CN108805742B - Method and device for evaluating electric energy substitution potential of user - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method and a device for evaluating the replacement potential of electric energy of a user, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining model variables according to the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and information of each user; substituting the model variable of the user into a pre-established electric energy user expansion model to evaluate the electric energy substitution potential of the user with unknown electric energy substitution potential; the technical scheme provided by the invention is used for promoting the replacement of the electric energy through big data analysis and application of the model, so that the evaluation of the potential of the replacement of the electric energy is more efficient and convenient, and the aim of differentiated marketing is fulfilled.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of electric energy user expansion, in particular to a method and a device for evaluating electric energy substitution potential of a user.
Background
With the rapid development of social economy in China, the problem of environmental pollution is increasingly serious, and the replacement of electric energy is more important.
At present, the electric energy replacement project of the power grid popularization is mainly completed through manual on-site visit, and the problem is very large in a manual on-site visit mode: first, the blindness of manual on-site visits is large, thus leading to low visiting efficiency; second, the user information obtained by manual interview cannot be integrated and shared.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method and a device for evaluating electric energy substitution potential of a user, which aim to deeply mine characteristics of the electric energy substitution user, so that the evaluation of the electric energy substitution potential of the user is more efficient and convenient, differential marketing is realized, the efficiency and the accuracy of electric energy substitution work are improved, and the economic benefit is improved.
The invention aims at adopting the following technical scheme:
In a method of evaluating a user's electrical energy replacement potential, the improvement comprising:
Determining model variables according to the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and information of each user;
evaluating the electric energy replacement potential of a user with unknown electric energy replacement potential according to a pre-established electric energy user expansion model;
the electric energy user expansion model is established according to model variables.
Preferably, the evaluating the power replacement potential of the user with unknown power replacement potential according to the pre-established power user expansion model includes:
Determining an electric energy user expansion value of a user according to the electric energy user expansion model;
The electric energy substitution potential of the user is inversely related to the electric energy user expansion value of the user.
Preferably, the electric energy user expansion model is determined according to the following formula:
In the above formula, cost is the electric energy user expansion value of the user, θ i is the variable coefficient of the ith model variable, x i is the ith model variable, i e [1, n ], n is the total number of model variables, y is whether the electric energy user has expansion potential, y=1 is the electric energy user has expansion potential, and y=0 is the electric energy user does not have expansion potential.
Preferably, the determining the model variable according to the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and the information of each user includes:
Acquiring the correlation between the electric energy substitution potential of the user with the known electric energy substitution potential and the information of each user by using a Pearson test method;
and if the correlation is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value, the user information is a model variable.
Further, the preset threshold is 0.05.
Preferably, the model variables include:
Industry field, age, industry background gas degree, enterprise background gas degree, capacity reduction rate, power supply voltage, user classification, user category, running capacity, real-time peak power index, daily load index, season load index and month peak power index.
In an apparatus for evaluating the potential for replacement of electrical energy by a user, the improvement comprising:
The determining unit is used for determining model variables according to the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and information of each user;
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the electric energy replacement potential of the user with unknown electric energy replacement potential according to a pre-established electric energy user expansion model;
the building unit is used for building the electric energy user expansion model according to model variables.
Preferably, the evaluation unit includes:
The determining module is used for determining the electric energy user expansion value of the user according to the electric energy user expansion model;
and the evaluation module is used for inversely correlating the electric energy substitution potential of the user with the electric energy user expansion value of the user.
Preferably, the establishing unit includes:
Determining an electric energy user expansion model according to the following steps:
In the above formula, cost is the electric energy user expansion value of the user, θ i is the variable coefficient of the ith model variable, x i is the ith model variable, i e [1, n ], n is the total number of model variables, y is whether the electric energy user has expansion potential, y=1 is the electric energy user has expansion potential, and y=0 is the electric energy user does not have expansion potential.
Preferably, the determining unit includes:
The acquisition module is used for acquiring the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and the information of each user by using a Pelson test method;
and the evaluation module is used for taking the user information as a model variable if the correlation is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value.
Further, the preset threshold is 0.05.
Preferably, the model variables include:
Industry field, age, industry background gas degree, enterprise background gas degree, capacity reduction rate, power supply voltage, user classification, user category, running capacity, real-time peak power index, daily load index, season load index and month peak power index.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, model variables are determined according to the correlation between the electric energy substitution potential of the user with the known electric energy substitution potential and the information of each user; substituting the model variable of the user into a pre-established electric energy user expansion model to evaluate the electric energy substitution potential of the user with unknown electric energy substitution potential; the pre-established electric energy user expansion model is established according to model variables. Based on the technical scheme provided by the invention, the electricity utilization characteristic of the electric energy substitution user can be deeply excavated, the technical support is improved for the electric energy substitution work, the efficiency of the electric energy substitution work is improved, the transformation cost of the electric energy substitution work is reduced, and the differentiated marketing is realized.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of assessing a user's electrical energy replacement potential in accordance with the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of industry analysis and domain partitioning in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of determining an electric energy user expansion model in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of determining model variables in an embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of the structure of an evaluation device for the potential of power substitution of a user according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of specific embodiments of the invention refers to the accompanying drawings.
