CN109299870A - A kind of national stability appraisal procedure based on event - Google Patents
A kind of national stability appraisal procedure based on event Download PDFInfo
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- CN109299870A CN109299870A CN201811080885.5A CN201811080885A CN109299870A CN 109299870 A CN109299870 A CN 109299870A CN 201811080885 A CN201811080885 A CN 201811080885A CN 109299870 A CN109299870 A CN 109299870A
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Abstract
The national stability appraisal procedure based on event that the invention discloses a kind of solves the high problem of artificial constructed stability index complexity in national stability assessment system of the specific area based on event.The present invention can extract the quantity and accounting situation of the internal conflicts event such as strike, parade, rebellion, revolution, constitutional crisis of generation from the social event of various countries' magnanimity, and the national stability of various countries is assessed by event.Each province of the state (state) stability index situation can be measured from the angle of each province of various countries simultaneously.The invention has the advantages that without carrying out national stability assessment in such a way that manual sorting media event and expert are manually given a mark, the security risk assessment suitable for specific area.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of stability assessment fields, more particularly to the national stability appraisal procedure based on event.
Background technique
National stability includes national stability and political stability.It is main to the qualitative assessment of political stability risk
Just the political factor of country, stability etc. of politics are given a mark quantization respectively there may be the risk factors size of influence, then
Various risk factors scores are taken together into determining risk class.The analysis of state's internal stability or security risk facilitates us and comments
Estimate situations, the analyses such as domestic society of current various countries, political situation, nationalist sentiment and studies and judges various countries' home position etc..
Currently, the projects such as ICEWS, GDELT of US layout, are decomposed into a series of event for complicated political behavior,
And score value coding and quantization are carried out by unit of event, bilateral relation, crisis are formed by constructing the cognitive model based on event
Conflict the abilities such as early warning.
Then, China still carries out stability assessment by traditional national stability appraisal procedure, is with expert's subjectivity
Based on analysis, the method for use mainly includes historical analysis method, the method for comparative analysis and demonstration analysis etc., does not adapt to big data
The requirement of epoch cognitive territory confrontation, there is an urgent need to the big data quantizations point from based on expert's subjective evaluation to based on cognition machint
Analysis transformation, integrated use magnanimity internet news, scout intelligence, military affairs of relationship national security in all kinds of analysis reports, politics,
The global massive information in the fields such as economy, society carries out automatic machine understanding and analysis.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to be with expert master to overcome existing national stability assessment
It sees based on analysis, efficiency and the incomplete problem of consideration, the national stability assessment based on event that the present invention provides a kind of
Method.
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, the national stability appraisal procedure based on event that the invention discloses a kind of is right
Event extraction is carried out in the web page contents of the Chinese English of country variant and index of stability calculates, to support national stability
The applications such as assessment, public sentiment monitoring, include 3 stages, 6 steps altogether:
Stage 1: text-processing
Step (1) obtains original net all in seed website by the distributed reptile program of deployment on the internet
Page.
Step (2) filters out undesirable content to original web page, leaves behind satisfactory text data, building
Base text corpus.
Step (3) automatically extracts out the political event of structuring to base text corpus, and to the promoter of event,
The elements such as recipient, event type, time, place carry out canonical code, form the Chinese and English event data of structuring.
Stage 2: stable calculation
Step (4) is screened according to country variant in event data and different type, according to related to national stability
Event type, filter out all dependent events, and the score value of dependent event is determined according to type.
For step (5) assessing automatically plus expert manually gives a mark and carries out national stability calculating by way of calibration, country is steady
Qualitative both related with the national stability of last month, also related with the accounting of this month internal conflict event, i.e., following calculating is public
Formula:
Wherein, SiIndicate i-th month national stability, Si-1Indicate the (i-1)-th month national stability.NCIndicate i-th
The total score of a month collision event, NPIndicate that the total score of i-th month all positive events, pre indicate preceding 2 months NCAnd NP
The sum of two class events, cur indicate the N of this monthCAnd NPThe sum of two class events, α are influence system of stability last month to this month
Number.
Calculate the collision event accounting situation of this month first, i.e., | NC|/NP；If | NC|/NP> 1, which is set as 1；Work as NP=
0 and NCWhen >=5, | NC|/NPValue be set as 1；Work as NP=0 and NCWhen < 5 | NC|/NPValue be set as 0.5.
The collision event accounting for this month being calculated then is normalized into [- 10,10], i.e.,
Then the weighted influence power of this month collision event is calculated, i.e. weight isIt is when pre+cur is 0, then of that month
Index of stability and last month maintain an equal level.The final national stability for combining last month, weighted comprehensive obtain final stability score.Together
Sample α is influence of the stability to this month last month.
Stage 3: application
Step (6) visualizes national stability according to the stability numerical value of country variant different regions on map
Index and political stability sex index.
Remarkable advantage of the invention are as follows: 1) without largely artificially collecting news corpus or manually reorganizing news, need to only mention
For a small amount of seed website links, newsletter archive collection work can be automatically performed.2) without a large amount of expert analysis mode and cumbersome
Calibration steps, quickly carry out stability scoring, the country of covering and area are more comprehensive.3) pass through visual mode pair
The stability of various countries is shown, more intuitive and efficient.
