CN108983322A - A kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall - Google Patents
A kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN108983322A CN108983322A CN201810586498.2A CN201810586498A CN108983322A CN 108983322 A CN108983322 A CN 108983322A CN 201810586498 A CN201810586498 A CN 201810586498A CN 108983322 A CN108983322 A CN 108983322A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- temperature
- rainfall
- rain
- snowfall
- pas
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
Landscapes
- Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Atmospheric Sciences (AREA)
- Biodiversity & Conservation Biology (AREA)
- Ecology (AREA)
- Environmental Sciences (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of prediction techniques of winter rainfall snowfall, belong to meteorological technical field.The present invention analyzes the statistical relationship of the meteorological measurings and precipitation phase such as each layer temperature, humidity, wind, finds discrimination threshold by finding sufficient snowfall, rain and snow mixed, rainfall sample using conventional observations such as sounding, ground.And the physical mechanism formed according to Snowfall, new physical quantity is designed, comprehensive each physical quantity forms optimal physical quantity discriminant criterion combination.The determination method of the rainfall snowfall in winter proposed by the present invention accurately can determine winter rainfall, snowfall, rain and snow mixed and sleet using multiple parameters index, have the advantages that prediction accuracy is high.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of prediction techniques of winter rainfall snowfall, belong to meteorological technical field.
Background technique
It is good not yet to the differentiation of Precipitation in Winter phase at present to do after cancelling ground artificial vision from January, 2014
Often there is rain, snow, graupel and coexist and convert frequently in method, especially winter, this brings the assurance of live weather to forecaster very big
Problem, seriously affect quality of forecast.In terms of precipitation phase differentiates research, both at home and abroad using wind profile radar to precipitation particles
The research of phase is seldom, is mostly focused in an example analysis, and research all gives some indexs, but is according to a small amount of example mostly
It obtains, and everyone result of study some differences.So low layer to a Cold Wave Weather process in 2005 such as Aiwa
Atmospheric temperature structure feature is analyzed, it is believed that and 925hPa atmospheric temperature below is the key that the conversion of Precipitation of South China phase,
Temperature≤- 2 DEG C 925hPa can be used as the forecast foundation of solid precipitation.Liang Hong etc. mentions 850 during analyzing a Shenyang severe snow
For hundred pa temperature less than 0 DEG C, 2 meters of ground temperature is used as snowfall foundation less than 0 DEG C.Li Jiangbo etc. summarizes a strong cold air mistake
Journey, it is indicated that being decreased obviously of 0 DEG C of layer, surface temperature can be made in 0 DEG C or so and 1000hPa temperature at 2 DEG C or less when snowfall occurs
For the criterion of sleet conversion, and find that 850hPa range of temperature is big, but the influence to precipitation phase is little, 925hPa or less
Temperature plays a major role to precipitation phase.And Liu build it is brave equal to south twice snowfall analysis shows, zero degree layer height and 925
Hundred -2 DEG C of indexs of pa temperature in the process and are not suitable for twice at this.Paint beam wave etc. to the sleet example in 5 winters of East China into
Row research gives the fertilizer index and threshold value of some judgement precipitation and snowfall, but these threshold values are drawn according in forefathers' document
It is used to, there is no carry out screening verification.
However above-mentioned determination method remains the not high problem of predictablity rate.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is by finding sufficient snowfall, rain and snow mixed, rainfall sample, using conventional observations such as sounding, ground,
The statistical relationship for analyzing the meteorological measurings and precipitation phase such as each layer temperature, humidity, wind, finds discrimination threshold.And according to drop
The physical mechanism that snowy day gas is formed, designs new physical quantity, and comprehensive each physical quantity forms optimal physical quantity discriminant criterion group
It closes.
Technical solution is:
A kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall, comprising: determine rainfall, rainfall, rain and snow mixed step；
Its criterion is:
When 1.3~10.8 DEG C of 2 meters of temperature near the ground, 100,000 pa temperature 0~10.4 (DEG C), zero degree layer height 210~
It is rainfall when 3916 (gpm), 85,000 pas and 100,000 pa 1290~1350gpm of thickness difference；
When 0.2~6.6 DEG C of 2 meters of temperature near the ground, -2~5.4 DEG C of 100,000 pa temperature, zero degree layer height 0~919
(gpm), 85,000 pas and be rain and snow mixed when 100,000 pa thickness difference 1280~1300；
When 2 meters of temperature -2.5~2.6 DEG C near the ground, 100,000 pa temperature -5~0.6 (DEG C), zero degree layer height 0~303
(gpm), 85,000 pas and be rainfall when 100,000 pa 1260~1300gpm of thickness difference.
