CN109038556B - Thermal power generating unit flexibility transformation capacity calculation method and system - Google Patents

Thermal power generating unit flexibility transformation capacity calculation method and system Download PDF

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CN109038556B
CN109038556B CN201810863206.5A CN201810863206A CN109038556B CN 109038556 B CN109038556 B CN 109038556B CN 201810863206 A CN201810863206 A CN 201810863206A CN 109038556 B CN109038556 B CN 109038556B
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capacity
power
renewable energy
flexibility
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CN109038556A (en
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礼晓飞
黄越辉
罗桓桓
王跃峰
刘纯
董恩伏
孙春盼
葛维春
高凯
周桂平
王晶
潘霄峰
史昭娣
窦金利
张楠
高云峰
许晓艳
许彦平
孙明一
崔岱
刘刚
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China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co Ltd
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co Ltd
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China Electric Power Research Institute Co Ltd CEPRI
State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co Ltd
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/04—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for connecting networks of the same frequency but supplied from different sources
    • H02J3/06—Controlling transfer of power between connected networks; Controlling sharing of load between connected networks
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
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    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
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Abstract

The invention relates to a method and a system for calculating flexible modification capacity of a thermal power generating unit, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of setting a system flexibility adjusting capacity range based on a target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model, determining a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to the system flexibility adjusting capacity range, determining the whole-network flexibility demand capacity according to the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range, and further determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the whole-network flexibility demand capacity.

Description

Thermal power generating unit flexibility transformation capacity calculation method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of renewable energy power station coordination control, in particular to a thermal power generating unit flexibility modification capacity calculation method and system.
Background
Along with the increasing of installed capacity of renewable energy (mainly comprising wind power and solar power generation), the characteristics of randomness, volatility, intermittence and the like of the wind power and the solar power generation are more and more obviously embodied, when the flexibility of a power system is insufficient, the wind abandon and the light abandon are caused, the flexibility of the power system is mainly embodied as the flexibility adjusting capacity of a thermal power unit, statistical results show that the wind abandon and the light abandon of a thermal power common area mainly occur in a winter heating period, the insufficient flexibility of the thermal power is a main reason of the wind abandon and the light abandon, the flexibility of the power system is limited by the operation characteristics of the existing straight condensing (conventional thermal power)/heat supply unit and an independent electric and heat dispatching mode, and the main reason is that the renewable energy consumption of the thermal power common area is difficult; therefore, promoting the flexible modification of the conventional thermal power and heat supply unit becomes a key measure for promoting the consumption of renewable energy.
The conventional thermal power generating unit flexibility modification related research mainly focuses on modification effects of the thermal power generating unit and related benefits obtained by participating in power auxiliary service markets after the thermal power generating unit is modified, and the problems of insufficient modification scale or excessive modification capacity exist.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method and a system for calculating flexible modification capacity of a thermal power generating unit, and aims to provide the following steps: the method comprises the steps of determining a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to a system flexibility adjustment capacity range set based on a target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model, determining a whole-network flexibility demand capacity according to the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range, and further determining a thermal power unit flexibility modification capacity according to the whole-network flexibility demand capacity, so that the problems that in the existing thermal power unit flexibility modification technology, the modification scale is insufficient or excessive are solved, the coordination optimization of the modification scale and the renewable energy installed scale is effectively realized, and the flexibility of a power system is improved.
The purpose of the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
in a method for calculating the flexible reforming capacity of a thermal power generating unit, the improvement comprising:
setting a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity;
determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the power abandonment rate range of the renewable energy source of the target year;
and determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network.
Preferably, the setting of the target annual renewable energy curtailment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity comprises:
setting a system flexibility adjusting capacity range based on a target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model;
and determining a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to the system flexibility adjusting capacity range.
Further, the setting of the system flexibility based on the theoretical power model of renewable energy power generation at the target year adjusts the capacity range, and includes:
obtaining the maximum value P in the theoretical power generation of the renewable energy sources at each moment of the target year by using the theoretical power generation model of the renewable energy sources at the target year ca_max Setting system flexibility to adjust capacity P r The range of (A) is as follows: p r ∈(0,P ca_max ]；
The theoretical power model of the renewable energy power generation in the target year is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000021
in the above formula, P ca (t) is the theoretical power of power generation at the time t of the target annual renewable energy source,
Figure BDA0001750242060000022
Figure BDA0001750242060000023
for the normalized power output of the wind power plant at time t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000024
for the normalized power generation output of the solar power station at the moment t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000025
for the generated power at the moment t of the wind power plant,
Figure BDA0001750242060000029
waste electric power at time t for a wind power plant, C w (t) is the installed capacity of wind power at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000026
the generated power at the moment t of the solar power station,
Figure BDA0001750242060000027
electric power waste at time t of the solar power plant, C pv (t) the installed capacity of the solar power generation at the time t of the whole network, and i is the number of sampling times of the whole year; t ∈ (0, j), j being the number of target annual sampling instants, C' w (t) is wind power planning installed capacity at target year time t, C' pv (t) planning the installed capacity for solar power generation at time t of the target year.
