CN108960542A - A kind of determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit - Google Patents
A kind of determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit Download PDFInfo
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- 239000000941 radioactive substance Substances 0.000 title claims abstract description 31
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 25
- 230000005855 radiation Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 28
- 230000006378 damage Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 20
- 238000000638 solvent extraction Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 abstract description 9
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 abstract description 6
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 abstract description 5
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 abstract description 3
- 230000032258 transport Effects 0.000 description 10
- 238000007726 management method Methods 0.000 description 5
- 206010028980 Neoplasm Diseases 0.000 description 3
- 201000011510 cancer Diseases 0.000 description 3
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 3
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- 230000002285 radioactive effect Effects 0.000 description 3
- 208000027418 Wounds and injury Diseases 0.000 description 2
- 230000001149 cognitive effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 208000014674 injury Diseases 0.000 description 2
- 230000000149 penetrating effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 208000019155 Radiation injury Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 229910052770 Uranium Inorganic materials 0.000 description 1
- 230000001154 acute effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000711 cancerogenic effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000000354 decomposition reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007123 defense Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000009795 derivation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 description 1
- 231100000518 lethal Toxicity 0.000 description 1
- 230000001665 lethal effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 231100000225 lethality Toxicity 0.000 description 1
- 230000007774 longterm Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000116 mitigating effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 231100001160 nonlethal Toxicity 0.000 description 1
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000002915 spent fuel radioactive waste Substances 0.000 description 1
- JFALSRSLKYAFGM-UHFFFAOYSA-N uranium(0) Chemical compound [U] JFALSRSLKYAFGM-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention belongs to probabilistic safety analysis technologies, and in particular to a kind of determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit.This method classifies to all kinds of packages and formulates risk target, determine that corresponding risk is subjected to boundary by building risk Metrics；The composition of the risk Metrics includes two dimensions, is radiation hazradial bundle consequence and contingency occurrence probability respectively, according to radiation hazradial bundle severity of consequence combination contingency occurrence probability, classification determines the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit.Present invention firstly provides the acceptable values (or target) for being suitable for radioactivity risk in transit should use risk Metrics form, by to the research in domestic and international relevant criterion to the dose threshold value of the acceptable degree of various types of radiation damage sequence, and used for reference both at home and abroad to the division methods of contingency occurrence probability desired value, it is final to propose to be suitable for the matrix framework that radioactive substance risk in transit is subjected to criterion.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to probabilistic safety analysis technologies, and in particular to a kind of acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit is sentenced
Determine method.
Background technique
It is directed to the risk management of nuclear facilities at present, many countries formulate some acceptable risks by research in succession in the world
Correlation criterion or target value.Especially in terms of nuclear power plant, U.S.'s core pipe meeting (NRC) takes the lead in studying by a large amount of second level PSA,
The probabilistic safety target that nuclear power plant is provided in research report SECY-01-0009 in 2001, is put forward for the first time the operation of reactor
Security target should reach:
● the core damage frequency (CDF) of every heap year operation is less than 10-4；
● the radioactivity of every heap year operation largely discharges frequency (LERF) less than 10 in early days-5
Executed npp safety goal decomposition is two auxiliary security targets (also known as probabilistic safety target).Reactor core
Damage frequency (CDF) is the index of nuclear power plant's reflection nuclear power plant system major accident safety, and a large amount of early stage radioactivity releases
Frequency (LERF) can be considered nuclear power plant's major accident prevention and alleviate index, the two indexs be with nuclear power plant's depth defense and
The security system reliability of accident mitigation is consistent.NRC research report thinks, using CDF and LERF as reflection nuclear power plant peace
Complete horizontal security target index is suitable.
Similar to NRC, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) equally uses core damage frequency (CDF) and the big rule of radioactivity
Mould release frequency (LERF) the two indexs are used to formulate the probabilistic safety target of nuclear power plant's operation, and in the INSAG- of its publication
Similar suggestion is given to the security target of nuclear power plant in 12 [5].The thought of npp safety target has gradually been each at present
Nuclear power state receives and adopts, and nuclear power plant improves its design concept and operational safety is horizontal for instructing.
