CN109190937A - A kind of investment value assessment system - Google Patents
A kind of investment value assessment system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of investment value assessment system, including data acquisition module, data preprocessing module, data analysis module, data outputting module；Data collecting module collected is used for the primary data of investment value assessment, and primary data includes at least investment target historical statistical data；Data preprocessing module is pre-processed the primary data to obtain analysis data, so that the analysis data meet the data demand of the data analysis module；Data analysis module receives the analysis data and is conducted into investment value analysis model and analyzed, and obtains assessed value, assessed value is exported by the data outputting module；The investment value analysis model includes investment option appraisal Model, and the investment option appraisal Model is the model of the expected premium value obtained when calculating project is performed integrally.The present invention using building mathematical model and quantization visualization output etc. means, for investor it is more accurate provide an investment rules design pattern.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Artificial smart fields, systems a kind of intelligence based on investment tactics
Investment value assessment system.
Background technique
As investment field is to the persistently overheating of the attention rate of artificial intelligence application, by the powerful back-end data of computer and
The decision rationality of operational capability and machine system, to assist even the investment consultant's service theory for being accomplished manually complexity being replaced to make
Intelligence, which throws to care for, is increasingly becoming very powerful and exceedingly arrogant topic, such as securities trading market, increasingly tends to replace using artificial intelligence
Generation.
But for innovative technology investment project, investment way makes a big difference with securities trading market；One side
Face, innovative technology investment project do not have mandatory information disclosure requirement as primary market, and also none reasonable method is also
The investment value of the former project, to help investment company to establish an effective investment rules；On the other hand, innovative technology
The fluctuation of the risk income of investment project is too big, in order to reduce the uncertain bring risk of investment project, assesses such
Project often will cause seriously underestimating for Project Value.
Therefore, the investment value of the investment project how is reasonably restored, helps investment company's establishment one effective
Investment rules, be innovative technology investment project running engineering in required critical issue to be processed.
Summary of the invention
Of the existing technology in order to solve the problems, such as, the present invention provides a kind of investment value assessment system.
The present invention takes following scheme: a kind of investment value assessment system, including data acquisition module, data prediction mould
Block, data analysis module, data outputting module；
The data collecting module collected is used for the primary data of investment value assessment, and the primary data, which includes at least, throws
Provide target historical statistical data；
The data preprocessing module is pre-processed the primary data to obtain analysis data, so that the analysis number
According to the data demand for meeting the data analysis module；
The data analysis module, which receives the analysis data and is conducted into investment value analysis model, to be divided
Analysis, obtains assessed value, the assessed value is exported by the data outputting module.
In some embodiments, the investment target historical statistical data includes multiple history data set P1、P2...,
Pn, Pi=(Ki0, Vi0, αi, σi), wherein Ki0For the total investment of investment project corresponding to i-th of history data set, Vi0It is
The angel of investment project corresponding to i history data set takes turns valuation, αiFor investment project corresponding to i-th of history data set
Earning rate, σiFor the value stability bandwidth of investment project corresponding to i-th of history data set, 1≤i≤n；Each data group is equal
It is lacked with aforementioned four parameter values or the parameter value of wherein one or more parameters, when parameter value missing, value is
NULL。
In some embodiments, the data preprocessing module pre-processes the multiple history data set, calculates
Out for importing to the investment data group (K in investment value analysis model0, V0, α, σ), wherein K0To invest target intended investment
Total value, V0Valuation is taken turns for expected angel, α is expected yield, and σ is expectancy stability bandwidth.
In some embodiments, when existing has parameter value missing in one or more history data sets, the number
Data preprocess module will pass through parameter value described in cubic spline interpolation statistic algorithm completion.
In some embodiments, the investment value analysis model includes investment spending threshold model and investment options worth
Assessment models, the investment spending threshold model are the model for calculating the investment spending amount of each investment stage, the investment
Options worth assessment models are the model of the expected premium value obtained when calculating project is performed integrally.