Further, the adjusting the capacity range according to the system flexibility to determine the target annual renewable energy power rate abandonment range comprises:
adjusting the capacity range and the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station according to the flexibility of the system to obtain the range of the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station;
acquiring the range of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate by using the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model, thereby determining a relation curve of the system flexibility regulation capacity and the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate; wherein the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000028
the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000031
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0001750242060000032
electric power abandon at time t of renewable energy power station of target year R n Adjusting the target annual renewable energy power curtailment rate, P, corresponding to the capacity for each system flexibility r Adjusting capacity, P, for system flexibility r ∈(0,P ca_max ]J is the number of target annual sampling instants,
Figure BDA0001750242060000033
the theoretical power for generating electricity of the target year.
Preferably, the determining the total network flexibility demand capacity according to the target annual renewable energy power curtailment rate range includes:
selecting the intersection of the renewable energy power abandonment rate range of the target year and the allowable range of the renewable energy power abandonment rate as the available power abandonment rate of the whole network;
and setting the current power abandonment rate according to the available power abandonment rate of the whole network, and determining the system flexibility adjustment capacity corresponding to the current power abandonment rate according to the relation curve to be used as the flexibility required capacity of the whole network.
Preferably, the determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the flexibility demand capacity of the whole grid includes:
determining flexibility modification capacity C of thermal power generating unit at t moment according to formula f (t)：
Figure BDA0001750242060000034
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001750242060000035
Figure BDA0001750242060000036
capacity adjustment for System flexibility at time t
Figure BDA0001750242060000037
F t Is the power generation load at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000038
the minimum technical output of the whole power generation unit at the time t, I is the optimal starting capacity of the power generation unit,
Figure BDA0001750242060000039
is the minimum technical output at the moment t of the s th thermal power generating unit,
Figure BDA00017502420600000310
capacity is adjusted for system flexibility at the current time t,
Figure BDA00017502420600000311
capacity is required for full network flexibility;
and selecting the maximum value in the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit at each moment as the flexibility modification capacity of the target annual fire.
Further, the process for acquiring the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit includes:
acquiring the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit meeting the starting capacity constraint condition of the thermal power generating unit;
comparing the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit with the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power which is determined by an energy monitoring department and ensures heating, and taking the larger value of the starting capacity and the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit as the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
the starting capacity constraint conditions of the thermal power generating unit are as follows:
P t,max +P h,max +P o,max +P w,c +P pv,c ≥max{P l +P c }·(1+β u )
min(P t,max +P h,max +P o,max )
P t,min +P h,min +P o,min ≤min{P l +P c }·(1+β d )
in the above-mentioned formula, the compound has the following structure,
Figure BDA0001750242060000041
P w,c predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target annual wind power generation pv,c Predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target year of solar power generation t,max For starting-up capacity of thermal power, P h,max For the starting-up capacity of water and electricity, P o,max Starting-up capacity of other power supplies, P l For delivering power to the electrical load, P c For the purpose of sending out power for the tie line,
Figure BDA0001750242060000042
the result of the prediction of the wind power generation output,
Figure BDA0001750242060000043
for the solar power generation output prediction result, E w Prediction error for wind power generation output, E pv Prediction error for solar power output, C w Installed capacity for wind power generation, C pv Installed capacity for solar power generation; p is t,min For minimum technical contribution of thermal power, P h,min Minimum technical power of water and electricity, P o,min Minimum technical contribution, beta, to other power sources d The lower rotation standby rate.
In a thermal power generating unit flexibility modification capacity calculation system, the improvement comprising:
the setting module is used for setting a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by utilizing the system flexibility adjusting capacity;
the first determining module is used for determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the target annual renewable energy power rate abandoning range;
and the second determining module is used for determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network.
Preferably, the adjusting the capacity setting target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility includes:
the setting unit is used for setting the system flexibility adjusting capacity range based on the target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model;
and the first determining unit is used for determining a target annual renewable energy power rate range according to the system flexibility adjusting capacity range.
Further, the setting unit is configured to:
obtaining the maximum value P in the generating theoretical power of the renewable energy at each moment of the target year by using the generating theoretical power model of the renewable energy of the target year ca_max Setting System flexibility to adjust Capacity P r The range of (A) is as follows: p r ∈(0,P ca_max ]；
The theoretical power model of the renewable energy power generation in the target year is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000044
in the above formula, P ca (t) is the theoretical power of power generation at the time t of the target annual renewable energy source,
Figure BDA0001750242060000045
Figure BDA0001750242060000046
for the normalized power output of the wind power plant at time t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000047
for the normalized power generation output of the solar power station at the moment t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000048
for the generated power at the time t of the wind power plant,
Figure BDA0001750242060000049
waste electric power at time t for a wind power plant, C w (t) is the installed capacity of wind power at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000051
the generated power at the moment t of the solar power station,
Figure BDA0001750242060000052
electric power waste at time t of the solar power plant, C pv (t) the installed capacity of the solar power generation at the time t of the whole network, and i is the number of sampling times of the whole year; t belongs to (0, j), j is the number of sampling time points of the target year, C' w (t) is wind power planning installed capacity at target year time t, C' pv (t) planning the installed capacity for solar power generation at time t of the target year.
Further, the first determining unit is configured to:
adjusting the capacity range and the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station according to the system flexibility to obtain the range of the electric power abandonment of the target annual renewable energy power station;
acquiring the range of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate by using the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model, thereby determining a relation curve of the system flexibility regulation capacity and the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate; wherein the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000053
the model of the power abandonment rate of the renewable energy source in the target year comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001750242060000054
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0001750242060000055
electric power abandonment at time t of target annual renewable energy power station, R n Adjusting the target annual renewable energy power curtailment rate, P, corresponding to the capacity for each system flexibility r Adjusting capacity, P, for system flexibility r ∈(0,P ca_max ]J is the number of target annual sampling instants,
Figure BDA0001750242060000056
the theoretical power for generating electricity of the target year.
