CN108764721A - A kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis methods, including：It establishes State Grid's investment environment assessment models and obtains single State Grid's investment environment assessed value；It establishes transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model and obtains transnational bilateral relation correction factor；Transnational power interconnection engineering economy is analyzed and calculates networking project economic factor；The coefficient of colligation of networking project is obtained according to State Grid's investment environment assessed value, transnational bilateral relation correction factor and networking project economic factor, the present invention will carry out comprehensive analysis after State Grid's investment environment, transnational bilateral relation and networking project economy three's quantification, previous three isolated the shortcomings that carrying out transnational power interconnection engineering qualitative analysis has been broken away from, the science reference of transnational power interconnection engineering decision can be provided from comprehensive angle.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electrical engineering technical fields, more particularly, to a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis side
Method.
Background technology
When carrying out decision to the investment of transnational power interconnection engineering, to be related to various factors and carry out comprehensive grind
Study carefully, is broadly divided into three parts.
When State Grid's investment environment, since the Electricity Investment development potentiality that each region is contained is different, electricity
Power investment environment is the important consideration for being related to a country and whether having investment value, stable Electricity Investment environmental benefits
In stable return and income, project risk is reduced.This part is needed from the demand of transnational networking project, to each state
The Electricity Investment environment of family is established methodology opinion and is studied.
Second is that whether transnational bilateral relation analysis, geopolitics and transnational relation well realize that electric power interconnects
Basis, transnational networking and electricity trading need higher mutual reliability between country, it is accordingly required in particular to which government plays actively promote wherein
Effect.Such as north America region, power networking and electricity trading between America & Canada are also based on two countries for a long time
Friendly relation and deepen continuously, it is also to be closed in regional economy that the Great Mekong river sub-region electric power of the propulsion that deepens continuously, which interconnects,
Make and formed under integrated frame, thus needs in the research for carrying out transnational networking project, fully consider transnational relation
Influence, how to realize quantification analysis offer science result of calculation.
Third, the economy of networking project, economy is the basis whether power engineering has feasibility.Due to different states
The difference of resources supplIes, geographical environment, economic condition, manpower condition, the tax policy, the electrovalence policy of family etc., determines difference
The cost difference of nation-building project of transmitting and converting electricity is larger, for transnational networking project, needs on the basis of cost, root
According to the specific internal rate of return (IRR), compare transmission of electricity valence, to net electricity price competitiveness etc., specifically i.e. according to transmission of electricity valence and to net electricity
Valence carries out electricity price analysis on competitive, and economic analysis judgement is carried out to engineering proposal.
However, the main deficiency of existing analytical technology is, first, not combining the Electricity Investment environment of every country
To in networking project analysis, and lack quantitative analysis, conventional art is either carried out from the angle of state credit sovereignty
Environmental Studies are lack of pertinence power interconnection engineering, are not suitable for the research of power interconnection engineering, or to Electricity Investment
What environment carried out is qualitative analysis, cannot meet the requirement of accurate decision.Second is that not by the influence science of transnational bilateral relation
Ground is considered in networking project analysis, equally lacks quantitative study, conventional art is often based on expert to transnational relation and sentences
Disconnected or isolated cases analyses cannot form the entire analysis of transnational relation in one period, and how to transnational
What the quantitative study of net engineering progress transnational relation was missing from.Third, State Grid's investment environment, transnational bilateral relation and networking
Engineering economy three is often to isolate, and lacks research means three and combines well and studies, cannot be from comprehensive
The angle of system carries out decision to networking project.
Invention content
For the disadvantages described above of the prior art, the present invention by State Grid's investment environment, transnational bilateral relation and networking work
Organic synthesis analysis is carried out after journey economy three's quantification, has broken away from the isolated transnational power interconnection engineering of progress of previous three
The shortcomings that qualitative analysis, can provide the science reference of transnational power interconnection engineering decision from comprehensive angle.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method, packet
It includes：
It establishes State Grid's investment environment assessment models and obtains single State Grid's investment environment assessed value；
It establishes transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model and obtains transnational bilateral relation correction factor；
Transnational power interconnection engineering economy is analyzed and calculates networking project economic factor；
According to State Grid's investment environment assessed value, transnational bilateral relation correction factor and networking project economic factor
The coefficient of colligation of networking project is obtained, science reference is provided for networking project decision.
