CN109274131A - New energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative estimation method based on Probability Statistics Theory - Google Patents
New energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative estimation method based on Probability Statistics Theory Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative estimation method based on Probability Statistics Theory, comprising the following steps: step 1, new energy digestion capability non-sequential computation model is established based on system under evaluation；Step 2, the probability distribution that new energy abandons electric electric power is calculated；Step 3, it calculates new energy and abandons electric rate λ, the quantitative evaluation that electricity rate λ completes new energy digestion capability is abandoned by new energy.Quantitative estimation method of the invention can provide guidance for management and running real work；Traditional time stimulatiom process is substituted using convolutional calculation, it can be to avoid repeated samples in traditional Monte-carlo Simulation Method, the process of calculating, under the premise of not influencing precision, computational efficiency is increased substantially, provides effective way for RES(rapid evaluation system) new energy digestion capability.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to electric power network control field, in particular to a kind of new energy based on Probability Statistics Theory dissolves energy
Power non-sequential quantitative estimation method.
Background technique
Currently, domestic and foreign scholars, which have been directed to new energy digestion capability, expands a series of researchs, however existing research at
Fruit is difficult for actual electric network regulation operation work and provides reference, and reason mainly has following two aspect:
First, existing research is conceived to new energy installation construction plan and its optimal generation scheme with conventional power unit more,
To conventional power unit peak regulation rate, power plant for self-supply's ratio and direct current in actual motion send outside plan etc. factors how quantization influence new energy
Research in terms of digestion capability is then less, can not propose guidance instruction to power scheduling practical application；
Second, current most of algorithms researched and proposed are using the time stimulatiom method based on Monte Carlo simulation as base
Plinth, in actually calculating, repeated samples and time stimulatiom are more time-consuming, and efficiency is lower.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of, and the new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantization based on Probability Statistics Theory is commented
Method is estimated, to solve above-mentioned technical problem.Quantitative estimation method of the invention can provide for management and running real work
Guidance；Traditional time stimulatiom process is substituted using convolutional calculation, can improve operation efficiency in the case where not influencing precision.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
A kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative estimation method based on Probability Statistics Theory, comprising the following steps:
Step 1, the timing computation model of new energy digestion capability is established based on system under evaluation；
New energy digestion capability Pn(t) calculation formula are as follows:
Pn(t)=Pl,max(t)-Pg,min(t)
In formula, Pl,max(t) t moment system loading, P are indicatedg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output is indicated；
New energy abandons electric power Pn,ab(t) calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, Pn,max(t) t moment new energy theoretical maximum power output, P are indicatedn(t) it is dissolved for the new energy of system t moment
Ability；
Step 2, the probability distribution that new energy abandons electric electric power is calculated；
New energy abandons electric electric power Pn,ab(t) probability-distribution function fZ(z) by Pn,max(t) and Pn(t) probability density function is done
Convolution obtains, expression formula are as follows:
Wherein fX(x) P is indicatedn,max(t) probability density function, fY(y) P is indicatedn(t) probability density function；
Step 3, it calculates new energy and abandons electric rate λ, commented by the quantization that new energy abandons electricity rate λ completion new energy digestion capability
Estimate；New energy abandons electric rate λ calculation formula are as follows:
In formula,WithRespectively indicate Pn,ab(t) and Pn,max(t) mean value, it is close that the two passes through its probability respectively
Degree function acquires, calculation formula are as follows:
F in formulaX(x) P is indicatedn,max(t) probability density function, fY(y) P is indicatedn(t) probability density function.
Further, when considering conventional power unit peak regulation rate β, the calculation formula of the minimum technology power output of conventional power unit are as follows:
Pg,min(t)=Pg,max(t)×(1-β)
Wherein, Pg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedg,max(t) t moment conventional power unit is indicated most
Big technology power output, β are conventional power unit peak regulation rate.
Further, when considering conventional power unit peak regulation rate β and power plant for self-supply's proportion omegab, the minimum technology power output of conventional power unit
Calculation formula are as follows:
Pg,min(t)=Pg,max(t)×(1-β)×(1-ω)+Pg,max(t)×ω
Wherein, Pg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedg,max(t) t moment conventional power unit is indicated most
Big technology power output, β are conventional power unit peak regulation rate, and ω is power plant for self-supply's ratio.
