CN109146249A - A kind of distribution network reliability predictor method, device and equipment - Google Patents
A kind of distribution network reliability predictor method, device and equipment Download PDFInfo
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- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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Abstract
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of distribution network reliability predictor method, device and equipment, pass through the blind number of the first power failure duration of the blind number and region of first outage rate in region, and between bond area the line failure rate of route blind number, obtain the blind number of the blind number of second outage rate in region and the second power failure duration in region, the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user is obtained according to the blind number of the blind number of second outage rate of each region and the second power failure duration in region, the blind number of first user averagely power failure duration and the blind number of the first power supply reliability, and further to the blind number difference handling averagely of above three parameter, the precompensation parameter of reliability prediction is carried out to obtain as power distribution network.This method, device and equipment, by distribution network reliability estimate in various precompensation parameters indicate and carry out operation by blind number, to reach estimating with practical situation as close possible to improving the accuracy that distribution network reliability is estimated to distribution network reliability.
Description
Technical field
The present embodiments relate to distribution network technology field, more particularly, to a kind of distribution network reliability predictor method,
Device and equipment.
Background technique
Distribution network reliability refers to the ability of distribution system continued power, is the important finger for examining distribution network electric energy quality
Mark, reflects power industry to the satisfaction degree of national economy electrical energy demands, estimating for distribution network reliability changes power distribution network
Make and be of great significance, especially distributed generation resource (DG) access power distribution network can constantly for user provide it is safe, high-quality, can
The electric energy leaned on seems especially to estimating for distribution network reliability in the case where considering the access power distribution network of distributed generation resource
It is important.
Currently, distribution network reliability estimate in various precompensation parameters (such as interregional line failure rate, repair rate etc.
Parameter) point value selected, that is, a specific value, however, the route actually used in these precompensation parameters and power distribution network
Related to element, the difference of the manufacturer or even production batch of route and element may cause route and the corresponding ginseng of element
Number is different, completely the same route and element can not be selected in power distribution network, therefore result in reliable to power distribution network at present
Property estimate with practical situation that there are relatively large deviations, be unable to get accurate estimation results.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome the above problem or at least be partially solved the above problem, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of power distribution network
Reliability prediction method, apparatus and equipment.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of distribution network reliability predictor method, comprising: according in each region of power distribution network
The dependability parameter of each element, obtain first outage rate in each region blind number and each region first have a power failure when
Long blind number, when dependability parameter includes element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate reparation duration and average scheduled overhaul
It is long；According to the blind number of the line failure rate of interregional route, the blind number of first outage rate in each region and each region
The blind number of first power failure duration obtains the blind number of second outage rate in each region and the second power failure duration in each region
Blind number；According to the blind number of second outage rate in each region and the blind number of the second power failure duration in each region, the is obtained
The blind number of the blind number of one average frequency of power cut of user and the first user averagely power failure duration, averagely has a power failure according to the first user
The blind number of number obtains the blind number of the first power supply reliability；Determine that first uses according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Family is averaged the mean value of frequency of power cut, determines the first users averagely power failure duration according to the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration
Mean value determines the mean value of the first power supply reliability according to the blind number of the first power supply reliability, by the first average frequency of power cut of user
Mean value, the first user averagely mean value of power failure duration and the mean value of the first power supply reliability as precompensation parameter to power distribution network into
Row reliability prediction.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of distribution network reliability estimating device, comprising: first obtains module, matches for basis
The dependability parameter of each element in each region of power grid obtains the blind number of first outage rate in each region and each
The blind number of the first power failure duration in region, dependability parameter include element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate reparation duration
With average scheduled overhaul duration；Second obtains module, for the blind number according to the line failure rate of interregional route, each region
The first outage rate blind number and each region the first power failure duration blind number, obtain second outage rate in each region
The blind number of the second power failure duration in blind number and each region；Third obtains module, for having a power failure according to the second of each region
The blind number of second power failure duration of the blind number and each region of rate obtains the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user, and
The blind number of first user averagely power failure duration obtains the first power supply reliability according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Blind number；Module is estimated, for determining the first average frequency of power cut of user according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Mean value determines the mean value of the first user averagely power failure duration according to the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, supplies according to first
The blind number of electric reliability determines the mean value of the first power supply reliability, by the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, the first user
Averagely the mean value of power failure duration and the mean value of the first power supply reliability carry out reliability prediction to power distribution network as precompensation parameter.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of distribution network reliability and estimates equipment, comprising: at least one processor, at least one
Memory and data/address bus；Wherein: processor and memory complete mutual communication by data/address bus；Memory is stored with
The program instruction that can be executed by processor, processor caller are instructed to execute the above method.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of non-transient computer readable storage medium, the non-transient computer readable storage medium
Matter stores computer program, which makes computer execute above-mentioned method.
