CN109308586A - Planning method of rail transit emergency response program based on progress control management - Google Patents
Planning method of rail transit emergency response program based on progress control management Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a planning method of a rail transit emergency response program based on progress control management, which comprises the following steps: (1) the method comprises the steps of determining the demand analysis of a rail transit emergency response program, (2) establishing an emergency response program planning method of an emergency organization (3) based on the demand analysis, preparing (4) establishing a rail transit emergency response program optimization model (5), solving the obtained model by adopting a particle swarm algorithm, obtaining the optimal rail transit emergency response program planning method, and establishing a rail transit emergency response program planning model based on progress control management.
Description
Field of the invention
The invention belongs to the technical field of rail transit emergency management, and particularly relates to a rail transit emergency response program planning method based on progress control management.
Background
As a novel public transportation mode, modern rail transit is constructed in a mode of mainly taking underground railways and assisting overhead lines, the complexity is high, related specialties are wide, the novel rail transit has the remarkable characteristics of relatively closed operation space, high dependence degree on intelligent control equipment and the like, and the operation safety is challenged seriously.
Track traffic emergencies are often not regular and have strong emergencies and uncertainties, once the emergencies occur, the accidents such as train operation delay or interruption are caused slightly, and disastrous major accidents such as fire, explosion, poisoning and the like are caused seriously; in addition, the emergency evacuation difficulty and the rescue difficulty are increased due to the sealing property of the rail transit environment, and the rescue opportunity is vanished instantly. In an emergency situation, it is unknown whether rail transit emergency rescue personnel can understand their duties and tasks, then react quickly and carry out rescue work orderly and efficiently. It is stated that: if the condition is predetermined, the waste is not predetermined. "aiming at various possible emergencies, making sufficient emergency preparation measures at any moment is the premise of quickly and efficiently dealing with the emergencies. At present, most rail transit emergency response programs are relatively rigid in compiling methods, which mainly show that departments are mechanically filled in responsibility and tasks, less attention is paid to whether the arrangement of various emergency activities is scientific and reasonable, whether the disposal process and the method are efficient, and less attention is paid to whether the planned programs have certain robustness. Therefore, based on the fact that the disposal level and efficiency of the subway emergency directly relate to the service level of the subway, it is necessary to make a smooth, scientific and effective subway emergency response program in consideration of the benefit of rail transit operation companies and the safety of passengers.
Therefore, under the condition of considering the high efficiency of the emergency process, the rail transit emergency response program planning method based on the progress control management method is urgently needed in the technical field of rail transit emergency management.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a rail transit emergency response program planning method based on progress control management aiming at the problems in the prior art, overcomes the defects of rail transit operation enterprises in the prior art on emergency plan management, compiles a rail transit emergency response program according to the flow of the progress control management, establishes an emergency response program optimization model to realize control management on an emergency process, solves the emergency response program by utilizing a particle swarm algorithm, and remarkably improves the planning level of the rail transit emergency response program.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that: the planning method of the rail transit emergency response program based on the progress control management comprises the following steps:
s1, determining the demand analysis of the rail transit emergency response program;
the rail transit emergency response program is an important file for guiding and standardizing emergency response actions and is a most core part in a rail transit emergency plan, so that the research on the programming method of the emergency response program is extremely important. In the process of researching the emergency response program, aiming at the defects that the emergency response program described by the traditional rail transit emergency plan is generally complex, messy and inefficient, the formulated rail transit emergency response program is required to have robustness, high efficiency and performability. The specific analysis is as follows:
1) the robustness requirement is as follows: robustness is usually intuitively defined as: in unforeseeable situations (e.g., environmental disturbances, internal functional organizational barriers, etc.), a system has the ability to adapt. However, this definition does not explicitly distinguish between differences in robustness and resilience. Elasticity refers to the experience of a physical or biological environment, society, organization, or individual in bearing stress and minimizing the impact or harnessing of stress to improve their ability to develop, organize. To better distinguish the robustness from the resiliency of the emergency management mechanism, the robustness of the emergency response procedure may be defined by the emergency response system capabilities, namely: the degree to which the emergency operation response is effective can be maintained when the condition of the element of the emergency response program deteriorates or is in an unpredictable state. In other words, the robustness of an emergency response program refers to the efficiency of the emergency system or the ability to perform programmatically and achieve the result-based requirements specified in the protocol in harsh environments or unexpected situations. Robustness is expressed in insensitivity to external and internal disturbances, and response program robustness is concerned with whether the program execution can achieve the expected result.
