CN108510117A - Drug abuse propagation prediction method, device and electronic equipment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of drug abuse propagation prediction method, device and electronic equipments, it is related to technical field of data processing, this method includes the value that gets parms, the parameter value includes the conversion parameter of the different type crowd divided in advance, the number initial value of the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict and different type crowd；The conversion parameter includes the conversion rate or transition probability between different type crowd；The number of the different type crowd in preset time is calculated based on the drug abuse propagation model pre-established according to above-mentioned parameter value；Wherein different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, addicts, isolated crowd and drug users.The embodiment of the present invention realizes the reasonable prediction to drug abuse propagation condition, and then provides data reference and decision-making foundation for counterdrug operation, and searching is contributed to be effectively blocked strategy, reasonable employment resource and adjustable strategies, more effectively carries out social action intervention action.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of data processing, more particularly, to a kind of drug abuse propagation prediction method, device and electronics
Equipment.
Background technology
Currently, the drug issue being on the rise has become global disaster.It is strong that drugs not only can seriously damage human body
Health, but also abuse individual is wrecked and destroyed from soul and psychosoma.On the one hand can cause to abuse individual economy collapse, family's solution
Body；On the other hand it can also inevitably derive the major crimes such as theft, robbery, violence, homicide, be brought not to public society
Appreciable calamitous harm.
In the prior art, the communication network model of certain infectious disease in this context is established, also mostly to take drugs as background
It is the network model that AIDS is propagated by drug abusing method, the starting point is in terms of infectious disease, and there is no deep in the propagation of drug abuse
Enter research.
In order to the propagation condition that reasonable prediction is taken drugs, how guidance, which is found, is effectively blocked strategy, reasonable employment money
Source and adjustable strategies more effectively carry out social action intervention action, need deeply to the research propagated of taking drugs, however at present also
Without drug abuse propagation forecast scheme well.
Invention content
In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of drug abuse propagation prediction method, device and electronic equipments, with reality
Now to the reasonable prediction of drug abuse propagation condition, and then data reference and decision-making foundation are provided for counterdrug operation, helping to find has
The blocking strategy of effect, reasonable employment resource and adjustable strategies more effectively carry out social action intervention action.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of drug abuse propagation prediction methods, including：
Get parms value, and the parameter value includes the conversion parameter of the different type crowd divided in advance, single drug addict
The number initial value of corresponding relatives and friends' number and different type crowd；The conversion parameter includes between different type crowd
Conversion rate or transition probability；
The different type people in preset time is calculated based on the drug abuse propagation model pre-established according to the parameter value
The number of group；The different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, addicts, isolated crowd and drug users.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the first possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein institute
It states preset time and is divided into multiple stages, the process of establishing of the drug abuse propagation model includes：
According to addicts the number of current generation, kith and kin crowd the current generation number and drug users current
The number in stage and the conversion parameter, number of the calculating addicts in next stage；
According to isolated crowd in the number of current generation, the number of the current generation of addicts and the conversion parameter,
Number of the calculating isolated crowd in next stage；
According to drug users in the number of current generation, the number of the current generation of isolated crowd and the conversion parameter,
Number of the calculating drug users in next stage；
According to the addicts in the number of next stage, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict, parent is calculated
Number of the friend crowd in next stage.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides second of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein every
A type crowd divides multiple groups according to gender and age, and the conversion parameter further includes the death rate；The parameter value
It further include the corresponding initial accounting of difference group in each type crowd.
Second of possible embodiment with reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the third of first aspect
Possible embodiment, wherein the preset time is divided into multiple stages, and the process of establishing of the drug abuse propagation model includes：
According to each group in addicts the number of current generation, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict,
Number, the death rate and conversion parameter of the corresponding group in the current generation in drug users determine that each group exists in addicts
The number of next stage；According to each group in addicts in the number of next stage, determine the addicts next
The number in stage；
According to corresponding group in isolated crowd in the number of current generation, addicts corresponding group in the current generation
Number, the death rate and conversion parameter determine that each group is in the number of next stage in isolated crowd；According to each in isolated crowd
A group in the number of next stage, determine the isolated crowd next level segment number；
According to corresponding group in drug users in the number of current generation, isolated crowd corresponding group in the current generation
Number, the death rate and conversion parameter determine that each group is in the number of next stage in drug users；According to each in drug users
A group in the number of next stage, determine the drug users next level segment number.
Second of possible embodiment with reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 4th kind of first aspect
Possible embodiment, wherein the transition probability includes that the kith and kin in the drug addict influence kith and kin crowd in addicts are good
Friend is converted to the probability α of drug addict；The conversion rate, which includes the drug abstainer in drug users, to become the rate θ of drug addict, inhales
Drug addict in malicious crowd becomes the rate β of the isolator in isolated crowd and isolator becomes the rate λ of drug abstainer；It is described
The death rate includes death rate x, the death rate z of the death rate y and drug abstainer of isolator monthly monthly of drug addict monthly.