Distribution network reliability predictor method, device and equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention, by intra-region elements can
By property parameter, the blind number of the blind number of first outage rate in region and the first power failure duration in region, and line between bond area are obtained
The blind number of the line failure rate on road obtains the blind number of the blind number of second outage rate in region and the second power failure duration in region, root
The first user is obtained according to the blind number of the second power failure duration of the blind number and region of second outage rate of each region averagely to have a power failure time
Several blind number, the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration and blind numbers of the first power supply reliability, and further to the first user
Blind number, the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration and the blind number of the first power supply reliability of average frequency of power cut equalize respectively
Processing carries out the precompensation parameter of reliability prediction to obtain as power distribution network.This method, device and equipment, power distribution network is reliable
Property estimate in various precompensation parameters indicate and carry out operation by blind number, it is right in practice to simulate power distribution network as far as possible
The selection situation of element and route, to reach estimating with practical situation as close possible to raising is matched to distribution network reliability
The accuracy that electric network reliability is estimated.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below
There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is this hair
Bright some embodiments for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can be with root
Other attached drawings are obtained according to these attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart according to the distribution network reliability predictor method of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram according to the distribution net work structure of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram according to the distribution network reliability estimating device of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is the schematic diagram that equipment is estimated according to the distribution network reliability of the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
In attached drawing, technical scheme in the embodiment of the invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is
A part of the embodiment of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art
Every other embodiment obtained without creative efforts, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of distribution network reliability predictor method, with reference to Fig. 1, comprising: S11, according to power distribution network
Each region in each element dependability parameter, obtain first outage rate in each region blind number and each region
The first power failure duration blind number, dependability parameter include element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate repair duration peace
Equal scheduled overhaul duration；S12, according to the blind number of the line failure rate of interregional route, each region the first outage rate it is blind
The blind number of the first power failure duration in several and each region, obtain second outage rate in each region blind number and each area
The blind number of the second power failure duration in domain；S13 stops according to the second of the blind number of second outage rate in each region and each region
The blind number of electric duration obtains the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user and the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, root
According to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user, the blind number of the first power supply reliability is obtained；S14 averagely stops according to the first user
The blind number of electric number determines the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, is determined according to the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration
The mean value of first user averagely power failure duration determines the mean value of the first power supply reliability according to the blind number of the first power supply reliability,
By the mean value of the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, the first user averagely mean value of power failure duration and the first power supply reliability
Reliability prediction is carried out to power distribution network as precompensation parameter.
Specifically, power distribution network is divided into multiple regions, includes Various Components (including route), the kind of element in each region
Class is various, even and same element, there is also differences between multiple those elements, estimate to distribution network reliability
Cheng Zhong, the substantial amounts of element, it is difficult to determine the design parameter of each element, one by one so as to cause ginsengs most of in power distribution network
Counting has uncertainty, and in the present embodiment, the uncertainty of parameter is indicated by blind number.
The essence of blind number is that domain is G, gray function of the functional value on [0,1].Important numerical value there are two in blind number,
One is probable value, and one is confidence level, and the corresponding confidence level of each probable value, confidence level expression is meant that corresponding
Parameter takes the probability of corresponding probable value.The expression formula of blind number are as follows:
Due to the uncertainty of the parameter of element each in region, the outage rate in region and power failure duration is caused also to have not really
Qualitative, the outage rate and power failure duration in region can be indicated with blind number.In the present embodiment, according in each region of power distribution network
The dependability parameter of each element, obtain first outage rate in each region blind number and each region first have a power failure when
Long blind number, wherein dependability parameter includes element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate reparation duration and average plan
Overhaul duration.
First outage rate of above-mentioned zone and the first power failure duration are only the influence factors of the element in consideration region, and area
Various routes between domain, outage rate and power failure duration to region also have an impact, therefore second outage rate in region and second stops
Electric duration needs the line failure rate of route between bond area to obtain, likewise, the line failure rate of interregional route also has
Uncertainty can also be indicated with blind number；In the present embodiment, according to the blind number of the line failure rate of interregional route, each
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and each region of first outage rate in region, obtain each region second have a power failure
The blind number of second power failure duration of the blind number and each region of rate.
The acquisition of the blind number of second outage rate of above-mentioned zone and the blind number of the second power failure duration and power distribution network are interregional
Line connecting relation is related, such as distribution net work structure as shown in Figure 2, power supply system and 5 interregional routes are respectively
L1, l2, l3, l4 and l5, then the acquisition of the blind number of the second outage rate of above-mentioned zone can be indicated by following formula:
Wherein,For the blind number of second outage rate in the i-th region, For
The blind number of first outage rate in the i-th region,For the blind number of the line failure rate of the i-th route.
The acquisition of the blind number of second power failure duration of above-mentioned zone can be indicated by following formula:
Wherein,For the blind number of the second power failure duration in the i-th region,
For the blind number of the first power failure duration in the i-th region,For the blind number of the line failure rate of the i-th route.
Arithmetic between blind number can be completed by blind several arithmetic rules, specific for for blind several A and B,
The expression formula of A, B are as follows:
Then the result after the arithmetic between A and B can be obtained by possible value matrix below and reliability matrix:
Wherein, * expression adds, subtracts, multiplying or except arithmetic accords with, and indicates multiplication symbol.
