CN108763621A - A kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing - Google Patents
A kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing Download PDFInfo
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- CN108763621A CN108763621A CN201810313002.4A CN201810313002A CN108763621A CN 108763621 A CN108763621 A CN 108763621A CN 201810313002 A CN201810313002 A CN 201810313002A CN 108763621 A CN108763621 A CN 108763621A
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Abstract
A kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing disclosed by the invention, step 1：Data collection；It collects per daily rainfall data, the data of sunspot data, ENSO exponent datas, Arctic Oscillation；Step 2：Calculate rainfall erosivity average value；Step 3：Draw the spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity；Step 4：With the drawing gathered data trend chart of rainfall erosivity in the period；Step 5：Draw rainfall erosivity time-space distribution graph；Step 6：The spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall erosion calculate.By analyzing the influence of ENSO indexes, relative sunspot number, Arctic Oscillation to rainfall erosivity, and the power influenced on rainfall erosivity between ENSO indexes, relative sunspot number, Arctic Oscillation is analyzed, discloses the driving mechanism of rainfall erosivity variation.The changing pattern of rainfall erosivity change in time and space under the changing environment of region is analyzed, influence area rainfall erosivity instructs local area ecological reparation and administer to the response characteristic of changing environment.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to meteorological rainfall technical fields, are related to a kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing.
Background technology
At present for the domestic and international research in terms of rainfall erosivity with disclose rainfall erosivity under changing environment when
For the purpose of space-variant feature.However, the driving mechanism of rainfall erosivity variation not yet discloses.It is previous research shows that：Big compression ring
The throat floater factor such as ENSO (El Nio-Southern Oscillation), sunspot, Arctic Oscillation etc. have rainfall erosivity important shadow
It rings, but existing technology and unresolved ENSO, sunspot, Arctic Oscillation etc. are to rainfall erosivity influence mode.
Invention content
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of methods of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing, can calculate rainfall erosion
The period of power, and rainfall erosivity influence factor can be obtained.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention is：A kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing,
Step 1：Data collection；In collection time period multiple websites per daily rainfall, relative sunspot number data,
ENSO exponent datas, Arctic Oscillation data；
Step 2：The rainfall data that screening step one is collected take daily rainfall to be not less than 12mm, calculate each website time
Rainfall erosivity average value in section；
Step 3：Draw the spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity；Using the anti-distance weighting interpolation techniques of ArcGIS, according to adopting
Collect the topographic map on data ground, adds rainfall erosivity average value in step 2 calculated each website period, draw out and adopt
With the collecting data spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity in the period；
Step 4：With the drawing gathered data trend chart of rainfall erosivity in the period；According to the drop of each website
The average value of the rain agent of erosion, the statistical value of each website rainfall erosivity variation tendency, draws out and adopts with calculating gathered data
With the collecting data trend chart of rainfall erosivity in the period；
Step 5：With the drawing gathered data change in time and space distribution map of rainfall erosivity in the period；It is dropped according to step 4
The statistical value of rain agent of erosion variation tendency, with obtaining gathered data each website rainfall trend, by the rainfall trend of each website
The spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity with being added to the gathered data of step 3 in the period drops with obtaining the data in the period
The change in time and space distribution map of the rain agent of erosion；
Step 6：The spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall erosion calculate；By basin subregion, the rainfall within the period of website in region is invaded
It loses power average value to input as causal variable, then inputs relative sunspot number, the index of ENSO indexes and Arctic Oscillation respectively
Data variable as a result runs program, and rainfall erosivity is invaded with relative sunspot number, rainfall with respectively obtaining gathered data
Erosion power intersects small echo figure with ENSO indexes, rainfall erosivity with Arctic Oscillation.
