CN109063941A - A kind of method of the straight power purchase transaction risk assessment of Generation Side - Google Patents
A kind of method of the straight power purchase transaction risk assessment of Generation Side Download PDFInfo
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- CN109063941A CN109063941A CN201810128104.9A CN201810128104A CN109063941A CN 109063941 A CN109063941 A CN 109063941A CN 201810128104 A CN201810128104 A CN 201810128104A CN 109063941 A CN109063941 A CN 109063941A
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Abstract
The invention belongs to electricity market fields, it is related to one kind in the case where supply and demand bilateral participates in marketing, Generation Side user carries out the transaction risk appraisal procedure of straight power purchase, comprising: step 1): the wind-powered electricity generation prediction based on Markov, state demarcation is carried out to research variable, obtains state-transition matrix
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to electricity market fields, are related to a kind of in the case where supply and demand bilateral participates in marketing, Generation Side
User carries out the transaction risk appraisal procedure of straight power purchase, belongs to the innovation and improvement of the methods of risk assessment to the transaction of straight power purchase.
Background technique
Under new electricity reshaping gesture, the Direct Purchase of Electric Energy by Large Users transaction that clean energy resource participates in will become the main product of power market transaction
One of kind.Clean energy resource has the characteristics that fluctuation is big and randomness is strong, fluctuation and season, area and power plant's scale etc.
Factor is related.According to historical data, usable probability index describes the fluctuation feature of power plant, sums up a wind-powered electricity generation Universal Die
Type.
Clean energy resource is since cost of electricity-generating is higher, so being not engaged in the enthusiasm of electricity market, therefore government can give
Its corresponding policy subsidy.Direct Purchase of Electric Energy by Large Users is bilateral transaction, and the user for participating in marketing can be obtained benefit according to it
Profit decides whether to trade, so the core of electricity transaction is price.Under conditions of policy, transaction and price are decontroled,
It is analyzed from the angle of marketing, judges whether transaction is feasible.Generation Side, power grid and user can participate in electric power city
In, tripartite earns a profit in electricity transaction, and transaction can reach.It, will therefore, it is necessary to obtain the expectation electricity price of three
The price negotiated in bilateral transaction is compared with it, if three can favorably obtain, transaction is just feasible.Analysis user is willing to
Meaning participates in the case where market, and identification will affect the factor of user intention, and be divided into sensitivity factors and non-sensibility factor.
Due to new energy and distributed energy participate in the transaction of straight power purchase increase with the uncertain factors such as the opening of sale of electricity side,
Electricity transaction faces many risks threat in the process of implementation.During trading execution, Generation Side user is possible to can not
Power generation or electricity consumption side user break one's promise as required, and principle is caused to think that transaction can not be completed.So can to Generation Side user into
Row load prediction, quantifies external environment, and consider that Generation Side has concluded the transaction and broken a contract the factors such as can influence caused by it,
It obtains transaction and executes probability, indicate a possibility that honouring an agreement, for evaluating transaction risk, grasp risk in advance, and be next
Rulemaking is provided fundamental basis.Therefore, large user's direct dealing under supply and demand fluctuation need to be researched and analysed and carry out effective wind
Dangerous early warning can help to the safe operation of maintenance electric system.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, the purpose of the present invention is the feasibilities for participating in marketing to supply and demand bilateral to analyze, and
It trades to the straight power purchase of Generation Side and carries out risk assessment, go out monastic rule for Buddhists for further formulation electricity transaction and theoretical foundation is then provided.
To achieve the above object, the following technical solutions are proposed by the present invention: based on Markov chain to long in wind power progress
Phase prediction, under conditions of trading relieving, analysis transaction participates in the feasibility in market, and in feasible situation of trading, calculating is single
The venture worth of position electricity transaction, the index reflect transaction risk.
1) medium- and long-term forecasting is carried out to wind-powered electricity generation generated output based on Markov；
2) it under conditions of policy, transaction and price are decontroled, is analyzed from marketing angle, using price as core
Whether the heart, analysis transaction are feasible；
3) venture worth of unit of account electricity transaction.