2) The high efficiency requirement is as follows: the emergency event is an emergency event and has an urgent requirement on time, so the high efficiency of the emergency response program is also an important aspect which needs attention by the programmer. Generally speaking, the loss of the emergency event is usually in positive correlation with the duration of the emergency event, the loss is generally larger when the time from the occurrence of the emergency event to the elimination of the impact is prolonged, and therefore, the emergency response efficiency is not only one of the direct criteria for judging the quality of an emergency treatment result, but also is a test stone for evaluating the response programming level. In order to enhance the efficiency of emergency actions, in addition to standardizing emergency processes and reducing the complexity of coordination management work, reasonable and efficient emergency activity arrangement is required to be made by considering the direct time relationship of emergency activities.
3) Performability requirements: specific meanings of performability may be interpreted as: the capacity of executing the final step of emergency work according to the content of the rail transit emergency response program is the basic function which the rail transit response program should achieve. Factors influencing the performability of the emergency program are many, and the factors can cause the feasibility of emergency actions, such as macroscopic factors including too specific situation assumption, unclear responsibility division, unclogged communication mechanism and the like, and detailed problems of lack of main object language, ambiguous statements, fuzzy description of resources required by functions and the like. The emergency response program is used for guiding the emergency action to be carried out, so that each activity process is rational, and the performability is the basis and the premise for achieving effective response, therefore, in the process of compiling the subway emergency response program, the formulated result must be ensured to be implemented and carried out completely.
S2, constructing an emergency organization;
due to informatization and integration of rail transit emergency, the rail transit emergency management system is different from a two-layer system of a common emergency organization, and is provided with an emergency leader group, a coordination command working group and a field disposal working group, so that a multi-layer emergency organization formed by a decision layer, a coordination layer and an execution layer is formed. The decision layer is responsible for the unified leadership of the whole emergency work, including resource coordination, action command, supervision, decision and the like; the coordination layer is responsible for collecting comprehensive emergency information and supporting important decisions of field actions; and the responsibility of the executive layer is to perform all actions related to emergency handling, such as emergency rescue, information reporting, resource delivery, site lockout and recovery, etc.
S3, preparing an emergency response program planning method based on demand analysis, wherein the preparation further comprises the following steps:
s31, decomposing the work of the emergency response program: the decomposition method is to decompose a work decomposition structure diagram of a decomposition object layer by layer to obtain a work unit, namely an emergency unit;
s32, emergency responsibility distribution: the work decomposition structure chart corresponds to a main body in an emergency organization mechanism to form a responsibility distribution matrix;
s33, drawing a network diagram: representing the work units obtained by decomposition in the form of a single-code network diagram;
s4, establishing a rail transit emergency response program optimization model, wherein the model is as follows:
G＝minSN+1
s.t.s0＝0
si+ti≤sji＝0，1...,N+1；j∈Qi
sN+1≤U
siis a non-negative integer, rbkt∈[0,rk]，i＝0，1...,N+1；t＝0,1,...,T；k＝1,2,...,K
Where G represents the actual total emergency response time, sN+1LOSS represents the LOSS per unit time reduction in the total time of the emergency response, Q, for the start time of the N +1 th activityiSet, s, representing all immediately after activities of activity iiAnd sjRepresenting the start times, t, of activities i and j, respectivelyiFor the average duration of an activity i, K denotes the kind of updatable resource required for all activities, rbktQuantity of renewable resources of the kth type, delta, expressed in order to prevent the buffering of a service interruption at time tiSetting the degree of contribution of the time buffer to improve the robustness of the emergency response for the time contribution factor, characterized by Activity i, ηtAnd the method is a resource contribution factor and measures the contribution degree of the resource buffer quantity to the robustness of the response program.
And S5, solving the model obtained in the step S4 by adopting a particle swarm algorithm to obtain an optimal planning method of the rail transit emergency response program.
As a modification of the present invention, the step S33 is a step of grid drawing, which strictly prohibits the occurrence of loop and repeat numbering, and only allows one start node and one end node, and the drawing further includes:
and S331, representing the sequential execution order of the emergency activities, wherein the activities arranged before the activity are called the activities immediately before the activity, the activities arranged after the activity are called the activities immediately after the activity, and the activities which can be performed simultaneously with the activity are called the parallel activities of the activity. The sequence of the activities can be generally divided into a logic relationship and an organization relationship, wherein the logic relationship reflects the inherent characteristics of emergency work and cannot be easily changed, and the organization relationship is artificially determined and can be changed. Before drawing a network graph, determining the sequence of emergency activities from a logical relationship to an organization relationship, namely determining the logical relationship first and then determining the organization relationship;
s332, the duration time of the emergency activities is judged in advance, the duration time of a single emergency activity is the basis for calculating the length of all the emergency time and is composed of necessary time and outage time required for completing the emergency activity, and therefore the estimation of the duration time of the emergency activity is directly related to the calculation of the total time of the whole emergency work. If the time is estimated to be too short, excessive stress is applied to emergency activities; on the contrary, if the estimation is too long, the emergency personnel can be relaxed;
s333, planning an emergency response progress plan, firstly, based on the single-code network diagram, the method has the advantages of simple drawing, low complexity of the representation method, clear logical relation, convenience in modification and the like, and the single code is selected to represent the emergency activity. Second, the time and resource schedule are described, determining what resources are available at what time, and what resources are needed at each time during the emergency procedure, etc.