Using A element identical with numerical value in the possibility value matrix of the * operation of B as one be worth and obtain after * operation can
Energy value sequence:It willCorresponding confidence level product is denoted asThe then * of blind several A and B
The function phi (z) of operation is denoted as:
According to the blind number of second outage rate in each region and the blind number of the second power failure duration in each region, the is obtained
The blind number of the blind number of one average frequency of power cut of user and the first user averagely power failure duration, averagely has a power failure according to the first user
The blind number of number obtains the blind number of the first power supply reliability；The blind number of first average frequency of power cut of user, the first user averagely stop
The expression formula difference of the blind number of the blind number and the first power supply reliability of electric duration is as follows:
Wherein,For the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user,For the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration,For the blind number of the first power supply reliability, Ni(i=1,2 ..., m) be the i-th region number of users,For
The blind number of second outage rate in the i-th region,For the blind number of the second power failure duration in the i-th region, T is system
Between timing.
The mean value that the first average frequency of power cut of user is determined according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user, according to first
The blind number of user's averagely power failure duration determines the mean value of the first user averagely power failure duration, according to the blind number of the first power supply reliability
The mean value for determining the first power supply reliability, by the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, the first user averagely power failure duration
Mean value and the mean value of the first power supply reliability carry out reliability prediction to power distribution network as precompensation parameter；Wherein, the first user is flat
Mean value, the first user averagely mean value of power failure duration and the expression of the mean value of the first power supply reliability of equal frequency of power cut will be corresponding
Blind number is converted into a determining value by default computation rule, determines that value is known as the mean value of corresponding parameter obtained from conversion, will
Blind number is converted into mean value by default computation rule, since mean value is to determine value, so that carrying out reliability prediction more to power distribution network
Intuitively.
The distribution network reliability predictor method of the present embodiment, by distribution network reliability estimate in various precompensation parameters pass through
Blind number indicates and carries out operation, simulates power distribution network as far as possible in practice to the selection situation of element and route, to reach
To estimating with practical situation as close possible to the accuracy that raising distribution network reliability is estimated to distribution network reliability.
Each area is obtained according to the dependability parameter of each element in each region of power distribution network based on above embodiments
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and each region of first outage rate in domain, comprising: for any area of power distribution network
Domain obtains in any region parameter value of each parameter in multiple production batch in the dependability parameter of each element,
Using each parameter in the parameter value in multiple production batch as multiple probable values in the blind number of corresponding parameter, and determination is each
The corresponding confidence level of multiple probable values in the blind number of parameter, wherein the scheduled overhaul rate in dependability parameter is multiple
Parameter value in production batch is identical；Based on connection relationship in series or in parallel between element in any region and blind
Number four fundamental rules budget rule, and according to the scheduled overhaul rate of each element, the element failure rate of each element in any region
Blind number, each element mean failure rate repair duration blind number and each element average scheduled overhaul duration blind number,
Determine the blind number of the blind number of the first outage rate of any region and the first power failure duration of any region.
Specifically, duration is repaired for the element failure rate in dependability parameter, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate and be averaged
Four kinds of parameters of scheduled overhaul duration, the probable value in the blind number of four kinds of parameters can be by the correspondence parameter that manufacturer provides each
Parameter value in production batch determines, the corresponding confidence level of each probable value then can be according in actual use to every
One production batch is determined using probability, can also be determined by other means.The scheduled overhaul provided due to manufacturer
Rate is a determining value, is indicated without using blind number, and element failure rate mean failure rate repairs duration and average scheduled overhaul duration
It is indicated using blind number, then according to the connection relationship in series or in parallel between intra-region elements, and is based on blind number four
Then budget rule, according to the blind number of the scheduled overhaul rate, the element failure rate of each element of each element in any region,
The mean failure rate of each element repairs the blind number of the blind number of duration and the average scheduled overhaul duration of each element, determine described in
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and any region of the first outage rate of any region.Wherein, two series connection
The element of connection carries out parameter merging by following calculating formula:
λ '=λ '1+λ′2；
Wherein,The element being connected in series for two carries out the blind number of the element failure rate after parameter merging,It is gone here and there for two
Join the blind number of the element failure rate of one of element in the element of connection,It is wherein another in the element being connected in series for two
The blind number of the element failure rate of a element, λ ' are that the element of two series connections carries out the scheduled overhaul rate after parameter merging, λ '1
The scheduled overhaul rate of one of element, λ ' in the element being connected in series for two2In the element being connected in series for two wherein
The scheduled overhaul rate of another element,The element being connected in series for two carries out the mean failure rate after parameter merging and repairs duration
Blind number,The mean failure rate of one of element repairs the blind number of duration in the element being connected in series for two,It is gone here and there for two
The mean failure rate for joining another one element in the element of connection repairs the blind number of duration,For two be connected in series element into
Mean failure rate after the merging of row parameter repairs the blind number of duration,One of element is flat in the element being connected in series for two
The blind number of equal fault restoration duration,The mean failure rate of another one element repairs duration in the element being connected in series for two
Blind number.
