CN108493999B - Method and system for evaluating complementarity of wind and light resources in region - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating wind-light resource complementarity in a region, which are used for obtaining wind-light complementary intensity of each grid point in the region through a wind speed standardized sequence and a ground accumulated irradiation quantity standardized sequence, and drawing a two-dimensional map of the wind-light complementary intensity of the region so as to evaluate the wind-light complementary intensity distribution condition of the region. The invention standardizes the wind and light variables to form new wind and light resource meteorological variables, integrates the wind and light resources uniformly, and fully considers the cooperative variability of the wind and light resources. The method has the advantages that the abstract concept of wind-light complementation is quantitatively calculated and described, and meanwhile, a resource distribution map of wind-light complementarity can be drawn through the method, so that valuable reference bases are provided for evaluation of wind-light resources in a certain area, site selection of a power station and ratio regulation and control of new energy resources.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power generation systems, and particularly relates to a method and a system for evaluating wind-light resource complementarity in an area.
Background
Wind energy and solar energy are unstable and discontinuous energy sources, and generate non-negligible impact on a power grid after large-scale grid connection. Due to the characteristics of continental monsoon climate, wind energy and solar energy have strong complementarity in time and region, namely wind is small when sunlight is strongest in the daytime, and illumination is weak at night, but the wind energy is strengthened due to large change of surface temperature difference; in summer, the sun directly irradiates the northern hemisphere, so that the sunlight intensity is high, and the seasonal wind is low, while in winter, although the sunlight intensity is weak, the wind power is high due to the large temperature difference between the north and the south. The changes of wind and radiation are important influence factors of the production output of the new energy power station. Therefore, the characteristics of wind and light resources are one of important reference factors in the site selection stage before the construction of the new energy power station.
Because wind and light are different meteorological variables and have larger difference in unit and space-time, the current wind and light resource evaluation method mainly carries out the evaluation of wind and light resources separately: the evaluation of the wind energy resources mainly analyzes average wind speed, average effective wind speed, average wind power density, average effective wind power density, wind energy density, effective wind energy density, electricity generation utilization hours and theoretical electricity generation utilization hours. The year of measuring the wind speed is mainly based on the average value of the average wind speed of a wind power plant or a region every month for a plurality of years (generally 30 years), the average value and the standard deviation are calculated, and the year of measuring the wind speed which is larger than (smaller than) 1 standard deviation is called as a big (small) wind month; the evaluation of solar energy resources mainly comprises total radiation exposure of a horizontal plane, total radiation exposure of an inclined plane of a photovoltaic array, normal direct radiation exposure, total annual radiation exposure level of the horizontal plane, stability level of the solar energy resources of the horizontal plane, direct radiation ratio level, peak sunshine hours and electricity generation utilization hours.
At present, "wind-solar hybrid" is a feature or characteristic more proposed from the perspective of wind energy and solar energy resources. In practical applications, the concept of "wind-solar hybrid" is more used for the design of a certain power generation system. Compared with independent wind power generation or photovoltaic power generation, the wind-solar hybrid power generation system can enable power output to be stable, and the absorption and acceptance degree of the power grid to intermittent renewable energy sources is increased. Therefore, the large-scale wind-solar hybrid power generation system is a very promising high-efficiency utilization form of renewable energy. However, with the rapid development of new energy in China, the installation proportion of the new energy is gradually increased, and the dispatching department pays more attention to the overall yield of regional new energy. Therefore, the regional wind energy and solar energy resource assessment provides an important reference basis for overall layout and site selection of the new energy station in the region. And the complementary relation of two resources in the region is utilized to carry out the overall design of the regional new energy station, thereby being more beneficial to the stability of the regional new energy production and power generation, reducing the harm to the power grid caused by the fluctuation of the new energy, and promoting the development of the new energy.