The 4th kind of possible embodiment with reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 5th kind of first aspect
Possible embodiment, wherein the drug abuse propagation model is：
qj(t)=βj×dj(t-1)+(1-λj-yj)×qj(t-1)；
aj(t)=λj×qj(t-1)+(1-θj-zj)×aj(t-1)；
Wherein, k is constant, indicates the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict；αijIndicate i-th group of suction in addicts
Malicious person influences the probability that jth group relatives and friends in kith and kin crowd are converted into drug addict；M indicates to be divided according to gender and age multiple
The other quantity of group；dj(t) indicate that jth group drug addict is in the number in t stages in addicts；dj(t-1) it indicates in addicts
Number of the jth group drug addict in the t-1 stages；qj(t) indicate that jth group isolator is in the number in t stages in isolated crowd；qj
(t-1) indicate that jth group isolator is in the number in t-1 stages in isolated crowd；aj(t) indicate that jth group is quit drug abuse in drug users
Number of the person in the t stages；aj(t-1) indicate that jth group drug abstainer is in the number in t-1 stages in drug users；θjIndicate drug rehabilitation
Jth group drug abstainer in crowd becomes the rate of drug addict；aj(t-1) indicate that jth group drug abstainer is in t-1 ranks in drug users
The number of section；βjJth group drug addict becomes the rate of isolator in expression addicts；λjIndicate that jth group is isolated in isolated crowd
Person becomes the rate of drug abstainer；xjIndicate the death rate of jth group drug addict monthly in addicts；yjIndicate jth in isolated crowd
The death rate of group isolator monthly；zjIndicate the death rate of jth group drug abstainer monthly in drug users；D (t) indicates addicts
In the number in t stages；Number of Q (t) the expression isolated crowds in the t stages；People of A (t) the expression drug users in the t stages
Number.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 6th kind of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein also
Including：
According to the sum of the different type crowd in the preset time, the variation diagram of the sum of different type crowd is drawn
Picture, and carry out output displaying.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention also provide a kind of drug abuse propagation forecast device, including：
Acquisition module, for the value that gets parms, the parameter value includes the conversion ginseng of the different type crowd divided in advance
The number initial value of number, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict and different type crowd；The conversion parameter includes not
Conversion rate between same type crowd or transition probability；
Computing module, for being calculated in preset time based on the drug abuse propagation model pre-established according to the parameter value
Different type crowd number；The different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, addicts, isolated crowd and drug rehabilitation people
Group.
The third aspect, the embodiment of the present invention also provide a kind of electronic equipment, including memory, processor, the memory
On be stored with the computer program that can be run on the processor, the processor is realized when executing the computer program
State the method described in first aspect and its any possible embodiment.
Fourth aspect, the embodiment of the present invention also provide a kind of meter for the non-volatile program code that can perform with processor
Calculation machine readable medium, said program code make the processor execute the first aspect and its any possible embodiment
The method.
The embodiment of the present invention brings following advantageous effect：
In embodiments of the present invention, get parms value first, which includes the different type crowd divided in advance
The number initial value of conversion parameter, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict and different type crowd；The conversion parameter packet
Include the conversion rate or transition probability between different type crowd；Then according to above-mentioned parameter value, based on the suction pre-established
Malicious propagation model calculates the number of the different type crowd in preset time；Wherein different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, inhales
Malicious crowd, isolated crowd and drug users.In this way, after according to the actual conditions in region to be predicted, number initial value is set, in conjunction with
Conversion parameter and the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict, so that it may calculate each type human to be based on drug abuse propagation model
The number of group, to realize to the reasonable prediction of drug abuse propagation condition, and then for counterdrug operation provide data reference and decision according to
According to, contribute to find be effectively blocked strategy, reasonable employment resource and adjustable strategies, more effectively carry out social action intervention row
It is dynamic.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will illustrate in the following description, also, partly become from specification
It obtains it is clear that understand through the implementation of the invention.The purpose of the present invention and other advantages are in specification, claims
And specifically noted structure is realized and is obtained in attached drawing.
To enable the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention to be clearer and more comprehensible, preferred embodiment cited below particularly, and coordinate
Appended attached drawing, is described in detail below.
Description of the drawings
It, below will be to specific in order to illustrate more clearly of the specific embodiment of the invention or technical solution in the prior art
Embodiment or attached drawing needed to be used in the description of the prior art are briefly described, it should be apparent that, in being described below
Attached drawing is some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, before not making the creative labor
It puts, other drawings may also be obtained based on these drawings.
Transition diagrams of the Fig. 1 between different type crowd provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the flow diagram of drug abuse propagation prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is a kind of modified-image of the sum of different type crowd provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is another modified-image of the sum of different type crowd provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 5 is the structural schematic diagram of drug abuse propagation forecast device provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 6 is the structural schematic diagram of electronic equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with attached drawing to the present invention
Technical solution be clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiments are some of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than
Whole embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are not making creative work premise
Lower obtained every other embodiment, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Currently in order to capableing of the propagation condition of reasonable prediction drug abuse, how guidance, which is found, is effectively blocked strategy, rationally makes
With resource and adjustable strategies, more effectively carry out social action intervention action, needs to go deep into the research propagated of taking drugs, however mesh
Preceding good drug abuse propagation forecast scheme not yet.Based on this, a kind of drug abuse propagation prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention,
Device and electronic equipment, after number initial value being arranged according to the actual conditions in region to be predicted, in conjunction with conversion parameter and list
The corresponding relatives and friends' number of a drug addict, so that it may to calculate the number of each type crowd based on drug abuse propagation model, from
And realize the reasonable prediction to drug abuse propagation condition, and then data reference and decision-making foundation are provided for counterdrug operation, help to seek
It looks for and is effectively blocked strategy, reasonable employment resource and adjustable strategies more effectively carry out social action intervention action.