Further, when considering to send outside for a long time in conventional power unit peak regulation rate β, power plant for self-supply's proportion omegab and direct current, conventional machine
The calculation formula of the minimum technology power output of group are as follows:
Pg,min(t)=(Pl,max(t)+Pw)×(1+α)×(1-β)×(1-ω)+(Pl,max(t)+Pw)×(1+α)×ω
Wherein, Pg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedwFor electricity sent outside, Pl,max(t) when indicating t
Etching system load, α are the conventional power unit percentage reserve of system, and β is conventional power unit peak regulation rate, and ω is power plant for self-supply's ratio.
Further, when considering short-term spot exchange, thermoelectricity minimum technology power output is not influenced.
It further, further include step 4；
Step 4, by the quantitative evaluation of new energy digestion capability and given target component, calculating system is receptive new
What energy installation or system needed sends scale and peak regulation rate outside.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
The present invention has comprehensively considered the factors such as conventional power unit control characteristic and new energy installation accounting in actual motion, not
Under the premise of influencing computational accuracy, new energy digestion capability assessment is reduced to a non-sequential computational problem, and establish non-
Timing computation model；Probability Distribution Model based on new energy theory power output and system consumption space, is directly calculated using convolution
Obtain the probability Distribution Model of new energy digestion capability.On the one hand quantitative estimation method of the invention avoids traditional Monte Carlo
Repeated samples in analogy method, calculating process, on the other hand using convolutional calculation instead of traditional time-domain-simulation process,
Under the premise of not influencing precision, computational efficiency is increased substantially.
Further, by means of the present invention, disappearing without network constraint system new energy based on peak modulation capacity can be established
It receives theoretical model, and considers the new energy consumption model that power plant for self-supply, direct current send outside, pass through the analysis to new energy power producing characteristics
Research can analyze new energy installation, load, conventional power unit peak regulation rate, power plant for self-supply's ratio and direct current and send outside and new energy abandoning
Relationship between electric rate can carry out pool optimization to the operating parameter in the work of actual electric network operation plan, is conducive to
The grid operation mode of new energy consumption.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is that the new energy in quantitative estimation method of the invention dissolves theoretical schematic block diagram.
Specific embodiment
Invention is further described in detail in the following with reference to the drawings and specific embodiments.
Referring to Fig. 1, a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative evaluation based on Probability Statistics Theory of the invention
Method, comprising the following steps:
Step 1, the timing computation model of new energy digestion capability is established based on system under evaluation；
New energy digestion capability Pn(t) calculation formula are as follows:
Pn(t)=Pl,max(t)-Pg,min(t)
In formula, Pl,max(t) t moment system loading, P are indicatedg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output is indicated；
New energy abandons electric power Pn,ab(t) calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, Pn,max(t) t moment new energy theoretical maximum power output, P are indicatedn(t) it is dissolved for the new energy of system t moment
Ability；
Step 2, the probability distribution that new energy abandons electric electric power is calculated；
Pn,max(t) only, P related with resourcen(t) only related with the load of system and start-up mode, they are mutually indepedent
Stochastic variable, according to probability theory, new energy abandons electric electric power Pn,ab(t) probability-distribution function fZ(z) by Pn,max(t) and Pn(t)
Probability density function do convolution acquisition, expression formula are as follows:
Wherein fX(x) P is indicatedn,max(t) probability is close
Spend function, fY(y) P is indicatedn(t) probability density function.
Step 3, it calculates new energy and abandons electric rate λ, commented by the quantization that new energy abandons electricity rate λ completion new energy digestion capability
Estimate；New energy abandons electric rate λ calculation formula are as follows:
In formula,WithRespectively indicate Pn,ab(t) and Pn,max(t) mean value, it is close that the two passes through its probability respectively
Degree function acquires, calculation formula are as follows:
F in formulaX(x) P is indicatedn,max(t) probability density function, fY(y) P is indicatedn(t) probability density function.
Step 4, by the quantitative evaluation of new energy digestion capability and given target component, calculating system is receptive new
What energy installation or system needed sends scale and peak regulation rate outside.
Wherein, when considering conventional power unit peak regulation rate β, the calculation formula of the minimum technology power output of conventional power unit are as follows:
Pg,min(t)=Pg,max(t)×(1-β)
Wherein, Pg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedg,max(t) t moment conventional power unit is indicated most
Big technology power output, β are conventional power unit peak regulation rate.
When considering conventional power unit peak regulation rate β and power plant for self-supply's proportion omegab, the calculating of the minimum technology power output of conventional power unit is public
Formula are as follows:
Pg,min(t)=Pg,max(t)×(1-β)×(1-ω)+Pg,max(t)×ω
Wherein, Pg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedg,max(t) t moment conventional power unit is indicated most
Big technology power output, β are conventional power unit peak regulation rate, and ω is power plant for self-supply's ratio.