In some embodiments, the investment spending threshold model are as follows:
N (j)=n (j-1)+n (j-2), n (1)=0, n (2)=1
Wherein, n (j) indicates the parameter in jth stage, which is calculated by aforementioned formula, wherein j=1,
2 ... ..., J, J ∈ N,Indicate the investment spending volume in jth stage, KjIt indicates remaining after the investment spending in jth stage
It invests amount and works as K it is possible thereby to calculate the investment spending volume that each investment stage should be investedjIt can stop when≤0
Investment.
In some embodiments, the investment option appraisal Model are as follows:
DV=α Vdt+ σ Vdz
E[dz2]=dt；
Wherein, α is expected yield, and V is investment target market value, and σ is expectancy stability bandwidth, and dz is to obey mean value
It is for 0, standard deviationStandard wiener movement, E [dz2] it is the variance for the unit time going up wiener kinematic variables；V0It is the first of V
Initial value.
If V* is the expected valuation of investment target, the investment option that enterprise possesses as V >=V*, f (V, K) are indicated with F (V, K)
It indicates the investment option that enterprise possesses as V < V*, then has:
Wherein, F=F (V, K), f=f (V, K), FvvIndicate secondary partial differential derivation of the F to V, FvIndicate F to the primary of V
Partial differential derivation, FkIndicate a partial differential derivation of the F to K, fvvIndicate secondary partial differential derivation of the f to V, fvIndicate f to V's
Partial differential derivation,Indicate interim maximum investment spending；
When calculating above-mentioned formula, definition μ is discount rate of the future profits through Risk Adjusted, i.e. μ=γ+φ σ, γ are calm
Dangerous interest rate, φ are the market price of risk；And enable δ=μ-α and δ > 0；It concurrently sets with downstream condition:
F (V, 0)=V
limV→∞FV(V, K)=e-Jδ
F (0, K)=0
F (V*, K)=F (V*, K)
fV(V*, K)=FV(V*,K)
By calculating above, it can solve and obtain F, f, to obtain the assessed value of investment options worth.
In some embodiments, the data outputting module comments the investment spending threshold model and investment options worth
It shows with estimating model result visualization calculated.
In some embodiments, the investment value assessment system further includes memory module, and the memory module receives simultaneously
Storing data acquisition module, data preprocessing module, data analysis module, data involved in data outputting module and as a result,
The memory module is also stored with User Information Database, including user account and password.
By using preceding solution, the invention has the benefit that utilizing the visual of building mathematical model and quantization
Change output etc. means, for investor it is more accurate provide an investment rules design pattern.Algoritic module therein, in detail
Annotation in carrying out the exploratory strategy for investing and being gradually increased investment amount in advance using a small amount of fund, work as project
When being worth uncertain, how quickly accurately Project Value to be assessed.
On the other hand, we also noted that the variation in market, the update of technology and the transition of competitiveness will all give risk
The market price bring variation, and this variation will also bring fluctuation to investment project prospective earnings.Therefore by the market of risk
Price change brings the variation of project discount rate in view of being directed in the sequential investment decision for segmenting investment field in industry, will more
It is beneficial to enterprise and effectively utilizes historical data information, under reasonable risk conditions, judges project optimal threshold, determine optimal
Investment determination.And by the analogue data based on real-time trade information, investment company is helped more effectively to quantify the city such as risk
The influence that field price change brings the variation of project discount rate to be worth project investment threshold value and investment opportunity, and then help to invest
Enterprise quickly and accurately holds investment opportunity during physical planning innovative technology investment project.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the structural schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is that investment value assessment system of the invention is used to evaluate the investment target come as the assessed value of vertical market
Schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is that investment value assessment system of the invention is used to evaluate the investment target come as internet automobile services
Assessed value schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is that investment value assessment system of the invention is used to evaluate the investment target come as the assessment of internet medical treatment
It is worth schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 be different risks market price φ under vertical market expection valuation variation；
Fig. 6 be different risks market price φ under internet automobile services expection valuation variation；
Fig. 7 be different risks market price φ under internet medical treatment expection valuation variation；
Investment threshold value V* is shown to the sensibility of the market price φ of risk free rate γ and risk in Fig. 8.
In figure, the corresponding module title of each appended drawing reference are as follows:
1, data acquisition module；2, data preprocessing module；3, data analysis module；4, data outputting module；5, it stores
Module.