Wherein, described the step of obtaining single State Grid's investment environment assessed value, is：
(a) it is basic data, total m first class index and n two-level index with the bottom index of single country, establishes state
Family's electric power investment environment assessment models；
(b) based on State Grid's investment environment assessment models, the bottom index basis of k-th of country is compiled
Data, total m first class index and n two-level index；
(c) i-th of two-level index of k-th of country is normalized, method is：If i-th of two-level index value
For Ci, the normalized value of i-th of two-level index is I (Ci)=Ci/max(Ci)；
(d) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate separately the weighted value W of n two-level indexi, method is：Firstly generate judgement square
Battle array B=(bij)n×n, for judgment matrix B, calculating meets B × W=λmax× W, wherein λmaxFor the Maximum characteristic root of B, W is pair
It should be in λmaxRegular feature vector, the component W of WiIt is the weighted value of index；
(e) the Electricity Investment environmental assessment of k-th of country is calculated in normalization data and weighted value based on index
Value Sk, expression formula is：
Wherein, I (CI, k) it is k-th of i-th national of two-level index normalized value, WiFor the power of i-th of two-level index
Weight values；
(f) step b~step e is repeated to global All Countries respectively, the electric power for obtaining the country of global All Countries is thrown
Provide environmental assessment value Sk。
Preferably, State Grid's investment environment assessment models include 6 first class index, respectively steady politics, macro
See economic, policies and regulations, market trade, base support, social safety.
Preferably, State Grid's investment environment assessment models further include 50 two-level index, and respectively government stablizes
Property, open conflict, intramural conflict, corruption is military to influence, religion influence, ethnic situation, democracy degree, and official's quality is public
Mechanism efficiency, government policy transparency, inflation, World Bank's GDP per capita, GDP speedups, GDP per capita speedup, per capita state
The people take in GNI, national income percapita GNI speedups, Macroeconomic Stability, legal effect, intelligent grid policy, clean energy resource
Policy, credit information sophistication, credit register sophistication, and judicial process quality is judicial independent, renewable investment risk, electricity
Power investment risk, foreign market access, credit extending channel, foreign capitals participate in openness, and inlet and outlet account for GDP ratios, and foreign trader directly throws only
Money accounts for GDP ratios, register of company's program, Transaction Information extent of disclosure, company information degrees of overtness, Investor Protection dynamics, traffic
The availability and quality of infrastructure, the availability and quality of transport services, the availability of information general technology, journey of receiving an education
Degree, skilled worker's training service, labour market efficiency, the utilizability of state-of-the-art technology meet the financial service of business demand, obtain
The easness that must be provided a loan, security risk index, personal safety, refugee's number, crime rate, police's law enforcement dynamics.
Wherein, described the step of obtaining transnational bilateral relation correction factor, is：
(a) it by considering transnational both sides' trade interaction degree and both sides' political relation, collects in transnational bilateral certain time limit
Diplomatic activities, extracting influences the key factor of transnational bilateral relation, establishes transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model；
(b) by the key factor in the transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model of qualitative assessment, to national i and state
Different key factors carry out standard assignment in transnational bilateral relation between family j, using key factor cumulative method, obtain transnational double
Frontier juncture system total score computation model, expression formula are：
Rij=Rij1+Rij2+Rij3+……+Rijn
Wherein RijnBetween national i and country j in transnational bilateral relation different key factors standard assignment, RijFor state
Transnational bilateral relation total score between family i and country j；
(c) according to transnational bilateral relation total score R between national i and country jij, normalized calculates country i and state
The transnational relation correction factor CO of networking project between family jij, expression formula is：
COij=Rij/max(Rij)
RijThe transnational bilateral relation total score between national i and country j, COijIt networks between national i and country j work
The transnational relation correction factor of journey.
Preferably, the key factor for influencing transnational bilateral relation is respectively personage's rank of bilateral activities, region class
Not, access level, protocol level, event level, meeting rank, negative event rank, one kind or more in behavior significance level
Kind.