While the wind and light resource analysis performed separately as described above can see the overall distribution and historical variability of the wind and light resources, it cannot intuitively measure the characteristics of the wind and light complementary resources in the region. Meanwhile, most of the research on the wind-solar hybrid system is to perform optimization matching calculation, system optimization control and the like on a certain determined wind-solar hybrid system, and such analysis cannot guide site selection construction of the wind-solar hybrid power station and cannot evaluate the wind-solar resource complementarity in different periods.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a method and a system for evaluating wind-light resource complementarity in a region, which provide guidance for establishing site selection and power generation prediction of a wind-light complementary power station and lay a foundation for improving output stability of new energy and safety of new energy grid connection in the region.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is realized as follows:
a method of assessing wind-light resource complementarity within a region, comprising:
(1) standardizing the wind speed of a certain grid point in a region to a sequence v*And the normalized sequence R of the cumulative irradiation quantity on the ground*Adding to obtain a first wind-solar complementary index I of the lattice point: c. C1、c2、……、cn；
(2) The absolute value | v of the grid point wind speed normalized sequence*Absolute value | R of | and exposure normalized sequence*And | adding to obtain a second wind-solar complementary index II of the lattice point: d1、d2、……、dn；
(3) Judging the moment with stronger wind-solar complementarity of the lattice point according to the first wind-solar complementary index I and the second wind-solar complementary index II, counting the time period length with stronger wind-solar complementarity, and defining the wind-solar complementary intensity of the lattice point:
(4) and (4) repeating the steps (1) to (3) to obtain the wind-solar complementary intensity of each grid point, and drawing a regional wind-solar complementary intensity two-dimensional map so as to evaluate the wind-solar complementary intensity distribution condition of the region.
Further, the wind speed normalization sequence v of the grid points*The normalization method comprises the following steps:
(101) preprocessing the historical wind speed data of the grid hub height, and clearing abnormal data values;
(102) carrying out standardization processing on the wind speed after pretreatment to obtain a wind speed standardization time sequence v*：
The normalization method is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: v. oftFor the data in the original sequence to be,
s is the mean value of the original sequence, s is the standard deviation of the original sequence, and s is calculated according to the following formula:
further, the normalized sequence R of the ground cumulative exposure of the grid points*The normalization method comprises the following steps:
(201) preprocessing historical data of the grid point ground accumulated irradiation amount, and clearing abnormal data values;
(202) standardizing the ground accumulated irradiation after pretreatment to obtain a ground accumulated irradiation standardized time sequence R*：
The normalization method is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: rtFor the data in the original sequence to be,
the mean value of the original sequence, σ, the standard deviation of the original sequence, σ is calculated according to the following formula:
further, the method for judging the time with strong lattice point wind-solar complementarity in the step (3) comprises the following steps:
for the ith moment, if the first wind-solar complementary index c is satisfiediWithin +/-1 times of standard deviation and meets a second wind-solar complementary index diIf the standard deviation is more than 2 times, the wind-solar complementarity of the lattice point at the moment i is stronger, and otherwise, if the standard deviation does not meet any one of the conditions, the wind-solar complementarity at the moment i is weaker.
Further, the wind-solar complementary intensity of the lattice points in the step (3) is defined as: wind-solar complementary strength is the time length of strong wind-solar complementary property/total time length.
In another aspect of the present invention, a system for evaluating wind-light resource complementarity in an area is further provided, including:
a first wind-solar complementary index module for standardizing the wind speed sequence v of a grid point in a region*And the normalized sequence R of the cumulative irradiation quantity on the ground*Adding to obtain a first wind-solar complementary index I of the lattice point: c. C1、c2、……、cn；
A second wind-solar complementary index module for normalizing the absolute value | v of the grid wind speed sequence*Absolute value | R of | and exposure normalized sequence*And | adding to obtain a second wind-solar complementary index II of the lattice point: d1、d2、……、dn；
The judging module is used for judging the moment with stronger wind-solar complementarity of the lattice point according to the first wind-solar complementary index I and the second wind-solar complementary index II;
the wind-solar complementary intensity module is used for counting the time period length with stronger wind-solar complementary property and defining the wind-solar complementary intensity of the lattice point:
and the drawing module is used for obtaining the wind-solar complementary intensity of each grid point through the first wind-solar complementary index module, the second wind-solar complementary index module, the judging module and the wind-solar complementary intensity module, and drawing a regional wind-solar complementary intensity two-dimensional map so as to evaluate the wind-solar complementary intensity distribution condition of the region.