Above-mentioned steps 1) in, state demarcation is carried out to research variable, calculate variable states probability vector, calculate
Corresponding probability transfer matrix predicts state where subsequent time variable.Firstly, it is necessary to wind power undulate quantity
Amplitude variation assessed, determine its threshold value.Wind power time series is carried out first-order difference, obtains wind power output wave
Time series { the x of momentum1,x2,…,xn,xn+1, then the value range of the sequence can be divided into r discrete states by threshold value
Set S={ s1,s2,…,sr}。
Preceding n value based on t moment undulate quantity status switch, calculates the value x of t+1 moment undulate quantityn+1S can be fallen into1,
s2,…,srIn which state.If the preceding n data x of undulate quantity sequence1,x2,…,xnIn, there is NiA data fall in siIn, haveThen state siThe frequency of generation are as follows:Then, the initial probability of the undulate quantity under different conditions is write as
Initial probability vector R (t) can be obtained in vectorT.State-transition matrix can finally be obtainedReflect wind-powered electricity generation with this
Medium-term and long-term power producing characteristics.
Above-mentioned steps 2) in, pricing system is studied, the rate for incorporation into the power network and electricity consumption electricity price of different power plant are different,
Electricity price is determined by more innings of common programmes.According to file search price, including T-D tariff and landing price, electricity power enterprise
The price also talked out is compared with stake electrovalence.Required electricity price has: power plant's online price；Power grid transmission & distribution price；With
Family catalog price；Governmental fund and additional；The price that market is concluded the transaction.Analyze the cost and benefit of enterprise, power grid and large user
Profit, meter and government subsidy and the abandonment amount of wind park etc., analyze this three have it is profitless obtain, if three has profit that can obtain,
Transaction just has feasibility.It is analyzed according to the result that above-mentioned two step obtains, analyzes it more than certain price, supplied
It has a mind to enter market to side user, and analyzes the influence factor that can influence transaction, and these factors are divided into sensible factor
With insensitive factor.Power plant profit, the recycling of meter and government subsidy, T-D tariff and fixed cost are analyzed, if price is higher than
Cost has profit that can obtain, power plant can agree to that transaction is reached；Power grid profit is analyzed, if T-D tariff is higher than power grid construction cost
Recycling, then power grid can agree to transaction reach；Demand-side profit is analyzed, Demand-side is usually to make a big purchase electricity in large quantities, i.e., usually low
In stake electrovalence, Demand-side can agree to that transaction is reached.If tripartite agree to transaction reach, it is believed that transaction be have it is feasible
Property.
Above-mentioned steps 3) in, establish the random Spot Price Model of first-order autoregression.The random mould used due to Research on electricity price prediction
Type has normal distribution characteristic, it is possible to obtain the venture worth of unit quantity of electricity transaction are as follows: Varl=αl·σ.In formula, αlFor
The upper percentage point of l segment mark quasi normal distribution.Segmentation electricity price also has normal distribution characteristic, then in Bilateral power market
Its venture worth are as follows:The venture worth is the index of risk assessment, and venture worth is higher, says
Bright transaction risk is bigger, when venture worth is higher than certain value, proposes Risk-warning.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
1, reasonable prediction is made to fluctuation renewable energy power generation, meter and supply and demand bilateral all have stochastic volatility,
Consider whether transaction may reach under conditions of bilateral large user fluctuation, closer to reality.
It 2, is reasonably to analyze with reference to core and sell contract feeding use for possible purchase under this electricity price with stake electrovalence
Tripartite is based on interests and considers a possibility that participating in marketing.
3, contract is sold in the purchase to have signed, and corresponding risk assessment is made based on unit quantity of electricity, is proposed for marketing
Reasonable Risk-warning.
Specific embodiment
In view of the above-mentioned problems, to keep technical solution of the present invention and advantage clearer, below with reference to the embodiment of the present invention,
Technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear and complete description:
1) state demarcation is carried out to research variable, calculates variable states probability vector and the transfer of corresponding probability
Matrix predicts state where subsequent time variable；
2) pricing system is studied, meter and the analysis such as government subsidy and the abandonment amount of wind park enterprise, power grid and big
The cost and profit of user, analysis power purchase transaction feasibility；
3) the random Spot Price Model of first-order autoregression is established, the venture worth of unit quantity of electricity transaction is obtained, according to venture worth
Height proposes Risk-warning.