Two elements being connected in parallel carry out parameter merging by following calculating formula:
Wherein,The blind number of the element failure rate after parameter merging is carried out for two elements being connected in parallel,Simultaneously for two
Join the blind number of the element failure rate of one of element in the element of connection,It is wherein another in the element being connected in parallel for two
The blind number of the element failure rate of a element, λ ' are that two elements being connected in parallel carry out the scheduled overhaul rate after parameter merging, λ '1
The scheduled overhaul rate of one of element, λ ' in the element being connected in parallel for two2In the element being connected in parallel for two wherein
The scheduled overhaul rate of another element,The mean failure rate after parameter merging, which is carried out, for two elements being connected in parallel repairs duration
Blind number,The mean failure rate of one of element repairs the blind number of duration in the element being connected in parallel for two,Simultaneously for two
The mean failure rate for joining another one element in the element of connection repairs the blind number of duration,The element being connected in parallel for two into
Mean failure rate after the merging of row parameter repairs the blind number of duration,One of element is flat in the element being connected in parallel for two
The blind number of equal fault restoration duration,The mean failure rate of another one element repairs duration in the element being connected in parallel for two
Blind number.
By above-mentioned calculating formula, parameter merging is carried out two-by-two, finally obtains blind number, the scheduled overhaul of the failure rate in region
Rate, mean failure rate repair the blind number of duration and the blind number of average scheduled overhaul duration.
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and region of first outage rate in region is obtained by following formula:
Wherein,For the blind number of first outage rate in the i-th region,For the blind number of the failure rate in the i-th region, λ 'iIt is i-th
The scheduled overhaul rate in region,For the blind number of the first power failure duration in the i-th region,When being repaired for the mean failure rate in the i-th region
Long blind number,For the blind number of the average scheduled overhaul duration in the i-th region.
Based on above embodiments, the corresponding confidence level of multiple probable values in the blind number of each parameter is determined, comprising:
For any parameter, determine in all probable values in the blind number of any parameter between any two probable value it is opposite can
Energy degree；According to the opposite possibility degree Judgement Matricies in all probable values between any two probable value, wrapped in judgment matrix
Include characteristic root parameter；The Maximum characteristic root for determining judgment matrix, using Maximum characteristic root as the value of characteristic root parameter；It will judge square
Battle array constructs homogeneous equation as the coefficient matrix of equation；The feature vector of the solution composition of homogeneous equation is made into normalized, it will
Each vector value is as confidence level corresponding to corresponding probable value in feature vector after normalized.
Wherein, the expression formula of judgment matrix are as follows:
In above formula, bij(i=1,2 ..., m, j=1,2 ..., m) is phase of i-th of probable value relative to j-th of probable value
To possibility degree and j-th of probable value relative to the ratio between the opposite possibility degree of i-th of probable value, λ is characterized root parameter.
Specifically, using all probable values in the blind number of any parameter as probable value collection X=(x1, x2..., xm), for
A pair of of probable value x that probable value is concentratediAnd xj, to xiAnd xjPossibility degree be compared, ifIndicate probable value xjPhase
To probable value xiOpposite possibility degree,Indicate probable value xiOpposite probable value xjOpposite possibility degree, define bijUnder satisfaction
Formula:
And define judgment matrix are as follows:
Wherein, bij(i=1,2 ..., m, j=1,2 ..., m) is i-th probable value relative to the opposite of j-th probable value
Relative to the ratio between the opposite possibility degree of i-th of probable value, λ is characterized root parameter for possibility degree and j-th of probable value.
Opposite possibility degree indicates the ratio between the probability that two probable values occur, and i-th of probable value can relative to j-th
The opposite possibility degree that can be worth is the ratio for the probability that the probability that i-th of probable value occurs and j-th of probable value occur.For example, will
Multiple probable values of each parameter in blind number of the parameter value in multiple production batch as corresponding parameter, user are using
When some element, according to actual use situation, history service condition, determine that the element of the i-th production batch is jth production batch
K times of usage amount of element, then it represents that the probability that i-th of probable value of the parameter of the element occurs is that i-th of probable value goes out
K times of existing probability, then i-th of probable value is k relative to the opposite possibility degree of j-th of probable value；Or according to factory
To determine, possibility degree, the output of different production batch can embody different lifes to the output for each production batch that family provides relatively
The usage amount of the element of batch in actual use is produced, the output of the i-th production batch is the output of jth production batch
K times, then it is believed that i-th of probable value relative to j-th of probable value opposite possibility degree be k.
Judgment matrix B=0 is enabled, its Maximum characteristic root is solved, i.e., λ is maximized correspondence by the maximum value that λ takes in B=0 formula
Coefficient matrix of the B matrix as homogeneous equation, solve solution that homogeneous equation obtains as feature vector ξ=(c1, c2...,
cm), and feature vector ξ is normalized:
Using vector value each in the feature vector after normalized as confidence level corresponding to corresponding probable value.