In a preferred embodiment, 85,000 pas and when 100,000 pas thickness difference >=1300gpm, 2 meters of temperature near the ground >=
It is determined as rainfall when 3 DEG C, zero degree layer height >=600gpm, 100,000 pa temperature=1.5 DEG C.
In a preferred embodiment, 85,000 pas and 100,000 pas thickness difference≤1280gpm, 2 meters of temperature≤1 near the ground
DEG C, 100,000 pa temperature≤0 DEG C when be determined as snowfall.
In a preferred embodiment, 85,000 pa of 1280gpm ﹤ and 100,000 pa thickness difference ﹤ 1300gpm and warm thickness
When degree > 0, it is determined as rain and snow mixed.
In a preferred embodiment, further include the steps that determining winter sleet, criterion is: surface temperature is -1
~0 degree, there is warm layer in middle layer, and steam relative humidity near the ground is greater than 90%, and surface temperature dew-point spread is less than 2 degree.
In a preferred embodiment, steam relative humidity near the ground is greater than 95%.
Beneficial effect
The determination method of the rainfall snowfall in winter proposed by the present invention can be determined accurately using multiple parameters index
Winter rainfall, snowfall, rain and snow mixed and sleet have the advantages that prediction accuracy is high.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1, crystallized layer depth, warm thickness degree, zero degree layer height, cloud-top temperature schematic diagram.
The differentiation effect of Fig. 2, H0 (zero degree layer height)；
The differentiation effect of Fig. 3, Dh850-1000 (85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness differences)；
The differentiation effect of Fig. 4, T2m (2 meters of ground temperature)；
The rainy rate of failing to report of Fig. 5, each index, empty report rate and TS scoring；
Fig. 6, each index score to the rate of failing to report of snow, empty report rate and TS；
Fig. 7, typical sleet sounding figure；
Fig. 8, typical sleet sounding figure；
Fig. 9, typical pure snow sounding figure；
Figure 10, typical pure snow sounding figure；
Figure 11,5 days 08 March in 2015 are Quzhou station sounding figures.
Specific embodiment
Heretofore described unit " degree " all refers to degree Celsius without specializing.
Source of meteorological data:
Suitable research sample is chosen, 2011-2015 Precipitation in Winter example is screened, wherein great rain is chosen
Snow conversion process 8, be respectively 15-20 days in January, 2011,4-6 days in January, 2012,20-24 days January, 24-28 days 2 months,
26-29 days December, 2-8 days in January, 2013,6-10 days 2 months, 8-10 days 2 months 2014.Read the whole province 3 sounding station Hangzhou, thoroughfares
State, Hong Jia, souding upper-air observation and surface Weather phenomenon when 08 and when 20.Using each time raob of standing as a sample,
157 precipitation samples are obtained, wherein 79 rainfalls, 46 snowfalls, 32 rain and snow mixeds (ice pellets).Wherein because of a example of ice pellets
It is less and similar with rain and snow mixed formation condition, therefore the two is classified as one kind.
Data parameters:
The factor for influencing precipitation phase is related to cloud physics, ambient air temperature etc. (Liao Xiaonong etc., 2013).Guarantee to avenge
Flower, which is fallen to the ground, must satisfy two conditions: the condition for having suitable ice and snow to be formed and increased in a cloud, second is that the mistake of snowflake landing
Raindrop are not melted into journey.It is that is high to have enough damp conditions in vain and the nuclei of condensation form enough ice and snow substances,
Temperature sufficiently low ice and snow in low latitude cannot melt.
In order to find the physical quantity for suitably characterizing these Atmospheric Characteristics, 26 objects are calculated according to sounding and surface data
Reason amount, wherein have the temperature including each significant level in high-altitude, humidity and wind, the temperature and humidity on ground, 50,000 pas and 100,000 pas
Thickness difference H51,50,000 pas and 70,000 pa thickness difference H57,85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness difference H81,50,000 pas and 85,000
Pa thickness difference H58 and zero degree layer height H0.