Specific embodiment
Now in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, the present invention is further described.
As shown in FIG. 1, FIG. 1 is the investment value assessment system of one embodiment of the invention, including data acquisition module 1,
Data preprocessing module 2, data analysis module 3, data outputting module 4 and memory module 5.
Wherein, primary data of the acquisition of data acquisition module 1 for investment value assessment, which, which includes at least, throws
Target historical statistical data is provided, then the primary data is inputed to by data preprocessing module 2 by Data Input Interface.
These usual historical statistical datas can be found on industry statistic website, such as the sector similar projects
Total investment K', market value V', the earning rate α ' of each project are worth stability bandwidth σ '；It is to be noted, however, that due to
The present invention is concerned with innovative technology class investment project, and often the statistical data of the corresponding segmented industry is fewer, or even is had
What a little data were missing from, such as earning rate in some existing projects or value stability bandwidth are without disclosed or do not unite
Meter, the data of interior not respective item disclose for some time in other words.At this point, if coming only with conventional statistical means
Registration evidence is constructed, certainly will cannot provide strong support since sample size is rare for subsequent model.
Therefore, it is necessary to these primary datas are inputed to the expansion of 2 type sample of data preprocessing module and Supplementing Data.It is logical
It crosses pretreatment in this way and obtains analysis data, so that analysis data can satisfy the data demand of the data analysis module 3.
The working principle of the data preprocessing module of the present embodiment is described below in detail.
Assuming that the collected primary data of data acquisition module 1 namely investment target historical statistical data include multiple history
Data group P1、P2..., Pn, Pi=(Ki0, Vi0, αi, σi), wherein Ki0For the corresponding investment project of i-th of history data set
Total investment, Vi0Valuation, α are taken turns for the angel of the corresponding investment project of i-th of history data setiFor i-th of history data set pair
The earning rate for the investment project answered, σiFor the value stability bandwidth of the corresponding investment project of i-th of history data set, 1≤i≤n；Often
A data group all has aforementioned four parameter values or the parameter value missing of wherein one or two or three parameters, works as parameter
When value missing, value NULL.
When existing has parameter value missing in one or more history data sets, it is assumed that multiple history data set
Each parameter value Normal Distribution in four parameter values calculates history using the statistic algorithm of cubic spline interpolation
Having parameter value in data group is the parameter value that the parameter of NULL should have, thus by the parameter value completion of the missing.
Specifically:
If time interval [ta, tb] on data be it is incomplete, in order to obtain complete data-link, now by time interval [ta,
tb] it is divided into N number of minizone, each timing node is x after segmentationn(n=0 ... N), i.e.,
ta=x0<x1<…<xN-1<xN=tb,
After cubic spline interpolation, the interpolating function S (x) on each subinterval can be obtained,
Wherein, mkThe first derivative values of each node, k=1 ... N, hk=xk-xk-1.S (x) can represent Ki0, Vi0, αi, σiIn appoint
One function.
By above-mentioned pretreatment, it can be quickly obtained the numerical value of important parameter, thus for input number needed for following model
According to offer preparation.
After Supplementing Data, each parameter is averaged to get investment data group P is arrived0=(K0, V0, α, σ), K0For investment
Target intended investment total value, V0Valuation is taken turns for expected angel, α is expected yield, and σ is expectancy stability bandwidth.
WhereinIt can certainly adopt
P is calculated with other calculations in addition to average value0Parameters value, such as square average again evolution, weighting
It is average etc., herein with no restriction.
Using the method for cubic spline statistics come completion data, the smooth of convergence, stability and interpolation the advantage is that
Property is preferable.In existing similar statistical data, what is generallyd use is subsection linearity inser value method, though these method data acquireds have
Continuity, but slickness is poor.
Further, each parameter value of investment data group will be fed to data analysis module 3, and data analysis module is default
There is investment value analysis model, is analyzed by the way that each parameter value to be input in investment value analysis model, this can be obtained
Target assessed value is invested, which is exported by data outputting module 4.
Investment value analysis model includes investment spending threshold model and investment option appraisal Model, investment spending threshold
Being worth model is the model for calculating the investment spending amount of each investment stage, and investment option appraisal Model is that calculating project is whole
The model of the expected premium value obtained when body is completed.
In investment spending threshold model, it is considered that company will not obtain project yield before project completion, in order to
It controls risk, investment behavior can carry out stage by stage, so that when the expected cost that project overall value declines or complete investment rises
When, company in the process some stage can choose it is temporary or it is permanent stopping continue to invest.
Investment stage is indicated with j, wherein j=1,2 ... ..., J, J ∈ N,Indicate the investment spending volume in jth stage, Kj
Indicate the remaining investment amount after the investment spending in jth stage.Can the current generation smoothly invest dependent on previous investment
Whether the stage, which reaches investment, is expected, and is such as not less than its options worth, company by investment bring cash flow net present value (NPV) when the jth stage
It can select immediately with amountInvestment, on the contrary then selection continue to hold option.It is directed to what industry segmented market for most of
Non- subversiveness Innovation Projects, since the target of technological innovation is relatively unambiguous specific, corresponding research and development cost is also more controllable.
In addition, the unstability of the corresponding market situation of such innovation item and policy environment is much smaller than subversiveness innovation item, with
Subversiveness innovation skill project has been compared in further exploitation, and the market environment uncertainty that company is faced will also decline stepwise,
In order to expand occupation rate of market, company is generally more likely to increase investment amount stepwise.ThereforeOne should numerically be met
It is a to increase and incremental ordered series of numbers with investment stage, and the summation of this ordered series of numbers is then equal to the project investment of initial time phase sets
Total value K0.Furthermore when market environment uncertainty decline, for the ease of statistical item revenue and expenditure ratio preferably to assess and predict
The following similar item, company are usually more likely to fixed investment amount ratio increased stepwise.Therefore, as project carries out the stage
Be incremented by, each adjacent stage number ratios will level off to a reasonable constant in ordered series of numbers.
Investment spending threshold model based on above-mentioned condition, in the present embodiment are as follows:
N (j)=n (j-1)+n (j-2), n (1)=0, n (2)=1
Wherein, n (j) indicates the parameter in jth stage, which is calculated by aforementioned formula, wherein j=1,
2 ... ..., J, J ∈ N,Indicate the investment spending volume in jth stage, KjIt indicates remaining after the investment spending in jth stage
It invests amount and works as K it is possible thereby to calculate the investment spending volume that each investment stage should be investedjIt can stop when≤0
Investment.
In investment option appraisal Model, since the difficulty and complexity and technology of technological project itself carry
The finiteness of company's self-ability, it will usually the effect played after causing technological investment to be introduced does not get a desired effect,
So that project future generates cash flow and there is uncertainty.It is therefore contemplated that investment target market value V is a wave function,
Meet:
DV=α Vdt+ σ Vdz
E[dz2]=dt；
Wherein, α is expected yield, and V is investment target market value, and σ is expectancy stability bandwidth, and dz is to obey mean value
It is for 0, standard deviationStandard wiener movement, E [dz2] it is the variance for the unit time going up wiener kinematic variables；
At this time, it is assumed that V* is the expected valuation of investment target, namely investment threshold value, indicates the enterprise as V >=V* with F (V, K)
The investment option possessed, f (V, K) indicate the investment option that enterprise possesses as V < V*, and as V >=V*, enterprise can select to add
Investment, as V < V*, enterprise's selection is continued waiting for.Correspondingly, then have:
Wherein, F=F (V, K), f=f (V, K), FvvIndicate secondary partial differential derivation of the F to V, FvIndicate F to the primary of V
Partial differential derivation, FkIndicate a partial differential derivation of the F to K, fvvIndicate secondary partial differential derivation of the f to V, fvIndicate f to V's
Partial differential derivation,Indicate interim maximum investment spending.
When computationally stating formula, definition μ is discount rate of the future profits through Risk Adjusted, i.e. μ=γ+φ σ, γ are nothing
Risk-free rate such as national debt interest rate, φ are the market price of risk；And enable δ=μ-α and δ > 0；Concurrently set following perimeter strip
Part:
F (V, 0)=V
limV→∞FV(V, K)=e-Jδ
F (0, K)=0
F (V*, K)=F (V*, K)
fV(V*, K)=FV(V*,K)
By calculating above, it can solve and obtain F, f, to obtain the assessed value of investment options worth.
