CN108710971A - Marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability computational methods based on Weibull distribution - Google Patents
Marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability computational methods based on Weibull distribution Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses the computational methods of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability based on Weibull distribution, include the following steps：S1, every operation execution situation within the different work period, recording period t, and obtain handling situations with actual count and compared, obtain resource free time degree of the resource x in time t；S2, it determines the parameter that marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource confidence level calculates, and compiles its corresponding index data and analyzed, obtain resource confidence levels of the resource x in time t；S3, according to resource confidence level and resource free time degree computing resource availability.The present invention considers marshalling yard's bottle-neck section train, adjusts machine and vehicle occupancy situation, utilize the correlation theories such as dynamic network Resource Availability measure, design marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource availability computational methods, bottle-neck section track switch group resource utilization can be analysed in depth, for the reasonable disposition of marshalling yard's resource, advanced optimizes operation route and provide according to and refer to.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to marshalling yard's bottle-neck section studying technological domains, and in particular to a kind of marshalling yard based on Weibull distribution
Throat point group resource availability computational methods.
Background technology
With the construction of marshalling station comprehensive automatic system, basic scheduling information constantly improve so that making station control department
It has ready conditions and actual resource is effectively monitored using abundant information resources.Actual resource is according to marshalling yard's continuous productive process
Sequence includes arriving hair line resource, hump resource, shunting line resource, shunting neck resource, tune machine resource etc..The throat of marshalling yard controls
The input and output of wagon flow and adjust the traveling path of machine, usually whether directly affect the overall operation efficiency of marshalling yard.From
The utilization power of the angle analysis marshalling yard throat of resource counts the availability of throat area resource, and can be slapped as relying on
The service condition of each resource of bottle-neck section at times is held, the utilization rate to further provide for resource provides foundation.
Currently, both at home and abroad from different perspectives to marshalling yard's throat using being studied.Establish station bottleneck operation
Area, which occupies, arranges the network optimization and the compound hierarchical decision model of throat work capacity, and has carried out theoretical validation；By on the diagram
The method for finding shortest path determines the Rational Arrangement of route, and provides the determination method for directly interfering track switch group；Based on cluster
Resource characteristic proposes a kind of cluster job scheduling method based on availability, and proves that the algorithm improves by comparative simulation
The efficiency of cluster and the completion efficiency of operation.State's Intranet is solving marshalling yard's train change or is sorting to make, and usually provides each entity
Source is converted into mathematical problem and is solved as constraints, seldom being studied using attribute for resource.It is existing more
Pertinent literature inquires into marshalling yard's bottle-neck section and track switch group capacity calculation with optimization problem, but for marshalling yard's bottle-neck section road
The utilization state of trouble group resource different time, resource availability etc., which have no, to be related to.
Invention content
For above-mentioned deficiency in the prior art, marshalling yard's throat point group provided by the invention based on Weibull distribution
The computational methods of resource availability solve in the prior art not to the profit of marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource different time
The problem of carrying out calculating analysis with state, resource availability.
In order to reach foregoing invention purpose, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is：Marshalling yard's pharynx based on Weibull distribution
The computational methods of venturi trouble group resource availability, include the following steps：
S1, every operation execution situation within the different work period, recording period t, and obtain operation with actual count
Situation is compared, and resource free time degree of the resource x in time t is obtained；
S2, it determines the parameter that marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource confidence level calculates, and compiles its corresponding index number
According to being analyzed, resource confidence levels of the resource x in time t is obtained；
S3, according to resource confidence level and resource free time degree computing resource availability；
In the step S1, resource free time degree is the task frequency number that throat point group can also be handled in a period
With the ratio of theoretical maximum frequency of usage；
In affiliated step S2, resource confidence level is throat point group to fulfil assignment the probability of plan in a period, is
The amount of time to time change；
In the step S3, resource availability is throat point group can start a job and energy in a period of time
The probability of this work is completed under conditions of constraining certain time；
The theoretical maximum frequency of usage is to meet the minimum working time constraint of equipment, facility, working sequence, making
Under industry equilibrium condition, using comprehensive resources maximum using the frequency as target, time that an equipment or facility use within the unit interval
Number.
Further, the step S1 is specially：
S1-1, it is directed to marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group, analyzes each track switch group job correlated series, establishes topological network knot
Structure；
S1-2, according to topology network architecture, determine object function using time series and optimal method, and according to items
Resource time space is constrained, and the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model of throat area resource is established；
S1-3, the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model according to throat area resource, statistics resource x are actually utilized at times
The theoretical maximum frequency of usage situation of situation and resource, according to practical utilization power and the theoretical maximum frequency of usage of resource when
Half interval contour calculates the work limit value of utility that track switch group resource x is used within the t periodsWith the estimated work used
Curve limit value of utility
S1-4, basisWithComputing resource free time degree；
The calculation formula of the resource free time degree is：
In formula,Indicate the working curve marginal utility value that resource x is actually used within the t periods；
Indicate resource x estimated working curve marginal utility values used within the t periods.