By drawing a network graph, it is beneficial to discover and analyze the inherent correlation between emergency response activities, thereby making the emergency protocol satisfactory for performability.
As an improvement of the present invention, in the step S4, in building a rail transit emergency response program optimization model, high efficiency is achieved by reducing the time G required for emergency response, when the emergency start time is set to 0, the total response time is:
G＝minsN+1
the total loss reduced by time optimization is:
(U-G)*Loss
wherein G represents the actual total time of emergency response, U represents the latest emergency ending time, sN+1LOSS represents a LOSS that decreases every time the total time of the emergency response is shortened by one unit time, which is the start time of the N +1 th activity.
As another improvement of the present invention, the step S4 further includes an added resource buffer, the resource buffer RB of the activity iiThe calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
where K denotes the kind of updatable resource required for all activities, rbktIndicated as the amount of renewable resources of type k buffered at time t to prevent outages.
As still another improvement of the present invention, the step S5 further includes:
s51, setting an initial population: under the condition of not considering the time buffer, sequentially calculating the starting time and the ending time of each activity, generating an initial activity starting time schedule, and randomly setting the initial resource buffer amount of each moment to be 0 or 1;
s52, adaptive value function calculation: selecting a target function as an adaptive value function of the PSO;
s53, updating rule design: the velocity and position of the particle are updated by the formula:
vi＝w*vi+c1*rand()*(p_besti-xi)+c2*rand()*(g_best-xi)
xi＝xi+vi
wherein v isiAnd xiRespectively, the speed and the position of the particle i, p _ best represents the individual history optimal position, and g _ best represents the group history optimal position.
S54, stopping rule design: and when the iteration times of the particle swarm algorithm reach a preset maximum value, terminating the cycle and outputting the maximum fitness individual obtained in the evolution process as an optimal solution.
As a further development of the invention, the time contribution factor δiAnd resource contribution factor ηtFor measuring the robustness gain obtained by setting the time buffer and the resource buffer, respectively, the time contribution factor deltaiThe calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein σiRepresents the duration (construction period) variance of the activity i, and N is the total emergency activity number.
The resource contribution factor ηtThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
wherein r isikIndicating the demand of activity i for renewable resources of type k, StRepresenting the ongoing set of activities at time t.
As a further improvement of the invention, the method maximizes a single target Obj for which loss values can be avoided, which is calculated as follows:
wherein,is a preference index of the emergency decision maker, and indicates that the emergency decision maker prefers to improve the efficiency or robustness of the emergency response.
Compared with the prior art, the invention provides a rail transit emergency response program planning method based on progress control management, which has the beneficial effects that: considering the execution sequence relation and the emergency resource demand condition among the emergency activities in the emergency process, and expressing the execution sequence relation of the activities in the form of an AON (activity-on-node) network diagram, arranging the execution starting time of all the activities, and strengthening the performability of an emergency response program; and establishing an emergency response optimization model by taking the maximum total time of emergency response and the total amount of emergency resources as constraints, optimizing the high efficiency and robustness of a response program, and realizing the dynamic control management of the emergency process.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of the operation of the method of example 1 of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a multi-level rail transit emergency organization according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of the operational flow design of an emergency organization according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is an exploded view of the rail transit emergency response program of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is an exploded view of the track traffic anticipatory response procedure of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is an exploded view of the on-site track traffic handling procedure of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of a single code network plan for an early reply procedure according to the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of a single code network plan for a field disposition procedure of the present invention;
FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating the usage of resource 1 according to the present invention (when the usage changes with time)Tg 6);
FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating the usage of resource 2 according to the present invention (when the usage changes with time)Tg 6);
FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating the usage of resource 1 according to the present invention (when the usage changes with time)Tg of 8);
FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating the usage of resource 2 according to the present invention (when the usage changes with time)Tg of 8);
FIG. 13 shows resource 1 usage over time in accordance with the present inventionSchematic diagram of the change situation (whenTg 6);
FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating the usage of resource 2 according to the present invention (when the usage changes with time)Tg 6).
Detailed Description
The invention will be explained in more detail below with reference to the drawings and examples.
