CN108875214A - A kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution - Google Patents
A kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution Download PDFInfo
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- CN108875214A CN108875214A CN201810630640.9A CN201810630640A CN108875214A CN 108875214 A CN108875214 A CN 108875214A CN 201810630640 A CN201810630640 A CN 201810630640A CN 108875214 A CN108875214 A CN 108875214A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution, are related to a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life.It is mainly included the following steps that：(1) using the computer for supporting minitab, by the storage tank bottom plate corrosion data data input being collected into software, statistics of extremes is carried out using maximum value or minimum value of the minitab software to Corrosion of Tanks depth, establish relevant Statistic analysis models, the method of applied statistics obtains the estimated value of maximum extreme value or minimum extreme value, in this, as the foundation of assessment；(2) it according to maximum the extreme value distribution and probability statistics, derives storage tank residual Life Calculation formula, establishes the I type Extreme maximum distribution prediction and evaluation method of Gembel of remaining life；(3) corresponding storage tank remaining life is found out respectively under 0.99,0.999 and 0.9999 reliability.A kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution provided by the invention, has many advantages, such as easily operated, at low cost, and the maintenance and determining time between overhauls(TBO) to storage tank have important reference value.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of prediction technique of storage tank remaining life, applied to being related to storing up under fatigue stress and corrosive environment
The maintenance and replacement of tank belong to safe technology of pressure vessel field by Gumbel the extreme value distribution forecast assessment remaining life.
Background technique
With the development of progress and the petrochemical industry of science and technology, storage tank is being produced as a kind of important storage equipment
Increasingly important role is played during product production, transport, storage etc..In-service storage tank is unavoidably there is defect, and one
As subject Cyclic Load, and worked in the environment of corrosion, be easily allowed to form corrosion default by corrosion.
Tank wall local reduction is in turn resulted in, the active strength of storage tank is reduced, shortens the service life of storage tank, therefore to the residue of storage tank
Service life Accurate Prediction is particularly significant.
Relevant criterion there is no for the detection country of overage military service storage tank, it is main at present to be detected by can opening, utilize ultrasound
The lossless detection methods such as wave, infiltration detect the positions such as storage tank bottom plate, siding and weld seam, and then judge the corrosion shape of storage tank
State and integrality.Although this method can judge whether storage tank meets the service condition of next cycle, storage tank is remained
Remaining service life and corrosion tendency are unpredictable.The present invention studies time-expired storage tank bottom plate corrosion point using probabilistic method
Cloth, and prediction and evaluation is carried out to storage tank bottom remaining life based on reliability theory, it is evaluation of running status and the maintenance of storage tank
Provide scientific basis with management, to carry out pre-emptive maintenace, to the maximum extent reduce corrosion failure leakage accident generation and
Casualties and property loss resulting from have important practical significance.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of invention is overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, and it is remaining to propose a kind of storage tank based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution
Life-span prediction method.Technical scheme is as follows.
A kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution includes the following steps：
Statistics of extremes is carried out using maximum value or minimum value of the minitab software to Corrosion of Tanks depth, is established relevant
Statistic analysis models, the method for applied statistics obtains the estimated value of maximum extreme value or minimum extreme value, in this, as the foundation of assessment.
The maximum corrosion depth of storage tank bottom plate corrosion obeys the distribution of I type of Gumbel.Assuming that a period of time inner storage tank bottom plate is most
Big corrosion depth is x, and cumulative distribution function is：
Wherein, F (x) indicates that maximum corrosion depth is no more than the probability of x；The stochastic variable of x expression maximum corrosion depth
(mm)；K indicates location parameter；η indicates scale parameter；R indicates reliability.
Entire storage tank bottom plate is divided into M region, the maximum corrosion depth that each region detection arrives is X1, X2..., Xn,
Corresponding mathematic expectaion and variance are respectively E (x) and D (x).
