CN109061719B

CN109061719B - Method for predicting earthquake

Info

Publication number: CN109061719B
Application number: CN201810731412.0A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 张崇耀
Original assignee: Individual
Current assignee: Individual
Priority date: 2018-07-05
Filing date: 2018-07-05
Publication date: 2021-06-18
Anticipated expiration: 2038-07-05
Also published as: CN109061719A

Abstract

A method for predicting an earthquake, comprising the steps of: arranging monitoring points on a map at intervals of 100km in a determinant manner, monitoring parameter change of the monitoring points before an earthquake in a fixed time period, drawing a parameter change curve by taking time as an abscissa, comparing each peak and each valley in the curve, and recording peaks and valleys which continuously appear in the curve and are similar in shape; recording a connecting line of two monitoring points with the largest peak or trough area and the smallest area as m, making a parallel line n of m through the other monitoring point, and taking the other three monitoring points as e and f; the straight lines m, n, e and f are intersected to form a parallelogram, and the position of the parallelogram is the epicenter position; the number of wave crests or wave troughs in the curve is marked as N, and N +4 is the magnitude of the epicenter region. The method can predict the epicenter position, the onset time and the magnitude of the earthquake between the first unit time and the last six unit times or between the last nine unit times and the last sixteen unit times when the last wave crest or wave trough is finished.

Description

Method for predicting earthquake

Technical Field

The invention relates to a method for predicting earthquake.

Background

Earthquake is also called earthquake and earth vibration, and is a natural phenomenon that earthquake waves are generated during the vibration caused in the process of quickly releasing energy from the earth crust.

The direct earthquake disaster is a disaster caused by the primary phenomenon of earthquake, such as earthquake fault dislocation and ground vibration caused by earthquake waves. Mainly comprises the following steps: destruction of the ground, destruction of buildings and structures, destruction of natural objects such as mountains (such as landslides and debris flows), tsunamis, and burnings of the ground.

The current earthquake prediction mode can only predict approximate time and azimuth, and cannot accurately predict the earthquake starting time, the epicenter position and the magnitude.

Disclosure of Invention

The technical problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a method capable of predicting the epicenter position, the onset time and the magnitude.

In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a method for predicting earthquake, which comprises the following steps:

(1) the method comprises the following steps of establishing a planar rectangular coordinate system on a map by taking the center of a region to be monitored as an origin, the direction from west to east as an x-axis forward direction and the direction from south to north as a y-axis forward direction, arranging monitoring points in a determinant manner by taking the origin as the center and taking the x-axis direction and the y-axis direction as intervals, monitoring changes of physical quantities before an earthquake by the monitoring points in a fixed time period, and drawing a physical quantity curve by taking time as a horizontal coordinate, wherein the monitored physical quantities comprise: atmospheric pressure, air temperature, ground stress, earth electricity, geomagnetism, altitude, gravity acceleration, water level, water temperature, radon content in water, carbon dioxide content in water, nitrite ion content in water and rainfall;

(2) comparing the shapes of each peak and each trough in the physical quantity curve drawn in the step (1), and recording the peaks and the troughs which continuously appear in each physical quantity curve and are similar in shape;

(3) taking three monitoring points near an area to be detected, comparing the monitoring results of the monitoring points on the same physical quantity in the same time period, marking the connection line of the two monitoring points with the maximum peak or trough area and the minimum area on a map as a straight line m, and then marking the parallel line passing through the other monitoring point as the straight line m as a straight line n;

(4) taking the other three monitoring points near the area to be detected, recording the connecting line of the two monitoring points with the maximum peak or trough area and the minimum area on the map as a straight line e for the monitoring results of different physical quantities in the same time period in the step (3), and then recording the parallel line passing through the other monitoring point to be the straight line e as a straight line f;

(5) the straight lines m, n, e and f are intersected to form a parallelogram, and the position of the parallelogram is the epicenter position;

(6) recording the physical quantities monitored by the monitoring points in the step (3) and the step (4), recording the number of wave crests or wave troughs in a physical quantity curve as N, wherein N +4 is the magnitude of the earthquake in the earthquake area;

(7) the origin time interval: and the unit time is between the unit time before the last peak or trough is finished and six unit times later, or between the nine unit times after the last peak or trough is finished and sixteen unit times later, wherein the unit time is the division value of the abscissa of the corresponding physical quantity curve.

Preferably, the value range of N is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 6, wherein N is a positive integer.

For simplicity of explanation, the method for predicting earthquake according to the present invention is simply referred to as the present method below.