Based on above embodiments, the first average frequency of power cut of user is determined according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Mean value, the mean values of the average power failure duration of the first users are determined according to the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, according to first
The blind number of power supply reliability determines the mean value of the first power supply reliability, comprising: will be in the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Each probable value confidence level corresponding with each probable value be multiplied respectively after the sum of products that obtains it is average as the first user
The mean value of frequency of power cut, by each probable value in the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration is corresponding with each probable value can
Mean value of the sum of products that reliability obtains after being multiplied respectively as the first user averagely power failure duration, by the first power supply reliability
The sum of products that each probable value confidence level corresponding with each probable value in blind number obtains after being multiplied respectively is supplied as first
The mean value of electric reliability.
Specifically, the present embodiment can determine the mean value of each parameter by the blind number of each parameter, for any parameter, by this
The sum of products that each probable value confidence level corresponding with each probable value in the blind number of one parameter obtains after being multiplied respectively is made
For the mean value of any parameter；The mean value of each parameter can be obtained by following formula:
Wherein, xpFor p-th of probable value in the blind number of parameter, αpFor xpCorresponding confidence level, m is can in the blind number of parameter
The total quantity that can be worth.
Based on above embodiments, the first average frequency of power cut of user is determined according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Mean value, the mean values of the average power failure duration of the first users are determined according to the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, according to first
The blind number of power supply reliability determines after the mean value of the first power supply reliability, further includes: determines that distributed generation resource accesses power distribution network
Line attachment；It is flat according to the blind number of the line failure rate of line attachment and the first user based on blind several arithmetic rules
The blind number of equal frequency of power cut obtains second user and is averaged the blind number of frequency of power cut, according to the blind of the line failure rate of line attachment
Several and the first user averagely power failure duration blind number, obtains the blind number of second user averagely power failure duration, according to line attachment
Line failure rate blind number and the first power supply reliability blind number, obtain the second power supply reliability blind number；According to second
The blind number of average frequency of power cut of user determines that second users are averaged the mean value of frequency of power cut, is averagely had a power failure duration according to second user
Blind number determine the mean values of the average power failure duration of second users, determine that the second power supplies are reliable according to the blind number of the second power supply reliability
The mean value of rate, second user is averaged the mean value of frequency of power cut, the second user averagely mean value of power failure duration and the second power supply can
Mean value by rate carries out reliability prediction as power distribution network of the precompensation parameter to access distributed generation resource.
Specifically, the present embodiment can also estimate the reliability of the power distribution network of access distributed generation resource, first really
Determine the line attachment of distributed generation resource access power distribution network, and obtain the blind number of the line failure rate of line attachment, according to tie-in line
The blind number of the line failure rate on road and the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user obtain second user and are averaged frequency of power cut
Blind number obtains second and uses according to the blind number of the line failure rate of line attachment and the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration
The blind number of family averagely power failure duration, according to the blind number of the line failure rate of line attachment and the blind number of the first power supply reliability,
Obtain the blind number of the second power supply reliability；Then determine that be averaged frequency of power cut, second user of the above second user is averagely stopped respectively
The determination method of the mean value of electric duration and the second power supply reliability, the mean value of three above parameter can also be used in above-described embodiment
The determination method of mean value, details are not described herein；Then the be averaged mean value of frequency of power cut, second user of second user is averagely had a power failure
The mean value of duration and the mean value of the second power supply reliability carry out reliable as power distribution network of the precompensation parameter to access distributed generation resource
Property is estimated.
Such as distribution net work structure as shown in Figure 2 has accessed distributed generation resource DG, the line attachment of DG access power distribution network is
The blind number of l6, the line failure rate of line attachment isAbove-mentioned reality can also be used in the acquisition methods of the blind number of the line failure rate
Apply the acquisition methods of blind number in example, then second user be averaged frequency of power cut, second user averagely power failure duration and second power supply can
Calculating formula by the blind number of rate is as follows:
Wherein,It is averaged the blind number of frequency of power cut for second user,For the first average frequency of power cut of user
Blind number,For the blind number of the line failure rate of line attachment,For the blind number of second user averagely power failure duration,
For the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration,For the blind number of the second power supply reliability,For the first power supply reliability
Blind number, PDGFor the output power of distributed generation resource, PLoad, iFor the prediction load power in the i-th region, m is the region of power distribution network
Total quantity.
Based on above embodiments, by second user be averaged the mean value of frequency of power cut, second user averagely power failure duration it is equal
Value and the second power supply reliability mean value as precompensation parameter to access distributed generation resource power distribution network progress reliability prediction it
Afterwards, further includes: according to the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user and second user be averaged frequency of power cut mean value obtain distribution
The access of formula power supply influences coefficient to the first of the average frequency of power cut of user of power distribution network, is averagely had a power failure duration according to the first user
Mean value and the mean value of second user averagely power failure duration obtain the access of distributed generation resource when averagely having a power failure to the family of power distribution network
Long second influences coefficient, obtains distributed generation resource according to the mean value of the first power supply reliability and the mean value of the second power supply reliability
Access coefficient is influenced on the third of the power supply reliability of power distribution network；Coefficient, the second influence coefficient and third shadow are influenced by first
Access of the coefficient as distributed generation resource is rung to the promotion efficacy parameter of the reliability of power distribution network.