Preferably, the first determining module is configured to:
selecting the intersection of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range and the renewable energy power abandonment rate allowable range as the total network available power abandonment rate;
and setting the current power abandonment rate according to the available power abandonment rate of the whole network, and determining the system flexibility adjustment capacity corresponding to the current power abandonment rate according to the relation curve to be used as the flexibility required capacity of the whole network.
Preferably, the second determining module is configured to:
determining flexibility modification capacity C of thermal power generating unit at t moment according to formula f (t)：
Figure BDA0001750242060000057
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001750242060000061
Figure BDA0001750242060000062
capacity adjustment for System flexibility at time t
Figure BDA0001750242060000063
F t Is the power generation load at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000064
the minimum technical output of the whole power generation unit at the moment t, I is the optimal starting capacity of the power generation unit,
Figure BDA0001750242060000065
the minimum technical output at the moment t of the s-th thermal power generating unit,
Figure BDA0001750242060000066
capacity is adjusted for system flexibility at the current time t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000067
capacity is required for full network flexibility;
and selecting the maximum value in the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit at each moment as the flexibility modification capacity of the target annual fire electric generating unit.
Further, the process for acquiring the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit includes:
acquiring the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit meeting the starting capacity constraint condition of the thermal power generating unit;
comparing the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit with the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power which is checked by an energy monitoring department and ensures heating, and taking the larger value of the starting capacity and the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power as the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
the starting capacity constraint conditions of the thermal power generating unit are as follows:
P t,max +P h,max +P o,max +P w,c +P pv,c ≥max{P l +P c }·(1+β u )
min(P t,max +P h,max +P o,max )
P t,min +P h,min +P o,min ≤min{P l +P c }·(1+β d )
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0001750242060000068
P w,c predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target annual wind power generation pv,c Predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target annual solar power generation t,max For starting-up capacity, P, of thermal power h,max For the starting-up capacity of hydropower, P o,max Starting-up capacity of other power supplies, P l For delivering power to the electrical load, P c For the purpose of sending out power for the tie line,
Figure BDA0001750242060000069
the result of the prediction of the wind power generation output,
Figure BDA00017502420600000610
for the solar power generation output prediction result, E w Prediction error for wind power generation output, E pv Prediction error for solar power generation output, C w Installed capacity for wind power generation, C pv Installed capacity for solar power generation; p t,min For minimum technical contribution of thermal power, P h,min For minimum technical contribution of hydropower, P o,min Minimum technical contribution, beta, to other power sources d The lower rotation utilization rate.
Compared with the closest prior art, the invention also has the following beneficial effects:
by adopting the technical scheme, the flexibility adjustment capacity of the system is utilized to set the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range, the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate is determined according to the normalized annual historical system flexibility data, and a foundation is laid for the accurate calculation of the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit; determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the power abandonment rate range of the renewable energy source of the target year, and calculating the power abandonment conditions under different flexibility conditions to obtain the flexibility total transformation capacity demand under the allowable power abandonment rate, thereby ensuring the reliability of the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network of the target year; the method comprises the steps that the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit is determined according to the flexibility required capacity of the whole network, so that the problem of insufficient scale or excessive modification capacity in the prior art is solved, and the purpose of improving the flexibility of a power system is achieved; by adopting the calculation method, the quantitative relation between the flexibility requirement of the power system and the installed scale of the renewable energy source is determined, the overall coordination of the thermal power unit transformation scale and the wind and light abandoning problem is realized, the co-scheduling of the transformation scale and the installed scale of the renewable energy source can be effectively promoted, the overall scale of the thermal power unit transformation is reduced as far as possible while the renewable energy source consumption is guaranteed, the economical efficiency of the thermal power unit flexibility transformation is higher, and the method has better operability in actual execution.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for calculating a flexible reconstruction capacity of a thermal power generating unit according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart of a method for calculating a flexible modification capacity of a thermal power generating unit according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph of renewable energy power curtailment versus system flexibility regulation capacity according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a thermal power generating unit flexibility modification capacity calculation system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of embodiments of the invention refers to the accompanying drawings.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
According to the technical scheme, output characteristics of full-grid wind power and solar power generation are respectively calculated according to annual theoretical power data of a single wind power plant and a single solar power station, the annual output of the target annual wind power and solar power generation is obtained by combining the installed scales of the target annual wind power and solar power generation, and the flexible total transformation capacity requirement under the allowable electricity loss rate is obtained by calculating the electricity loss conditions under different flexible conditions; then, calculating to obtain the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit all the year round according to constraint conditions such as target annual load, a connecting line, spare capacity and the starting and stopping period of the thermal power generating unit, and further calculating to obtain the minimum technical output of the thermal power generating unit of the whole network; the method takes the time sequence of renewable energy flexibility requirements into consideration, is suitable for wind power and solar power generation output with uncertain output, puts forward flexibility modification requirements aiming at the time of insufficient system flexibility in actual operation, and simultaneously takes the minimum starting capacity of thermal power for ensuring heating, which is approved by an energy supervision department, into consideration in the calculation process, thereby having operability in actual execution.
