CN108665097A - A kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, device and storage medium - Google Patents
A kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, device and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, device and storage mediums, are related to transportation demand analogue technique field.The freight demand simulating and predicting method is primarily based on commercial data of each department of first area between base year and each region, calibration input and output row coefficient model, estimation range total output value based on the first area, the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area is obtained using the input and output row coefficient model, then converts the prediction value of goods amount of flow to the freight demand simulation and forecast amount of the first area.The freight demand simulating and predicting method carries out simulation and forecast using input-output model by the regional production total value in area to freight demand, improves the accuracy of freight demand simulation and forecast, influence of the performance national economic development to cargo transport demand.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to transportation demand analogue technique field, in particular to a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method,
Device and storage medium.
Background technology
With the economic sustained and rapid development in China, interregional professional division refines, the acquisition of all kinds of production factors and product
Marketing scope be growing, each region freight demand is vigorous, can be accurately to following freight demand Accurate Prediction, to warp
Ji policy making and the development of each regional economy rapid coordination are of great significance.
Method at present about volume of goods transported requirement simulation is more, and traditional method includes mainly time series forecasting, returns
Return analytic approach, system dynamics and gray forecast approach etc..In view of the economic development in each region has differences, existing base
Plinth data category, data integrity are different, and traditional forecast of traffic volume method, can not all there is certain applicability and limitation
Reflect influence of the freight traffic direction to freight demand amount between the economic development of each branch of industry and each region.
Invention content
In view of this, the embodiment of the present invention is designed to provide a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, device and deposits
Storage media, to solve the above problems.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, the freight demand simulation
Prediction technique is primarily based on commercial data of each department of first area between base year and each region, calibration input and output row
Modulus Model, the estimation range total output value based on the first area obtain institute using the input and output row coefficient model
The prediction value of goods amount of flow for stating first area converts the prediction value of goods amount of flow to the goods of the first area
Transport requirement simulation premeasuring.
It is comprehensive in a first aspect, the commercial data based on each department of first area between base year and each region,
Calibration input and output row coefficient model, including：Directly the consumption magnitude of value and department based on each department in the commercial data are total
Output obtains direct consumption coefficient using direct consumption coefficient formula；Interregional stream based on each department in the commercial data
Output and total flux obtain trade coefficient using trade coefficient formula；Based on the direct consumption coefficient and the trade system
Number, calibration input and output row coefficient model.
It is comprehensive in a first aspect, it is described based on the commercial data in each department interregional discharge and total flux,
Before obtaining trade coefficient using trade coefficient formula, the freight demand simulating and predicting method further includes：Based on the trade
Volume of goods transported data in data between each region obtain friction coefficient using friction coefficient formula；Based in the commercial data
Demand and supply data between each region and the friction coefficient obtain corresponding area of each department using interregional discharge formula
Discharge between domain.
Synthesis is in a first aspect, the estimation range total output value based on the first area, utilizes the input and output
Row coefficient model obtains the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area, including：Obtain the firstth area described in the base year
The value added of domain every profession and trade accounts for the ratio of the regional production total value of the first area, and the estimation range of the first area is given birth to
Production total value and the ratio are multiplied respectively obtains the every profession and trade prediction value added of the first area；Based on the first area
Every profession and trade predicts value added and direct consumption coefficient, and Gross Output is obtained based on equilibrium relation formula；Based on the Gross Output, utilize
The input and output row coefficient model obtains the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area.
Synthesis is in a first aspect, the freight demand for converting the prediction value of goods amount of flow to the first area
Simulation and forecast amount, including：It is equal to the relationship that price is multiplied by quantity of goods produced based on prediction value of goods amount of flow, by the prediction cargo
Monetary value flow momentum transformation is the freight demand simulation and forecast amount of the first area.
Second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of freight demand simulation and forecast device, the freight demand simulation
Prediction meanss include calibration module, prediction value of goods amount of flow computing module and freight demand simulation and forecast amount computing module.
The calibration module is used for commercial data of each department based on first area between base year and each region, calibration input production
Trip Modulus Model.The prediction value of goods amount of flow computing module is for the estimation range production based on the first area
Total value obtains the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area using the input and output row coefficient model.The shipping
Requirement simulation premeasuring computing module is used to need the shipping that the prediction value of goods amount of flow is converted into the first area
Modulus intends premeasuring.
