CN108985546A - A kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment considering weather conditions - Google Patents
A kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment considering weather conditions Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions, method includes the following steps: S1. establishes the synthesis Weather Risk index system for influencing Operation Condition of Power Transformers；S2. according to the ageing failure probability of power transformer and random failure probability, the synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability of power transformer is obtained；S3. using the synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability of comprehensive Weather Risk index amendment power transformer, the power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit risk evaluation model for considering weather conditions is obtained.Power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment according to the present invention, the meteorologic factor for having larger impact to transformer stable operation is quantified, and the transformer fault outage model of meter and normal aging and random failure is optimized using obtained comprehensive Weather Risk index, the time-varying stoppage in transit risk model for further obtaining considering weather conditions, keeps the risk assessment of transformer more accurate.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power system operation risk assessment field more particularly to power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit risk assessment
Method.
Background technique
With the continuous development of electric system, system scale is increasing, and structure becomes increasingly complex, and anything former capital may
Serious harm is brought to electric system, or even brings significant damage to entire society.Therefore, the risk of discovery safe operation in time,
Take counter-measure early, to guarantee safe operation of power system and to the reliable power supply of user it is particularly significant.And power transformer
Device is one of the core equipment in electric system, and operational reliability is directly related to the safety and stability of entire power grid, so electric
The stoppage in transit risk assessment of power transformer becomes particularly important.
The failure rate of transformer usually takes steady state value in the reliability assessment of traditional power transformer, still, in practical fortune
In row environment, failure rate is a variations per hour, and especially under extreme weather environment, failure rate can be varied widely, so
Consider that weather conditions are necessary in the risk assessment of transformer；Basis of the risk assessment as transformer risk-based maintenance, it is numerous
Scholar establishes emerging Transformer State Assessment model, and more commonly used is Weibull distribution and Markov model, difference
The normal aging and random failure process of transformer are described, both methods achieves preferable effect during single, but
It is the combined influence that can not describe many factors in actual motion.
Each model advantage is integrated as a result, establishes the power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit risk evaluation model for considering weather conditions,
Be conducive to ensure power grid security, the more real-time repair based on condition of component for accurately arranging transformer.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the existing technology and deficiency, provides a kind of electric power change for considering weather conditions
Depressor time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment.Power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment according to the present invention, to transformer
Stable operation has the meteorologic factor of larger impact to be quantified, and using obtained comprehensive Weather Risk index optimize meter and
The transformer fault outage model of normal aging and random failure further obtains the time-varying stoppage in transit risk mould for considering weather conditions
Type keeps the risk assessment of transformer more accurate.
The purpose of the invention is achieved by the following technical solution:
A kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment considering weather conditions, which is characterized in that including following
Step:
S1. the synthesis Weather Risk index system for influencing Operation Condition of Power Transformers is established；
S2. according to the ageing failure probability of power transformer and random failure probability, when obtaining the synthesis of power transformer
Become operation troubles probability；
S3. using the synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability of comprehensive Weather Risk index amendment power transformer, considered
The power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit risk evaluation model of weather conditions.
Further, the step S1 is specifically included:
S101. according to the Meteorological Characteristics of research area of institute, relevant meteorological index is chosen to describe state of weather to electric power
Running state of transformer bring influences；
S102. the weight of each meteorological index is calculated, can be played the role of in overall merit with each meteorological index of determination
Size；
S103. it introduces extreme weather penalty factor to be modified the weight of each meteorological index, calculates comprehensive Weather Risk
Index, to describe meteorological index to risk size brought by power transformer.
Further, the meteorological index includes: temperature, relative humidity, thunder and lightning, rainfall and filthy situation.
Further, the weight that each meteorological index is calculated using entropy assessment passes through the calculating to each meteorological index entropy
Carry out the size of measurement index information content, so that it is guaranteed that the synthesis Weather Risk index system established can reflect the original of the overwhelming majority
Beginning information.
Further, the comprehensive Weather Risk index is calculated using weigthed sums approach.
Further, the comprehensive Weather Risk index is modified using extreme weather penalty factor, extreme weather
Penalty factor is bigger, shows that the severe degree of meteorological index is bigger, and the synthesis Weather Risk index accordingly obtained is also bigger, to electricity
Risk brought by power transformer is also bigger.
Further, the normal aging risk of power transformer is described using Weibull distribution model, is calculated electric power and is become
The ageing failure probability and its probability-distribution function of depressor, to carry out accurate failure point to the ageing process of power transformer
Analysis and prediction.
Further, the random failure risk of power transformer is described using Markov model, calculates power transformer
The random failure probability of device, objectively and accurately to assess the reliability of power transformer.