Radioactive substance transportation safety field risk guides the exploration of aspect relatively fewer, in its risk acceptability and
Also have not seen that related research result is issued in terms of probabilistic safety target making in the world.China is in the analysis of radioactivity transportation safety
It is more to carry out damage sequence estimation according to determining method of discussing, risk analysis also rests on the sxemiquantitative stage.Trace it to its cause one
Aspect is because reliability data basis is short of, and more important reason is then the acceptable standard due to lacking radioactivity risk in transit
Then, it is also difficult to do it further decision judgement even if providing corresponding risk level.In addition, different type radioactivity package
The probability and its radiation consequence very different that different severity accidents occur simply apply the single probabilistic safety mesh of nuclear power plant
Target form is unsuitable.Therefore, carry out research that degree acceptable to risk in transit is studied and judged as early as possible just in time.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of determination methods of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit, are allowed to more suitable
Risk management for radioactive substance transport.
Technical scheme is as follows: a kind of determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit passes through structure
Risk Metrics are built, classifies to all kinds of packages and formulates risk target, determine that corresponding risk is subjected to boundary；The risk Metrics
Constituting includes two dimensions, is radiation hazradial bundle consequence and contingency occurrence probability respectively, according to radiation hazradial bundle severity of consequence
In conjunction with contingency occurrence probability, classification determines the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit.
Further, the determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit as described above, wherein use accident spoke
Penetrate partitioning standards of the dosage as radiation hazradial bundle severity degree.
Further, the radiation hazradial bundle consequence is using dosage suffered by the over-the-counter public as index, when accident dose of radiation H≤
It is minor accident consequence when 3mSv；It is medium damage sequence as accident dose of radiation 3mSv < H≤100mSv；When accident spoke
It is major accident consequence when penetrating dosage H > 100mSv.
Further, the determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit as described above, wherein the accident
Probability of happening P point is level Four, 10-6>P、10-4>P≥10-6、10-2>P≥10-4、10-1>P≥10-2, respectively correspond different accidents
Incidence expectation: almost impossible, very unlikely, unlikely, possible.
Further, the determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit as described above, wherein for slight thing
Therefore consequence, 10-1>P≥10-2Boundary is subjected to for risk；For medium damage sequence, 10-2>P≥10-4Side is subjected to for risk
Boundary；For major accident consequence, 10-4>P≥10-6Boundary is subjected to for risk.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: the present invention is different from the safety feature of nuclear power plant for radioactive substance transport,
In conjunction with the characteristics of radioactivity transport, proposes to classify to radioactivity package and formulate the thought of risk target, be put forward for the first time and be suitable for
The acceptable value (or target) of radioactivity risk in transit should use risk Metrics form, by right in domestic and international relevant criterion
The research of the dose threshold value of the acceptable degree of various types of radiation damage sequence, and used for reference both at home and abroad to contingency occurrence probability desired value
Division methods, it is final to propose to be suitable for the matrix framework that radioactive substance risk in transit is subjected to criterion.The present invention, which has filled up, puts
The blank of penetrating property matter transportation security fields risk acceptable degree and probabilistic safety target making method, can be objective and accurate
Determine that the risk of all kinds of radioactive substance transports is subjected to boundary.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in detail below with reference to embodiment.
Although there is many-sided difference between different heap-type nuclear power plant, since reactor facility is set in overall process system
Certain comparativity is still had in terms of meter theory and damage sequence source item size, therefore single safe mesh is used to nuclear power plant
Target form carries out guidance to its operation risk and management is feasible and suitable.
But radioactive substance is transported, it is necessary to which on the one hand the characteristics of considering radioactive substance transportation safety is radioactivity
Transportation safety relies primarily on the inherent safety of shipping container；More important point is all kinds of radiation for loading different contents
Source item and damage sequence difference between property package is huge, and such as: uranium ore shipping accident is more more minor than radioactive source shipping accident,
And spentnuclear fuel shipping accident is again seriously much than radioactive source shipping accident.It therefore, is very to the risk management of radioactivity package
For difficulty between single risk target is used different package types, this point is that radioactivity transport is different from existing reflection nuclear power factory atmosphere
The horizontal security target in danger.
And risk Metrics mode is used, classify to all kinds of packages and formulate risk target, according to different severities of injuries, knot
Accident rate is closed, it should be the thought of more particularly suitable radioactivity risk in transit management that classification, which determines its risk acceptability,.