Above-mentioned steps 1) in, it first has to carry out state demarcation to research variable.Amplitude variation to wind power undulate quantity
It is assessed, determines its threshold value.Wind power time series is carried out first-order difference, obtains the time of wind power output undulate quantity
Sequence { x1,x2,…,xn,xn+1, then the value range of the sequence can be divided into r discrete state set S=by threshold value
{s1,s2,…,sr}。
The then preceding n value based on t moment undulate quantity status switch, calculates the value x of t+1 moment undulate quantityn+1It can fall into
s1,s2,…,srIn which state.If the preceding n data x of undulate quantity sequence1,x2,…,xnIn, there is NiA data fall in si
In, haveThen state siThe frequency of generation are as follows:
Finally, being write the initial probability of the undulate quantity under different conditions as vector, initial probability vector R (t can be obtained
)T.State-transition matrix can finally be obtainedVariable states probability vector is calculated, corresponding probability is calculated
Transfer matrix reflects the medium-term and long-term power producing characteristics of wind-powered electricity generation with this, enables to carry out state where subsequent time variable pre-
It surveys.
Above-mentioned steps 2) in, need to search power plant's online price according to associated documents；Power grid transmission & distribution price；User Catalog
Price；Governmental fund and additional；The price that market is concluded the transaction.The price and stake electrovalence that electricity power enterprise is also talked out
It is compared.On this basis, the cost and profit of enterprise, power grid and large user are analyzed, meter and government subsidy and wind park
Abandonment amount etc., analyze this three have it is profitless obtain, if three has profit that can obtain, transaction just have feasibility.
It is analyzed according to the result that above-mentioned steps obtain, analyzes it more than certain price, supply side user has a mind to
Into market, and the influence factor that can influence transaction is analyzed, and these factors are divided into sensible factor and insensitive factor.
Required analysis includes: analysis power plant profit, and the recycling of meter and government subsidy, T-D tariff and fixed cost is fixed
If valence is higher than cost, that is, there is profit that can obtain, power plant can agree to that transaction is reached；Power grid profit is analyzed, if T-D tariff is higher than power grid
The recycling of construction cost, then power grid can agree to that transaction is reached；Demand-side profit is analyzed, Demand-side is usually to make a big purchase electricity in large quantities,
It is usually less than stake electrovalence, Demand-side can agree to that transaction is reached.If tripartite agrees to that transaction is reached, it is believed that transaction is
With feasibility.
Above-mentioned steps 3) in, since the stochastic model that Research on electricity price prediction uses has normal distribution characteristic, it is possible to obtain
The venture worth of unit quantity of electricity transaction are as follows: Varl=αl·σ.In formula, αlFor the upper percentage point of l segment mark quasi normal distribution.Point
Section electricity price also has normal distribution characteristic, then its venture worth in Bilateral power market are as follows:
The venture worth is the index of risk assessment, and venture worth is higher, illustrates that transaction risk is bigger, when venture worth is higher than certain value
When, propose Risk-warning.
The various embodiments described above are merely to illustrate the present invention, wherein the structure of each component, connection type and manufacture craft etc. are all
It can be varied, all equivalents and improvement carried out based on the technical solution of the present invention should not exclude
Except protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of method of the straight power purchase transaction risk assessment of Generation Side, it is characterised in that: the following steps are included:
1) medium- and long-term forecasting is carried out to wind-powered electricity generation generated output based on Markov；
2) it under conditions of policy, transaction and price are decontroled, is analyzed from marketing angle, using price as core, point
Whether analysis transaction is feasible；
3) venture worth of unit of account electricity transaction.
2. a kind of method of the straight power purchase transaction risk assessment of Generation Side according to claim 1, it is further characterized in that: step
1) in: the wind-powered electricity generation prediction based on Markov includes: to need to carry out state demarcation to research variable, calculates variable states probability
Vector calculates corresponding probability transfer matrix, predicts state where subsequent time variable；Wind power is fluctuated first
The amplitude variation of amount is assessed, and wind power time series is carried out first-order difference, obtains the time of wind power output undulate quantity
Sequence { x1,x2,…,xn,xn+1, the value range of the sequence is divided into r discrete state set S={ s by threshold value1,
s2,…,sr}；Preceding n value based on t moment undulate quantity status switch later, calculates the value x of t+1 moment undulate quantityn+1It can fall into
s1,s2,…,srIn which state；If the preceding n data x of undulate quantity sequence1,x2,…,xnIn, there is NiA data fall in siIn,
HaveThen state siThe frequency of generation are as follows:Write the initial probability of the undulate quantity under different conditions as vector,
Initial probability vector R (t) can be obtainedT；Finally by gained state-transition matrixReflected in wind-powered electricity generation with this
Long-term power producing characteristics.
