CN108663727A - The method for estimating height of evaporation duct within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate - Google Patents
The method for estimating height of evaporation duct within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of methods for estimating height of evaporation duct within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate, compared with existing direct measurement or estimation Atmosphere Refractivity Profile is to obtain the methods of height of evaporation duct indirectly, it need not first measure or estimate that entire Atmosphere Refractivity Profile obtains height of evaporation duct again, but by measuring single evaporation rate parameter, the valuation of height of evaporation duct is directly obtained.Utilize method proposed by the present invention, height of evaporation duct and evaporation rate quantitative relationship database within the scope of world marine site can be pre-established, it is embedded into existing evaporation duct environment historical data base, form into columns for marine vessel and the implementation of current evaporation duct environment assessed in different waters, and for communicating, radar, guidance, the systems such as electronic countermeasure aid decision.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the technical fields such as marine environmental monitoring, are related to the method for estimation height of evaporation duct, and in particular to
A method of height of evaporation duct being estimated within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate.
Background technology
Evaporation waveguide is a kind of since evaporation of seawater causes atmospheric humidity with highly exponentially decaying is formed by natural lead to
Road, Evaporation Phenomenon is existing for the moment on sea, therefore evaporation waveguide is a kind of intrinsic phenomenon in Atmosphere environment.According to system
Meter, China surrounding sea areas are the region occurred frequently of evaporation waveguide, probability of happening about 85%.Evaporation waveguide has distinctive atmospheric refraction
Rate structure, it is apparent different that this structure can cause propagation trajectories of the microwave signal in waveguide to be generated relative to normal atmospheric environment
Often.Height of evaporation duct refers to the point corresponding to modified index of refraction minimum value and the difference in height between sea on waveguide section,
Height of evaporation duct is the important parameter for portraying evaporation waveguide to microwave signal trapping capacity, shipborne radar and communication system
It works in height of evaporation duct or performance difference is larger on height of evaporation duct, it is therefore desirable to obtain around naval vessel in time
Height of evaporation duct is the essential condition for ensureing the radio systems performances such as naval vessel radar, communication, navigation, electronic countermeasure.
The main method that height of evaporation duct obtains at present mainly first obtains evaporation waveguide Atmosphere Refractivity Profile, then profit
With the location determination duct height of modified index of refraction minimum value, and can be divided into according to the acquisition modes difference of Atmosphere Refractivity Profile
It directly measures and estimation indirectly, indirectly estimation can be divided into model prediction, numerical forecast and inversion prediction three categories again.Directly measure
It is directly to measure Atmosphere Refractivity Profile using microwave refractometer, the height corresponding to the minimum value of refractive index profile is to steam
Duct height is sent out, but microwave refractometer is expensive, can only obtain the one point data information of measurement point, and by wind direction
Be affected, measurement error is larger, and difficult to install on naval vessel.Model prediction is to measure coastal waters using meteorological sensor
The meteorologic parameters such as face air themperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, seawater surface temperature, in conjunction with the prediction model of evaporation waveguide
Atmosphere Refractivity Profile data are calculated, to obtain height of evaporation duct again.The disadvantage is that need to measure five kinds of meteorologic parameters,
And it measures and is affected by hull, evaluated error is larger, and can only obtain the one point data information of measurement point.Numerical value is pre-
Reporting method is to utilize weather forecast numerical model, air themperature, relative humidity first in forecast certain area, atmospheric pressure, wind
The meteorologic parameters such as speed, seawater surface temperature obtain air index data and steaming in conjunction with evaporation waveguide prediction model to calculate
Send out duct height.The advantages of Numerical Prediction Method, can provide large area marine site, following several hours or tens hours
Index distribution predicted value is suitble to qualitative analysis.The disadvantage is that accuracy of the forecast depends on the accuracy of weather forecast, at present also
There are bigger prediction errors.Inversion prediction is to utilize the atmospheric refraction in collected electromagnetic wave signal inverting evaporation waveguide
Rate section and determining height of evaporation duct.
It can be seen that in the method for obtaining height of evaporation duct at present from above 4 kinds of methods and actually measure operating difficulties,
The method of connecing relates generally to intensive, cannot be satisfied real-time estimation.
Therefore, seek other real-time methods for obtaining height of evaporation duct, be the correct of naval vessel radar communications system
Operation provides aid decision, becomes the major issue of urgent need to resolve.
Invention content
Technical problems to be solved
Estimated within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate in order to avoid the shortcomings of the prior art, present invention proposition is a kind of
The method for calculating height of evaporation duct is solved currently based on refractive index profile is directly or indirectly obtained to further estimate coastal waters
The problem of face height of evaporation duct and deficiency.