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention is done with reference to the accompanying drawings and detailed description and is further illustrated, of the invention is above-mentioned
And/or otherwise advantage will become apparent.
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart of the national stability appraisal procedure based on event of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
The national stability appraisal procedure based on event that the invention discloses a kind of is solved in specific area based on event
In national stability assessment system, the high problem of artificial constructed stability index complexity.The present invention can be from various countries' magnanimity
The quantity and accounting of the internal conflicts events such as strike, parade, rebellion, revolution, the constitutional crisis of generation are extracted in social event
Situation assesses the national stability of various countries by event.Each province of the state can be measured from the angle of each province of various countries simultaneously
(state) stability index situation.The invention has the advantages that without the side manually to be given a mark by manual sorting media event and expert
Formula carries out national stability assessment, the security risk assessment suitable for specific area.
The national stability appraisal procedure based on event that the invention discloses a kind of, specifically comprises the following steps:
Stage 1: text-processing
Step (1) obtains original net all in seed website by the distributed reptile program of deployment on the internet
Page.
Step (2) filters out undesirable content to original web page, for example, have messy code, it is non-Chinese and English, advertisement and
The text of non-politics, economic, military class leaves behind satisfactory politics, economic, military class text data, constructs basis text
This corpus.
Step (3) automatically extracts out the political event of structuring to base text corpus, and to the promoter of event,
The elements such as recipient, event type, time, place carry out canonical code, form the Chinese and English event data of structuring.
Stage 2: stable calculation
In step (4) military affairs according to involved in event category table, politics, the event type of economy class and event data
Country variant is screened, and event base relevant to national stability is formed.Thing is given automatically further according to the different score values of event type
Event in part library scores.
For step (5) assessing automatically plus expert manually gives a mark and carries out national stability calculating by way of calibration, country is steady
Qualitative both related with the national stability of last month, also related with the accounting of this month internal conflict event, i.e., following calculating is public
Formula:
Wherein, SiIndicate i-th month national stability, Si-1Indicate the (i-1)-th month national stability.NCIndicate i-th
The total score of a month collision event, NPIndicate that the total score of i-th month all positive events, pre indicate preceding 2 months NCAnd NP
The sum of two class events, cur indicate the N of this monthCAnd NPThe sum of two class events, α are influence system of stability last month to this month
Number.
Calculate the collision event accounting situation of this month first, i.e., | NC|/NP；If | NC|/NP> 1, which is set as 1；Work as NP=
0 and NCWhen >=5, | NC|/NPValue be set as 1；Work as NP=0 and NCWhen < 5 | NC|/NPValue be set as 0.5.
The collision event accounting for this month being calculated then is normalized into [- 10,10], i.e.,
Then the weighted influence power of this month collision event is calculated, i.e. weight isIt is when pre+cur is 0, then of that month
Index of stability and last month maintain an equal level.The final national stability for combining last month, weighted comprehensive obtain final stability score.Together
Sample α is influence of the stability to this month last month.
Stage 3: application
Step (6) visualizes national stability according to the stability numerical value of country variant different regions on map
Index and political stability sex index.
Embodiment 1
Step (1) obtains original net all in seed website by the distributed reptile program of deployment on the internet
Page.
Step (2) filters out undesirable content to original web page by filtering rule, is then sieved by classifier
The relevant text data such as politics, economy, military affairs is selected, base text corpus is constructed.
Step (3) automatically extracts out the event of the types such as the politics, economy, military affairs of structuring to base text corpus,
And the elements such as the promoter to event, recipient, event type, time, place carry out canonical code, are formed in structuring
English event data.
Step (4) is screened according to country variant in event data and different type, according to related to national stability
Event type, filter out all dependent events, and the score value of dependent event is determined according to type.
For step (5) assessing automatically plus expert manually gives a mark and carries out national stability calculating by way of calibration, country is steady
Qualitative both related with the national stability of last month, also related with the accounting of this month internal conflict event, i.e., following calculating is public
Formula:
Wherein, SiIndicate i-th month national stability, Si-1Indicate the (i-1)-th month national stability.NCIndicate i-th
The total score of a month collision event, NPIndicate that the total score of i-th month all positive events, pre indicate preceding 2 months NCAnd NP
The sum of two class events, cur indicate the N of this monthCAnd NPThe sum of two class events, α are influence system of stability last month to this month
Number.
Calculate the collision event accounting situation of this month first, i.e., | NC|/NP；If | NC|/NP> 1, which is set as 1；Work as NP=
0 and NCWhen >=5, | NC|/NPValue be set as 1；Work as NP=0 and NCWhen < 5 | NC|/NPValue be set as 0.5.
The collision event accounting for this month being calculated then is normalized into [- 10,10], i.e.,
Then the weighted influence power of this month collision event is calculated, i.e. weight isIt is when pre+cur is 0, then of that month
Index of stability and last month maintain an equal level.The final national stability for combining last month, weighted comprehensive obtain final stability score.Together
Sample α is influence of the stability to this month last month.