Comprehensive second aspect, the calibration module include direct consumption coefficient computing unit, trade coefficient calculation unit and
Input and output row coefficient model calibration unit.The direct consumption coefficient computing unit is used for based on each portion in the commercial data
Door directly consumes the magnitude of value and department's Gross Output, and direct consumption coefficient is obtained using direct consumption coefficient formula.The trade
Coefficient calculation unit is used for interregional discharge and total flux based on each department in the commercial data, utilizes trade coefficient
Formula obtains trade coefficient.The input and output row coefficient model calibration unit is used for based on the direct consumption coefficient and described
Trade coefficient, calibration input and output row coefficient model.
Comprehensive second aspect, the calibration module further include that friction coefficient computing unit and interregional discharge calculate list
Member.The friction coefficient computing unit is used to, based on the volume of goods transported data between each region in the commercial data, utilize friction
Coefficient formula obtains friction coefficient.The interregional discharge computing unit is used for based between each region in the commercial data
Demand and supply data and the friction coefficient, utilize interregional discharge formula to obtain the corresponding interregional outflow of each department
Amount.
Comprehensive second aspect, the prediction value of goods amount of flow computing module further include that every profession and trade prediction value added calculates
Unit, Gross Output computing unit and prediction value of goods amount of flow computing unit.The every profession and trade predicts value added computing unit
Value added for obtaining first area every profession and trade described in the base year accounts for the ratio of the regional production total value of the first area
Example, the estimation range total output value of the first area and the ratio are multiplied respectively and obtain the every profession and trade of the first area
Predict value added.The Gross Output computing unit is predicted value added for the every profession and trade based on the first area and is directly consumed
Coefficient obtains Gross Output based on equilibrium relation formula.The prediction value of goods amount of flow computing unit is used for based on described total
Output obtains the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area using the input and output row coefficient model.
The third aspect, the embodiment of the present invention additionally provide a kind of storage medium, and the storage medium is stored in computer,
The storage medium includes a plurality of instruction, and a plurality of instruction is configured such that the computer executes above-mentioned method.
Advantageous effect provided by the invention is：
The present invention provides a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, device and storage medium, the freight demand simulation
Prediction technique makes freight demand simulation and forecast result more by using the total Value Data of regional production when carrying out simulation and forecast
Accurately, and it can reflect the direct contact between economic development and freight traffic.Meanwhile the freight demand simulation and forecast
Method obtains prediction value of goods amount of flow using input-output model and input-output table and is translated into freight demand mould
Quasi- premeasuring, can not only reflect the delivery of goods amount in conventional statistics, but also can reflect cargo amount of reach, can also reflect
Exchange relationship between Origin And Destination can be calculated the cargo total amount in each region and obtain each region and other regions
The of ac of part, is truly realized the space exchanging of cargo transport.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will be illustrated in subsequent specification, also, partly be become from specification
It is clear that by implementing understanding of the embodiment of the present invention.The purpose of the present invention and other advantages can be by saying what is write
Specifically noted structure is realized and is obtained in bright book, claims and attached drawing.
Description of the drawings
In order to illustrate the technical solution of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, below will be to needed in the embodiment attached
Figure is briefly described, it should be understood that the following drawings illustrates only certain embodiments of the present invention, therefore is not construed as pair
The restriction of range for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can also be according to this
A little attached drawings obtain other relevant attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart for freight demand simulating and predicting method that first embodiment of the invention provides；
Fig. 2 is a kind of flow chart for input and output row coefficient model calibration step that first embodiment of the invention provides；
Fig. 3 is a kind of each province's shipping obtained using freight demand simulating and predicting method that first embodiment of the invention provides
The comparison diagram of total amount and measured value；
Fig. 4 is that a kind of each province obtained using freight demand simulating and predicting method that first embodiment of the invention provides is sent
The comparison diagram of total amount and measured value；
Fig. 5 is that a kind of each province obtained using freight demand simulating and predicting method that first embodiment of the invention provides is reached
The comparison diagram of total amount and measured value；
Fig. 6 is a kind of module map for freight demand simulation and forecast device that second embodiment of the invention provides；
Fig. 7 is the module diagram for a kind of electronic equipment that third embodiment of the invention provides.
