CN109214655A - The construction method of power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system - Google Patents
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Abstract
A kind of power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system construction method, the destination layer and first class index of building power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system first, destination layer is evaluation result, and first class index includes four energy environment, the electricity consumption industrial structure, power construction level and Electricity Investment level aspects；Secondly the two-level index of building power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system, the type of two-level index include accounting index, speedup relationship index and desired index；Then two-level index is normalized；First class index and two-level index weight are determined according to regional power grid development plan, and each metrics evaluation value in the period of the region is obtained using variable weight statistical method；Finally using the influence of the similarity to ideal solution method analysis two-level index in multiple targets fusion decision, the regional power grid construction level and economic structure are evaluated.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power grid construction level and economic development relevant evaluation more particularly to a kind of power grid construction levels and warp
The construction method of structure of helping and its speedup assessment indicator system.
Background technique
In recent years, power grid construction level in China's develops rapidly, and economic structure is further reasonable, to the various aspects of existing power grid
Evaluation can to the following Electric Power Network Planning and transformation provide decision-making foundation.Power grid is a complication system, including power grid construction, electricity
Various aspects, the everyways such as net operation, distribution network planning, power transmission and transformation network, input and output, Technological Economy have scholar studying,
Formulate the appraisement system of different emphasis.Rarer combination many aspects factor carries out the index system of overall merit at present,
Reach common understanding not yet in terms of electric network synthetic evaluation, and inadequate to attention degree of the new energy development in power grid assessment.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art, it is an object of the present invention to provide a kind of power grid construction level and economic structure and its
The construction method of speedup assessment indicator system.This method pays close attention to speedup index, has regional development long-term plan reasonability in mind,
Wherein variable weight statistical method can adapt to the difference of different zones Electric Power Network Planning emphasis, and approaching rationality solution method can be sufficiently sharp
With initial data and there is clearly geometric meaning, so that the application range of index system is wider and more intuitive.
The purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of construction method of power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system, it is characterized in that,
Method includes the following steps:
Step 1, building power grid construction level and the destination layer and level-one of economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system refer to
Mark, the destination layer are evaluation result, and the first class index relates generally to current electric grid construction level and future development it is expected, packet
Include four energy environment, the electricity consumption industrial structure, power construction level and Electricity Investment level aspects；
Step 2, according to regional power grid to be evaluated record each period each index data, construct power grid construction water
The flat two-level index with economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system shares 32:
The energy environment index includes 7: fossil energy power generation transformation efficiency, new energy replace traditional thermoelectricity dioxy
Change carbon emission benefit, Development of Electric Vehicles CO2 emission benefit, electric car construction expectation, coal motor group are averagely powered coal
Carbon dioxide emission reduction amount is shut down in consumption expectation, thermoelectricity, thermoelectricity creates and shuts down index；
The electricity consumption industrial structure index includes 5: industry electricity consumption amount accounting, industry GDP accounting, industry electricity consumption economy
Return ratio, industrial economy contribution rate, industry restructuring ratio per capita；
The horizontal index of the power construction includes 12: total power generation speedup, new energy speedup, newly-started new energy hair
Open up speedup, generation of electricity by new energy amount accounting, generation of electricity by new energy increment accounting, extra-high voltage grid construction level, rate of electricity loss from transmission line, new energy
Source power generation level, power transformation capacity construction level, highest are by electric power-generated energy relation with increase, auxiliary power consumption rate of power plant, periphery power grid
It is coupled horizontal；
The horizontal index of the Electricity Investment includes 8: production of energy elasticity indexes, power generation elasticity indexes, the energy
Elastic analysis index, electricity consumption elasticity indexes, new energy efficiency of investment, power grid construction invest accounting, electricity sales amount coefficient of stabilization, people
Equal electricity consumption speedup；
Wherein 14 indexs are common index in power grid appraisement system, and this will not be repeated here, other 18 indexs are by following
Various calculating:
Fossil energy power generation transformation efficiency R1i:
Wherein, subscript i indicates each variable in the value of the i-th period；FECijFor the i-th period power generation intermediate consumption j kind
Fossil energy, in total 5 kinds of fossil energies, including coal, petroleum, crude oil, diesel oil, fuel oil, PniFor the generation of electricity by new energy of the i-th period
Amount；PsumiFor the i-th period total power generation；
New energy replaces traditional thermoelectricity CO2 emission benefit R2i:
Wherein, subscript t indicates t type new energy, totally 4 kinds of new energy types, i.e. T=4, including wind-powered electricity generation, water power, core
Electricity, solar power generation；NCitIndicate the new energy installed capacity of the i-th period；ONLTitHourage can be utilized for the i-th period of new energy；
CO2For the discharge amount of unit kilowatt hour thermoelectricity carbon dioxide；
Development of Electric Vehicles CO2 emission benefit R3i:
R3i=Nvi*CO2
Wherein, NviFor the i-th period electric car quantity；
Electric car construction expectation R4i:
Wherein, NEFor the electric car quantitative value of expectation construction, nd is it is expected to reach to expect to spend the time；
Coal motor group be averaged net coal consumption rate expectation R5i:
Wherein, PiFor the i-th period power generation standard coal consumption index；PEGenerate electricity standard coal consumption index desired value；
Thermoelectricity shuts down carbon dioxide emission reduction amount R6i:
R6i=(Nfci-Nfni)*CO2
Wherein, NfciInstalled capacity is created for the i-th period thermoelectricity；NfniCapacity, CO are shut down for the i-th period thermoelectricity2For unit
The discharge amount of kilowatt hour thermoelectricity carbon dioxide；
Generation of electricity by new energy amount accounts for the accounting R7 of total power generationi:
Wherein, PniFor the i-th period generation of electricity by new energy amount；PsumiFor the i-th period total power generation
The new increment life insurance of new energy accounts for the accounting R8 of total power generation incrementi:
Wherein, Psumi-1It was the total power generation of a upper period, Pni-1It was the generation of electricity by new energy amount of a upper period；
Extra-high voltage grid construction level R9i:
Wherein, wckFor the weight of kth kind high pressure level, weight is determined by voltage swing, there is K=7 kind high pressure level, packet
Include 1000,750,500,330,220,110,35 kilovolts；PhikFor the construction capacity of the i-th period kth high pressure level；
The horizontal R10 of generation of electricity by new energyi:
Wherein, wtAccounting weight it is expected for the t type energy；PnctiCapacity is increased newly for t type the i-th period of the energy；
PnhtiHourage can be utilized for t type the i-th period of the energy, T is new energy type sum, T=4；
Power transformation capacity construction level R11i:
Wherein, PckiFor the i-th period kth grade transformer equipment capacity；
Highest is by electric power-generated energy relation with increase R12i:
PiniFor the i-th period power grid import electricity, PsumdiFor the i-th period total power generation increment；
Periphery power grid is coupled horizontal R13i:
Wherein, Pini-1Indicated the import electricity of a upper period；PoutiElectricity, Pout are exported for the i-th period power gridi-1Table
Show the outlet electricity of a period；
Industry electricity consumption amount accounting R14ei:
Wherein, subscript e indicates e industry, and e has value 1,2,3 to respectively represent the primary ,secondary and tertiary industries；PusumeiIt is
I period e industry electricity consumption amount summation；PueiFor the i-th period e industry electricity consumption amount；
Industry electricity consumption economy return ratio R15ei:
Wherein, PGDPeiFor the i-th period e industry GDP accounting；PPueiFor the i-th period e industry electricity consumption amount accounting；
Industrial economy contribution rate R16 per capitaei:
Wherein, GDPeiFor the i-th period e industry GDP；PEOeiFor the i-th period e industry number of employees；
E industry industry restructuring ratio R17ei:
R17ei=Pei*PEOei