Further, the step S1-1 is specially：
Each resource of bottle-neck section is considered as point set, the circuit between each track switch group resource is considered as side collection, spatially position and enemy
Route deployment scenarios will be put and side connects, occupied on unit time basis in statistics marshalling yard items operation, according to when
Between the application of sequence method calculated, obtain resource x performed job sequence ij and each sequence within a work period
Arrange occupied initial timeAnd the end timeJob sequence ij is occupied every track switch group resource to demarcate, is determined
The optimal route L of operationijAnd conflicting route group, build complete topology network architecture.
Further, which is characterized in that in the step S1-2：
If the minimum time of operation X, Y, Z operation of the roads i jth train is respectivelySame train difference is made
Industry Xij、Yij、ZijBetween there are certain operation precedence relationship, be provided as industry Xij、Yij、ZijAt the beginning of and the end time difference
ForWith
If Xij、Yij、ZijIt is sequentially to arrange, then there are space constraints：
If different work is related to same resource, section is occupied in different times for common resource needs, and the activity duration
Sequence meets operation tandem requirement, then there are space constraints：
In formula, n indicates that station track sum, m indicate train sum；
Hostile operation group is divided according to principle is occupied when operation resource difference
WhereinThe set of station track and train is indicated respectively, then Existence restraint condition：：
In formula, t 'Operating room every、t″Operating room every、t′″Operating room everyThe minimum time interval between different work is indicated respectively, is made by items
The Resource release time of the occupied device resource of industry determines；
The object function includes object function one and object function two：
The object function one is：
In formulaIndicate i-th station track by the end time of+1 train occupation of jth；GijIndicate i-th station track by jth
The initial time of train occupation；
The object function two is：
In formula,At the beginning of indicating that i-th station track jth train work occupies resource；Indicate i-th station track jth
Train work occupies the end time of resource；
According to the constraints and object function, the theoretical maximum frequency of usage for obtaining the throat area resource calculates mould
Type is：
Further, the working curve marginal utility value in the step S1-3 is：It is set when one unit interval of every increase
Standby or facility staff amount value added；
On the basis of counting the working strength of known device or facility within certain continuous time, rendering apparatus or facility
Workload-time graph f (t)x, the working curve marginal utility value of T moment equipment or facility is numerically equal to work
The tangent slope of point of the amount-time graph corresponding to the T moment.
Further, which is characterized in that the calculation formula of the step S2 resource confidence levels is：
In formula, A ' (x)tIndicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t periods；
Indicate resource x practical occupied times when carrying out operation i；
Indicate resource x occupied times according to plan when carrying out operation i；
Indicate that resource x practical occupied times are more than the number for planning holding time when progress operation i；
nt-1Indicate the operation sum that resource x is executed within the t-1 periods；
Tt ywIndicate that resource x is since station according to construction plan carries out the occupied time of constructing within the t periods；
θt ywIndicate resource x by the occupied probability of station construction；
Tt xwIndicate that resource x carries out the emergency maintenance construction occupied time due to failure within the t periods；
TxIndicate the expected life of resource x；
εtIndicate the resource service condition proportion shared when calculating confidence level within the t periods；
A″(x)t-1Indicate the confidence level of the resource x within the t-1 periods；
εtIndicate the resource service condition proportion shared when calculating confidence level within the t periods；
The εtCalculation formula be：
Further, the expected life T that the track switch group resource goes outx, by the cumulative failure probability function call of resource
It arrives, the cumulative failure probability function is to have informed the probability to break down in the period in resource apparatus work, obtains track switch group
The expected life T that resource goes outxFor：
In formula, F (t) indicates to break down and can not complete the probability of task in period t in resource, indicates the tired of resource
Product failure probability；
The accumulative failure function by Weibull distribution obtain for：
In formula,For the estimated value of form parameter；
The time of cumulative activation of the t ' expressions resource since last maintenance or replacing；
For the estimated value of calibration parameters；
The estimated value of the form parameter and calibration parameters by Maximum-likelihood estimation obtain for：
Further, the calculation formula of the resource availability is：
A(x)t=αtA′(x)t+(1-αt)tA″(x)t (13)
In formula, A (x)tIndicate the availability of the resource x within the t periods；
A′(x)tIndicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t periods；
A″(x)tIndicate resource x relative free degree in the t periods；
αtIndicate resource confidence level proportion during computing resource availability；
The αtCalculation formula be：
Beneficial effects of the present invention are：The present invention considers marshalling yard's bottle-neck section train, adjusts machine and vehicle occupancy situation, utilizes
The correlation theories such as dynamic network Resource Availability measure, bottle-neck section track switch group resource availability calculating side of design marshalling yard
Method can analyse in depth bottle-neck section track switch group resource utilization, be marshalling yard's resource reasonable disposition, advanced optimize operation into
Road provides according to and refers to.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability based on Weibull distribution in embodiment provided by the invention
Computational methods implementation flow chart.
Fig. 2 is resource availability computational methods implementation flow chart in embodiment provided by the invention.
Fig. 3 is marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group position relationship conversion figure in embodiment provided by the invention.
Fig. 4 is marshalling yard's bottle-neck section actual resource working curve diagram in embodiment provided by the invention.
Fig. 5 is marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resources untilization time statistical chart in embodiment provided by the invention.
Fig. 6 is that marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource availability counts schematic diagram in embodiment provided by the invention.
Fig. 7 is Lanzhou north marshalling yard bottle-neck section conflicting route relational graph in embodiment provided by the invention.