Example 1
A method for planning a rail transit emergency response program based on schedule control management, taking the planning of a station fire response program as an example, and performing optimization analysis on the high efficiency and robustness of the fire emergency plan response program under a certain situation, as shown in fig. 1, includes the following steps:
s1, determining the demand analysis of the rail transit emergency response program;
1) the robustness requirement about the rail transit fire response program is mainly reflected in two points:
firstly, the tolerance to fire uncertain factors is improved. Robustness requirements embody the ability to achieve an expected response result with a perception of uncertainty. In the emergency process, due to the occurrence of uncertain factors, an actual fire scene is difficult to completely coincide with a scene expected by a builder, so that the execution progress of a response program is not always smooth. These uncertainty factors include obstacles at the accident level, resource level, technical level, and management level, and other uncontrollable factors such as secondary events.
Secondly, the tolerance to the invisible work is improved. According to different characteristics of work, emergency work can be divided into explicit work and implicit work, the explicit work is specific and measurable work, the implicit work refers to work such as coordination, waiting and the like which must be carried out and dynamically emerges to complete work, and the emergency work has the characteristics of being 'implicit', 'derivational', 'random' and the like. The workload and impact of implicit work is often underestimated by emergency managers, especially during the fire response program formulation phase.
2) High efficiency is required. The requirement for high efficiency of the fire response program of rail transit is mainly embodied in two points:
the first is the emergency degree of fire rescue. Fire accidents belong to emergent emergencies, the time for rescuers to respond is very limited, and once the rescuers cannot perform timely and effective actions, the optimal rescue opportunity is lost.
Secondly, the severity of the consequences of a fire. When a fire accident occurs, the severity of the consequences of the fire can increase greatly due to the complexity of the rail transit equipment system and the narrowness of the space in which it is located.
3) Executive requirements. Meeting the executive requirements of the rail transit fire response program is a basic condition for playing the guiding role of the response program.
S2, constructing an emergency organization;
the subway emergency organization is mainly composed of three levels of an emergency leader working group, a coordination command working group and a field disposal working group, as shown in fig. 2. The responsibilities of the various hierarchical organization departments are listed below:
1) and (5) leading the working group in emergency. The unified command and decision in charge of major emergency disposal mainly have the following specific responsibilities: determining the formulation principle and policy of an emergency plan, announcing the start and the end of emergency action, arranging emergency work task requirements, expanding emergency response level, auditing reported information and news media draft, and establishing a linkage mechanism to coordinate the external emergency rescue forces of relevant departments at the higher level and public security, fire protection, medical treatment, public transport and the like. The members of the emergency leader working group should be based on the incident level.
2) Coordinating and commanding the work groups. The emergency control system is responsible for the coordination and command work of the whole emergency process and comprises a rail transit network command center and a regional control center, wherein the two centers are respectively provided with a duty master, a comprehensive scheduling, an information scheduling, an equipment scheduling and other positions, the difference is that the network command center is responsible for the emergency command and coordination task of the network-level emergency, and the regional control center is responsible for the emergency command and coordination task of the non-network-level emergency in the jurisdiction area.
3) The workgroup is disposed of on-site. The emergency rescue and treatment system is mainly composed of an early treatment group, an expert consultation group, a vehicle passenger transport group, a field emergency rescue group, an event investigation group, a logistics support group, a communication contact group, a supervision and inspection group, each center emergency work group, a social rescue group and the like.
The design of the operation mechanism of the rail transit emergency organization is shown in figure 3.
S3, preparing an emergency response program planning method based on demand analysis, wherein the preparation further comprises the following steps:
s31, performing Work Breakdown of the emergency response program, in which the Breakdown method is to break down a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) of the Breakdown object by layer to obtain a Work unit, i.e., an emergency event, and in this embodiment, the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is used to perform Breakdown on emergency Work. See fig. 4-6 for a detailed exploded view.