The features of the present invention also characterized in that
In the intersection small echo figure obtained in step 6, arrow from left to right indicates the sunspot inputted or ENSO indexes
Or the variation same-phase of Arctic Oscillation factor and rainfall erosivity, correlation；Arrow from right to left indicates input
The variation antiphase of sunspot, ENSO indexes and Arctic Oscillation factor and rainfall erosivity, negatively correlated relationship；From bottom to top
Arrow indicate input sunspot ENSO indexes or Arctic Oscillation factor it is more advanced than the variation of rainfall erosivity；On to
Under arrow indicate that the variation of sunspot or ENSO indexes or Arctic Oscillation factor than rainfall erosivity of input falls behind.
In step 6, analyses and comparison rainfall erosivity intersects small echo figure, rainfall erosivity and ENSO indexes with sunspot
Intersection small echo figure, rainfall erosivity intersect the range size of small echo figure with Arctic Oscillation；Coverage area greatly then invades rainfall
Losing power influences greatly；Coverage area is small then small on rainfall erosivity influence.
Rainfall erosivity average value specific formula for calculation is for many years in period in step 2：
The β of α=21.239-7.3967 (2)
In formula：For the rainfall erosivity of 1 year kth moon in the period,For 1 year kth moon jth time aggressivity drop
Rainfall, N are to calculate data sequence length, and M is 1 year kth moon erosive rainfall number, and α, β are model parameter,For the time
The average value of erosive rainfall amount in section,For rainfall erosivity average value in the period.
The changing value specific formula for calculation of rainfall erosivity trend is in calculating multiple website times in step 4：
Step 4.1, if observation time is N, the average annual rainfall erosivity value sequence of a certain website is X=in observation time
X1, X2, X3... ... XN, rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend statistical value S is represented by：
Wherein, Xi, XjThe rainfall erosion force value in a certain year is respectively represented,
Step 4.2, the variance of S is expressed as：
Step 4.3, if possessing the inspection rainfall erosion of the inspection statistics value of standard normal variable in certain ideal confidence level
Power Long-term change trend statistical value is
Step 4.4, it is assumed that the average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average trendless that observation time is N changes, and takes notable water
Flat α=5% finds critical value U in gaussian distribution tableα/2=1.96；When | Z | > Uα/2When, refusal assumes that sequence trendless becomes
Change, i.e. average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average variation tendency is notable in observation time N；When | Z | < Uα/2When, receive to assume sequence
Row trendless changes, i.e. average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average variation tendency is not notable in observation time N.
Average annual rainfall erosivity value sequence variation tendency is notable in observation time N in step 4.4, if rainfall erosivity trend
Variation statistical value is negative value, then rainfall erosivity trend is on a declining curve, if rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend statistical value is positive value,
Then rainfall erosivity trend is in rising trend.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：A kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing of the present invention, first calculates the time
The average value of rainfall erosivity in section, then calculate the statistics of rainfall erosivity with being worth to data in the period rainfall erosion change
Change trend；By analyzing the influence of ENSO indexes, relative sunspot number, Arctic Oscillation to rainfall erosivity, and analyze ENSO
The power that index, relative sunspot number, Arctic Oscillation influence rainfall erosivity, to disclose the driving of rainfall erosivity variation
Mechanism.The research for analyzing the changing pattern of rainfall erosivity change in time and space under the changing environment of region, reason and influence, helps to take off
Show response characteristic of the Regional Rainfall agent of erosion to changing environment, to instruct the restoration of the ecosystem and improvement in region.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is a kind of Huashan station rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing of the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 3 is a kind of rainfall erosion in the period of the gathered data of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing of present invention ground
The time-space distribution graph of power；
Fig. 4 a are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention Weihe River Drainage Basin period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with ENSO indexes；
Fig. 4 b are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention Jing river basin period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with ENSO indexes；
Fig. 4 c are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention the Upper Reaches of Wei River period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with ENSO indexes；
Fig. 5 a are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention Weihe River Drainage Basin period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with Arctic Oscillation；
Fig. 5 b are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention Jing river basin period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with Arctic Oscillation；
Fig. 5 c are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention the Upper Reaches of Wei River period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with Arctic Oscillation；
Fig. 6 a are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention Weihe River Drainage Basin period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with sunspot index；
Fig. 6 b are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention Jing river basin period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with sunspot index；
Fig. 6 c are rainfall erosions in a kind of present invention the Upper Reaches of Wei River period of the method for rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing
Power intersects Wavelet Energy Spectrum with sunspot index.
