CN108446417A - Severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure and device - Google Patents
Severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure and device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention is suitable for subgrade stability assessment technology field, provides a kind of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure and device.This method includes：The monitoring data in monitoring region are obtained by monitoring system, and preliminary treatment is carried out to the monitoring data；Uncertain prediction is carried out according to satisfy the need base temperature of ground temperature appraising model, uncertain prediction is carried out to subgrade deformation according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction；According to the control differential equation of Temperature Field satisfy the need being determined property of base temperature prediction, according to permafrost region deformation and stress governing equation to being determined property of subgrade deformation predict；According to the uncertain prediction result and the deterministic forecast of roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation of roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation as a result, assessing subgrade stability.The present invention can fully assess the stability of severe cold area high ferro roadbed using certainty and the uncertain subgrade stability appraisal procedure being combined, and improve the accuracy of subgrade stability assessment.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to subgrade stability assessment technology fields more particularly to a kind of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade to stablize
Property online interaction formula appraisal procedure and device.
Background technology
China severe cold area high speed railway construction is carried out on a large scale, and the high stability and high ride of high-speed railway are given
Subgrade stability proposes the requirement of high standard.Accurate evaluation and the long-term trend prediction of subgrade stability are severe cold area high speeds
The important guarantee of railway operation safety.Traditional subgrade stability appraisal procedure generally use is monitored on-line for a long time and numerical computations
Method, however due to severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability evolution mechanism complexity, using traditional appraisal procedure to severe cold
The accuracy that regional high-speed railway subgrade stability is assessed is poor, it is difficult to accurately and timely assess its stability.
Invention content
In view of this, an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formulas to comment
Estimate method and device, the accuracy assessed with to solve current appraisal procedure to severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability compared with
Poor problem.
The first aspect of the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula
Appraisal procedure, including：
The monitoring data in monitoring region are obtained by monitoring system, and preliminary treatment is carried out to the monitoring data；
Base temperature progress uncertainty is satisfied the need according to ground temperature appraising model and the monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment in advance
It surveys, the monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment carry out subgrade deformation uncertain pre-
It surveys；
Base temperature progress is satisfied the need according to the control differential equation of Temperature Field and the monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment really
Qualitative forecasting, the monitoring data according to permafrost region deformation with the governing equation of stress and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment are to subgrade deformation
Being determined property is predicted；The temperature boundary condition of the governing equation of the wherein described permafrost region deformation and stress is according to roadbed ground temperature
Uncertain prediction result is adjusted；
According to the certainty of the uncertain prediction result and roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation of roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation
Prediction result assesses subgrade stability.
The second aspect of the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula
Apparatus for evaluating, including：
Acquisition module, the monitoring data for obtaining monitoring region by monitoring system, and the monitoring data are carried out
Preliminary treatment；
Uncertain evaluation module satisfies the need for the monitoring data according to ground temperature appraising model and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Base temperature carries out uncertain prediction, and the monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment are to roadbed
Deformation carries out uncertain prediction；
Certainty evaluation module, for according to the control differential equation of Temperature Field and the monitoring number Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
According to being determined property of base temperature prediction of satisfying the need, according to permafrost region deformation with the governing equation of stress and by the preliminary treatment
Monitoring data predict being determined property of subgrade deformation；The temperature boundary of the governing equation of the wherein described permafrost region deformation and stress
Condition is adjusted according to the uncertain prediction result of roadbed ground temperature；
Comprehensive assessment module, for according to the uncertain prediction result and roadbed ground temperature of roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation with
The deterministic forecast of Roadbed Deformation is as a result, assess subgrade stability.
Existing advantageous effect is the embodiment of the present invention compared with prior art：By according to ground temperature appraising model and process
Satisfy the need base temperature of the monitoring data of preliminary treatment carries out uncertain prediction, according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and by preliminary place
The monitoring data of reason carry out uncertain prediction to subgrade deformation, can realize that uncertain appraisal procedure carries out subgrade stability
Assessment；By being satisfied the need being determined property of base temperature according to the control differential equation of Temperature Field and the monitoring data Jing Guo preliminary treatment
Prediction is determined subgrade deformation with the governing equation of stress and the monitoring data Jing Guo preliminary treatment according to permafrost region deformation
Property prediction, can realize that certainty appraisal procedure assesses subgrade stability.The embodiment of the present invention is using certainty and not
It determines the subgrade stability appraisal procedure being combined, the stability of severe cold area high ferro roadbed can be fully assessed, improve roadbed
The accuracy of stability assessment.