Icon：100- freight demand simulation and forecast devices；110- calibration modules；120- predicts that value of goods amount of flow calculates
Module；130- freight demand simulation and forecast amount computing modules；200- electronic equipments；201- memories；202- storage controls；
203- processors；204- Peripheral Interfaces；205- input-output units；206- audio units；207- display units.
Specific implementation mode
Below in conjunction with attached drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Ground describes, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Usually exist
The component of the embodiment of the present invention described and illustrated in attached drawing can be arranged and be designed with a variety of different configurations herein.Cause
This, the detailed description of the embodiment of the present invention to providing in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit claimed invention below
Range, but it is merely representative of the selected embodiment of the present invention.Based on the embodiment of the present invention, those skilled in the art are not doing
The every other embodiment obtained under the premise of going out creative work, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that：Similar label and letter indicate similar terms in following attached drawing, therefore, once a certain Xiang Yi
It is defined, then it further need not be defined and explained in subsequent attached drawing in a attached drawing.Meanwhile the present invention's
In description, term " first ", " second " etc. are only used for distinguishing description, are not understood to indicate or imply relative importance.
First embodiment
Through the applicant the study found that with the economic sustained and rapid development in China, the economic interaction in each region increases, each area
The volume of goods transported and the various types of economic interaction amount in each region between domain is closely related, but traditional volume of goods transported requirement simulation method,
Such as time series forecasting, regression analysis, system dynamics and gray forecast approach, all there is certain applicability with
Limitation.Such as time series forecasting, required data series are less, and method is simple, for the following short-term prediction
Effect is preferable, can not but reflect the practical factor for influencing freight volume variation, can not cope with fortune caused by the external factor such as economic policy
Defeated demand fluctuation；System dynamics can be between simulated domain freight transport system and economic development interactive relationship, when improving
Between sequential forecasting models, but it does not cover enough spaces and network details, and parameter is difficult to carry out statistical check.In order to
It solves the above problems, first embodiment of the invention provides a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, referring to FIG. 1, Fig. 1 is this
A kind of flow chart for freight demand simulating and predicting method that invention first embodiment provides.The freight demand simulating and predicting method
It is as follows：
Step S10：Commercial data based on each department of first area between base year and each region, calibration input production
Trip Modulus Model.
Step S20：Estimation range total output value based on the first area utilizes the input and output row coefficient model
Obtain the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area.
Step S30：Convert the prediction value of goods amount of flow to the freight demand simulation and forecast of the first area
Amount.
For step S10：Commercial data based on each department of first area between base year and each region, calibration are thrown
Enter output row coefficient model.When in view of carrying out freight demand simulation to the following time, the input and output can not be directly obtained
The data in the following time needed in row coefficient model are directly calculated, it is therefore desirable to first using the past for having commercial data
Year first carries out calibration to input and output row coefficient model based on time.As an implementation, referring to FIG. 2, Fig. 2 is
A kind of flow chart for input and output row coefficient model calibration step that first embodiment of the invention provides, input and output row system
Exponential model calibration step is specific as follows：
Step S11：The magnitude of value and department's Gross Output are directly consumed based on each department in the commercial data, using direct
Consumption coefficient formula obtains direct consumption coefficient.
Step S12：Interregional discharge based on each department in the commercial data and total flux, utilize trade coefficient
Formula obtains trade coefficient.
Step S13：Based on the direct consumption coefficient and the trade coefficient, calibration input and output row coefficient model.
For step S11, the direct consumption coefficient formula isWherein, aijRefer in production and operation
The magnitude of value of i-th produce sector's cargo or service that the unit Gross Output of Cheng Zhong jth produce sector directly consumes, xijFor jth portion
The cargo of the i-th department directly consumed in door production and operation or the magnitude of value of service, XjFor total input of jth department.By direct
Consumption coefficient aijThe matrix A of n × n of composition, referred to as DirectConsumptionCoefficients Matrix are also directly called in the present embodiment and directly disappear
Coefficient is consumed, matrix A reflects the Technological Economy connection between Technological Economy contact and product between input-output table Zhong Ge branchs of industry
System.Direct consumption coefficient is most important, the most basic coefficient for establishing input-output table and model, is the core of input-output model
The heart.Further, input-output table is also known as department's contact balance sheet, is reflected between regular period each department in income input output analysis
Connect and balance a kind of balance sheet of proportionate relationship each other.Input-output analysis is one of quantitative economics basic skills, it is
A kind of modern model method that economics is combined the most harmonious with mathematics, input-output table are its main analytical tools,
Input-output table is the important component of National Economic Accounting System, it is to carry out overall balance in national economy analysis, reinforce
Marcoeconomic regulation and control realize that the important tool of science decision has been widely used in giving birth to as a strong analysis tool
Produce the fields such as analysis, demand analysis, price and cost analysis, the energy and environmental analysis.It include production in the input-output table
The data such as the middle consumption for flowing to data and product and final consumption between the intraregional trade quantity of product and each department, this
Embodiment is applied in freight demand simulation and forecast, can more accurately show economic development, each branch of industry's economy
The influence come and gone to freight demand amount.