Low layer is commonly present inversion layer when in view of snowing or even inversion layer temperature is greater than zero degree, very big on phase influence, because
This carries out interpolation to Sounding Data in vertical direction, finds out the barosphere thickness that the temperature on zero-degree layer is greater than zero degree, note
To warm up thickness degree Pwarm.In order to characterize high-rise wet layer thickness, temperature is devised less than -4 DEG C of gas of dew-point deficit less than 4 DEG C
Pressurized layer thickness is denoted as crystallized layer depth Pice.In addition the temperature for calculating minimum air pressure layer of the dew-point deficit less than 4 DEG C is cloud top
Temperature Ttop.Warm thickness degree, crystallized layer depth, cloud-top temperature determine that method is shown in Fig. 1.
Warm thickness degree refers to: more than 90,000 pa of high-altitude, -20 DEG C≤temperature≤- 2 DEG C and dew-point temperature difference be less than 4 DEG C
Barosphere overall thickness.
Crystallized layer depth refers to: being greater than the overall thickness of 0 DEG C of barosphere in temperature aloft.
Melt in solid precipitation dropping process, not only related with environment temperature, also related with ambient humidity, same temperature
Under the conditions of, if humidity is smaller, water evaporation heat absorption in solid particles surface can make ambient temperature lower.Therefore wet bulb temperature is used
Degree zero degree layer height can more reflect lower atmosphere layer to the thawing ability of solid particles.
Distinguish rain, snow optimal threshold extraction:
Each index is calculated, each index and known live precipitation phase are compared, and investigate each index to phase
The ability of differentiation.Compare by tentatively drawing, finds 9 indexs for having preferable reference value, respectively Dh500-1000 (500
Hundred pas and 100,000 pa thickness differences), Dh700-850 (70,000 pas and 85,000 pa thickness differences), Dh950-1000 (85,000 pas and
100000 pa thickness differences), H0 (zero degree layer height), T850 (85,000 pa temperature), T 925 (92,500 pa temperature), T1000
(100,000 pa temperature), T2m (2 meters of ground temperature), DT1000 (100,000 pa dew point).Although 3 exclusive use effects are bad,
But cooperate other index uses that can play emptying, respectively warm thickness degree Pwarm, crystallized layer depth Pice, cloud-top temperature
Ttop。
Fig. 2-Fig. 4 can be seen that surface temperature and pure snow and rain belt indexed preferably, and most of example temperature is big when raining
In 2 degree, major part temperature is lower than 2 degree when snowing.The lower zero degree layer height the easier to snow, and zero degree layer height is 300 when snowing
Meter or less (maximum 302 meters), zero degree layer height is no more than 1000 meters (940 meters maximum), only a rainy sample when rain and snow mixed
Less than 300 meters (210 meters) of height.Dh850-1000 (85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness differences) this layer of mean temperature of smaller explanation
It is lower, it is easier to snow.It is essentially avenged less than 1290 geopotential meter precipitation phases as we can see from the figure, is greater than 1300 geopotential meter bases
This is rain.Only accurate judgement optimal index has subjectivity from figure, therefore devises sample coincidence factor, related coefficient to sentence
Other index superiority and inferiority calculates TS scoring to determine optimal threshold.
It can be seen that, the average value of each index difference group has certain difference and avenges with being become by rain from table 1
And reduce, show that these indexs all to a certain extent distinguish phase.From the maximum value and minimum value of each group of sample
From the point of view of, each group of data distribution, which all exists, to overlap, even if rain and snow can not be distinguished completely, that is, the maximum value avenged is than rain
Minimum value is big.But the coincidence quantity of each index rain and snow core sheet is different, it is clear that fall in the sample size for being overlapped section
More fewer, better.It calculates rain and avenges the ratio that Distribution value accounts for all samples in the sample for being overlapped section, 2 meters of temperature, 100,000 pa temperature
Degree and three indexs of zero degree layer height fall in be overlapped section sample size it is minimum, in thickness indication most preferably 85,000 pas and
100000 pa thickness differences.