Specifically, the present embodiment can also averagely have a power failure secondary according to the mean value and second user of the first average frequency of power cut of user
The access that several mean values obtains distributed generation resource influences coefficient to the first of the average frequency of power cut of user of power distribution network, according to first
The mean value of the user's averagely mean value of power failure duration and second user averagely power failure duration obtains the access of distributed generation resource to distribution
The second of the family of net averagely power failure duration influences coefficient, according to the equal of the mean value of the first power supply reliability and the second power supply reliability
The access that value obtains distributed generation resource influences coefficient to the third of the power supply reliability of power distribution network, for example, first influences coefficient, the
Two influence coefficients and third to influence coefficient to be positive value, then illustrate the access of distributed generation resource power distribution network is played promote power distribution network can
By the effect of property, positive value is bigger, illustrates that the effect for promoting reliability is more obvious.
Wherein the calculating formula of the first influence coefficient, the second influence coefficient and third influence coefficient is as follows:
In above formula,Coefficient is influenced for first,For the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user,For
Second user is averaged the mean value of frequency of power cut,Coefficient is influenced for second,For the first user averagely power failure duration
Mean value,For the mean value of second user averagely power failure duration,Coefficient is influenced for third,For the first power supply reliability
Mean value,For the mean value of the second power supply reliability, PDGFor the output power of distributed generation resource.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of distribution network reliability estimating device, with reference to Fig. 3, comprising: first obtains module
31, the second acquisition module 32, third obtain module 33 and estimate module 34, in which:
First obtains module 31, for the dependability parameter of each element in each region according to power distribution network, obtains every
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and each region of first outage rate in one region, dependability parameter includes element
Failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate repair duration and average scheduled overhaul duration；
Second obtains module 32, for being stopped according to the blind number of line failure rate of interregional route, the first of each region
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and each region of electric rate, obtains the blind number of second outage rate in each region, with
And the blind number of the second power failure duration in each region；
Third obtains module 33, for being stopped according to the blind number of the second outage rate and the second of each region in each region
The blind number of electric duration obtains the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user and the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, root
According to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user, the blind number of the first power supply reliability is obtained；
Module 34 is estimated, for determining the first average frequency of power cut of user according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Mean value, the mean values of the average power failure duration of the first users are determined according to the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, according to first
The blind number of power supply reliability determines the mean value of the first power supply reliability, and the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, first are used
The family averagely mean value of power failure duration and the mean value of the first power supply reliability carry out reliability prediction to power distribution network as precompensation parameter.
The device of the embodiment of the present invention can be used for executing the skill of distribution network reliability predictor method embodiment shown in FIG. 1
Art scheme, it is similar that the realization principle and technical effect are similar, and details are not described herein again.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of distribution network reliability and estimates equipment, with reference to Fig. 4, comprising: at least one processing
Device 41, at least one processor 42 and data/address bus 43；Wherein: processor 41 completes phase by data/address bus 43 with memory 42
Communication between mutually；Memory 42 is stored with the program instruction that can be executed by processor 41, and 41 caller of processor is instructed to hold
Method provided by the above-mentioned each method embodiment of row, for example, according in each region of power distribution network each element it is reliable
Property parameter, obtains the blind number of the blind number of first outage rate in each region and the first power failure duration in each region, reliability
Parameter includes element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate reparation duration and average scheduled overhaul duration；According to interregional line
First power failure duration of the blind number of the line failure rate on road, the blind number of first outage rate in each region and each region it is blind
Number, obtains the blind number of the blind number of second outage rate in each region and the second power failure duration in each region；According to each area
The blind number of second power failure duration of the blind number and each region of second outage rate in domain obtains the first average frequency of power cut of user
Blind number and the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration obtain first according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
The blind number of power supply reliability；The equal of the first average frequency of power cut of user is determined according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user
Value determines the mean value of the first user averagely power failure duration according to the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, according to the first power supply
The blind number of reliability determines the mean value of the first power supply reliability, and the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, the first user are put down
The mean value of power failure duration and the mean value of the first power supply reliability carry out reliability prediction to power distribution network as precompensation parameter.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of non-transient computer readable storage medium, the non-transient computer readable storage
Medium storing computer program, the computer program make the computer execute method provided by above-mentioned each method embodiment, example
Such as include: the dependability parameter of each element in each region according to power distribution network, obtains first outage rate in each region
The blind number of the first power failure duration in blind number and each region, dependability parameter include element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate, put down
Equal fault restoration duration and average scheduled overhaul duration；According to the blind number of the line failure rate of interregional route, each region
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and each region of the first outage rate, obtains the blind of second outage rate in each region
The blind number of the second power failure duration in several and each region；According to the blind number of second outage rate in each region and each area
The blind number of the second power failure duration in domain, when the blind number and the first user for obtaining the first average frequency of power cut of user averagely have a power failure
Long blind number obtains the blind number of the first power supply reliability according to the blind number of the first average frequency of power cut of user；According to the first user
The blind number of average frequency of power cut determines the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, according to the blind of the first user averagely power failure duration
Number determines the mean value of the first user averagely power failure duration, determines the first power supply reliability according to the blind number of the first power supply reliability
Mean value, by the mean value of the first average frequency of power cut of user, the first user averagely mean value of power failure duration and the first power supply reliability
Mean value as precompensation parameter to power distribution network carry out reliability prediction.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that: realize that all or part of the steps of above method embodiment can pass through
Computer program instructions relevant hardware is completed, and computer program above-mentioned can store to be situated between in a computer-readable storage
In matter, which when being executed, executes step including the steps of the foregoing method embodiments；And storage medium above-mentioned includes:
The various media that can store program code such as ROM, RAM, magnetic or disk.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can be understood that each embodiment can
It realizes by means of software and necessary general hardware platform, naturally it is also possible to pass through hardware.Based on this understanding, on
Stating technical solution, substantially the part that contributes to existing technology can be embodied in the form of software products in other words, should
Computer software product may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, such as ROM/RAM, magnetic disk, CD, including several fingers
It enables and using so that a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server or the network equipment etc.) executes each implementation
Method described in certain parts of example or embodiment.