As an implementation, before executing step S12, the present embodiment can also be sought including interregional discharge
Step is as follows：
Step S11.1：Based on the volume of goods transported data between each region in the commercial data, obtained using friction coefficient formula
Obtain friction coefficient.
Step S11.2：Based between each region in the commercial data demand and supply data and the friction coefficient, profit
The corresponding interregional discharge of each department is obtained with interregional discharge formula.
For step S11.1, the friction coefficient formula isWherein,It is sent to for region R
The volume of goods transported of region S,Total volume of goods transported of all areas is sent to for region R,It is to reach the total volumes of goods transported of region S,It is
Total traffic volume (being equal to total amount of reach) of whole region.
In step S11.2, the interregional discharge formula isWherein,It is department i from region R
To discharge, that is, interregional discharge of region S,It is the Gross Output (aggregate supply) of region R departments i,For S pairs of region
The product aggregate demand (intermediate demand and final demand total) of department i,It is that the Gross Output of whole region department i (is equal to
Aggregate demand),It is department product i from region R to the friction coefficient of region S.
For step S12, i.e.,：Interregional discharge based on each department in the commercial data and total flux utilize
Trade coefficient formula obtains trade coefficient.The trade coefficient formula isWherein,It is department i from area
The discharge of domain R to the region S, that is, interregional discharge；Ratio from region R in i commercial products to flow into S,The as described total flux.
Next step S13 should be executed：Based on the direct consumption coefficient and the trade coefficient, calibration input and output
Row coefficient model.It is described enter output row coefficient model be CAX+CF+E-M=X, wherein X is all areas Gross Output, that is, described pre-
Value of goods amount of flow is surveyed, F is the final demand in each region, and E, M are respectively the export and import vector in each region, and A is all
The direct consumption coefficient in region, C are trade coefficient matrix.The year interregional middle consumption part for being worth flowmeter based on CAX,
It is the square formation of 1302 rows 1302 row, represents national 31 regions, the phase of 42 departments of municipality directly under the Central Government in process of production
It is worth amount of flow between mutually.
According to the sequence that executes of the present embodiment, step S20 next should be executed：Target area based on the first area
Domain total output value obtains the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area using the input and output row coefficient model.Make
For a kind of embodiment, step S20 may include it is following step by step：
Step S21：The value added for obtaining first area every profession and trade described in the base year accounts for the region of the first area
The estimation range total output value of the first area and the ratio are multiplied and obtain described first by the ratio of total output value respectively
The every profession and trade in region predicts value added.
Step S22：Every profession and trade prediction value added based on the first area and direct consumption coefficient, are based on equilibrium relation
Formula obtains Gross Output.
Step S23：Based on the Gross Output, the pre- of the first area is obtained using the input and output row coefficient model
Survey value of goods amount of flow.
Before executing step S21, it is also necessary to according to equilibrium relation formula X=N (I-A)-1Obtain the branch trade of base year
Value added, wherein wherein, A is by direct consumption coefficient aijThe matrix of n × n of composition, X are each region each department gross output value
Column vector, I are unit matrixs, and N is branch trade value added column vector.Using the middle consumption in the obtained every year each region in basis,
Again by the total yield output of 31 region, 42 department in existing base year input-output graph on a regional basis, acquisition can be calculated using above formula
The branch trade value added N of base year each region each department.
About step S22, there are following relationships between all department's value addeds of subregion GDP and subregion：Certain region
GDP is equal to the total of the corresponding value added of all departments in the region.Each region individually from the point of view of, with base year each region every profession and trade
The ratio that the base year GDP in value added divided by each region is obtained, then it is multiplied by the ratio with the GDP in all areas following time, by
This acquires each region every profession and trade prediction value added of the following time.