Fig. 8 is that Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group Resource Calculation is counted with total degree in embodiment provided by the invention
Figure.
Fig. 9 is bottle-neck section track switch group resource practice total degree statistics in Lanzhou northern station in embodiment provided by the invention
Figure.
Figure 10 is bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources free time degree statistical chart in Lanzhou northern station in embodiment provided by the invention.
Figure 11 is Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources availability statistical chart in embodiment provided by the invention.
Figure 12 is bottle-neck section 9 bottle-neck section thermodynamic charts in Lanzhou northern station in embodiment provided by the invention.
Figure 13 is bottle-neck section 12 bottle-neck section thermodynamic charts in Lanzhou northern station in embodiment provided by the invention.
Specific implementation mode
The specific implementation mode of the present invention is described below, in order to facilitate understanding by those skilled in the art this hair
It is bright, it should be apparent that the present invention is not limited to the ranges of specific implementation mode, for those skilled in the art,
As long as various change is in the spirit and scope of the present invention that the attached claims limit and determine, these variations are aobvious and easy
See, all are using the innovation and creation of present inventive concept in the row of protection.
As shown in Figure 1, the computational methods of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability based on Weibull distribution, including with
Lower step：
S1, every operation execution situation within the different work period, recording period t, and obtain operation with actual count
Situation is compared, and resource free time degree of the resource x in time t is obtained.
Above-mentioned resource free time degree be the task frequency number that can also handle in a period of throat point group with it is theoretical most
The ratio of big frequency of usage.
As shown in Fig. 2, the specific method of above-mentioned steps S1 is：
S1-1, it is directed to marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group, analyzes each track switch group job correlated series, establishes topological network knot
Structure；
For marshalling yard's bottle-neck section when carrying out operation, a certain resource of bottle-neck section can only be shared by an operation on space-time
With, carry out bottle-neck section track switch group resource availability calculate before, need to bottle-neck section track switch group resource free time degree and maximum utilization
Situation is counted.This statistics generally uses interest rate method, and graphical method etc., there are larger to think influence factor so that throat
There is large error in track switch group resource free time degree situation statistics.
In topology, geometric figure or space continuously change the property that can also be remained unchanged after shape, only between consideration physics
Shapes and sizes of the position relationship without considering them.
Each resource of bottle-neck section is considered as point set, the circuit between each track switch group resource is considered as side collection, spatially position and enemy
Route deployment scenarios will be put and side connects, occupied on unit time basis in statistics marshalling yard items operation, according to when
Between the application of sequence method calculated, obtain resource x performed job sequence ij and each sequence within a work period
Arrange occupied initial timeAnd the end timeJob sequence ij is occupied every track switch group resource to demarcate, is determined
The optimal route L of operationijAnd conflicting route group, complete topology network architecture as shown in Figure 3 can be built.
It is that whole of the every job sequence of execution needed for marshalling yard's bottle-neck section from starting to end is feasible as shown in Figure 3
Diameter is the set of station track and track switch group that each job sequence may pass through successively from right to left.
S1-2, according to topology network architecture, determine object function using time series and optimal method, and according to items
Resource time space is constrained, and the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model of throat area resource is established；
Theoretical maximum frequency of usage is to meet the minimum working time constraint of equipment, facility, working sequence, operation equal
Under the conditions of weighing apparatus, using comprehensive resources maximum using the frequency as target, number that an equipment or facility use within the unit interval.
Marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource maximum utilization power is calculated to be unfolded based on marshalling yard's bottle-neck section job sequence,
In the case of marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group and other equipment resource are limited, analyze each equipment it is occupied by every operation when
Between, it determines each resource free time sequence, determines the optimal route of each operation in conjunction with topological network figure, and carry out conflicting route sieve
Choosing.
If the minimum time of operation X, Y, Z operation of the roads i jth train is respectivelySame train is different
Operation Xij、Yij、Zij... between there are certain operation precedence relationship, be provided as industry Xij、Yij、ZijAt the beginning of and at the end of
Between be respectivelyWith
If Xij、Yij、ZijIt is sequentially to arrange, then there are space constraints
Had to be larger than at the beginning of same train job sequence subsequent job item or equal to preceding paragraph operation at the end of
Between, it should meetDifferent work is related to same resource, and common resource needs
Will in different times section it is occupied, and activity duration sequence meets operation tandem requirement, then there are space constraints：
In formula, n indicates that station track sum, m indicate train sum；
Different station track operations may also can generate conflict on time and space, it is therefore desirable to distinguish hostile operation；Same
Time can only carry out an operation in hostile job sequence group, and this operation meets above-mentioned constraints.It is provided according to operation
Principle is occupied when the difference of source divides hostile operation groupWherein
The set of station track and train is indicated respectively, then Existence restraint condition：
In formula, t 'Operating room every、t″Operating room every、t′″Operating room everyThe minimum time interval between different work is indicated respectively, is made by items
The Resource release time of the occupied device resource of industry determines；
One day occupied maximum time of above-mentioned resource is 1440min, is required per personal share in the case where ensureing to pick up number
Road free time is minimum, it is assumed that M is a prodigious number, then there is object function
In formulaIndicate i-th station track by the end time of+1 train occupation of jth；GijIndicate i-th station track by jth
The initial time of train occupation.
