CN109118108A - A kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems - Google Patents
A kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems, the fault data of the similar Mechatronic Systems of New Complex Mechatronic Systems is acquired first, statistical average time between failures, obtain failure rate, secondly the reliability major influence factors and specific evaluation index of New Complex Mechatronic Systems are counted, establish system reliability modifying factor overall merit hierarchical model, then the weight of each reliability effect factor is determined, the reliability modifying factor of similar Mechatronic Systems is determined, finally to New Complex Mechatronic Systems reliability prediction.The present invention can carry out reliability prediction to New Complex Mechatronic Systems, and weak link that is more scientific, reasonably finding out system is checked on for the design typification and batch production of system, to improve the q&r of system.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to PRE-CALCULATING FOR RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTS technical fields, and in particular to a kind of suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems
The design of method for predicting reliability.
Background technique
Reliability prediction be during product development, according to the composition of product, the function of product, product working environment
Deng estimating the dependability parameter of product, and be compared with the index result of Reliability Distribution, determine the estimated knot that is carried out
Whether fruit reaches the quantitative requirement of reliability index.Though reliability prediction cannot directly effectively improve product reliability, can
To carry out lateral comparison for a variety of Alternative designs, not only meet reliability and other performance requirements to select, but also can be
The preferred plan for reaching good economic benefit in terms of cost accounting, can also be evaluated in product design process its whether meet it is pre-
The reliability requirement of phase is correspondingly improved measure for the defects of scheme and insufficient formulation in time, it is ensured that product meets regulation
Reliability performance measure, push reliability design constantly stride forward.
Reliability already becomes the common problem of complex electromechanical systems, especially as the reliable of New Complex Mechatronic Systems
Property problem is increasingly valued by people.Most of integrity problem of product derives from the design phase, in stage life-cycle
Can period, Mechatronic Systems securely and reliably, efficiently run, and can be critically depend on rationally correctly to system in the design phase
Carry out reliability prediction.
At present there is common method for predicting reliability in engineering: component count method, Stress Analysis Method, similar comparison method, function
Energy prediction method, similar complexity method, physics of failure analytic approach etc..Wherein similar comparison method be one kind contain conventional expectations, can
By the method for predicting of all multi informations such as property test, accident analysis, by seek purposes, performance and in terms of with develop pair
As similar existing product, its reliability level is passed through into the predicted value after amendment as developing products reliability.
Mechatronic Systems as typical mechanical, electrical, liquid integrated system, functional complexity, structural complexity, recoverability,
The reliability factors such as technical level, components credit rating, service load, environmental condition, maintenance situation all affect production
The reliability level of product, when carrying out reliability prediction to product, the influence degree of each reliability factor is all different.
Therefore, when carrying out reliability prediction to New Complex Mechatronic Systems, need more reasonably to treat with a certain discrimination each factor to system
The influence of reliability, to conveniently correctly identify system weakness and be optimized to system.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to propose to a kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems, science is closed
Reason ground combines similar comparison method and interval based AHP, carries out quantitative analysis to reliability effect factor, finds out the thin of system
Weak link, to improve the q&r of system.
The technical solution of the present invention is as follows: a kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems, including with
Lower step:
S1, acquire New Complex Mechatronic Systems similar Mechatronic Systems fault data, when counting its mean time between failures
Between, and failure rate is obtained according to average time between failures.
S2, the reliability effect factor and specific evaluation index for counting New Complex Mechatronic Systems, establish system reliability
Modifying factor overall merit hierarchical model.
S3, system reliability modifying factor overall merit level mould is determined using interval based AHP and similar comparison method
The weight and difference degree of each reliability effect factor in type, and according to the weight and difference degree meter of each reliability effect factor
Calculation obtains the reliability modifying factor of similar Mechatronic Systems.
S4, failure rate and reliability modifying factor according to similar Mechatronic Systems, are calculated New Complex Mechatronic Systems
Anticipated failure rate, and expected by reliability of the anticipated failure rate to New Complex Mechatronic Systems.
Further, step S1 include it is following step by step:
S11, the structure according to New Complex Mechatronic Systems, functional characteristics choose the similar Mechatronic Systems of m platform, and count every
The average time between failures of the similar Mechatronic Systems of platform.
S12, frequency histogram map analysis is carried out to the average time between failures of statistics, obtains becoming for probability density function
Gesture, and according to frequency histogram group technology, draw cumulative distribution function tendency chart.