Introduce the coefficient of variation C an of corrosion depthx, it is known that corrosion allowance Δ (mm), the corruption of medium and environment to steel
Lose rate vx(year/mm), coefficient of variation Cx, it is desirable that reliability be R, then the serviceable bife T of storage tank be：
According to above-mentioned formula, R=99%, 999%, 9 999% are taken respectively, and the longevity can be used in the storage tank that can be acquired under different R
Life.
The remaining life T of storage tank1The service life run is subtracted equal to serviceable bife.
T1=T-T0 (8)
Wherein, T indicates the serviceable bife (year) of storage tank；T0Indicate the service life (year) that storage tank has been run.
Further, the application minitab software carries out maximum extreme value probability distribution statistical to maximum local erosion depth spot,
Obtain corrosion depth probability graph and corrosion depth histogram.
Further, the analysis method using the extreme value distribution studies the maximum corrosion depth of storage tank bottom plate.
Further, the coefficient of variation of the introducingRelational assumption by corrosion depth and time is linear.
Further, described by mathematic expectaion and variance, acquire the relationship of serviceable bife T and reliability R.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of prediction technique of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is to carry out maximum extreme value probability distribution statistical to Corrosion of Tanks depth data using minitab software in the present invention to obtain
The probability graph arrived；
Fig. 3 is to carry out maximum extreme value probability distribution statistical to Corrosion of Tanks depth data using minitab software in the present invention to obtain
The histogram arrived.
Specific embodiment
Below with reference to example, the present invention is described further.
Using A storage tank as research object, which was built at the bottom of nineteen ninety-five, and can opening detection has been carried out in 2005, and tank appearance is
1000m3, baseboard material Q235A, center plate design wall thickness is 6mm, and margin plate design wall thickness is 8mm.
Storage tank bottom plate is divided into 47 regions, point by point scanning is carried out to each region, therefrom finds out a maximum corrosion
Depth of defect, as the extreme value in the region, the set of these extreme values obeys the extreme value distribution.
When being detected due to storage tank, every block of center plate, margin plate and tank shell plate about detect 10 points, then store up
There are up to thousands of a detection datas on tank, for convenience, a maximum value is chosen in each subregion, it is rotten to form maximum part
Lose depth set.The maximum local erosion depth spot data of the storage tank are as shown in table 1.
The maximum local erosion depth spot of 1 storage tank of table
Maximum extreme value probability distribution statistical is carried out to the data in table 1 using minitab software, obtained probability graph is as schemed
Shown in 1.As can be seen from the figure these data point distributions are straight line, illustrate that these data can obey maximum pole well
Distribution value, corrosion depth histogram are as shown in Figure 2.
According to the regulation of API653, the minimum allowable wall thickness that the present invention chooses tank bottom is 1.27mm.Therefore corrosion allowance Δ
=nominal wall thickness-minimum allowable thickness, i.e. Δ=6-1.27=4.73.
μ can be obtained by counting to the corrosion data of table 1x=1.4362, σx=0.2892, then corrosion rate vxAnd variation lines
Number CxRespectively：
Wherein,Indicate the mean value (mm) of corrosion data in table 1；The serviceable bife (year) of T expression storage tank；μxIt indicates
The mean value of corrosion data in table 1；σxIndicate the standard deviation of corrosion data in table 1.
It can be tied according to formula (5)-formula (8) in the hope of storage tank bottom plate serviceable bife and remaining life under corresponding reliability
Fruit is as shown in table 2.