Algoritic module design Real Option Approach in the present invention establishes sublevel under the uncertain background of Project Value
The option Model of Duan Jinhang investment decision.During project investment, the investment spending decision of investment company in each stage can be with
Further new information importing and adjust.
If the expected cost of the decline of whole item purpose values or completion investment rises, investment company is with temporarily or forever
The ability of long disinvestment.
Significantly, since technological project itself difficulty and complexity and project side's self-ability it is limited
Property, it will usually the effect for causing technology transfer to be played does not reach enterprise's expected effect, so that project future generates cash
Stream exists uncertain.It floats at random since it is changed over time, we use the model of Geometry Brownian movement mode
More accurately to summarize a purpose value, while enterprise will be helpful to very using multi-period investment under many uncertain factors
Project development risk is reduced well.We further set interim project by the way of fixed investment ratio in model
Maximum expenditure threshold value ordered series of numbers.Design is further developed mainly due to project in this way, and the market environment faced is uncertain
Also will decline stepwise, in order to expand occupation rate of market, while in order to which the cash flow of statistical item is preferably to assess the following class
As investment project, company generally will be more towards increasing the investment amount of fixed proportion stepwise in the follow-up phase of investment.This
Sample design can also help the invention module to obtain the emulation data result for more meeting the market behavior.
After assessed value above-mentioned is all calculated, assessed value will be input to data outputting module 4, and pass through visualization
Mode show.
In addition, investment value assessment system of the invention further includes memory module 5, to receive and store data acquisition module
Block 1, data preprocessing module 2, data analysis module 3, data involved in data outputting module 4 and as a result, also, preferably
Ground, memory module 5 are also stored with User Information Database, including user account and password.In this case, the user information data
Library can realize that user logs in and using authorization by interactive module.
Meanwhile the investment value assessment system can also be connected with cloud server module, to be data preprocessing module 2
More efficient computational service is provided with data analysis module 3, concurrent operation can be especially carried out, greatly shorten operation time.
In the following, by for specific case come the technical solution that the present invention is furture elucidated.
For three subdivision fields of internet industry (vertical market platform, internet automobile services and internet medical treatment),
By data acquisition module, system obtains nearly 5 years in China's field trade investment historical data from industry statistic website automatically,
And import data preprocessing module.Further, data preprocessing module will carry out statistics completion to all missing datas, pass through
It crosses after Supplementing Data and mean value calculation, generates the analysis data (as shown in table 1) calculated for model emulation.
1 internet segmented industry innovative technology project investment of table is worth evolution parameter
Above-mentioned analysis data are exported to the investment value analysis model in data analysis module 3, while needing to preset calm
Dangerous interest rate γ, is worth stability bandwidth σ and Project Value returns insufficient rate δ.And it is wherein worth the insufficient rate δ of return, and and future profits
Discount rate μ and Project Value expected rate α through Risk Adjusted are directly related.For ordinary investor, national debt interest rate is logical
Often become devoid of risk rate of returns reference standard because national debt interest rate be not only it is minimum in similar financial product on financial market
, and the features such as national debt has been also equipped with phase property, safety, rentability and mobility.Therefore, system will use nearly 3 term state
Interest on loans rate defines risk free rate γ.Although general investment company's expectation project yield rate can be suitable with listed company, also can
Understand that corresponding Value Risk ought to be larger compared with than listed company data.Therefore, system averagely fluctuates accordingly in each field
Increase by 5% in rate.The definition of the module relevant parameter be originated from before scientific documents and industry report summary and induction, system user
It can also be by interactive module, according to itself industry experience, or according to itself project analysis needs, the self-defining parameter model
It encloses.
In the embodiment, system default investment expenditure is all quarterly to make, if any j-1 stage, which invests, all reaches expected,
Then project investment will divide in two years 8 stages to complete.It therefore, is K for a gross investment0Project, it can be in the stage
Property increase be no more thanUnder conditions of paid wages (referring to table 2).