S13, in conjunction with frequency histogram and cumulative distribution function tendency chart, choose fault data distributed model.
S14, the failure rate λ that each similar Mechatronic Systems is calculated according to fault data distributed modelj, wherein 1≤j≤m.
Further, step S2 specifically:
The reliability effect factor and specific evaluation index for counting New Complex Mechatronic Systems, reliability modifying factor is made
Rule layer is established using reliability effect factor as the class factor under destination layer for destination layer；Each specific evaluation index is made
For the sub- factor under each class factor, indicator layer is established, to construct system reliability modifying factor overall merit hierarchical model.
Further, step S3 include it is following step by step:
S31, the weight vectors that each class factor in rule layer is determined using interval based AHP
S32, the weight vectors that every sub- factor in indicator layer is determined using interval based AHP
S33, according to the weight vectors of every sub- factorObtain the difference degree of every sub- factor
S34, according to the weight vectors of every sub- factorAnd difference degreeThe difference of each class factor is calculated
Degree
S35, according to the weight vectors of each class factorAnd difference degreeThe reliable of similar Mechatronic Systems is calculated
Property modifying factor Wj。
Further, step S31 specifically:
Multilevel iudge matrix of each class factor to destination layer in building rule layerIts
InIndicate that k-th of class factor and weight ratio of first of class factor relative to destination layer, value are 1~9 model
Interval number or its reciprocal, the number of 1≤k≤n, 1≤l≤n, n for class factor in enclosing, A-=(akl -)n×n, A+=(akl +)n×n,
akl -,akl +It indicatesThe minimum value and maximum value of interval number.
A is sought using interval number eigenvalue vector method respectively-、A+Weight vectors, be denoted as x-、x+, and calculated by formula (1)
To the weight vectors of each class factor
Wherein α, β are weight vectors intermediate parameters, and
Further, step S32 specifically:
Multilevel iudge matrix of each sub- factor to the affiliated class factor of rule layer in building indicator layer
WhereinIndicate that v-th of sub- factor and w-th of sub- factor are relative to k-th of class factor under k-th of class factor
Weight ratio, value is interval number in 1~9 range or it is reciprocal, and 1≤v≤N, 1≤w≤N, N are son under k-th of class factor
The number of factor, Ak -=(avw -)N×N, Ak +=(avw +)N×N, avw -,avw +It indicatesThe minimum value and maximum value of interval number.
A is sought using interval number eigenvalue vector method respectivelyk -、Ak +Weight vectors, be denoted as xk -、xk +, and calculated by formula (2)
Obtain the weight vectors of each class factor
WhereinIndicate the weight of v-th of sub- factor under k-th of class factor, αk,βkFor weight vectors intermediate parameters, and
Further, in step S31Value determine method are as follows:
When value is 1, indicate that k-th of class factor and first of class factor are of equal importance；
When value is 3, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is slightly important；
When value is 5, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is more important；
When value is 7, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is extremely important；
When value is 9, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is absolutely essential；
When value is 2,4,6,8, indicate that k-th of class factor is in 1,3,5,7,9 values compared with first of class factor
Intermediate state.
Further, in step S32Value determine method are as follows:
When value is 1, indicate that v-th of sub- factor and w-th of sub- factor are of equal importance；
When value is 3, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is slightly important；
When value is 5, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is more important；
When value is 7, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is extremely important；
When value is 9, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is absolutely essential；
When value is 2,4,6,8, indicate that v-th of sub- factor is in 1,3,5,7,9 values compared with w-th of sub- factor
Intermediate state.
Further, step S33 specifically:
The each sub- factor for comparing indicator layer, according to the difference degree of New Complex Mechatronic Systems and similar Mechatronic Systems,
Choose the interval number or its difference degree reciprocal to v-th of sub- factor under k-th of class factor of 1-9 rangeInto
Row assignment, method particularly includes:
If change of the New Complex Mechatronic Systems compared to similar system causes reliability level to improve, according to reliability
The degree that level improves takes corresponding interval number in 1~9 range；If causing reliability level to reduce after changing, according to reciprocal
Property takes the inverse of respective bins number.
Further, in step S34 class factor difference degreeCalculation formula are as follows:
WhereinIndicate the difference degree of k-th of class factor.