For step S23, according to direct consumption coefficient stability, it is assumed that direct consumption coefficient is fixed not in the regular period
Become, predicts value added using the non-coming year every profession and trade of gained, pass through input and output column balancing relational expression X=N (I-A)-1, calculate
The Gross Output X in the following time recycles input and output row coefficient MODEL C AX+CF+E-M=X to calculate and obtains the first area
Predict value of goods amount of flow.
According to the implementation sequence of the present embodiment, step S30 next should be executed：By the prediction value of goods amount of flow
It is converted into the freight demand simulation and forecast amount of the first area.As an implementation, this step includes：Based on prediction goods
Price value amount of flow is equal to the relationship that price is multiplied by quantity of goods produced, converts the prediction value of goods amount of flow to firstth area
The freight demand simulation and forecast amount in domain.
The shipping that the freight demand simulating and predicting method that first embodiment provides in order to better illustrate the present invention obtains needs
Modulus intends the accuracy of premeasuring, please refers to Fig.3, Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, Fig. 3, Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 are respectively that first embodiment of the invention carries
A kind of each province's shipping total amount obtained using freight demand simulating and predicting method, each province's transmission total amount and each province supplied reaches total
The comparison diagram of amount and measured value.Wherein, Fig. 3 initial times are smaller, Fig. 4 initial times are larger, Fig. 5 initial times are smaller one
Line is calculated value.
Second embodiment
For the freight demand simulating and predicting method for coordinating first embodiment of the invention to provide, second embodiment of the invention is also
Provide a kind of freight demand simulation and forecast device 100.Referring to FIG. 6, Fig. 6 is a kind of goods that second embodiment of the invention provides
Transport the module map of requirement simulation prediction meanss.
Freight demand simulation and forecast device 100 includes calibration module 110, prediction value of goods amount of flow computing module 120
With freight demand simulation and forecast amount computing module 130.
Calibration module 110 is used for commercial data of each department based on first area between base year and each region, rate
Determine input and output row coefficient model.
Wherein, magnitude of value computing module 110 includes direct consumption coefficient computing unit, trade coefficient calculation unit and input
Output row coefficient model calibration unit.The direct consumption coefficient computing unit is used for based on each department in the commercial data
The magnitude of value and department's Gross Output are directly consumed, direct consumption coefficient is obtained using direct consumption coefficient formula.The trade coefficient
Computing unit is used for interregional discharge and total flux based on each department in the commercial data, utilizes trade coefficient formula
Obtain trade coefficient.The input and output row coefficient model calibration unit is used to be based on the direct consumption coefficient and the trade
Coefficient, calibration input and output row coefficient model.
Optionally, calibration module 110 can also include friction coefficient computing unit and interregional discharge computing unit.Institute
Friction coefficient computing unit is stated for based on the volume of goods transported data between each region in the commercial data, utilizing friction coefficient public affairs
Formula obtains friction coefficient.The interregional discharge computing unit is used for based on the supply between each region in the commercial data
Demand data and the friction coefficient obtain the corresponding interregional discharge of each department using interregional discharge formula.
It predicts value of goods amount of flow computing module 120, is used for the estimation range total output value based on the first area,
The prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area is obtained using the input and output row coefficient model.
Wherein, prediction value of goods amount of flow computing module 120 includes every profession and trade prediction value added computing unit, Gross Output
Computing unit and prediction value of goods amount of flow computing unit.The every profession and trade prediction value added computing unit is described for obtaining
The value added of first area every profession and trade described in base year accounts for the ratio of the regional production total value of the first area, by described first
The estimation range total output value in region and the ratio are multiplied respectively obtains the every profession and trade prediction value added of the first area.Institute
Gross Output computing unit is stated for every profession and trade prediction value added and direct consumption coefficient based on the first area, based on balance
Relation formula obtains Gross Output.The prediction value of goods amount of flow computing unit is used to be based on the Gross Output, using described
Input and output row coefficient model obtains the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area.
Freight demand simulation and forecast amount computing module 130, it is described for converting the prediction value of goods amount of flow to
The freight demand simulation and forecast amount of first area.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the device of foregoing description
Specific work process, can refer to preceding method in corresponding process, no longer excessively repeat herein.