For the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
The method for evaluating the electric energy substitution potential of the user provided by the invention, as shown in figure 1, comprises the following steps:
101. determining model variables according to electric energy substitution potential of users and information of each user
102. Evaluating the potential of the user for replacing electric energy according to a pre-established electric energy user expansion model
The electric energy user expansion model is established according to model variables.
For example, as shown in fig. 2, the electric energy user expansion model is built by adopting an industry-domain-user three-layer architecture. Firstly, analyzing the basic condition of the electric energy replacement industry, following the 'two-eight principle', dividing users into 19 fields according to the difference of energy consumption equipment used by different industries and the difference of production periods and production characteristics of each industry, and respectively modeling each field.
Obtaining user information from the power marketing system, wherein the user information comprises: and analyzing the basic information, the production and management information, the electricity consumption characteristics and the electricity consumption habit characteristics of the enterprise, and analyzing the information of each user.
Wherein, the analysis of the basic information of the enterprise comprises: the production equipment, the production period and the electricity consumption characteristics of products used in different industries are different, and the factors influence the energy consumption and the energy consumption rules of the different industries; the energy consumption devices used by enterprises of different ages in the same industry under the influence of policies have time period differences.
Analysis of enterprise production management information includes: whether the scenic spot of enterprise operation directly affects the subsequent production plan of the enterprise in the willingness of equipment transformation, the opinion of the enterprise with better operation condition on electric energy substitution is relatively higher; secondly, the recent capacity reduction of the enterprise may also affect the possibility of replacing the electric energy of the enterprise, for example, an enterprise having a relatively high capacity reduction ratio recently may use other energy sources to replace the electric energy recently if the production progress of the enterprise is not put on hold and the capacity is not reduced.
Analysis of enterprise electrical characteristics includes: user category, supply voltage, power usage category, and operating capacity.
Analysis of enterprise electricity habit characteristics: the electricity consumption habit of the enterprise is obtained according to the data of peak-valley electricity consumption and load electricity consumption of the enterprise.
The evaluating the electric energy substitution potential of the user according to the pre-established electric energy user expansion model comprises the following steps:
Determining an electric energy user expansion value of a user according to the electric energy user expansion model;
The electric energy substitution potential of the user is inversely related to the electric energy user expansion value of the user.
The electric energy user expansion model is determined according to the following formula:
In the above formula, cost is the electric energy user expansion value of the user, θ i is the variable coefficient of the ith model variable, x i is the ith model variable, i e [1, n ], n is the total number of model variables, y is whether the electric energy user has expansion potential, y=1 is the electric energy user has expansion potential, and y=0 is the electric energy user does not have expansion potential.
For example, as shown in FIG. 3, according to a logic functionAnd boundary form of linear classificationDetermining a predictive functionAccording to predictive functionDetermining an electric energy user expansion model: Wherein z is the slope of the logic function, θ i is the coefficient of variation of the ith model variable, x i is the ith model variable, i e [1, n ], n is the total number of model variables, y is whether the electric energy user has expansion potential, y=1 is the electric energy user has expansion potential, and y=0 is the electric energy user does not have expansion potential.
And selecting the electric energy user expansion model corresponding to the minimum value in the loss function values of the electric energy user expansion model as a model for evaluating the electric energy substitution potential of the user.
The electric energy user expansion model Cost is used for verifying the applicability of the electric energy user expansion model, determining whether a user has the potential of electric power expansion, and the Cost function is the maximum likelihood estimation for representing the replacement potential, wherein the smaller the Cost function value is, the higher the electric energy replacement potential is.
The data relationship between the user and the model is stored in a Boolean manner.
As shown in fig. 4, the determining model variables according to the power substitution potential of the user and the information of each user includes:
Acquiring the correlation between the electric energy substitution potential of the user and information of each user by using a Pearson test method;
and if the correlation is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value, the user information is a model variable.
Further, the preset threshold is 0.05.
Preferably, the model variables include:
Industry field, age, industry background gas degree, enterprise background gas degree, capacity reduction rate, power supply voltage, user classification, user category, running capacity, real-time peak power index, daily load index, season load index and month peak power index.
Determining the model variables through analysis of enterprise basic information, enterprise production and management information, enterprise electricity consumption characteristics and enterprise electricity consumption habit characteristics and correlation between the electric energy substitution potential of the user and information of each user, wherein the determination comprises the following steps: industry field, age, industry background gas degree, enterprise background gas degree, capacity reduction rate, power supply voltage, user classification, user category, running capacity, real-time peak power index, daily load index, season load index and month peak power index.