Finally, it is stated that: the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although ginseng
According to previous embodiment, invention is explained in detail, those skilled in the art should understand that: it still can be with
It modifies the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features；And
These are modified or replaceed, the spirit and model of technical solution of various embodiments of the present invention that it does not separate the essence of the corresponding technical solution
It encloses.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of distribution network reliability predictor method characterized by comprising
According to the dependability parameter of each element in each region of power distribution network, the blind of first outage rate in each region is obtained
The blind number of the first power failure duration in several and each region, the dependability parameter include element failure rate, scheduled overhaul rate,
Mean failure rate repairs duration and average scheduled overhaul duration；
According to the blind number of the line failure rate of interregional route, the blind number of first outage rate in each region and each region
The blind number of first power failure duration obtains the blind number of second outage rate in each region and the second power failure duration in each region
Blind number；
According to the blind number of second outage rate in each region and the blind number of the second power failure duration in each region, obtains first and use
Family is averaged the blind number of frequency of power cut and the blind number of the first user averagely power failure duration, is averagely had a power failure according to first user
The blind number of number obtains the blind number of the first power supply reliability；
The mean value that first average frequency of power cut of user is determined according to the blind number of first average frequency of power cut of user, according to
The blind number of first user averagely power failure duration determines the mean value of first user averagely power failure duration, according to described first
The blind number of power supply reliability determines the mean value of first power supply reliability, by the equal of first average frequency of power cut of user
The mean value of value, the first user averagely mean value of power failure duration and first power supply reliability is as precompensation parameter to described
Power distribution network carries out reliability prediction.
2. the method according to claim 1, wherein each element in each region according to power distribution network
Dependability parameter obtains the blind number of the blind number of first outage rate in each region and the first power failure duration in each region, packet
It includes:
For any region of the power distribution network, each parameter in the dependability parameter of each element is obtained in any region
Parameter value in multiple production batch, using parameter value of each parameter in multiple production batch as the blind number of corresponding parameter
In multiple probable values, and determine the corresponding confidence level of multiple probable values in the blind number of each parameter, wherein it is described can
Parameter value of the scheduled overhaul rate in multiple production batch in property parameter is identical；
Based on the connection relationship in series or in parallel and blind several four fundamental rules budget rules between element in any region, and root
According to the scheduled overhaul rate of each element in any region, the blind number of the element failure rate of each element, each element it is flat
The blind number of the average scheduled overhaul duration of the blind number and each element of equal fault restoration duration determines the of any region
The blind number of first power failure duration of the blind number and any region of one outage rate.
3. according to the method described in claim 2, it is characterized in that, multiple probable values in the blind number of each parameter of the determination
Corresponding confidence level, comprising:
For any parameter, the phase in all probable values in the blind number of any parameter between any two probable value is determined
To possibility degree；
According to the opposite possibility degree Judgement Matricies in all probable values between any two probable value, in the judgment matrix
Including characteristic root parameter；
The Maximum characteristic root for determining the judgment matrix, using the Maximum characteristic root as the value of the characteristic root parameter；
Homogeneous equation is constructed using the judgment matrix as the coefficient matrix of equation；
The feature vector of the solution composition of the homogeneous equation is made into normalized, it will be every in the feature vector after normalized
One vector value is as confidence level corresponding to corresponding probable value.
4. the method according to claim 1, wherein described according to the blind of first average frequency of power cut of user
Number determines the mean value of first average frequency of power cut of user, determines institute according to the blind number of first user averagely power failure duration
The mean value for stating the first user averagely power failure duration determines that first power supply is reliable according to the blind number of first power supply reliability
The mean value of rate, comprising:
By each probable value confidence level point corresponding with each probable value in the blind number of first average frequency of power cut of user
Not Xiang Cheng after the mean value of the sum of products that obtains as first average frequency of power cut of user, first user is averagely stopped
The sum of products that each probable value confidence level corresponding with each probable value in the blind number of electric duration obtains after being multiplied respectively is made
For the mean value of first user averagely power failure duration, by each probable value in the blind number of first power supply reliability and every
Mean value of the sum of products that the corresponding confidence level of one probable value obtains after being multiplied respectively as first power supply reliability.