For ease of understanding the present embodiment, first to a kind of drug abuse propagation forecast side disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention
Method describes in detail.
Embodiment one：
The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention is described for complete and accurate, is standardized first to drug abuse propagation forecast object
Description：
Crowd in region to be predicted is divided into different types, including addicts D, kith and kin crowd F, isolated crowd
Q and drug users A.In order to obtain in region to be predicted, the number of the different type crowd in preset time can will be preset
Time is divided into multiple stages, such as needs the number for predicting each type crowd in 12 months, can be with one month for a rank
Duan Jinhang is calculated.
As shown in Figure 1, in a possible embodiment, by taking one month is a stage as an example, kith and kin crowd F is by drug abuse people
The influence of group D is converted to drug addict with the probability of monthly α × F (t), and wherein F (t) indicates kith and kin crowd at t-th month (from opening
Begin prediction this month from be 1st month) number；α is that the kith and kin that the drug addict in addicts D influences in kith and kin crowd F are good
Friend is converted to the probability of drug addict；Public security department with the rate of monthly β × D (t) by the drug addict in addicts F be converted into every
From the isolator in crowd Q, D (t) indicates numbers of the addicts D at t-th month, and β, which is the drug addict in addicts D, to be become
The rate of isolator in isolated crowd Q；The isolator in isolated crowd Q is put with the rate of monthly λ × Q (t) in public security department
Society is returned to become the drug abstainer in drug users A, Q (t) indicates number of the isolated crowd at t-th month, and λ, which is isolator, to be become guarding against
The rate of malicious person；Drug abstainer in drug users A influenced to return addicts D with the rate of speed θ × A (t) by environment and
Become drug addict, A (t) indicates the t-th month number of drug users A, and θ, which is the drug abstainer in drug users A, becomes drug addict
Rate；Kith and kin crowd F is directly determined by addicts D, is changed with the variation of addicts D, number meets condition F (t)
=k × D (t).
Drug abuse propagation prediction method is illustrated with the above-mentioned example that is described as below.
Fig. 2 shows the flow diagrams of drug abuse propagation prediction method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.As shown in Fig. 2, should
Drug abuse propagation prediction method includes：
Step S101, get parms value, which includes the conversion parameter of the different type crowd divided in advance, individually
The number initial value of the corresponding relatives and friends' number of drug addict and different type crowd；The conversion parameter includes different type crowd
Between conversion rate or transition probability.
Step S102 is calculated in preset time not according to above-mentioned parameter value based on the drug abuse propagation model pre-established
The number of same type crowd；Above-mentioned different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, addicts, isolated crowd and drug users.
Specifically, the number initial value of the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict and different type crowd are pre- by waiting for
Survey the actual conditions setting in region.In a possible embodiment, the conversion rate between above-mentioned different type crowd includes guarding against
Drug abstainer in malicious crowd, which becomes the drug addict in the rate θ of drug addict, addicts, becomes isolator's in isolated crowd
Rate β and isolator become the rate λ of drug abstainer；Above-mentioned transition probability, which includes the drug addict in addicts, influences kith and kin people
Relatives and friends in group are converted to the probability α of drug addict.Wherein the value of θ, β, λ and α can be set according to priori.
Specifically, above-mentioned preset time can be divided into multiple stages.If preset time is 20 years, then it can be divided into 240
Stage is calculated, and each stage is one month.Assuming that the current generation is in t-1 months, next stage is t-th month.
In a possible embodiment, in above-mentioned steps S102, the first of drug abuse propagation model establishes process and includes：
(a1) existed in the number and drug users in the current generation of number, kith and kin crowd of current generation according to addicts
The number and conversion parameter of current generation, number of the calculating addicts in next stage.
Specifically, influencing parent according to drug addicts of the addicts D in number D (t-1), the addicts D of current generation
Relatives and friends in friend crowd D are converted to number F (t-1), the drug rehabilitation people of the probability α of drug addict, kith and kin crowd F in the current generation
Drug abstainer in group A becomes the rate θ of drug addict, drug users A in number A (t-1), the addicts D of current generation
Drug addict becomes the rate β of the isolator in isolated crowd Q, number Ds (t) of the calculating addicts D in next stage.
(a2) joined in the number of current generation and above-mentioned conversion in the number of current generation, addicts according to isolated crowd
Number, number of the calculating isolated crowd in next stage.
Specifically, according to isolated crowd Q the current generation number Q (t-1), addicts D the current generation number D
(t-1), the rate β and the isolator in isolated crowd Q that the drug addict in addicts D becomes the isolator in isolated crowd Q
Become the rate λ of drug abstainer, number Qs (t) of the calculating isolated crowd Q in next stage.
