CN108734341A - 一种基于时间序列arma模型的自组织电力负荷预报方法 - Google Patents
一种基于时间序列arma模型的自组织电力负荷预报方法 Download PDFInfo
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- CN108734341A CN108734341A CN201810395065.9A CN201810395065A CN108734341A CN 108734341 A CN108734341 A CN 108734341A CN 201810395065 A CN201810395065 A CN 201810395065A CN 108734341 A CN108734341 A CN 108734341A
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- 241001123248 Arma Species 0.000 title claims abstract description 45
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- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 description 2
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- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 1
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- 238000012706 support-vector machine Methods 0.000 description 1
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- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
Description
时间点 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
负荷 | 831 | 922 | 986 | 1016 | 1097 | 1210 | 1356 | 1491 | 1677 | 1838 | 1698 | 2061 |
序号 | Xi(5) | Xi(4) | Xi(3) | Xi(2) | Xi(1) |
X1 | 1097 | 1016 | 986 | 922 | 831 |
X2 | 1210 | 1097 | 1016 | 986 | 922 |
X3 | 1356 | 1210 | 1097 | 1016 | 986 |
X4 | 1491 | 1356 | 1210 | 1097 | 1016 |
X5 | 1677 | 1491 | 1356 | 1210 | 1097 |
X6 | 1838 | 1677 | 1491 | 1356 | 1210 |
X7 | 1968 | 1838 | 1677 | 1491 | 1356 |
X8 | 2061 | 1968 | 1838 | 1677 | 1491 |
序号 | 真实值Xi(5) | 预测值(YAi) | 预测误差(Xi(5)-YAi) |
X1 | 1097 | 1103 | -6 |
X2 | 1210 | 1231 | -21 |
X3 | 1356 | 1360 | -4 |
X4 | 1491 | 1489 | 2 |
X5 | 1677 | 1618 | 59 |
X6 | 1838 | 1747 | 91 |
X7 | 1968 | 1876 | -178 |
X8 | 2061 | 2004 | 57 |
Claims (5)
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Cited By (1)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN111062516A (zh) * | 2019-11-20 | 2020-04-24 | 广西电网有限责任公司 | 一种基于gmdh多变量处理的风机出力预测的方法 |
Citations (8)
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JPS63276604A (ja) * | 1987-05-08 | 1988-11-14 | Mitsubishi Heavy Ind Ltd | プロセス制御装置 |
CN102682207A (zh) * | 2012-04-28 | 2012-09-19 | 中国科学院电工研究所 | 风电场风速超短期组合预测方法 |
CN105956722A (zh) * | 2016-06-22 | 2016-09-21 | 广东工业大学 | 一种短期风电功率的预测方法及装置 |
CN106408223A (zh) * | 2016-11-30 | 2017-02-15 | 华北电力大学(保定) | 基于气象相似日及误差校正的短期负荷预测方法 |
CN106529713A (zh) * | 2016-11-03 | 2017-03-22 | 华北电力大学(保定) | 一种基于灰色gmdh网络组合模型的风速预测方法及系统 |
CN106611243A (zh) * | 2016-12-02 | 2017-05-03 | 华北电力大学(保定) | 一种基于garch模型的风速预测残差修正方法 |
CN107085750A (zh) * | 2017-03-10 | 2017-08-22 | 广东工业大学 | 一种基于arma和ann的混合动态故障预测方法 |
CN107330149A (zh) * | 2017-05-27 | 2017-11-07 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | 基于arma和bpnn组合模型的mimu陀螺随机漂移预测方法 |
-
2018
- 2018-04-27 CN CN201810395065.9A patent/CN108734341A/zh active Pending
Patent Citations (8)
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JPS63276604A (ja) * | 1987-05-08 | 1988-11-14 | Mitsubishi Heavy Ind Ltd | プロセス制御装置 |
CN102682207A (zh) * | 2012-04-28 | 2012-09-19 | 中国科学院电工研究所 | 风电场风速超短期组合预测方法 |
CN105956722A (zh) * | 2016-06-22 | 2016-09-21 | 广东工业大学 | 一种短期风电功率的预测方法及装置 |
CN106529713A (zh) * | 2016-11-03 | 2017-03-22 | 华北电力大学(保定) | 一种基于灰色gmdh网络组合模型的风速预测方法及系统 |
CN106408223A (zh) * | 2016-11-30 | 2017-02-15 | 华北电力大学(保定) | 基于气象相似日及误差校正的短期负荷预测方法 |
CN106611243A (zh) * | 2016-12-02 | 2017-05-03 | 华北电力大学(保定) | 一种基于garch模型的风速预测残差修正方法 |
CN107085750A (zh) * | 2017-03-10 | 2017-08-22 | 广东工业大学 | 一种基于arma和ann的混合动态故障预测方法 |
CN107330149A (zh) * | 2017-05-27 | 2017-11-07 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | 基于arma和bpnn组合模型的mimu陀螺随机漂移预测方法 |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
Title |
---|
雷可为等: "《基于BP神经网络和ARIMA组合模型的中国入境游客量预测》", 《旅游学刊》 * |
顾洁等: "《基于GMDH的中长期电力负荷组合预测模型》", 《电力科学与技术学报》 * |
Cited By (1)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
CN111062516A (zh) * | 2019-11-20 | 2020-04-24 | 广西电网有限责任公司 | 一种基于gmdh多变量处理的风机出力预测的方法 |
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