rain or shine index,Indicate that amendment rain or shine index, x (r) indicate that historical time is last The predicted value of one day irradiation level to the target date,Indicate target date revised irradiation level.
Fig. 2 is the structural schematic diagram of the prediction meanss of photovoltaic power provided in an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Fig. 2, this is pre- Surveying device includes: that historical data obtains module 201, rain or shine index computing module 202, amendment rain or shine index computing module 203, base The fine index computing module 204 in Zhunyin, photovoltaic power computing module 205, in which:
Historical data obtain module 201, for obtain single photovoltaic plant the irradiation level of historical time measured value with And the predicted value in each day forecast of historical time about the irradiation level of the target date;The last day of the historical time is The previous day of the target date.
Specifically, the historical data acquisition module 201 of the embodiment of the present invention selects the following some day as target day first Phase, such as select on November 1st, 2018 as target date, single photovoltaic plant is then obtained in historical time, such as October The measured value of irradiation value to day part on the 31st in October on the 20th and October 20 to during October 31 daily to 2018 11 The predicted value of the irradiation value of month day part on the 1st.
Rain or shine index computing module 202 is used for any one day of the historical time, according to the actual measurement of same day irradiation level Value calculates the same day actual rain or shine index;According to the forecast on date before the same day to the predicted value of same day irradiation level, the same day is calculated The rain or shine index of prediction.
It should be noted that the rain or shine index computing module 202 of the embodiment of the present invention obtains every day in historical time The rain or shine predicted value and actual value of index, wherein rain or shine the actual value of index is the actual measurement according to the same day all period irradiation values Value calculate, and rain or shine the predicted value of index then have it is multiple, this is because every day all can be to the irradiation value of subsequent certain number of days It is predicted, for example, for the predicted value of the rain or shine index on October 25, due to average daily meeting in October 20 to October 24 Irradiation value on the 25th is predicted, accordingly, there exist 5 predicted values for irradiation value on the 25th.
Amendment rain or shine index computing module 203, for according to every day in the historical time it is actual and it is expected that yin Fine index calculates the first predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date using Kalman filter equation, rain or shine as amendment Index.
It should be noted that Kalman filtering (Kalman filtering) is a kind of to utilize linear system state equation, lead to System input and output observation data are crossed, the algorithm of optimal estimation is carried out to system mode.Due to including in system in observation data Noise and interference influence, so optimal estimation is also considered as filtering.In embodiments of the present invention, amendment rain or shine refers to The prediction of the rain or shine index to place date target date may be implemented by Kalman filtering for number computing modules 203, as repairing Just rain or shine index.
Benchmark rain or shine index computing module 204, for according to the forecast of the historical time last day to the target The predicted value of the irradiation level on date calculates the second predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date, as benchmark rain or shine index.
It is understood that since irradiation level of the historical time last day to time zone all periods where target date is equal It can predict, therefore, the prediction of the rain or shine index to the date where target date also may be implemented according to these irradiation level predicted, Using predicted value as benchmark rain or shine index.
Photovoltaic power computing module 205, for according to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, to institute Stating historical time last day is modified the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, and it is revised to obtain target date Irradiation level calculates the power curve of photovoltaic plant according to the target date revised irradiation level.
It should be noted that passing through benchmark rain or shine index and amendment since rain or shine index is calculated by irradiation level Rain or shine the otherness between index can be obtained to the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date Obtain the predicted value of revised irradiation level.Belong to known in this neighborhood it should be appreciated that calculating photovoltaic power generation curve using irradiation level Common sense, details are not described herein.
The prediction meanss of photovoltaic power provided in an embodiment of the present invention specifically execute the prediction technique of above-mentioned each photovoltaic power Embodiment process please specifically be detailed in the content of the prediction technique embodiment of above-mentioned each photovoltaic power, and details are not described herein.The present invention The prediction meanss for the photovoltaic power that embodiment provides are utilized more days not be fully utilized in history forecast and forecast, reconstruct Data establish the best estimate based on kalman filter method, by gathering multiple forecast result, improve traditional using single The stability of weather forecast improves the utilization rate of forecast data compared to tradition using the DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM method of multiple meteorologies, digs Dug the key index being hidden in inside data, at the same the embodiment of the present invention it is innovative using rain or shine index as numerical simulation The key index that photovoltaic is forecast in weather system translation motion, improves the utilization rate of data, improves accuracy of the forecast.