S32, allocating emergency responsibility, wherein the work decomposition structure chart corresponds to the main body in the emergency organization, and the allocation situation of the emergency tasks of each work group and each component department is shown in the following responsibility matrix table 1 under the condition that a subway station has a fire:
TABLE 1 fire emergency responsibility distribution matrix for railway stations
And S33, drawing a network diagram, analyzing the sequence relation among all the constituent units (activities) according to the emergency work decomposition result of the previous subsection, and representing the relation among all the constituent units by using an AON (activity-on-node) network diagram. The coordination command group is mainly responsible for executing the pre-responded sub-activities, and the field disposal group is mainly responsible for executing the field disposed sub-activities. The results are shown in fig. 7 and 8, where activities 1-33 indicate that the emergency content is:
activity 0: the node is a virtual activity and represents a node when a fire disaster occurs;
activity 1: reporting and receiving an alarm after a fire disaster occurs;
and (4) moving 2: after receiving the alarm, the OCC selects a certain means to confirm the authenticity of the fire alarm;
and (3) activity: the running states of relevant professional equipment such as power supply and environmental control are rapidly checked and monitored;
and 4, activity: the fire behavior and the influence caused by the fire behavior are known to the responsible personnel on the spot;
and (5) moving: analyzing the influence range and the development trend of the fire incident, and roughly judging the incident grade;
and 6, movement: reporting the important accident information and basic conclusion obtained at present to an emergency leader group;
and (7) moving: allocating emergency teams and materials to go to a site;
and (8) moving: correspondingly adjusting train operation organizations near the accident site;
and (9) moving: sending rescue applications to nearby social rescue units such as medical treatment, subway public security, fire fighting and the like;
the activity 10: according to the indication of the emergency leader group, releasing fire event information to the whole network and social public;
and (4) moving 11: when the actual existence of the fire is confirmed, the fire situation on the spot is tracked and monitored;
activity X: a virtual activity, representing a node at which the site treatment is initiated;
activity 12: rapidly establishing a site disposal mechanism, and determining the responsibilities and emergency tasks of all emergency disposal personnel in the mechanism;
and (4) moving 13: meeting and taking medical treatment, fire fighting and other social rescue forces to go to specific incident places;
activity 14: starting a facility equipment fire mode, wherein the specific operation mainly comprises the steps of converting a ventilation system into a smoke exhaust mode, setting emergency shutdown of an escalator, opening all gates and the like;
and (4) moving 15: the existing fire rescue materials are rapidly checked and distributed, and the materials mainly come from a station or an adjacent station and a base;
activity 16: arranging facilities such as a quick escape indication mark and the like to assist passengers in the accident station to rapidly exit;
and (6) moving 17: under the condition of ensuring the safety of the rescue personnel, the rescue personnel enter the fire affected area to move the injured passengers to a safety zone;
activity 18: according to the instruction of the coordination command work group, the train staying at the station of the accident is quickly sent away, and other trains are not accepted to stay at the station;
activity 19: the method comprises the following steps of externally releasing current fire accident information, station operation information, passenger evacuation notification, bus connection information and the like in a passenger information system, a rolling display screen and manual broadcasting mode;
and (4) moving 20: before the fire fighters arrive, the fire needs to be dealt with earlier by emergency rescue personnel. Namely, the fire is extinguished by using equipment such as a fire extinguisher and the like under the condition allowed by the environment so as to control the further spread of the fire.
Activity 21: the injury condition of the injured passenger is preliminarily judged or simply treated, and the injured passenger is delivered to a professional medical unit for rescue;
activity 22: organizing and evacuating station passengers;
activity 23: monitoring the driving organization of the station passing by the accident to ensure the driving safety;
activity 24: the bus arrives at the appointed bus connection place to complete the work butt joint;
activity 25: fire fighters are assisted to put out a fire;
activity 26: the injured passenger is lifted to a stretcher or medical staff is assisted to carry out rescue on the spot;
the movement 27 is as follows: and adjusting the operation mode of the station according to the indication of the coordination command group. For example, temporarily stopping all trains from passing the station or allowing trains to pass the station but not providing the function of receiving and delivering passengers at the station;
activity 28: when the fire is completely controlled and all passengers are evacuated and leave the station, taking pictures of the accident influence area to obtain evidence so as to obtain first-hand data of post investigation;
activity 29: the news media on the accident scene is docked, and the related information of the fire accident is released to the public;
and (3) moving 30: dragging or removing the accident train and cleaning the area affected by the fire, thereby providing conditions for recovering the operation as soon as possible;
activity 31: converting the facility equipment fire mode into a normal mode, issuing operation information to subway passengers, and canceling a bus connection line;
activity 32: monitoring passenger flow information of an accident station in real time, and reporting key nodes in the emergency disposal process to a coordination command group;
activity 33: a virtual activity indicates emergency termination.
S4, establishing a rail transit emergency response program optimization model:
1) and (5) describing the scene. Supposing that a fire accident occurs in a certain subway station in Nanjing, so that a plurality of passengers are slightly injured and the fire situation tends to be expanded, the fire accident is preliminarily judged to be a large-level fire accident. In the emergency response process of the fire accident, the emergency resources of the coordination command working group are sufficient, and the time is abundant. The field disposal working group has 16 persons (resource 1), 8 interphones (resource 2) are equipped at the accident field, the maximum emergency response total time is regulated to be 45 minutes (min for short), and the sum of direct loss and indirect loss which can be reduced by reducing the actual emergency response total time by 1min compared with the maximum emergency response total time is 30 ten thousand yuan.