(a3) number and conversion parameter in the current generation of number, isolated crowd according to drug users in the current generation,
Number of the calculating drug users in next stage.
Specifically, according to drug users A the current generation number A (t-1), isolated crowd Q the current generation number Q
(t-1), the isolator in isolated crowd Q, which becomes the drug abstainer in the rate λ of drug abstainer, drug users A, becomes the speed of drug addict
The number A (t) of rate θ, calculating drug users A in next stage.
(a4) parent is calculated in the number of next stage, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict according to addicts
Number of the friend crowd in next stage.
Specifically, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict is constant.
In a possible embodiment, the first the drug abuse propagation model established according to step (a1) to (a4) is as follows：
D (t)=α × F (t-1)+θ × A (t-1)+(1- β) × D (t-1)
Q (t)=β × D (t-1)+(1- λ) × Q (t-1)
A (t)=λ × Q (t-1)+(1- θ) × A (t-1)
F (t)=k × D (t)
Further, t can be determined according to preset duration, by the number initial value of different type crowd, including drug abuse people
The group number initial value D (1) of D, the initial value F (1) of kith and kin crowd F, the initial value Q (1) of isolated crowd Q and drug users A
The value of initial value A (1), θ, β, λ, α and t are substituting in the first drug abuse propagation model, you can calculate different type crowd's
Number.
In embodiments of the present invention, after number initial value being set according to the actual conditions in region to be predicted, join in conjunction with conversion
Number and the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict, so that it may to calculate the people of each type crowd based on drug abuse propagation model
Number to realize the reasonable prediction to drug abuse propagation condition, and then provides data reference and decision-making foundation for counterdrug operation, helps
Strategy, reasonable employment resource and adjustable strategies are effectively blocked in searching, more effectively carry out social action intervention action.
Further, in a possible embodiment, the above method further includes：
Step S103 draws the total of different type crowd according to the sum of the different type crowd in above-mentioned preset time
Several modified-images, and carry out output displaying.
The case where application the first drug abuse propagation model calculating, is illustrated with an example：
If D (1)=10000, Q (1)=300, A (1)=200, F (1)=200000, and k=20 is set, α=0.001, θ=
0.01, β=0.1, λ=0.02 then can be, but not limited to carry out model foundation using MATLAB, wherein using the calculating of MATLAB
Program is as follows：
Wherein, if the value range of t is the positive integer of 2≤t≤240.The modified-image finally exported is as shown in figure 3, cross
Coordinate is parameter t, and ordinate is number, wherein the number of kith and kin crowd is not shown.
In a possible embodiment, it is contemplated that the influence of gender and age to conversion parameter, such as different sexes, year
The probability that the people in age takes drugs, the probability relapsed have a certain difference.Each type crowd divides multiple according to gender and age
Group, above-mentioned conversion parameter further include the death rate；Above-mentioned parameter value further include in each type crowd different groups it is corresponding just
Beginning accounting.Initial accounting is for determining the corresponding initial number of difference group in each type crowd.
Wherein, the above-mentioned death rate includes that drug addict death rate x monthly, isolator death rate y monthly and drug abstainer are every
The death rate z of the moon.
Such as：Consider that two kinds of genders (men and women), n age bracket integrate each type crowd being divided into m=2 × n
Group.In addition to this, death is easier compared with common people due to drug addict, it is also contemplated that the different crowd death rate changed number
It influences, so that prediction is more accurate.
Therefore, after carrying out group division to each type crowd, above-mentioned θ is embodied in the jth group in drug users
Drug abstainer becomes the rate θ of drug addictj, above-mentioned β is embodied in jth group drug addict in addicts becomes the rate of isolator
βjAnd above-mentioned λ is embodied in jth group isolator in isolated crowd becomes the rate λ of drug abstainerj；Above-mentioned α is embodied in suction
I-th group of drug addict influences the probability α that jth group relatives and friends in kith and kin crowd are converted into drug addict in malicious crowdij.Above-mentioned x is specific
Show as the death rate x of jth group drug addict monthly in addictsj；It is every that y is embodied in jth group isolator in isolated crowd
The death rate y of the moonj；Z is embodied in the death rate z of jth group drug abstainer monthly in drug usersj。
In a possible embodiment, still with the current generation be the t-1 stages, next stage be the t stages for, said
It is bright.In above-mentioned steps S102, establish process includes second of drug abuse propagation model：
(b1) number according to each group in addicts in the current generation, the corresponding relatives and friends people of single drug addict
Corresponding number, the death rate and conversion parameter of the group in the current generation, determines each group in addicts in number, drug users
In the number of next stage；According to each group in addicts in the number of next stage, determine addicts in lower single order
The number of section.
