CN108732647A - Storm-surge forecasting method - Google Patents
Storm-surge forecasting method Download PDFInfo
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- CN108732647A CN108732647A CN201810322479.9A CN201810322479A CN108732647A CN 108732647 A CN108732647 A CN 108732647A CN 201810322479 A CN201810322479 A CN 201810322479A CN 108732647 A CN108732647 A CN 108732647A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of storm-surge forecasting methods, including Storm Surge forecast and the forecast of storm tide time of origin, Storm Surge forecast to include：Weather monitoring station is collected between Y more than h0Tide water level data and corresponding, the weather monitoring station windward side air speed data；Foundation includes the Storm Surge database of the maximum wind velocity windward of the weather monitoring station, period mean wind speed, Storm Surge；Storm tide time of origin is forecast：Collect the time of origin data of the astronomical tide high tide level of above-mentioned weather monitoring station and the time of origin data of storm tide；Foundation includes the storm tide time of origin database of astronomical tide climax time of origin and storm tide time of origin.Beneficial effects of the present invention are：Can in advance for 24 hours or longer pre- storm tide of reporting for work surge and time of origin, for storm tide arrival before counter-measure provide guidance, have good economic benefit and social benefit.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to natural calamity forecasting technique fields, and in particular to a kind of storm-surge forecasting method.
Background technology
Storm tide is to be happened at a kind of littoral Oceanic disasters, be it is a kind of by strong atmospheric perturbation such as tropical cyclone (typhoon,
Hurricane), sea increases phenomenon extremely caused by extratropical cyclone etc..The storm tide that Bohai Sea Gulf In The Southeast Coast section occurs is mainly with temperate zone gas
It revolves based on storm tide, Typhoon Storm Surge Over is secondary, and is had the characteristics that：Storm tide occurs frequently, through analysis, Bohai Sea Gulf southeast sea
Bank storm tide occurs 1 time for average 7.6 years；Seasonal strong, storm tide has more spring now and autumn, accounts for storm tide frequency
80% or so；Storm wind accompanies, and in 52 storm tides on the books, almost all occurs along with storm wind, and wherein northeast is big
Wind is most.
Therefore, surge forecast and the Time Forecast of storm tide are particularly important to reply storm tide, and currently without corresponding
Forecasting procedure.
Invention content
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of storm-surge forecasting method, to solve existing can not effectively forecast wind
The problem of time of origin of sudden and violent tide surged with storm tide.
To achieve the above object, the technical scheme is that
A kind of storm-surge forecasting method, including Storm Surge forecast and the forecast of storm tide time of origin, wherein：
The Storm Surge is forecast：S11, weather monitoring station is collected between Y more than h0Tide water level data and
The air speed data of corresponding, the weather monitoring station windward side；S12, foundation include the weather monitoring station maximum wind velocity windward,
The Storm Surge database of period mean wind speed, Storm Surge；
The storm tide time of origin is forecast：The generation of the astronomical tide high tide level of S21, the above-mentioned weather monitoring station of collection
The time of origin data of time data and storm tide；S22, foundation include astronomical tide climax time of origin and storm tide time of origin
Storm tide time of origin database.
Preferably, Y >=30, h0≥2m。
Preferably, the weather monitoring station is arranged in bay, and the windward side of the weather monitoring station deviates from the meteorology
Seashore of the monitoring station towards formation bay.
Preferably, the period mean wind speed is the period in 5h.
Preferably, the maximum wind velocity instead of maximum by when wind speed.
Further, with maximum wind velocity windward → period mean wind speed → storm tide from the Storm Surge database
That surges finds Storm Surge.
Further, it is T to inquire into astronomical tide to find the time that astronomical climax occurs with Astronomical Tides table or periodic method0, answer
T after calculating astronomical tide climax with the method for mathematical statistics1There is storm tide in hour, then storm tide time of origin is T0+T1。
The invention has the advantages that：
Before storm tide appearance for 24 hours or in the longer time, according to meteorological department or the weather situation of ocean department offer
Or weather forecast, determine maximum wind velocity.
It is flat from the stations Cheng Kou northeaster maximum wind velocity-period according to the maximum wind velocity that weather forecast or marine forecasting determine
Equal wind speed (period is generally with 5h)-Storm Surge relation line correlation figure finds Storm Surge.