Wherein, PeiFor the i-th period e industry unit used electricity amount can output GDP value
New energy efficiency of investment R18i:
Wherein, PinvestiFor the investment amount of the i-th period new energy；PnniFor the newly-started appearance of the i-th period new energy
Amount；
Two-level index is normalized step 3: being normalized using minimax, expression formula are as follows:
Wherein,To normalize index, XiFor the i-th period original index value, XminFor index minimum value, XmaxFor index
Maximum value；
Step 4 determines first class index weight and two-level index weight according to regional power grid development plan, is united using variable weight
Meter method obtains each metrics evaluation value in the period of the region, the expression of the variable weight statistical method are as follows:
F (x)=K1(f1(x))X1+K2(f2(x))X2+K3(f3(x))X3+…+Kn(fn(x))Xn
Wherein, Ki(fiIt (x)) is two-level index XiRelevant weight calculation function；
Step 5 finds multiple targets fusion decision using the similarity to ideal solution method (TOPSIS) in multiple targets fusion decision
Optimal solution, specifically include the following steps:
(1) weighted normal decision matrix A is constructed:
In formula: there be M index x in each periodm(m index), a total of n period, vi(xim) it was the i-th period
xmThe normalized value of index, Wm are the weight of each index, wherein
(2) positive ideal solution, minus ideal result are calculated:
In formula:For the positive ideal solution that virtual each index is optimal,It is born for virtual each index is most bad
Ideal solution；
(3) parameter normalized value vj(xi) at a distance from optimal solution and most inferior solution:
In formula: S+(vi)、S-(vi) respectively indicate viAt a distance from optimal solution and most inferior solution；
(4) the overall merit C (v of zone time power grid is calculated as followsi):
In formula: C (vi) value it is bigger, show its index closer to positive ideal solution, power grid evaluation is better.
The two-level index relates generally to current electric grid construction level and future development it is expected:
The current electric grid construction level includes that fossil energy power generation transfer efficiency, thermoelectricity shut down carbon dioxide discharge-reduction
Amount, thermoelectricity are newly-built and shut down index, industry electricity consumption amount accounting, industry electricity consumption economy return ratio, industrial economy contribution rate, line per capita
Road loss late, auxiliary power consumption rate of power plant, generation of electricity by new energy amount accounting, periphery power grid are coupled horizontal, power generation coefficient of elasticity, electric power
Consumption elasticity coefficient, energy production elasticity, energy consumption elasticity and electricity sales amount coefficient of stabilization；
The future development expectation includes that new energy replaces traditional thermoelectricity CO2 emission benefit, Development of Electric Vehicles
CO2 emission benefit, electric car construction expectation, coal motor group be averaged net coal consumption rate expectation, industry restructuring ratio,
Generated energy speedup, generation of electricity by new energy amount speedup, extra-high voltage grid construction level and electric grid investment are horizontal.
The period is year, season, the moon or day.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
The present invention combines different angle thoroughly evaluating power grid constructions horizontal, fully considers traditional fossil energy and new energy
The investment of power grid and the relevant economic indicator of power grid, power grid extra-high voltage direct-current and tradition are handed in construction, the development of electric car
Connection between the construction level and regional power grid of galvanic electricity net is horizontal, pays close attention to speedup index, it is long-range to have regional development in mind
It plans reasonability, proposes the assessment indicator system of a kind of comprehensive assessment regional power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup.
Wherein variable weight statistical method can adapt to the difference of different zones Electric Power Network Planning emphasis, and approaching rationality solution method can be sufficiently sharp
With initial data and there is clearly geometric meaning, so that the application range of index system is wider and more intuitive.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the hierarchical chart of power grid construction level of the present invention and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system.
Fig. 2 is the first class index of power grid construction level of the present invention and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system embodiment
Time figure
, wherein first class index has passed through Topsis method and has been calculated by two-level index, and figure middle polyline is demonstrated by 4 level-ones and refers to
Mark fluctuates situation with annual data.