The system further comprises a wind speed standardization module, a wind speed standardization module and a control module, wherein the wind speed standardization module is used for preprocessing wind speed historical data of the height of the lattice point hub and eliminating abnormal data values; carrying out standardization processing on the wind speed after pretreatment to obtain a wind speed standardization time sequence v*：
The system further comprises a ground accumulated exposure dose standardization module which is used for preprocessing the historical data of the grid point ground accumulated exposure dose and eliminating abnormal data values; standardizing the ground accumulated irradiation after pretreatment to obtain a ground accumulated irradiation standardized time sequence R*：
Further, the judging module includes:
the first wind-solar complementary index judgment submodule is used for judging the ith moment and the first wind-solar complementary index ciWhether within ± 1-fold standard deviation;
a second wind-solar complementary index judgment submodule for judging the ith time and the second wind-solar complementary index diWhether greater than 2 standard deviations.
Further, the wind-solar complementary intensity module comprises a calculation submodule for calculating according to a wind-solar complementary intensity formula, wherein the formula is as follows: wind-solar complementary strength is the time length of strong wind-solar complementary property/total time length.
Compared with the prior art, the method and the system for evaluating the complementarity of the wind and light resources in the region have the beneficial effects that:
the invention carries out standardized processing on the wind and light variables, reasonably quantifies the change of historical wind and light resources, forms new meteorological variables of the wind and light resources, integrates the wind and light resources uniformly, and fully considers the cooperative change of the wind resources and the light resources. The wind and light complementation is an abstract concept, and a new variable is formed for quantitative analysis based on the self change amplitude and the mutual relation of the two resources, so that the complementation characteristic of the wind and light resources can be seen more intuitively. Meanwhile, a resource distribution map of wind-light complementarity can be drawn through the method, and valuable reference bases are provided for the evaluation of wind-light resources in a certain area, the site selection of a power station and the ratio regulation of new energy resources.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic time-series diagram of a single-lattice wind-solar complementary index I according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic time series diagram of a single lattice wind-solar complementation index II according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a graph of wind-solar complementary intensity in 1987-2016 in a certain area according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
It should be noted that the embodiments of the present invention and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other without conflict.
As shown in fig. 1, the specific method of the present invention is:
1) and (3) preprocessing the wind speed of the hub height of the lattice point and the ground accumulated irradiation amount data, and clearing abnormal data values (including abnormal size values, continuous constant values, abrupt variation constant points and the like).
2) Carrying out standardization processing on the wind speed after pretreatment to obtain a wind speed standardization time sequence v*：
The normalization method is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: v. oftIs the data in the original sequence, N is the data amount of the data in the original sequence,
s is the mean value of the original sequence, s is the standard deviation of the original sequence, and s is calculated according to the following formula: the following is a conventional standard deviation calculation formula, which is not described herein,
3) similar to the step 2, the ground accumulated irradiation amount after the pretreatment is subjected to standardization treatment to obtain a ground irradiation amount standardized time sequence R*：
The normalization method is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: rtFor the data in the original sequence to be,
the mean value of the original sequence, σ, the standard deviation of the original sequence, σ is calculated according to the following formula:
4) standardizing the wind speed of the corresponding grid points to a sequence v*And the normalized sequence R of the cumulative irradiation quantity on the ground*Adding to obtain a first wind-solar complementary index I: c. C1、c2、……、cn。
5) Normalizing absolute value | v of sequence of wind speeds corresponding to grid points*Absolute value | R of | and exposure normalized sequence*And | adding to obtain a second wind-solar complementary index II: d1、d2、……、dn。
6) If the first wind-solar complementary index (c) is satisfied for the ith momenti) Within +/-1 times of standard deviation and meets a second wind-solar complementary index (d)i) If the standard deviation is more than 2 times, the wind-solar complementarity of the grid point at the time i is stronger, otherwise, if the standard deviation does not meet any one of the conditions, the wind-solar complementarity at the moment is weaker.
