CN108694247A - A kind of typhoon disaster the condition of a disaster analysis method based on microblog topic temperature - Google Patents
A kind of typhoon disaster the condition of a disaster analysis method based on microblog topic temperature Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The typhoon disaster the condition of a disaster analysis method based on microblog topic temperature that the invention discloses a kind of, has probed into the quantitative relationship between microblog topic temperature and typhoon disaster grade, to provide a kind of highly efficient new method for the rapid evaluation of the condition of a disaster.On excellent layout, the present invention is primarily based on the calculation formula of this social factor proposition microblog topic temperature of the microbloggings characteristics and population such as microblogging publication sum, microblogging any active ues sum;It is based on microblog topic temperature afterwards with the condition of a disaster calculation of relationship degree as a result, analyzing its quantitative relationship.By carrying out curve fitting to data scatterplot, the present invention has finally obtained the preferable H- α curvilinear equations of journey conspicuousness, the goodness of fit, i.e.,:H=2.0769ln (α)+15.383.2014-2015 annual datas have reconfirmed validity of the equation in Disaster rapid evaluation to the verification result of the equation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of typhoon disaster the condition of a disaster analysis methods, more particularly to a kind of platform based on microblog topic temperature
Disaster caused by a windstorm does harm to the condition of a disaster analysis method.
Background technology
Typhoon disaster is one of the disaster for causing economic loss most serious over the years, the mankind being constituted with great threat.In mistake
It goes in 10 years, average annual direct economic loss caused by global range internal cause typhoon disaster is up to 50,000,000,000 dollars, and China side accounts for about
The 15% of total losses.With the continuous growth of population and the wealth of society, Area In The Coast of Southeast China, which is also faced with, to be on the rise
Typhoon threatens.In platform evil rescue, it is to be difficult to obtain by the real-time the condition of a disaster in disaster area area to face one of maximum challenge at present
Information.
The appearance for pushing away a series of social medias such as spy, facebook, microblogging changes the exchange way of people.Wherein, microblogging is made
For one of the social media platform of Largest In China, public's real time information of publication can be provided for relevant department.By 2012
Bottom, the average daily any active ues of microblogging are up to 0.462 hundred million people, issuing microblog information 100,000,000 or more, and microblog users as time goes by
Still constantly increasing.At the same time, when microblog users are given out information using mobile phone, its location information can be shared, and carry position
The microblog data of confidence breath can be preferably applied to related work and the research of disaster assistance.
Based on the advantage of social media data, more and more Disaster Studies probe into the condition of a disaster in disaster area etc. using it
Grade.Wherein, Chinese scholar has mainly probed into the relationship between actual disastrous situation and microblogging disaster relevant information liveness.For example, grinding
Study carefully and compare the Olympic Games and the micro-blog information of typhoon disaster associated topic, finds the Twitter message releasing position of typhoon disaster
It is distributed in disaster area and periphery mostly, and the Twitter message releasing position of the Olympic Games is then distributed at random, does not show apparent rule
Rule.And foreign scholar has mainly carried out more extensive research work using pushing away special data.Some scholars probe into the areas Liao Tuite
Validity in the condition of a disaster perception of domain, some then probe into the actual extracting work for pushing away special disaster information and monitoring effect.Wherein,
Kryvasheyeu et al. is based on pushing away special and tropical cyclone related data, and discovery pushes away special relevant information liveness and tropical cyclone road
Extremely strong correlation (Kryvasheyeu, Chen, Obradovich, et al.Rapid assessment of are presented in diameter
disaster damage using social media activity.Science Advances,2016,2(3),
e1500779.).At the same time, the research of Yago et al. also demonstrates that the peak value for pushing away special relevant information liveness just comes across platform
Wind continuously decreases (Mart í n, Li, Cutter.Leveraging Twitter come the stage of attacking with the liveness of riding calamities of typhoon
to gauge evacuation compliance:Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane
Matthew.PLOS ONE,2017,12(7):e0181701.).But at present it is most of research be based primarily upon social media with
Typhoon disaster data probe into its qualitative relationships.