Further, the ageing failure probability and random failure probability of total probability formula combined power transformer, meter are utilized
Calculation obtains the synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability of power transformer.
The present invention has the following advantages and effects with respect to the prior art:
A kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment considering weather conditions provided by the present invention, quantization
There is the meteorological index of larger impact to power transformer stable operation, is accurately lost in the ageing process to power transformer
On the basis of effect analysis and prediction and the objectively and accurately reliability of assessment power transformer, and utilize obtained comprehensive gas
As risk index optimizes the transformer fault outage model of meter and normal aging and random failure, further obtain considering weather
The time-varying stoppage in transit risk model of factor, keeps the risk assessment of power transformer more accurate.
Power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit risk evaluation model established by the present invention be meteorological index, active time, in real time
The comprehensive of the function of operating parameter is measured, and compared with conventional model, not only reflects accumulated time effect and real-time operating condition
Influence to transformer fault rate, and can count and different weather situation, the leading lower transformer of complete perception different faults mechanism
Synthesis time-varying probability of malfunction.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the step of the method for the present invention；
Fig. 2 is another flow chart of the step of the method for the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the flow chart that the weight of each meteorological index is calculated using entropy assessment.
Specific embodiment
Present invention will now be described in further detail with reference to the embodiments and the accompanying drawings, but embodiments of the present invention are unlimited
In this.
Embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment of consideration weather conditions of the invention, packet
Include following steps:
S1. the synthesis Weather Risk index system for influencing Operation Condition of Power Transformers is established.Specially according to being studied
The Meteorological Characteristics in area, choose relevant meteorological index to describe state of weather to Operation Condition of Power Transformers bring shadow
It rings；Then each meteorological index weight is calculated；Calculate comprehensive Weather Risk index, and introduce extreme weather penalty factor to weight into
Row amendment.
S2. according to the ageing failure probability of power transformer and random failure probability, when obtaining the synthesis of power transformer
Become operation troubles probability.The ageing failure probability and random failure probability of power transformer are specially calculated separately, and using entirely
New probability formula obtains the outage probability of power transformer.
S3. using the synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability of comprehensive Weather Risk index amendment power transformer, considered
The power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit risk evaluation model of weather conditions.
Fig. 2 is another flow chart of the step of the method for the present invention, is that a kind of electric power of consideration weather conditions of the invention becomes
Depressor time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment further realizes.
In step s101, according to the Meteorological Characteristics of research area of institute, it is vaporous to describe day to choose relevant meteorological index
State influences Operation Condition of Power Transformers bring.The finger being affected to running state of transformer is chosen according to historical statistics
Mark, comprising: temperature, relative humidity, thunder and lightning, rainfall and filthy situation.
In step s 102, the weight of each meteorological index is calculated, can be risen in overall merit with each meteorological index of determination
The effect size arrived.Fig. 3 is the flow chart that the weight of each meteorological index is calculated using entropy assessment, using information entropy theory come objective
Ground quantifies weather risk factor, entropy calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, eiFor multiattribute Meteorological Characteristics entropy；D is total months or total time number of segment；yi,jAfter normalization
Certain attribute meteorological factor value.
Corresponding weight is determined according to the effective information difference that each index provides, and passes through the meter to each meteorological index entropy
The size for carrying out measurement index information content is calculated, so that it is guaranteed that the synthesis Weather Risk index system established can reflect the overwhelming majority
Raw information.Shown in its weight computing formula such as formula (2):
Wherein, wiFor the weight of the entropy of each meteorological factor；
In step s 103, it introduces extreme weather penalty factor to be modified the weight of each meteorological index, calculates synthesis
Weather Risk index, to describe meteorological index to risk size brought by power transformer.It is calculated using weigthed sums approach comprehensive
Weather Risk index is closed, and it is modified using extreme weather penalty factor, shown in calculation formula such as formula (3):
Wherein, F is the synthesis Weather Risk index after the amendment of extreme weather penalty factor；Ri,jFor meteorological index whether
Out-of-limit judgment variable, δs,iFor the given threshold of meteorological index i, if meteorological index is more than or equal to δs,i, then Ri,j=1, if meteorological
Index is less than δs,i, then Ri,j=0；βiFor bad weather degree Dynamic gene, value 1 is defaulted.The severe degree of meteorological index is bigger,
Corresponding punishment dynamics are also bigger, and the synthesis Weather Risk index F of response is also bigger, to risk brought by transformer
It is accordingly bigger.
In step S104, the ageing process of power transformer is described using Weibull distribution, obtains its ageing failure
Probability is shown in formula (5):
Wherein, PaFor the probability of transformer ageing failure；T is transformer active time；η is transformer life；α is shape
Parameter.The normal aging risk that power transformer is described using Weibull distribution model, is calculated the old of power transformer
Change failure probability and its probability-distribution function, to carry out accurate failure analysis and pre- to the ageing process of power transformer
It surveys.