Further, in step S35 similar Mechatronic Systems reliability modifying factor WjCalculation method are as follows:
According to the weight vectors of each class factorAnd difference degreeObtain the reliability of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems
Modifying factorAre as follows:
Again by reliability modifying factorBlurring is blurred formula are as follows:
Wherein WjIndicate the reliability modifying factor of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems after being blurred,It is fuzzy
Change the factor andWj +And Wj -It respectively indicatesInterval number
Maximum value and minimum value, α0For weight, and 0≤α0≤1。
Further, in step S4 New Complex Mechatronic Systems anticipated failure rateCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein λjIndicate the failure rate of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems, WjIndicate j-th similar Mechatronic Systems after blurring
Reliability modifying factor.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: the present invention acquires the failure of the similar Mechatronic Systems of New Complex Mechatronic Systems first
Data, statistical average time between failures (MTBF), obtain failure rate, then count the reliability master of New Complex Mechatronic Systems
Influence factor and specific evaluation index are wanted, system reliability modifying factor overall merit hierarchical model is established, secondly determination respectively may be used
By the weight of property influence factor, the reliability modifying factor of similar Mechatronic Systems is determined, it finally can to New Complex Mechatronic Systems
It is estimated by property.The present invention can carry out reliability prediction to New Complex Mechatronic Systems, more scientific, reasonably find out the thin of system
Weak link is checked on for the design typification and batch production of system, to improve the q&r of system.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 show a kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Flow chart.
Fig. 2 show system reliability modifying factor overall merit hierarchical model schematic diagram provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Carry out detailed description of the present invention illustrative embodiments with reference to the drawings.It should be appreciated that shown in attached drawing and
The embodiment of description is only exemplary, it is intended that is illustrated the principle and spirit of the invention, and is not limited model of the invention
It encloses.
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems, such as Fig. 1 institute
Show, include the following steps S1~S4:
S1, acquire New Complex Mechatronic Systems similar Mechatronic Systems fault data, when counting its mean time between failures
Between (MTBF), and failure rate is obtained according to average time between failures.
Step S1 includes following S11~S14 step by step:
S11, the structure according to New Complex Mechatronic Systems, functional characteristics choose the similar Mechatronic Systems of m platform, count every
The average time between failures of similar Mechatronic Systems.In the embodiment of the present invention, m=4.
S12, frequency histogram map analysis is carried out to the average time between failures of statistics, obtains becoming for probability density function
Gesture, and according to frequency histogram group technology, draw cumulative distribution function tendency chart.
S13, in conjunction with frequency histogram and cumulative distribution function tendency chart, choose fault data distributed model.
In the embodiment of the present invention, it can carry out curve fitting by matlab software to data, judge fitting of distribution effect
It is whether best, to select suitable fault data distributed model.Fault data distributed model may be selected exponential distribution model,
Normal distribution model, logarithm normal distribution model or Weibull distribution model.
S14, the failure rate λ that each similar Mechatronic Systems is calculated according to fault data distributed modelj, wherein 1≤j≤4.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the failure-rate data of each similar Mechatronic Systems is as shown in table 1.
Table 1
| Product serial number j | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Failure rate λj/h-1 | 1.470×10-4 | 1.234×10-4 | 1.699×10-4 | 1.388×10-4 |
S2, the reliability effect factor and specific evaluation index for counting New Complex Mechatronic Systems, by reliability modifying factor
Son establishes rule layer using reliability effect factor as the class factor under destination layer as destination layer；Each specific evaluation is referred to
It is denoted as indicator layer being established, to construct system reliability modifying factor overall merit level for the sub- factor under each class factor
Model.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the reliability effect factor of New Complex Mechatronic Systems is as shown in table 2.
Table 2
Above-mentioned 5 influence factors are split into the index for being easy quantization, so that it is comprehensive to construct system reliability modifying factor
Analysis level model, as shown in Figure 2.
S3, system reliability modifying factor overall merit level mould is determined using interval based AHP and similar comparison method
The weight and difference degree of each reliability effect factor in type, and according to the weight and difference degree meter of each reliability effect factor
Calculation obtains the reliability modifying factor of similar Mechatronic Systems.
Step S3 includes following S31~S35 step by step:
S31, the weight vectors that each class factor in rule layer is determined using interval based AHP
Multilevel iudge matrix of each class factor to destination layer in building rule layerIts
InIndicate that k-th of class factor and weight ratio of first of class factor relative to destination layer, value are 1~9 model
Interval number or its inverse in enclosing, 1≤k≤n, 1≤l≤n, n are the number of class factor, n=5, A in the embodiment of the present invention-=
(akl -)n×n, A+=(akl +)n×n, akl -,akl +It indicatesThe minimum value and maximum value of interval number.