The method has the advantages that: the method can accurately predict the epicenter position, the onset time and the magnitude of the earthquake without expensive instruments, strives for time for people to evacuate from the earthquake area and rescue substances, has simple prediction mode and no need of large amount of calculation, can adopt an unattended mode at each monitoring point, has low labor cost and is suitable for popularization and use.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a line graph of acceleration of gravity at monitoring point A, B, C over time.

Fig. 2 is a line graph of the water level at monitoring point D, E, F over time.

FIG. 3 is a epicenter position indication diagram.

Fig. 4 shows a grid pattern for recording peaks and valleys of the physical quantity curve.

FIG. 5 is a pressure day-to-day line from 2 months to 3 months from a Paschen stage earthquake in 1966.

Detailed Description

Referring to fig. 1-3, a method of predicting an earthquake, comprising the steps of:

(1) the method comprises the following steps of establishing a planar rectangular coordinate system on a map by taking the center of a region to be monitored as an origin, the direction from west to east as an x-axis forward direction and the direction from south to north as a y-axis forward direction, arranging monitoring points in a determinant manner by taking the origin as the center and taking the x-axis direction and the y-axis direction as intervals, monitoring changes of physical quantities before an earthquake by taking one day as a time period and drawing a physical quantity change curve by taking time as a horizontal coordinate, wherein the monitored physical quantities comprise: atmospheric pressure, air temperature, ground stress, earth electricity, geomagnetism, altitude, gravity acceleration, water level, water temperature, radon content in water, carbon dioxide content in water, nitrite ion content in water and rainfall;

(2) comparing the shapes of each peak and each trough in the curve drawn in the step (1), and recording the peaks and the troughs which continuously appear in each curve and are similar in shape;

(3) taking three monitoring points near the area to be detected, respectively recording as a monitoring point A, a monitoring point B and a monitoring point C, and comparing the gravity acceleration (the unit of ordinate is m/s) of each monitoring point to the gravity acceleration in the same time period^-2) According to the monitoring result, a connecting line of two monitoring points with the maximum peak area (monitoring point A) and the minimum peak area (monitoring point B) on a map is marked as a straight line m, and then a parallel line passing through the other monitoring point (monitoring point C) and making the straight line m is marked as a straight line n;

(4) taking the other three monitoring points near the area to be detected, respectively recording the other three monitoring points as a monitoring point D, a monitoring point E and a monitoring point F, recording the connection line of the two monitoring points with the maximum peak area (the monitoring point D) and the minimum peak area (the monitoring point E) on the map as a straight line E for the monitoring result of the water level (the unit of the vertical coordinate is m) in the same time period in the step (3), and then, taking the parallel line of the straight line E passing through the other monitoring point (the monitoring point F) as a straight line F;

(6) recording the number of wave crests in the physical quantity curve monitored by the monitoring points in the step (3) and the step (4), wherein the number of the wave crests is 4, and the seismic level of the obtained epicenter area is 8;

(7) the origin time interval: the time between one day before the end of the last wave crest or wave trough and six days after the end of the last wave crest or wave trough, or the time between nine days after the end of the last wave crest or wave trough and sixteen days after the end of the last wave crest or wave trough.

Specifically, the shape of the continuous peaks or valleys in the recorded physical quantity curve may be recorded using the M-table grid in fig. 4.

For the first peak or trough, in the region of the number a 1; recording in the region marked with the number b1 on the upper side of the first time if the position of the second-order peak or trough is higher than the first time, in the region marked with the number b1 on the upper side of the first time if the second-order peak or trough is substantially equal to the first time, and in the region marked with the number b1 on the lower side of the first time if the second-order peak or trough is lower than the first time; the region labeled with the number c1 on the upper side of the second time if the third-order peak or trough position is higher than the second time, the region labeled with the number c1 on the upper side of the second time if the third-order peak or trough position is substantially equal to the second time, the region labeled with the number c1 on the lower side of the second time if the third-order peak or trough position is lower than the second time, and so on.

Example verification:

FIG. 5 shows the average line of the gas pressure day from 2 months to 3 months of the Paschen platform earthquake in 1966, three peaks are found, and the ending time of the last peak is 3 months and 5 days, so according to the calculation of the method, the earthquake grade is 7, the earthquake starting time is 3 months and 4 days to 3 months and 11 days or 3 months and 14 days to 3 months and 21 days, the actual earthquake starting time is 3 months and 8 days, and the earthquake grade is 6.8 grades, which is consistent with the prediction.

Claims

1. A method of predicting an earthquake, comprising the steps of:

2. A method of predicting an earthquake as recited in claim 1, wherein: the value range of N is more than or equal to 1 and less than or equal to 6, wherein N is a positive integer.