7) Counting the time period length with strong wind-solar complementarity, and defining the wind-solar complementary intensity of the lattice point:
wind-light complementary strength is the time length with stronger wind-light complementary property/total time length
The wind-light complementary strength is an index for measuring the strong and weak wind-light complementary performance of each grid point, and the larger the index value is, the longer the duration of the wind-light complementary performance of the grid point is, which indicates that the wind-light resource complementary performance of the site is stronger.
8) And drawing a regional wind-solar complementary intensity two-dimensional map according to the wind-solar complementary intensity calculated by each grid point so as to evaluate the wind-solar complementary intensity distribution condition of the region.
Taking wind and light resource complementary evaluation in a certain area as an example, the wind speed and irradiance data of 1-2016-12-1-year in 1987 are selected for analysis by using the monthly average reanalysis data of the European numerical prediction center (ECMWF).
The data of wind speed and irradiance are first normalized. And adding the normalized wind speed and irradiance data to obtain a first wind-solar complementary index I. Taking 1 grid point as an example, the wind-solar complementary index is drawn as shown in fig. 2.
And then adding the absolute value of the normalized wind speed and the absolute value of the irradiance to obtain a second wind-solar complementary index II, which is plotted as shown in FIG. 3.
Selecting the months which simultaneously meet the conditions that 1) the wind-solar complementary index I is within 1 time of standard deviation and 2) the wind-solar complementary index II is greater than 2 times of standard deviation through two wind-solar complementary indexes to obtain the months which meet the conditions that: month 7 in 1987, month 8 in 1987, month 9 in 1988, month 10 in 1988, month 2 in 1989, month 5 in 1997, month 6 in 1998, month 10 in 1998 and month 7 in 2006, the above two conditions being satisfied for 10 months. Since 360 months are needed in total of 30 years, the wind-solar complementary intensity of the lattice point is 10/360-0.027.
Through the calculation, the wind and light resource complementary intensity map of the region from 1987 to 2016 can be drawn, as shown in fig. 4.
The basic principles, main features, and embodiments of the present invention have been described above, but the present invention is not limited to the above-described implementation process, and various changes and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, unless such changes and modifications depart from the scope of the present invention, they should be construed as being included therein.
Claims (9)
1. A method for evaluating wind-light resource complementarity in a region, comprising:
(1) standardizing the wind speed of a certain grid point in a region to a sequence v*And the normalized sequence R of the cumulative irradiation quantity on the ground*Adding to obtain a first wind-solar complementary index I of the lattice point: c. C1、c2、……、cn；
(2) The absolute value | v of the grid point wind speed normalized sequence*Absolute value | R of | and exposure normalized sequence*And | adding to obtain a second wind-solar complementary index II of the lattice point: d1、d2、……、dn；
(3) Judging the moment with stronger wind-solar complementarity of the lattice point according to the first wind-solar complementary index I and the second wind-solar complementary index II, counting the time period length with stronger wind-solar complementarity, and defining the wind-solar complementary intensity of the lattice point;
the method for judging the time with strong lattice point wind-solar complementarity comprises the following steps:
for the ith moment, if the first wind-solar complementary index ci is within +/-1 time of standard deviation and the second wind-solar complementary index di is greater than 2 times of standard deviation, the wind-solar complementary performance of the lattice point at the moment i is stronger, otherwise, if any one of the conditions is not met, the wind-solar complementary performance at the moment is weaker;
(4) and (4) repeating the steps (1) to (3) to obtain the wind-solar complementary intensity of each grid point, and drawing a regional wind-solar complementary intensity two-dimensional map so as to evaluate the wind-solar complementary intensity distribution condition of the region.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the wind speed normalization sequence v of the grid points is*The normalization method comprises the following steps:
(101) preprocessing the historical wind speed data of the grid hub height, and clearing abnormal data values;
(102) carrying out standardization processing on the wind speed after pretreatment to obtain a wind speed standardization time sequence v*：
The normalization method is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: v. ofiFor the data in the original sequence to be,
s is the mean value of the original sequence, s is the standard deviation of the original sequence, and s is calculated according to the following formula:
3. the method for assessing wind-light resource complementarity within a region according to claim 1, wherein the normalized sequence of the ground cumulative exposure dose R of the grid points*The normalization method comprises the following steps:
(201) preprocessing historical data of the grid point ground accumulated irradiation amount, and clearing abnormal data values;
(202) standardizing the ground accumulated irradiation after pretreatment to obtain a ground accumulated irradiation standardized time sequence R*：
The normalization method is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein: riFor the data in the original sequence to be,
is the mean value, σ, of the original sequence·Is the standard deviation, σ, of the original sequence·Calculated according to the following formula:
4. the method for evaluating wind-light resource complementarity within a region according to claim 1, wherein the wind-light complementary intensity of the lattice points in step (3) is defined as: wind-solar complementary strength is the time length of strong wind-solar complementary property/total time length.