Specifically, first according to each group of addicts D (be m group in D) the current generation number,
Each group of other drug addict influences jth group relatives and friends in kith and kin crowd F and is converted into the general of drug addict respectively in addicts D
Rate, the corresponding relatives and friends' number k of single drug addict, calculating each group of other drug addict in addicts D influences kith and kin people
Jth group relatives and friends are converted into the number of drug addict in group, can be expressed as
Then according to jth group in drug users A the current generation number aj(t-1), the jth group in drug users A is guarded against
Malicious person becomes the rate θ of drug addictj, the death rate x of jth group drug addict monthly in addicts Dj, jth group is inhaled in addicts D
Malicious person becomes the rate β of isolatorjAnd the jth group in addicts D is in the number d of current generationj(t-1), addicts is determined
Number d of the jth group in next stage in Dj(t)。
Each group is calculated separately out in addicts in the number of next stage according to method as above.Finally, according to suction
Each group determines that number of the addicts in next stage calculates addicts D's in the number of next stage in malicious crowd
The number D (t) of next stage.
(b2) according to the other current rank of respective sets in the number of the other current generation of respective sets in isolated crowd, addicts
Number, the death rate and the conversion parameter of section, determine the number that other next stage is each organized in isolated crowd；According to isolated crowd
In each group of other next stage number, determine isolated crowd next level segment number.
Specifically, according to the jth group in addicts D the current generation number dj(t-1), the jth in isolated crowd Q
Number q of the group in the current generationj(t-1), jth group drug addict becomes the rate β of isolator in addicts Dj, in isolated crowd Q
Jth group isolator becomes the rate λ of drug abstainerjAnd the death rate y of jth group isolator monthly in isolated crowdj, determine isolation people
The number q of the next stage of jth group in group Qj(t)。
Each group is calculated separately out in isolated crowd in the number of next stage according to method as above.Finally, according to every
From each group in crowd in the number of next stage, determine that number of the isolated crowd in next stage calculates isolated crowd Q's
The number Q (t) of next stage.
(b3) according to the other current rank of respective sets in the number of the other current generation of respective sets in drug users, isolated crowd
Number, the death rate and the conversion parameter of section, determine the number that other next stage is each organized in drug users；According to drug users
In each group of other next stage number, determine drug users next level segment number.
Specifically, according to the jth group in isolated crowd Q the current generation number qj(t-1), the jth in drug users A
Number a of the group in the current generationj(t-1), the jth group drug abstainer in drug users A becomes the rate θ of drug addictj, isolated crowd Q
Middle jth group isolator becomes the rate λ of drug abstainerjAnd the death rate z of jth group drug abstainer monthly in drug users Aj, determine drug rehabilitation
The number a of the next stage of jth group in crowd Aj(t)。
Each group is calculated separately out in drug users in the number of next stage according to method as above.Finally, according to ring
Each group determines that number of the drug users in next stage calculates drug users A's in the number of next stage in malicious crowd
The number A (t) of next stage.
In a possible embodiment, second of the drug abuse propagation model established according to step (b1) to (b3) is as follows：
qj(t)=βj×dj(t-1)+(1-λj-yj)×qj(t-1)；
aj(t)=λj×qj(t-1)+(1-θj-zj)×aj(t-1)；
Wherein, m indicates to divide multiple groups of other quantity, 1≤i≤m, 1≤j≤m according to gender and age.
Further, by the number initial value of different type crowd, including the number initial value D (1) of addicts D, parent
The initial value A (1) of the initial value F (1) of friend crowd F, the initial value Q (1) of isolated crowd Q and drug users A determine each type
The corresponding initial number of difference group in crowd.T can be determined according to preset duration, by predetermined θj、βj、λj、αij、zj、
yj、xjAnd the value of t, it is substituting in second of drug abuse propagation model, you can calculate the number of different type crowd.
In embodiments of the present invention, after number initial value being set according to the actual conditions in region to be predicted, considering property
Not, the influence that age and the death rate are converted between each different type crowd, each class is calculated based on drug abuse propagation model
The number of type crowd to realize the further accurate prediction to drug abuse propagation condition, and then preferably carries for counterdrug operation
For data reference and decision-making foundation, searching is contributed to be effectively blocked strategy, reasonable employment resource and adjustable strategies, more effectively
Carry out social action intervention action.
The case where application the first drug abuse propagation model calculating, is illustrated with an example：
Assuming that somewhere consumes illegal drugs situation than more serious, needs to carry out prohibition of drug special campaigns, drug abusing method will be carried out
Tight grab is attacked severely, and model is wanted to set up before implementation to predict the substantially effect of counterdrug operation, and provide suggestion.
If by the man of each type crowd, female, be respectively divided four age brackets (15~30 30~45 45~60 60~
75) it, integrates and each type crowd is divided into 8 groups, i.e.,：45~60 man 60 of male 15~30 man, 30~45 man~
75 female, 15~30 female, 30~45 female, 45~60 female 60~75.