Description of the drawings
It to describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, below will be to embodiment or description of the prior art
Needed in attached drawing be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description be only the present invention some
Embodiment for those of ordinary skill in the art without having to pay creative labor, can also be according to these
Attached drawing obtains other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Implementation flow chart；
Fig. 2 is in severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The implementation flow chart for obtaining the monitoring data in monitoring region by monitoring system；
Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of high-speed railway subgrade stability online evaluation device provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
In being described below, for illustration and not for limitation, it is proposed that such as tool of particular system structure, technology etc
Body details, to understand thoroughly the embodiment of the present invention.However, it will be clear to one skilled in the art that there is no these specific
The present invention can also be realized in the other embodiments of details.In other situations, it omits to well-known system, device, electricity
The detailed description of road and method, in case unnecessary details interferes description of the invention.
In order to illustrate technical solutions according to the invention, illustrated below by specific embodiment.
Fig. 1 is severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Implementation flow chart, details are as follows：
In S101, the monitoring data in monitoring region are obtained by monitoring system, and the monitoring data are carried out preliminary
Processing.
In the present embodiment, monitoring region can be determined by numerical simulation.Optionally, the preliminary treatment includes pre- place
Reason, inquiry and preliminary analysis；Pretreatment includes to the checking of the monitoring data, screens and singular value is examined and interpolation；Inquiry
Including data query and Drawing of Curve；Preliminary analysis includes alarm decision and data analysis.
Specifically, data query is to refer to inquire specified section, designated time period, specified gaging hole, designated depth etc. pair
The monitoring data answered.Drawing of Curve refers to that can draw time-history curves and depth-data and curves by given query range.Curve is painted
System mainly draws various curve charts automatically using the monitoring data stored in database, and it is heavy to can include but is not limited to roadbed
Time-history curves, Settlement Profiler curve, ground temperature time-history curves, ground temperature are dropped with depth change curve, soil body static pressure time-history curves, soil
Body dynamic stress time-history curves and change of moisture content curve etc..Alarm decision mainly judges whether to need to report according to monitoring data
It is alert, such as judged by the comparison of subgrade settlement deformation or dynamic stress and warning index, data analysis refers to monitoring data
Basic handling works, such as analyzes the variation of each period rate of settling.
As an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Fig. 2, obtaining the monitoring in monitoring region in S101 by monitoring system
Data may include：
In S201, STABILITY MONITORING index and measuring point layout scheme are determined, and the monitoring is determined by numerical simulation
Region.
In the present embodiment, the problem of being lacked for severe cold area high ferro subgrade stability monitoring index, it is cold by analyzing
Area's high ferro roadbed working characteristics, according to the evaluation index and influence factor of cold area's high ferro subgrade stability, it may be determined that cold area is high
Railway base STABILITY MONITORING index is as shown in table 1.
Table 1 is trembled with fear area's high ferro subgrade stability monitoring index
According to cold area's high ferro engineering geometry environmental quality and roadbed anti-freeze expansion design measure, pass through the selected monitoring of numerical simulation
Region, and design roadbed transverse direction section and be longitudinally continuous the spaces the Duo Chang measuring point layout scheme being combined.Wherein, roadbed section
Monitoring data can include but is not limited to delaminating deposition deformation, ground temperature, resistance to shear of soil, four class monitoring project of water content.In difference
The changeover portion region of structural shape, curb surface from bridge (culvert) frame edge along line direction in transition segment limit every
Pre-determined distance (such as 5m) arranges a measuring point, constitutes Longitudinal Settlement and supervises Hydrographic General Line, realizes the stereoscopic monitoring of multi-parameter.
In S202, the monitoring system is established according to the STABILITY MONITORING index and the measuring point layout scheme.
In the present embodiment, according to STABILITY MONITORING index and measuring point layout scheme, selection monitoring sensor and data pass
Transmission scheme builds monitoring system.Monitoring system can include but is not limited to field monitoring station and monitoring center.Field monitoring station is certainly
The dynamic various monitoring data of acquisition, and monitoring center is automatically transmitted to by multi-mode radio network, complete depositing for data at center
Storage, retrieval, analysis and assessment etc..Monitoring system can realize remote auto control, can be by monitoring center to field monitoring station
Modifying surveying time that releases news measures content, calls survey, the operating parameter for changing field monitoring station and program circuit together etc..