5. A system for assessing wind-light resource complementarity within a region, comprising:
a first wind-solar complementary index module for standardizing the wind speed sequence v of a grid point in a region*And the normalized sequence R of the cumulative irradiation quantity on the ground*Adding to obtain a first wind-solar complementary index I of the lattice point: c. C1、c2、……、cn；
A second wind-solar complementary index module for converting the wind-solar complementary index module into a wind-solar complementary index moduleAbsolute value | v of grid point wind speed normalized sequence*Absolute value | R of | and exposure normalized sequence*And | adding to obtain a second wind-solar complementary index II of the lattice point: d1、d2、……、dn；
The judging module is used for judging the moment with stronger wind-solar complementarity of the lattice point according to the first wind-solar complementary index I and the second wind-solar complementary index II;
the wind-solar complementary intensity module is used for counting the time period length with stronger wind-solar complementary property and defining the wind-solar complementary intensity of the lattice point;
the method for judging the time with strong lattice point wind-solar complementarity comprises the following steps:
for the ith moment, if the first wind-solar complementary index ci is within +/-1 time of standard deviation and the second wind-solar complementary index di is greater than 2 times of standard deviation, the wind-solar complementary performance of the lattice point at the moment i is stronger, otherwise, if any one of the conditions is not met, the wind-solar complementary performance at the moment is weaker;
and the drawing module is used for obtaining the wind-solar complementary intensity of each grid point through the first wind-solar complementary index module, the second wind-solar complementary index module, the judging module and the wind-solar complementary intensity module, and drawing a regional wind-solar complementary intensity two-dimensional map so as to evaluate the wind-solar complementary intensity distribution condition of the region.
6. The system for evaluating wind-light resource complementarity in a region according to claim 5, further comprising a wind speed standardization module for preprocessing wind speed historical data of the grid hub height and eliminating abnormal data values; carrying out standardization processing on the wind speed after pretreatment to obtain a wind speed standardization time sequence v*：
7. The system for evaluating wind and light resource complementarity in a region according to claim 5, further comprising a ground accumulated exposure dose standardization module for preprocessing historical data of grid ground accumulated exposure dose and eliminating abnormal data values; standardizing the ground accumulated irradiation after pretreatment to obtain a ground accumulated irradiation standardized time sequence R*：
8. The system for evaluating wind and light resource complementarity within a region according to claim 5, wherein the determining module comprises:
the first wind-solar complementary index judgment submodule is used for judging the ith moment and the first wind-solar complementary index ciWhether within ± 1-fold standard deviation;
a second wind-solar complementary index judgment submodule for judging the ith time and the second wind-solar complementary index diWhether greater than 2 standard deviations.
9. The system for evaluating wind-solar energy complementarity within a region according to claim 5, wherein the wind-solar complementary intensity module includes a calculation sub-module for performing calculation according to a wind-solar complementary intensity formula: wind-solar complementary strength is the time length of strong wind-solar complementary property/total time length.
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