3rd embodiment
In order to realize that above-mentioned step-recording method, third embodiment of the invention provide a kind of electronic equipment 200.It please refers to
Fig. 7, Fig. 7 are the module diagram for a kind of electronic equipment that third embodiment of the invention provides.
Electronic equipment 200 may include freight demand simulation and forecast device 100, memory 201, storage control 202, place
Manage device 203, Peripheral Interface 204, input-output unit 205, audio unit 206, display unit 207.
The memory 201, storage control 202, processor 203, Peripheral Interface 204, input-output unit 205, sound
Frequency unit 206,207 each element of display unit are directly or indirectly electrically connected between each other, to realize the transmission or friendship of data
Mutually.It is electrically connected for example, these elements can be realized between each other by one or more communication bus or signal wire.The shipping
Requirement simulation prediction meanss 100 can be stored in the memory including at least one in the form of software or firmware (firmware)
In 201 or the software work(that is solidificated in the operating system (operating system, OS) of freight demand simulation and forecast device 100
It can module.The processor 203 is for executing the executable module stored in memory 201, such as freight demand simulation and forecast
The software function module or computer program that device 100 includes.
Wherein, memory 201 may be, but not limited to, random access memory (Random Access Memory,
RAM), read-only memory (Read Only Memory, ROM), programmable read only memory (Programmable Read-Only
Memory, PROM), erasable read-only memory (Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory, EPROM),
Electricallyerasable ROM (EEROM) (Electric Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory, EEPROM) etc..
Wherein, memory 201 is for storing program, and the processor 203 executes described program after receiving and executing instruction, aforementioned
The method performed by server that the stream process that any embodiment of the embodiment of the present invention discloses defines can be applied to processor 203
In, or realized by processor 203.
Processor 203 can be a kind of IC chip, the processing capacity with signal.Above-mentioned processor 203 can
To be general processor, including central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, abbreviation CPU), network processing unit
(Network Processor, abbreviation NP) etc.；Can also be digital signal processor (DSP), application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC),
Ready-made programmable gate array (FPGA) either other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic, discrete hard
Part component.It may be implemented or execute disclosed each method, step and the logic diagram in the embodiment of the present invention.General processor
Can be microprocessor or the processor 203 can also be any conventional processor etc..
The Peripheral Interface 204 couples various input/output devices to processor 203 and memory 201.At some
In embodiment, Peripheral Interface 204, processor 203 and storage control 202 can be realized in one single chip.Other one
In a little examples, they can be realized by independent chip respectively.
Input-output unit 205 is for being supplied to user input data to realize user and the server (or local terminal)
Interaction.The input-output unit 205 may be, but not limited to, the equipment such as mouse and keyboard.
Audio unit 206 provides a user audio interface, may include that one or more microphones, one or more raises
Sound device and voicefrequency circuit.
Display unit 207 provides an interactive interface (such as user's operation circle between the electronic equipment 200 and user
Face) or for display image data give user reference.In the present embodiment, the display unit 207 can be liquid crystal display
Or touch control display.Can be the capacitance type touch control screen or resistance for supporting single-point and multi-point touch operation if touch control display
Formula touch screen etc..Single-point and multi-point touch operation is supported to refer to touch control display and can sense on the touch control display one
Or at multiple positions simultaneously generate touch control operation, and by the touch control operation that this is sensed transfer to processor 203 carry out calculate and
Processing.
It is appreciated that structure shown in Fig. 7 is only to illustrate, the electronic equipment 200 may also include more than shown in Fig. 7
Either less component or with the configuration different from shown in Fig. 7.Hardware, software may be used in each component shown in fig. 7
Or combinations thereof realize.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the device of foregoing description
Specific work process, can refer to preceding method in corresponding process, no longer excessively repeat herein.
In conclusion an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, device and storage medium, institute
Freight demand simulating and predicting method is stated by using the total Value Data of regional production when carrying out simulation and forecast, makes freight demand mould
Quasi- prediction result is more accurate, and can reflect the direct contact between economic development and freight traffic.Meanwhile the goods
It transports requirement simulation prediction technique and using input-output model and input-output table obtains prediction value of goods amount of flow and by its turn
Freight demand simulation and forecast amount is turned to, can not only reflect the delivery of goods amount in conventional statistics, but also can reflect that cargo arrives
It up to amount, can also reflect the exchange relationship between Origin And Destination, the cargo total amount in each region can be calculated and obtain each
The of ac in region and other regions part, is truly realized the space exchanging of cargo transport.