It is applied in real work, achieves good economic benefit and social benefit.
Description of the drawings
A kind of form of Fig. 1 Storm Surge databases of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a kind of form of storm tide time of origin database of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
The following examples are used to illustrate the present invention, but are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention..
Embodiment 1
A kind of storm-surge forecasting method, including Storm Surge forecast and the forecast of storm tide time of origin, wherein：
Storm Surge is forecast：S11, weather monitoring station is collected between Y more than h0Tide water level data and correspondence
, the air speed data of the windward side of the weather monitoring station；S12, foundation include maximum wind velocity windward, the period of the weather monitoring station
The Storm Surge database of mean wind speed, Storm Surge；
Storm tide time of origin is forecast：The time of origin of the astronomical tide high tide level of S21, the above-mentioned weather monitoring station of collection
The time of origin data of data and storm tide；S22, foundation include the wind of astronomical tide climax time of origin and storm tide time of origin
Sudden and violent tide time of origin database.
Embodiment 2
In specific implementation, Y >=30, h0≥2m。
Normally, weather monitoring station is arranged in bay, and the windward side of the weather monitoring station deviates from the weather monitoring
It stands towards the seashore for forming bay.
In specific implementation, period mean wind speed is the period in 5h.
In specific implementation, maximum wind velocity instead of maximum by when wind speed.
Embodiment 3
Wind is found with maximum wind velocity windward → period mean wind speed → Storm Surge from Storm Surge database
Sudden and violent tide is surged.
It is T to inquire into astronomical tide to find the time that astronomical climax occurs with Astronomical Tides table or periodic method0, using mathematical statistics
Method calculate T after astronomical tide climax1There is storm tide in hour, then storm tide time of origin is T0+T1。
The principle of the present invention is described in detail by taking the coast of southeast of Bohai Sea Gulf as an example below：
Bohai Sea Gulf coast of southeast refers to from Hebei province Qi Kou to Shandong Province strong yellow river estuary one with seashore, the area topography west
The high northeast in south is low, is littoral plain, topography is flat, and within the scope of the 30km of land side, generally in 1.0~4.0m, the gradient is height above sea level
1/10000~1/20000.For this section of seashore without apparent coastline, bank slope is gentle, and Plain argillo arenaceous type, beach is mud flat
It applies, change width is little, and general wide 5~10km is easily influenced by monsoon, is the weather shore of northeaster, is that storm tide occurs at most
Coastline.Bank has distributary, the Xinhe River Xuan Huihe, Zhang Wei, Ma Jiahe, the Dehui Xinhe River, the on foot remittance of the rivers such as astonished river.Zhang Wei Xin Hehe
Mouth sets up field of razor clam mouth tide water level station, which is the important tide water level observation station of Bohai Sea Gulf In The Southeast Coast section.
By the graviational interaction of the moon and the sun, seawater makees periodic elevating movement, and tide, rise in the evening for the fluctuation on daytime
It falls and is nighttide, be collectively referred to as tide.The tidal rule is irregular semidiurnal tide, i.e., occurs 2 climaxes and 2 Lower Low Waters, day in one day
Tidal range maximum 3.85m, minimum 1.2m, mean range is 2.2m, 4~6h of duration of rise, 6~10h of duration of fall for many years.Flood current
SW is flowed to, mean flow rate 0.45 saves, and ebb current flows to ENE, and mean flow rate 0.4 saves, this section of seashore primary tide station characteristic value is shown in
Table 1.
1 primary tide station Tide Characteristics Data-Statistics table of table
Explanation：When statistics, the high tide level formed by rain flood has been picked out.
Due to lineament, one band of Bohai Sea Gulf is storm tide prone areas.Whenever northeaster, this area often occurs
Storm tide, ponding cause disaster, and directly endanger people's life and property safety.1992,1997,2 especially big storm tides, only Shandong
Accessories during Binzhou direct economic loss is up to 1,500,000,000 yuan.The analysis and forecast for doing storm tide well, have great importance.
Storm tide is a kind of natural phenomena, its generation is mainly influenced by astronomical, meteorological, geographic factor.
Astronomical Factors
Day, the moon, different moving laws, cause tide that different periodicity is presented.When the gas such as astronomical spring tide and storm wind
When being met with as factor, often causes storm tide or storm tide is made to reinforce.
