CN108960626A - A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method - Google Patents
A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN108960626A CN108960626A CN201810716014.1A CN201810716014A CN108960626A CN 108960626 A CN108960626 A CN 108960626A CN 201810716014 A CN201810716014 A CN 201810716014A CN 108960626 A CN108960626 A CN 108960626A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- correlation
- trap
- analysis method
- multilayer
- risk analysis
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Investigation Of Foundation Soil And Reinforcement Of Foundation Soil By Compacting Or Drainage (AREA)
Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method, by being configured to storage layer dependencies, inputs between the correlation each geological conditions；Payzone probability value when calculating separately multilayer threat probability values in the case where correlation and non-correlation to calculate: be calculated according to the probability value that formula when having correlation and non-correlation carries out related payzone, and calculating non-correlation simultaneously；Carry out result figure drafting.While the present invention reduces the workload for the geologic risk evaluation that each enterprise-like corporation needs to put into, the level that researcher is estimated as power is improved；The method for enriching the prediction of geology success rate, eliminates the relevance evaluation deviation for more target zone Geological Evaluation of Trap, ensure that and is unlikely to excessively optimistic or overly conservative to the geological analysis of exploration targets.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to exploration of oil and gas field geologic assessment technical fields, and in particular to geological risk analysis functional software.
Background technique
Trap consists of three parts: reservoir, prevents oil gas from continuing the shelter that migration causes oil-gas accumulation at cap rock, it
It can be the bending deformation of cap rock itself, such as anticline, be also possible to other shelter, such as tomography, variation of lithological.In short,
Trap is the useful space for having capture dispersion hydro carbons and forming oil-gas accumulation, has the ability of storage oil gas, but different in trap
Oil gas is established a capital.Once there is sufficient amount of oil gas to enter trap, full of trap or a part of trap is occupied, oil can be formed
Gas reservoir.The size and scale of trap often decideOil-gas reservoirReserves size, size is the maximum dischargeable capacity by trap
Come what is measured.The maximum dischargeable capacity of trap indicates that the trap can accommodate the maximum volume of oil gas.Therefore, it is evaluation trap
One of important parameter.
The purpose of geology success rate evaluation is exactly a possibility that pointing out exploration targets there are oil gas and the main geologic of exploration
Risk, it is an important job during oil-gas exploration geologic assessment.In geological risk analysis, it is frequently encountered more
Correlation on layer Trap evaluation, in real work, often ignores correlation between them, passes through independent, multiple evaluation
And check, the success rate of evaluation goal is derived, to instruct exploration activities；Each enterprise-like corporation needs to put into very big manpower, object
Power and financial resources, to guarantee that the geological analysis to exploration targets is unlikely to excessively optimistic or overly conservative.In geological risk analysis,
Oil gas field multilayer trap target geological relevance factors are relatively more, and current most of companies are used substantially by the probability of ground prime factor
It is simply averaged, is not considered that probability successfully relies on condition between each layer, it is obvious relative to independent factor situation in this way
A possibility that greatly reducing successfully, to affect the assessment to trap economic value.
Summary of the invention
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method,
Consider that the geology relevance factors that multilayer trap target is evaluated under shared conditions realize evaluation using conditional probability arithmetic
A variety of conditional probabilities such as at least one layer of successfully probability and its success number of plies increase to obtain the geology success rate of evaluation goal
Into the careful property recognized Trap evaluation risk.
A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method, includes the following steps:
(1) input of geological conditions (prime factor) probability value and management；
(2) reservoir correlation is arranged: being configured to storage layer dependencies, the correlation between each geological conditions carries out defeated
Enter, correlation size is 0-1；
(3) multilayer threat probability values calculate in the case where having calculated separately correlation and non-correlation:
It is calculated according to the probability value that correlation formula when having correlation and non-correlation carries out related payzone, and calculated simultaneously
Payzone probability value when non-correlation；
(4) result figure is drawn: a variety of combinations for having correlation and non-correlation are carried out graphical display；
(5) result report display: the every figure of the step (4) is shown in Grid table with report form,
And it saves into Excel file format；
(6) result is saved in database: the step (3) calculated result is saved in database.
Further, the step (1) specifically: according to geological conditions (factor) information input probability value of trap, such as
Hydrocarbon source, reservoir, cap rock, trap, poly- this five the earth prime factor probability value of matching of fortune, range 0~1；
Further, the step (1), further includes: the typing and modification of geological conditions (factor) probability value information are provided
Administration page, and flexible mode of operation is provided, as Excel is imported and directly pastes from other files；
Further, the step (2), specifically: user directly can input or select, and set up correlation
System will calculate under this correlation automatically after property, influence of the setting value of this correlation to setting.Such as: P (A | B), work as B
The probability of success of A when success, i.e., A, B layers setting having when correlation；
Graphical format is .bmp in the step (4), and .jpg is a kind of.