3. a kind of method of the straight power purchase transaction risk assessment of Generation Side according to claim 1, it is further characterized in that: step
2) in: the analysis for feasibility of trading then has:
Economically, causing electricity price to float up and down due to electricity market relevant policies causes large user and electricity power enterprise
Economic benefit also presents different degrees of fluctuation；Although hair both sides have the wish of transaction in market, the electricity price of fluctuation can
Both sides' economic interests can be made to be on the hazard, transaction is caused to be difficult to carry out；And then need to analyze the cost of enterprise, power grid and large user
And profit, meter and government subsidy and the abandonment amount of wind park etc., analyze this three have it is profitless obtain, if three has profit can
, transaction just has feasibility；
And then pricing system is studied, the rate for incorporation into the power network and electricity consumption electricity price of different power plant are different, and electricity price is common by more innings
Planning determines, needs according to file search price, including T-D tariff and landing price, electricity power enterprise is also talked out
Price be compared with stake electrovalence；Required electricity price includes: power plant's online price；Power grid transmission & distribution price；User Catalog price；
Governmental fund and additional；The price that market is concluded the transaction；Analyzed according to the result that above-mentioned two step obtains, analyze its
It is more than certain price, supply side user have a mind to enter market, and analyze can influence transaction influence factor, and these because
Element is divided into sensible factor and insensitive factor；
Required analytical procedure includes: analysis power plant profit, and the recycling of meter and government subsidy, T-D tariff and fixed cost is fixed
If valence is higher than cost, that is, there is profit that can obtain, power plant can agree to that transaction is reached；Power grid profit is analyzed, if T-D tariff is higher than power grid
The recycling of construction cost, then power grid can agree to that transaction is reached；Demand-side profit is analyzed, Demand-side is usually to make a big purchase electricity in large quantities,
It is usually less than stake electrovalence, Demand-side can agree to that transaction is reached；If tripartite agrees to that transaction is reached, it is believed that transaction is tool
There is feasibility.
4. a kind of method of the straight power purchase transaction risk assessment of Generation Side according to claim 1, it is further characterized in that: step
3) in: assess the risk of transaction:
The characteristics of renewable energy, uncertainty was very big first is that having fluctuation；Second is that there is randomness, either from short
All there is corresponding randomness in the power supply of phase or the supply of long-term electricity；Due to the uncertainty of renewable energy, wave
Dynamic property and randomness, and then Generation Side enterprise is likely difficult to reach to the electricity sales amount of contract defined, then when contract is completed a business transaction just
It is likely that there are a degree of violation of agreement；To risk assessment therein contained by the unit transaction electricity in the form of value-at-risk into
Row；Wherein, since the stochastic model that Research on electricity price prediction uses has normal distribution characteristic, the venture worth of unit quantity of electricity transaction is obtained
Are as follows: Varl=αl·σ；Segmentation electricity price also has normal distribution characteristic, then its venture worth in Bilateral power market are as follows:The venture worth is the index of risk assessment, and venture worth is higher, illustrates that transaction risk is bigger, when
When venture worth is higher than certain value, Risk-warning is proposed.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110097276A (en) * | 2019-04-25 | 2019-08-06 | 湖南大学 | Power grid multiple risks aggregation of variable evaluation method and system |
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| CN106126910A (en) * | 2016-06-22 | 2016-11-16 | 上海垒土资产管理有限公司 | State Transferring Forecasting Methodology based on Markov state metastasis model and system |
| CN107103411A (en) * | 2017-04-08 | 2017-08-29 | 东北电力大学 | Based on the markovian simulation wind power time series generation method of improvement |
| US20180005105A1 (en) * | 2016-06-30 | 2018-01-04 | Commissariat A L'energie Atomique Et Aux Energies Alternatives | Continuous decoding direct neural interface which uses a markov mixture of experts |
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Patent Citations (4)
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104463371A (en) * | 2014-12-16 | 2015-03-25 | 山东大学 | Markov chain modeling and predicating method based on wind power variable quantity |
| CN106126910A (en) * | 2016-06-22 | 2016-11-16 | 上海垒土资产管理有限公司 | State Transferring Forecasting Methodology based on Markov state metastasis model and system |
| US20180005105A1 (en) * | 2016-06-30 | 2018-01-04 | Commissariat A L'energie Atomique Et Aux Energies Alternatives | Continuous decoding direct neural interface which uses a markov mixture of experts |
| CN107103411A (en) * | 2017-04-08 | 2017-08-29 | 东北电力大学 | Based on the markovian simulation wind power time series generation method of improvement |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110097276A (en) * | 2019-04-25 | 2019-08-06 | 湖南大学 | Power grid multiple risks aggregation of variable evaluation method and system |
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Application publication date: 20181221 |