The invention provides a method and a system for calculating flexible modification capacity of a thermal power generating unit, which are explained below.
Fig. 1 shows a flowchart of a method for calculating a flexible reconstruction capacity of a thermal power generating unit in an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 1, the method may include:
101. setting a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity;
102. determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the power abandonment rate range of the renewable energy source of the target year;
103. and determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the flexibility required capacity of the whole network.
When the method calculates the total capacity of the thermal power generating unit for flexible modification, considering the power output characteristic and the installed scale of the available renewable energy, fig. 2 shows a flow detail chart of the method for calculating the capacity of the thermal power generating unit for flexible modification according to the embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 2, the setting of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity may include:
setting a system flexibility adjusting capacity range based on a target year renewable energy power generation theoretical power model;
and determining a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to the system flexibility adjusting capacity range.
Counting the annual moment-by-moment generated power and abandoned power historical data of each wind power plant and each solar power station in the whole network, adding the moment-by-moment generated power and abandoned power of each wind power plant to obtain theoretical power time sequence data of the wind power in the whole network,
and adding the moment-by-moment generated power and the abandoned power of each solar power station to obtain the full-network solar theoretical power time sequence data. And respectively dividing the total-network wind power and solar theoretical power time sequence data by the accumulated values of the total-network wind power installed capacity and the solar power generation installed capacity at corresponding moments to respectively obtain normalized wind power and solar power generation output at the time t, calculating the normalized output of the whole year hour by hour, and obtaining the annual power generation output characteristic curve of the wind power and the solar power generation by the curve formed by connecting the normalized output of renewable energy sources of the hour by hour. Planning installed capacity according to the target annual wind power and solar power generation, and multiplying the planned installed capacity by a wind power and solar power generation output characteristic curve respectively to obtain target annual whole-network wind power and solar power generation theoretical power time sequence data; and adding the wind power generation theoretical power and the solar power generation theoretical power by time to obtain renewable energy power generation theoretical power time sequence data.
Searching renewable energy power generation theoretical power time sequence data to obtain target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power maximum value P ca_max Here, the number of target annual sampling instants may be set to 8760;
the setting of the system flexibility and capacity adjustment range based on the target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model may include:
obtaining the maximum value P in the theoretical power generation of the renewable energy sources at each moment of the target year by using the theoretical power generation model of the renewable energy sources at the target year ca_max Setting System flexibility to adjust Capacity P r The range of (A) is as follows: p r ∈(0,P ca_max ]；
The power generation theoretical power model of the renewable energy source of the target year is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000081
in the above formula, P ca (t) is the theoretical power generated at t time of the renewable energy source of the target year,
Figure BDA0001750242060000082
Figure BDA0001750242060000083
for the normalized power output of the wind power plant at time t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000091
for the normalized power generation output of the solar power station at the moment t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000092
for the generated power at the moment t of the wind power plant,
Figure BDA0001750242060000093
waste electric power at time t for a wind power plant, C w (t) is the installed capacity of wind power at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000094
the generated power at the moment t of the solar power station,
Figure BDA0001750242060000095
the waste electric power at the time t of the solar power station, C pv (t) is the installed capacity of solar power generation at the time t of the whole network, and i is the number of sampling times of the whole year; t belongs to (0, j), j is the number of sampling time points of the target year, C' w (t) is wind power planning installed capacity at target year time t, C' pv (t) planning the installed capacity for solar power generation at time t of the target year.
Specifically, the determining the target annual renewable energy power curtailment rate range according to the system flexibility adjustment capacity range may include:
adjusting the capacity range and the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station according to the flexibility of the system to obtain the range of the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station;
acquiring the range of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate by using the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model, thereby determining a relation curve of the system flexibility regulation capacity and the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate; wherein the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000096
the model of the power abandonment rate of the renewable energy source in the target year comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001750242060000097
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0001750242060000098
electric power abandon at time t of renewable energy power station of target year R n Adjusting the target annual renewable energy power curtailment rate, P, corresponding to the capacity for each system flexibility r Adjusting capacity, P, for system flexibility r ∈(0,P ca_max ]J is the number of target annual sampling instants,
Figure BDA0001750242060000099
the theoretical power for generating electricity of the target year.
Adjusting system flexibility to capacity P r From 0 to P ca_max The linear growth between the capacity adjustment and the power abandonment rate of renewable energy can be obtained by respectively calculating the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rates corresponding to different system flexibility adjustment capacities, and adjusting the capacity value and the corresponding renewable energy power abandonment rate value according to the system flexibility at each momentA relation graph, as shown in fig. 3, the abscissa is the system flexibility adjustment capacity, and the ordinate is the renewable energy power curtailment rate; the allowable power abandonment rate of the renewable energy source according to the vertical axis can adjust the capacity requirement corresponding to the flexibility of the system which is checked by the horizontal axis.