In S203, the monitoring data in the monitoring region are obtained by the monitoring system.
The long-term automatic monitoring system of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade of the present embodiment structure, have full-automatic, high-precision,
The advantages of low-power consumption, security protection be good, long time stability, may be implemented sedimentation and deformation, resistance to shear of soil, ground temperature, water content etc.
The integrated automatic collection of roadbed state parameter, signal transmit automatically, data analysis is handled.
In S102, base temperature progress is satisfied the need not according to ground temperature appraising model and the monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Deterministic forecast, the monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment carry out subgrade deformation not true
Qualitative forecasting.
In the present embodiment, can be satisfied the need base temperature and subgrade deformation by uncertain subgrade stability appraisal procedure
Carry out forecast assessment.The uncertain prediction for base temperature of satisfying the need first below illustrates.
The long-term ground temperature field data of cold area's high ferro roadbed can be obtained according to monitoring data, on this basis, is considered average
The influences such as ground temperature, ground temperature amplitude, soil mass property and phase difference, while to overcome in the dispersion of field monitoring data and field monitoring
The deficiency that partial data easily lacks can obtain changing with depth and Time Continuous using the semi-theoretical analysis method of semiempirical
Roadbed different location ground temperature estimate formula.
Consider the influence of time phase difference, it is assumed that the soil body is the constant homogeneous soil of state, to a certain roadbed in a certain area
Section determines that lateral position x, the ground temperature appraising model that formula (1) may be used in the temperature T (z, t) at the t days depth z are estimated
It calculates：
Wherein, TmFor the mean annual cost at depth z, AsTo change amplitude temperature year at earth's surface, z is apart from road bed
Depth absolute value, auThe average thermal diffusion coefficient of the soil body, p are the vibration period when to ignore earth interior hot-fluid,For first phase
Angle, t are the time apart from zero date,Indicate delay degree of the phase relative to earth's surface at depth z.
Ground temperature amplitude increases exponentially rule with depth and decays, as shown in formula (2)：
Mean annual cost envelope type can be positive gradient type or negative gradient type, indicate that mean annual cost can be with depth
Increase and increases or decreases.It therefore, can be according to mean annual cost envelope type, to select suitable letter in actually calculating
Number form formula indicates mean annual cost.
In original series of the mean value of amplitude as mean annual cost that prediction initial stage can be predicted according to meteorological data,
The prediction later stage can fit mean annual cost function of the different location ground temperature amplitude with depth according to monitoring data, and then obtain
Mean annual cost.In addition, since roadbed filling is different from foundation soil body property, ground temperature amplitude can divide with the regularity of distribution of depth
It is fitted for two parts.
Lagging phase can be set at prediction initial stage according to meteorological data, and after the prediction the phase further according to field data
Lagging phase is gradually corrected, such as can be according to reaching the time of maximum ground temperature and the difference of time to count at roadbed different location
Away from lagging phase is calculated.
When field data accumulates to a certain extent, the ground temperature estimation formula more close to measured value can be obtained.It can be with
Freeze deep and estimation by roadbed different depth measured value and estimated value and actual measurement and freezes deep comparison, verification ground temperature appraising model
Reliability, and then further freeze using ground temperature appraising model that deep, laterally the temperature difference is different, freezes the data informations such as time-histories to each section
It carries out going deep into excavation, to contribute to the assessment of roadbed temperature stability.
As an embodiment of the present invention, according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and by the preliminary treatment in S102
Monitoring data carry out uncertain prediction to subgrade deformation：
Monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment are formed into data sequence, grade is carried out than examining to the data sequence；
The Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction is established, the dynamic grey prediction will be used as than the data sequence of inspection by grade
The reference sequences of model；Wherein, the Background Construction value of the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction is
z(1)(k)=ax(1)(k)+(1-a)x(1)(k-1), k=2,3 ..., n (3)
Wherein a is construction range parameter, a ∈ (0,1)；
According to x(0)(n) relative error Δn(a), average relative errorWith mean square deviation ratio C0(a) it determines best
Value aopt；
According to the optimum value aoptPredicted value is obtained with the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
It is specifically described below.
In the present embodiment, in order to realize prediction in real time in monitoring process, the realization pair especially during Frozen-thawed cycled
The prediction of the sedimentation and deformation real-time high-precision of small magnitude, establishes dynamic grey forecasting model.