Invention content
The technical issues of for being proposed in background technology, the typhoon disaster calamity provided by the invention based on microblog topic temperature
Feelings analysis method includes the following steps:
(1) tropical cyclone data are obtained, the tropical cyclone data include cyclone number, path, time, wind intensity
Information;
(2) the condition of a disaster assessment of typhoon is carried out comprising
The grade of (2-1) based on each individual event disaster index of typhoon in the whole country is immeasurable to individual event disaster Index Establishment
Guiding principle transfer function;
(2-2) is based on grey correlation theory, calculates the degree of association (α) of individual event disaster index, and represent with the degree of association (α)
Disaster Grade;
(3) acquisition and cleaning of microblog data are carried out comprising:
(3-1) obtains microblog data, and the microblog data includes publication content, releasing position and the user to give out information
The attribute informations such as ID, user's number of fans;The microblog data contains location information;
The releasing position information of (3-2) based on microblog data, filtering out every typhoon influences the microblog data in area;
It is micro- in the period to dissipating from occurring to filter out every typhoon for the issuing time information of (3-3) based on microblog data
Rich data;
(3-4) be based on microblogging publication content carry out data cleansing, washed in content of microblog with typhoon disaster theme without
The microblog data of pass;
(4) the H assessments of microblog topic temperature are carried out, the calculation formula of the microblog topic temperature H is as follows:
Wherein, U represents the total number of users of publication disaster relevant information, and M is the relevant microblogging sum of disaster, and F is every micro-
The number of fans of rich publication user, P are the population in the affiliated street of microblogging releasing position, and whether V representatives are certification user, if recognizing
Demonstrate,prove user then V=1.5;If non-authentication user, V=1;
(5) it carries out microblog topic temperature H and represents the quantitative analysis of the degree of association (α) of Disaster Grade, be fitted H and the degree of association
The curve equation of (α) is as follows:
H=2.0769ln (α)+15.383
Preferably, it is from CMA tropical cyclone optimal path data sets tropical cyclone data to be obtained in step (1)
(tcdata.typhoon.org.cn) the tropical cyclone data extracted.
Preferably, the title of the tropical cyclone data of extraction includes Bei Bijia, Wen Biya, Su Li, Cimaron, flies swallow, is outstanding
Spy, Trami, Lepus, Fitow, petrel.
Preferably, the individual event disaster index in step (2-1) includes crops disaster area, death toll, house
Collapse number, the common disaster index of direct economic loss four.
Preferably, the acquisition period of the microblog data in step (3-3) is three days after stopping from typhoon formation to typhoon.
The present invention has creatively probed into the quantitative relationship between microblog topic temperature and typhoon Disaster Grade for the first time.In China
Under excellent layout, the present invention utilize microblog data and district grade demographic data analysis microblog topic temperature with location information with
Relationship between a variety of impact factors.The data that this describes Disaster Grade situation based on topic temperature result of calculation and the degree of association again,
Probe into quantitative relationship between microblog topic and Disaster Grade.
Description of the drawings
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, to the present invention the typhoon disaster the condition of a disaster analysis method based on microblog topic temperature principle and
Specific implementation mode is described in detail.
Fig. 1 is 10 Tropical Cyclone Route figures in 2013.
Fig. 2 is 9 Tropical Cyclone Route figures of 2014-2015.
Fig. 3 is " typhoon disaster " theme microblogging publication thermodynamic chart in 2013
Fig. 4 is relationship between the condition of a disaster degree of association (α) and microblogging releasing position street-level size of population P.
Fig. 5 is the curve graph of microblog topic temperature H and the degree of association (α) data fitting result.
Specific implementation mode
The acquisition and pretreatment of 1 typhoon disaster data
The acquisition of 1.1 typhoon data
The present invention is extracted 2013 from CMA tropical cyclone optimal path data sets (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn)
Log in China 10 tropical cyclone data, title be respectively Bei Bijia, Wen Biya, Su Li, Cimaron, fly swallow, especially, pool
U.S., Lepus, Fitow, petrel (such as Fig. 1).In acquired tropical cyclone data, mainly comprising cyclone number, path, time, wind
The information such as power intensity.
For the final result that the verification present invention is obtained, article is based on CMA tropical cyclone optimal path data sets
(tcdata.typhoon.org.cn) it is extracted 9 tropical cyclone data (such as Fig. 2) that 2014-2015 logs in China again.
Wherein, " Wei Maxun " and " Mai Demu " tropical cyclone for logging in China for 2014, since it has influenced province and duration
It overlaps and is not selected among research object.
The condition of a disaster of 1.2 typhoons is assessed
Typhoon Disaster Grade not yet forms unified evaluation system at present, be mostly based on the damage of different bearer body into
Row evaluation.And the present invention is intended to assess the grade situation of the condition of a disaster totality with a multi-stress, therefore the scholars such as Wang Xiurong has been selected to carry
Go out typhoon the condition of a disaster Integrated Evaluation Model (Wang Xiurong, Wang Weiguo, the clear cloud typhoon disasters integrated level assessment models of horse and apply
Meteorology, 2010,36 (1):66-71.), with crops disaster area, death toll, house collapse number, direct economic loss four
Based on common disaster achievement data, typhoon disaster integrated level is evaluated.