The specific operations may include: comparing the theoretical power of renewable energy power generation with the system flexibility regulation capacity moment by moment, wherein the theoretical power of renewable energy power generation is less than or equal to the system flexibility regulation capacity, and renewable energy can be completely consumed; the renewable energy power generation theoretical power is larger than the system flexibility adjustment capacity, the discarded electric power is the difference value between the renewable energy power generation theoretical power and the system flexibility adjustment capacity, the annual discarded electric power of the renewable energy is obtained by accumulating the discarded electric power time by time all year around, and the ratio of the annual discarded electric power of the renewable energy to the power generation theoretical power is the renewable energy discarded rate; the determining of the capacity required by flexibility of the whole network according to the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range may include:
selecting the intersection of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range and the renewable energy power abandonment rate allowable range as the total network available power abandonment rate;
setting the current power abandoning rate according to the available power abandoning rate of the whole network, and setting the power abandoning rate in an actual working condition, wherein a small value is generally measured as much as possible, for example 5%; determining system flexibility adjusting capacity corresponding to the current power abandon rate according to the relation curve, and taking the system flexibility adjusting capacity as the whole network flexibility required capacity; the allowable range of the power curtailment rate of the renewable energy is usually 0-10%;
determining the flexibility transformation capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network can include:
calculating to obtain the minimum technical output of the thermal power generating unit moment by moment according to the calculated optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit considering heat supply, wherein the difference value between the power generation load and the minimum technical output of the thermal power generating unit is the current flexibility adjusting capacity of the system, the current flexibility adjusting capacity of the system and the current flexibility adjusting capacity of the whole network are compared moment by moment, the difference value between the system flexibility adjusting capacity of the whole network and the current flexibility adjusting capacity of the system is the flexibility modification capacity needing to be newly increased moment by moment, and the maximum value of the newly increased flexibility modification capacity time sequence data all the year is the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the target year;
thermal power generating unit flexibility modification capacity C at time t is determined according to the following formula f (t)：
Figure BDA0001750242060000101
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001750242060000102
Figure BDA0001750242060000103
capacity adjustment for System flexibility at time t
Figure BDA0001750242060000104
F t Is the power generation load at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000105
the minimum technical output of the whole power generation unit at the moment t, I is the optimal starting capacity of the power generation unit,
Figure BDA0001750242060000106
the minimum technical output at the moment t of the s-th thermal power generating unit,
Figure BDA0001750242060000107
capacity is adjusted for system flexibility at the current time t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000108
capacity is required for full network flexibility;
and selecting the maximum value in the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit at each moment as the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit of the target year.
The process for acquiring the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit may include:
acquiring the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit meeting the starting capacity constraint condition of the thermal power generating unit;
the method specifically comprises the following steps: and calculating a unit starting mode considering renewable energy power generation, link line outgoing, standby capacity and various power output according to the target annual load prediction maximum value. The starting mode of the unit is to meet the condition that the starting capacity of thermal power, hydropower, other power supplies and the credible output of renewable energy are always increased to be equal to the total sum of the maximum power generation load and the upper rotating standby capacity in a starting period, wherein the power generation load is the sum of the power consumption load and the outgoing of a connecting line, and the starting mode of the unit is optimized to have the minimum starting capacity of other power supplies except renewable energy.
Checking whether the starting mode of the unit meets the requirement of minimum load output of the whole network, namely the total sum of minimum technical output of thermal power, hydropower and other power supplies is less than or equal to the total sum of minimum load and lower rotating reserve capacity, if so, executing subsequent steps, and if not, adjusting the starting mode of the unit;
comparing the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit with the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power which is checked by an energy monitoring department and ensures heating, and taking the larger value of the starting capacity and the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power as the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit; and comparing the calculated starting capacity of the thermal power unit with the thermal power minimum starting capacity for ensuring heating determined by an energy supervision department, and replacing the calculated starting capacity of the thermal power unit with the thermal power minimum starting capacity for ensuring heating if the calculated starting capacity of the thermal power unit is smaller than the thermal power minimum starting capacity for ensuring heating to form the starting capacity of the thermal power unit considering heating.
The starting capacity constraint conditions of the thermal power generating unit are as follows:
P t,max +P h,max +P o,max +P w,c +P pv,c ≥max{P l +P c }·(1+β u )
min(P t,max +P h,max +P o,max )
P t,min +P h,min +P o,min ≤min{P l +P c }·(1+β d )
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0001750242060000111
P w,c forecasting a credible capacity of capacity for wind power generation of a target year, P pv,c Predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target annual solar power generation t,max For starting-up capacity of thermal power, P h,max For the starting-up capacity of water and electricity, P o,max Starting-up capacity of other power supplies, P l For delivering power to the electrical load, P c For the purpose of sending out power for the tie line,
Figure BDA0001750242060000112
the result of the prediction of the wind power generation output is obtained,
Figure BDA0001750242060000113
for the solar power generation output prediction result, E w For wind power generation output prediction error, E pv Prediction error for solar power generation output, C w Installed capacity for wind power generation, C pv Installed capacity for solar power generation; p t,min For minimum technical contribution of thermal power, P h,min For minimum technical contribution of hydropower, P o,min Minimum technical contribution, beta, to other power sources d The lower rotation utilization rate.
Fig. 4 shows a schematic structural diagram of a system for calculating a flexible reconstruction capacity of a thermal power generating unit according to an embodiment of the present invention, and as shown in fig. 4, the system may include:
the setting module is used for setting a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by utilizing the system flexibility adjusting capacity;
the first determining module is used for determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range;
and the second determining module is used for determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the whole network flexibility demand capacity.
The setting of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity may include:
the setting unit is used for setting the system flexibility adjusting capacity range based on the target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model;
and the first determining unit is used for determining a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to the system flexibility adjusting capacity range.
