CN108649571B - Emergency blocking method for cascading failures based on accident chain model - Google Patents
Emergency blocking method for cascading failures based on accident chain model Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/001—Methods to deal with contingencies, e.g. abnormalities, faults or failures
Abstract
The invention discloses an accident chain model-based cascading failure emergency blocking method, which comprises the steps of firstly, on the basis of actual power grid data, adopting an electromechanical transient time domain simulation method to perform offline calculation and search on a high-risk accident chain, considering the configuration information of the existing emergency control system, and screening out an accident chain set which is not configured with emergency control measures in the previous 2 events from the high-risk accident chain; secondly, an off-line calculation method is adopted, an emergency control strategy is configured for the 2 nd event of the accident chain, and the chain accident chain evolution process can be guaranteed to be blocked; finally, the emergency control system determines the 1 st and 2 nd events of the accident chain to occur successively as the necessary conditions for triggering the emergency control measures on the basis of completing the real-time matching of the operation modes, and the control economy and timeliness are considered. The invention can block the cascading failure developed by the successive disturbance without configuring the emergency control measure in time, avoid missing the control opportunity and reduce the system loss.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an accident chain model-based cascading failure emergency blocking method, and belongs to the technical field of power system automation.
Background
The ultrahigh voltage direct current transmission and the rapid development of new energy technology realize the function of optimizing and configuring large-range energy resources and meet the urgent requirements on the aspects of clean energy delivery, energy conservation, emission reduction and the like. The characteristics of energy resources in China determine that new energy in China adopts a centralized development and outward delivery mode, for example, a northwest power grid in China, 8 direct currents are put into operation by 2017, the total rated capacity exceeds 4000 ten thousand kilowatts, and meanwhile, large-scale new energy clusters are gathered in the near region of a direct current cluster. However, according to the 'notice about further regulation and control of coal and electricity planning construction' of the national energy agency, the thermal power construction matched with the ultrahigh voltage direct current transmission project in China is completely lagged in a certain period of time at present, so that the frequency modulation and voltage regulation capability of the system is weak, namely a weak synchronous power grid, and in addition, the constraint of insufficient grid involvement capability of new energy still exists. Under the scene, the influence of multiple direct currents and new energy on an alternating current power grid and the interactive coupling between the multiple direct currents and the new energy are gradually deepened, so that a cascading failure mode and an evolution process of a system are more complicated, and a cascading failure control method under the environment of coexistence of the new energy and the multiple direct currents needs to be further deeply researched.
The configuration condition of three defense lines is a key factor influencing the evolution process of the cascading failure, and a plurality of documents are researched. However, in the scene of a large-scale new energy and a multi-direct-current output power grid, according to the existing control configuration principle, some disturbances (such as direct-current commutation failure, fan offline and the like) have no emergency control measures, but the disturbances may further cause subsequent disturbances to further cause cascading failures, and finally, the control opportunity is missed according to the configuration situation of the existing emergency control system, so that the system loss is greatly increased. Therefore, emergency measures are necessary to be configured for the single disturbance which can evolve into the cascading accident but has no emergency measure, so that the existing second defense line is supplemented and perfected, and the blocking capability of the emergency control of the second defense line on the cascading failure evolution process is further enhanced. However, no relevant documents are reported at present.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides an accident chain model-based cascading failure emergency blocking method, which can timely block cascading failures formed by successive disturbance without emergency control measures, and avoid missing control opportunities.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
a cascading failure emergency blocking method based on an accident chain model comprises the following steps:
1) based on different operation mode data of an actual power grid, an initial fault set is determined according to expert experience, and an electromechanical transient time domain simulation method is adopted to search a high-risk cascading fault accident chain set L (L) in an off-line calculation mode1,L2,…,LuIn which L isi＝{Ti1,Ti2,…,TivIs the ith accident chain, TijThe j event of the ith accident chain is represented by i 1,2, …, u, j 1,2, …, v, u is the number of accident chains in the accident chain set, and v is the number of events in an accident chain;
2) and (3) screening an accident chain set without emergency control measures in the first 2 events from the accident chain set L by combining the configuration situation of the existing emergency control system of the actual power grid: n ═ N1,N2,…,NmIn which N isi＝{Si1,Si2,…,SiwIs the ith accident chain, SijThe j event of the ith accident chain is represented by i being 1,2, …, m, j being 1,2, …, w, m being the number of accident chains without emergency control measures configured in the previous 2 events, and v being the number of events in one accident chain; accident chain NiMiddle event Si1、Si2Emergency control measures are not configured;
3) adopting a time domain simulation off-line calculation method to screen each accident chain N in the accident chain set Ni2 nd event S in (1)i2Performing emergency control strategy calculation to ensure emergency control of calculationStrategy CiCan block the accident chain NiThe evolution process of (2);
4) the emergency control system detects an accident chain N in a starting period on the basis of completing real-time matching of the operation modesi1 st event Si1And 2 nd event Si2After the successive determinations have occurred, an emergency control strategy C is implementediBlocking the chain of chain accidents Ni。
In the foregoing step 1), the calculation process of the accident chain set is as follows:
1-1) assuming that the operation mode set has a operation modes, the initial event set has b events, and all combinations are calculated from the 1 st operation mode in the operation mode set and the 1 st event in the initial event set;
1-2) transient stability calculation is carried out by adopting a time domain simulation method, the configuration condition of three defense line safety and stability control devices of the power system is considered in the calculation process, and the simulation result is an electromechanical transient change process of the electric quantity of the power system before, during and after an event, so that the transient stability of the power system can be represented;
1-3) judging whether the power system has load loss, if so, entering a step 1-4), and if not, entering a step 1-5);
1-4) judging whether the load loss is larger than a set threshold value, if so, entering a step 1-7), otherwise, entering a step 1-5);
1-5) judging whether a safety and stability control device of three defense lines of the power system acts, if so, taking an action event as a next event, and entering the step 1-2), otherwise, entering the step 1-6);
1-6) determining key electrical components near the event occurrence area needing important attention according to the prior operation experience and the relevant information of the event, calculating the action evaluation index lambda of the control protection device of the key electrical components, and setting an evaluation index threshold-lambdarefIf the evaluation index lambda is less than-lambda, judging the evaluation index lambda value, if the evaluation index lambda is less than-lambdarefThe control protection device of the key electrical component(s) is selected to have the largest absolute value, and the control protection device of the key component(s) is operated as the next oneEvent, entering step 1-2), otherwise entering 1-7);
1-7) forming an accident chain at least comprising 1 event based on the steps 1-1) to 1-6), if the current accident chain develops to the m level, calculating the risk cost R of the accident chain, and if the risk cost is greater than the threshold value RkIf so, storing the formed accident chain, and entering the step 1-8), otherwise, directly entering the step 1-8);
1-8) judging whether the operation mode set and the initial event set are scanned completely, if so, ending the search process, and outputting all accident chain sets: l ═ L1,L2,…,Lu}; otherwise, returning to the step 1-1) and continuing the next scanning calculation.
In the foregoing steps 1-6), the action evaluation index λ is defined as: λ ═ Ecr.min-E′cr.i，
Wherein E iscr.minIs the minimum value of the electric quantity in the dynamic process, E'cr.iIs determined as follows:
assuming that the action criterion of the control protection device is a plurality of binary tables [ (E)cr.1,Tcr.1),(Ecr.2,Tcr.2),…,(Ecr.i,Tcr.i)]Introducing a scaling factor k to apply a 2-dimensional critical condition (E)cr.i,Tcr.i) Critical condition (E ') converted into 1-dimensional'cr.i0), i.e. E'cr.i＝Ecr.i-kTcr.iWherein E iscr.i、Tcr.iRespectively, a threshold value and a duration limit value for controlling the action of the protection device.
In the foregoing steps 1-7), the risk cost R is calculated as follows:
wherein, P (d)j|d1d2…dj-1) Is the conditional probability of occurrence of the j-th order event, djAs a j-th order event, GjThe control cost after the j-th stage event occurs.