First, it in order to ensure the feasibility of modeling method, needs to do inspection processing to data sequence, whether to pass through grade ratio
It examines to judge that can data sequence carry out gray prediction according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction.Data can be calculated by formula (4)
The grade ratio of ordered series of numbers：
If all grade ratio λ (k) of data sequence, which all fall, can hold rangeInterior, then the data sequence can
Gray prediction is carried out using the reference sequences as Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction.Otherwise, it needs first to do translation change to the data sequence
Processing is changed, so that all grades of ratios of the data sequence is both fallen within and can be held in covering, then using the data sequence as dynamic grey prediction
The reference sequences of model.Such as constant c appropriate is taken, translation transformation can be made to the data sequence by formula (5)：
y(0)=x(0)(k)+c, k=1,2 ..., n (5)
It can make ordered series of numbers y by translation transformation(0)The grade ratio λ of=(y (1), y (2) ..., y (n))y(k) covering can be held by falling into
In area, then using the data sequence after translation transformation as the reference sequences of Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction.
The present embodiment is the precision for improving prediction model, improves Background Construction value, establishes dynamic grey prediction mould
Type --- GM (1,1, a) model.In GM, (1,1, a) in model, for a ∈ (0,1), Background Construction value is as shown in formula (3).
Predicted value can be obtained after Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction albefactionIt is pre- to fully ensure that
The accuracy of measured value is different from the basis for estimation of a optimum values in general models, and the present embodiment is based in gray system theory
" new information is preferential " principle, with the relative error Δ of x^ ((0)) (n)n(a) based on, average relative errorWith mean square deviation ratio
Value C0(a) supplemented by optimum value a is taken as aoptCriterion, that is, take Δn(a) a when absolute value minimum is optimum value aopt, and it is best
Value aoptIt must meetAnd C0(a) in same accuracy class.Determine aoptAfter can be obtained Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction GM (1,
1, predicted value a)
As an embodiment of the present invention, in step " according to the optimum value aoptWith the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
Obtain predicted value" after, can also include：
Judge whether the predicted value meets default precision conditions；
If the predicted value is unsatisfactory for default precision conditions, according to predetermined interval to suboptimum value a 'optIt is sampled,
Successively using sampled value as the value of a in the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction, until acquiring the stable accuracy of preset value；
The predicted value is determined according to the corresponding sampled value of the stable accuracy and the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
In the present embodiment, default precision conditions can be determined according to actual conditions and monitoring accuracy.If predicted value is discontented
The default precision conditions of foot, then show that the predicted value precision is relatively low, which given up, then right according to predetermined interval (such as 0.01)
Suboptimum value a 'optIt is sampled, successively using sampled value as the value of a in Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction, until acquiring predicted value
Until stable accuracy, the value of a at this time is substituted into Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and determines predicted value
Optionally, if by step " according to the corresponding sampled value of the stable accuracy and the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
Determine the predicted value" after obtained predicted value still not satisfy default precision conditions, then select
Select suitable dimension and meet the modified residual sequence of residual sequence, using the residual sequence to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction GM (1,
1, it a) is modified, to improve the precision of predicted value.Specifically, the Residual Error Modified Model that regressive reduction-type may be used is repaiied
Just.If ε(0)(0) be Residual Error Modified Model in residual error endpiece initial value, can obtain revised Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction GM (1,
1, a) as shown in formula (6)：
Equally, residual GM step also may be repeated to improve the precision of prediction of model.
The Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction that the present embodiment is established can gradually adjust prediction according to measured data, therefore short-term pre-
It is higher to survey subgrade deformation steady state accuracy, but predetermined period is shorter, therefore also need to be combined to come with certainty appraisal procedure
Predict the development and change of subgrade deformation in longer period.
In S103, satisfied the need base according to the control differential equation of Temperature Field and the monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Being determined property of temperature is predicted, the monitoring data pair with the governing equation of stress and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment are deformed according to permafrost region
Being determined property of subgrade deformation is predicted；The temperature boundary condition of the governing equation of the wherein described permafrost region deformation and stress is according to road
The uncertain prediction result of base temperature is adjusted.