Meteorologic factor
Temperature, air pressure, wind etc. be influence storm tide meteorologic factor, induce Bohai Sea Gulf coast of southeast storm tide it is meteorological because
Element mainly has two class of typhoon and cold wave strong wind.
(1) typhoon.Typhoon is the major reason for inducing Bohai Sea Gulf bank storm tide, and this kind of storm tide is happened at 7, August part.
Typhoon is coastal to go up north, and passes through the Shandong Peninsula, into the Bohai Sea, logged in its west bank or when Liaodong Peninsula logs in, with influencing the Bohai Sea
Area causes northeaster, causes storm tide.
(2) cold wave strong wind.There are two types of the Cold Wave Weather situations for causing Bohai Sea Gulf bank, i.e. air pressure is the high southern low profile in north and cold
High-pressure type.Northern high southern low profile mostly occurs in spring and autumn, and it is the low situation in northern high south, cold front to be formed by the air pressure on boundary of Bohai Haixia
In northeast~southwest trend, strong wind by east causes Bohai Sea Gulf bank that storm tide occurs.Cold anticyclone type mostly occurred in early winter, early spring,
It is moved down east and gone down south along the river bend by northern high pressure, when cold front passes through the Bohai Sea, northeast by east strong wind occurs in sea, causes the wind in Bohai Sea Gulf
Sudden and violent tide.
Geographic factor
Geographic factor is primarily referred to as seashore wire shaped, river mouth landform, geographical location etc., under same situation, because geographically
Difference cause storm tide phenomenon to have prodigious difference.Bohai Sea Gulf shape enters sea as the small cucurbit of the big mouth of tripe, trend through straits
Gulf advances to gulf bottom, and tidal wave chance bank, which is obstructed, generates back wave, and gulf bottom tidal level is caused to steeply rise.Bohai Sea Gulf coast of southeast position
In the bottom of cucurbit, coastline is substantially vertical with trend, is the weather shore of northeaster, concentrates, have convenient for tidal wave energy
The geographical conditions for generating more damp calamities, as long as wind-force is big, lasts length, often result in big when spring, winter east wind prevailing, northeaster
Storm tide.On the other hand, Bohai Sea Gulf coast of southeast is flat, and cross section of river width is shallow, and river mouth easily forms tidal bore, seawater at horn-like
Tens kilometers or even over one hundred kilometer often are traced back along river mouth, constitutes the geographical conditions of more damp calamities.
Field of razor clam mouth tide water level station is in the weather shore of Bohai Sea Gulf northeaster, and when storm tide arrives, tide water level variation is apparent, and has
Long series tidewater observational data, can reflect one zonal tide SEA LEVEL VARIATION situation of Bohai Sea Gulf coast of southeast well.Mashan is meteorological
It stands near the stations Cheng Kou, and has the same period weather observation data of long series.The weather observation data and Cheng Kou of the sub- weather station in Mashan
Tide water level observational data of standing is representative, as the basic data for establishing forecasting model of surging.
Storm Surge refers to the difference for surveying highest water level and corresponding time astronomical tide tidal level, and major influence factors have wind
Power, wind direction, air hydrostatic effects and stormy waves cause seawater to bank conveying capacity etc., and wherein wind-force, wind direction is the head in factors
Want factor.When northeaster occurs in Bohai Offshore, Bohai Sea Gulf coast of southeast one is will result in occurring larger surging.If northeast
At the incoming tide, it is suitable that wind pushes away tide to strong wind positive value astronomical tide, it will higher tide water level occurs.It chooses Cheng Kou and stands 1954~1987 years and be more than
The corresponding Wind Data in the sub- weather station of 31 tide water level data and Mashan of 2.0m establishes the stations Cheng Kou northeaster maximum wind velocity-
Period mean wind speed (period generally uses 5h)-Storm Surge relation line correlation figure, prog chart of as surging (see Fig. 1).Northeast
Strong wind maximum wind velocity with maximum by when wind speed replace, northeaster period mean wind speed refer to peak level occur before northeast it is big
Wind by when average value.