Fig. 3 is the entity structure schematic diagram of electronic equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Fig. 3, the electronic equipment It may include: processor (processor) 310,320, memory communication interface (Communications Interface) (memory) 330 and communication bus 340, wherein processor 310, communication interface 320, memory 330 pass through communication bus 340 Complete mutual communication.Processor 310 can call the meter that is stored on memory 330 and can run on processor 310 Calculation machine program, to execute the prediction technique of the photovoltaic power of the various embodiments described above offer, for example, obtain single photovoltaic plant About the pre- of the irradiation level of the target date in each day forecast of measured value and historical time of the irradiation level of historical time Measured value;The last day of the historical time is the previous day of the target date;To any one day of the historical time, according to The measured value of same day irradiation level calculates the same day actual rain or shine index;According to the forecast on date before the same day to same day irradiation level Predicted value, calculate the same day predict rain or shine index;According to every day in the historical time it is actual and it is expected that rain or shine refer to Number, the first predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date is calculated using Kalman filter equation, as amendment rain or shine index; According to the forecast of the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, the target date is calculated Rain or shine index the second predicted value, as benchmark rain or shine index;Rain or shine according to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment Index is modified the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, obtains target day Phase revised irradiation level calculates the power curve of photovoltaic plant according to the target date revised irradiation level.
In addition, the logical order in above-mentioned memory 330 can be realized by way of SFU software functional unit and conduct Independent product when selling or using, can store in a computer readable storage medium.Based on this understanding, originally The technical solution of the inventive embodiments substantially part of the part that contributes to existing technology or the technical solution in other words It can be embodied in the form of software products, which is stored in a storage medium, including several fingers It enables and using so that a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server or the network equipment etc.) executes the present invention respectively The all or part of the steps of a embodiment the method.And storage medium above-mentioned includes: USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic or disk Etc. the various media that can store program code.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of non-transient computer readable storage medium, is stored thereon with computer program, The computer program is implemented to carry out the prediction technique of the photovoltaic power of the various embodiments described above offer when being executed by processor, such as It include: in the measured value and each day forecast of historical time for obtain irradiation level of the single photovoltaic plant in historical time about described The predicted value of the irradiation level of target date;The last day of the historical time is the previous day of the target date;To described Any one day of historical time calculates the same day actual rain or shine index according to the measured value of same day irradiation level;According to the day before yesterday on the same day The forecast of phase calculates the rain or shine index of same day prediction to the predicted value of same day irradiation level;According to every day in the historical time It is actual and it is expected that rain or shine index, using Kalman filter equation calculate the rain or shine index of the target date first prediction Value, as amendment rain or shine index;According to the forecast of the historical time last day to the pre- of the irradiation level of the target date Measured value calculates the second predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date, as benchmark rain or shine index;Rain or shine according to the benchmark Index and the amendment rain or shine index, to the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date It is modified, obtains target date revised irradiation level, photovoltaic electric is calculated according to the target date revised irradiation level The power curve stood.
The apparatus embodiments described above are merely exemplary, wherein described, unit can as illustrated by the separation member It is physically separated with being or may not be, component shown as a unit may or may not be physics list Member, it can it is in one place, or may be distributed over multiple network units.It can be selected according to the actual needs In some or all of the modules achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.Those of ordinary skill in the art are not paying creativeness Labour in the case where, it can understand and implement.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can be understood that each embodiment can It realizes by means of software and necessary general hardware platform, naturally it is also possible to pass through hardware.Based on this understanding, on Stating technical solution, substantially the part that contributes to existing technology can be embodied in the form of software products in other words, should Computer software product may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, such as ROM/RAM, magnetic disk, CD, including several fingers It enables and using so that a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server or the network equipment etc.) executes each implementation Method described in certain parts of example or embodiment.
Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations;Although Present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that: it still may be used To modify the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features; And these are modified or replaceed, technical solution of various embodiments of the present invention that it does not separate the essence of the corresponding technical solution spirit and Range.

Claims (9)

1. a kind of prediction technique of photovoltaic power characterized by comprising
Single photovoltaic plant is obtained in each day forecast of measured value and historical time of the irradiation level of historical time about target The predicted value of the irradiation level on date;The last day of the historical time is the previous day of the target date;
The same day actual rain or shine index is calculated according to the measured value of same day irradiation level to any one day of the historical time;According to The forecast on date calculated the rain or shine index of same day prediction to the predicted value of same day irradiation level before the same day;
According to every day in the historical time it is actual and it is expected that rain or shine index, calculated using Kalman filter equation described in First predicted value of the rain or shine index of target date, as amendment rain or shine index;
According to the forecast of the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, the target is calculated Second predicted value of the rain or shine index on date, as benchmark rain or shine index;
According to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, to the historical time last day to the target The predicted value of the irradiation level on date is modified, and obtains target date revised irradiation level, is revised according to the target date Irradiation level afterwards calculates the power curve of photovoltaic plant.