In order to ensure that the working load of each station track is unlikely to excessively high, each station track daily work amount need to keep relative equilibrium, then
There is another object function
In formula,At the beginning of indicating that i-th station track jth train work occupies resource；Indicate i-th station track jth
Train work occupies the end time of resource；
Comprehensive each station track utilization power, the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model for obtaining the throat area resource are：
S1-3, the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model according to throat area resource, statistics resource x are actually utilized at times
The theoretical maximum frequency of usage situation of situation and resource, according to practical utilization power and the theoretical maximum frequency of usage of resource when
Half interval contour calculates the work limit value of utility that track switch group resource x is used within the t periodsWith the estimated work used
Curve limit value of utility
Above-mentioned working curve marginal utility is the value added of equipment or facility staff amount when one unit interval of every increase.
On the basis of counting known device or facility working strength within a certain period of time, rendering apparatus or facility workload-when
Half interval contour f (t)x, the working curve marginal utility value of T moment equipment or facility is numerically equal to workload-time graph and exists
The tangent slope of point corresponding to the T moment.
S1-4, basisWithComputing resource free time degree；
The calculation formula of the resource free time degree is：
In formula,Indicate the working curve marginal utility value that resource x is actually used within the t periods；
Indicate resource x estimated working curve marginal utility values used within the t times.
The daily running time of marshalling yard's throat area resource and Estimated Time Of Operation are as shown in figure 4, due to having a meal, joining
The noncontrollable factors such as the various controllable factors such as class, and plan delay execution, equipment fault lead to marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group
The resource daily working time is often few more many than estimated operable time.
In Fig. 4, in moment T, the bottle-neck section track switch group level of resources utilization is numerically equal to daily working time accumulation
Curve moment T slope, so the availability 1-A " (x) of the moment track switch group resourcetEqual to half interval contour in actual work
With Estimated Time Of Operation curve in the ratio between the slope of moment T, A " (x)tThe as idle degree of track switch group resource.
S2, it determines the parameter that marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource confidence level calculates, and compiles its corresponding index number
According to being analyzed, resource confidence levels of the resource x in time t is obtained；
Resource confidence level is throat point group to fulfil assignment the probability of plan in a period, is time to time change
Amount；
The calculation formula of step S2 resource confidence levels is：
In formula, A ' (x)tIndicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t periods；
Indicate resource x practical occupied times when carrying out operation i；
Indicate resource x occupied times according to plan when carrying out operation i；
Indicate that resource x practical occupied times are more than the number for planning holding time when progress operation i；
nt-1Indicate the operation sum that resource x is executed within the t-1 periods；
Tt ywIndicate that resource x is since station according to construction plan carries out the occupied time of constructing within the t periods；
θt ywIndicate resource x by the occupied probability of station construction；
Tt xwIndicate that resource x carries out the emergency maintenance construction occupied time due to failure within the t periods；
TxIndicate the expected life of resource x；
εtIndicate the resource service condition proportion shared when calculating confidence level within the t periods；
A″(x)t-1Indicate the confidence level of the resource x within the t-1 periods；
εtIndicate the resource service condition proportion shared when calculating confidence level within the t periods；
εtCalculation formula be：
In formula, A ' (x)t-1Indicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t-1 periods；
A′(x)t-2Indicate resource x relative free degree in the t-2 periods；
The endurance expectation T that above-mentioned track switch group resource goes outx, obtained by the cumulative failure probability function of resource, accumulation is lost
Effect probability function is to have informed the probability to break down in the period in resource apparatus work, and obtaining the estimation that track switch group resource goes out makes
With time limit TxFor：
In formula, F (t) indicates to break down and can not complete the probability of task in period t in resource, indicates the tired of resource
Product failure probability；
Wherein, cumulative failure function is obtained by Weibull distribution；
Weibull distribution is obtained according to weakest environment model or series model, can preferably reflect fault in material and
Influence of the stress raiser to material fatigue life has incremental crash rate, is preferably suitable for the abrasion of electrical category product
The cumulative distribution function of the distribution pattern of cumulative failure, Weibull distribution is the exponential distribution function of extension, and can be converted into
Exponential distribution, rayleigh distributed and approximate normal distribution etc., compared with other statistical distributions, Weibull distribution has stronger adaptation
Property；
Mostly mechanically and electrically class equipment, the equipment are carrying out checkout facility to marshalling yard's bottle-neck section equipment before,
Minimum life is more than 0, and the service life is random variable of continuous type, and two parameters of Weibull can be selected according to its numerical distribution characteristic
It is handled, the cumulative failure function expression of two parameters of Weibull is：
In formula,For the estimated value of form parameter；
The time of cumulative activation of the t ' expressions resource since last maintenance or replacing；
For the estimated value of calibration parameters；
The probability density of distribution is：
In formula：γ is form parameter；The time of cumulative activation of the t ' expressions resource since last maintenance or replacing；λ is
Calibration parameters indicate the peak condition of resource longevity distribution curve；According to actual conditions it is found that throat point group resource it is most short
Operable time can not possibly be less than 0, therefore when calculating the cumulative failure probability of throat point group resource, only it need to consider t ' >=0
Situation.