Typhoon disaster assessment of the present invention 4 index basic datas used derive from Meteorological Disasters In China yearbook, the yearbook
It is specific describe the typhoon situation over the years for logging in China and provincial administrative area that each typhoon is influenced and hazard-affected body it is disaster-stricken
Situation.
When the typhoon the condition of a disaster Integrated Evaluation Model that the scholars such as application Wang Xiurong propose carries out disaster loss grade assessment, main point
For two steps.First, the grade (such as table 1) based on each individual event disaster index of typhoon in the whole country, to 4 individual event disaster indexs
Establish dimensionless transfer function.
The grade classification of the Chinese individual event disaster index of table 1.
Being then based on grey correlation theory, (poplar bodyguard rises natural calamities grade classification and Comparison of disastrous condition model inquires into natures
Disaster journal, 1997,36 (1):66-71;Fourier gray system theories and its Beijing application:Science tech publishing house, 1992,
191-199.), 4 index degrees of association are calculated, and Disaster Grade is represented with the degree of association.But in actually calculating, the present invention does not draw
Enter incidence coefficient λ, but the transfer function result of 4 indexs is directly used to solve the degree of association (α).Between Disaster Grade and the degree of association
Relationship it is as shown in table 2.
The correspondence of table 2. disaster loss grade and the degree of association
4 disaster indexs, the degree of association and the disaster loss grade assessment result such as table of 2013-2015 institute's Research on typhoon of the present invention
3, shown in table 4, wherein disaster loss grade result does not include " especially big calamity " this grade.
3.2013 years typhoon disaster single indexs of table and ranking results
Table 4.2014-2015 typhoon disasters single index and ranking results
2. the pretreatment of microblog data is assessed with microblog topic temperature
2.1 the acquisition and cleaning of microblog data
The national microblog data collection of 2013-2015 used in the present invention is from extremely extra large Co., Ltd in length and breadth.
In actual use, this research has carried out a degree of screening and cleaning for microblog data.
In the course of the research, microblog data used in the present invention includes mainly publication content, releasing position and publication
The User ID of message, user's number of fans etc. important attribute information.Due to microblogging forward content and part original content without
Location information, therefore this research only obtains microblog data original and with location information.
Secondly, the releasing position information based on microblog data, the present invention filters out the microblogging in the influenced province of every typhoon
Data.Related scholar's research is it has been proved that the liveness of social media disaster relevant information is at a distance from arrival typhoon track
Now preferable inverse relationship, i.e. map the middle-range position closer from typhoon track, social media disaster relevant information are enlivened
Degree is also higher.The main reason for this phenomenon occurs is the position closer apart from typhoon track, easier to be attacked by typhoon
Influence, or closer to disaster area, therefore these positions have more social media users and issue the relevant message of disaster.
To sum up, the present invention can be preferably applied to the condition of a disaster assessment using the microblog data in disaster-stricken province.
Then, the issuing time information based on microblog data, this research filter out every typhoon from occurring to the period of dissipating
Interior microblog data.Before and after being attacked in view of typhoon, relevant departments can carry out the work such as early warning and Evacuation, therefore microblog number
According to the acquisition period be extended to from typhoon formation to typhoon stop after three days.
It is finally the data cleansing that content is issued based on microblogging.To obtain the microblog data of typhoon disaster related subject, this
Research has washed microblog data unrelated with typhoon disaster theme in content of microblog.Typhoon used in data cleansing of the present invention
Disaster theme dictionary (such as table 5) is collected in the relevant news of typhoon, comment language material.
Finally, this research is total obtains 35991 microblog datas from 32586 microblog users in 2013.
The relevant feature vocabulary of 5. typhoon of table
2.2 microblog topic temperatures are assessed
Microblog topic temperature (H) proposed by the present invention is one and refers to for describing the synthesis of microblogging associated topic liveness
Mark.
Whether the calculating of this index relates generally to any active ues sum, microblogging publication sum, user's number of fans, is certification
The basic datas such as user.Under normal conditions, user's number of fans of issuing microblog is more, the microblogging more be easy to cause in crowd compared with
It is big to influence.At the same time, the micro-blog information for deriving from certification user publication more has authoritative weight and is easier to be closed by people
Note.