Data (Astronomical Tides table inquires into astronomical tide with periodic method) analysis shows, Cheng Kou stand a band storm tide occur
Near the climax of astronomical tide, and majority appears in 1~3h after astronomical tide climax.The stations Cheng Kou astronomical tide high tide level is established to occur
Time-storm tide time of origin correlation figure (see Fig. 2) can forecast that storm tide highest water level occurs using the above related figure
Time.
The evaluation of method method of the present invention according to《Hydrological Information and Forecasting specification》(SL250-2000) it carries out, storm tide highest water level
Permissible error be calculated as follows, i.e.,
In formula, δ is permissible error (taking two-decimal)；Δ t is leading time, unit h1To surge when actual measurement highest water level,
Unit m；h2For constant, the 1/2 of normal tide prediction permissible error is taken, 0.15m is taken；K is coefficient, takes 0.20.
Process is as follows in specific implementation：
Before storm tide appearance for 24 hours or in the longer time, according to meteorological department or the weather situation of ocean department offer
Or weather forecast, determine maximum wind velocity.
It is flat from the stations Cheng Kou northeaster maximum wind velocity-period according to the maximum wind velocity that weather forecast or marine forecasting determine
Equal wind speed (period is generally with 5h)-Storm Surge relation line correlation figure finds Storm Surge.
Storm Surge will be checked in be added with astronomical tide high-tide level, the storm tide highest water level exactly forecast.
Storm tide highest water level time of occurrence is forecast
Bohai Sea coast of southeast has 2 climaxes and 2 Lower Low Waters in one cycle, and storm tide majority appears in astronomical tidal height
Near tide.The date and time that northeaster maximum wind velocity according to weather report occurs (or is inquired into Astronomical Tides table with periodic method
Astronomical tide) find the astronomical tide high tide level time of occurrence after strong wind occurs.First astronomical tide high tide level is swept with northeaster
Time of origin looks into Fig. 2, just checks in pre- the calling time of storm tide highest water level appearance.If northeaster continues to scrape, the can be used
Two astronomical tide high tide level time of occurrence look into Fig. 2 again, just check in pre- the calling time of storm tide another highest water level appearance.
Storm tide experimental forecast model is applied in real work, achieves good economic benefit and society imitates
Benefit.This is 1997 and the especially big storm-surge forecasting achievement (being shown in Table 2) of Bohai Sea Gulf coast of southeast in 2003 of the stations Cheng Kou.
The especially big storm-surge forecasting outcome table in the stations 2 Cheng Kou of table
Although above having used general explanation and specific embodiment, the present invention is described in detail, at this
On the basis of invention, it can be made some modifications or improvements, this will be apparent to those skilled in the art.Therefore,
These modifications or improvements without departing from theon the basis of the spirit of the present invention belong to the scope of protection of present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of storm-surge forecasting method, which is characterized in that it is forecast including Storm Surge forecast and storm tide time of origin,
In：
The Storm Surge is forecast：S11, weather monitoring station is collected between Y more than h0Tide water level data and correspondence
, the air speed data of the windward side of the weather monitoring station；S12, foundation include maximum wind velocity windward, the period of the weather monitoring station
The Storm Surge database of mean wind speed, Storm Surge；
The storm tide time of origin is forecast：The time of origin of the astronomical tide high tide level of S21, the above-mentioned weather monitoring station of collection
The time of origin data of data and storm tide；S22, foundation include the wind of astronomical tide climax time of origin and storm tide time of origin
Sudden and violent tide time of origin database.
2. storm-surge forecasting method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that Y >=30, h0≥2m。
3. storm-surge forecasting method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the weather monitoring station is arranged in bay
Interior, the windward side of the weather monitoring station forms the seashore in bay away from weather monitoring station direction.
4. storm-surge forecasting method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the period mean wind speed be 5h in when
Section.
5. storm-surge forecasting method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the maximum wind velocity instead of maximum by when
Wind speed.
6. storm-surge forecasting method according to any one of claims 1-5, which is characterized in that from the Storm Surge
Storm Surge is found with maximum wind velocity windward → period mean wind speed → Storm Surge in database.
7. storm-surge forecasting method according to claim 6, which is characterized in that inquire into day with Astronomical Tides table or periodic method
Wen Chao finds the time that astronomical climax occurs as T0, T after astronomical tide climax is calculated using the method for mathematical statistics1Hour occurs
Storm tide, then storm tide time of origin is T0+T1。
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