Specific implementation mode
The following describes the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
The present invention provides a kind of methods of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing, as shown in Figure 1,
Step 1：Data collection；
Multiple websites are per daily rainfall, relative sunspot number data, ENSO exponent datas, arctic great waves in collection time period
Dynamic data；
Step 2：The rainfall product data that screening step one is collected chooses the rainfall product data that daily rainfall is not less than 12mm,
Calculate rainfall erosivity average value in each website period；
Step 3：Draw the spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity；
Using the anti-distance weighting interpolation techniques of ArcGIS, according to the topographic map on gathered data ground, addition step 2 calculates
Each website period in rainfall erosivity average value, with drawing out gathered data in the period rainfall erosivity space point
Butut；
Step 4：With drawing gathered data in the period each website rainfall erosivity trend chart；According to each
The average value of the rainfall erosivity of website, with the calculating gathered data statistical value of each website rainfall erosivity variation tendency,
With drawing out gathered data in the period each website rainfall erosivity trend chart；
Step 5：With the drawing gathered data change in time and space distribution map of rainfall erosivity in the period；
According to the statistical value of step 4 rainfall erosivity variation tendency, with obtaining gathered data each website rainfall trend,
The spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity, obtains the rainfall trend of each website is added to the gathered data of step 3 in the period
To the data in period rainfall erosivity change in time and space distribution map；
Step 6：The spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall erosion calculate；By the website in basin subregion, region, rainfall is invaded within the period
It loses power average value to input as causal variable, then inputs relative sunspot number, the index of ENSO indexes and Arctic Oscillation respectively
Data variable as a result runs program, and rainfall erosivity is invaded with relative sunspot number, rainfall with respectively obtaining gathered data
Erosion power intersects small echo figure with ENSO indexes, rainfall erosivity with Arctic Oscillation.
Step 1：Data collection；With collecting data each website every daily rainfall, relative sunspot number number in the period
According to, the data of ENSO exponent datas, Arctic Oscillation.
(1) from Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service obtain on the net the full basin in the Weihe River 1960-2008, Jing river basin,
Every daily rainfall data of each testing station of the Upper Reaches of Wei River；
(2) extension interpolation is carried out to individual missing datas of some of which survey station, and carries out three property examinations, it is final to determine choosing
Analysis calculating is carried out with the data of 1960-2008；
(3) by the sunspot index of the International Council of Scientific Unions's (ICSU) World data system (WDS) with it is long-term too
Positive watch website obtains sunspot data, is obtained by national marine and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory
ENSO indexes (Nino3.4) are obtained the data of Arctic Oscillation by NOAA National Climatic Data Center.
Step 2, the rainfall product data that screening step one is collected choose the rainfall product data that daily rainfall is not less than 12mm,
Rainfall erosivity average value in each website period, specific formula for calculation are with calculating data：
The β of α=21.239-7.3967 (2)
In formula：For the rainfall erosivity of 1 year kth moon in the period,For 1 year kth moon jth time aggressivity drop
Rainfall, N are to calculate data sequence length, and M is 1 year kth moon erosive rainfall number, and α, β are model parameter,For the time
The average value of erosive rainfall amount in section,For rainfall erosivity average value in the period.
Step 3：Drawing data rainfall erosivity spatial distribution map；
Using the anti-distance weighting interpolation techniques of ArcGIS, according to the topographic map on gathered data ground, addition step 2 calculates
Each website period in rainfall erosivity average value, with drawing out gathered data in the time rainfall erosivity spatial distribution
Figure.