In the foregoing step 3), the emergency control strategy is calculated as follows:
31) based on event Si2The corresponding operation mode is to the event S according to the regulation of the safety and stability guide rule of the power systemi2Taking emergency control measures, preferentially taking emergency direct current power support measures, secondly taking emergency load shedding measures and finally taking emergency load shedding measures according to the order of cost performance;
32) event S, if prescribed according to the electric Power System safety and stability guidelinesi2There is no need to configure emergency control measures, but considering from the perspective of preventing and controlling the risk of cascading failure and avoiding larger loss of the system, it should be the event Si2Configuring the emergency control measures, still according to 31).
In the aforementioned step 4), if the event S occursi1Or Si2For a large-scale off-grid event of the wind turbine generator, fan off-grid quantity needs to be increased as an auxiliary criterion.
The invention achieves the following beneficial effects: the invention can block the cascading failure formed by the successive disturbance without configuring the emergency control measure in time, avoids missing the control opportunity, reduces the loss of the system, and supplements and perfects the blocking capability of the existing emergency control system to the cascading failure.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
As shown in fig. 1, the cascading failure emergency blocking method based on the accident chain model of the present invention includes the following steps:
step 1, determining an initial fault set according to expert experience based on different operation mode data of an actual power grid, and searching a high-risk cascading fault accident chain set L (L) by offline calculation by adopting an electromechanical transient time domain simulation method1,L2,…,LuThe specific process is as follows:
1-1) assuming that the operation mode set has a operation modes, the initial event set has b events, and all combinations are calculated from the 1 st operation mode in the operation mode set and the 1 st event in the initial event set;
1-2) transient stability calculation is carried out by adopting a time domain simulation method, the configuration condition of three defense line safety and stability control devices of the power system is considered in the calculation process, and the simulation result is an electromechanical transient change process of the electric quantity of the power system before, during and after an event, so that the transient stability of the power system can be represented;
1-3) judging whether the power system has load loss, if so, entering a step 1-4), and if not, entering a step 1-5);
1-4) judging whether the load loss is larger than a set threshold value, if so, entering a step 1-7), otherwise, entering a step 1-5);
1-5) judging whether a safety and stability control device of three defense lines of the power system acts, if so, taking an action event as a next event, and entering the step 1-2), otherwise, entering the step 1-6);
1-6) assuming action criterion of the control protection device to be a plurality of binary meters (such as high and low voltage ride through protection fixed value of a fan)
In order to avoid loss of generality, a conversion factor k is introduced by taking the concept of quantitative analysis of the acceptability of transient frequency shift as reference, and a 2-dimensional critical condition (E) is adoptedcr.i,Tcr.i) Critical condition (E ') converted into 1-dimensional'cr.i0), i.e. E'cr.i＝Ecr.i-kTcr.iSo as to improve the linearity and smoothness of the margin-parameter relation curve. Wherein E iscr.i、Tcr.iRespectively, a threshold value and a duration limit value for controlling the action of the protection device. Defining an evaluation index for controlling the action of the protection device: λ ═ Ecr.min-E′cr.iWherein E iscr.minIs the minimum value of the electric quantity in the dynamic process.
Determining key electrical components near the event occurrence area needing important attention according to the prior operation experience and the related information of the event, and calculating the action evaluation of the control protection device of the key electrical componentsEstimate index λ ═ Ecr.min-E′cr.iSetting an evaluation index threshold value-lambdarefIf the evaluation index lambda is less than-lambda, judging the evaluation index lambda value, if the evaluation index lambda is less than-lambdarefSelecting the control protection device of the key electrical element with the largest absolute value, taking the action of the control protection device of the key element as the next event, and entering the step 1-2), otherwise, entering the step 1-7);
1-7) based on steps 1-1) to 1-6), an accident chain containing at least 1 event can be formed, and if the current accident chain develops to the m-th level, the risk cost of the accident chain is defined as
In the formula, P (d)j|d1d2…dj-1) Is the conditional probability of occurrence of the j-th order event, djAs a j-th order event, GjThe control cost after the j-th stage event occurs.
Calculating the risk cost R of the formed accident chain, and if the risk cost is greater than the threshold value RkIf so, storing the formed accident chain, and entering the step 1-8), otherwise, directly entering the step 1-8);
1-8) judging whether the operation mode set and the initial event set are scanned completely, if so, ending the search process, and outputting all accident chain sets L ═ { L ═ L1,L2,…,LuThe ith accident chain is Li＝{Ti1,Ti2,…,Tiv}，TijAnd f, for the j event of the ith accident chain, i is 1,2, …, u, j is 1,2, …, v, otherwise, returning to the step 1-1), and continuing to calculate the next scanning.
Step 2, combining the configuration situation of the existing emergency control system of the actual power grid, screening out the accident chain set N ═ N where the emergency control measures are not configured in the first 2 events from the accident chain set L1,N2,…,Nm}，
Wherein, the ith accident chain Ni＝{Si1,Si2,…,Siw}，SijJ is 1,2, …, w and is the j event of the ith accident chainiMiddle event Si1、Si2Not provided with emergency controlAnd (5) preparing measures.
Step 3, adopting a time domain simulation off-line calculation method to carry out the calculation on each accident chain N in the screened accident chain set Ni2 nd event S in (1)i2Performing emergency control strategy calculation to ensure the emergency control strategy CiCan block the accident chain NiThe calculation process is as follows:
3-1) based on event Si2The corresponding operation mode is to the event S according to the regulation of the safety and stability guide rule of the power systemi2Taking emergency control measures, preferentially taking emergency direct current power support measures, secondly taking emergency load shedding measures and finally taking emergency load shedding measures according to the order of cost performance;
3-2) event S if stipulated in "Power System safety and stability guidelinesi2There is no need to configure emergency control measures, but considering from the perspective of preventing and controlling the risk of cascading failure and avoiding larger loss of the system, it should be the event Si2And emergency control measures are configured, and the configuration principle and method are the same as 3-1).
Step 4, the emergency control system detects the accident chain N in a starting period on the basis of completing the real-time matching of the operation modesi1 st event Si1And 2 nd event Si2After the successive determinations have occurred, an emergency control strategy C is implementediBlocking the chain of chain accidents NiThe specific control principle is as follows:
4-1) there is a certain uncertainty in the occurrence of each event due to the accident chain, namely event Si1Does not mean that a subsequent event S occursi2To take into account the economic and time-dependent nature of the control and avoid excessive control, the emergency control strategy is executed from the first 2 events Si1And Si2The collective decision, i.e. the condition for performing emergency control measures, being event Si1、Si2Determining occurrence successively;
4-2) if event Si1Or Si2For a large-scale grid disconnection event of a wind turbine generator, the grid disconnection amount of a fan needs to be increased to serve as an auxiliary criterion so as to identify a chain accident chain more accurately.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, several modifications and variations can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and variations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A cascading failure emergency blocking method based on an accident chain model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) based on different operation mode data of an actual power grid, an initial fault set is determined according to expert experience, and an electromechanical transient time domain simulation method is adopted to search a high-risk cascading fault accident chain set L (L) in an off-line calculation mode1,L2,…,LuIn which L isi＝{Ti1,Ti2,…,TivIs the ith accident chain, TijThe j event of the ith accident chain is represented by i 1,2, …, u, j 1,2, …, v, u is the number of accident chains in the accident chain set, and v is the number of events in an accident chain;
2) and (3) screening an accident chain set without emergency control measures in the first 2 events from the accident chain set L by combining the configuration situation of the existing emergency control system of the actual power grid: n ═ N1,N2,…,NmIn which N isi＝{Si1,Si2,…,SiwIs the ith accident chain, SijThe j event of the ith accident chain is represented by i being 1,2, …, m, j being 1,2, …, w, m being the number of accident chains without emergency control measures configured in the previous 2 events, and v being the number of events in one accident chain; accident chain NiMiddle event Si1、Si2Emergency control measures are not configured;
3) adopting a time domain simulation off-line calculation method to screen each accident chain N in the accident chain set Ni2 nd event S in (1)i2Emergency control strategy C for calculating emergency control strategy and ensuring calculationiCan block the accident chain NiThe evolution process of (2);
the emergency control strategy is calculated as follows:
31) based on event Si2The corresponding operation mode is to the event S according to the regulation of the safety and stability guide rule of the power systemi2Taking emergency control measures, preferentially taking emergency direct current power support measures, secondly taking emergency load shedding measures and finally taking emergency load shedding measures according to the order of cost performance;
32) event S, if prescribed according to the electric Power System safety and stability guidelinesi2There is no need to configure emergency control measures, but considering from the perspective of preventing and controlling the risk of cascading failure and avoiding larger loss of the system, it should be the event Si2Configuring emergency control measures, still according to 31);
4) the emergency control system detects an accident chain N in a starting period on the basis of completing real-time matching of the operation modesi1 st event Si1And 2 nd event Si2After the successive determinations have occurred, an emergency control strategy C is implementediBlocking the chain of chain accidents Ni。
2. The method for cascading failure emergency blocking based on the accident chain model according to claim 1, wherein in the step 1), the accident chain set is calculated as follows:
1-1) assuming that the operation mode set has a operation modes, the initial event set has b events, and all combinations are calculated from the 1 st operation mode in the operation mode set and the 1 st event in the initial event set;
1-2) transient stability calculation is carried out by adopting a time domain simulation method, the configuration condition of three defense line safety and stability control devices of the power system is considered in the calculation process, and the simulation result is an electromechanical transient change process of the electric quantity of the power system before, during and after an event, so that the transient stability of the power system can be represented;
1-3) judging whether the power system has load loss, if so, entering a step 1-4), and if not, entering a step 1-5);
1-4) judging whether the load loss is larger than a set threshold value, if so, entering a step 1-7), otherwise, entering a step 1-5);
1-5) judging whether a safety and stability control device of three defense lines of the power system acts, if so, taking an action event as a next event, and entering the step 1-2), otherwise, entering the step 1-6);
1-6) determining key electrical components near the event occurrence area needing important attention according to the prior operation experience and the relevant information of the event, calculating the action evaluation index lambda of the control protection device of the key electrical components, and setting an evaluation index threshold-lambdarefIf the evaluation index lambda is less than-lambda, judging the evaluation index lambda value, if the evaluation index lambda is less than-lambdarefSelecting the action of the control protection device of the key element with the maximum absolute value as the next event, and entering the step 1-2), otherwise, entering the step 1-7);
1-7) forming an accident chain at least comprising 1 event based on the steps 1-1) to 1-6), if the current accident chain develops to the m level, calculating the risk cost R of the accident chain, and if the risk cost is greater than the threshold value RkIf so, storing the formed accident chain, and entering the step 1-8), otherwise, directly entering the step 1-8);
1-8) judging whether the operation mode set and the initial event set are scanned completely, if so, ending the search process, and outputting all accident chain sets: l ═ L1,L2,…,Lu}; otherwise, returning to the step 1-1) and continuing the next scanning calculation.
3. The method for cascading failure emergency blocking based on the accident chain model according to claim 2, wherein in the step 1-6), the action evaluation index λ is defined as: λ ═ Ecr.min-E'cr.i，
Wherein E iscr.minIs the minimum value of the electric quantity in the dynamic process, E'cr.iIs determined as follows:
assuming that the action criterion of the control protection device is a plurality of binary tables [ (E)cr.1,Tcr.1),(Ecr.2,Tcr.2),…,(Ecr.i,Tcr.i)]Introducing a scaling factor k to apply a 2-dimensional critical condition (E)cr.i,Tcr.i) Critical condition (E ') converted into 1-dimensional'cr.i,0) I.e. E'cr.i＝Ecr.i-kTcr.iWherein E iscr.i、Tcr.iRespectively, a threshold value and a duration limit value for controlling the action of the protection device.
4. The method for cascading failure emergency blocking based on the accident chain model according to claim 2, wherein in the step 1-7), the risk cost R is calculated as follows:
wherein, P (d)j|d1d2…dj-1) Is the conditional probability of occurrence of the j-th order event, djAs a j-th order event, GjThe control cost after the j-th stage event occurs.
5. The method for cascading failure emergency blocking based on accident chain model according to claim 1, wherein in step 4), if the event S occurs, the emergency blocking method is appliedi1Or Si2For a large-scale off-grid event of the wind turbine generator, fan off-grid quantity needs to be increased as an auxiliary criterion.
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