Table 1
The weather phenomenon of all samples is quantized, rainy sample is denoted as 1, and rain and snow mixed is denoted as 2, and snow is denoted as 3, with each index
Seek related coefficient.To all samples, only rain and rain and snow mixed sample, and only rain and snow mixed and snow core originally calculate separately.Acquired phase
Relationship number is as shown in table 2, it can be seen that all samples, maximum related coefficient is that 2 meters of temperature reach -0.84172, is secondly
100000 pa temperature are -0.82971, and third is 85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness differences also above -0.82.For distinguish rain and
The degree of correlation of rain and snow mixed, all indexes is lower, and optimal index is 85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness differences, reaches -0.61692,
Second and third be 100,000 pa temperature and 92,500 pa temperature respectively.For individually distinguishing rain and snow mixed and avenging best index
It is then zero degree layer height, followed by 2 meters of temperature, third is 100,000 pa temperature.Therefore in general for differentiating precipitation phase,
Preferable index is 2 meters of temperature, zero degree layer height, 85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness differences and 100,000 pa temperature.It can be seen that
Common 85,000 pa temperature overall effect is not so good as 92,500 pa temperature, and 92,500 pa temperature are not so good as 100,000 pa temperature.For
Thickness index, 85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness difference correlations are better than other two thickness indexes.
Table 2
An optimal threshold value is intentionally got, TS skill highest is made, corresponding sky report rate and rate of failing to report are smaller.To 2 meters of temperature
Degree, zero degree layer height, 85,000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness differences, this 4 indexs of 100,000 pa temperature calculate separately.First determine rain
A certain index value interval, calculates the empty report rate as index >=Φ, rate of failing to report and TS scoring, and Φ is any in value interval
Value.For avenging empty report rate when then parameter≤Φ, rate of failing to report and TS scoring.
From fig. 5, it is seen that forecasting that the skill scoring highest scoring of rain reaches 0.8, phase as T1000 >=1300gpm
It answers empty report rate and rate of failing to report all lower, when T2m >=3 DEG C, forecasts that the skill scoring highest scoring of rain reaches 0.82, zero degree layer height
When H0 >=600gpm, forecast skill scoring up to 0.81, and T1000 forecast skill highest at 1.5 DEG C, also about
0.81.It will be seen from figure 6 that forecast that the skill scoring highest scoring of snow reaches 0.76 as H850-1000≤1280gpm,
Corresponding sky report rate and rate of failing to report are all lower, when T2m≤1 DEG C, forecast that the skill scoring highest scoring of snow reaches 0.83, zero-degree layer is high
When spending H0≤200, forecast skill scoring up to 0.84, and forecast skill highest when T1000≤0 DEG C, also about 0.83.
Rain and snow mixed forecasting procedure research:
We have obtained the optimal parameter of each indices prediction rain and snow, and TS scoring maximum can achieve 0.8 or so, tool
Standby preferable application value.In general, rain and snow mixed falls between, therefore we are 1 DEG C of 3 DEG C of ﹤ T2m ﹤, 0 DEG C of ﹤ T1000 ﹤
1.5 DEG C, 200gpm ﹤ H0 ﹤ 600gpm, 1280gpm ﹤ DH850-1000 ﹤ 1300gpm, respectively as sleety index, calculate TS
Scoring and empty report rate, rate of failing to report, the empty report rate that (is shown in Table 3) as the result is shown and rate of failing to report are all very high, and TS scoring is very low, it is maximum also only
It is 0.36, therefore is only difficult to the recognition effect reached by these criterions.
Sleety prediction performance under the different indexs of table 3
Sleety average vertical temperature profile is close in low layer and snow, i.e., temperature is lower, but close with rain in middle level, temperature
Degree is higher, so that snowflake has partial melting in middle level, drops to ground and continues to melt in surface layer, occurs in the form of rain and snow mixed.