In an apparatus for evaluating the potential for replacement of electrical energy by a user, the improvement comprising:
The determining unit is used for determining model variables according to the electric energy substitution potential of the user and the information of each user;
The evaluation unit is used for evaluating the electric energy substitution potential of the user according to a pre-established electric energy user expansion model;
the building unit is used for building the electric energy user expansion model according to model variables.
Preferably, the evaluation unit includes:
The determining module is used for determining the electric energy user expansion value of the user according to the electric energy user expansion model;
and the evaluation module is used for inversely correlating the electric energy substitution potential of the user with the electric energy user expansion value of the user.
Preferably, the establishing unit includes:
Determining an electric energy user expansion model according to the following steps:
In the above formula, cost is the electric energy user expansion value of the user, θ i is the variable coefficient of the ith model variable, x i is the ith model variable, i e [1, n ], n is the total number of model variables, y is whether the electric energy user has expansion potential, y=1 is the electric energy user has expansion potential, and y=0 is the electric energy user does not have expansion potential.
Preferably, the determining unit includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the correlation between the electric energy substitution potential of the user and the information of each user by using a Pelson test method;
and the evaluation module is used for taking the user information as a model variable if the correlation is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value.
Further, the preset threshold is 0.05.
Preferably, the model variables include:
Industry field, age, industry background gas degree, enterprise background gas degree, capacity reduction rate, power supply voltage, user classification, user category, running capacity, real-time peak power index, daily load index, season load index and month peak power index.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical aspects of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, it should be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the specific embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is intended to be covered by the claims.
Claims (6)
1. A method of assessing a user's potential for replacement of electrical energy, the method comprising:
Determining model variables according to the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and information of each user;
evaluating the electric energy replacement potential of a user with unknown electric energy replacement potential according to a pre-established electric energy user expansion model;
The electric energy user expansion model is established according to model variables;
the model variables include: capacity reduction rate, power supply voltage, user classification, user category, running capacity, real-time peak power index, daily load index, season load index and month peak power;
The model variables further include: industry field, age, industry scenery and enterprise scenery;
The evaluating the electric energy replacement potential of the user with unknown electric energy replacement potential according to the pre-established electric energy user expansion model comprises the following steps:
Determining an electric energy user expansion value of a user according to the electric energy user expansion model;
The electric energy substitution potential of the user is inversely related to the electric energy user expansion value of the user;
the electric energy user expansion model is determined according to the following formula:
In the above formula, cost is the electric energy user expansion value of the user, θ i is the variable coefficient of the ith model variable, x i is the ith model variable, i e [1, n ], n is the total number of model variables, y is whether the electric energy user has expansion potential, y=1 is the electric energy user has expansion potential, and y=0 is the electric energy user does not have expansion potential.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining model variables based on correlations between power replacement potential of users of known power replacement potential and information of each user comprises:
Acquiring the correlation between the electric energy substitution potential of the user with the known electric energy substitution potential and the information of each user by using a Pearson test method;
and if the correlation is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value, the user information is a model variable.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the preset threshold is 0.05.
4. An apparatus for evaluating the potential for replacement of electrical energy by a user, the apparatus comprising:
The determining unit is used for determining model variables according to the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and information of each user;
the evaluation unit is used for evaluating the electric energy replacement potential of the user with unknown electric energy replacement potential according to a pre-established electric energy user expansion model;
the building unit is used for building the electric energy user expansion model according to model variables;
The model variables include: at least one of the above data of industry field, age, industry scenery, enterprise scenery, capacity reduction rate, power supply voltage, user classification, user category, running capacity, real-time peak power index, daily load index, quaternary load index and monthly peak power index;
the evaluation unit includes:
The determining module is used for determining the electric energy user expansion value of the user according to the electric energy user expansion model;
the evaluation module is used for inversely correlating the electric energy substitution potential of the user with the electric energy user expansion value of the user;
The establishing unit includes:
Determining an electric energy user expansion model according to the following steps:
In the above formula, cost is the electric energy user expansion value of the user, θ i is the variable coefficient of the ith model variable, x i is the ith model variable, i e [1, n ], n is the total number of model variables, y is whether the electric energy user has expansion potential, y=1 is the electric energy user has expansion potential, and y=0 is the electric energy user does not have expansion potential.
5. The apparatus of claim 4, wherein the determining unit comprises:
The acquisition module is used for acquiring the correlation between the electric energy replacement potential of the user with the known electric energy replacement potential and the information of each user by using a Pelson test method;
and the evaluation module is used for taking the user information as a model variable if the correlation is smaller than or equal to a preset threshold value.
6. The apparatus of claim 5, wherein the preset threshold is 0.05.
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