Step 4：The average value that the rainfall erosivity of each website is calculated according to step 2, with calculating gathered data
The statistical value of each website rainfall erosivity variation tendency；It is invaded come rainfall in judging data each website period by statistical value
Lose the variation tendency of power；
It calculates the changing value specific formula for calculation of rainfall erosivity trend in multiple website times：
Step 4.1, if observation time is N, the average annual rainfall erosivity value sequence of a certain website is X=in observation time
X1, X2, X3... ... XN, rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend statistical value S is represented by：
Wherein, Xi, XjThe rainfall erosion force value in a certain year is respectively represented,
Step 4.2, the variance of S is expressed as：
Step 4.3, if possessing the inspection rainfall erosion of the inspection statistics value of standard normal variable in certain ideal confidence level
Power Long-term change trend statistical value is
Step 4.4, it is assumed that the average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average trendless that observation time is N changes, and takes notable water
Flat α=5% finds critical value U in gaussian distribution tableα/2=1.96；When | Z | > Uα/2When, refusal assumes that sequence trendless becomes
Change, i.e. average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average variation tendency is notable in observation time N；When | Z | < Uα/2When, receive to assume sequence
Row trendless changes, i.e. average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average variation tendency is not notable in observation time N.
According to each website rainfall erosivity average value of calculating, each website rainfall erosivity variation tendency can be drawn out
Figure, as shown in Fig. 2, calculating the statistical value of Weihe River Drainage Basin Huashan station rainfall erosivity variation tendency；It can be sentenced according to statistical value
Disconnected is in the trend for being incremented by or submitting；From the rainfall erosion for drawing a website known to the rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend figure of Huashan station
Power trend chart, it is only necessary to know the average value of rainfall erosivity；Rainfall erosivity is guessed from the figure at Huashan station
The statistical value of variation tendency is that rainfall erosivity is the trend of tapering off in expression Huashan station 49 years.
Step 5：With the drawing gathered data change in time and space distribution map of rainfall erosivity in the period；It is dropped according to step 4
The statistical value of rain agent of erosion variation tendency, with obtaining gathered data each website rainfall trend, if rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend
Statistical value is negative value, then rainfall erosivity trend is on a declining curve, if rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend statistical value is positive value, is dropped
Rain agent of erosion trend is in rising trend.When statistical value is negative value in Fig. 3, if ▼ indicates that rainfall erosivity trend is on a declining curve,Indicate that rainfall erosivity trend is in notable downward trend；Statistical value is positive value, if ▲ indicate rainfall erosivity trend in rising
Trend,Indicate that rainfall erosivity trend is in notable ascendant trend.By the rainfall trend of all websites of Weihe River Drainage Basin, drop in Fig. 3
Rain agent of erosion trend is on a declining curve to be indicated with ▼, and rainfall erosivity is remarkably decreased trend useIt indicates；It is added to step 3
In the Weihe River Drainage Basin period of acquisition in the spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity, rainfall erosivity in the Weihe River Drainage Basin period is obtained
Change in time and space distribution map.
As shown in figure 3, drawing out the spatial distribution map of the rainfall erosivity of Weihe River Drainage Basin, calculated according to step 4 each
The trend of the rainfall erosivity of each website is added to rainfall space by the variation tendency of rainfall erosivity in 49 years website time
In distribution map, Weihe River Drainage Basin rainfall erosivity time-space distribution graph is obtained.If
Step 6：The spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall erosion calculate；By rainfall erosivity in the website period in basin subregion, region
Average value as causal variable input, then respectively input relative sunspot number, ENSO indexes and Arctic Oscillation achievement data
Variable as a result runs program, with respectively obtaining gathered data rainfall erosivity and relative sunspot number, rainfall erosivity
Intersect small echo figure with Arctic Oscillation with ENSO indexes, rainfall erosivity.