In the present embodiment, it is carried out come the mild subgrade deformation in base of satisfying the need using deterministic subgrade stability appraisal procedure
Forecast assessment.The control differential equation of Temperature Field is：
Wherein, λ is the coefficient of heat conduction of roadbed material, and T is temperature, and t is the time, and x, y are coordinate position.The control differential
Equation carries out ground temperature numerical simulation using the method that spatial domain finite element and time finite element method method are combined, and can ensure road
The estimated accuracy of base temperature.
Since the INDIRECT COUPLING model generally used at present cannot be satisfied the tight of high-speed railway subgrade deformation stability analysis
Lattice requirement, the present embodiment, in conjunction with numerical model physical constraint situation, are established on the basis of considering that phase change zone additional stress influences
Relational model in thermoelasticity and frozen soil between deformation characteristic coefficient as shown in the formula (8), and then determines permafrost region deformation
With the governing equation of stress, and stress field and deformation field are solved based on ground temperature field condition, realize Temperature Field and deformation field
Continuous coupled calculating, to ensure to the estimated accuracy of subgrade deformation.
Wherein, [Tu,Tl] be permafrost region deformation and stress governing equation temperature boundary condition, can be according to walking before
The uncertain prediction result of rapid base temperature of satisfying the need is adjusted, and η is frozen-heave factor, and μ is model coefficient.
The certainty subgrade stability appraisal procedure of the present embodiment can with obtaining roadbed comprehensively mild mechanical stability (including
All dynamic stabilities) index of correlation distribution and variation.It can be by the temperature obtained by certainty subgrade stability appraisal procedure
Degree field, deformation field carry out comparison adjustment with corresponding actual measurement ground temperature, soil stress and deformation measurement data.Based on a large amount of actual measurement moneys
After expecting the input of obtained temperature boundary condition, the governing equation of permafrost region deformation and stress can be adjusted in real time, to more accurate
The development and change of ground predicting long-term sedimentation and deformation and roadbed dynamic stress and dynamic deformation.
In S104, according to the uncertain prediction result and roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation of roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation
Deterministic forecast as a result, assessing subgrade stability.
The present embodiment establishes the severe cold area high ferro subgrade stability online interaction remotely coordinated under internet big data
The appraisal procedure of formula, to fully assess and predict the stability of severe cold area high ferro roadbed.What certainty and uncertainty combined
Can be that the operation of roadbed is tieed up in the following areas after severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure is established
Shield provides reference：
1. the comprehensive Subgrade stability analysis assessment of real-time online, can provide early warning in time；It, can after key sections verification
Larger range of model is established, and then is generalized to and completely applies, to provide scientific basis for the disease control of roadbed；
2. assessment and prediction result can be fed back in monitoring system, monitoring frequency is adjusted, determines and needs emphasis monitoring
Region and period etc. achieve the purpose that feedback control, realize the fine-grained management of monitoring system, are saving the same of monitoring cost
When maximumlly obtain more valuable monitoring information；
3. construction, design and monitoring scheme that subgrade stability analysis and assessment result can be timely fed back to similar item are set
During meter etc., achieve the purpose that optimization design and construction.
The present embodiment can be by means of the development of internet big data and monitoring technology, and dynamic circulation interactively changes always
Into per circulation primary, all so that the assessment of subgrade stability is more objective comprehensive, prediction is more accurate, therefore can be necessarily
Ensure that severe cold area high ferro subgrade stability plays huge facilitation.
The embodiment of the present invention by the monitoring data according to ground temperature appraising model and Jing Guo preliminary treatment satisfy the need base temperature into
The uncertain prediction of row, the monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo preliminary treatment carry out subgrade deformation not true
Qualitative forecasting can realize that uncertain appraisal procedure assesses subgrade stability；Pass through the control differential according to Temperature Field
Equation and monitoring data Jing Guo preliminary treatment are satisfied the need the prediction of being determined property of base temperature, according to the control of permafrost region deformation and stress
Equation processed and monitoring data Jing Guo preliminary treatment predict being determined property of subgrade deformation, can realize certainty appraisal procedure
Subgrade stability is assessed.The embodiment of the present invention is using certainty and the uncertain subgrade stability assessment side being combined
Method can fully assess the stability of severe cold area high ferro roadbed, improve the accuracy of subgrade stability assessment.
It should be understood that the size of the serial number of each step is not meant that the order of the execution order in above-described embodiment, each process
Execution sequence should be determined by its function and internal logic, the implementation process without coping with the embodiment of the present invention constitutes any limit
It is fixed.