In several embodiments provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed device and method can also pass through
Other modes are realized.The apparatus embodiments described above are merely exemplary, for example, the flow chart in attached drawing and block diagram
Show the device of multiple embodiments according to the present invention, the architectural framework in the cards of method and computer program product,
Function and operation.In this regard, each box in flowchart or block diagram can represent the one of a module, section or code
Part, a part for the module, section or code, which includes that one or more is for implementing the specified logical function, to be held
Row instruction.It should also be noted that at some as in the realization method replaced, the function of being marked in box can also be to be different from
The sequence marked in attached drawing occurs.For example, two continuous boxes can essentially be basically executed in parallel, they are sometimes
It can execute in the opposite order, this is depended on the functions involved.It is also noted that every in block diagram and or flow chart
The combination of box in a box and block diagram and or flow chart can use function or the dedicated base of action as defined in executing
It realizes, or can be realized using a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions in the system of hardware.
In addition, each function module in each embodiment of the present invention can integrate to form an independent portion
Point, can also be modules individualism, can also two or more modules be integrated to form an independent part.
It, can be with if the function is realized and when sold or used as an independent product in the form of software function module
It is stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Based on this understanding, technical scheme of the present invention is substantially in other words
The part of the part that contributes to existing technology or the technical solution can be expressed in the form of software products, the meter
Calculation machine software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are used so that a computer equipment (can be
People's computer, server or network equipment etc.) it performs all or part of the steps of the method described in the various embodiments of the present invention.
And storage medium above-mentioned includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), arbitrary access are deposited
The various media that can store program code such as reservoir (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic disc or CD.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to restrict the invention, for the skill of this field
For art personnel, the invention may be variously modified and varied.All within the spirits and principles of the present invention, any made by repair
Change, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.It should be noted that：Similar label and letter exist
Similar terms are indicated in following attached drawing, therefore, once being defined in a certain Xiang Yi attached drawing, are then not required in subsequent attached drawing
It is further defined and is explained.
The above description is merely a specific embodiment, but scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto, any
Those familiar with the art in the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, can easily think of the change or the replacement, and should all contain
Lid is within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
It should be noted that herein, relational terms such as first and second and the like are used merely to a reality
Body or operation are distinguished with another entity or operation, are deposited without necessarily requiring or implying between these entities or operation
In any actual relationship or order or sequence.Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or its any other variant are intended to
Non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or equipment including a series of elements is not only wanted including those
Element, but also include other elements that are not explicitly listed, or further include for this process, method, article or equipment
Intrinsic element.In the absence of more restrictions, the element limited by sentence "including a ...", it is not excluded that
There is also other identical elements in process, method, article or equipment including the element.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of freight demand simulating and predicting method, which is characterized in that including：
Commercial data based on each department of first area between base year and each region, calibration input and output row coefficient mould
Type；
Estimation range total output value based on the first area obtains described first using the input and output row coefficient model
The prediction value of goods amount of flow in region；
Convert the prediction value of goods amount of flow to the freight demand simulation and forecast amount of the first area.
2. freight demand simulating and predicting method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described based on each of first area
Commercial data of the department between base year and each region, calibration input and output row coefficient model, including：
Based on directly the consumption magnitude of value and the department's Gross Output of each department in the commercial data, direct consumption coefficient formula is utilized
Obtain direct consumption coefficient；
Interregional discharge based on each department in the commercial data and total flux obtain trade using trade coefficient formula
Coefficient；
Based on the direct consumption coefficient and the trade coefficient, calibration input and output row coefficient model.
3. freight demand simulating and predicting method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that be based on the trade number described
According to the interregional discharge and total flux of middle each department, before obtaining trade coefficient using trade coefficient formula, the shipping
Requirement simulation prediction technique further includes：
Based on the volume of goods transported data between each region in the commercial data, friction coefficient is obtained using friction coefficient formula；
Based between each region in the commercial data demand and supply data and the friction coefficient, utilize interregional discharge
Formula obtains the corresponding interregional discharge of each department.