2) And inputting model parameter data. And (3) assigning values for model parameters by replacing real fire response data with Nanjing subway fire drilling record data, and supplementing a small part of missing parameter data by experts. Table 2 below shows the relevant parameters and their values for each activity:
TABLE 2 parameter values for station fire emergency activities
Remarking: activity 32 is to monitor the on-site treatment progress, where no value is assigned.
3) Fire response action scheduling
Generally, when a decision maker makes a decision, a better result can be obtained by considering both the high efficiency and the robustness, and the decision maker is selected by an expert scoring method to obtain the most optimal output when the decision preference indexes are 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6. So that the texts are selected respectively0.5 and 0.6, and outputting the arrangement result of the model about the emergency action progress.
Discussion of the first: when in useTime of flight
The sum of the buffering times Tg for all activities on the critical path is assigned 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10, respectively, resulting in the following set of objective function values, see table 3 below. As can be seen from the table, when Tg is 6, the objective function value Obj is the largest and the value is 297.2. Therefore, to achieve the maximum target value, the method is usedThe sum of the buffering time for all activities on the critical path should be set to 6.
TABLE 3 Obj values corresponding to different Tg values
| Tg(min) | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Obj (Wanyuan) | 247.4 | 248.3 | 290.9 | 272.3 | 278.1 |
The start and end timing of the contingency activities X, 12-31 and 33 when Tg is 6 are shown in table 4 below. As can be seen from the table, a total of 13 emergency activities are set with time buffering, activities 13, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 28, 30 and 31, respectively. For activities with uncertain execution time, the rest of the activities except activity 21 are set with time buffering, which basically ensures the robustness of the fire response action in terms of time. Table 5 records the usage and buffer amounts of resource 1 and resource 2 at each time in the fire response process, where resource 1 is set to have resource buffer amounts of 2 and 1 at time 8-13 and time 17, and the remaining times are 0; and for resource 2, the resource buffer amount is set to 1 at time 8-10 and time 13, the buffer amount is set to 2 at times 11, 12 and 17, and the remaining times are 0.
TABLE 4 Start, end time and amount of buffering time for Emergency Activities: (Tg 6, unit: min)
TABLE 5 use of resources 1 and 2 and buffer capacity (unit: one) at each time during fire response
| t | rr1t | rb1t | rr2t | rb2t | t | rr1t | rb1t | rr2t | rb2t |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 4 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 8 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The time-dependent changes in the usage amounts of resource 1 and resource 2 when Tg is 6 are shown in fig. 9 and fig. 10, respectively. Comparing the two graphs, it can be seen that the trends of the resource 1 and the resource 2 are approximately the same along with the change of time, the usage ratio of the two resources is higher before the time 18, especially in the time period from the time 8 to the time 18, the peak period of the usage of the two emergency resources is, and at the time 11 and the time 12, the usage amount of the resource 1 has reached the total amount of the resource 1, and the usage ratio of the resource 2 is about to be equal to 1. Therefore, when factors that may affect the progress of the emergency response action occur, conflicts in the use of resource 1 and resource 2 may occur primarily in the 8-18 time period.
Discussion II: when in useTime of flight
As can be seen from table 6, when Tg is 8, the objective function value Obj is the largest and the value is 302.3. Therefore, to achieve the maximum target value, the method is usedThe sum of the buffering time for all activities on the critical path is 8.
TABLE 6 Obj values corresponding to different Tg values
| Tg(min) | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Obj (Wanyuan) | 251.0 | 271.5 | 241.0 | 302.3 | 260.7 |
The start and end timing of the contingency activities X, 12-31 and 33 when Tg is 8 are shown in table 7 below. As can be seen from the table, a total of 12 emergency activities are set with time buffering, activities 13, 14, 17, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, 30 and 31, respectively. For activities with uncertain execution time, the rest of the activities, except activities 19 and 21, are set with time buffering, substantially ensuring the robustness of the fire emergency response action in terms of time. Table 8 records the usage and buffer amount of resource 1 and resource 2 at each time in the fire response process, where resource 1 is set to have resource buffer amount of 2 at time 9-13, and the remaining times are all 0; for the resource 2, the resource buffer amount is set to 1 at the time 9-14 and the time 18, the buffer amount is set to 2 at the time 17, and the remaining time is set to 0.
TABLE 7 Start, end time and amount of buffering time for Emergency Activities ((S))Tg 8, unit: min)
TABLE 8 utilization and buffer capacity (unit: one) of resource 1 and resource 2 at each time during the fire response
The time-dependent changes in the usage amounts of resource 1 and resource 2 when Tg is 8 are shown in fig. 11 and fig. 12, respectively. Comparing the two graphs, the trend of the resource 1 and the trend of the resource 2 changing along with the time are approximately the same, and the time period from 9 to 18 is the peak period of the use of the two emergency resources, but the total amount of the resources is not reached. Thus, when factors that may affect the progress of the emergency response action occur, conflicts in the use of resource 1 and resource 2 may occur primarily in the 9-18 time period.