When considering to send outside for a long time in conventional power unit peak regulation rate β, power plant for self-supply's proportion omegab and direct current, the minimum skill of conventional power unit
The calculation formula of art power output are as follows:
Pg,min(t)=(Pl,max(t)+Pw)×(1+α)×(1-β)×(1-ω)+(Pl,max(t)+Pw)×(1+α)×ω
Wherein, Pg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedwFor electricity sent outside, Pl,max(t) when indicating t
Etching system load, α are the conventional power unit percentage reserve of system, and β is conventional power unit peak regulation rate, and ω is power plant for self-supply's ratio.
And when considering short-term spot exchange, it does not need to increase thermoelectricity booting to guarantee electricity sent outside, i.e., to thermoelectricity minimum
Technology power output does not influence.
Embodiment 1
Referring to FIG. 1, a kind of quantitative estimation method of new energy digestion capability based on Probability Statistics Theory of the invention,
It is calculated quickly, can be instructed the operating parameter in the work of actual electric network operation plan, specifically includes the following steps:
Step 1, the optimized evaluation model based on regional power grid new energy characteristic.
Firstly, defining shown in the wave characteristic γ such as formula (1) of new energy power output:
γ=| Pt-Pt-Δt|/S (1)
In formula (1), Pt-Pt-ΔtFor the difference of two neighboring sampled point new energy power output, S is new energy installed capacity；Wave
Dynamic characteristic γ parameter reflects the rate of change of new energy in a short time.
By for statistical analysis in the wave characteristic of different periods to regional power grid (by taking Northwest Grid as an example) new energy
It was found that: for Northwest Grid, when Δ t=15 minutes, wave characteristic γ value is under most situations (99.5%)
Less than 5%；That is, it is believed that the rate of change of every 15 minutes new energy power output is not more than the 5% of its installed capacity.
Currently, the generator connecting in parallel with system administrative provisions of national grid generally require conventional power unit regulations speed be more than or equal to 2% nominal output/
Minute, i.e., its 15 minutes regulating powers should be greater than 30% nominal output；There are also 10,000,000 kilowatts or more in Northwest Grid to have fastly
The Hydropower Unit of fast responding ability can quickly be adjusted in 15 minutes between 0-100%, therefore conventional power unit in Northwest Grid
Regulating power can satisfy new energy power output variation, that is to say, that Northwest Grid new energy digestion capability quantitative evaluation
In calculating, conventional power unit Climing constant can be ignored.
By above-mentioned analysis it is found that new energy digestion capability quantitative appraisement model t moment state just and last moment
T-1 is unrelated, can be reduced to a non-sequential computation model, at this point, system new energy power output is only by new energy theory function
Rate and consumption space determine, as shown in formula (2):
Wherein, Pl,max(t) t moment system loading, P are indicatedg,min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output is indicated,
Pn,max(t) t moment new energy theoretical maximum power output is indicated.Generation of electricity by new energy is wind-powered electricity generation or photovoltaic power generation.In formula (2), when new energy
When theory power output in source is less than or equal to system new energy digestion capability, it is theoretical that the new energy maximum output of t period is equal to new energy
Power output；When new energy theory power output is greater than system new energy digestion capability, it is new that the new energy maximum output of t period is equal to system
Energy consumption ability.
It can also be by abandoning electric electric power statement, system new energy abandons electric electric power Pn,ab(t) calculation formula are as follows:
In above formula, Pn(t) space, P are dissolved for t moment system new energyn,max(t) go out for t moment new energy theoretical maximum
Power.
Step 2, the foundation and calculating of new energy digestion capability probability Distribution Model.
According to the new energy rapid qualitative evaluation model provided in formula (2), it can be seen that new energy digestion capability mainly takes
Space certainly is dissolved in new energy theory power output and system, and by formula (2) it can be seen that new energy digestion capability can be written as it
The linear expression that theory is contributed with system consumption space, and new energy theory power output and system consumption space are that satisfaction is certain general
Rate distribution and mutually independent random variables, then new energy can be established using convolution based on the probability-distribution function of both
The probability Distribution Model of source digestion capability, as the effective tool of quantitative evaluation new energy digestion capability.
The probability Distribution Model of new energy theory power output can be obtained based on new energy statistics rule and wind, light installation situation
It arrives.For the probability Distribution Model in system consumption space, can acquire by the following method.
From formula (2) as can be seen that in actual electric network operation, new energy dissolves space mainly by the minimum technology of conventional power unit
Power output and system loading determine.And for the minimum technology of conventional power unit power output for, mainly with conventional power unit peak regulation rate, from
Long-term and stock sends correlation outside in standby power plant's ratio, direct current.