Technical solution
A method of height of evaporation duct being estimated within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate, it is characterised in that step is such as
Under：
Step 1：Establish three parametric statistics regression model EDH=α EVP of evaporation rate and height of evaporation ductβeε, wherein
EVP and EDH indicates evaporation rate and height of evaporation duct data, e respectivelyεFor random factor, ε mean values are 0 and variance is σ2。α,β
It is unknowm coefficient to be fitted with σ；
Step 2：From the coastal waters for obtaining sometime span and plane coverage area in " NCEP CFSR again analytical database "
The atmospheric temperatures of the 2 meters of height in face, the wind speed away from the 10 meters of height in sea, the atmospheric pressure on sea, 2 meters away from sea height it is relatively wet
Degree, sea surface temperature Atmosphere and Ocean environmental data；Evaporation waveguide is calculated using the Evaporation duct model based on 3.0 algorithm of Air-sea heat fluxes
Highly, the height of evaporation duct history data set in corresponding time span and plane coverage area is obtained；
From obtained in " NCEP CFSR again analytical database " the sometime latent heat flux of span and plane coverage area and
Sea surface temperature Atmosphere and Ocean environmental data utilizes formula EVP=LHF/ ρwLeEvaporation rate is calculated, wherein EVP indicates evaporation rate, LHF
Indicate latent heat flux, ρwIt is density of sea water, value is 1027kg m-3, LeEvaporation latent heat is indicated, using formula Le=
[[2.501-(0.00237×SST)]]×106It is calculated, SST indicates sea surface temperature, obtains corresponding time span and plane
Evaporation rate history data set in coverage area；
Step 3：It takes natural logrithm to be linearized on the three parametric statistics regression model both sides established in step 1, obtains
Inearized model ln (EDH)=ln (α)+β ln (EVP)+ε, by the height of evaporation duct obtained in step 2 and evaporation rate data generation
Enter inearized model, factor alpha and β are obtained using least square fitting, then the α that will be obtained, β substitute into inearized model and calculate
To residual epsilon, σ is the standard deviation of residual epsilon, and after each parametric solution, evaporation waveguide height is obtained according to real-time evaporation rate data
The range of degree.
Change longitude and latitude, repeats step 2~step 3, establish under different longitude and latitude, α, the parameter database of β and σ obtain
Longitude and latitude-three parameter model database, i.e., under different waters position, height of evaporation duct and evaporation rate quantitative relationship data
Library.
The data collection time model of the statistical regression model solution of rate and height of evaporation duct is evaporated in the step 3
It encloses no less than 1 year.
Advantageous effect
A kind of method for estimating height of evaporation duct within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate proposed by the present invention, due to
Evaporation waveguide itself is generated due to evaporation of seawater, and what height of evaporation duct was evaporated is affected, thus evaporation rate with
Height of evaporation duct has prodigious relevance in physical essence.The present invention directly measures or estimates indirectly air folding with existing
It penetrates rate section to compare to obtain the methods of height of evaporation duct, it is not necessary to first measure or estimate entire Atmosphere Refractivity Profile again
Height of evaporation duct is obtained, but by measuring single evaporation rate parameter, directly obtain the valuation of height of evaporation duct.It utilizes
Method proposed by the present invention can pre-establish height of evaporation duct and evaporation rate quantitative relationship data within the scope of world marine site
Library is embedded into existing evaporation duct environment historical data base, is formed into columns in different waters for marine vessel to working as front evaporator wave
The implementation in lead ring border is assessed, and for communicating, radar, guidance, the systems such as electronic countermeasure aid decision.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1：Height of evaporation duct flow chart is calculated using Evaporation duct model.
Fig. 2：Calculate evaporation rate flow chart.
Fig. 3：Establish the flow chart of three parametric regression statistical models.
Fig. 4：The result and actual value comparison diagram of height of evaporation duct are estimated using three parameter model.
Specific implementation mode
In conjunction with embodiment, attached drawing, the invention will be further described：
It is proposed by the present invention that the technical scheme comprises the following steps：
Step 1：Establish three parametric statistics regression model EDH=α EVP of evaporation rate and height of evaporation ductβeε, wherein
EVP and EDH indicates evaporation rate and height of evaporation duct data, e respectivelyεFor random factor, ε mean values are 0 and variance is σ2。α,β
It is unknowm coefficient to be fitted with σ.