Fig. 3 is the time figure of power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system embodiment first class index
Histogram
It is identical as Fig. 2 data, relationship between annual index level and each index is showed using histogram.
Fig. 4 is that power grid construction level is determined with economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system embodiment using multiple targets fusion
The map of Complex evaluation that similarity to ideal solution method in plan obtains is as a result, draw out the horizontal superiority and inferiority of power network development in each year.
Specific embodiment
Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings, it should be understood that preferred reality described herein
Apply example only for the purpose of illustrating and explaining the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention.It also should be noted that for the ease of retouching
It states, only the parts related to the present invention are shown in attached drawing rather than entire infrastructure.
Power grid construction level of the present invention and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system as shown in Figure 1,
The present embodiment uses year for a period, power grid construction level of the present invention and economic structure and its speedup evaluation index
The construction method of system implementation example, comprising:
Step S1: certain regional evaluation index system first class index such as Fig. 1 is established, to commenting for the entire index system of determination
Valence direction, including energy environment, the electricity consumption industrial structure, power construction level and 4 first class index of Electricity Investment level；
Step S2: above-mentioned 4 first class index are related by country or somewhere electric power to 32 two-level index as shown in Figure 1
Department collects to obtain, and initial data needed for index described in the appraisement system is common data in power network development.
The present embodiment has collected the 2008-2015 annual data of State Statistics Bureau and the publication of power department federation, the data
It publishes on related web site, wherein data include initial data needed for the evaluation method, are related to electrical network economy development, electricity
Net construction, economic development index of correlation.According to the meaning and formula of index, each finger target value is calculated；
Part index number data are as shown in table 1 below:
Step S3: index is normalized using minimax method for normalizing；
Step S4: the weight of each index is determined；Index system of the present invention forms energy environment, the electricity consumption industrial structure, electricity
4 index classifications of power construction level and Electricity Investment level, and refine and be decomposed into 32 indexs, according to each power grid in each region
The planning and development target of company is different, and using subjective weighting method, the weight of each index can be different.Planning in the present embodiment
Index weights are identical.
Step S5: the achievement data after normalization is analyzed using Topsis method, obtains the construction of entire power grid
The horizontal comprehensive score in each period with economic structure and its speedup first class index evaluated and power grid entirety, it is following
Item comprehensive score is as shown in table 2 below.
Power grid overall merit is as shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3 on first class index.
The evaluation of destination layer power grid is as shown in Figure 4.
Table 2:
| Power grid is whole | Energy environment | Electricity Investment | The electricity consumption industrial structure | Power construction | |
| 2008 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.77 | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| 2009 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| 2010 | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| 2011 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.51 | 0.25 |
| 2012 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| 2013 | 0.69 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| 2014 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| 2015 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
Claims (3)
1. the construction method of a kind of power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system, which is characterized in that should
Method the following steps are included:
The destination layer and first class index of step 1, building power grid construction level and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system, institute
Stating destination layer is evaluation result, and the first class index relates generally to current electric grid construction level and future development it is expected, including energy
Four source environment, the electricity consumption industrial structure, power construction level and Electricity Investment level aspects；