Discussion III: when in useTime of flight
As can be seen from Table 9, when T isWhen g is 6, the objective function value Obj is maximum, and its value is 295.8. Therefore, to achieve the maximum target value, the method is usedThe sum of the buffering time for all activities on the critical path is 6.
TABLE 9 Obj values corresponding to different Tg values
| Tg(min) | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| Obj (Wanyuan) | 279.4 | 281.1 | 295.8 | 276.5 | 281.1 |
The start and end timing of the contingency activities X, 12-31 and 33 when Tg is 6 are shown in table 10 below. As can be seen from the table, a total of 13 emergency activities are set with time buffering, activities 13, 17, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, 30 and 31, respectively. Time buffering is set for activities with uncertain execution time, and robustness of fire emergency response actions in terms of time is well guaranteed. Table 11 records the usage and buffer amount of resource 1 and resource 2 at each time in the fire response process, where resource 1 is set to have resource buffer amount of 2 at time 9-13, and the remaining times are all 0; and for resource 2, the resource buffer amount is set to 1 at time 9-15, the buffer amount is set to 2 at time 17 and 18, and the rest of the time is 0.
TABLE 10 Start, end, and buffer time amounts for Emergency Activities ((S))Tg 6, unit: min)
TABLE 11 usage and buffer volume (unit: one) of resource 1 and resource 2 at each time during the fire response
The time-dependent changes in the usage amounts of resource 1 and resource 2 when Tg is 6 are shown in fig. 13 and fig. 14, respectively. Comparing the two figures, it can be seen that the trends of resource 1 and resource 2 over time are approximately the same. Before the time 18, the use proportion of the two resources is high, and the time periods from the time 9 to the time 18 are peak periods of the use of the two emergency resources, but the total amount of the resources is not reached. Thus, when factors that may affect the progress of the emergency response action occur, conflicts in the use of resource 1 and resource 2 may occur primarily in the 9-18 time period.
As can be seen by comparing tables 3, 6 and 9, when the specific value of Tg is not considered,the average value of the objective function values is maximum, and the objective function values are relatively stable and have minimum volatility; when in useWhen 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6 are taken, respectively, the corresponding optimum Tg is 6, 8 and 6, and the specification can be obtainedMaximum target value at value.
Comparing the output results under three specific conditions can find that:
in terms of the target value, the target values calculated under the three specific conditions do not differ greatly whenAnd Tg is 8, the target value is highest;
in terms of time whenTg ═ 6 andand Tg ═ 6, total emergency response time was 41; when in useAnd Tg is 8, the total time to emergency response is 43; in addition, the setting conditions are buffered with respect to timeIn the case of 1, 2 and 0 activities, respectively, with indeterminate execution times are not time-buffered;
in terms of resources, the resource usage peaks under the three conditions are approximately the same. When in useWhen Tg is 6, the maximum value of the usage amount of the resource 1 at each time is equal to the total amount 16 of the resource 1, and the maximum value of the usage amount of the resource 2 is 7; when in useTg of 8 orWhen Tg is 6, the maximum usage amount of resource 1 at each time is 15, and the maximum usage amount of resource 2 is 7.
In view of the above, it is desirable to provide,in the case of Tg, a preferable target value can be obtained regardless of whether Tg is 2, 4, 6, 8 or 10. When in useWhen Tg is 6, the objective function value of the model is moderate, the total emergency response time is minimum, the possibility of resource conflict is low, and the comprehensive performance of the output result is best; when in useTg is 8, the value of the objective function of the model is the largest, the total time of emergency response is longer, the possibility of resource conflict is low, and the output result is inferior in comprehensive performance; when in useWhen Tg is 6, the value of the objective function of the model is the minimum, the total time of emergency response is the minimum, the possibility of resource conflict is high, and the comprehensive performance of the output result is poor. Therefore, when(i.e., slightly better than efficient), the overall salvageable loss value is higher; when inAnd Tg is 6, the outputted fire emergency response action scheduling result is more reasonable.