Step 2：From " NCEP CFSR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) analytical database again " in obtain certain time span and plane covering
The atmospheric temperature of 2 meters of height of Layer Near The Sea Surface of range, the wind speed away from the 10 meters of height in sea, the atmospheric pressure on sea, 2 meters away from sea height
The relative humidity of degree, sea surface temperature Atmosphere and Ocean environmental data, utilize the Evaporation duct model meter based on 3.0 algorithm of Air-sea heat fluxes
Height of evaporation duct is calculated, the height of evaporation duct history data set in corresponding time span and plane coverage area is obtained.
Step 3 (parallel with step 2)：From obtaining certain time span and plane in " NCEP CFSR again analytical database "
The latent heat flux and sea surface temperature Atmosphere and Ocean environmental data of coverage area, utilize formula EVP=LHF/ ρwLeEvaporation rate is calculated,
Wherein EVP indicates that evaporation rate, LHF indicate latent heat flux, ρwIt is density of sea water, value is 1027kg m-3, LeIndicate that evaporation is latent
Heat, using formula Le=[[2.501- (0.00237 × SST)]] × 106It is calculated, SST indicates sea surface temperature, obtains phase
Answer the evaporation rate history data set in time span and plane coverage area.
Step 4：It takes natural logrithm to be linearized on the three parametric statistics regression model both sides established in step 1, obtains
Inearized model ln (EDH)=ln (α)+β ln (EVP)+ε, by the height of evaporation duct obtained in step 2 and 3 and evaporation rate number
According to inearized model is substituted into, factor alpha and β are obtained using least square fitting, then the α that will be obtained, β substitute into inearized model meter
Calculation obtains residual epsilon, and σ is the standard deviation of residual epsilon, after each parametric solution, can be evaporated according to real-time evaporation rate data
The range of duct height；
The data collection time range for being evaporated the statistical regression model solution of rate and height of evaporation duct is no less than 1
Year, be carried out at the same time data longitude and latitude and time point matching, data can be include history evaporation rate data and evaporation waveguide height
Degrees of data, evaporation rate data can be by directly obtaining or being calculated using meteorologic parameter data in various analytical databases again
It arrives, height of evaporation duct data can be calculated by measured data or meteorologic parameter data combination evaporation waveguide prediction model
It arrives.
Step 5：The method proposed in recycling step 4, is established under different longitude and latitude, α, the parameter database of β and σ,
Obtain longitude and latitude-three parameter model database, i.e., under different waters position, height of evaporation duct and evaporation rate quantitative relationship number
According to library.
Step 6：In actual use, can be according to actual latitude and longitude coordinates position, the evaporation rate data that will be measured
Substitute into corresponding three parameter model, you can obtain under current location, the estimated value of height of evaporation duct.
Specific embodiment：
Fig. 1 is to calculate height of evaporation duct flow chart using Evaporation duct model, and the specific implementation mode of the method is such as
Under：
Step 1：Layer Near The Sea Surface Atmosphere and Ocean environmental data, including big temperature are obtained from NCEP CFSR again analytical database
Data are substituted into 3.0 Air-sea heat fluxes algorithms of TOGA COARE and fallen into a trap by degree, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, sea surface temperature, relative humidity etc.
Calculation obtains Monin-Obukhov scale parameters θ*And q*。
Step 2：Utilize formulaWithTemperature, humidity and air pressure are obtained with the section of height change, wherein T indicates temperature, and q is humidity,
z0θAnd z0qRespectively temperature and humidity roughness height, k are Karman constant, ΓdFor dry adiabatic lapse rate, z is apart from sea height
Degree, L are Obukhov length, and R is dry air gas constant, and g is acceleration of gravity, TvFor height z1And z2The virtual temperature at place is averaged
Value.
Step 3：The temperature obtained in step 2, humidity and the section of air pressure are substituted into modified index of refraction calculation formulaWherein T is atmospheric temperature, and P is air pressure, and e is vapour pressure, and z is distance sea
Face height, obtains modified index of refraction section M (z), on section modified index of refraction M minimum values to height be evaporation waveguide height
Degree, obtains the height of evaporation duct history data set in corresponding time span and spatial dimension.
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram for calculating evaporation rate and establishing evaporation rate history data set, the specific embodiment party of the method
Formula is as follows：The latent heat flux and Hai Biaowen of certain time span and spatial dimension are obtained from NCEP CFSR again analytical database
The Atmosphere and Oceans environmental datas such as degree, utilize formula EVP=LHF/ ρwLeEvaporation rate is calculated, wherein EVP indicates that evaporation rate, LHF indicate
Latent heat flux, ρwIt is density of sea water, value is 1027kg m-3, LeEvaporation latent heat is indicated, using formula Le=[2.501-
(0.00237×SST)]×106It is calculated, SST indicates sea surface temperature, obtains the steaming in corresponding time span and spatial dimension
Hair rate history data set.