In step s105, the random failure process of power transformer is described using Markov model, establishing includes fortune
Two state models of row state and malfunction solve transformer instantaneous state probability.Operation shape is indicated with 0 in modeling process
State, 1 indicates malfunction, obtains running state of transformer probability and malfunction probability:
Wherein, fλAnd fμThe respectively failure rate and repair rate of transformer.
Closely and according to the operating status probability and malfunction probability of transformer, power transformer is objectively and accurately assessed
Reliability.
In step s 106, using total probability formula that normal aging and random failure model is comprehensive, electric power is calculated
Transformer synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability Pb。
In step s 107, the meteorological index based on extreme weather penalty factor obtained in step s 103 is utilized
It corrects the synthesis time-varying fault model obtained in step s 106, obtains considering that the power transformer time-varying of weather conditions is stopped transport
Risk evaluation model, calculation formula such as:
Wherein, PbThe primary fault probability obtained for comprehensive Ageing Model and random failure model；P is based on real-time weather
Revised transformer fault rate under state；δμFor the synthesis Weather Risk index lowest threshold of transformer, as F < δμWhen, transformation
Device failure rate is smaller by inside even from weather, does not consider influence of the weather to transformer fault rate；z,ω,δμFor relevant parameter,
It is calculated as the case may be.
The above embodiment is a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but embodiments of the present invention are not by above-described embodiment
Limitation, other any changes, modifications, substitutions, combinations, simplifications made without departing from the spirit and principles of the present invention,
It should be equivalent substitute mode, be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions, which is characterized in that including following step
It is rapid:
S1. the synthesis Weather Risk index system for influencing Operation Condition of Power Transformers is established；
S2. according to the ageing failure probability of power transformer and random failure probability, the synthesis time-varying fortune of power transformer is obtained
Row probability of malfunction；
S3. it using the synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability of comprehensive Weather Risk index amendment power transformer, obtains considering weather
The power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit risk evaluation model of factor.
2. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that, the step S1 is specifically included:
S101. according to the Meteorological Characteristics of research area of institute, relevant meteorological index is chosen to describe state of weather to power transformer
Device operating status bring influences；
S102. the weight of each meteorological index is calculated, size can be played the role of in overall merit with each meteorological index of determination；
S103. it introduces extreme weather penalty factor to be modified the weight of each meteorological index, calculates comprehensive Weather Risk index,
To describe meteorological index to risk size brought by power transformer.
3. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 2,
It is characterized in that, the meteorological index includes: temperature, relative humidity, thunder and lightning, rainfall and filthy situation.
4. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 2,
It is characterized in that, the weight of each meteorological index is calculated using entropy assessment, measured by the calculating to each meteorological index entropy
The size of indication information amount, so that it is guaranteed that the synthesis Weather Risk index system established can reflect the original letter of the overwhelming majority
Breath.
5. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 2,
It is characterized in that, calculates the comprehensive Weather Risk index using weigthed sums approach.
6. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 5,
It is characterized in that, the comprehensive Weather Risk index is modified using extreme weather penalty factor, extreme weather penalty factor
It is bigger, show that the severe degree of meteorological index is bigger, the synthesis Weather Risk index accordingly obtained is also bigger, to power transformer
Brought risk is also bigger.
7. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that, in the step S2, the normal aging risk of power transformer is described using Weibull distribution model, calculates electricity
The ageing failure probability and its probability-distribution function of power transformer, so that the ageing process to power transformer is accurately lost
Effect analysis and prediction.
8. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that, in the step S2, the random failure risk of power transformer is described using Markov model, calculates electric power
The random failure probability of transformer, objectively and accurately to assess the reliability of power transformer.
9. a kind of power transformer time-varying stoppage in transit methods of risk assessment for considering weather conditions according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that, it is general using the ageing failure probability and random failure of total probability formula combined power transformer in the step S2
The synthesis time-varying operation troubles probability of power transformer is calculated in rate.
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| CN112183976A (en) * | 2020-09-18 | 2021-01-05 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | Distribution transformer risk assessment model construction method, risk assessment method and system |
| CN113177293A (en) * | 2021-04-06 | 2021-07-27 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司湖州供电公司 | Transformer evaluation method considering lightning stroke influence |
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| CN112116276A (en) * | 2020-09-29 | 2020-12-22 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Transformer substation operation risk assessment method considering time-varying state of electrical main equipment |
| CN113177293A (en) * | 2021-04-06 | 2021-07-27 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司湖州供电公司 | Transformer evaluation method considering lightning stroke influence |
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Application publication date: 20181211 |