We analyze selected sounding, and discovery rain and snow mixed occurs and is roughly divided into two kinds of situations, one is middle layer temperature is low, and near-earth
Face temperature is higher, hence it is evident that higher than temperature when snowing, partial melting when snowflake falls；It is warm that another kind is that the middle layer that Qi Liangbo is pointed out has
The case where layer.Criterion selected by front all indicates the temperature regime of surface layer, and to middle layer warm up layer without reference to.Warm thickness degree refers to
Although mark, which is used alone, differentiates effect and bad to phase, cooperate other temperature index that there can be preferable finger to rain and snow mixed
Show.Occur a example of warm layer in statistical sample, occurs 2 (4.3%) of warm layer in all snow core sheets, rain and snow mixed 11 is (about
35%), rain 32 (about 41%), ratio and the rain for occurring warm layer in rain and snow mixed are close, much higher than snow.It can be seen that there is temperature in low latitude
It is less susceptible to snow when warming up layer greater than zero degree, therefore warm layer can be treated as snowy emptying index.
Using warm layer as one of sleety criterion combine, i.e., index be 1280gpm ﹤ DH850-1000 ﹤ 1300gpm or
DH850-1000≤1280gpm, and warm thickness degree is greater than 0；200gpm ﹤ H0 ﹤ 600gpm or H0≤200gpm, and warm thickness degree
Greater than 0；3 DEG C of 1 DEG C of ﹤ T2m ﹤ or T2m≤1 DEG C, and warm thickness degree is greater than 0；0 DEG C of 1.5 DEG C of ﹤ T1000 ﹤, T1000≤0 DEG C, and it is warm
Thickness degree is greater than 0.It can be seen that, the index rate of failing to report of warm layer criterion is added from table 4, empty report rate is substantially reduced, TS scoring
It significantly improves, zero degree layer height+warm layer criterion reaches 0.53.It has clear improvement, has to rain and snow mixed forecast after warm layer criterion is added
Standby certain availability, but still it is significantly lower than rain and snow.Illustrate to distinguish this intermediate state precipitation of rain and snow mixed and still be difficult, reason
To form that sleety condition is complex, and temperature lamination is varied in real atmosphere, temperature lamination some variation can
It can influence final phase.And in practical weather rain and snow mixed also really often and rain or snow appearance together, the case where individually occurring pole
It is few.
Sleety prediction performance after warm layer criterion is added in table 4
The method of discrimination of sleet:
Sleet records less in Zhejiang Province's surface-based observing station, and what extensive sleet occurred in the last time is in January, 2008
At the beginning of bottom to 2 months.Although often there is sleet appearance in High aititude mountain area, it is the absence of specific observational record, not as research data
It is enough rigorous.Therefore it uses sleet in 2008 to observe as sample progress sleet mechanism study and is collected into 4 by online newspaper
There is the report of sleet in mountain beauty spot, as verifying.
On the 25-2 month in January, 2,008 2 mainly occurred for sleet in 2008, and 44 station of sleet time is recorded altogether, is divided into two for survey station
Stage, 25-28 days January and 1-2 days 2 months.Wherein it is predominantly located within 25-28 in January days Zhe Bei and the Zhejiang central and north, 1-2 days 2 months process masters
To be located at Quzhou, Jinhua Region in Zhejiang.When there is sleet, surface temperature is 0 degree (28 times), -1 degree (12 times), -2 degree (2
It is secondary), 1 degree (2 times).Surface temperature dew-point spread: less than be equal to 39 times, 5 times equal to 2 degree of 1 degree.To having sleet and only pure snow
Sounding compare, there is warm layer in discovery sleet process middle layer, and pure snow sounding middle layer does not have warm layer substantially.Sleet process
The thickness difference of 70000 pas and 85,000 pas is greater than pure snow process.Typical sleet (Fig. 7 and Fig. 8) and pure snow (Fig. 9 and Figure 10) sounding
Comparison, it is seen that sleet occurrence condition can conclude are as follows: surface temperature is -1~0 degree, and middle layer, which exists, warms up layer, close saturation near the ground,
Surface temperature dew-point spread is less than 2 degree.Wherein, in Fig. 7, zero degree layer height: 0；85000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness: 1280m；700
Hundred pas and 85,000 pa thickness: 1560m；In Fig. 8, zero degree layer height: 0；85000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness: 1280m；70000
Pa and 85,000 pa thickness: 1560；In Fig. 9, zero degree layer height: 0；85000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness: 1280m；70000 pas and
85000 pa thickness: 1540m；Zero degree layer height: 0；85000 pas and 100,000 pa thickness: 1280m；70000 pas and 85,000 pas are thick
Degree: 1520m.