Parameter value in step S101 includes following：
Drug addict influences the value such as table 1 that relatives and friends in kith and kin crowd are converted into the probability α of drug addict in addicts
It is shown：
Table 1
Drug addict in above-mentioned addicts becomes the rate β of isolator, and isolator becomes drug abstainer in isolated crowd
Rate λ；The value that drug abstainer in drug users becomes the rate θ of drug addict is as shown in table 2：
Table 2
Isolator in drug addict in above-mentioned addicts death rate x monthly, isolated crowd death rate y monthly,
The value of the death rate z of drug abstainer monthly in drug users, as shown in table 3：
Table 3
If D (1)=10000, Q (1)=300, A (1)=200, F (1)=200000, and k=20 is set, the value range of t
For the positive integer of 2≤t≤240, i.e. preset duration is 20 years；
The corresponding initial accounting of difference group in each type crowd, as shown in table 4：
Table 4
In a possible embodiment, can be, but not limited to using MATLAB carry out model foundation, using above-mentioned parameter value as
The input of model, wherein the calculation procedure using MATLAB is as follows：
For the modified-image finally exported as shown in figure 4, abscissa is parameter t, ordinate is number.It is tied according to Fig. 4
By：After prohibition of drug special campaigns are implemented, addicts can be greatly reduced in first 20 months, be maintained at 400 people or so, preceding
Isolated crowd can first have larger amplification in 50 months, then reduce, and be ultimately maintained at 2560 people or so, quit drug abuse within first 50 months
Crowd has to be risen by a relatively large margin, finally maintains 3400 people or so, prohibition of drug special campaigns are feasible, can obtain preferable achievement, build
View expands the saturation of narcotic house.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of drug abuse propagation prediction method, can be pre- according to a certain regional realities of the day situation
The following following period of time this area addicts of survey, isolated crowd, the variation of the number, gender and age composition of drug users,
Data reference and decision-making foundation are provided for social counterdrug operation.
Embodiment two：
Corresponding to the method in embodiment one, a kind of drug abuse propagation forecast device is present embodiments provided, it, should referring to Fig. 5
Device includes：
Acquisition module 11, for the value that gets parms, which includes the conversion ginseng of the different type crowd divided in advance
The number initial value of number, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict and different type crowd；The conversion parameter includes difference
Conversion rate between type crowd or transition probability；
Computing module 12, for calculating preset time based on the drug abuse propagation model pre-established according to above-mentioned parameter value
The number of interior different type crowd；Different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, addicts, isolated crowd and drug rehabilitation people
Group.
In embodiments of the present invention, after number initial value being set according to the actual conditions in region to be predicted, join in conjunction with conversion
Number and the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict, so that it may to calculate the people of each type crowd based on drug abuse propagation model
Number to realize the reasonable prediction to drug abuse propagation condition, and then provides data reference and decision-making foundation for counterdrug operation, helps
Strategy, reasonable employment resource and adjustable strategies are effectively blocked in searching, more effectively carry out social action intervention action.
Embodiment three：
Referring to Fig. 6, the embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of electronic equipment 100, including：Processor 40, memory 41, bus
42 and communication interface 43, the processor 40, communication interface 43 and memory 41 connected by bus 42；Processor 40 is for holding
The executable module stored in line storage 41, such as computer program.
Wherein, memory 41 may include high-speed random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory),
May further include nonvolatile memory (non-volatile memory), for example, at least a magnetic disk storage.By at least
One communication interface 43 (can be wired or wireless) realizes the communication between the system network element and at least one other network element
Connection can use internet, wide area network, local network, Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) etc..
Bus 42 can be isa bus, pci bus or eisa bus etc..The bus can be divided into address bus, data
Bus, controlling bus etc..Only indicated with a four-headed arrow for ease of indicating, in Fig. 6, it is not intended that an only bus or
A type of bus.
Wherein, memory 41 is for storing program, and the processor 40 executes the journey after receiving and executing instruction
Sequence, the method performed by device that the stream process that aforementioned any embodiment of the embodiment of the present invention discloses defines can be applied to handle
In device 40, or realized by processor 40.
Processor 40 may be a kind of IC chip, the processing capacity with signal.During realization, above-mentioned side
Each step of method can be completed by the integrated logic circuit of the hardware in processor 40 or the instruction of software form.Above-mentioned
Processor 40 can be general processor, including central processing unit (Central Processing Unit, abbreviation CPU), network
Processor (Network Processor, abbreviation NP) etc.；It can also be digital signal processor (Digital Signal
Processing, abbreviation DSP), application-specific integrated circuit (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, referred to as
ASIC), ready-made programmable gate array (Field-Programmable Gate Array, abbreviation FPGA) or other are programmable
Logical device, discrete gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components.It may be implemented or execute in the embodiment of the present invention
Disclosed each method, step and logic diagram.General processor can be microprocessor or the processor can also be to appoint
What conventional processor etc..The step of method in conjunction with disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention, can be embodied directly in hardware decoding processing
Device executes completion, or in decoding processor hardware and software module combination execute completion.Software module can be located at
Machine memory, flash memory, read-only memory, programmable read only memory or electrically erasable programmable memory, register etc. are originally
In the storage medium of field maturation.The storage medium is located at memory 41, and processor 40 reads the information in memory 41, in conjunction with
Its hardware completes the step of above method.
Drug abuse propagation forecast device and electronic equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention are passed with the drug abuse that above-described embodiment provides
Prediction technique technical characteristic having the same is broadcast, so can also solve identical technical problem, reaches identical technique effect.