Wherein, described the step of analyzing transnational power interconnection engineering economy, is：
(a) power transmission engineering investment estimate is analyzed, and power transmission engineering investment collects mating exchange by DC power transmission line, power supply
Engineering is calculated separately with the mating construction investment three parts that exchange of receiving end current conversion station；
(b) net electricity price investment estimate is arrived to analyze, including：
1) calculating of net electricity price is arrived, includes the calculating of rate for incorporation into the power network, the line loss electricity price of transmission of electricity valence, embodiment transmission losses, arrives
Net electricity price is rate for incorporation into the power network, transmission of electricity valence, the addition of line loss electricity price；
2) analysis on competitive for arriving net electricity price, using sending end rate for incorporation into the power network estimation result, to transmission of electricity valence and line loss electricity price into
Row measuring and calculating show that the receiving end of transnational power networking transmission of electricity to net electricity price, is compared with receiving end stake electrovalence, analyzes net electricity
The competitiveness of valence；
3) when transnational power networking power transmission engineering across it is multinational when, to net electricity price should by electricity price along plus principle calculate, need
Consider country variant electric power import tariff when across border；
4) when a few states are there are when relay current conversion station in transnational power networking power transmission engineering, in the electricity price of the state calculates,
The rate for incorporation into the power network of electric power is flat about the weighting of respective electricity more than relay current conversion station the last period direct current of the state to net electricity price and the national wealth
After, the rate for incorporation into the power network as state's latter section of direct current of relay current conversion station；
(c) financial viability is evaluated, i.e. the financial profitability evaluation of project and Solvency evaluation, wherein finance
Profitability evaluation includes the internal rate of return (IRR), investment payback time calculating：
1) financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is to calculate basis with project capital, item is investigated from capital investor's entirety angle
After mesh income tax capital can obtainable income level, calculation formula is：
i1、i2The relatively low and higher discount rate that respectively tentative calculation is taken；NPV(i1)、NPV(i2) it is respectively corresponding i1And i2
When net present value (NPV), IRR is financial internal rate of return (FIRR)；
When IRR is more than the earning rate i of intra-company's setting0, concept feasible, and IRR is the bigger the better；
2) investment payback time is acquired, project investment cash according to accumulative total of net cash flow calculating in cash flow table
The time point that accumulative total of net cash flow is become zero by negative value in flowmeter, is the investment payback time of project, and calculation formula is：
npThe time for starting positive value occur for accumulative total of net cash flow；It is exhausted for last year cumulative net cash flow
To value；For current year net cash flow, PtFor the investment payback time of project；
By PtWith power industry investment base payoff period P0It compares, works as Pt≤P0When, it is believed that project be financially can
Capable；
The calculating networking project economic factor PCijExpression formula be：
PCij=Pj/(Pi+PLij)
PCijThe economic factor of networking project between national i and country j, PiFor sending end electricity price, PLijFor in engineering
Wheeling rate under the premise of portion's earning rate is certain, PjFor receiving end electricity price.
Wherein, the coefficient of colligation T of the networking projectijExpression formula be：
Tij=Si×Sj×COij×Sj×PCij
TijFor the coefficient of colligation of networking project, SiFor national i Electricity Investments environmental assessment value, SjFor national j Electricity Investments
Environmental assessment value, PCijThe economic factor of networking project between national i and country j, COijFor national i and country j it
Between networking project transnational relation correction factor.
Preferably, the financial profitability evaluation can also calculate financial net present value, profit-investment ratio, investment profits tax
Rate, capital profit margin.
Preferably, the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) can also be the one's own reserves internal rate of return (IRR), be to calculate with one's own reserves
Basis is investigated and has the expected income level reached in part in project funds by oneself.
Advantageous effect
Transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method provided by the invention proposes State Grid's investment environment, transnational
The three tier architecture of bilateral relation and transnational power interconnection engineering economy comprehensive analysis, innovatively throws State Grid
Money environment and transnational bilateral relation carry out quantification and simultaneously form assessed value and correction factor, using State Grid's investment environment,
Transnational bilateral relation and networking project economy three's quantification result obtain coefficient of colligation carry out comprehensive analysis, broken away from
Toward the shortcomings that three's isolated progress transnational power interconnection engineering qualitative analysis, current transnational power interconnection engineering is filled up and has been directed to
Property it is poor, lack quantitative study blank, solve the problems, such as correct decisions during transnational power networking, to transnational electric power join
Net engineering has extraordinary applicability, as a result comprehensively, accurately, can provide transnational power interconnection engineering from comprehensive angle
The science of decision refers to.
Description of the drawings
In order to illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application or in the prior art more clearly, below will to embodiment or
Attached drawing needed to be used in the description of the prior art is briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only
Some embodiments of the present application, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, also
It can be obtain other attached drawings according to these attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method schematic diagram；
Fig. 2 is State Grid's investment environment assessment models；
Fig. 3 is the State Grid's investment environment assessed value being calculated by State Grid's investment environment assessment models
(1)；
Fig. 4 is the State Grid's investment environment assessed value being calculated by State Grid's investment environment assessment models
(2)；
Fig. 5 is key factor in transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model；
Fig. 6 is the transnational bilateral relation correction factor (1) obtained according to transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model；
Fig. 7 is the transnational bilateral relation correction factor (2) obtained according to transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model；
Fig. 8 is transnational power interconnection engineering economic analysis flow chart.
Specific implementation mode
The principle and features of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and illustrated embodiment is served only for explaining the present invention,
It is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.
A kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method provided in an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Figure 1, including：
It establishes State Grid's investment environment assessment models and obtains single State Grid's investment environment assessed value；
It establishes transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model and obtains transnational bilateral relation correction factor；
Transnational power interconnection engineering economy is analyzed and calculates networking project economic factor；
According to State Grid's investment environment assessed value, transnational bilateral relation correction factor and networking project economic factor
The coefficient of colligation of networking project is obtained, science reference is provided for networking project decision.
In the following, to various pieces in a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Carry out illustrated in greater detail：
1, State Grid's investment environment assessment models are established and obtain single State Grid's investment environment assessed value (a) synthesis
Analyze the report of world's business environment, country risk guide, global trade promote report, energy dilemmas index is reported, global competition
Many index in power report, world economic outlook, the report of country risk index, human evolution report, integration project background,
Design is for single national Electricity Investment environmental assessment model, as shown in Fig. 2, model includes 6 first class index and 50 altogether
Two-level index establishes State Grid's investment environment assessment models with this, wherein first class index and two-level index are single country
Bottom index basic data, 6 first class index, respectively steady politics, macroeconomy, policies and regulations, market trade, base
Plinth supports, social safety, 50 two-level index, respectively government's stability, open conflict, intramural conflict, corruption, military shadow
It rings, religion influence, ethnic situation, democracy degree, official's quality, public organizations' efficiency, government policy transparency, inflation,
World Bank's GDP per capita, GDP speedups, GDP per capita speedup, national income percapita GNI, national income percapita GNI speedups, macroscopic view
Economic stability, legal effect, intelligent grid policy, clean energy resource policy, credit information sophistication, credit registration are perfect
Degree, judicial process quality is judicial independent, renewable investment risk, Electricity Investment risk, foreign market access, credit extending channel,
Foreign capitals participate in openness, and inlet and outlet account for GDP ratios, and the direct net investment of foreign trader accounts for GDP ratios, register of company's program, Transaction Information
Extent of disclosure, company information degrees of overtness, Investor Protection dynamics, the availability and quality of traffic infrastructure, transport services
Availability and quality, the availability of information general technology, schooling, skilled worker's training service, labour market efficiency, most
The utilizability of new technology meets the financial service of business demand, obtains the easness of loan, security risk index, person peace
Entirely, refugee's number, crime rate, police's law enforcement dynamics.
(b) based on State Grid's investment environment assessment models, the bottom index basis of k-th of country is compiled
Data, totally 6 first class index and 50 two-level index；
(c) i-th of two-level index of k-th of country is normalized, method is：If i-th of two-level index value
For Ci, the normalized value of i-th of two-level index is I (Ci)=Ci/max(Ci)；
(d) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate separately the weighted value W of 50 two-level indexi, method is：Firstly generate judgement
Matrix B=(bij)n×n, n=50, for judgment matrix B, calculating meets B × W=λmax× W, wherein λmaxFor the maximum feature of B
Root, W are corresponding to λmaxRegular feature vector, the component W of WiIt is the weighted value of index；
(e) the Electricity Investment environmental assessment of k-th of country is calculated in normalization data and weighted value based on index
Value Sk, expression formula is：
Wherein, I (CI, k) it is k-th of i-th national of two-level index normalized value, WiFor the power of i-th of two-level index
Weight values；
(f) step b~step e is repeated to global All Countries respectively, the electric power for obtaining the country of global All Countries is thrown
Provide environmental assessment value Sk。
For example, as shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4, according to State Grid's investment environment assessment models, a part of country is calculated
Electricity Investment environmental assessment value.
2, it establishes transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model and obtains transnational bilateral relation correction factor
Transnational bilateral relation is made of two parts：First is assessed from both sides' trade interaction degree, such as both sides' economy and trade
Competition and cooperation, from the construction of trade area, sub-region economic and trade cooperation etc.；Second is assessed from the political relation of both sides, such as
Bipartite exchanging visit, diplomatic maneuvres etc..
(a) it by considering transnational both sides' trade interaction degree and both sides' political relation, collects in transnational bilateral certain time limit
Diplomatic activities, extracting influences the key factor of transnational bilateral relation, as shown in figure 5, establishing transnational bilateral relation correction factor
Computation model.
All diplomatic activities of country i and country j in 3 complete years before are collected, it is transnational double by qualitative assessment
Key factor in frontier juncture system correction factor computation model carries out standard for each diplomatic activities to different key factors
Assignment, wherein as shown in figure 5, the key factor for influencing transnational bilateral relation is respectively personage's rank of bilateral activities, region
Rank, access level, protocol level, event level, meeting rank, negative event rank, one kind in behavior significance level or
It is a variety of.