Corresponding to the severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure described in foregoing embodiments, figure
3 show the signal of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula apparatus for evaluating provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Figure.For convenience of description, only the parts related to this embodiment are shown.
With reference to Fig. 3, which includes acquisition module 31, uncertain evaluation module 32, certainty evaluation module 33 and comprehensive
Close evaluation module 34.
Acquisition module 31, for by monitoring system obtain monitoring region monitoring data, and to the monitoring data into
Row preliminary treatment.
Uncertain evaluation module 32, for the monitoring data pair according to ground temperature appraising model and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Roadbed ground temperature carries out uncertain prediction, is satisfied the need according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and the monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Base deformation carries out uncertain prediction.
Certainty evaluation module 33, for according to the control differential equation of Temperature Field and the monitoring Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Data satisfy the need being determined property of base temperature prediction, according to permafrost region deformation and stress governing equation and pass through the preliminary treatment
Monitoring data to being determined property of subgrade deformation predict；The temperature side of the governing equation of the wherein described permafrost region deformation and stress
Boundary's condition is adjusted according to the uncertain prediction result of roadbed ground temperature.
Comprehensive assessment module 34, for the uncertain prediction result and roadbed ground temperature according to roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation
Deterministic forecast with Roadbed Deformation is as a result, assess subgrade stability.
Preferably, the acquisition module 31 is used for：
It determines STABILITY MONITORING index and measuring point layout scheme, and the monitoring region is determined by numerical simulation；
The monitoring system is established according to the STABILITY MONITORING index and the measuring point layout scheme；
The monitoring data in the monitoring region are obtained by the monitoring system.
Preferably, the preliminary treatment includes pretreatment, inquiry and preliminary analysis；The pretreatment includes to the monitoring
The checking of data is screened and singular value is examined and interpolation；The inquiry includes data query and Drawing of Curve；The preliminary analysis
Including alarm decision and data analysis.
Preferably, the ground temperature appraising model is expressed as：
Wherein, TmFor the mean annual cost at depth z, AsTo change amplitude temperature year at earth's surface, z is apart from road bed
Depth absolute value, auThe average thermal diffusion coefficient of the soil body, p are the vibration period when to ignore earth interior hot-fluid,It is first
Phase angle, t are the time apart from zero date,Indicate delay degree of the phase relative to earth's surface at depth z.
Preferably, the uncertain evaluation module 32 is used for：
Monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment are formed into data sequence, grade is carried out than examining to the data sequence；
The Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction is established, the dynamic grey prediction will be used as than the data sequence of inspection by grade
The reference sequences of model；Wherein, the Background Construction value of the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction is
z(1)(k)=ax(1)(k)+(1-a)x(1)(k-1), k=2,3 ..., n
Wherein a is construction range parameter, a ∈ (0,1)；
According to x(0)(n) relative error Δn(a), average relative errorWith mean square deviation ratio C0(a) it determines best
Value aopt；
According to the optimum value aoptPredicted value is obtained with the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
Preferably, the uncertain evaluation module 32 is used for：
Judge whether the predicted value meets default precision conditions；
If the predicted value is unsatisfactory for default precision conditions, according to predetermined interval to suboptimum value a 'optIt is sampled,
Successively using sampled value as the value of a in the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction, until acquiring the stable accuracy of preset value；
The predicted value is determined according to the corresponding sampled value of the stable accuracy and the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
Preferably, the control differential equation of the Temperature Field is
Wherein, λ is the coefficient of heat conduction of roadbed material, and T is temperature, and t is the time, and x, y are coordinate position.
The embodiment of the present invention by the monitoring data according to ground temperature appraising model and Jing Guo preliminary treatment satisfy the need base temperature into
The uncertain prediction of row, the monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo preliminary treatment carry out subgrade deformation not true
Qualitative forecasting can realize that uncertain appraisal procedure assesses subgrade stability；Pass through the control differential according to Temperature Field
Equation and monitoring data Jing Guo preliminary treatment are satisfied the need the prediction of being determined property of base temperature, according to the control of permafrost region deformation and stress
Equation processed and monitoring data Jing Guo preliminary treatment predict being determined property of subgrade deformation, can realize certainty appraisal procedure
Subgrade stability is assessed.The embodiment of the present invention is using certainty and the uncertain subgrade stability assessment side being combined
Method can fully assess the stability of severe cold area high ferro roadbed, improve the accuracy of subgrade stability assessment.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience of description and succinctly, only with above-mentioned each work(
Can unit, module division progress for example, in practical application, can be as needed and by above-mentioned function distribution by different
Functional unit, module are completed, i.e., the internal structure of described device are divided into different functional units or module, more than completion
The all or part of function of description.Each functional unit, module in embodiment can be integrated in a processing unit, also may be used
It, can also be above-mentioned integrated during two or more units are integrated in one unit to be that each unit physically exists alone
The form that hardware had both may be used in unit is realized, can also be realized in the form of SFU software functional unit.In addition, each function list
Member, the specific name of module are also only to facilitate mutually distinguish, the protection domain being not intended to limit this application.Above system
The specific work process of middle unit, module, can refer to corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiment, and details are not described herein.