In the intersection small echo figure obtained in step 6, arrow from left to right indicates the sunspot inputted or ENSO indexes
Or the variation same-phase of Arctic Oscillation factor and rainfall erosivity, correlation；Arrow from right to left indicates input
The variation antiphase of sunspot, ENSO indexes and Arctic Oscillation factor and rainfall erosivity, negatively correlated relationship；From bottom to top
Arrow indicate input sunspot ENSO indexes or Arctic Oscillation factor it is more advanced than the variation of rainfall erosivity；On to
Under arrow indicate that the variation of sunspot or ENSO indexes or Arctic Oscillation factor than rainfall erosivity of input falls behind.
In step 6, analyses and comparison rainfall erosivity intersects small echo figure, rainfall erosivity and ENSO indexes with sunspot
Intersection small echo figure, rainfall erosivity intersect the range size of small echo figure with Arctic Oscillation；Coverage area greatly then invades rainfall
Losing power influences greatly；Coverage area is small then small on rainfall erosivity influence.
It is specifically Driving force analyzing：
(1) rainfall erosivity of Weihe River Drainage Basin is divided into three parts to analyze, as the full basin in the Weihe River, Jing river basin
And the Upper Reaches of Wei River, calculate separately the average annual rainfall erosivity of the included website in these three regions.
(2) using the Matlab programs for intersecting small echo, respectively by the full basin in the Weihe River, three portions of Jing river basin and the Upper Reaches of Wei River
Divide this 49 years rainfall erosion force data of 1960-2008 as causal variableInput, by sunspot, ENSO, the arctic
Variable (Y) inputs the achievement data of oscillation as a result, runs program, then go out figure by " plot " function, can respectively obtain
Intersect small echo figure.
The concrete principle for intersecting small echo, which is two intersection wavelet power spectrums (XWT) between time series (t) and y (t), to determine
Justice is：
In formula：CX(a, τ) isWavelet conversion coefficient,It is the complex conjugate of y (t) wavelet conversion coefficients.
As shown in fig. 4 a, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity in the full basin in the Weihe River as causal variable, using ENSO as index number
It is inputted according to outcome variable, runs program, then figure is gone out by " plot " function, Weihe River Drainage Basin rainfall erosivity can be obtained and refer to ENSO
Number intersects wavelet energy spectrogram.
As shown in Figure 4 b, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity of Jing river basin as causal variable, using ENSO as achievement data
Outcome variable inputs, and runs program, then go out figure by " plot " function, Jing river basin rainfall erosivity and ENSO indexes can be obtained
Intersect wavelet energy spectrogram.
As illustrated in fig. 4 c, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity of the Upper Reaches of Wei River as causal variable, using ENSO as achievement data
Outcome variable inputs, and runs program, then go out figure by " plot " function, Jing river basin rainfall erosivity and ENSO indexes can be obtained
Intersect wavelet energy spectrogram.
As shown in Figure 5 a, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity in the full basin in the Weihe River as causal variable, using Arctic Oscillation as referring to
The input of data result variable is marked, runs program, then figure is gone out by " plot " function, Weihe River Drainage Basin rainfall erosivity and north can be obtained
Pole Oscillation Index intersects wavelet energy spectrogram.
As shown in Figure 5 b, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity of Jing river basin as causal variable, using Arctic Oscillation as index
Data result variable inputs, and runs program, then go out figure by " plot " function, Jing river basin rainfall erosivity and the arctic can be obtained
Oscillation Index intersects wavelet energy spectrogram.
As shown in Figure 5 c, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity of the Upper Reaches of Wei River as causal variable, using Arctic Oscillation as index
Data result variable inputs, and runs program, then go out figure by " plot " function, the Upper Reaches of Wei River rainfall erosivity and the arctic can be obtained
Oscillation Index intersects wavelet energy spectrogram.
As shown in Figure 6 a, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity in the full basin in the Weihe River as causal variable, using sunspot as referring to
Mark the input of data result variable, run program, then figure is gone out by " plot " function, can be obtained Weihe River Drainage Basin rainfall erosivity with too
Positive black mole index intersects wavelet energy spectrogram.
