CN108647431B - Method for calculating degradation fault rate of transformer insulation paper - Google Patents
Method for calculating degradation fault rate of transformer insulation paper Download PDFInfo
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- CN108647431B CN108647431B CN201810439069.2A CN201810439069A CN108647431B CN 108647431 B CN108647431 B CN 108647431B CN 201810439069 A CN201810439069 A CN 201810439069A CN 108647431 B CN108647431 B CN 108647431B
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Abstract
The invention relates to the field of power systems and automation thereof, in particular to a method for calculating the degradation fault rate of transformer insulation paper. Aiming at how to deal with the problems of large data, such as multiple types, large quantity and complex interrelation, which are involved in the evaluation of the degradation fault state of the transformer insulation paper, the big data is processed and analyzed by adopting a data clustering principle on the basis of establishing a big database; and (3) processing and analyzing random and fuzzy uncertainty parameters related to the degradation fault state evaluation of the transformer insulation paper by adopting a probability fuzzy set theory. By utilizing the method for calculating the degradation fault rate of the insulation paper of the transformer, provided by the invention, the degradation fault state of the insulation paper of the transformer can be evaluated, the uncertainty of the characteristic value of the degradation fault state of the insulation paper of the transformer is reflected, theoretical guidance is provided for the evaluation of the degradation fault state of the insulation paper of the transformer, and necessary technical support is provided for the operation and maintenance of a power distribution network.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power systems and automation thereof, in particular to a method for calculating the degradation fault rate of transformer insulation paper.
Background
The number of transformers is large, deterioration and defects of different degrees exist, and the transformers have familiarity and concealment and are difficult to detect and evaluate in time. Due to the fact that the operation years, the environment, the overhaul and the like are greatly different and are influenced by multiple factors, the difficulty and the complexity of evaluation of the degradation state of the transformer operation insulation paper are increased, and the higher requirements of accurate and intelligent evaluation cannot be met.
The parameters related to the insulating paper, such as paper dielectric loss, water content in the paper, paper breakdown voltage, paper conductivity, acid value in the paper, paper polymerization degree, total acid value of the paper, furfural content in the paper, paper color and luster, have different values under different environmental and meteorological conditions, and the influencing factors usually have random uncertainty or fuzzy uncertainty or have random and fuzzy uncertainty and often exist in random and fuzzy uncertainty events or parameters. It can be seen that, in the prior art for evaluating the degradation fault state of the conventional transformer insulation paper, the uncertainty and randomness of the influence factors are not considered comprehensively, and the applicability, the practicability and the applicability of the calculation method are difficult to meet.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and adopts a method for calculating the degradation fault rate of the insulation paper of the transformer. Aiming at how to deal with the problems of large data, such as multiple types, large quantity and complex interrelation, which are involved in the evaluation of the degradation fault state of the transformer insulation paper, the big data is processed and analyzed by adopting a data clustering principle on the basis of establishing a big database; and (3) processing and analyzing random and fuzzy uncertainty parameters related to the degradation fault state evaluation of the transformer insulation paper by adopting a probability fuzzy set theory.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a transformer insulation paper degradation fault rate calculation method is provided, transformer faults depend on abnormal change characteristics of transformer insulation paper, transformer fault probability is calculated and determined according to probability principle by abnormal change characteristic values of the transformer insulation paper, parameters related to transformer insulation paper degradation fault state evaluation include: paper medium loss, water content in paper, paper breakdown voltage, paper conductivity, acid value in paper, paper polymerization degree, total acid value of paper, furfural content in paper and paper color; clustering the abnormal change characteristic values of the transformer insulation paper with random uncertainty to construct a transformer insulation paper degradation fault rate calculation function, and the method comprises the following steps of;
s1: constructing a transformer insulation paper data set and calculating a probability numerical value; constructing a transformer insulation paper characteristic data set x by using paper medium loss, water content in paper, paper breakdown voltage, paper conductivity, acid value in paper, paper polymerization degree, total paper acid value, furfural content in paper and paper colorSPComprises the following steps:
in the formula xSP1、xSP2、xSP3、...、
Is a data set related to the dielectric loss of transformer paper, the water content in paper, the breakdown voltage of paper, the conductivity of paper, the acid value in paper, the degree of polymerization of paper, the total acid value of paper, the amount of furfural in paper and the color of paper, NSPThe number of the characteristic class data sets of the transformer insulation paper is set;
data set x of a-th transformer insulation paperSPaComprises the following steps:
in the formula xSPa1、xSPa2、...、
For the a-th transformer insulation paper data set x obtained from the testSPaElement data value, NSPaInsulation paper data set x for a transformerSPaThe number of elements of (a);
obtaining data information of transformer insulation paper detection, test and the like from a related database system, and determining the a-th transformer insulation paper data set x by adopting a simulation methodSPaThe mean value mu of the ith element of (1) which changes according to the normal distribution ruleSPaiSum variance σSPaiDetermining the average value mu of the medium loss, the water content in the paper, the paper breakdown voltage, the paper conductivity, the acid value in the paper, the paper polymerization degree, the total acid value of the paper, the furfural content in the paper and the paper color change according to the normal distribution ruleSP1Sum variance σSP1Mean value of μSP2Sum variance σSP2Mean value of μSP3Sum variance σSP3Mean value of μSP4Sum variance σSP4Mean value of μSP5Sum variance σSP5Mean value of μSP6Sum variance σSP6Mean value of μSP7Sum variance σSP7Mean value of μSP8Sum variance σSP8Mean value of μSP9Sum variance σSP9；
S2: calculating the fault rate of the transformer based on the insulating paper elements; introducing an influence factor k based on a plurality of paper element association analysisTOCalculating the data set x of the insulation paper of the a-th transformerSOaThe deterioration failure probability of the transformer insulating paper:
where erf (y) is an error function expressed as:
s3: calculating the degradation fault rate of the transformer insulation paper: introduction of an influencing factor kTCalculating the voltage of the transformerEdge paper
Probability of degradation failure:
the invention has the advantages that; by utilizing the method for calculating the degradation fault rate of the insulation paper of the transformer, provided by the invention, the degradation fault state of the insulation paper of the transformer can be evaluated, the uncertainty of the characteristic value of the degradation fault state of the insulation paper of the transformer is reflected, theoretical guidance is provided for the evaluation of the degradation fault state of the insulation paper of the transformer, and necessary technical support is provided for the operation and maintenance of a power distribution network.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a block flow diagram of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the patent; for the purpose of better illustrating the embodiments, certain features of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced, and do not represent the size of an actual product; it will be understood by those skilled in the art that certain well-known structures in the drawings and descriptions thereof may be omitted. The positional relationships depicted in the drawings are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be construed as limiting the present patent.
Example 1:
as shown in fig. 1, a method for calculating a degradation fault rate of transformer insulation paper, where a transformer fault depends on abnormal change characteristics of the transformer insulation paper, a transformer fault probability is calculated and determined according to a probability principle from abnormal change characteristic values of the transformer insulation paper, and parameters related to state evaluation of the transformer insulation paper degradation fault include: paper medium loss, water content in paper, paper breakdown voltage, paper conductivity, acid value in paper, paper polymerization degree, total acid value of paper, furfural content in paper and paper color; clustering the abnormal change characteristic values of the transformer insulation paper with random uncertainty to construct a transformer insulation paper degradation fault rate calculation function, and the method comprises the following steps of; s1: constructing a transformer insulation paper data set and calculating a probability numerical value; dielectric loss from paper, water content in paper, paper breakdown voltage, paper conductivityAcid value in paper, paper polymerization degree, total acid value of paper, furfural content in paper and paper color, and constructing a transformer insulating paper characteristic data set xSPComprises the following steps:
in the formula xSP1、xSP2、xSP3、...、
Is a data set related to the dielectric loss of transformer paper, the water content in paper, the breakdown voltage of paper, the conductivity of paper, the acid value in paper, the degree of polymerization of paper, the total acid value of paper, the amount of furfural in paper and the color of paper, NSPThe number of the characteristic class data sets of the transformer insulation paper is set;
data set x of a-th transformer insulation paperSPaComprises the following steps:
in the formula xSPa1、xSPa2、...、
For the a-th transformer insulation paper data set x obtained from the testSPaElement data value, NSPaInsulation paper data set x for a transformerSPaThe number of elements of (a);
obtaining data information of transformer insulation paper detection, test and the like from a related database system, and determining the a-th transformer insulation paper data set x by adopting a simulation methodSPaThe mean value mu of the ith element of (1) which changes according to the normal distribution ruleSPaiSum variance σSPaiDetermining the average value mu of the medium loss, the water content in the paper, the paper breakdown voltage, the paper conductivity, the acid value in the paper, the paper polymerization degree, the total acid value of the paper, the furfural content in the paper and the paper color change according to the normal distribution ruleSP1Sum variance σSP1Mean value of μSP2Sum variance σSP2Mean value of μSP3Sum variance σSP3Mean value of μSP4Sum variance σSP4Mean value of μSP5Sum variance σSP5Mean value of μSP6Sum variance σSP6Mean value of μSP7Sum variance σSP7Mean value of μSP8Sum variance σSP8Mean value of μSP9Sum variance σSP9；
S2: calculating the fault rate of the transformer based on the insulating paper elements; introducing an influence factor k based on a plurality of paper element association analysisTOCalculating the data set x of the insulation paper of the a-th transformerSOaThe deterioration failure probability of the transformer insulating paper:
where erf (y) is an error function expressed as:
s3: calculating the degradation fault rate of the transformer insulation paper: introduction of an influencing factor kTAnd calculating the degradation fault probability of the transformer insulation paper:
it should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. A method for calculating the degradation fault rate of transformer insulation paper is characterized in that the transformer fault depends on the abnormal change characteristics of the transformer insulation paper, the transformer fault probability is calculated and determined according to the probability principle by the abnormal change characteristic value of the transformer insulation paper, and parameters related to the state evaluation of the degradation fault of the transformer insulation paper comprise: paper medium loss, water content in paper, paper breakdown voltage, paper conductivity, acid value in paper, paper polymerization degree, total acid value of paper, furfural content in paper and paper color; clustering the abnormal change characteristic values of the transformer insulation paper with random uncertainty to construct a transformer insulation paper degradation fault rate calculation function, and the method comprises the following steps of;
s1: constructing a transformer insulation paper data set and calculating a probability numerical value; constructing a transformer insulation paper characteristic data set x by using paper medium loss, water content in paper, paper breakdown voltage, paper conductivity, acid value in paper, paper polymerization degree, total paper acid value, furfural content in paper and paper colorSPComprises the following steps:
in the formula
Is a data set related to the dielectric loss of transformer paper, the water content in paper, the breakdown voltage of paper, the conductivity of paper, the acid value in paper, the degree of polymerization of paper, the total acid value of paper, the amount of furfural in paper and the color of paper, NSPThe number of the characteristic class data sets of the transformer insulation paper is set;
data set x of a-th transformer insulation paperSPaComprises the following steps:
in the formula
For insulation of the a-th transformer obtained from the testPaper data set xSPaElement data value, NSPaInsulation paper data set x for a transformerSPaThe number of elements of (a);
obtaining data information of transformer insulation paper detection and test from related database system, and determining the a-th transformer insulation paper data set x by adopting simulation methodSPaThe mean value mu of the ith element of (1) which changes according to the normal distribution ruleSPaiSum variance σSPaiDetermining the average value mu of the medium loss, the water content in the paper, the paper breakdown voltage, the paper conductivity, the acid value in the paper, the paper polymerization degree, the total acid value of the paper, the furfural content in the paper and the paper color change according to the normal distribution ruleSP1Sum variance σSP1Mean value of μSP2Sum variance σSP2Mean value of μSP3Sum variance σSP3Mean value of μSP4Sum variance σSP4Mean value of μSP5Sum variance σSP5Mean value of μSP6Sum variance σSP6Mean value of μSP7Sum variance σSP7Mean value of μSP8Sum variance σSP8Mean value of μSP9Sum variance σSP9；
S2: calculating the fault rate of the transformer based on the insulating paper elements; introducing an influence factor K based on a plurality of paper element correlation analysesSPaCalculating the data set x of the insulation paper of the a-th transformerSOaThe deterioration failure probability of the transformer insulating paper:
where erf (y) is an error function expressed as:
s3: calculating the degradation fault rate of the transformer insulation paper: introduction of an influencing factor kTAnd calculating the degradation fault probability of the transformer insulation paper:
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Effective date of registration: 20210309 Address after: No.757 Dongfeng East Road, Yuexiu District, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province 510000 Applicant after: GUANGDONG POWER GRID Co. Applicant after: HEYUAN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU, GUANGDONG POWER GRID Co.,Ltd. Address before: No.757 Dongfeng East Road, Yuexiu District, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province 510000 Applicant before: GUANGDONG POWER GRID Co. Applicant before: HEYUAN POWER SUPPLY BUREAU, GUANGDONG POWER GRID Co.,Ltd. Applicant before: GUANGDONG University OF TECHNOLOGY |
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