Based on the location information of microblog data after cleaning, the present invention depicts the thermodynamic chart of microblogging disaster relevant information (such as
Fig. 3), the information such as typhoon track, relief situation and microblogging publication density are intuitively presented very much.As seen from the figure, it is saving
Grade administrative area within the scope of, microblogging publication density not with reach typhoon track distance reduction and increase, but ground even,
Area with big city, more populations occurs significantly raised.Thus, it is possible to the higher area of microblogging publication density is deduced, because
It is accumulated with more population and the wealth of society, is often more lost, is brought larger range of when attacking in typhoon
It influences;At the same time, these are regional since economy is relatively flourishing, population concentration, can possess greater number of microblog users publication
The relevant information of disaster.Based on this, the present invention guesses that the size of population factor can preferably correct the calculating of microblog topic temperature
As a result, and there are stronger correlativities between disaster loss grade.
Based on the above, the present invention is carrying out mainly considering two aspect factors when microblog topic temperature calculates.First, micro-
Rich data characteristics, such as total number of users, microblogging issue sum;Second is that social factor, the i.e. size of population.Use social factor
The microblog topic temperature being calculated is as a result, will preferably reflect the condition of a disaster situation in disaster area.
In view of a variety of impact factors of microblog topic temperature, the calculating that the present invention proposes microblog topic temperature (H) is public
Formula:
Wherein, U represents the total number of users of publication disaster relevant information, and M is the relevant microblogging sum of disaster, and F is every micro-
The number of fans of rich publication user, P are the population in the affiliated street of microblogging releasing position, and whether V representatives are certification user, if recognizing
Demonstrate,prove user then V=1.5;If non-authentication user, V=1.
Currently, when Most scholars probe into the condition of a disaster with microblogging liveness relationship, total number of users, microblogging publication are only accounted for always
The characteristics of microblog datas itself such as number.And present invention the considerations of social factor as population is creatively included in formula (1)
Range has opened up new thinking for the accuracy promotion of Disaster rapid evaluation.
Relationship analysis between the 3 population factors and Disaster Grade
Further to verify correcting of the population factor pair in microblog topic temperature result, the present invention is based on typhoon disasters
The street-level demographic data P of the degree of association and microblogging releasing position, the relationship deployment analysis between the population factor and Disaster Grade.
Analysis result Fig. 4 intuitively presents correlativity between the two.In figure, each circle is represented in a typhoon thing
Under the degree of association numerical value of part, the street-level size of population of microblogging releasing position;The width of circle represents releasing position street-level people
The identical microblogging sum of mouth quantity.It sees on the whole, there are preferable correlativities between the population factor and Disaster Grade.
By Fig. 4 it can be found that when the degree of association (α) is less than 0.24, the street-level size of population of microblogging releasing position does not surpass
Cross 3*105.When the degree of association (α) is more than 0.24 and is less than 0.53, there is more circle to appear in 3*105~7*105Between.When
When the degree of association (α) is more than 0.53, size of population 3*10 is come across5~7*105Between circle width show and significantly increase;With
This simultaneously, the size of population be less than 3*105Circle also showed increased, width also increased.
The appearance of this phenomenon is understandable.The large and medium-sized urban area of coastal area of southeastern China, with gathering for population
Collection and the continuous accumulation of the wealth of society, typhoon is come can also can be even more serious by larger loss, the condition of a disaster when attacking.Correspondingly, by
In densely populated, microblog users are also relatively more, in typhoon come when attacking, the microblogging publication density of related subject is also bigger.Cause
This population factor can react the condition of a disaster serious conditions and microblogging associated topic temperature in disaster area to a certain extent.
Quantitative analysis between 4 microblog topic temperatures and Disaster Grade
The present invention is based on formula (4-1), calculate the influenced province of every typhoon event and comprehensive microblog topic heat
It spends (H), and combines the degree of association (α) data result of table 3, table 4, analyze the quantitative relationship between H and α.Analysis result such as Fig. 5 institutes
Show.
By H- α data scatterplot in Fig. 5 it can be found that there are stronger positive correlations between H and α, i.e., with microblog topic
The raising of temperature, Disaster Grade also increase therewith.
Based on H- α data scatterplots, the matched curve of H- α can be drawn out.In view of in actual life, disaster area it is micro-
Rich total number of users is constant, everyone is usually less than 20 at average daily microblogging publication amount, therefore microblog topic temperature can not be without limitation
Increase.Based on actually considering, the present invention is fitted data scatterplot using logarithmic function, and fitting result is as shown in Figure 5.
Fit curve equation is as follows:
H=2.0769ln (α)+15.383 (2)
The regression equation conspicuousness is 0.000 (such as table 6), R2For 0.363 (such as Fig. 5), the goodness of fit is higher.