In the embodiment of the present invention,Value Scale criterion it is as shown in table 3.
Table 3
A is sought using interval number eigenvalue vector method (Interval Eigenvector Method, IEM) respectively-、A+Weight
Vector is denoted as x-、x+, and the weight vectors of each class factor are calculated by formula (1)
Wherein α, β are weight vectors intermediate parameters, and
Under normal circumstances, as 0 < α < 1 < β, the consistency of the multilevel iudge matrix is preferable, that is, can be used.
By taking the similar Mechatronic Systems of First as an example, the weight matrix of each class factor of rule layer is as shown in table 4.
Table 4
| U1 | U2 | U3 | U4 | U5 | |
| U1 | [1.0,1.0] | [0.2,0.6] | [0.15,0.5] | [0.5,0.9] | [0.3,0.7] |
| U2 | [1.0,1.0] | [0.6,1.0] | [1.3,2.1] | [0.9,1.6] | |
| U3 | [1.0,1.0] | [1.7,2.3] | [1.2,1.8] | ||
| U4 | [1.0,1.0] | [0.5,1.0] | |||
| U5 | [1.0,1.0] |
Wherein UkIndicate k-th of class factor, the weight that each class factor is calculated according to IEM method is as follows:
S32, the weight vectors that every sub- factor in indicator layer is determined using interval based AHP
Multilevel iudge matrix of each sub- factor to the affiliated class factor of rule layer in building indicator layer
WhereinIndicate that v-th of sub- factor and w-th of sub- factor are relative to k-th of class factor under k-th of class factor
Weight ratio, value is interval number in 1~9 range or it is reciprocal；1≤v≤N, 1≤w≤N, N are son under k-th of class factor
The number of factor；Ak -=(avw -)N×N, Ak +=(avw +)N×N；In the embodiment of the present invention, if choosing the 1st class factor (composition knot
Structure), then N=5；If choosing other class factors, N=3, avw -,avw +It indicatesThe minimum value and maximum value of interval number.
In the embodiment of the present invention,Value Scale criterion it is as shown in table 5.
Table 5
A is sought using interval number eigenvalue vector method respectivelyk -、Ak +Weight vectors, be denoted as xk -、xk +, and calculated by formula (2)
Obtain the weight vectors of each class factor
WhereinIndicate the weight of v-th of sub- factor under k-th of class factor, αk,βkFor weight vectors intermediate parameters, and
Equally by taking the composed structure of the similar Mechatronic Systems of First as an example, the weight matrix such as table of each sub- factor of indicator layer
Shown in 6.
Table 6
Wherein u1vIt indicates v-th of sub- factor under first class factor (composed structure), composition is calculated according to IEM method
The weight of each sub- factor under structure criterion:
The weight of each sub- factor under remaining class factor can be calculated using same method.
S33, according to the weight vectors of every sub- factorObtain the difference degree of every sub- factor
Each sub- factor for comparing indicator layer, according to the difference degree of New Complex Mechatronic Systems and similar Mechatronic Systems, choosing
Take the interval number or its difference degree reciprocal to v-th of sub- factor under k-th of class factor of 1-9 rangeInto
Row assignment, method particularly includes:
If change of the New Complex Mechatronic Systems compared to similar system causes reliability level to improve, according to reliability
The degree that level improves takes corresponding interval number in 1~9 range；If causing reliability level to reduce after changing, according to reciprocal
Property takes the inverse of respective bins number.
Equally by taking the composed structure of the similar Mechatronic Systems of First as an example, the difference degree matrix of 5 sub- factors such as 7 institute of table
Show.
Table 7
| Sub- factor | u11 | u12 | u13 | u14 | u15 |
| Difference degree | [0.8,1.0] | [1.3,1.5] | [1.2,1.6] | [0.5,0.8] | [0.9,1.1] |
S34, according to the weight vectors of every sub- factorAnd difference degreeThe difference of each class factor is calculated
DegreeCalculation formula are as follows:
WhereinIndicate the difference degree of k-th of class factor.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the difference degree of each class factor of rule layer is as shown in table 8.