The present invention is to classify to formulate the thought of risk acceptability based on radioactive substance package, is transported in conjunction with radioactivity
Defeated feature is studied by the dose threshold value to the acceptable degree both at home and abroad to different degrees of radiation accident consequence, and to accident
The division methods of probability of happening desired value, the final risk Metrics structure for proposing the acceptable judgement of risk for radioactivity transport
Frame.
Classify according to above-mentioned package and formulate the thought of risk target, constructing risk Metrics and can delimiting different risks can connect
It is spent.Two dimensions that matrix is constituted are respectively radiation hazradial bundle consequence and accident probability.
Accident harm generallys use the indexs such as money, life to state.Due to changing to different classes of loss and money
The extremely difficult unification of calculation relationship, this gives economical as measurement scale and brings difficulty.Therefore have by severity of human loss
Better popularity, such as death toll.In terms of defining radiation risk, lethality is also a kind of common index.But it considers
Long term carcinogenic effect specific to radiation injury only considers " acute death " consequence and ignores its human loss effect, with other
It is not conservative way that risk, which is made comparisons,.Certainly how to consider there are multiple related notions in the world in terms of " Cancer death ",
Such as: can the lethal cancer probability of attribution, non-lethal cancer probability-weighted, serious hereditary effect probability-weighted, but factors weighting draw
The uncertainty entered is difficult to measure.It therefore, is most directly as the partitioning standards of severity using accident dose of radiation
Mode.Dose of radiation basis in terms of public participation is poor, but it is advantageous that the index be easy to through crash analysis and
Prediction directly obtains, the comparison of radiation risk when being more advantageous to Major Decision-Making.Damage sequence is intended being divided into serious, medium and slight
Three-level severity of injuries formulates dose threshold value, and using dosage suffered by the over-the-counter public as index.To the dose threshold value of major accident
100mSv is taken, is referred in national standard GB 6249-2011 to the public of planning restricted area outer boundary under limiting fault in entire thing
Therefore suffered dosage controlling value in the duration；3mSv is taken to minor accident dose of radiation upper limit value, then is pacified according to IAEA correlation
To type A package, its Radiological Consequences is still acceptable as derived from condition after badly damaged in full standard.
In terms of accident probability grade, external division methods are more, and form certain common recognition；Carry out in this respect in China
Research it is seldom.Accident probability is divided into level Four by risk in transit matrix in the present invention: 10-6>P、10-4>P≥10-6、10-2>P≥
10-4、10-1>P≥10-2.Respectively correspond different accident rate expectations: almost impossible, very unlikely (to be equivalent to and set
Count basis accident), be less likely, may.What the conventional cognitive in this probability hierarchical mode and China was consistent with.
The risk Metrics to radioactive substance transport have been given in Table 1 according to Such analysis.In a matrix according to difference
The obtained accident risk of the corresponding probability of damage sequence gives corresponding risk and is subjected to boundary.In fact, every in matrix
What a kind of risk class provided is all a section risk level, this is because in view of special caused by different shipping accidents
Difference present in social influence, it is still necessary to which policymaker specifically judges.
Table 1 is to the acceptable risk Metrics determined of radioactive substance risk in transit
The present invention is mainly to propose a kind of thinking to the risk acceptance form for how quantifying to formulate radioactive substance transport,
It should be using such as the huge radioactive substance package of potential risk difference: the determination method of risk Metrics various dimensions, without
Preferably indiscriminately imitate the single probabilistic safety mesh calibration method formulated nuclear power plant.
The Risk Cutoffs proposed in table 1 are to use for reference existing domestic and international related data, and combine to China's amount transport risk
The reference that the result of evaluation provides.Therefore, the acceptable degree bounds provided in table 1 an only recommended value, is not construed as pair
How the limitation of technical solution of the present invention finally determines the approval in the public and industry to radiation risk acceptable thresholds, also needs
Want the support of more basic scientific research results and the identification of subsequent statutory standard.
Such as: for major accident, Risk Cutoffs delimited with reference to GB6249.GB6249 is to " limiting fault " accident probability
It is defined as 10-6~10-4The extremely low accident of the frequency in/heap year, the consequence for occurring limiting fault are the " public on non-residential area boundary
The effective dose that may be subject within the accident duration of the public should control in 2h and on planning restricted area outer boundary after accident
In 0.1Sv or less " it is acceptable, corresponding risk level is 10-7~10-5Sv/, therefore as to major accident in table 1
Risk is subjected to boundary.