What the embodiment of the present invention was provided carries out the computer program product of drug abuse propagation prediction method, including stores place
The computer readable storage medium of the executable non-volatile program code of device is managed, the instruction that said program code includes can be used for
The method described in previous methods embodiment is executed, specific implementation can be found in embodiment of the method, and details are not described herein.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the device of foregoing description
And the specific work process of electronic equipment, it can refer to corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiment, details are not described herein.
Flow chart and block diagram in attached drawing show multiple embodiment method and computer program products according to the present invention
Architecture, function and operation in the cards.In this regard, each box in flowchart or block diagram can represent one
A part for module, section or code, the part of the module, section or code include it is one or more for realizing
The executable instruction of defined logic function.It should also be noted that in some implementations as replacements, the work(marked in box
Can also can in a different order than that indicated in the drawings it occur.For example, two continuous boxes can essentially be substantially parallel
Ground executes, they can also be executed in the opposite order sometimes, this is depended on the functions involved.It is also noted that block diagram
And/or the combination of each box in flow chart and the box in block diagram and or flow chart, work(as defined in executing can be used
Can or the dedicated hardware based system of action realize, or can come using a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions real
It is existing.
In addition, term " first ", " second ", " third " are used for description purposes only, it is not understood to indicate or imply phase
To importance.Unless specifically stated otherwise, the opposite step of the component and step that otherwise illustrate in these embodiments, digital table
It is not limit the scope of the invention up to formula and numerical value.
In several embodiments provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed device and method can pass through it
Its mode is realized.The apparatus embodiments described above are merely exemplary, for example, the division of the unit, only
A kind of division of logic function, formula that in actual implementation, there may be another division manner, in another example, multiple units or component can combine
Or it is desirably integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed.Another point, shown or discussed phase
Coupling, direct-coupling or communication connection between mutually can be by some communication interfaces, the INDIRECT COUPLING of device or unit or
Communication connection can be electrical, machinery or other forms.
The unit illustrated as separating component may or may not be physically separated, aobvious as unit
The component shown may or may not be physical unit, you can be located at a place, or may be distributed over multiple
In network element.Some or all of unit therein can be selected according to the actual needs to realize the mesh of this embodiment scheme
's.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention can be integrated in a processing unit, it can also
It is that each unit physically exists alone, it can also be during two or more units be integrated in one unit.
It, can be with if the function is realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and when sold or used as an independent product
It is stored in the executable non-volatile computer read/write memory medium of a processor.Based on this understanding, of the invention
Technical solution substantially the part of the part that contributes to existing technology or the technical solution can be with software in other words
The form of product embodies, which is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions use so that
One computer equipment (can be personal computer, server or the network equipment etc.) executes each embodiment institute of the present invention
State all or part of step of method.And storage medium above-mentioned includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-
Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic disc or CD etc. are various can be with
Store the medium of program code.
Finally it should be noted that：Embodiment described above, only specific implementation mode of the invention, to illustrate the present invention
Technical solution, rather than its limitations, scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto, although with reference to the foregoing embodiments to this hair
It is bright to be described in detail, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that：Any one skilled in the art
In the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, it can still modify to the technical solution recorded in previous embodiment or can be light
It is readily conceivable that variation or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features；And these modifications, variation or replacement, do not make
The essence of corresponding technical solution is detached from the spirit and scope of technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention, should all cover the protection in the present invention
Within the scope of.Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of drug abuse propagation prediction method, which is characterized in that including：
Get parms value, and the parameter value includes the conversion parameter of the different type crowd divided in advance, and single drug addict corresponds to
Relatives and friends' number and different type crowd number initial value；The conversion parameter includes turn between different type crowd
Throw-over rate or transition probability；
Calculate the different type crowd's in preset time based on the drug abuse propagation model pre-established according to the parameter value
Number；The different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, addicts, isolated crowd and drug users.
2. drug abuse propagation prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the preset time is divided into multiple ranks
Section, the process of establishing of the drug abuse propagation model include：
According to addicts the number of current generation, kith and kin crowd the current generation number and drug users in the current generation
Number and the conversion parameter, calculate addicts next stage number；
According to isolated crowd in the number of current generation, the number of the current generation of addicts and the conversion parameter, calculate
Number of the isolated crowd in next stage；
According to drug users in the number of current generation, the number of the current generation of isolated crowd and the conversion parameter, calculate
Number of the drug users in next stage；
According to the addicts in the number of next stage, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict, kith and kin people is calculated
Number of the group in next stage.
3. drug abuse propagation prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that each type crowd is according to gender
Multiple groups are divided with the age, the conversion parameter further includes the death rate；The parameter value further include in each type crowd not
The corresponding initial accounting with group.