6. the results of analysis of variance of table
aIndependent variable is the degree of association
Based on formula (2) and 2014-2015 microblog topics temperature, it is associated with degrees of data, compares the condition of a disaster prediction and actual value,
The ratio of its root-mean-square error and true average is less than 12%, has proved the validity of fit curve equation again.
This research discovery demonstrates microblog topic temperature and rises with the increase of typhoon disaster grade.
Conclusion
The present invention has probed into the quantitative relationship between microblog topic temperature and typhoon disaster grade, to quickly commenting for the condition of a disaster
Estimate and a kind of highly efficient new method is provided.On excellent layout, the present invention is primarily based on microblogging publication sum, microblogging is actively used
This social factor of the microbloggings such as family sum characteristic and population proposes the calculation formula of microblog topic temperature;Microblogging is based on afterwards to talk about
Temperature is inscribed with the condition of a disaster calculation of relationship degree as a result, analyzing its quantitative relationship.By carrying out curve fitting to data scatterplot, the present invention is most
The preferable H- α curvilinear equations of journey conspicuousness, the goodness of fit have been obtained eventually, i.e.,:H=2.0769ln (α)+15.383.2014-
2015 annual datas have reconfirmed validity of the equation in Disaster rapid evaluation to the verification result of the equation.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of typhoon disaster the condition of a disaster analysis method based on microblog topic temperature, includes the following steps:
(1) tropical cyclone data are obtained;
(2) the condition of a disaster assessment of typhoon is carried out comprising:
The grade of (2-1) based on each individual event disaster index of typhoon in the whole country turns individual event disaster Index Establishment dimensionless
Exchange the letters number;
(2-2) is based on grey correlation theory, calculates the degree of association (α) of individual event disaster index, and represents the condition of a disaster with the degree of association (α)
Grade;
(3) acquisition and cleaning of microblog data are carried out comprising:
(3-1) obtains microblog data, the microblog data include publication content, releasing position and the User ID to give out information,
The attribute informations such as user's number of fans;The microblog data contains location information;
The releasing position information of (3-2) based on microblog data, filtering out every typhoon influences the microblog data in area;
The issuing time information of (3-3) based on microblog data filters out every typhoon from occurring to the microblog number to dissipate in the period
According to;
(3-4) is based on microblogging publication content and carries out data cleansing, has washed unrelated with typhoon disaster theme in content of microblog
Microblog data;
(4) the H assessments of microblog topic temperature are carried out, the calculation formula of the microblog topic temperature H is as follows:
Wherein, U represents the total number of users of publication disaster relevant information, and M is the relevant microblogging sum of disaster, and F is that every microblogging is sent out
The number of fans of cloth user, P are the population in the affiliated street of microblogging releasing position, and whether V representatives are certification user, are used if certification
Family then V=1.5;If non-authentication user, V=1;
(5) it carries out microblog topic temperature H and represents the quantitative analysis of the degree of association (α) of Disaster Grade, fitting H and the degree of association (α)
Curve.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, being fitted the curve of H and the degree of association (α) in the step (5)
Formula is as follows:
H=2.0769ln (α)+15.383.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, it is from CMA to obtain tropical cyclone data in the step (1)
The tropical cyclone data of tropical cyclone optimal path data set (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn) extraction.
4. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the tropical cyclone data include cyclone number, path, when
Between, the information of wind intensity.
5. according to the method described in claim 3, it is characterized in that, the title of the tropical cyclone data obtained includes that shellfish is green
Good, Wen Biya, Su Li, Cimaron, fly swallow, especially, Trami, Lepus, Fitow, petrel.
6. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the individual event disaster index packet in the step (2-1)
Include crops disaster area, death toll, house collapse number, the common disaster index of direct economic loss four.
7. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the acquisition period of the microblog data in step (3-3) be
Three days after stopping from typhoon formation to typhoon.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111239812A (en) * | 2019-05-17 | 2020-06-05 | 北京市地震局 | Social media big data and machine learning-based seismic intensity rapid evaluation method |
| CN113408563A (en) * | 2020-09-01 | 2021-09-17 | 武汉大学 | Enteromorpha disaster spatial distribution estimation method under dynamic time-space correlation of microblog public sentiments |
| CN113408563B (en) * | 2020-09-01 | 2022-08-16 | 武汉大学 | Enteromorpha disaster spatial distribution estimation method under dynamic space-time correlation of microblog public sentiments |
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| CN108694247B (en) | 2020-11-20 |
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