2. the prediction technique of photovoltaic power according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the reality according to same day irradiation level Measured value calculates the same day actual rain or shine index, is calculated with specific reference to following formula:
Wherein,Indicate that the t days actual rain or shine indexes, n indicate the prediction number of irradiation level in one day, x (i) is indicated one day In i-th of period irradiation level measured value, xmaxIndicate the maximum value of irradiation level in one day.
3. the prediction technique of photovoltaic power according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described according to the date before the same day It forecasts the predicted value to same day irradiation level, calculates the rain or shine index of same day prediction, calculated with specific reference to following formula:
Wherein,Indicate that the u days rain or shine indexes to prediction in the t days, n indicate the prediction number of irradiation level in one day, xu (i) predicted value of the u days irradiation level to the t days i-th period is indicated,Indicate that owns prediction in t days in u days The maximum value of the irradiation level of period.
4. the prediction technique of photovoltaic power according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described according in the historical time Every day it is actual and it is expected that rain or shine index, calculate the of the rain or shine index of the target date using Kalman filter equation One predicted value, as amendment rain or shine index, specifically:
For kth day in historical time, Kalman filtering side is established to the rain or shine index of kth day prediction according to l days before kth day Journey, in conjunction with the actual rain or shine index construction state-transition matrix of kth day;
According to state-transition matrix obtain the actual rain or shine index of kth day and it is expected that rain or shine index between deviation, according to described Deviation is modified the rain or shine index of prediction in kth+1 day, until obtaining the first predicted value of the rain or shine index of target date.
5. the prediction technique of photovoltaic power according to claim 1, which is characterized in that any one to the historical time It calculates the same day actual rain or shine index, according to the date before the same day according to the measured value of the irradiation level of all periods on the same day It forecasts the predicted value to the irradiation level of all periods on the same day, calculates the rain or shine index of same day prediction, before further include:
To the measured value of irradiation level daily in historical time, it is averaged according to the measured value of certain time length before and after the same day Value, the correction value of the measured value of the irradiation level as the same day, and abnormal actual measurement irradiation level is screened out.
6. the prediction technique of photovoltaic power according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described rain or shine to be referred to according to the benchmark The several and described amendment rain or shine index, to the historical time last day to the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date into Row amendment, obtains target date revised irradiation level, calculates with specific reference to following formula:
Wherein,Indicate benchmark rain or shine index,Indicate that amendment rain or shine index, x (r) indicate historical time last day To the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date,Indicate target date revised irradiation level.
7. a kind of prediction meanss of photovoltaic power characterized by comprising
Historical data obtains module, for obtaining single photovoltaic plant in the measured value and history of the irradiation level of historical time Between predicted value in the forecast of each day about the irradiation level of target date;The last day of the historical time is the target date The previous day;
Rain or shine index computing module, for any one day of the historical time, according to the measured value of same day irradiation level, calculating to be worked as Its actual rain or shine index;According to the forecast on date before the same day to the predicted value of same day irradiation level, the yin of same day prediction is calculated Fine index;
Amendment rain or shine index computing module, for according to every day in the historical time it is actual and it is expected that rain or shine index, The first predicted value that the rain or shine index of the target date is calculated using Kalman filter equation, as amendment rain or shine index;
Benchmark rain or shine index computing module, for the spoke according to the forecast of the historical time last day to the target date The predicted value of illumination calculates the second predicted value of the rain or shine index of the target date, as benchmark rain or shine index;
Photovoltaic power computing module, for according to the benchmark rain or shine index and the amendment rain or shine index, to the history Last day time is modified the predicted value of the irradiation level of the target date, obtains target date revised irradiation Degree calculates the power curve of photovoltaic plant according to the target date revised irradiation level.
8. a kind of electronic equipment characterized by comprising
At least one processor;And
At least one processor being connect with the processor communication, in which:
The memory is stored with the program instruction that can be executed by the processor, and the processor calls described program to instruct energy Enough prediction techniques executed as described in any one of claim 1 to 6.
9. a kind of non-transient computer readable storage medium, which is characterized in that the non-transient computer readable storage medium is deposited Computer instruction is stored up, the computer instruction makes the computer execute the prediction as described in any one of claim 1 to 6 Method.
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