Table 8
S35, according to the weight vectors of each class factorAnd difference degreeThe reliable of similar Mechatronic Systems is calculated
Property modifying factor Wj。
According to the weight vectors of each class factorAnd difference degreeObtain the reliability of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems
Modifying factorAre as follows:
Again by reliability modifying factorBlurring is blurred formula are as follows:
Wherein WjIndicate the reliability modifying factor of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems after being blurred,It is fuzzy
Change the factor andWj +And Wj -It respectively indicatesInterval number
Maximum value and minimum value, α0For weight, the significance level of mean value and difference, and 0≤α are reflected0≤1。
In the embodiment of the present invention, α is taken0=0.45, the reliability modifying factor W of the similar Mechatronic Systems of First can be obtained1=
1.046, illustrate that the reliability level outline of New Complex Mechatronic Systems is higher than the similar Mechatronic Systems of First.
The reliability modifying factor W of remaining each similar Mechatronic Systems is successively acquired using the above method2、W3、W4Respectively
0.875、1.357、0.966。
S4, failure rate and reliability modifying factor according to similar Mechatronic Systems, are calculated New Complex Mechatronic Systems
Anticipated failure rate, and expected by reliability of the anticipated failure rate to New Complex Mechatronic Systems.
The anticipated failure rate of New Complex Mechatronic SystemsCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein λjIndicate the failure rate of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems, WjIndicate j-th similar Mechatronic Systems after blurring
Reliability modifying factor.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the anticipated failure rate of New Complex Mechatronic Systems is finally acquiredIt is 1.372 × 10-4, from
From the point of view of intended result, the failure-rate level of New Complex Mechatronic Systems will be lower than the average value of existing like product.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand that the embodiments described herein, which is to help reader, understands this hair
Bright principle, it should be understood that protection scope of the present invention is not limited to such specific embodiments and embodiments.This field
Those of ordinary skill disclosed the technical disclosures can make according to the present invention and various not depart from the other each of essence of the invention
The specific variations and combinations of kind, these variations and combinations are still within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of method for predicting reliability suitable for New Complex Mechatronic Systems, which comprises the following steps:
S1, acquire New Complex Mechatronic Systems similar Mechatronic Systems fault data, count its average time between failures, and
Failure rate is obtained according to average time between failures；
S2, the reliability effect factor and specific evaluation index for counting New Complex Mechatronic Systems establish system reliability amendment
Factor overall merit hierarchical model；
S3, it is determined in system reliability modifying factor overall merit hierarchical model using interval based AHP and similar comparison method
The weight and difference degree of each reliability effect factor, and calculated according to the weight and difference degree of each reliability effect factor
To the reliability modifying factor of similar Mechatronic Systems；
S4, failure rate and reliability modifying factor according to similar Mechatronic Systems, are calculated the pre- of New Complex Mechatronic Systems
Failure rate is counted, and is expected by reliability of the anticipated failure rate to New Complex Mechatronic Systems.
2. method for predicting reliability according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the step S1 include it is following step by step:
S11, the structure according to New Complex Mechatronic Systems, functional characteristics choose the similar Mechatronic Systems of m platform, and count every phase
Like the average time between failures of Mechatronic Systems；
S12, frequency histogram map analysis is carried out to the average time between failures of statistics, obtains the trend of probability density function, and
According to frequency histogram group technology, cumulative distribution function tendency chart is drawn；
S13, in conjunction with frequency histogram and cumulative distribution function tendency chart, choose fault data distributed model；
S14, the failure rate λ that each similar Mechatronic Systems is calculated according to fault data distributed modelj, wherein 1≤j≤m.
3. method for predicting reliability according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the step S2 specifically:
The reliability effect factor and specific evaluation index for counting New Complex Mechatronic Systems, using reliability modifying factor as mesh
It marks layer and establishes rule layer using reliability effect factor as the class factor under destination layer；Using each specific evaluation index as every
Sub- factor under a class factor, establishes indicator layer, to construct system reliability modifying factor overall merit hierarchical model.