4. freight demand simulating and predicting method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described to be based on the first area
Estimation range total output value, the prediction value of goods stream of the first area is obtained using the input and output row coefficient model
Momentum, including：
Obtain first area every profession and trade described in the base year value added account for the first area regional production total value ratio
Example, the estimation range total output value of the first area and the ratio are multiplied respectively and obtain the every profession and trade of the first area
Predict value added；
Every profession and trade prediction value added based on the first area and direct consumption coefficient, total yield is obtained based on equilibrium relation formula
Go out；
Based on the Gross Output, the prediction value of goods stream of the first area is obtained using the input and output row coefficient model
Momentum.
5. according to the freight demand simulating and predicting method described in any claims of claim 1-4, which is characterized in that it is described will be described
Prediction value of goods amount of flow is converted into the freight demand simulation and forecast amount of the first area, including：
It is equal to the relationship that price is multiplied by quantity of goods produced based on prediction value of goods amount of flow, the prediction value of goods amount of flow is turned
Turn to the freight demand simulation and forecast amount of the first area.
6. a kind of freight demand simulation and forecast device, which is characterized in that the freight demand simulation and forecast device includes：
Calibration module is used for commercial data of each department based on first area between base year and each region, calibration input
Output row coefficient model；
It predicts value of goods amount of flow computing module, is used for the estimation range total output value based on the first area, utilizes institute
State the prediction value of goods amount of flow that input and output row coefficient model obtains the first area；
Freight demand simulation and forecast amount computing module, for converting the prediction value of goods amount of flow to the first area
Freight demand simulation and forecast amount.
7. freight demand simulation and forecast device according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the calibration module includes：
Direct consumption coefficient computing unit, it is total for directly the consumption magnitude of value and department based on each department in the commercial data
Output obtains direct consumption coefficient using direct consumption coefficient formula；
Trade coefficient calculation unit is used for interregional discharge and total flux based on each department in the commercial data, profit
Trade coefficient is obtained with trade coefficient formula；
Input and output row coefficient model calibration unit, for being based on the direct consumption coefficient and the trade coefficient, calibration is thrown
Enter output row coefficient model.
8. freight demand simulation and forecast device according to claim 7, which is characterized in that the calibration module further includes：
Friction coefficient computing unit, for based on the volume of goods transported data between each region in the commercial data, being using friction
Number formula obtains friction coefficient；
Interregional discharge computing unit, for based on demand and supply data between each region in the commercial data and described
Friction coefficient obtains the corresponding interregional discharge of each department using interregional discharge formula.
9. freight demand simulation and forecast device according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the prediction value of goods flowing
Measuring computing module further includes：
Every profession and trade predicts that value added computing unit, the value added for obtaining first area every profession and trade described in the base year account for institute
The ratio for stating the regional production total value of first area distinguishes the estimation range total output value of the first area and the ratio
It is multiplied and obtains the every profession and trade prediction value added of the first area；
Gross Output computing unit is based on for every profession and trade prediction value added and direct consumption coefficient based on the first area
Equilibrium relation formula obtains Gross Output；
It predicts value of goods amount of flow computing unit, for being based on the Gross Output, utilizes the input and output row coefficient model
Obtain the prediction value of goods amount of flow of the first area.
10. a kind of computer read/write memory medium, which is characterized in that be stored with meter in the computer read/write memory medium
Calculation machine program instruction, when the computer program instructions are read and run by a processor, perform claim requires any one of 1-5 institutes
State the step in method.
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| CN116187887A (en) * | 2023-03-09 | 2023-05-30 | 交通运输部规划研究院 | Method for constructing and tracking traffic subsection door goods communication data |
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| CN109993374A (en) * | 2019-04-15 | 2019-07-09 | 成都四方伟业软件股份有限公司 | Car loading prediction technique and device |
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| CN111915099A (en) * | 2020-08-17 | 2020-11-10 | 北京交通大学 | Freight volume prediction system with visual freight information |
| CN111915099B (en) * | 2020-08-17 | 2024-05-03 | 北京交通大学 | Freight traffic prediction system with visualized freight information |
| CN116187887A (en) * | 2023-03-09 | 2023-05-30 | 交通运输部规划研究院 | Method for constructing and tracking traffic subsection door goods communication data |
| CN116187887B (en) * | 2023-03-09 | 2024-06-07 | 交通运输部规划研究院 | Method for constructing and tracking traffic subsection door goods communication data |
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