Respectively maximum amount is paid in subdivision field stage project investment to table 2
Further, the data analysis module in processor will receive from data preprocessing module and interactive module
Parameter, and all system emulation operation is carried out in investment value analysis model contained by import modul.By cloud server module
Efficient computational service, it is corresponding at the V and K of specified level that processor will construct three subdivision fields of internet industry
Invest options worth related data.As shown in Figures 2 to 4, respectively vertical market, internet automobile services, internet medical treatment
Three are segmented the assessed value schematic diagram in field, are worth numerical value with the investment opportunity that thick point marks out emphatically in figure and are corresponded to selection horse
Upper investment or the critical point continued waiting for, and form visualization output.Primary data and the complete data of resume module will save extremely
Memory module, accordingly result will also be output to display terminal displaying by output module.
Further, it is provided in the present invention also by introducing the market price φ of parameter risk for the assessed value of the model
The reference of more dimensions, thus the judgement under applicable a variety of situations.Such as shown in Fig. 5 to Fig. 7, the result of three width figures
The investment threshold value of three subdivision field investment projects when φ is 0.92,1.0,1.15 and 1.31 4 kind of situation is elaborated respectively
Situation of change.No matter the investment threshold value of project respective stage is all with risk as can be seen which subdivision field is project be
The increase of market price φ and rise.In the case where Project Value predicted growth rate α is constant, the increase of market prices of risk φ
Directly result in the increase of discount rate μ.And this variation reduces the present worth of return by the project construction time.Such increase
It will be so that investment threshold value V*To interim maximum investment spendingBecome quite sensitive.At this point, unfavorable reduction is interim
Investment spending increases the behavior of investment stage, and completely positive investment meaning is not necessarily brought to company.The lower stage
Property investment spending will lead to higher Staging elimination threshold value, and will also decrease in this way to the excitation of the company of enterprise, hinder investment.
Investment threshold value V* is shown to the sensibility of the market price φ of risk free rate γ and risk in Fig. 8.In Fig. 8,
What three curved surfaces from top to bottom respectively indicated is internet medical treatment, vertical market and internet automobile services, it is possible thereby to see
Out, the investment threshold value of internet medical treatment is most sensitive to the market price of risk free rate and risk.So being somebody's turn to do in investment
When field, investor is needed to pay special attention to the variation of the two market factors.
Using investment value analysis and assessment system of the invention, the benefit having is, utilizes building mathematical model and amount
Change visualization output etc. means, for investor it is more accurate provide an investment rules design pattern.Algorithm therein
Module, in carrying out the exploratory strategy for investing and being gradually increased investment amount in advance using a small amount of fund, when project valence
When being worth uncertain, quickly and accurately Project Value is assessed, and then investor is helped to innovate skill in physical planning
During art investment project, investment decision quickly and is accurately made.
Although specifically showing and describing the present invention in conjunction with preferred embodiment, the technical solution method and way are implemented
There are many diameter, and the above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but those skilled in the art should be understood that and not depart from
In the spirit and scope of the present invention defined by the appended claims, the present invention can be made in the form and details respectively
Kind variation, is protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of investment value assessment system, which is characterized in that including data acquisition module, data preprocessing module, data point
Analyse module, data outputting module；
The data collecting module collected is used for the primary data of investment value assessment, and the primary data includes at least investment mark
Historical statistical data；
The data preprocessing module is pre-processed the primary data to obtain analysis data, so that the analysis data are full
The data demand of the foot data analysis module；
The data analysis module receives the analysis data and is conducted into investment value analysis model and analyzed, and obtains
To assessed value, the assessed value is exported by the data outputting module；
The investment value analysis model includes investment option appraisal Model, and the investment option appraisal Model is meter
The model of the expected premium value obtained when calculation project is performed integrally.
2. investment value assessment system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the investment target historical statistical data
Including multiple history data set P1、P2..., Pn, Pi=(Ki0, Vi0, αi, σi), wherein Ki0For i-th history data set is right
The total investment for the investment project answered, Vi0Valuation, α are taken turns for the angel of investment project corresponding to i-th of history data setiIt is
The earning rate of investment project corresponding to i history data set, σiFor the valence of investment project corresponding to i-th of history data set
It is worth stability bandwidth, 1≤i≤n；Each data group all has aforementioned four parameter values or the parameter of wherein one or more parameters
Value missing, when parameter value missing, value NULL.