4. method for predicting reliability according to claim 3, which is characterized in that the step S3 include it is following step by step:
S31, the weight vectors that each class factor in rule layer is determined using interval based AHP
S32, the weight vectors that every sub- factor in indicator layer is determined using interval based AHP
S33, according to the weight vectors of every sub- factorObtain the difference degree of every sub- factor
S34, according to the weight vectors of every sub- factorAnd difference degreeThe difference degree of each class factor is calculated
S35, according to the weight vectors of each class factorAnd difference degreeThe reliability that similar Mechatronic Systems is calculated is repaired
Positive divisor Wj。
5. method for predicting reliability according to claim 4, which is characterized in that the step S31 specifically:
Multilevel iudge matrix of each class factor to destination layer in building rule layerWhereinIndicate that k-th of class factor and weight ratio of first of class factor relative to destination layer, value are 1~9 range
Interior interval number or its reciprocal, the number of 1≤k≤n, 1≤l≤n, n for class factor, A-=(akl -)n×n, A+=(akl +)n×n,
akl -,akl +It indicatesThe minimum value and maximum value of interval number；
A is sought using interval number eigenvalue vector method respectively-、A+Weight vectors, be denoted as x-、x+, and be calculated by formula (1) each
The weight vectors of class factor
Wherein α, β are weight vectors intermediate parameters, and
The step S32 specifically:
Multilevel iudge matrix of each sub- factor to the affiliated class factor of rule layer in building indicator layer
WhereinIndicate that v-th of sub- factor and w-th of sub- factor are relative to k-th of class factor under k-th of class factor
Weight ratio, value is interval number in 1~9 range or it is reciprocal, and 1≤v≤N, 1≤w≤N, N are son under k-th of class factor
The number of factor, Ak -=(avw -)N×N, Ak +=(avw +)N×N, avw -,avw +It indicatesThe minimum value and maximum value of interval number；
A is sought using interval number eigenvalue vector method respectivelyk -、Ak +Weight vectors, be denoted as xk -、xk +, and be calculated by formula (2)
The weight vectors of each class factor
WhereinIndicate the weight of v-th of sub- factor under k-th of class factor, αk,βkFor weight vectors intermediate parameters, and
6. method for predicting reliability according to claim 5, which is characterized in that in the step S31Value determine
Method are as follows:
When value is 1, indicate that k-th of class factor and first of class factor are of equal importance；
When value is 3, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is slightly important；
When value is 5, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is more important；
When value is 7, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is extremely important；
When value is 9, indicate that than first class factor of k-th of class factor is absolutely essential；
When value is 2,4,6,8, indicate that k-th of class factor is in the centre of 1,3,5,7,9 values compared with first of class factor
State；
In the step S32Value determine method are as follows:
When value is 1, indicate that v-th of sub- factor and w-th of sub- factor are of equal importance；
When value is 3, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is slightly important；
When value is 5, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is more important；
When value is 7, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is extremely important；
When value is 9, indicate that than w-th sub- factor of v-th of sub- factor is absolutely essential；
When value is 2,4,6,8, indicate that v-th of sub- factor is in the centre of 1,3,5,7,9 values compared with w-th of sub- factor
State.
7. method for predicting reliability according to claim 4, which is characterized in that the step S33 specifically:
Each sub- factor for comparing indicator layer, according to the difference degree of New Complex Mechatronic Systems and similar Mechatronic Systems, choosing
Take the interval number or its difference degree reciprocal to v-th of sub- factor under k-th of class factor of 1-9 rangeInto
Row assignment, method particularly includes:
If change of the New Complex Mechatronic Systems compared to similar system causes reliability level to improve, according to reliability level
The degree of raising takes corresponding interval number in 1~9 range；If causing reliability level to reduce after changing, taken according to reciprocity
The inverse of respective bins number.
8. method for predicting reliability according to claim 4, which is characterized in that the difference of class factor in the step S34
DegreeCalculation formula are as follows:
WhereinIndicate the difference degree of k-th of class factor.
9. method for predicting reliability according to claim 4, which is characterized in that similar Mechatronic Systems in the step S35
Reliability modifying factor WjCalculation method are as follows:
According to the weight vectors of each class factorAnd difference degreeObtain the reliability modifying factor of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems
SonAre as follows:
Again by reliability modifying factorBlurring is blurred formula are as follows:
Wherein WjIndicate the reliability modifying factor of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems after being blurred,It is the blurring factor
AndWj +And Wj -It respectively indicatesThe maximum value of interval number
And minimum value, α0For weight, and 0≤α0≤1。
10. method for predicting reliability according to claim 4, which is characterized in that New Complex is electromechanical in the step S4
The anticipated failure rate of systemCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein λjIndicate the failure rate of j-th of similar Mechatronic Systems, WjIndicate the reliable of j-th similar Mechatronic Systems after blurring
Property modifying factor.
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