For example, analyzing movable personage's rank, standard assignment is carried out：
It is such as head, then is 3 points；
It is such as premier, vice-president, then is 2 points；
It is such as the member of the standing committee, National People's Congress chairman of committee, Central Military Commission vice-president, then is 1.5 points；
Such as it is preceding head, vice chairman, vice-premier, important ministries and commissions minister, cooperative association secretary-general, total control general, law court
President etc. is then 1 point；
Such as ministries and commissions minister, deputy chief of the general staff, special representative, vice-president, vice foreign minister, secondary minister of National Defense etc. for, then for
0.8 point；
It is such as vice-minister, then is 0.5 point.
The movable access level is analyzed, standard assignment is carried out：
It is such as state visit, then is 2 points；
It is such as official visit, then is 1 point；
It is such as unofficial visit, then is 0.5 point；
Such as it is to meet, meet with, then is 0.2 point.
According to the protocol level that activity is signed, standard assignment is carried out：
Such as it is formal signing, then is 1 point；
Such as be announce, announce, formulateing and announcing, jointly stating, proposition measure, reaffirm it is formal disclosed in speech, then for
0.8 point；
It is such as memorandum, then is 0.5 point；
Such as it is to agree to recognize, formally discuss, formal talks, then is 0.2 point；
Such as it is discussion, talks, negotiation, then is 0.1 point.
According to movable event level, standard assignment is carried out：
It is such as joint military exercises, then is 2 points；
It is such as ship visit, then is 1.5 points；
Then it is 1.2 points as being other military operations；
It is such as joint counter-terrorism, then is 1 point；
Such as it is to restore ambassdorial level diplomatic relation, then is 1.5 points；
It is such as various foreign affairs exchange activities, then is 0.2 point.
Such as activity negative event rank, standard assignment is carried out：
Such as it is to reduce diplomatic rank, then is -1.5 points；
It is such as serious armed conflict, then is -2 points；
Then it is -1.5 points such as the armed conflict for；
Such as it is to close trading port and reinforce boundary to take precautions against, then is -1.5 points；
Such as it is news briefing surface attitude, then is -0.5 point.
(b) key factor cumulative method is used, obtains transnational bilateral relation total score computation model, expression formula is：
Rij=Rij1+Rij2+Rij3+……+Rijn
Wherein RijnBetween national i and country j in transnational bilateral relation different key factors standard assignment, RijFor state
Transnational bilateral relation total score between family i and country j；
For example, as shown in Figures 6 and 7, a part of country is obtained according to transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model
Transnational bilateral relation correction factor.
(c) according to transnational bilateral relation total score R between national i and country jij, normalized calculates country i and state
The transnational relation correction factor CO of networking project between family jij, expression formula is：
COij=Rij/max(Rij)
RijThe transnational bilateral relation total score between national i and country j, COijIt networks between national i and country j work
The transnational relation correction factor of journey.
3, transnational power interconnection engineering economy is analyzed and calculates networking project economic factor
Transnational power interconnection engineering economic analysis includes the analysis of power transmission engineering investment estimate, arrives net electricity price investment estimate
Analysis and financial viability evaluation, networking project economic factor is obtained according to transnational power interconnection engineering economic analysis.
As shown in figure 8, substep illustrates：
(a) power transmission engineering investment estimate is analyzed, and power transmission engineering investment collects mating exchange by DC power transmission line, power supply
Engineering is calculated separately with the mating construction investment three parts that exchange of receiving end current conversion station.
(b) net electricity price investment estimate is arrived to analyze, including：
1) calculating of net electricity price is arrived, includes the calculating of rate for incorporation into the power network, the line loss electricity price of transmission of electricity valence, embodiment transmission losses, arrives
Net electricity price is rate for incorporation into the power network, transmission of electricity valence, the addition of line loss electricity price, and wherein rate for incorporation into the power network is that electricity power enterprise surfs the Internet with power purchase side
The price of electric energy clearing；Transmission of electricity valence, which is DC engineering, provides the price of Transmission Service with the mating power grid exchanged including engineering, by
One rational internal rate of return (IRR) tentative calculation show that line loss electricity price should be calculated according to the principle that the electricity charge balance, it is assumed herein that arriving net
Electricity price is the settlement price of the grid company and the grid company by electric area that provide transmission of electricity business, that is, local power purchase
Price, calculation formula are as follows：
Line loss electricity price=rate for incorporation into the power network × line loss per unit/(1- line losses per unit)
To net electricity price=rate for incorporation into the power network+transmission of electricity valence+line loss electricity price；
2) analysis on competitive for arriving net electricity price, using sending end rate for incorporation into the power network estimation result, to transmission of electricity valence and line loss electricity price into
Row measuring and calculating show that the receiving end of transnational power networking transmission of electricity to net electricity price, is compared with receiving end stake electrovalence, analyzes net electricity
The competitiveness of valence, electricity price competitiveness=stake electrovalence-arrive net electricity price；
3) when transnational power networking power transmission engineering across it is multinational when, to net electricity price should by electricity price along plus principle calculate, need
Consider country variant electric power import tariff when across border, should using each by way of state as a link, be based on AC line
The investment of road, current conversion station and its mating exchange engineering in the border calculates separately transmission of electricity valence and line loss electricity price, by arriving for the state
Net electricity price is added with the tariff expenses of taxation of the customs tariff based on the state, the rate for incorporation into the power network as next state；
4) when a few states are there are when relay current conversion station in transnational power networking power transmission engineering, in the electricity price of the state calculates,
The rate for incorporation into the power network of electric power is flat about the weighting of respective electricity more than relay current conversion station the last period direct current of the state to net electricity price and the national wealth
After, the rate for incorporation into the power network as state's latter section of direct current of relay current conversion station.