The historical failure data of each resource of throat point group is analyzed, the service life of each track switch group device resource can be obtained
Sequential, when historical data is more comprehensive, the historical failure data that can choose n resource is analyzed, and is estimated using maximum likelihood
Meter carries out the parameter Estimation of Weibull distribution.
If the non-failure operation time sequence of certain class track switch group resource is T '=s [t′1,t′2,…,t′n], it is known that Wei Bu
Your distribution density function is f (t ', λ, γ), and x >=0 can obtain likelihood function：
The logarithmic function is taken to be：
Local derviation is asked to λ, γ, and is enabled
It obtains：
According to the property of Weibull distribution it is found that as T '~F (λ, γ), Y=lnT ' obedience the extreme value distributions, and there are γ
=1/ σ, λ=eu；It can thus be concluded that in Weibull distribution unknown parameter estimationWherein：WithThe optimum linearity of shown u and σ is constant
Estimation coefficient；The cumulative failure function that throat point group resource can be obtained is：
In formula,For the estimated value of form parameter；
The time of cumulative activation of the t ' expressions resource since last maintenance or replacing；
For the estimated value of calibration parameters；
The estimated value of form parameter and calibration parameters by Maximum-likelihood estimation obtain for：
When data volume further reduces, information at the time of equipment fails is not obtained in data acquisition phase, this
Shi Wufa carries out the calculating of throat point group resource cumulative failure function by the above method, can use the reliable of non-failure data
Property assessment and life prediction in method estimated；Acquire one group of non-failure data T "=s [t″1,t″2,…t″n], track switch group
The confidence lower limit that the confidence level of reliable resources service life T is α is：
Wherein confidence level value is generally 85%, F in formula0Indicate expected resource original failure probability, γ0For minimum expected
Form parameter, value are the minimum value of such resource form parameter at the more full station of other data.
The unilateral confidence upper limit that the confidence level of track switch group resource cumulative failure probability is α is：
After throat point group resource breaks down and repairs, it is believed that restore initial conditions, cumulative failure probability is extensive
It is reset condition again, resource accumulation usage time starts to count again.
S3, according to resource confidence level and resource free time degree computing resource availability；
In the step S3, resource availability is throat point group can start a job and energy in a period of time
The probability of this work is completed under conditions of constraining certain time；
The calculation formula of above-mentioned resource availability is：
A(x)t=αtA′(x)t+(1-αt)tA″(x)t (20)
In formula, A (x)tIndicate the availability of the resource x within the t periods；
A′(x)tIndicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t periods；
A″(x)tIndicate the resource x relative free degree within the t periods；
αtIndicate resource confidence level proportion during computing resource availability；
αtCalculation formula be：
Wherein, A ' (x)t-1Indicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t-1 periods；
A′(x)t-2Indicate resource x relative free degree in the t-2 periods；
Bottle-neck section track switch group resource can will not only consider bottle-neck section track switch group resource free time degree with situation, also consider its work
The degree of stability of work gives resource certain intensity in certain period of time, can investigate resource be completed with higher confidence level.
Historical data statistical result used in marshalling yard's bottle-neck section resource availability, be it is changed with the propulsion of time,
The performance of Historical Jobs task can have an impact the availability of the resource.Historical Jobs are fulfiled ahead of schedule, or with compared with
High quality can proportionately improve its resource availability to a certain extent on time, and the delay of Historical Jobs is completed, or with compared with
Difference quality measurement completion can also reduce its resource availability, and the run time of throat area resource and its available stock are time-varying parameter, are compiled
Group station bottle-neck section utilization power can be expressed as Fig. 5 and as shown in Figure 6.
Fig. 5 is the statistical conditions schematic diagram that multiple resources use the time, is counted according to the different classifications of resource, can be with
Cleaning intuitively compares various resources in the usage degree of different periods, can also test the resource free time degree being calculated
Card；Fig. 6 is the more resource availabilities of bottle-neck section-time graph schematic diagram, and different resource can be visually known not by Fig. 7
With the availability under the time, foundation is provided for analysis station operation.
In one embodiment of the invention, it provides and is carried out so that method provided by the invention to be applied in real case
Analyze the process calculated：
It is analyzed with the data of Lanzhou north marshalling yard, the period is 24 hours.The Lanzhou northern station station tracks Receiving yaxd 1-6 connect row
Train is reached, the station tracks 7-12 connect downlink and reach train.If each station track receiving route holding time is 10 minutes, the operation minimum time
For 25min, it is 5 minutes that each station track, which pushes to hump, picks up into times such as sections, and the hump disassembling operation time is 30 minutes.To orchid
State northern station bottle-neck section track switch is grouped, and determines every operation occupancy situation.
1. throat point group resources untilization cumulative number is analyzed；
Since the roads 1-6 uplink picks up operation with disassembling operation in the presence of conflicting, the roads 7-12 locomotive enters section operation and disassembling operation
There are conflicts to establish conflicting route relational graph as shown in Figure 7, determine conflicting route group for clearly each route hostile relations.
Lanzhou north marshalling yard throat region is converted to topology network architecture, using the algorithm of formula (6) to Lanzhou northern station
Bottle-neck section track switch group theoretical origin situation is calculated between Receiving yaxd and switchyard, is united according to result of calculation time segment
Meter draws bottle-neck section track switch group resource occupation frequency meter, as shown in table 1.