Wherein the setting unit is configured to: obtaining the maximum value P in the generating theoretical power of the renewable energy at each moment of the target year by using the generating theoretical power model of the renewable energy of the target year ca_max Setting system flexibility to adjust capacity P r The range of (A) is as follows: p r ∈(0,P ca_max ]；
The theoretical power model of the renewable energy power generation in the target year is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000121
in the above formula, P ca (t) is the theoretical power of power generation at the time t of the target annual renewable energy source,
Figure BDA0001750242060000122
Figure BDA0001750242060000123
for the normalized power output of the wind power plant at time t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000124
for the normalized power generation output of the solar power station at the moment t,
Figure BDA0001750242060000125
for the generated power at the moment t of the wind power plant,
Figure BDA0001750242060000126
waste electric power at time t for a wind power plant, C w (t) is the installed capacity of wind power at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000127
the generated power at the moment t of the solar power station,
Figure BDA0001750242060000128
electric power waste at time t of the solar power plant, C pv (t) is the installed capacity of solar power generation at the time t of the whole network, and i is the number of sampling times of the whole year; t ∈ (0, j), j being the number of target annual sampling instants, C' w (t) is wind power planning installed capacity at target year time t, C' pv (t) planning the installed capacity for solar power generation at time t of the target year.
Specifically, the first determining unit is configured to:
adjusting the capacity range and the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station according to the system flexibility to obtain the range of the electric power abandonment of the target annual renewable energy power station;
acquiring the range of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate by using the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model, thereby determining a relation curve of the system flexibility regulation capacity and the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate; wherein the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station is as follows:
Figure BDA0001750242060000129
the model of the power abandonment rate of the renewable energy source in the target year comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001750242060000131
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure BDA0001750242060000132
electric power abandonment at time t of target annual renewable energy power station, R n Adjusting the target annual renewable energy power curtailment rate, P, corresponding to the capacity for each system flexibility r Adjusting capacity, P, for system flexibility r ∈(0,P ca_max ]J is the number of target annual sampling instants,
Figure BDA0001750242060000133
the theoretical power for generating electricity of the target year.
The first determining module is configured to: selecting the intersection of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range and the renewable energy power abandonment rate allowable range as the total network available power abandonment rate;
and setting the current power abandoning rate according to the available power abandoning rate of the whole network, and determining the system flexibility adjusting capacity corresponding to the current power abandoning rate according to the relation curve to be used as the flexibility required capacity of the whole network.
The second determining module is configured to: determining flexibility modification capacity C of thermal power generating unit at t moment according to formula f (t)：
Figure BDA0001750242060000134
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001750242060000135
Figure BDA0001750242060000136
capacity adjustment for System flexibility at time t
Figure BDA0001750242060000137
F t Is the power generation load at the time t of the whole network,
Figure BDA0001750242060000138
the minimum technical output of the whole power generation unit at the time t, I is the optimal starting capacity of the power generation unit,
Figure BDA0001750242060000139
the minimum technical output at the moment t of the s-th thermal power generating unit,
Figure BDA00017502420600001310
the capacity is adjusted for system flexibility at time t,
Figure BDA00017502420600001311
capacity is required for flexibility of the whole network;
selecting the maximum value in the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit at each moment as the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit in a target year;
the total capacity of thermal power transformation can be used for guiding the number of the thermal power generating units to be transformed, if the transformation number is insufficient, the consumption of renewable energy sources can not be effectively promoted, and if the transformation number is too large, economic waste can be caused.
The obtaining process of the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit may include:
acquiring the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit meeting the starting capacity constraint condition of the thermal power generating unit;
comparing the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit with the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power which is determined by an energy monitoring department and ensures heating, and taking the larger value of the starting capacity and the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit as the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
the starting capacity constraint conditions of the thermal power generating unit are as follows:
P t,max +P h,max +P o,max +P w,c +P pv,c ≥max{P l +P c }·(1+β u )
min(P t,max +P h,max +P o,max )
P t,min +P h,min +P o,min ≤min{P l +P c }·(1+β d )
in the above-mentioned formula, the compound has the following structure,
Figure BDA0001750242060000141
P w,c predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target annual wind power generation pv,c Predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target annual solar power generation t,max For starting-up capacity of thermal power, P h,max For the starting-up capacity of water and electricity, P o,max Starting-up capacity of other power supplies, P l For delivering power to the electrical load, P c For the purpose of sending out power for the tie line,
Figure BDA0001750242060000142
the result of the prediction of the wind power generation output is obtained,
Figure BDA0001750242060000143
for the prediction of the solar power output, E w For wind power generation output prediction error, E pv Prediction error for solar power generation output, C w Installed capacity for wind power generation, C pv Installed capacity for solar power generation; p t,min Minimum technical contribution, P, to thermal power h,min Minimum technical power of water and electricity, P o,min Minimum technical contribution, beta, to other power sources d The lower rotation utilization rate.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and so forth) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.