Step (6) assesses its stability risk warning grade according to the stability numerical value of country variant different regions, stablizes
Property Risk-warning grade it is as shown in table 1, (6,10] be perfect condition, (2,6] be kilter, (- 2,2] be general state, (-
It 6, -2] is poor state, (- 10, -6] it is precarious position.Then according to risk class, pass through different color exhibitions on map
Show national stability sex index and political stability sex index.
Table 1
| Grade | Quantify score value | Characterization state |
| Ⅰ | (6,10] | Perfect condition |
| Ⅱ | (2,6] | Kilter |
| Ⅲ | (-2,2] | General state |
| Ⅳ | (-6,-2] | Poor state |
| Ⅴ | (-10,-6] | Precarious position |
The present invention provides a kind of the national stability appraisal procedure based on event, the method for implementing the technical solution
It is many with approach, the above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill of the art
For personnel, various improvements and modifications may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, these improvements and modifications
It should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.All undefined components in this embodiment can be implemented in the prior art.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of national stability appraisal procedure based on event, which is characterized in that for the net of the Chinese English of country variant
Page content carries out event extraction and index of stability calculates, and includes 3 stages:
Stage 1: text-processing, comprising:
Step (1) obtains original web page all in seed website by the distributed reptile program of deployment on the internet；
Step (2) filters out undesirable content to original web page, leaves behind satisfactory text data, building basis
Text corpus；
Step (3) automatically extracts out the political event of structuring to base text corpus, and to the promoter of event, receiving
The elements such as person, event type, time, place carry out canonical code, form the Chinese and English event data of structuring；
Stage 2: stable calculation；
Stage 3: application.
2. a kind of national stability appraisal procedure based on event according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the stage 2,
Including step (4) is screened according to country variant in event data and different type, according to thing relevant to national stability
Part type filters out all dependent events, and the score value of dependent event is determined according to type；
Step (5) carries out national stability SiCalculate, national stability was both related with the national stability of last month, also with this moon
The accounting of internal conflict event is related, i.e., following calculation formula:
Wherein, SiIndicate i-th month national stability, Si-1Indicate the (i-1)-th month national stability.NCIt indicates i-th month
The total score of collision event, NPIndicate that the total score of i-th month all positive events, pre indicate preceding 2 months NCAnd NPTwo classes
The sum of event, cur indicate the N of this monthCAnd NPThe sum of two class events, α are influence coefficient of the stability to this month last month；
Calculate the collision event accounting situation of this month first, i.e., | NC|/NP；If | NC|/NP> 1, which is set as 1；Work as NP=0 and
NCWhen >=5, | NC|/NPValue be set as 1；Work as NP=0 and NCWhen < 5 | NC|/NPValue be set as 0.5.
The collision event accounting for this month being calculated then is normalized into [- 10,10], it may be assumed that
Then the weighted influence power of this month collision event is calculated, i.e. weight isIt is when pre+cur is 0, then of that month to stablize
Index and last month maintain an equal level；
The final national stability for combining last month, weighted comprehensive obtain final stability score, α be last month stability to this
The influence of the moon.
3. a kind of national stability appraisal procedure based on event according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the stage 3,
Including step (6) visualizes national stability sex index according to the stability numerical value of country variant different regions on map
And political stability sex index.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111125639A (en) * | 2019-12-23 | 2020-05-08 | 中国电子科技集团公司第二十八研究所 | Bilateral relation quantitative analysis method based on numerical value regression and computer storage medium |
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| CN103744877A (en) * | 2013-12-20 | 2014-04-23 | 潘大庆 | Public opinion monitoring application system deployed in internet and application method |
| CN104965931A (en) * | 2015-07-30 | 2015-10-07 | 成都布林特信息技术有限公司 | Big data based public opinion analysis method |
| CN106446224A (en) * | 2016-09-30 | 2017-02-22 | 广州特道信息科技有限公司 | Information discovery method based on large data |
| CN107844609A (en) * | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-27 | 武汉理工大学 | A kind of emergency information abstracting method and system based on style and vocabulary |
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2018
- 2018-09-17 CN CN201811080885.5A patent/CN109299870B/en active Active
Patent Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101408883A (en) * | 2008-11-24 | 2009-04-15 | 电子科技大学 | Method for collecting network public feelings viewpoint |
| CN103744877A (en) * | 2013-12-20 | 2014-04-23 | 潘大庆 | Public opinion monitoring application system deployed in internet and application method |
| CN104965931A (en) * | 2015-07-30 | 2015-10-07 | 成都布林特信息技术有限公司 | Big data based public opinion analysis method |
| CN106446224A (en) * | 2016-09-30 | 2017-02-22 | 广州特道信息科技有限公司 | Information discovery method based on large data |
| CN107844609A (en) * | 2017-12-14 | 2018-03-27 | 武汉理工大学 | A kind of emergency information abstracting method and system based on style and vocabulary |
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111125639A (en) * | 2019-12-23 | 2020-05-08 | 中国电子科技集团公司第二十八研究所 | Bilateral relation quantitative analysis method based on numerical value regression and computer storage medium |
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