(c) financial viability is evaluated, i.e. the financial profitability evaluation of project and Solvency evaluation, evaluation is built
Feasibility in project finance, wherein financial profitability evaluation includes the internal rate of return (IRR), investment payback time, can also be calculated
Financial net present value, profit-investment ratio, profit and tax investment ratio, capital profit margin, the internal rate of return (IRR), investment payback time computational methods
For：
1) financial internal rate of return (FIRR) (IRR) refers to capital project in construction and the production run time limit, each year net cash
The present worth of flow adds up to be equal to discount rate when 0, is the important dynamic assessment index of reflection scheme earning capacity, calculation formula
It is as follows：
It is generally available interpolation method (dichotomy) approximate solution IRR, calculation formula is as follows：
i1、i2The relatively low and higher discount rate that respectively tentative calculation is taken；NPV(i1)、NPV(i2) it is respectively corresponding i1And i2
When net present value (NPV), IRR is financial internal rate of return (FIRR)；
When IRR is more than the earning rate i of intra-company's setting0, concept feasible, and IRR is the bigger the better；
According to project analysis range and object difference, financial internal rate of return (FIRR) emphasis is different.Capital of the present invention
It is to calculate basis that the golden internal rate of return (IRR), which is with project capital, after capital investor's entirety angle investigates project income tax
Capital can obtainable income level；Financial internal rate of return (FIRR) can also be the one's own reserves internal rate of return (IRR), with one's own reserves
To calculate basis, investigates and have the expected income level reached in part in project funds by oneself.
2) investment payback time (Pt), refer to that the net profit of project compensates for fully invested (investment in fixed assets, investment orientation
Regulatory tax and circulating fund) needed for time, generally since build count in year.It is investigation project in investment financially
The dominant static evaluation index of recycling ability.Its expression formula is：
Wherein, (CI-CO)tFor accumulative total of net cash flow in project investment cash flow statement, the investment payback time can be according to wealth
Accumulative total of net cash flow calculating acquires in business cash flow statement (fully invested).Add up in project investment cash flow statement net existing
The time point that gold flux is become zero by negative value, the as investment payback time of project.Investment payback time can be calculated as follows：
Wherein, npThe time for starting positive value occur for accumulative total of net cash flow；For last year cumulative net cash
Flow absolute value；For current year net cash flow.
By PtWith power industry investment base payoff period P0It compares, works as Pt≤P0When, it is believed that project be financially can
Capable.
Then networking project economic factor is obtained according to transnational power interconnection engineering economic analysis, calculates networking work
Journey economic factor PCijExpression formula be：
PCij=Pj/(Pi+PLij)
PCijThe economic factor of networking project between national i and country j, PiFor sending end electricity price, PLijFor in engineering
Wheeling rate under the premise of portion's earning rate is certain, PjFor receiving end electricity price.
4, according to State Grid's investment environment assessed value, transnational bilateral relation correction factor and networking project economy system
Number obtains the coefficient of colligation of networking project
The coefficient of colligation T of networking projectijExpression formula be：
Tij=Si×Sj×COij×Sj×PCij
TijFor the coefficient of colligation of networking project, SiFor national i Electricity Investments environmental assessment value, SjFor national j Electricity Investments
Environmental assessment value, PCijThe economic factor of networking project between national i and country j, COijFor national i and country j it
Between networking project transnational relation correction factor.
For N number of different networking project, its coefficient of colligation T is calculated separatelyij, as a result show the engineering construction more greatly
Investment environment and economy are better, and ranking, the item that networking project in the top is as preferentially implemented are carried out according to the result
Mesh.
Transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method provided by the invention proposes State Grid's investment environment, transnational
The three tier architecture of bilateral relation and transnational power interconnection engineering economy comprehensive analysis, innovatively throws State Grid
Money environment and transnational bilateral relation carry out quantification and simultaneously form assessed value and correction factor, using State Grid's investment environment,
Transnational bilateral relation and networking project economy three's quantification result obtain coefficient of colligation carry out comprehensive analysis, broken away from
Toward the shortcomings that three's isolated progress transnational power interconnection engineering qualitative analysis, current transnational power interconnection engineering is filled up and has been directed to
Property it is poor, lack quantitative study blank, solve the problems, such as correct decisions during transnational power networking, to transnational electric power join
Net engineering has extraordinary applicability, as a result comprehensively, accurately, can provide transnational power interconnection engineering from comprehensive angle
The science of decision refers to.
Embodiment is described by the way of progressive in this specification, and the foregoing description of the disclosed embodiments makes ability
Domain professional technician can realize or use the application.Professional technique of the various modifications to these embodiments to this field
It will be apparent for personnel, the general principles defined herein can not depart from spirit herein or range
In the case of, it realizes in other embodiments.Therefore, the application is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein, and
It is to fit to widest range consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed in this article.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method, which is characterized in that including：
It establishes State Grid's investment environment assessment models and obtains single State Grid's investment environment assessed value；
It establishes transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model and obtains transnational bilateral relation correction factor；
Transnational power interconnection engineering economy is analyzed and calculates networking project economic factor；
Joined according to State Grid's investment environment assessed value, transnational bilateral relation correction factor and networking project economic factor
The coefficient of colligation of net engineering provides science reference for networking project decision.
2. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described to obtain list
The step of a State Grid's investment environment assessed value is：
(a) it is basic data, total m first class index and n two-level index with the bottom index of single country, establishes State Grid
Investment environment assessment models；
(b) based on State Grid's investment environment assessment models, the bottom index basic data of k-th of country is compiled,
Total m first class index and n two-level index；
(c) i-th of two-level index of k-th of country is normalized, method is：If i-th of two-level index value is Ci,
The normalized value of i-th of two-level index is I (Ci)=Ci/max(Ci)；
(d) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate separately the weighted value W of n two-level indexi, method is：Firstly generate judgment matrix B=
(bij)n×n, for judgment matrix B, calculating meets B × W=λmax× W, wherein λmaxFor the Maximum characteristic root of B, W be corresponding to
λmaxRegular feature vector, the component W of WiIt is the weighted value of index；
(e) the Electricity Investment environmental assessment value S of k-th of country is calculated in normalization data and weighted value based on indexk, table
It is up to formula：
Wherein, I (CI, k) it is k-th of i-th national of two-level index normalized value, WiFor the weighted value of i-th of two-level index；
(f) step b~step e is repeated to global All Countries respectively, obtains the Electricity Investment environmental assessment of global All Countries
Value Sk。
3. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that state's household electrical appliances
Power investment environment assessment models include 6 first class index, respectively steady politics, macroeconomy, policies and regulations, market trade,
Base support, social safety.
4. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that state's household electrical appliances
Power investment environment assessment models further include 50 two-level index, respectively government's stability, and open conflict, intramural conflict is corrupt,
Military affairs influence, religion influence, ethnic situation, democracy degree, official's quality, public organizations' efficiency, government policy transparency, currency
Expansion, World Bank's GDP per capita, GDP speedups, GDP per capita speedup, national income percapita GNI, national income percapita GNI speedups,
Macroeconomic Stability, legal effect, intelligent grid policy, clean energy resource policy, credit information sophistication, credit registration are perfect
Degree, judicial process quality is judicial independent, renewable investment risk, Electricity Investment risk, foreign market access, credit extending channel, outside
Money participates in openness, and inlet and outlet account for GDP ratios, and the direct net investment of foreign trader accounts for GDP ratios, register of company's program, Transaction Information public affairs
Open degree, company information degrees of overtness, Investor Protection dynamics, the availability and quality of traffic infrastructure, transport services can
With property and quality, the availability of information general technology, schooling, skilled worker's training service, labour market efficiency, newest skill
The utilizability of art meets the financial service of business demand, obtains the easness of loan, security risk index, personal safety, hardly possible
People's number, crime rate, police's law enforcement dynamics.
5. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that it is described obtain across
The step of state's bilateral relation correction factor is：
(a) it by considering transnational both sides' trade interaction degree and both sides' political relation, collects outer in transnational bilateral certain time limit
It turns over a finished item dynamic, extracting influences the key factor of transnational bilateral relation, establishes transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model；
(b) by the key factor in the transnational bilateral relation correction factor computation model of qualitative assessment, to national i and country j it
Between in transnational bilateral relation different key factors carry out standard assignment transnational bilateral relation obtained using key factor cumulative method
Total score computation model, expression formula are：
Rij=Rij1+Rij2+Rij3+……+Rijn
Wherein, RijnBetween national i and country j in transnational bilateral relation different key factors standard assignment, RijFor national i
The transnational bilateral relation total score between national j；
(c) according to transnational bilateral relation total score R between national i and country jij, normalized calculate country i and country j it
Between networking project transnational relation correction factor COij, expression formula is：
COij=Rij/max(Rij)
Wherein, RijThe transnational bilateral relation total score between national i and country j, COijThe networking project between national i and country j
Transnational relation correction factor.
6. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as claimed in claim 5, which is characterized in that it is described influence across
The key factor of state's bilateral relation is respectively personage's rank of bilateral activities, region rank, access level, protocol level, event
Rank, meeting rank, negative event rank are one or more in behavior significance level.
7. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described to transnational
The step of power interconnection engineering economy is analyzed be：
(a) power transmission engineering investment estimate analyze, power transmission engineering investment by DC power transmission line, power supply collect mating exchange engineering and
The mating exchange construction investment three parts of receiving end current conversion station calculate separately；
(b) net electricity price investment estimate is arrived to analyze, including：
1) calculating of net electricity price is arrived, the calculating of rate for incorporation into the power network, the line loss electricity price of transmission of electricity valence, embodiment transmission losses is included, to net electricity
Valence is rate for incorporation into the power network, transmission of electricity valence, the addition of line loss electricity price；
2) analysis on competitive for arriving net electricity price surveys transmission of electricity valence and line loss electricity price using sending end rate for incorporation into the power network estimation result
It calculates, show that the receiving end of transnational power networking transmission of electricity to net electricity price, is compared with receiving end stake electrovalence, analyzes the competing of net electricity price
Strive power；
3) when transnational power networking power transmission engineering across it is multinational when, to net electricity price should by electricity price along plus principle calculate, need to across
More border when consider country variant electric power import tariff；
4) when a few states are there are when relay current conversion station in transnational power networking power transmission engineering, in the electricity price of the state calculates, the state
Relay current conversion station the last period direct current to net electricity price and the national wealth more than electric power rate for incorporation into the power network about respective electricity weighted average after,
Rate for incorporation into the power network as state's latter section of direct current of relay current conversion station；
(c) financial viability is evaluated, i.e. the financial profitability evaluation of project and Solvency evaluation, wherein finance profit
Merit rating includes the internal rate of return (IRR), investment payback time calculating：
1) financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is to calculate basis with project capital, project institute is investigated from capital investor's entirety angle
After-tax capital can obtainable income level, calculation formula is：
Wherein, i1、i2The relatively low and higher discount rate that respectively tentative calculation is taken；NPV(i1)、NPV(i2) it is respectively corresponding i1And i2
When net present value (NPV), IRR is financial internal rate of return (FIRR)；
When IRR is more than the earning rate i of intra-company's setting0, concept feasible, and IRR is the bigger the better；
2) investment payback time is acquired, project investment cash flow according to accumulative total of net cash flow calculating in cash flow table
The time point that accumulative total of net cash flow is become zero by negative value in table, the as investment payback time of project, calculation formula are：
Wherein, npThe time for starting positive value occur for accumulative total of net cash flow；It is exhausted for last year cumulative net cash flow
To value；For current year net cash flow, PtFor the investment payback time of project；
By PtWith power industry investment base payoff period P0It compares, works as Pt≤P0When, it is believed that project is being financially feasible；
The calculating networking project economic factor PCijExpression formula be：
PCij=Pj/(Pi+PLij)
Wherein, PCijThe economic factor of networking project between national i and country j, PiFor sending end electricity price, PLijFor in engineering
Wheeling rate under the premise of portion's earning rate is certain, PjFor receiving end electricity price.
8. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the networking work
The coefficient of colligation T of journeyijExpression formula be：
Tij=Si×Sj×COij×Sj×PCij
Wherein, TijFor the coefficient of colligation of networking project, SiFor national i Electricity Investments environmental assessment value, SjFor national j Electricity Investments
Environmental assessment value, PCijThe economic factor of networking project between national i and country j, COijBetween national i and country j
The transnational relation correction factor of networking project.
9. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that the finance are full of
Sharp merit rating can also calculate financial net present value, profit-investment ratio, profit and tax investment ratio, capital profit margin.
10. a kind of transnational power interconnection engineering comprehensive analysis method as claimed in claim 7, which is characterized in that the finance
The internal rate of return (IRR) can also be the one's own reserves internal rate of return (IRR), is to calculate basis with one's own reserves, investigates in project funds and have by oneself
The expected income level reached in part.
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