Claims (10)

1. A thermal power generating unit flexibility modification capacity calculation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
setting a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity;
determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the power abandonment rate range of the renewable energy source of the target year;
determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network;
the method for setting the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity comprises the following steps:
setting a system flexibility adjusting capacity range based on a target year renewable energy power generation theoretical power model;
determining a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to the system flexibility adjustment capacity range;
the method for setting the system flexibility and adjusting the capacity range based on the target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model comprises the following steps:
obtaining the maximum value P in the theoretical power generation of the renewable energy sources at each moment of the target year by using the theoretical power generation model of the renewable energy sources at the target year ca_max Setting system flexibility to adjust capacity P r The range of (A) is as follows: p r ∈(0,P ca_max ]；
The method for determining the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to the system flexibility adjustment capacity range comprises the following steps:
adjusting the capacity range and the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station according to the system flexibility to obtain the range of the electric power abandonment of the target annual renewable energy power station;
acquiring the range of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate by using the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model, thereby determining a relation curve of the system flexibility regulation capacity and the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate;
the method for determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range comprises the following steps:
selecting the intersection of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range and the renewable energy power abandonment rate allowable range as the total network available power abandonment rate;
and setting the current power abandoning rate according to the available power abandoning rate of the whole network, and determining the system flexibility adjusting capacity corresponding to the current power abandoning rate according to the relation curve to be used as the flexibility required capacity of the whole network.
2. The method of claim 1,
the theoretical power model of the target annual renewable energy power generation is as follows:
Figure FDA0003678456470000011
in the above formula, P ca (t) is targeted annual renewabilityThe theoretical power of the power generation at the moment t of the energy source,
Figure FDA0003678456470000012
Figure FDA0003678456470000013
for the normalized power output of the wind power plant at time t,
Figure FDA0003678456470000021
for the normalized power generation output of the solar power station at the moment t,
Figure FDA0003678456470000022
for the generated power at the moment t of the wind power plant,
Figure FDA0003678456470000023
waste electric power at time t for a wind power plant, C w (t) is the installed capacity of wind power at the time t of the whole network,
Figure FDA0003678456470000024
the generated power at the moment t of the solar power station,
Figure FDA0003678456470000025
the waste electric power at the time t of the solar power station, C pv (t) the installed capacity of the solar power generation at the time t of the whole network, and i is the number of sampling times of the whole year; t ∈ (0, j), j being the number of target annual sampling instants, C' w (t) is the wind power planning installed capacity at target year t moment, C' pv (t) planning the installed capacity for solar power generation at time t of the target year.
3. The method of claim 1,
the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station is as follows:
Figure FDA0003678456470000026
the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model is as follows:
Figure FDA0003678456470000027
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure FDA0003678456470000028
electric power abandon at time t of renewable energy power station of target year R n Adjusting the target annual renewable energy power curtailment rate, P, corresponding to the capacity for each system flexibility r Adjusting capacity, P, for system flexibility r ∈(0,P ca_max ]J is the number of target annual sampling instants,
Figure FDA0003678456470000029
the theoretical power for generating electricity of the target year.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining thermal power unit flexibility modification capacity according to the full-grid flexibility demand capacity comprises:
determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit at each moment according to the following formula:
Figure FDA00036784564700000210
in the formula, C f (t) the capacity of the thermal power generating unit is flexibly reconstructed at the moment t,
Figure FDA00036784564700000211
Figure FDA00036784564700000212
Figure FDA00036784564700000213
adjusting the capacity, F, for the system flexibility at the current time t t Is the power generation load at the time t of the whole network,
Figure FDA0003678456470000031
the minimum technical output of the whole power generation unit at the time t, I is the optimal starting capacity of the power generation unit,
Figure FDA0003678456470000032
is the minimum technical output at the moment t of the s th thermal power generating unit,
Figure FDA0003678456470000033
capacity is required for full network flexibility;
and selecting the maximum value in the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit at each moment as the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit of the target year.
5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the obtaining of the optimal starting-up capacity of the thermal power generating unit comprises:
acquiring the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit meeting the starting capacity constraint condition of the thermal power generating unit;
comparing the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit with the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power which is determined by an energy monitoring department and ensures heating, and taking the larger value of the starting capacity and the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit as the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
the starting capacity constraint conditions of the thermal power generating unit are as follows:
P t,max +P h,max +P o,max +P w,c +P pv,c ≥max{P l +P c }·(1+β u )
min(P t,max +P h,max +P o,max )
P t,min +P h,min +P o,min ≤min{P l +P c }·(1+β d )
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure FDA0003678456470000034
P w,c forecasting a credible capacity of capacity for wind power generation of a target year, P pv,c Predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target annual solar power generation t,max For starting-up capacity of thermal power, P h,max For the starting-up capacity of water and electricity, P o,max Starting-up capacity of other power supplies, P l For delivering power to the electrical load, P c For the purpose of sending out power for the tie line,
Figure FDA0003678456470000035
the result of the prediction of the wind power generation output,
Figure FDA0003678456470000036
for the solar power generation output prediction result, E w Prediction error for wind power generation output, E pv Prediction error for solar power generation output, C w Installed capacity for wind power generation, C pv Installed capacity for solar power generation; p is t,min Minimum technical contribution, P, to thermal power h,min For minimum technical contribution of hydropower, P o,min Minimum technical contribution, beta, to other power sources d The lower rotation utilization rate.