Fig. 3 is the flow chart for establishing three parametric regression statistical models, and the specific implementation mode of the method is as follows：By example
Height of evaporation duct within the scope of 22 years of selected South Sea region marine site (17 ° of N-19 ° of N, 114 ° of E-116 ° of E) 1979-2000
Data and evaporation rate data substitute into statistical regression model EDH=α EVPβeεIn and linearized, calculated using least square fitting
Method obtains α=23.2057, β=0.4074, then is returned and substitute into inearized model ln (EDH)=ln (α)+β ln (EVP)+ε, system
Meter obtains standard deviation sigma=0.0884 of residual epsilon, and three parameter statistical models finally obtained corresponding to selected example marine site can be by α
=23.2057, β=0.4074, σ=0.0884 uniquely determine.
Fig. 4 is using height of evaporation duct data and evaporation rate data in the example marine site between 2001-2010 to above-mentioned
The result that three parameter statistical models that method determines are verified.(1) be evaporation rate and actual evaporation duct height data dissipate
Point diagram, (2) are the scatter plots of evaporation rate and prediction height of evaporation duct data.Red solid line is to utilize linear regression method in figure
Obtained from the scatterplot data fitting in scatter plot.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of method for estimating height of evaporation duct within the scope of world marine site using evaporation rate, it is characterised in that step is such as
Under：
Step 1：Establish three parametric statistics regression model EDH=α EVP of evaporation rate and height of evaporation ductβeε, wherein EVP and
EDH indicates evaporation rate and height of evaporation duct data, e respectivelyεFor random factor, ε mean values are 0 and variance is σ2.α, β and σ are
Unknowm coefficient to be fitted；
Step 2：From the Layer Near The Sea Surface 2 for obtaining sometime span and plane coverage area in " NCEP CFSR again analytical database "
The atmospheric temperature of meter Gao Du, the wind speed away from the 10 meters of height in sea, the atmospheric pressure on sea, the relative humidity away from the 2 meters of height in sea,
Sea surface temperature Atmosphere and Ocean environmental data；It is high that evaporation waveguide is calculated using the Evaporation duct model based on 3.0 algorithm of Air-sea heat fluxes
Degree, obtains the height of evaporation duct history data set in corresponding time span and plane coverage area；
From the latent heat flux and Hai Biao for obtaining sometime span and plane coverage area in " NCEP CFSR again analytical database "
Temperature Atmosphere and Ocean environmental data utilizes formula EVP=LHF/ ρwLeEvaporation rate is calculated, wherein EVP indicates that evaporation rate, LHF indicate
Latent heat flux, ρwIt is density of sea water, value is 1027kg m-3, LeEvaporation latent heat is indicated, using formula Le=[2.501-
(0.00237×SST)]×106It is calculated, SST indicates sea surface temperature, obtains in corresponding time span and plane coverage area
Evaporation rate history data set；
Step 3：It takes natural logrithm to be linearized on the three parametric statistics regression model both sides established in step 1, obtains linear
Change model ln (EDH)=ln (α)+β ln (EVP)+ε, the height of evaporation duct obtained in step 2 and evaporation rate data are substituted into line
Property model, factor alpha and β are obtained using least square fitting, then the α that will be obtained, β substitute into inearized model be calculated it is residual
Poor ε, σ are the standard deviation of residual epsilon, and after each parametric solution, height of evaporation duct is obtained according to real-time evaporation rate data
Range.
2. the method for utilizing evaporation rate to estimate height of evaporation duct within the scope of world marine site according to claim 1, special
Sign is：Change longitude and latitude, repeat step 2~step 3, establish under different longitude and latitude, α, the parameter database of β and σ, obtain through
Latitude-three parameter model database, i.e., under different waters position, height of evaporation duct and evaporation rate quantitative relationship database.
3. the method for utilizing evaporation rate to estimate height of evaporation duct within the scope of world marine site according to claim 1, special
Sign is：The data collection time model of the statistical regression model solution of rate and height of evaporation duct is evaporated in the step 3
It encloses no less than 1 year.
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| CN116452053A (en) * | 2023-04-19 | 2023-07-18 | 广东科技学院 | Ship structure fire fighting capability comprehensive evaluation method based on three-parameter interval gray number |
| CN117235903A (en) * | 2023-11-14 | 2023-12-15 | 中海油能源发展股份有限公司采油服务分公司 | LNG ship natural evaporation BOG prediction method and system |
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| CN117235903A (en) * | 2023-11-14 | 2023-12-15 | 中海油能源发展股份有限公司采油服务分公司 | LNG ship natural evaporation BOG prediction method and system |
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