For another example to minor accident, such damage sequence is smaller in terms of public cognitive, and risk acceptable level ought to
Compare major accident wants high several magnitudes, and the frequency even at " may occur " is also receptible.Correspondence is provided in table 1
The risk level of " may occur " frequency minor accident is 3 × 10-5~3 × 10-4Sv/.In the past to China's radioactive substance
In transport evaluation, the risk level that may bring the ordinary accident of a certain amount of controllable undue exposure of derivation is fallen in mostly
The section.But if in view of being often the hidden danger for being further formed more major accident consequence there are upper frequency minor accident,
And compatriots are to the sensibility of radioactive accident.Therefore the risk range of the minor accident under " may occur " frequency is fixed tentatively and is
Acceptable boundary level is also that one kind conservatively selects.
Obviously, various changes and modifications can be made to the invention without departing from essence of the invention by those skilled in the art
Mind and range.If in this way, belonging to the model of the claims in the present invention and its equivalent technology to these modifications and changes of the present invention
Within enclosing, then the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit, it is characterised in that: right by constructing risk Metrics
Risk target is formulated in all kinds of package classification, determines that corresponding risk is subjected to boundary；The composition of the risk Metrics includes two
Dimension is radiation hazradial bundle consequence and contingency occurrence probability respectively, occurs according to radiation hazradial bundle severity of consequence combination accident
Probability, classification determine the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit.
2. the determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that: use thing
Therefore partitioning standards of the dose of radiation as radiation hazradial bundle severity degree.
3. the determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that: described
Radiation hazradial bundle consequence is using dosage suffered by the over-the-counter public as index, is minor accident consequence as accident dose of radiation H≤3mSv；
It is medium damage sequence as accident dose of radiation 3mSv < H≤100mSv；It is tight as accident dose of radiation H > 100mSv
Weight damage sequence.
4. the determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit as claimed in claim 3, it is characterised in that: described
Contingency occurrence probability P point is level Four, 10-6>P、10-4>P≥10-6、10-2>P≥10-4、10-1>P≥10-2, respectively correspond different
Accident rate expectation: almost impossible, very unlikely, unlikely, possible.
5. the determination method of the acceptable degree of radioactive substance risk in transit as claimed in claim 4, it is characterised in that: for light
Micro- damage sequence, 10-1>P≥10-2Boundary is subjected to for risk；For medium damage sequence, 10-2>P≥10-4It can be connect for risk
By boundary；For major accident consequence, 10-4>P≥10-6Boundary is subjected to for risk.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110276473A (en) * | 2019-05-22 | 2019-09-24 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | A kind of optimization method and system of fcf emergency resources |
| CN112633790A (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2021-04-09 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | Method for defining accident response boundary under fire accident situation of radioactive substance transportation |
| CN113393014A (en) * | 2021-04-20 | 2021-09-14 | 中国核电工程有限公司 | Method and device for dividing nuclear power plant smoke plume emergency plan zone |
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| CN104181575A (en) * | 2013-05-21 | 2014-12-03 | 环境保护部核与辐射安全中心 | Muon imaging method and vehicle-mounted radioactive material monitoring system |
| CN105160514A (en) * | 2015-07-10 | 2015-12-16 | 辽宁成远爆破工程有限公司 | Public security integrated management system and public security integrated management method |
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2017
- 2017-05-18 CN CN201710350425.9A patent/CN108960542A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104181575A (en) * | 2013-05-21 | 2014-12-03 | 环境保护部核与辐射安全中心 | Muon imaging method and vehicle-mounted radioactive material monitoring system |
| CN105160514A (en) * | 2015-07-10 | 2015-12-16 | 辽宁成远爆破工程有限公司 | Public security integrated management system and public security integrated management method |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110276473A (en) * | 2019-05-22 | 2019-09-24 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | A kind of optimization method and system of fcf emergency resources |
| CN112633790A (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2021-04-09 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | Method for defining accident response boundary under fire accident situation of radioactive substance transportation |
| CN112633790B (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2022-05-20 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | Method for defining accident response boundary under situation of radioactive substance transportation fire accident |
| CN113393014A (en) * | 2021-04-20 | 2021-09-14 | 中国核电工程有限公司 | Method and device for dividing nuclear power plant smoke plume emergency plan zone |
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