1 Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group Resource Calculation of table uses cumulative frequency
There is some difference for the utilization degree between different track switch groups as can be seen from Table 1, and maximum different value comes across 22
Number between track switch group and No. 36 track switch groups, difference value 182.There is certain close with number and its spatial distribution in different track switch groups
System, it is relatively busy close to track switch group utilization at bottle-neck section entrance, and there are the track switch group into road of more parallel route compared with
For the free time.
Lanzhou north marshalling yard bottle-neck section track switch group practice number in one day is counted at times, can be obtained
Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group resource practice cumulative frequency table.
2 Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group resource practice cumulative frequency of table
From the utilization degree that can be further confirmed in table 2 between different track switch groups, there is some difference, and part variation
Larger, accumulation is with the maximum No. 18 track switch groups of number and accumulation with the number difference between No. 36 track switch groups of number minimum
Be 108, from real data statistics it can also be seen that different track switch group with number with its spatial distribution there are certain relationship, lean on
Track switch group utilization is relatively busy at nearly bottle-neck section entrance, and there are the track switch group into road of the more parallel route more free time
Rule.
Each track switch group theoretical calculation service condition and actual use situation, selected part track switch group (2- are obtained according to statistics
No. 20) it counts draw it with the cumulative figure of number, as shown in Figure 8 and Figure 9 at times.
Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 be respectively part throat point group calculate it is cumulative and actually use that number is cumulative, and comparison can with number
To find out, certain linear growth trend is presented in two figures, and the growth trend situation of each track switch group number is more similar.Thus
As it can be seen that in marshalling yard's actual job environment, the use of bottle-neck section track switch group job resource exists due to space-time setting
Certain proportion relation, there is also certain similitudes in growth trend for the track switch group that is mutually related.
2 throat point group resource free time were analyzed；
On the basis of bottle-neck section track switch group each period of statistics using number, using MATLAB curve-fitting methods
Each throat point group application curve is fitted, and calculates corresponding throat point group at each period node T and uses
On situation curvePoint andSlope at point, according to calculating Lanzhou northern station throat shown in formula (7)
Area's track switch group resource free time degree, statistics are as shown in table 3.
3 Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group resource free time degree of table
The resource free time degree being calculated at times in 24 hours according to 2-40 track switches group is counted in conjunction with Tables 1 and 2
Lanzhou north marshalling yard bottle-neck section track switch group resource frequency of use situation, be weighted, bottle-neck section track switch group can be obtained
Resource comprehensive free time degree.Idle degree combination track switch group resource frequency of usage, statistics is weighted in different periods, can be preferably
Reflect bottle-neck section track switch group resource entirety idle condition.The Lanzhou north marshalling yard bottle-neck section comprehensive resources free time degree feelings being calculated
Condition is as shown in table 4.
4 Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources free time degree of table
It is as shown in Figure 10 to draw Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources free time degree statistical chart；It can from Figure 10
Go out, different time sections bottle-neck section track switch group resource free time degree differs greatly, and due to the complexity and fluctuation of handling situations, pharynx
Certain fluctuation situation is presented in larynx area resource free time degree in 24 hours one day, and 4h is spaced about between wave crest.
3. throat point group resource availability is analyzed；
Mean value is taken according to Lanzhou north marshalling yard historical statistical data, is taken in example calculationsValue is 15min,For
20min,It is 0.2, Tt ywMean value is 5min,It is 0.1, Tt xwIt is taken as 10min, ε0It is 0.5,
According to historical data situation, the crash rate of throat point group resource is relatively low, convenient in order to calculate, and takesValue is 0.01, according to public affairs
Formula (7) can obtain A ' (x) in example0It is 66.27%.
Since bottle-neck section road branch group number amount is more, after counting bottle-neck section difference track switch group frequency of usage, in conjunction with single road
Trouble group resource availability weighted calculation can obtain bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources availability；Bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources
Availability is the probability metrics of bottle-neck section track switch group resource overall usability.
In above-mentioned calculating step, Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group resource comprehensive free time degree situation has been obtained, in conjunction with
Resource availability A ' (x)t, Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group can be calculated to obtain according to formula (7), formula (8) and formula (20)
Resource comprehensive availability is as shown in table 5.
5 Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources availability of table
As shown in Table 5, in 24 hours one day, the maximum value of Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group resource comprehensive availability goes out
Be 74.06% when present time section 23, when minimum value comes across period 16, minimum value 28.02%, maximum value with it is minimum
The difference of value is 46.04%, illustrates that there are larger differences in different time sections bottle-neck section track switch group availability.Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section
Track switch group resource comprehensive availability annual average is 51.42%, illustrates that the bottle-neck section resource availability is moderate, and handling situations are more suitable
In, even there is part ability to be used.It is possible thereby to which angle value can be used by real-time computing resource, the variation rule of history are grasped
Rule, foundation is provided for shop job scheduling.
Figure 11 reflects the fluctuation situation of Lanzhou northern station bottle-neck section track switch group resource comprehensive availability, illustrates track switch group resource
In different periods service condition on the one, there is some difference, and operation equilibrium situation is not satisfactory, by calculating understands that scale can be used
Quasi- difference is 0.1402.