The mountain area sleet example found by the network media: 2 months 2015 28 day and night Linan Daming Shan Mountains；March 5 in 2015
Day Quzhou Qili perfume (or spice) on the -6th；17-18 days in December, 2013 Quzhou Gao Ping；January in 2013 pool Yuan Kou of Jiangshan City on the 6th.By over the ground
Face temperature and precipitation and same day Sounding Data analysis are found, should although these websites surrounding is all being rained when sleet occurs
It stands but without rainfall, in addition surface temperature is below zero degree, around has the website temperature of rainfall to be greater than zero degree.As 2015 in Figure 10
When on March 5,06 in, Quzhou Qili township (700 meters of height above sea level) automatic Weather Station and surrounding two stations, 1 hour precipitation is 0 second, 2 meters of temperature
For -0.8 degree.And ambient stations have precipitation, illustrate that under the very possible township Qi Li station be sleet.When from 5 days 08 March in 2015
Quzhou station sounding can be less than -20 degree with cloud-top temperature, contain a large amount of ice and snow substances in cloud layer, it is seen that there are deep to warm up in middle layer
Layer, can when ice crystal be melted into water.700 and 850 thickness differences are larger, and near the ground all close to saturation.Although sounding station ground temperature
Degree is greater than 0 degree, but the township the Qi Li altitude mountainous area Deng Gao surface temperature is lower than 0 degree.The ice phase condition of mechanism of sleet under convergence.Figure 11
It is 5 days 08 March in 2015 is Quzhou station sounding.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall characterized by comprising determine rainfall, rainfall, rain and snow mixed step；
Its criterion is:
When 1.3~10.8 DEG C of 2 meters of temperature near the ground, 100,000 pa temperature 0~10.4 (DEG C), zero degree layer height 210~3916
(gpm), 85,000 pas and be rainfall when 100,000 pa 1290~1350gpm of thickness difference；
When 0.2~6.6 DEG C of 2 meters of temperature near the ground, -2~5.4 DEG C of 100,000 pa temperature, zero degree layer height 0~919 (gpm), 850
It is rain and snow mixed when hundred pas and 100,000 pa thickness difference 1280~1300；
When 2 meters of temperature -2.5~2.6 DEG C near the ground, 100,000 pa temperature -5~0.6 (DEG C), zero degree layer height 0~303 (gpm),
85000 pas and be rainfall when 100,000 pa 1260~1300gpm of thickness difference.
2. the prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall according to claim 1, which is characterized in that 85,000 pas and 100,000 pas
When thickness difference >=1300gpm, when 2 meters of temperature >=3 DEG C near the ground, zero degree layer height >=600gpm, 100,000 pa temperature=1.5 DEG C
It is determined as rainfall.
3. the prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall according to claim 1, which is characterized in that 85,000 pas and 100,000 pas
It is determined as snowfall when thickness difference≤1280gpm, 2 meters of temperature≤1 DEG C near the ground, 100,000 pa temperature≤0 DEG C.
4. the prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall according to claim 1, which is characterized in that 85,000 pa of 1280gpm ﹤ and
When 100000 pa thickness difference ﹤ 1300gpm and warm thickness degree > 0, it is determined as rain and snow mixed.
5. the prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall according to claim 1, which is characterized in that further include determining winter sleet
The step of, criterion is: surface temperature is -1~0 degree, and middle layer has warm layer, and steam relative humidity near the ground is greater than
90%, surface temperature dew-point spread is less than 2 degree.