The remaining life of 2 storage tank of table
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that：For the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, various improvements and modifications may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, these improvements and modifications are also answered
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution, it is characterised in that include the following steps：
(1) statistics of extremes is carried out using maximum value or minimum value of the minitab software to Corrosion of Tanks depth, establishes relevant system
Analysis model is counted, the method for applied statistics obtains the estimated value of maximum extreme value or minimum extreme value, in this, as the foundation of assessment；
(2) maximum corrosion depth of storage tank bottom plate corrosion obeys the distribution of I type of Gumbel.Assuming that a period of time inner storage tank bottom plate is maximum
Corrosion depth is x, and cumulative distribution function is：
Wherein, F (x) indicates that maximum corrosion depth is no more than the probability of x；The stochastic variable of x expression maximum corrosion depth；K is indicated
Location parameter；η indicates scale parameter；R indicates reliability；
(3) entire storage tank bottom plate is divided into M region, the maximum corrosion depth that each region detection arrives is X1, X2..., Xn,
Corresponding mathematic expectaion and variance are respectively E (x) and D (x)：
(4) coefficient of variation C of a corrosion depth is introducedx, it is known that the corrosion rate of corrosion allowance Δ, medium and environment to steel
vx, coefficient of variation Cx, it is desirable that reliability be R, then the serviceable bife T of storage tank be：
(5) according to above-mentioned formula, R=99%, 999%, 9 999% are taken respectively, and the longevity can be used in the storage tank that can be acquired under different R
Life, then the remaining life of storage tank subtracts the service life run equal to serviceable bife.
2. a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution according to claim 1, feature
It is：Maximum extreme value probability distribution statistical is carried out to maximum local erosion depth spot using minitab software, it is general to obtain corrosion depth
Rate figure and corrosion depth histogram.
3. a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution according to claim 1, feature
It is：The maximum corrosion depth of storage tank bottom plate is studied using the analysis method of the extreme value distribution, the mathematic expectaion of the distribution
It is respectively with variance：
E (x)=μx=k+0.57722 η
4. a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution according to claim 1, feature
It is：The coefficient of variation of introducingRelational assumption by corrosion depth and time be it is linear, i.e.,
5. a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution according to claim 1, feature
It is：By mathematic expectaion and variance, the relational expression of serviceable bife T and reliability R are derived.
6. a kind of storage tank method for predicting residual useful life based on Gumbel the extreme value distribution according to claim 1, feature
It is：R=99%, 999%, 9 999% are taken respectively, and the storage tank serviceable bife under different R is：
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110942156A (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2020-03-31 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Heat exchanger group preventive maintenance method based on operation risk |
| CN111241723A (en) * | 2019-12-20 | 2020-06-05 | 山东特检鲁安工程技术服务有限公司 | Gas cylinder service life prediction method |
| CN113011638A (en) * | 2021-03-01 | 2021-06-22 | 中车大连机车研究所有限公司 | Locomotive radiator leakage rate prediction method |
| CN113626970A (en) * | 2020-05-08 | 2021-11-09 | 上海化学工业区公共管廊有限公司 | Method and system for evaluating corrosion residual life of common pipe gallery pipeline |
| CN115577578A (en) * | 2022-12-09 | 2023-01-06 | 中国空气动力研究与发展中心设备设计与测试技术研究所 | Method for safety assessment and service life prediction of selective laser melting plate |
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2018
- 2018-06-19 CN CN201810630640.9A patent/CN108875214A/en active Pending
Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110942156A (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2020-03-31 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Heat exchanger group preventive maintenance method based on operation risk |
| CN110942156B (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2022-12-02 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Heat exchanger group preventive maintenance method based on operation risk |
| CN111241723A (en) * | 2019-12-20 | 2020-06-05 | 山东特检鲁安工程技术服务有限公司 | Gas cylinder service life prediction method |
| CN113626970A (en) * | 2020-05-08 | 2021-11-09 | 上海化学工业区公共管廊有限公司 | Method and system for evaluating corrosion residual life of common pipe gallery pipeline |
| CN113626970B (en) * | 2020-05-08 | 2024-01-09 | 上海化学工业区公共管廊有限公司 | Method and system for evaluating corrosion residual life of public pipe gallery pipeline |
| CN113011638A (en) * | 2021-03-01 | 2021-06-22 | 中车大连机车研究所有限公司 | Locomotive radiator leakage rate prediction method |
| CN113011638B (en) * | 2021-03-01 | 2023-09-15 | 中车大连机车研究所有限公司 | Prediction method for leakage rate of locomotive radiator |
| CN115577578A (en) * | 2022-12-09 | 2023-01-06 | 中国空气动力研究与发展中心设备设计与测试技术研究所 | Method for safety assessment and service life prediction of selective laser melting plate |
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Application publication date: 20181123 |