Establish conventional power unit peak regulation rate β, power plant for self-supply's proportion omegab, long-term in direct current and stock is sent outside and new energy consumption is empty
Between between quantitative relationship model.
The relationship of the minimum technology of conventional power unit peak regulation rate β and conventional power unit power output are as follows:
Pg,min=Pg,max×(1-β) (4)
Wherein, Pg,minIt contributes for the minimum technology of t moment conventional power unit, Pg,maxFor thermoelectricity maximum technology power output, β is normal
Advise peak load regulation rate.
From the point of view of current grid operating conditions, the power plant for self-supply of access system does not participate in peak-load regulating generally, then formula (4) becomes
For
Pg,min=Pg,max×(1-β)×(1-ω)+Pg,max×ω (5)
Wherein, Pg,minIt contributes for the minimum technology of t moment conventional power unit, Pg,maxFor thermoelectricity maximum technology power output, β is normal
Peak load regulation rate is advised, ω is power plant for self-supply's ratio.
It is sent outside for a long time in direct current and needs to increase thermoelectricity booting to guarantee electricity sent outside, i.e., it is equivalent to while increasing system
Load and thermoelectricity start-up mode, then considering that sending rear system hair electric equilibrium constraint in direct current outside for a long time becomes
Pn(t)=Pl,max(t)+Pw-Pg,min(t) (6)
Wherein, PnIt (t) is the practical power generating value of system t moment new energy, Pl,max(t) t moment system loading, P are indicatedg,min
(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedwFor electricity sent outside.
Direct current stock is sent outside, main purpose is to increase direct current when abandonment abandoning optical phenomenon occurs in system and send function outside
Rate is to guarantee that new energy dissolves；So not needing to increase thermoelectricity booting, i.e., system minimum technology power output is not influenced.
The new energy digestion capability quantitative evaluation schematic diagram provided according to Fig. 1, determine system convention peak load regulation rate, from
After standby power plant's ratio and DC operation mode arrange, in conjunction with system loading rate, upper reserve factor and load prediction results, so that it may
The timing curve in reflection system consumption space is obtained, its probability-distribution function is then obtained.
So far, the probability-distribution function in new energy consumption space and new energy theory power output can be obtained.Due in actual motion,
New energy theory power output and system consumption space are to meet certain probability distribution and mutually independent random variables, then according to new
Energy consumption mechanism can obtain formula (7) establishment:
Wherein fx(x) P is indicatedn,max(t) probability density function, fY(y) P is indicatedn(t) probability density function；
New energy abandons electric rate λ calculation formula are as follows:
In formula,WithRespectively indicate Pn,ab(t) and Pn,max(t) mean value, it is close that the two passes through its probability respectively
Degree function acquires:
From formula (8) as can be seen that in the probability-distribution function f for acquiring the electric electric power of new energy abandoningZ(z) go out with new energy theory
The probability-distribution function f of powerY(y) after, it can further obtain new energy and averagely abandon electrical power and new energy average theory power output,
Then it directly calculates new energy and abandons electric rate λ.
It can be seen that the new energy digestion capability quantitative appraisement model solution side based on probability statistics from above-mentioned solution procedure
Method can be to avoid repeated samples in traditional Monte-carlo Simulation Method, the process of calculating, under the premise of not influencing precision, greatly
Amplitude improves computational efficiency, provides effective way for RES(rapid evaluation system) new energy digestion capability.