6. A thermal power generating unit flexibility modification capacity calculation system is characterized by comprising:
the setting module is used for setting a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by utilizing the system flexibility adjusting capacity;
the first determining module is used for determining the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network according to the target annual renewable energy power rate abandoning range;
the second determining module is used for determining the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the flexibility demand capacity of the whole network;
the method for setting the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range by using the system flexibility to adjust the capacity comprises the following steps:
the setting unit is used for setting the system flexibility adjusting capacity range based on the target annual renewable energy power generation theoretical power model;
the first determining unit is used for determining a target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range according to the system flexibility adjusting capacity range;
the setting unit is configured to:
obtaining the maximum value P in the generating theoretical power of the renewable energy at each moment of the target year by using the generating theoretical power model of the renewable energy of the target year ca_max Setting System flexibility to adjust Capacity P r The range of (A) is as follows: p r ∈(0,P ca_max ]；
The first determining unit is configured to:
adjusting the capacity range and the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station according to the system flexibility to obtain the range of the electric power abandonment of the target annual renewable energy power station;
acquiring the range of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate by using the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate model, thereby determining a relation curve of the system flexibility regulation capacity and the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate;
acquiring the range of the power abandonment rate of the renewable energy source of the target year by using the model of the power abandonment rate of the renewable energy source of the target year;
the first determining module is configured to:
selecting the intersection of the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate range and the renewable energy power abandonment rate allowable range as the total network available power abandonment rate;
and setting the current power abandoning rate according to the available power abandoning rate of the whole network, and determining the system flexibility adjusting capacity corresponding to the current power abandoning rate according to the relation curve to be used as the flexibility required capacity of the whole network.
7. The system of claim 6,
the theoretical power model of the target annual renewable energy power generation is as follows:
Figure FDA0003678456470000041
in the above formula, P ca (t) is the theoretical power of power generation at the time t of the target annual renewable energy source,
Figure FDA0003678456470000042
Figure FDA0003678456470000043
for the normalized power output of the wind power plant at time t,
Figure FDA0003678456470000051
for the normalized power generation output of the solar power station at the time t,
Figure FDA0003678456470000052
for the generated power at the moment t of the wind power plant,
Figure FDA0003678456470000053
electric power curtailment at time t for a wind power plant, C w (t) is the installed capacity of wind power at the time t of the whole network,
Figure FDA0003678456470000054
the generated power at the moment t of the solar power station,
Figure FDA0003678456470000055
the waste electric power at the time t of the solar power station, C pv (t) is the installed capacity of solar power generation at the time t of the whole network, and i is the number of sampling times of the whole year; t ∈ (0, j), j being the number of target annual sampling instants, C' w (t) is wind power planning installed capacity at target year time t, C' pv (t) planning the installed capacity for solar power generation at time t of the target year.
8. The system of claim 6,
the electric power abandonment model of the target annual renewable energy power station is as follows:
Figure FDA0003678456470000056
the model of the power abandonment rate of the renewable energy source in the target year comprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003678456470000057
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure FDA0003678456470000058
electric power abandonment at time t of target annual renewable energy power station, R n Adjusting the target annual renewable energy power abandonment rate, P, corresponding to the capacity for each system flexibility r Adjusting capacity, P, for system flexibility r ∈(0,P ca_max ]J is the number of target annual sampling instants,
Figure FDA0003678456470000059
the theoretical power for generating electricity of the target year.
9. The system of claim 6, wherein the second determination module is to:
determining flexibility modification capacity C of thermal power generating unit at t moment according to formula f (t)：
Figure FDA00036784564700000510
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA00036784564700000511
F t is the power generation load at the time t of the whole network,
Figure FDA00036784564700000512
the minimum technical output of the whole power generation unit at the moment t, I is the optimal starting capacity of the power generation unit,
Figure FDA00036784564700000513
the minimum technical output at the moment t of the s-th thermal power generating unit,
Figure FDA00036784564700000514
capacity is adjusted for system flexibility at the current time t,
Figure FDA0003678456470000061
capacity is required for full network flexibility;
and selecting the maximum value in the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit at each moment as the flexibility modification capacity of the thermal power generating unit of the target year.
10. The system of claim 9, wherein the obtaining of the optimal starting-up capacity of the thermal power generating unit comprises:
acquiring the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit meeting the starting capacity constraint condition of the thermal power generating unit;
comparing the starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit with the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power which is determined by an energy monitoring department and ensures heating, and taking the larger value of the starting capacity and the minimum starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit as the optimal starting capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
the starting capacity constraint conditions of the thermal power generating unit are as follows:
P t,max +P h,max +P o,max +P w,c +P pv,c ≥max{P l +P c }·(1+β u )
min(P t,max +P h,max +P o,max )
P t,min +P h,min +P o,min ≤min{P l +P c }·(1+β d )
in the above formula, the first and second carbon atoms are,
Figure FDA0003678456470000062
P w,c forecasting a credible capacity of capacity for wind power generation of a target year, P pv,c Predicting a credible capacity of capacity, P, for a target year of solar power generation t,max For starting-up capacity, P, of thermal power h,max For the starting-up capacity of water and electricity, P o,max Starting-up capacity of other power supplies, P l For delivering power to the electrical load, P c The power is sent out for the connecting line,
Figure FDA0003678456470000063
the result of the prediction of the wind power generation output is obtained,
Figure FDA0003678456470000064
for the prediction of the solar power output, E w Prediction error for wind power generation output, E pv Prediction error for solar power output, C w Installed capacity for wind power generation, C pv Installed capacity for solar power generation; p is t,min For minimum technical contribution of thermal power, P h,min For minimum technical contribution of hydropower, P o,min Minimum technical contribution, beta, to other power sources d The lower rotation utilization rate.
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