The feasibility and validity of method provided by the invention are demonstrated by examples detailed above, and can be seen that：
(1) marshalling yard's bottle-neck section is due to track switch group Spacial allocation of resources relationship and its time series situation of operation, not
With the frequency of use of period each track switch group resource, there is some difference；
(2) marshalling yard's bottle-neck section difference track switch group resource free time degree and availability are inserted within the same period there are larger
Value, there is also larger differences in different time sections for bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources availability；
(3) marshalling yard operation has planned and a certain range of fluctuation, and bottle-neck section comprehensive resources availability is one
Certain fluctuation situation is presented in it, 4h-6h is spaced about between wave crest；
(4) marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group comprehensive resources free time degree to comprehensive resources can with stock there are large effect, two
Person's time graph similarity is higher, and one section of curves degree is between 70%-85%.
In one embodiment of the invention, it additionally provides marshalling yard's throat area resource and generates realization side using thermodynamic chart
Method：
Marshalling yard's throat is as the linking part between each job sequence of marshalling yard, train reception and departure route, difference
Shunting route etc. can all occupy marshalling yard's bottle-neck section, one or several track switch whole day most peak hours/periods of traditional method
Utilization rate indicates that the utilization rate situation of entire throat not enough intuitively now by digital visual technology, can generate throat
The thermodynamic chart of switch area operation busy extent can preferably analyze the utilization power of throat area resource, be as follows：
A1, according to every operation parallel route occupy, conflicting route occupy and other throat point rules of classification to pharynx
Larynx area track switch is grouped；
The handling situations of A2, analysis different time sections, different track switch group, and when occupying total to it according to different track switch group numbers
Between counted；
Track switch group obtained by A3, counting statistics occupies the difference of maximum time and minimum time, and according to the ladder of quasi- use
Number of degrees setting time scale divides track switch group holding time length；
A4, area maps are carried out according to different work market, and assign different colours depth to the track switch of different zones, by
This generates marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group resource and uses thermodynamic chart.
According to the data statistics in the example of above-mentioned Lanzhou northern station as a result, Lanzhou north marshalling yard can be obtained to Receiving yaxd and switchyard
6 hours track switch group occupancy situations before one class of bottle-neck section, as shown in table 6：
6 track switch group occupancy situation statistical form of table
According to above-mentioned steps, it is as shown in Figure 12 and Figure 13 using thermodynamic chart to generate throat area resource；Comparison diagram 12 and Figure 13
Shown, different track switch groups heating power situation in same thermodynamic chart has notable difference, and same track switch group is in different time periods
There is also differents for thermodynamic chart situation, pass through the thermodynamic chart of different time sections marshalling yard bottle-neck section track switch group resource busy extent
Comparison, can more clearly from grasp track switch group resource different periods service condition, for analysis bottle-neck section track switch group resource
Condition is more intuitively estimated in idle degree and the availability offer of different periods, the heat of different periods thermodynamic chart can also be passed through
The resource free time degree and availability that the heating power distribution situation experience tried hard to finally is calculated.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are：The present invention considers marshalling yard's bottle-neck section train, adjusts machine and vehicle occupancy situation, utilizes
The correlation theories such as dynamic network Resource Availability measure, bottle-neck section track switch group resource availability calculating side of design marshalling yard
Method can analyse in depth bottle-neck section track switch group resource utilization, be marshalling yard's resource reasonable disposition, advanced optimize operation into
Road provides according to and refers to.
Claims (8)
1. the computational methods of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability based on Weibull distribution, which is characterized in that including with
Lower step：
S1, every operation execution situation within the different work period, recording period t, and obtain handling situations with actual count
It is compared, obtains resource free time degree of the resource x in time t；
S2, determine the parameter that marshalling yard bottle-neck section track switch group resource confidence level calculates, and compile its corresponding index data into
Row analysis, obtains resource confidence levels of the resource x in time t；
S3, according to resource confidence level and resource free time degree computing resource availability；
In the step S1, resource free time degree is the task frequency number and reason that throat point group can also be handled in a period
By the ratio of maximum frequency of usage；
In affiliated step S2, resource confidence level is throat point group to fulfil assignment the probability of plan in a period, is at any time
Between and change amount；
In the step S3, resource availability can start a job for throat point group and can be one in a period of time
It fixes time and completes the probability of this work under conditions of constraining；
The theoretical maximum frequency of usage is to meet the minimum working time constraint of equipment, facility, working sequence, operation equal
Under the conditions of weighing apparatus, using comprehensive resources maximum using the frequency as target, number that an equipment or facility use within the unit interval.
2. the calculating side of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability according to claim 1 based on Weibull distribution
Method, which is characterized in that the step S1 is specially：
S1-1, it is directed to marshalling yard's bottle-neck section track switch group, analyzes each track switch group job correlated series, establishes topology network architecture；
S1-2, according to topology network architecture, determine object function using time series and optimal method, and according to every resource
Time and space is constrained, and the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model of throat area resource is established；
S1-3, the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model according to throat area resource count resource x practical utilization powers at times
And the theoretical maximum frequency of usage situation of resource, according to the time of practical utilization power and the theoretical maximum frequency of usage of resource song
Line calculates the work limit value of utility that track switch group resource x is used within the t periodsWith the estimated working curve used
Marginal utility value
S1-4, basisWithComputing resource free time degree；
The calculation formula of the resource free time degree is：
In formula,Indicate the working curve marginal utility value that resource x is actually used within the t periods；
Indicate resource x estimated working curve marginal utility values used within the t periods.