In the above-described embodiments, it all emphasizes particularly on different fields to the description of each embodiment, is not described in detail or remembers in some embodiment
The part of load may refer to the associated description of other embodiments.
Those of ordinary skill in the art may realize that lists described in conjunction with the examples disclosed in the embodiments of the present disclosure
Member and algorithm steps can be realized with the combination of electronic hardware or computer software and electronic hardware.These functions are actually
It is implemented in hardware or software, depends on the specific application and design constraint of technical solution.Professional technician
Each specific application can be used different methods to achieve the described function, but this realization is it is not considered that exceed
The scope of the present invention.
Embodiment described above is merely illustrative of the technical solution of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although with reference to aforementioned reality
Applying example, invention is explained in detail, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that：It still can be to aforementioned each
Technical solution recorded in embodiment is modified or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features；And these are changed
Or replace, the spirit and scope for various embodiments of the present invention technical solution that it does not separate the essence of the corresponding technical solution should all
It is included within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure, which is characterized in that including：
The monitoring data in monitoring region are obtained by monitoring system, and preliminary treatment is carried out to the monitoring data；
Uncertain prediction, root are carried out according to satisfy the need base temperature of ground temperature appraising model and the monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment carry out uncertain prediction to subgrade deformation；
It is satisfied the need being determined property of base temperature according to the control differential equation of Temperature Field and the monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Prediction, the monitoring data according to permafrost region deformation with the governing equation of stress and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment carry out subgrade deformation
Deterministic forecast；The temperature boundary condition of the governing equation of the wherein described permafrost region deformation and stress is not according to the true of roadbed ground temperature
Qualitative forecasting result is adjusted；
According to the deterministic forecast of the uncertain prediction result and roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation of roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation
As a result, assessing subgrade stability.
2. severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure according to claim 1, feature
It is, the monitoring data that monitoring region is obtained by monitoring system include：
It determines STABILITY MONITORING index and measuring point layout scheme, and the monitoring region is determined by numerical simulation；
The monitoring system is established according to the STABILITY MONITORING index and the measuring point layout scheme；
The monitoring data in the monitoring region are obtained by the monitoring system.
3. severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure according to claim 1, feature
It is, the preliminary treatment includes pretreatment, inquiry and preliminary analysis；The pretreatment includes the inspection to the monitoring data
Core, screening and singular value are examined and interpolation；The inquiry includes data query and Drawing of Curve；The preliminary analysis includes alarm
Judgement and data analysis.
4. severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure according to claim 1, feature
It is, the ground temperature appraising model is expressed as：
Wherein, TmFor the mean annual cost at depth z, AsTo change amplitude temperature year at earth's surface, z is the depth apart from road bed
The absolute value of degree, auThe average thermal diffusion coefficient of the soil body, p are the vibration period when to ignore earth interior hot-fluid,For initial phase angle, t
For the time apart from zero date,Indicate delay degree of the phase relative to earth's surface at depth z.
5. severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure according to claim 1, feature
It is, the monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment do not know subgrade deformation
Property prediction include：
Monitoring data Jing Guo the preliminary treatment are formed into data sequence, grade is carried out than examining to the data sequence；
The Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction is established, the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction will be used as than the data sequence of inspection by grade
Reference sequences；Wherein, the Background Construction value of the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction is
z(1)(k)=ax(1)(k)+(1-a)x(1)(k-1), k=2,3 ..., n
Wherein a is construction range parameter, a ∈ (0,1)；
According to x(0)(n) relative error Δn(a), average relative errorWith mean square deviation ratio C0(a) optimum value a is determinedopt；
According to the optimum value aoptPredicted value is obtained with the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
6. severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula appraisal procedure according to claim 5, feature exist
In described according to the optimum value aoptPredicted value is obtained with the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
Later, further include：
Judge whether the predicted value meets default precision conditions；
If the predicted value is unsatisfactory for default precision conditions, according to predetermined interval to suboptimum value a 'optIt is sampled, successively
Using sampled value as the value of a in the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction, until acquiring the stable accuracy of preset value；
The predicted value is determined according to the corresponding sampled value of the stable accuracy and the Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction
7. severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula assessment side according to any one of claims 1 to 6
Method, which is characterized in that the control differential equation of the Temperature Field is
Wherein, λ is the coefficient of heat conduction of roadbed material, and T is temperature, and t is the time, and x, y are coordinate position.
8. a kind of severe cold area high-speed railway subgrade stability online interaction formula apparatus for evaluating, which is characterized in that including：
Acquisition module, the monitoring data for obtaining monitoring region by monitoring system, and the monitoring data are carried out preliminary
Processing；
Uncertain evaluation module satisfies the need base for the monitoring data according to ground temperature appraising model and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Temperature carries out uncertain prediction, and the monitoring data according to Grey Models of Dynamic Prediction and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment are to subgrade deformation
Carry out uncertain prediction；
Certainty evaluation module, for according to the control differential equation of Temperature Field and the monitoring data pair Jing Guo the preliminary treatment
Being determined property of roadbed ground temperature is predicted, the monitoring with the governing equation of stress and Jing Guo the preliminary treatment is deformed according to permafrost region
Data predict being determined property of subgrade deformation；The temperature boundary condition of the governing equation of the wherein described permafrost region deformation and stress
It is adjusted according to the uncertain prediction result of roadbed ground temperature；
Comprehensive assessment module, for the uncertain prediction result and roadbed ground temperature and roadbed according to roadbed ground temperature and Roadbed Deformation
The deterministic forecast of deformation is as a result, assess subgrade stability.
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| CN111254904A (en) * | 2020-01-30 | 2020-06-09 | 华东交通大学 | Railway permafrost region roadbed deformation detection and prediction system |
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| CN111395296A (en) * | 2020-02-25 | 2020-07-10 | 石家庄铁道大学 | Method and device for evaluating subgrade and ground temperature difference in frozen soil area |
| CN112528507A (en) * | 2020-12-17 | 2021-03-19 | 四川九洲北斗导航与位置服务有限公司 | Terrain structure stability prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN112528507B (en) * | 2020-12-17 | 2022-10-28 | 四川九洲北斗导航与位置服务有限公司 | Terrain structure stability prediction method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN112965378B (en) * | 2021-02-05 | 2022-02-11 | 中山大学 | High-speed railway foundation deformation self-adaptive control system and method |
| CN112965378A (en) * | 2021-02-05 | 2021-06-15 | 中山大学 | High-speed railway foundation deformation self-adaptive control system and method |
| CN113338255A (en) * | 2021-05-18 | 2021-09-03 | 中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司铁道建筑研究所 | Intelligent early warning system and method for service performance of transition section of railway road bridge in cold region |
| CN113338255B (en) * | 2021-05-18 | 2022-10-18 | 中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司铁道建筑研究所 | Intelligent early warning system for service performance of transition section of railway road bridge in cold region |
| CN114117615A (en) * | 2021-12-02 | 2022-03-01 | 中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所 | Method and device for determining performance of roadbed of highway section and processing equipment |
| CN114117615B (en) * | 2021-12-02 | 2022-09-20 | 中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所 | Method and device for determining performance of roadbed of highway section and processing equipment |
| US11847383B2 (en) | 2021-12-02 | 2023-12-19 | Institute Of Rock And Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy Of Sciences | Method for determining a performance of an unsaturated subgrade of a multi-layered expressway section and processing device thereof |
| CN114462126A (en) * | 2022-01-20 | 2022-05-10 | 西南交通大学 | Method for determining load distribution mode of train on roadbed at position of ballastless track structure seam |
| CN117574493A (en) * | 2023-11-13 | 2024-02-20 | 中国公路工程咨询集团有限公司 | Highway frozen soil range deformation identification method and system in permafrost region |
| CN117574493B (en) * | 2023-11-13 | 2024-05-28 | 中国公路工程咨询集团有限公司 | Highway frozen soil range deformation identification method and system in permafrost region |
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