4. drug abuse propagation prediction method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that the preset time is divided into multiple ranks
Section, the process of establishing of the drug abuse propagation model include：
According to each group in addicts in the number of current generation, the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict, drug rehabilitation
Number, the death rate and conversion parameter of the corresponding group in the current generation in crowd determine that each group is next in addicts
The number in stage；According to each group in addicts in the number of next stage, determine the addicts in next stage
Number；
According to corresponding group in isolated crowd in the number of current generation, addicts people of the corresponding group in the current generation
Number, the death rate and conversion parameter, determine that each group is in the number of next stage in isolated crowd；According to each in isolated crowd
Group in the number of next stage, determine the isolated crowd next level segment number；
According to corresponding group in drug users in the number of current generation, isolated crowd people of the corresponding group in the current generation
Number, the death rate and conversion parameter, determine that each group is in the number of next stage in drug users；According to each in drug users
Group in the number of next stage, determine the drug users next level segment number.
5. drug abuse propagation prediction method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that the transition probability includes addicts
In drug addict influence the relatives and friends in kith and kin crowd and be converted to the probability α of drug addict；The conversion rate includes drug rehabilitation people
Drug abstainer in group, which becomes the drug addict in the rate θ of drug addict, addicts, becomes the rate of the isolator in isolated crowd
β and isolator become the rate λ of drug abstainer；The death rate includes drug addict death rate x monthly, isolator monthly dead
Die the death rate z of rate y and drug abstainer monthly.
6. drug abuse propagation prediction method according to claim 5, which is characterized in that the drug abuse propagation model is：
qj(t)=βj×dj(t-1)+(1-λj-yj)×qj(t-1)；
aj(t)=λj×qj(t-1)+(1-θj-zj)×aj(t-1)；
Wherein, k is constant, indicates the corresponding relatives and friends' number of single drug addict；αijIndicate i-th group of drug addict in addicts
Jth group relatives and friends are converted into the probability of drug addict in the kith and kin crowd of influence；M indicates to divide multiple groups according to gender and age
Quantity；dj(t) indicate that jth group drug addict is in the number in t stages in addicts；dj(t-1) jth in addicts is indicated
Number of the group drug addict in the t-1 stages；qj(t) indicate that jth group isolator is in the number in t stages in isolated crowd；qj(t-
1) indicate that jth group isolator is in the number in t-1 stages in isolated crowd；aj(t) indicate that jth group drug abstainer exists in drug users
The number in t stages；aj(t-1) indicate that jth group drug abstainer is in the number in t-1 stages in drug users；θjIndicate drug users
In jth group drug abstainer become the rate of drug addict；aj(t-1) indicate that jth group drug abstainer is in the t-1 stages in drug users
Number；βjJth group drug addict becomes the rate of isolator in expression addicts；λjIndicate that jth group isolator becomes in isolated crowd
For the rate of drug abstainer；xjIndicate the death rate of jth group drug addict monthly in addicts；yjIndicate isolated crowd in jth group every
From the death rate of person monthly；zjIndicate the death rate of jth group drug abstainer monthly in drug users；D (t) indicates addicts the
The number in t stages；Number of Q (t) the expression isolated crowds in the t stages；Number of A (t) the expression drug users in the t stages.
7. drug abuse propagation prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that further include：
According to the sum of the different type crowd in the preset time, the modified-image of the sum of different type crowd is drawn,
And carry out output displaying.
8. a kind of drug abuse propagation forecast device, which is characterized in that including：
Acquisition module, for the value that gets parms, the parameter value includes the conversion parameter of the different type crowd divided in advance, single
The number initial value of the corresponding relatives and friends' number of a drug addict and different type crowd；The conversion parameter includes different type
Conversion rate between crowd or transition probability；
Computing module, for being calculated in preset time not based on the drug abuse propagation model pre-established according to the parameter value
The number of same type crowd；The different type crowd includes kith and kin crowd, addicts, isolated crowd and drug users.
9. a kind of electronic equipment, including memory, processor, be stored on the memory to run on the processor
Computer program, which is characterized in that the processor realizes that the claims 1 to 7 are any when executing the computer program
Method described in.
10. a kind of computer-readable medium for the non-volatile program code that can perform with processor, which is characterized in that described
Program code makes the processor execute claim 1 to 7 any one of them method.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110059727A (en) * | 2019-03-22 | 2019-07-26 | 北京航空航天大学 | The recognition methods of the high-risk addicts based on communication network a kind of and device |
| CN110570535A (en) * | 2019-07-30 | 2019-12-13 | 深圳市天彦通信股份有限公司 | Card punching management method and related device |
| CN112598184A (en) * | 2020-12-27 | 2021-04-02 | 上海达梦数据库有限公司 | Method and device for predicting relapse risk of drug-dropping person |
-
2018
- 2018-03-29 CN CN201810275651.XA patent/CN108510117A/en active Pending
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110059727A (en) * | 2019-03-22 | 2019-07-26 | 北京航空航天大学 | The recognition methods of the high-risk addicts based on communication network a kind of and device |
| CN110570535A (en) * | 2019-07-30 | 2019-12-13 | 深圳市天彦通信股份有限公司 | Card punching management method and related device |
| CN112598184A (en) * | 2020-12-27 | 2021-04-02 | 上海达梦数据库有限公司 | Method and device for predicting relapse risk of drug-dropping person |
| CN112598184B (en) * | 2020-12-27 | 2024-02-02 | 上海达梦数据库有限公司 | Method and device for predicting repeated air suction risk of drug addict |
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