As shown in Figure 6 b, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity of Jing river basin as causal variable, using sunspot as index
Data result variable inputs, and runs program, then go out figure by " plot " function, Jing river basin rainfall erosivity and the sun can be obtained
Black mole index intersects wavelet energy spectrogram.
As fig. 6 c, it is inputted the rainfall erosivity of the Upper Reaches of Wei River as causal variable, using sunspot as index
Data result variable inputs, and runs program, then go out figure by " plot " function, the Upper Reaches of Wei River rainfall erosivity and the sun can be obtained
Black mole index intersects wavelet energy spectrogram.
It is effective spectrum area that taper area is interior as shown in Fig. 4 a~Fig. 6 c, in figure；Black heavy line represents logical in region
Cross 95% confidence interval of level of significance α=0.05.The arrow of (→) indicates that the sun of input is black from left to right in figure
The variation same-phase of son or ENSO or Arctic Oscillation factor and rainfall erosivity, correlation, i.e. sunspot or ENSO
Or Arctic Oscillation factor increases, then rainfall erosivity accordingly increases；From right to left (←) arrow indicate input sunspot,
The variation antiphase of ENSO and Arctic Oscillation factor and rainfall erosivity, negatively correlated relationship, i.e. sunspot or ENSO or north
Pole oscillation factor increases, then rainfall erosivity is reduced；Arrow from bottom to top indicates the sunspot inputted or ENSO or the arctic
Oscillation factor is more advanced than the variation of rainfall erosivity, i.e. sunspot or ENSO or Arctic Oscillation factor influence rainfall erosivity is carried
It is preceding to occur 3 months；Arrow from top to bottom indicates that the sunspot inputted or ENSO or Arctic Oscillation factor compare rainfall erosion
The variation of power falls behind, i.e. sunspot or ENSO or Arctic Oscillation factor influences rainfall erosivity backwardness 3 months.
According to Fig. 4 a~Fig. 6 c, analyses and comparison rainfall erosivity intersects small echo figure, rainfall erosivity with sunspot
Intersect the range size that small echo figure, rainfall erosivity intersect with Arctic Oscillation small echo figure with ENSO；Range is big then to invade rainfall
Losing power influences greatly；Range it is small then on rainfall erosivity influence it is small.Shown in Fig. 4 a~Fig. 6 c, the full basin in the Weihe River, Jing river basin
Influence with the Upper Reaches of Wei River to rainfall erosivity, sunspot is most strong, and ENSO takes second place, and Arctic Oscillation is most weak.
By the above-mentioned means, a kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing of the present invention, first calculates drop in the period
The average value of the rain agent of erosion, then calculate the statistics of rainfall erosivity the growth of rainfall erosion becomes in the period with being worth to data
Gesture；Using intersect small echo program, using the average value of rainfall erosivity as causal variable input, by relative sunspot number,
Variable inputs the achievement data of ENSO indexes and Arctic Oscillation as a result, and rainfall erosivity and the sun are black with obtaining gathered data
Sub- relative number, rainfall erosivity and ENSO indexes, rainfall erosivity intersect small echo figure with Arctic Oscillation, are referred to by analyzing ENSO
The influence of number, relative sunspot number, Arctic Oscillation factor to rainfall erosivity, and it is opposite to analyze ENSO indexes, sunspot
The power that rainfall erosivity is influenced between the factors such as number, Arctic Oscillation, to disclose the driving mechanism of rainfall erosivity variation.It opens
The research of the change in time and space pattern of exhibition analysis geographical diversity rainfall erosivity, reason and influence, helps to disclose Regional Rainfall
The agent of erosion is to the response characteristic of changing environment, to instruct in region restoration of the ecosystem and administer.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing, which is characterized in that described.