5. according to the method described in claim 3, it is characterized in that, the expression formula of the judgment matrix are as follows:
Wherein, bij(i=1,2 ..., m, j=1,2 ..., m) is relatively possibility of i-th of probable value relative to j-th of probable value
Relative to the ratio between the opposite possibility degree of i-th of probable value, λ is characterized root parameter for degree and j-th of probable value.
6. the method according to claim 1, wherein described according to the blind of first average frequency of power cut of user
Number determines the mean value of first average frequency of power cut of user, determines institute according to the blind number of first user averagely power failure duration
The mean value for stating the first user averagely power failure duration determines that first power supply is reliable according to the blind number of first power supply reliability
After the mean value of rate, further includes:
Determine that distributed generation resource accesses the line attachment of the power distribution network；
It is flat according to the blind number of the line failure rate of the line attachment and first user based on blind several arithmetic rules
The blind number of equal frequency of power cut obtains second user and is averaged the blind number of frequency of power cut, according to the line failure rate of the line attachment
Blind number and first user averagely power failure duration blind number, obtain the blind number of the average power failure duration of second user, according to
The blind number of the blind number of the line failure rate of the line attachment and first power supply reliability obtains the second power supply reliability
Blind number；
Determine that the second users are averaged the mean value of frequency of power cut according to the be averaged blind number of frequency of power cut of the second user, according to
The blind number of the second user averagely power failure duration determines the mean value of the second user averagely power failure duration, according to described second
The blind number of power supply reliability determines the mean values of second power supply reliabilities, and the second user is averaged the equal of frequency of power cut
The mean value of value, the second user averagely mean value of power failure duration and second power supply reliability is as precompensation parameter to access
The power distribution network of the distributed generation resource carries out reliability prediction.
7. according to the method described in claim 6, it is characterized in that, described be averaged the second user the equal of frequency of power cut
The mean value of value, the second user averagely mean value of power failure duration and second power supply reliability is as precompensation parameter to access
The power distribution network of the distributed generation resource carries out after reliability prediction, further includes:
According to the mean value of first average frequency of power cut of user and the second user be averaged frequency of power cut mean value obtain institute
The access for stating distributed generation resource influences coefficient to the first of the average frequency of power cut of user of the power distribution network, uses according to described first
The mean value of the family averagely mean value of power failure duration and the second user averagely power failure duration obtains the access of the distributed generation resource
Coefficient is influenced on the second of the family of the power distribution network averagely power failure duration, according to the mean value of first power supply reliability and described
The mean value of second power supply reliability obtains the access of the distributed generation resource to the third shadow of the power supply reliability of the power distribution network
Ring coefficient；
Influencing coefficient, the second influence coefficient and third for described first influences coefficient as the access of the distributed generation resource to institute
State the promotion efficacy parameter of the reliability of power distribution network.
8. a kind of distribution network reliability estimating device characterized by comprising
First acquisition module obtains each region for the dependability parameter of each element in each region according to power distribution network
The first outage rate blind number and each region the first power failure duration blind number, the dependability parameter include element therefore
Barrier rate, scheduled overhaul rate, mean failure rate repair duration and average scheduled overhaul duration；
Second obtains module, for according to the blind number of the line failure rate of interregional route, first outage rate in each region
The blind number of the first power failure duration in blind number and each region obtains the blind number of second outage rate in each region and each
The blind number of the second power failure duration in region；
Third obtains module, for according to the blind number of second outage rate in each region and the second power failure duration in each region
Blind number, obtain the first average frequency of power cut of user blind number and the first user averagely power failure duration blind number, according to described
The blind number of first average frequency of power cut of user obtains the blind number of the first power supply reliability；
Module is estimated, it is secondary to determine that first user averagely has a power failure for the blind number according to first average frequency of power cut of user
Several mean values determines the equal of first user averagely power failure duration according to the blind number of first user averagely power failure duration
Value determines the mean value of first power supply reliability according to the blind number of first power supply reliability, first user is put down
The mean value conduct of the mean value, first the user averagely mean value of power failure duration and first power supply reliability of equal frequency of power cut
Precompensation parameter carries out reliability prediction to the power distribution network.
9. a kind of distribution network reliability estimates equipment characterized by comprising
At least one processor, at least one processor and data/address bus；Wherein:
The processor and the memory complete mutual communication by the data/address bus；The memory is stored with can
The program instruction executed by the processor, the processor call described program instruction to execute as claim 1 to 7 is any
The method.
10. a kind of non-transient computer readable storage medium, which is characterized in that the non-transient computer readable storage medium is deposited
Computer program is stored up, the computer program makes the computer execute the method as described in claim 1 to 7 is any.
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| 赵书强 等: "基于盲数的配电系统可靠性评估", 《电力系统保护与控制》 * |
| 陈骥群: "考虑配电网网络重构的可靠性评估", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库 工程科技Ⅱ辑》 * |
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