3. investment value assessment system according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the data preprocessing module is to described
Multiple history data sets are pre-processed, and are calculated for importing to the investment data group (K in investment value analysis model0, V0,
α, σ), wherein K0To invest target intended investment total value, V0Valuation is taken turns for expected angel, α is expected yield, and σ is expectancy
Stability bandwidth.
4. investment value assessment system according to claim 3, which is characterized in that when in the presence of one or more history
When having parameter value missing in data group, the data preprocessing module will be by joining described in cubic spline interpolation statistic algorithm completion
Numerical value.
5. according to the described in any item investment value assessment systems of claim 3 or 4, which is characterized in that the investment value point
Analysis model further includes investment spending threshold model and investment option appraisal Model, and the investment spending threshold model is to calculate
The model of the investment spending amount of each investment stage.
6. investment value assessment system according to claim 5, which is characterized in that the investment spending threshold model are as follows:
N (j)=n (j-1)+n (j-2), n (1)=0, n (2)=1
Wherein, n (j) indicates the parameter in jth stage, which is calculated by aforementioned formula, wherein j=1,2 ... ..., J, J
∈ N,Indicate the investment spending volume in jth stage, KjIndicate the remaining investment amount after the investment spending in jth stage,
It is possible thereby to calculate the investment spending volume that each investment stage should be invested, work as KjIt can disinvestment when≤0.
7. investment value assessment system according to claim 5, which is characterized in that the investment option appraisal Model
Are as follows:
DV=α Vdt+ σ Vdz
E[dz2]=dt；
Wherein, α is expected yield, and V is investment target market value, and σ is expectancy stability bandwidth, dz be obey mean value be 0,
Standard deviation isStandard wiener movement, E [dz2] it is the variance for the unit time going up wiener kinematic variables；
If V* is the expected valuation of investment target, the investment option that enterprise possesses as V >=V* is indicated with F (V, K), f (V, K) is indicated
The investment option that enterprise possesses as V < V*, then have:
Wherein, F=F (V, K), f=f (V, K), FvvIndicate secondary partial differential derivation of the F to V, FvIndicate F to the primary partially micro- of V
Divide derivation, FkIndicate a partial differential derivation of the F to K, fvvIndicate secondary partial differential derivation of the f to V, fvIndicate f to the primary of V
Partial differential derivation,Indicate interim maximum investment spending.
8. investment value assessment system according to claim 7, which is characterized in that when calculating above-mentioned formula, defining μ is not
Come discount rate of the income through Risk Adjusted, i.e. μ=γ+φ σ, γ is risk free rate, and φ is the market price of risk；And enable δ
=μ-α and δ > 0；It concurrently sets with downstream condition:
F (V, 0)=V
limV→∞FV(V, K)=e-Jδ
F (0, K)=0
F (V*, K)=F (V*, K)
fV(V*, K)=FV(V*,K)
By calculating above, it can solve and obtain F, f, to obtain the assessed value of investment options worth.
9. according to the described in any item investment value assessment systems of claim 6 to 8, which is characterized in that the data export mould
Block shows the investment spending threshold model and investment option appraisal Model result visualization calculated.
10. investment value assessment system according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the investment value assessment system is also
Including memory module, the memory module receive and store data acquisition module, data preprocessing module, data analysis module,
Data involved in data outputting module and as a result, the memory module is also stored with User Information Database, including user's account
Number and password.
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| CN109858830A (en) * | 2019-02-25 | 2019-06-07 | 政和科技股份有限公司 | A kind of method and system assessed automatically for technical need prospective earnings |
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| CN110009504A (en) * | 2019-04-08 | 2019-07-12 | 湖北风口网络科技有限公司 | A kind of highly-safe inauguration investment system and method |
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| CN111507838A (en) * | 2020-04-10 | 2020-08-07 | 浙江万里学院 | Value evaluation system and method capable of converting bonds |
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