The present invention contributes statistical data according to new energy in actual motion, in conjunction with current conventional power unit regulation performance situation,
Propose new energy digestion capability non-sequential computation model；Space is dissolved according to new energy theory power output type and system new energy
Probability-distribution function establishes the probability-distribution function that system new energy abandons electric electric power in conjunction with convolution theory, then obtains system abandoning
Electric rate provides effective way for RES(rapid evaluation system) new energy digestion capability.By the research of project key technology, base is established
Theoretical model is dissolved without network constraint system new energy in peak modulation capacity, and considers the new energy that power plant for self-supply, direct current send outside
Model is dissolved, and by the analysis and research to new energy power producing characteristics, proposes the Optimization Solution algorithm of the model.It is basic herein
On, analysis new energy installation, load, conventional power unit peak regulation rate, power plant for self-supply's ratio and direct current, which are sent outside, abandons electric rate with new energy
Between relationship.On this basis, for given target component, the receptive new energy installation of calculating system or system need
Send scale, peak regulation rate etc. outside, also have positive directive significance for systems organization.Quantitative estimation method of the invention is with new energy
Based on source statistics rule and power grid consumption space, according to Probability Statistics Theory, quickly to power grid new energy digestion capability into
Row quantum chemical method.Therefore, mainly solution field is in dispatching of power netwoks operation work for this research, is dispatched with short-term, ultra-short term
It is target that plan, which promotes new energy digestion capability, removes the principal element of Long-term planning and conventional power unit generation schedule, is based on adjusting
The analysis of peak energy power mainly considers that power plant for self-supply, direct current send new energy consumption quantitative model outside, research conventional power unit peak regulation rule,
Power plant for self-supply's ratio, transregional direct current send outside, upper reserve factor etc. abandons the influence of electric rate to new energy, is management and running real work
Guidance is provided；Meanwhile traditional time stimulatiom process is substituted using convolutional calculation and is mentioned significantly in the case where not influencing precision
High operation efficiency.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative estimation method based on Probability Statistics Theory, which is characterized in that including
Following steps:
Step 1, the timing computation model of new energy digestion capability is established based on system under evaluation；
New energy digestion capability Pn(t) calculation formula are as follows:
Pn(t)=PL, max(t)-PG, min(t)
In formula, PL, max(t) t moment system loading, P are indicatedG, min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output is indicated；
New energy abandons electric power PN, ab(t) calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, PN, max(t) t moment new energy theoretical maximum power output, P are indicatednIt (t) is the new energy digestion capability of system t moment；
Step 2, the probability distribution that new energy abandons electric electric power is calculated；
New energy abandons electric electric power PN, ab(t) probability-distribution function fZ(z) by PN, max(t) and Pn(t) probability density function does convolution
It obtains, expression formula are as follows:
Wherein fX(x) P is indicatedN, max(t) probability density function, fY(y) P is indicatedn(t) probability density function；
Step 3, it calculates new energy and abandons electric rate λ, the quantitative evaluation that electricity rate λ completes new energy digestion capability is abandoned by new energy；Newly
The energy abandons electric rate λ calculation formula are as follows:
In formula,WithRespectively indicate PN, ab(t) and PN, max(t) mean value, the two pass through its probability density function respectively
It acquires, calculation formula are as follows:
F in formulaX(x) P is indicatedN, max(t) probability density function, fY(y) P is indicatedn(t) probability density function.
2. a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative evaluation side based on Probability Statistics Theory according to claim 1
Method, which is characterized in that when considering conventional power unit peak regulation rate β, the calculation formula of the minimum technology power output of conventional power unit are as follows:
PG, min(t)=PG, max(t)×(1-β)
Wherein, PG, min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedG, max(t) t moment conventional power unit maximum skill is indicated
Art power output, β are conventional power unit peak regulation rate.
3. a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative evaluation side based on Probability Statistics Theory according to claim 1
Method, which is characterized in that when considering conventional power unit peak regulation rate β and power plant for self-supply's proportion omegab, the minimum technology power output of conventional power unit
Calculation formula are as follows:
PG, min(t)=PG, max(t)×(1-β)×(1-ω)+PG, max(t)×ω
Wherein, PG, min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedG, max(t) t moment conventional power unit maximum skill is indicated
Art power output, β are conventional power unit peak regulation rate, and ω is power plant for self-supply's ratio.
4. a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative evaluation side based on Probability Statistics Theory according to claim 1
Method, which is characterized in that when considering to send outside for a long time in conventional power unit peak regulation rate β, power plant for self-supply's proportion omegab and direct current, conventional power unit
The calculation formula of minimum technology power output are as follows:
PG, min(t)=(PL, max(t)+Pw)×(1+α)×(1-β)×(1-ω)+(PL, max(t)+Pw)×(1+α)×ω
Wherein, PG, min(t) t moment conventional power unit minimum technology power output, P are indicatedwFor electricity sent outside, PL, max(t) t moment system is indicated
System load, α are the conventional power unit percentage reserve of system, and β is conventional power unit peak regulation rate, and ω is power plant for self-supply's ratio.
5. a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative evaluation side based on Probability Statistics Theory according to claim 4
Method, which is characterized in that when considering short-term spot exchange, thermoelectricity minimum technology power output is not influenced.
6. a kind of new energy digestion capability non-sequential quantitative evaluation side based on Probability Statistics Theory according to claim 1
Method, which is characterized in that further include step 4；
Step 4, pass through the quantitative evaluation of new energy digestion capability and given target component, the receptive new energy of calculating system
What installation or system needed sends scale and peak regulation rate outside.
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