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles, essential features, and advantages of the invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited by the foregoing examples, which are provided to illustrate the principles of the invention, and that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is also intended to be covered by the appended claims. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (7)
1. The method for planning the rail transit emergency response program based on the progress control management is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, determining the demand analysis of the rail transit emergency response program;
s2, constructing an emergency organization;
s3, preparing an emergency response program planning method based on demand analysis, wherein the preparation further comprises the following steps:
s31, decomposing the work of the emergency response program, wherein the decomposition method is to decompose the work decomposition structure diagram of the decomposition object layer by layer to obtain a work unit, namely emergency activity;
s32, allocating emergency responsibility, wherein the work decomposition structure diagram corresponds to the main body in the emergency organization mechanism to form a responsibility allocation matrix;
s33, drawing a network diagram; the work units obtained by decomposition are represented in a single-code network graph mode;
s4, establishing a rail transit emergency response program optimization model, wherein the model is as follows:
G＝minSN+1
s.t.s0＝0
si+ti≤sji＝0，1...,N+1；j∈Qi
sN+1≤U
siis a non-negative integer, rbkt∈[0,rk]，i＝0，1...,N+1；t＝0,1,...,T；k＝1,2,...,K
Where G represents the actual total emergency response time, sN+1LOSS represents the LOSS per unit time reduction in the total time of the emergency response, Q, for the start time of the N +1 th activityiSet, s, representing all immediately after activities of activity iiAnd sjRepresenting the start times, t, of activities i and j, respectivelyiFor the average duration of an activity i, K denotes the kind of updatable resource required for all activities, rbktQuantity of renewable resources of the kth type, delta, expressed in order to prevent the buffering of a service interruption at time tiSetting the degree of contribution of the time buffer to improve the robustness of the emergency response for the time contribution factor, characterized by Activity i, ηtThe method comprises the steps of measuring the contribution degree of resource buffer quantity to the robustness of a response program as a resource contribution factor;
and S5, solving the model obtained in the step S4 by adopting a particle swarm algorithm to obtain an optimal planning method of the rail transit emergency response program.
2. The method for planning a rail transit emergency response procedure based on schedule control management of claim 1, wherein the step S33 is a grid drawing process for prohibiting the occurrence of a loop and a repetition number, and only allowing one start node and one end node, the drawing process further comprises:
s331, representing the sequence of executing emergency activities, wherein the sequence of executing emergency activities firstly determines a logical relationship and then determines an organization relationship;
s332, prejudging the duration of emergency activities;
and S333, planning an emergency response progress plan.
3. The method for planning a rail transit emergency response program based on schedule control management of claim 1, wherein the step S4 is implemented in a rail transit emergency response program optimization model to achieve high efficiency by reducing the time G required for emergency response, and when the emergency start time is set to 0, the total response time is:
G＝minsN+1
the total loss reduced by time optimization is:
(U-G)*Loss
wherein G represents the actual total time of emergency response, U represents the latest emergency ending time, sN+1LOSS indicates an emergency for the start time of the N +1 th activityThe loss is reduced for each unit time of shortening of the total response time.
4. The method for planning a track traffic emergency response procedure based on schedule control management of claim 2 or 3, wherein the step S4 further comprises an added resource buffer, the resource buffer RB of the activity iiThe calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
where K denotes the kind of updatable resource required for all activities, rbktIndicated as the amount of renewable resources of type k buffered at time t to prevent outages.
5. The method for planning a rail transit emergency response program based on progress control management of claim 4, wherein the step S5 further comprises:
s51, setting an initial population: under the condition of not considering the time buffer, sequentially calculating the starting time and the ending time of each activity, generating an initial activity starting time schedule, and randomly setting the initial resource buffer amount of each moment to be 0 or 1;
s52, adaptive value function calculation: selecting a target function as an adaptive value function of the PSO;
s53, updating rule design: the velocity and position of the particle are updated by the formula:
vi＝w*vi+c1*rand()*(p_besti-xi)+c2*rand()*(g_best-xi)
xi＝xi+vi
wherein v isiAnd xiRespectively the speed and the position of the particle i, wherein p _ best represents the individual history optimal position, and g _ best represents the group history optimal position;
s54, stopping rule design: and when the iteration times of the particle swarm algorithm reach a preset maximum value, terminating the cycle and outputting the maximum fitness individual obtained in the evolution process as an optimal solution.
6. The method of claim 4 wherein the time contribution factor δ is a time contribution factor of a rail transit emergency response programiAnd resource contribution factor ηtFor measuring the robustness gain obtained by setting the time buffer and the resource buffer, respectively, the time contribution factor deltaiThe calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein σiRepresenting the duration (construction period) variance of the activity i, wherein N is the total emergency activity number;
the resource contribution factor ηtThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
wherein r isikIndicating the demand of activity i for renewable resources of type k, StRepresenting the ongoing set of activities at time t.
7. The method for planning a rail transit emergency response program based on progress control management according to claim 5 or 6, wherein the method maximizes the single target Obj of avoidable loss value, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein,is preference index of emergency decision maker, and indicates that the emergency decision maker selects more preference to improve the efficiency or robustness of emergency responseAnd (4) the bar property.
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