6. the prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall according to claim 1, which is characterized in that steam relative humidity near the ground
Greater than 95%.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810586498.2A CN108983322A (en) | 2018-06-08 | 2018-06-08 | A kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810586498.2A CN108983322A (en) | 2018-06-08 | 2018-06-08 | A kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN108983322A true CN108983322A (en) | 2018-12-11 |
Family
ID=64541046
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810586498.2A Pending CN108983322A (en) | 2018-06-08 | 2018-06-08 | A kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN108983322A (en) |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110619109A (en) * | 2019-08-01 | 2019-12-27 | 中国林业科学研究院 | Precipitation phase state identification method in alpine region |
| CN111649703A (en) * | 2019-10-05 | 2020-09-11 | 邓涛 | Thickness identification device based on parameter analysis |
Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103823254A (en) * | 2014-01-15 | 2014-05-28 | 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所 | Road weather forecast method and system, and road weather forecast display method and system |
-
2018
- 2018-06-08 CN CN201810586498.2A patent/CN108983322A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103823254A (en) * | 2014-01-15 | 2014-05-28 | 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所 | Road weather forecast method and system, and road weather forecast display method and system |
Non-Patent Citations (5)
| Title |
|---|
| 孔照林: "风廓线下落速度在浙江冬季降水相态识别中的应用", 《气象》 * |
| 彭霞云: "浙江省冬季降水相态判别指标研究", 《浙江气象》 * |
| 徐辉: "一次降水相态转换过程中温度垂直结构特征分析", 《高原气象》 * |
| 罗海波: "2010年2月下旬东北地区冻雨成因分析和预报", 《强化科技基础 推进气象现代化——第29届中国气象学会年会》 * |
| 高松影: "丹东冬季降水相态判据研究", 《气象与环境学报》 * |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110619109A (en) * | 2019-08-01 | 2019-12-27 | 中国林业科学研究院 | Precipitation phase state identification method in alpine region |
| CN111649703A (en) * | 2019-10-05 | 2020-09-11 | 邓涛 | Thickness identification device based on parameter analysis |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Chu et al. | Changes in precipitation extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a warming climate | |
| Wilkinson et al. | Improved microphysical parametrization of drizzle and fog for operational forecasting using the Met Office Unified Model | |
| Tjernström et al. | How well do regional climate models reproduce radiation and clouds in the Arctic? An evaluation of ARCMIP simulations | |
| Nguyen‐Le et al. | Climatological onset date of summer monsoon in Vietnam. | |
| Manzato | Hail in northeast Italy: Climatology and bivariate analysis with the sounding-derived indices | |
| Reeves et al. | Synoptic-scale flow and valley cold pool evolution in the western United States | |
| Grotjahn et al. | Composite predictor maps of extraordinary weather events in the Sacramento, California, region | |
| Vajda et al. | Probabilities of adverse weather affecting transport in Europe: climatology and scenarios up to the 2050s | |
| Ma et al. | A test of Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) for the Gongnaisi River basin in the western Tianshan Mountains, China | |
| Fiddes et al. | Synoptic climatology of extreme precipitation in alpine Australia. | |
| Baltaci et al. | Climatological conditions of the Black Sea-effect snowfall events in Istanbul, Turkey | |
| Stander et al. | A snow forecasting decision tree for significant snowfall over the interior of South Africa | |
| Kelly et al. | Synoptic classification of 2009–2010 precipitation events in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA | |
| Steiger et al. | Lake-effect thunderstorms in the lower Great Lakes | |
| CN108983322A (en) | A kind of prediction technique of winter rainfall snowfall | |
| Yang et al. | Classification of precipitation type in North China using model-based explicit fields of hydrometeors with modified thermodynamic conditions | |
| Jwa et al. | Characteristics of raindrop size distribution in Seoul, South Korea according to rain and weather types | |
| Ren et al. | Change in climatic extremes over mainland China based on an integrated extreme climate index | |
| Yin et al. | Observational characteristics of cloud vertical profiles over the continent of East Asia from the CloudSat data | |
| Baik et al. | A climatology of sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of western North Pacific tropical cyclones | |
| Gough | Impact of urbanization on the nature of precipitation at Toronto, Ontario, Canada | |
| Marshall et al. | Madden–Julian oscillation impacts on Australian temperatures and extremes | |
| Loth et al. | Modeling the snow cover in climate studies: 1. Long‐term integrations under different climatic conditions using a multilayered snow‐cover model | |
| Zheng et al. | Summertime marine boundary layer cloud, thermodynamic, and drizzle morphology over the eastern North Atlantic: A four-year study | |
| Farnell et al. | Proposal of three thermodynamic variables to discriminate between storms associated with hail and storms with intense rainfall in Catalonia |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20181211 |
|
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |