CN108595767A - A kind of determination method of marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability - Google Patents
A kind of determination method of marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of determination method of marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability, builds the VIV fatigue damage limit state equations of logarithmic form；Determining influences the stochastic variable of VIV fatigue damages；The response surface of the fatigue damage of each stochastic variable is built, partial derivative of the fatigue damage to each stochastic variable is calculated；Using first-order second moment method, the expression formula of standpipe VIV fatigue reliability indexes is obtained；The target reliabilities index of standpipe entire life is obtained from year failure probability；Derive the safety coefficient formula of VIV fatigues；Give calculation process and example.The present invention can be used to instruct fatigue design and the assessment of marine riser VIV.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to marine engineering design fields, are related to VIV fatigue designs and the assessment of marine riser, especially relate to
And a kind of vortex-induced vibration of marine riser (Vortex Induced Vibration hereinafter referred to as VIV) fatigue peace based on reliability
The determination method of overall coefficient.
Background technology
The VIV fatigue lives of standpipe due to below, it is difficult to accurate evaluation.First, vortex-induced vibration during one's term of military service
Response mainly by under complicated marine environment floating motion and viscous fluid load determined that load is difficult to accurate forecast；
Second is that the computation model of fatigue life, including S-N curves and the linear integrating methods of Miner, there is also certain not to know for itself
Property.In existing specification, to ensure the projected life of standpipe, for floating body-riser systems of all kinds of traditional forms, for
Basic, normal, high three safe classes, Uniform provisions be common to all standpipes and position relatively conservative fatigue safety coefficient 3,
6、10。
Invention content
In order to overcome the shortcomings of prior art can not accurate evaluation marine riser VIV fatigue strength, the present invention provides
A kind of determination method of marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability can effectively determine marine riser VIV fatigues
Safety coefficient, instruct the design of marine riser VIV fatigues, reduce the possibility of marine riser VIV fatigue ruptures.
The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve the technical problems is：
A kind of determination method of marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability, includes the following steps：
Step S1 builds the VIV fatigue limit state equations of logarithmic form；
Step S2 determines the stochastic variable for influencing VIV fatigue damages；
Step S3 builds the response surface of the fatigue damage of each stochastic variable, calculates fatigue damage to the inclined of each stochastic variable
Derivative；
Step S4 obtains the expression formula of reliability index using first-order second moment method；
Step S5 obtains the target reliabilities index of entire life from year failure probability；
Step S6 derives the fatigue safety coefficient formula of VIV fatigues.
Further, in the step S1, the limit state equation of the logarithmic form of VIV Fatigue Reliabilities is
Z=ln Δ-ln Xmod-ln Ts-ln DV,a(A,X)
In formula, Z is the limit state equation of the logarithmic form of VIV Fatigue Reliabilities；TsFor projected life (year), it is to determine
Value；Impairment value when Δ is fatigue failure in Miner criterion, XmodFor model uncertain variables, Δ, XmodIt has been generally acknowledged that obeying logarithm
Normal distribution, stochastic behaviour can refer to related data determination；Dv,a(A,Xi) damaged for the year random fatigue of VIV fatigues, XiFor shadow
The main random variable of VIV damages is rung, A is the random parameter of S-N curves used.
Further, in the step S3, determining ln D are acquired using Taylor series expansion methodV,aStandard deviation：
In formula, DV,aFor the year fatigue damage of VIV fatigues, standard deviation is acquired with Taylor series expansion method.
Further, in the step S4, using first-order second moment method, the expression formula β for obtaining reliability index is
In formula, β is the reliability index of standpipe VIV fatigues；DV,aIt is counted with design S-N curves
VIV fatigue damages, λAForAnd ApIt is the A designed in S-N curves；For Δ, XmodMean value；
For the variance of ln Δs, other variance symbol meanings in formula are similar.
In the step S5, standpipe is obtained in projected life T from year failure probabilitysInterior VIV fatigues target reliability index β0
It is equal to：
In formula, β0For projected life TsThe target reliability index of interior VIV fatigues；To make pfa,nIt is general equal to targeted failure
The stress parameters of ratepfa,nFor 1 year failure probability.
In the step S6, the fatigue safety coefficient γ of VIV fatiguesVIVFor
In formula, γVIVFor the fatigue safety coefficient of VIV fatigues.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are mainly manifested in：The safety coefficient of marine riser VIV fatigues can be effectively determined, is instructed
The design of marine riser VIV fatigues reduces the possibility of marine riser VIV fatigue ruptures.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart of the determination method of the marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability.
Specific implementation mode
The invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Referring to Fig.1, a kind of determination method of marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability, including following step
Suddenly：
Step S1 builds the VIV fatigue limit state equations of logarithmic form；
Step S2 determines the stochastic variable for influencing VIV fatigue damages；
Step S3 builds the response surface of the fatigue damage of each stochastic variable, calculates fatigue damage to the inclined of each stochastic variable
Derivative；
Step S4 obtains the expression formula of reliability index using first-order second moment method；
Step S5 obtains the target reliabilities index of entire life from year failure probability；
Step S6 derives the fatigue safety coefficient formula of VIV fatigues.
Further, in the step S1, the limit state equation of the logarithmic form of VIV Fatigue Reliabilities is
Z=ln Δ-ln Xmod-ln Ts-ln DV,a(A,X)
In formula, Z is the limit state equation of the logarithmic form of VIV Fatigue Reliabilities；TsFor projected life (year), it is to determine
Value；Impairment value when Δ is fatigue failure in Miner criterion, XmodFor model uncertain variables, Δ, XmodIt has been generally acknowledged that obeying logarithm
Normal distribution, stochastic behaviour can refer to related data determination；Dv,a(A,Xi) damaged for the year random fatigue of VIV fatigues, XiFor shadow
The main random variable of VIV damages is rung, A is the random parameter of S-N curves used.
Further, in the step S3, determining ln D are acquired using Taylor series expansion methodV,aStandard deviation：
In formula, DV,aFor the year fatigue damage of VIV fatigues, standard deviation is acquired with Taylor series expansion method.
Further, in the step S4, using first-order second moment method, the expression formula β for obtaining reliability index is
In formula, β is the reliability index of standpipe VIV fatigues；DV,aIt is counted with design S-N curves
VIV fatigue damages, λAForAnd ApIt is the A designed in S-N curves；For Δ, XmodMean value；
For the variance of ln Δs, other variance symbol meanings are similar.
In the step S5, standpipe is obtained in projected life T from year failure probabilitysInterior VIV fatigues target reliability index β0
It is equal to：
In formula, β0For projected life TsThe target reliability index of interior VIV fatigues；To make pfa,nIt is general equal to targeted failure
The stress parameters of ratepfa,nFor 1 year failure probability.
In the step S6, the fatigue safety coefficient γ of VIV fatiguesVIVFor
In formula, γVIVFor the fatigue safety coefficient of VIV fatigues.
In the present invention, the most commonly used is maximum allowable progressive damage weighing apparatus is accurate in structural fatigue design, it require structure to
Progressive damage degree during determining projected life is no more than defined permissible value, i.e.,
D≤ΔoOr
In formula, D is projected life TsThe progressive damage degree of period structure；Δ0For corresponding permissible value.DefinitionFor fatigue safety
Coefficient.Past γ is all based on greatly experience, random uncertain in the quasi- consideration VIV fatigue damages of the present invention, provides based on reliability
Theoretical safety coefficient γ determines method.
Since VIV Fatigue Damage Calculation the time it takes is relatively short, can directly use Taylor series expansion method and
Lognormal format carries out fail-safe analysis to it.Calculating the limit state equation of VIV Fatigue Reliabilities can be write as
Z=ln Δ-ln Xmod-ln Ts-ln DV,a(A,X) (2)
Wherein, TsFor projected life (year), it is to determine value；Impairment value when Δ is fatigue failure in Miner criterion, XmodFor
Model uncertain variables, Δ, XmodIt has been generally acknowledged that obeying logarithm normal distribution, stochastic behaviour can refer to related data determination；Dv,a
(A,Xi) damaged for the year random fatigue of VIV fatigues, XiTo influence the main random variable of VIV damages, A is S-N curves used
Random parameter.
Sensibility calculating is carried out in specified parameter area to these stochastic variables, obtained fatigue damage is denoted as ln Dv,a
(Xi)；Using these data, build according to XiThe response surface of fatigue damage；Calculate partial derivative of the fatigue damage to each stochastic variableThe usually slope term of response surface equation acquires ln D by formula (3)V,aStandard deviation
The stochastic variable of factor (2) generally all meets logarithm normal distribution, and reliability index is obtained by first-order second moment method
Expression formula β.Expansion is such as formula (4).
In formula,For the mean value of corresponding stochastic variable, σlnΔ、For their mark
It is accurate poor.Cause
In formula, DV,aIt is the VIV fatigue damages being calculated with design S-N curves；ApIt is design S-N curves
In used A.Obtain the expression formula β of reliability index：
In formula,For the mean value of corresponding stochastic variable, σlnΔ、For their mark
It is accurate poor.
The determination of target reliability：If the failure probability of standpipe n is pf,n, the failure probability of n-1 is pf,n-1, that
1 year failure probability pfa,nIt is equal to pf,n-pf,n-1.It is pointed out in DNV-RP-F204, standpipe is in projected life one's last year
Or the failure probability of round of visits one's last year (being exactly the 5th year if round of visits is 5 years) should be less than not TongAn
Targeted failure probability under congruent grade, i.e., 10-3, 10-4, 10-5。
If the failure probability of the one's last year in selection check period failure probability in order to control, and round of visits is n,
Then 1 year failure probability is just
pfa,n=pf,n-pf,n-1=[1- Φ (βn)]-[1-Φ(βn-1)]=Φ (βn-1)-Φ(βn) (7)
To VIV fatigues, obtained by formula (7) and formula (4)
It adjusts in above formulaSize, make pfa,nEqual to targeted failure probability, it is denoted asStandpipe is obtained by formula (4) setting
Count service life TsInterior VIV fatigues target reliability index β0：
The safety coefficient of VIV fatigues：According to the viewpoint of reliability, the reliability index β of VIV fatigue damages should be required to be more than
Equal to a certain defined desired value β0, i.e.,
β≥β0 (10)
It brings formula (6) into (10), obtains
It compares (1), the safety coefficient for obtaining VIV fatigues is
The present invention has derived the formula of the standpipe VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability, gives from year failure probability
The method for obtaining entire life reliability index.By taking the petroleum pipeline of depth of water 500m as an example, round of visits difference is calculated with this method
Fatigue safety coefficient when being 5 years and 6 years.
It is the floating platform for 500 meters of certain depth of water, the SCR (steel catenary riser) of overall length 940m, using this hair below
Bright progress standpipe contacts to earth, and nearby certain safety coefficient put calculates at place.The VIV fatigues of standpipe are calculated using 7 softwares of SHERE,
Seabed rigidity is simulated using linear model.Specific calculating process is as follows：
1) determining influences the stochastic variable of fatigue damage, is generally regarded as incoherent；Establish these stochastic variables
The value of probabilistic model (average value and standard deviation), common engineering design basis file Plays design parameter can be used as sensibility
The value of the mean value of parameter in research, standard deviation also should be based on the data of design basis, also can be by the recommendation of DNV-RP-F204
Value；It determines the parameter area that sensibility calculates, generally should include positive and negative two standard deviations of average value, i.e.,Example
These values be shown in Table 1.Because of the statistics of strouhal number, bandwidth parameter, damped coefficient correction factor and lift coefficient correction factor
The few documents of parameter are mentioned, it is assumed that its coefficient of variation takes 0.1,0.15 and 0.2, as space is limited, the coefficient of variation is only listed in table 1
Take 0.1 statistical parameter.
Table 1
2) sensibility calculating is carried out in specified parameter area to these stochastic variables, obtained fatigue damage is denoted as ln Dv,a
(Xi)；Using these data, X is builtiThe response surface of fatigue damage；Calculate partial derivative of the fatigue damage to each stochastic variableThe usually slope term of response surface equation, is shown in Table 1；Ln D are acquired by the formula (3) of specificationV,aStandard deviationIt is 1.061.
Table 2 is γVIVThe relevant parameter of calculating；
Table 2
(3) it is determined with the formula of specification (8)Value, then calculate target reliability with the formula (9) of specification
β0, table 2 gives service life TsIt takes 20 years, round of visits is 5 years, and it is 10 to require the 5th year probability of fatigue failure-3Correlometer
Calculate parameter.When table 3 is that four parameter variation coefficients take 0.1 and 0.2 respectively, 20 year design cycle, round of visits is 5 years, different
Target reliability index β under safe class0.The target reliability index β for VIV fatigues that table 3 is round of visits when being 5 years0。
Table 3
(4) fatigue safety coefficient of VIV is calculated by the formula of specification (12).Table 4 and table 5 are that four parameters of table 1 become
When different coefficient takes 0.1,0.15 and 0.2 respectively, 20 year design cycle, round of visits is respectively 5 years and 6 years, different safety class
Under VIV fatigue safety coefficients.
Table 4
Table 5
By table 4, table 5 the result shows that：
Institute's extracting method of the present invention can consider reliability, round of visits, the influence of design cycle, than traditional constant fatigue
Safety coefficient is more accurate.From the point of view of the result of calculating, with the increase of the coefficient of variation of four parameters, calculated with context of methods
The fatigue safety coefficient that arrives it is constant relative to DNV-RP-F204 3,6,10, differ greatly.
The result of calculation for being 5 years relative to round of visits, target reliability index and fatigue when round of visits is 6 years are pacified
Overall coefficient will be big.This is because round of visits is longer, it is necessary to ensure that structure has enough peaces with the safety coefficient of bigger
Quan Xing.
The present invention can be used to fatigue design and the assessment of marine riser, be China Classification Society《Standpipe design guidelines》In
Standpipe VIV fatigue analysis provides reference frame.The marine riser of according to said method determining safety coefficient design will more
It is safe, reasonable and economical.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of determination method of marine riser VIV fatigue safety coefficients based on reliability, which is characterized in that the determination side
Method includes the following steps：
Step S1 builds the VIV fatigue limit state equations of logarithmic form；
Step S2 determines the stochastic variable for influencing VIV fatigue damages；
Step S3 builds the response surface of the fatigue damage of each stochastic variable, calculates partial derivative of the fatigue damage to each stochastic variable；
Step S4 obtains the expression formula of reliability index using first-order second moment method；
Step S5 obtains the target reliabilities index of entire life from year failure probability；
Step S6 derives the fatigue safety coefficient formula of VIV fatigues.
2. determining method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step S1, the logarithm of VIV Fatigue Reliabilities
The limit state equation of form is
Z=ln Δs-lnXmod-lnTs-lnDV,a(A,X)
In formula, Z is the limit state equation of the logarithmic form of VIV Fatigue Reliabilities；TsFor projected life, it is to determine value；Δ is
Impairment value, X when fatigue failure in Miner criterionmodFor model uncertain variables, Δ, XmodIt has been generally acknowledged that obeying lognormal point
Cloth, stochastic behaviour can refer to related data determination；Dv,a(A,Xi) damaged for the year random fatigue of VIV fatigues, XiTo influence VIV damages
The main random variable of wound, A are the random parameters of S-N curves used.
3. determining method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that in the step S3, using Taylor series expansion method
Acquire ln DV,aStandard deviation：
In formula, DV,aFor the year fatigue damage of VIV fatigues, standard deviation is acquired with Taylor series expansion method.
4. determining method according to claim 2 or 3, which is characterized in that in the step S4, using first-order reliability method
Method obtains the expression formula β of reliability index：
In formula, β is the reliability index of standpipe VIV fatigues；It is with the counted VIV of design S-N curves
Year fatigue damage, λAForAnd ApIt is the A designed in S-N curves；For Δ, XmodMean value；For ln
The variance of Δ, other variance symbol meanings are similar in formula.
5. determining method according to claim 2 or 3, which is characterized in that in the step S5, obtained from year failure probability
Standpipe is in projected life TsInterior VIV fatigues target reliability index β0It is equal to：
In formula, β0For projected life TsThe target reliability index of interior VIV fatigues；To make pfa,nEqual to targeted failure probability
Stress parameterspfa,nFor 1 year failure probability.
6. determining method according to claim 2 or 3, which is characterized in that in the step S6, the fatigue peace of VIV fatigues
Overall coefficient γVIVFor
In formula, γVIVFor the fatigue safety coefficient of VIV fatigues.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111914355A (en) * | 2020-07-23 | 2020-11-10 | 中车唐山机车车辆有限公司 | Method and device for determining stress factor of welding structure of railway vehicle and terminal equipment |
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| CHEZHIAN，MUTHU ET AL.: "Application of DNV-RP-F204 for determining riser VIV safety", 《24TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON OFFSHORE MECHANICS AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING》 * |
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Cited By (1)
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| CN111914355A (en) * | 2020-07-23 | 2020-11-10 | 中车唐山机车车辆有限公司 | Method and device for determining stress factor of welding structure of railway vehicle and terminal equipment |
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