Step 1：Data collection；
Multiple websites are per daily rainfall, relative sunspot number data, ENSO exponent datas, Arctic Oscillation number in collection time period
According to；
Step 2：The rainfall product data that screening step one is collected chooses the rainfall product data that daily rainfall is not less than 12mm, calculates
Rainfall erosivity average value in each website period；
Step 3：Draw the spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity；
Using the anti-distance weighting interpolation techniques of ArcGIS, according to the topographic map on gathered data ground, addition step 2 is calculated every
Rainfall erosivity average value in a website period, with drawing out gathered data in the period rainfall erosivity spatial distribution
Figure；
Step 4：With drawing gathered data in the period each website rainfall erosivity trend chart；
According to the average value of the rainfall erosivity of each website, with calculating gathered data each website rainfall erosivity variation becomes
The statistical value of gesture, with drawing out gathered data in the period each website rainfall erosivity trend chart；
Step 5：With the drawing gathered data change in time and space distribution map of rainfall erosivity in the period；
According to the statistical value of step 4 rainfall erosivity variation tendency, with obtaining gathered data each website rainfall trend will be every
The spatial distribution map of rainfall erosivity, is somebody's turn to do in the rainfall trend of a website with being added to the gathered data of the step 3 period
Data ground change in time and space distribution map of rainfall erosivity in the period；
Step 6：The spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall erosion calculate；By the website in basin subregion, region within the period rainfall erosivity
Average value as causal variable input, then respectively input relative sunspot number, ENSO indexes and Arctic Oscillation achievement data
Variable as a result runs program, with respectively obtaining gathered data rainfall erosivity and relative sunspot number, rainfall erosivity
Intersect small echo figure with Arctic Oscillation with ENSO indexes, rainfall erosivity.
2. a kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the step 6
In, analyses and comparison rainfall erosivity intersects small echo figure, rainfall erosivity and ENSO indexes with sunspot and intersects small echo figure, rainfall
The agent of erosion intersects the size of the influence area range of small echo figure with Arctic Oscillation；Coverage area is greatly then to rainfall erosivity shadow
It rings big；Coverage area is small then small on rainfall erosivity influence.
3. a kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step 2
Period in for many years rainfall erosivity average value specific formula for calculation be：
The β of α=21.239-7.3967 (2)
In formula：For the rainfall erosivity of 1 year kth moon in the period,For 1 year kth moon jth erosive rainfall amount,
N is to calculate data sequence length, and M is 1 year kth moon erosive rainfall number, and α, β are model parameter,To be invaded in the period
The average value of corrosion rainfall,For rainfall erosivity average value in the period.
4. a kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step 4
Calculating multiple website times in the changing value specific formula for calculation of rainfall erosivity trend be：
Step 4.1, if observation time is N, the average annual rainfall erosivity value sequence of a certain website is X=X in observation time1,
X2, X3... ... XN, rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend statistical value S is represented by：
Wherein, Xi, XjThe rainfall erosion force value in a certain year is respectively represented,
Step 4.2, the variance of S is expressed as：
Step 4.3, if the inspection rainfall erosivity for possessing the inspection statistics value of standard normal variable in certain ideal confidence level becomes
Gesture changes statistical value
Step 4.4, it is assumed that observation time be N average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average trendless change, take level of signifiance α=
5% finds critical value U in gaussian distribution tableα/2=1.96；When | Z | > Uα/2When, refusal assumes the variation of sequence trendless, that is, sees
It is notable to survey average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average variation tendency in time N；When | Z | < Uα/2When, receive to assume sequence trendless
Change, i.e. average annual rainfall erosivity sequence of average variation tendency is not notable in observation time N.
5. a kind of method of rainfall erosivity Driving force analyzing as claimed in claim 4, which is characterized in that the step 4.4
Average annual rainfall erosivity value sequence variation tendency is notable in middle observation time N, if rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend statistical value is negative
Value, then rainfall erosivity trend is on a declining curve, if rainfall erosivity Long-term change trend statistical value is positive value, rainfall erosivity becomes
Gesture is in rising trend.
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