Step 2, according to regional power grid to be evaluated record each period each index data, building power grid construction level with
The two-level index of economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system shares 32:
The energy environment index includes 7: fossil energy power generation transformation efficiency, new energy replace traditional thermoelectricity carbon dioxide
Discharge benefit, Development of Electric Vehicles CO2 emission benefit, electric car construction expectation, coal motor group are averaged the net coal consumption rate phase
It hopes, thermoelectricity shuts down carbon dioxide emission reduction amount, thermoelectricity is newly-built and shuts down index；
The electricity consumption industrial structure index includes 5: industry electricity consumption amount accounting, industry GDP accounting, industry electricity consumption economy return
Contribution rate, industry restructuring ratio per capita than, industrial economy；
The horizontal index of the power construction includes 12: total power generation speedup, new energy speedup, the development of newly-started new energy increase
Speed, generation of electricity by new energy amount accounting, generation of electricity by new energy increment accounting, extra-high voltage grid construction level, rate of electricity loss from transmission line, new energy hair
Electric level, power transformation capacity construction level, highest are coupled by electric power-generated energy relation with increase, auxiliary power consumption rate of power plant, periphery power grid
It is horizontal；
The horizontal index of the Electricity Investment includes 8: production of energy elasticity indexes, power generation elasticity indexes, energy-consuming
Elasticity indexes, new energy efficiency of investment, power grid construction investment accounting, electricity sales amount coefficient of stabilization, are used electricity consumption elasticity indexes per capita
Electricity speedup；
Wherein 14 indexs are common index in power grid appraisement system, and this will not be repeated here, other 18 indexs are by following various
It calculates:
Fossil energy power generation transformation efficiency R1i:
Wherein, subscript i indicates each variable in the value of the i-th period；FECijFor the i-th period power generation intermediate consumption j kind fossil
The energy, in total 5 kinds of fossil energies, including coal, petroleum, crude oil, diesel oil, fuel oil, PniFor the i-th period generation of electricity by new energy amount；
PsumiFor the i-th period total power generation；
New energy replaces traditional thermoelectricity CO2 emission benefit R2i:
Wherein, subscript t indicates t type new energy, totally 4 kinds of new energy types, i.e. T=4, including wind-powered electricity generation, water power, nuclear power, too
Sun can generate electricity；NCitIndicate the new energy installed capacity of the i-th period；ONLTitHourage can be utilized for the i-th period of new energy；CO2For
The discharge amount of thermoelectricity carbon dioxide when per kilowatt；
Development of Electric Vehicles CO2 emission benefit R3i:
R3i=Nvi*CO2
Wherein, NviFor the i-th period electric car quantity；
Electric car construction expectation R4i:
Wherein, NEFor the electric car quantitative value of expectation construction, nd is it is expected to reach to expect to spend the time；
Coal motor group be averaged net coal consumption rate expectation R5i:
Wherein, PiFor the i-th period power generation standard coal consumption index；PEGenerate electricity standard coal consumption index desired value；
Thermoelectricity shuts down carbon dioxide emission reduction amount R6i:
R6i=(Nfci-Nfni)*CO2
Wherein, NfciInstalled capacity is created for the i-th period thermoelectricity；NfniCapacity, CO are shut down for the i-th period thermoelectricity2For unit kilowatt
The discharge amount of Shi Huo electricity carbon dioxide；
Generation of electricity by new energy amount accounts for the accounting R7 of total power generationi:
Wherein, PniFor the i-th period generation of electricity by new energy amount；PsumiFor the i-th period total power generation
The new increment life insurance of new energy accounts for the accounting R8 of total power generation incrementi:
Wherein, Psumi-1 was the total power generation of a upper period, and Pni-1 was the generation of electricity by new energy amount of a upper period；
Extra-high voltage grid construction level R9i:
Wherein, wckFor the weight of kth kind high pressure level, weight is determined by voltage swing, there is K=7 kind high pressure level, including
1000,750,500,330,220,110,35 kilovolts；PhikFor the construction capacity of the i-th period kth high pressure level；
The horizontal R10 of generation of electricity by new energyi:
Wherein, wtAccounting weight it is expected for the t type energy；PnctiCapacity is increased newly for t type the i-th period of the energy；PnhtiFor
T type the i-th period of the energy can utilize hourage, and T is new energy type sum, T=4；
Power transformation capacity construction level R11i:
Wherein, PckiFor the i-th period kth grade transformer equipment capacity；
Highest is by electric power-generated energy relation with increase R12i:
PiniFor the i-th period power grid import electricity, PsumdiFor the i-th period total power generation increment；
Periphery power grid is coupled horizontal R13i:
Wherein, Pini-1Indicated the import electricity of a upper period；PoutiElectricity, Pout are exported for the i-th period power gridi-1Indicate upper one
The outlet electricity of period；
Industry electricity consumption amount accounting R14ei:
Wherein, subscript e indicates e industry, and e has value 1,2,3 to respectively represent the primary ,secondary and tertiary industries；PusumeiWhen being i-th
Section e industry electricity consumption amount summation；PueiFor the i-th period e industry electricity consumption amount；
Industry electricity consumption economy return ratio R15ei:
Wherein, PGDPeiFor the i-th period e industry GDP accounting；PPueiFor the i-th period e industry electricity consumption amount accounting；
Industrial economy contribution rate R16 per capitaei:
Wherein, GDPeiFor the i-th period e industry GDP；PEOeiFor the i-th period e industry number of employees；
E industry industry restructuring ratio R17ei:
R17ei=Pei*PEOei
Wherein, PeiFor the i-th period e industry unit used electricity amount can output GDP value
New energy efficiency of investment R18i:
Wherein, PinvestiFor the investment amount of the i-th period new energy；PnniFor the newly-started capacity of the i-th period new energy；
Two-level index is normalized step 3: being normalized using minimax, expression formula are as follows:
Wherein,To normalize index, XiFor the i-th period original index value, XminFor index minimum value, XmaxFor index maximum
Value；
Step 4 determines first class index weight and two-level index weight according to regional power grid development plan, using variable weight statistics side
Method obtains each metrics evaluation value in the period of the region, the expression of the variable weight statistical method are as follows:
F (x)=K1(f1(x))X1+K2(f2(x))X2+K3(f3(x))X3+…+Kn(fn(x))Xn
Wherein, Ki(fiIt (x)) is two-level index XiRelevant weight calculation function；
Step 5 finds multiple targets fusion decision most using the similarity to ideal solution method (TOPSIS) in multiple targets fusion decision
Excellent solution, specifically includes the following steps:
(1) weighted normal decision matrix A is constructed:
In formula: there be M index x in each periodm(m index), a total of n period, vi(xim) it is the i-th period xmRefer to
Target normalized value, Wm are the weight of each index, wherein
(2) positive ideal solution, minus ideal result are calculated:
In formula:For the positive ideal solution that virtual each index is optimal,For the most bad negative ideal of virtual each index
Solution；
(3) parameter normalized value vj(xi) at a distance from optimal solution and most inferior solution:
In formula: S+(vi)、S-(vi) respectively indicate viAt a distance from optimal solution and most inferior solution；
(4) the overall merit C (v of zone time power grid is calculated as followsi):
In formula: C (vi) value it is bigger, show its index closer to positive ideal solution, power grid evaluation is better.
2. the building side of power grid construction level as described in claim 1 and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system
Method, which is characterized in that the two-level index relates generally to current electric grid construction level and future development it is expected:
The current electric grid construction level includes that fossil energy power generation transfer efficiency, thermoelectricity shut down carbon dioxide emission reduction amount, fire
Electricity is newly-built, and contribution rate, route damage per capita with index, industry electricity consumption amount accounting, industry electricity consumption economy return ratio, industrial economy is shut down
Mistake rate, auxiliary power consumption rate of power plant, generation of electricity by new energy amount accounting, periphery power grid are coupled horizontal, power generation coefficient of elasticity, electricity consumption
Coefficient of elasticity, energy production elasticity, energy consumption elasticity and electricity sales amount coefficient of stabilization；
The future development expectation includes that new energy replaces traditional thermoelectricity CO2 emission benefit, Development of Electric Vehicles dioxy
Change carbon emission benefit, electric car construction it is expected, coal motor group is averaged net coal consumption rate expectation, industry restructuring ratio, power generation
It is horizontal to measure speedup, generation of electricity by new energy amount speedup, extra-high voltage grid construction level and electric grid investment.
3. the building side of power grid construction level as described in claim 1 and economic structure and its speedup assessment indicator system
Method, which is characterized in that the period is year, season, the moon or day.
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