3. the calculating side of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability according to claim 2 based on Weibull distribution
Method, which is characterized in that the step S1-1 is specially：
Each resource of bottle-neck section is considered as point set, the circuit between each track switch group resource is considered as side collection, spatially position and it is hostile into
Road deployment scenarios will be put and side connects, and are occupied on unit time basis in the items operation of statistics marshalling yard, according to time sequence
The application of row method is calculated, and resource x job sequence ij performed within a work period, and each sequence institute are obtained
The initial time of occupancyAnd the end timeJob sequence ij is occupied every track switch group resource to demarcate, determines operation
Optimal route LijAnd conflicting route group, build complete topology network architecture.
4. the calculating side of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability according to claim 2 based on Weibull distribution
Method, which is characterized in that in the step S1-2：
If the minimum time of operation X, Y, Z operation of the roads i jth train is respectivelySame train different work
Xij、Yij、ZijBetween there are certain operation precedence relationship, be provided as industry Xij、Yij、ZijAt the beginning of and the end time be respectivelyWith
If Xij、Yij、ZijIt is sequentially to arrange, then there are space constraints：
If different work is related to same resource, section is occupied in different times for common resource needs, and activity duration sequence
Meet operation tandem requirement, then there are space constraints：
In formula, n indicates that station track sum, m indicate train sum；
Hostile operation group is divided according to principle is occupied when operation resource difference
WhereinThe set of station track and train is indicated respectively, then Existence restraint condition：
In formula, t 'Operating room every、t″Operating room every、t″Operating room everyThe minimum time interval between different work is indicated respectively, by every operation institute
The Resource release time of the device resource of occupancy determines；
The object function includes object function one and object function two：
The object function one is：
In formulaIndicate i-th station track by the end time of+1 train occupation of jth；GijIndicate that i-th station track is accounted for by jth train
Initial time；
The object function two is：
In formula,At the beginning of indicating that i-th station track jth train work occupies resource；Indicate that i-th station track jth train is made
Industry occupies the end time of resource；
According to the constraints and object function, the theoretical maximum frequency of usage computation model of the throat area resource is obtained
For：
5. the computational methods of marshalling yard's throat point resource availability according to claim 2 based on Weibull distribution,
It is characterized in that, the working curve marginal utility value in the step S1-3 is：It equipment or is set when one unit interval of every increase
Apply the value added of workload；
On the basis of counting the working strength of known device or facility within certain continuous time, the work of rendering apparatus or facility
Measure-time graph f (t)x, the working curve marginal utility value of T moment equipment or facility be numerically equal to workload-when
The tangent slope of point of the half interval contour corresponding to the T moment.
6. the calculating side of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability according to claim 2 based on Weibull distribution
Method, which is characterized in that the calculation formula of the step S2 resource confidence levels is：
In formula, A ' (x)tIndicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t periods；
Indicate resource x practical occupied times when carrying out operation i；
Indicate resource x occupied times according to plan when carrying out operation i；
Indicate that resource x practical occupied times are more than the number for planning holding time when progress operation i；
nt-1Indicate the operation sum that resource x is executed within the t-1 periods；
Tt ywIndicate that resource x is since station according to construction plan carries out the occupied time of constructing within the t periods；
Indicate resource x by the occupied probability of station construction；
Tt xwIndicate that resource x carries out the emergency maintenance construction occupied time due to failure within the t periods；
TxIndicate the expected life of resource x；
εtIndicate the resource service condition proportion shared when calculating confidence level within the t periods；
A″(x)t-1Indicate the confidence level of the resource x within the t-1 periods；
εtIndicate the resource service condition proportion shared when calculating confidence level within the t periods；
The εtCalculation formula be：
7. the calculating side of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability according to claim 6 based on Weibull distribution
Method, which is characterized in that the expected life T that the track switch group resource goes outx, it is obtained by the cumulative failure probability function of resource,
The cumulative failure probability function is to have informed the probability to break down in the period in resource apparatus work, obtains track switch group resource
The expected life T gone outxFor：
In formula, F (t) indicates to break down and can not complete the probability of task in period t in resource, indicates that the accumulation of resource is lost
Imitate probability；
The accumulative failure function by Weibull distribution obtain for：
In formula,For the estimated value of form parameter；
The time of cumulative activation of the t ' expressions resource since last maintenance or replacing；
For the estimated value of calibration parameters；
The estimated value of the form parameter and calibration parameters by Maximum-likelihood estimation obtain for：
8. the calculating side of marshalling yard's throat point group resource availability according to claim 6 based on Weibull distribution
Method, which is characterized in that the calculation formula of the resource availability is：
A(x)t=αtA′(x)t+(1-αt)tA″(x)t (13)
In formula, A (x)tIndicate the availability of the resource x within the t periods；
A′(x)tIndicate that resource x counts the confidence level obtained by historical data within the t periods；
A″(x)tIndicate resource x relative free degree in the t periods；
αtIndicate resource confidence level proportion during computing resource availability；
The αtCalculation formula be：
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