The present invention has the advantages that multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method disclosed by the invention has below beneficial to effect
Fruit:
1, it while reducing the workload for the geologic risk evaluation that each enterprise-like corporation needs to put into, improves researcher and estimates
It is counted as the level of power；
2, the method for enriching the prediction of geology success rate, eliminates and the correlation of more target zone Geological Evaluation of Trap is commented
Estimate deviation, ensure that and excessively optimistic or overly conservative is unlikely to the geological analysis of exploration targets.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is flow diagram of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is probability comparison diagram of the present invention；
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in detail below, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clearly and completely
Description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on this hair
Embodiment in bright, every other implementation obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts
Example, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method, includes the following steps:
(1) input of geological conditions (prime factor) probability value and management；
(2) reservoir correlation is arranged: being configured to storage layer dependencies, the correlation between each geological conditions carries out defeated
Enter, correlation size is 0-1；
(3) multilayer threat probability values calculate in the case where having calculated separately correlation and non-correlation:
It is calculated according to the probability value that correlation formula when having correlation and non-correlation carries out related payzone, and calculated simultaneously
Payzone probability value when non-correlation；
(4) result figure is drawn: a variety of combinations for having correlation and non-correlation are carried out graphical display；
(5) result report display: the every figure of the step (4) is shown in Grid table with report form,
And it saves into Excel file format；
(6) result is saved in database: the step (3) calculated result is saved in database.
Further, the step (1) specifically: according to geological conditions (factor) information input probability value of trap, such as
Hydrocarbon source, reservoir, cap rock, trap, poly- this five the earth prime factor probability value of matching of fortune, range 0~1；
Further, the step (1), further includes: the typing and modification of geological conditions (factor) probability value information are provided
Administration page, and flexible mode of operation is provided, as Excel is imported and directly pastes from other files；
Further, the step (2), specifically: user directly can input or select, and set up correlation
System will calculate under this correlation automatically after property, influence of the setting value of this correlation to setting.Such as: P (A | B), work as B
The probability of success of A when success, i.e., A, B layers setting having when correlation；
Graphical format is .bmp in the step (4), and .jpg is a kind of.
The geology relevance factors that multilayer trap target is evaluated under shared conditions are considered through the invention, using condition
Probabilistic algorithm realizes a variety of conditional probabilities such as at least one layer of successfully probability of evaluation and its success number of plies, to obtain evaluation mesh
Target geology success rate promotes the careful property recognized Trap evaluation risk.
Step (3) the probability value calculating process is as follows:
(1) condition probability formula
If A, B are two events, and P (B) > 0, then under conditions of event B occurs, conditional probability that event A occurs
(conditional probability) are as follows:
P (A | B)=P (AB)/P (B)
(2) multiplication formula
1. being obtained by condition probability formula:
P (AB)=P (A | B) P (B)=P (B | A) P (A)
Above formula is multiplication formula；
2. the popularization of multiplication formula: have for any positive integer n >=2 as P (A1A2...An-1) > 0:
P (A1A2...An-1An)=P (A1) P (A2 | A1) P (A3 | A1A2) ... P (An | A1A2...An-1)
(3) total probability formula
If 1. event group B1, B2 ... would meet B1, B2.... mutual exclusion two-by-two, i.e.,i≠
J, i, j=1,2 ..., and P (Bi) > 0, i=1,2 ...；
2.B1 ∪ B2 ∪ ... .=Ω, then claim event group B1, B2 ... it is a division of sample space Ω
If B1, B2 ... be a division of sample space Ω, A is any one event, then:
(4) Bayesian formula
It is solved the problems, such as with total probability formula on the contrary, Bayesian formula finds event on the basis of being built upon conditional probability
The reason of generation (under conditions of i.e. major issue A has occurred and that, the probability of the mishap Bi in segmentation), if B1, B2 ... it is sample
A division of this space Ω, then to any one event A (P (A) > 0), have
As three layers of trap relevant calculation formula are as follows:
Principle I: the expection number of success payzone be P (A)+P (B)+P (C)+..., therefore, correlation between payzone and this
One number is unrelated.
Principle II: when having correlation between payzone, all payzones can be when successfully probability be higher than non-correlation between payzone
Situation.
Principle III: dry-well probability of the dry-well probability of related payzone always greater than irrelevant payzone.
Principle IV: at least one layer of successful probability of evaluation is realized.
Table 1: probability comparing result table
The foregoing description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention.
Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, as defined herein
General Principle can be realized in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention.Therefore, of the invention
It is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein, and is to fit to and the principles and novel features disclosed herein phase one
The widest scope of cause.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method, characterized by the following steps:
(1) input of geological conditions probability value and management；
(2) reservoir correlation is arranged: storage layer dependencies are configured, the correlation each geological conditions is inputted,
Correlation size is 0-1；
(3) multilayer threat probability values calculate in the case where having calculated separately correlation and non-correlation:
It is calculated according to the probability value that formula when having correlation and non-correlation carries out related payzone, and calculates non-correlation simultaneously
When payzone probability value；
(4) result figure is drawn: a variety of combinations for having correlation and non-correlation are carried out graphical display；
(5) result report display: the every figure of the step (4) is shown in Grid table with report form, and is protected
It is saved as Excel file format；
(6) result is saved in database: the step (3) calculated result is saved in database.
2. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: step (1) tool
Body are as follows: according to the geological conditions information input probability value of trap.
3. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that: in the step (1)
The geological conditions information of trap include hydrocarbon source, reservoir, cap rock, trap, fortune it is poly- match this five the earth prime factor probability value or
It is several, range value [0,1].
4. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step (1) is also
It include: to provide typing and the modification administration page of geological conditions probability value information, and provide flexible mode of operation.
5. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method as claimed in claim 4, it is characterised in that: the flexible operation
Mode is that Excel is imported and directly paste is come in from other files.
6. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step (2), tool
Body are as follows: user directly can input or select, and system will be calculated correlation herein automatically after setting up correlation
Under property, influence of the setting value of this correlation to setting.
7. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: in the step (4)
Graphical format is .bmp, and .jpg is a kind of.
8. a kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: have when three layers of trap layer
Formula when correlation and non-correlation are as follows:
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810716014.1A CN108960626A (en) | 2018-07-03 | 2018-07-03 | A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810716014.1A CN108960626A (en) | 2018-07-03 | 2018-07-03 | A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN108960626A true CN108960626A (en) | 2018-12-07 |
Family
ID=64485262
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810716014.1A Pending CN108960626A (en) | 2018-07-03 | 2018-07-03 | A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN108960626A (en) |
Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106501854A (en) * | 2015-09-08 | 2017-03-15 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Oil gas drilling target geological quantifying risk evaluation methodology |
| CN106570047A (en) * | 2016-06-20 | 2017-04-19 | 杨玉海 | Intelligent management system generating system Hxcel technical method |
| CN107180293A (en) * | 2016-03-11 | 2017-09-19 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | A kind of horizontal assay method of geologic assessment towards exploration targets |
-
2018
- 2018-07-03 CN CN201810716014.1A patent/CN108960626A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106501854A (en) * | 2015-09-08 | 2017-03-15 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Oil gas drilling target geological quantifying risk evaluation methodology |
| CN107180293A (en) * | 2016-03-11 | 2017-09-19 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | A kind of horizontal assay method of geologic assessment towards exploration targets |
| CN106570047A (en) * | 2016-06-20 | 2017-04-19 | 杨玉海 | Intelligent management system generating system Hxcel technical method |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 盛秀杰 等: "圈闭评价中含油气性风险依赖性的概念、方法及应用", 《石油与天然气地质》 * |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Gan et al. | Privacy preserving utility mining: a survey | |
| CN103827826B (en) | Adaptively determining response time distribution of transactional workloads | |
| CN104199832A (en) | Financial network unusual transaction community finding method based on information entropy | |
| CN104518905A (en) | Fault locating method and fault locating device | |
| CN107944705B (en) | Full-end reliability calculation method for dividing communication communities based on modularity | |
| CN109582714B (en) | Government affair item data processing method based on time attenuation association | |
| CN110351260A (en) | A kind of Intranet attack method for early warning, device and storage medium | |
| CN105183796A (en) | Distributed link prediction method based on clustering | |
| CN106033424A (en) | A data mining method and device | |
| Fu et al. | Online temporal-spatial analysis for detection of critical events in cyber-physical systems | |
| CN112422571A (en) | Method for carrying out exception alignment across multiple attribute networks | |
| CN104317794A (en) | Chinese feature word association pattern mining method based on dynamic project weight and system thereof | |
| Liu et al. | Spotting significant changing subgraphs in evolving graphs | |
| CN104794234B (en) | Data processing method and device for fellow peers' evaluation | |
| Arouri et al. | Bilevel optimization of well placement and control settings assisted by capacitance-resistance models | |
| Xu et al. | A New Method of Attribute Reduction Based On Information Quantity in An Incomplete System. | |
| CN108960626A (en) | A kind of multilayer Trap evaluation risk analysis method | |
| CN109086385A (en) | A kind of operation flow low frequency Behavior mining method based on Petri network | |
| Ugarte et al. | Computing skypattern cubes | |
| CN107870913A (en) | The high of effective time it is expected weight item collection method for digging, device and processing equipment | |
| CN104794120B (en) | A kind of mass seismic data takes out diversity method parallel | |
| CN106169085A (en) | Feature selection approach based on measure information | |
| CN114896460A (en) | Tracing graph data reduction method based on graph key structure | |
| CN104268270A (en) | Map Reduce based method for mining triangles in massive social network data | |
| CN105138926B (en) | The effective of sensitive information data hides guard method |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20181207 |
|
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |