CN108416530A - A kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method - Google Patents
A kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method, including：The every attribute set and weight vectors that the set of the scene and scene probability that are likely to occur after being occurred based on coal mine accident, the emergency preplan set of solution of emergent event, accident may consider after occurring, build the decision in the face of risk matrix of coal mine accident emergency response；Calculate the aggreggate utility value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes；Calculate the regret value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes；The comprehensive perception effectiveness after implementing different emergency preplans is calculated, and emergency preplan is ranked up.The present invention solves coal mine accident development evolvement, and there are a variety of scenes and the emergency preplan select permeabilities implementing scene probability may be caused different after different emergency preplan, decision scheme quickly and accurately is provided for coal mine accident emergency response risk, coal mine accident is avoided to bring more serious loss.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the technical fields of coal mine accident emergency preplan selection, it particularly relates to which a kind of coal mine is prominent
Hair event emergency response Application of risk decision method.
Background technology
In recent years, China's coal-mine accident frequently occurs, and not only gives the life security of the public property and the people of country
Significant damage is caused, while also being constituted a serious threat to ecological environment and ecological safety.Due to coal mine accident development and evolution
It faces a variety of scenes and scene development has many characteristics, such as uncertain and risk, therefore the selection of emergency preplan can be asked
Topic is attributed to a kind of risk type decision problem.And after coal mine accident occurs, how within the shortest time from multiple alternative
Optimal prediction scheme is selected in emergency preplan to cope with the accident for continuing to develop and developing, and farthest reduces accident
Caused by lose, can effectively prevent the generation of Derived Hazard and subsequent faults, it has also become safety of coal mines pass urgently to be resolved hurrily
Keyness problem.
At present about the decision-making technique of coal mine accident emergency response not by the decision information of policymaker to decision knot
When disagreement occur in uncertainty and decision information after influence and the accident generation of fruit, lead to the hesitation mould of decision information
Paste property is taken into account.
Invention content
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method.
Technical solution is as follows：
A kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method, including：
Set, solution of emergent event based on the scene and scene probability being likely to occur after coal mine accident generation are answered
The every attribute set and weight vectors that anxious prediction scheme set, accident may consider after occurring, structure coal mine accident are answered
The decision in the face of risk matrix suddenly responded；
Calculate the aggreggate utility value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes；
Calculate the regret value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes；
The comprehensive perception effectiveness after implementing different emergency preplans is calculated, and emergency preplan is ranked up.
The decision in the face of risk matrix of the structure coal mine accident emergency response, specifically builds hesitation fuzzy risk decision
Matrix, including：
The set of scene and scene probability that is likely to occur after coal mine accident occurs, solution of emergent event it is emergent
The every attribute set and weight vectors that prediction scheme set, accident may consider after occurring are described；
Decision expert body is directed to the decision for meeting different attribute degree after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes
Information is converted into hesitation fuzzy number；
Hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrix is constructed using each hesitation fuzzy number as element.
The calculating is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes before the aggreggate utility value of different attribute, also
Including：
Normalized coal mine accident emergency response decision in the face of risk matrix is constructed, it is prominent to coal mine to eliminate different physical quantities guiding principle
The influence of the hair event emergency response result of decision.
The hesitation fuzzy number is expressed as
Wherein, lij(t) it indicatesMiddle element number, i.e. decision expert opinion number；Value be closed interval [0,1] in
Real number, i.e.,ForIn the big elements of λ.
The aggreggate utility value that different attribute is directed to after different emergency preplans is implemented in the calculating under different scenes, including：
It calculates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjValue of utility
Wherein,
In formula, parameter alpha (0<α≤1) it is the constant that policymaker gives according to actual needs,WithNormalization is indicated respectively
AttributeScoring function and departure function；lij(t) normalization attribute is indicatedThe number of middle element, i.e. decision expertise
Number；ForIn the big elements of λ,Aggreggate utility functionUtilize scoring functionDeparture functionAnd ginseng
Number α codetermines hesitation fuzzy decision informationSize；ReflectionIntegral level,It is bigger, then aggreggate utilityMore
Greatly；Reflect the difference degree of decision opinion,Smaller, i.e. the difference degree of decision opinion is smaller, then aggreggate utilityIt is bigger；
Remember the set M={ 1,2 ..., m }, i ∈ M of emergency preplan quantity；Remember the set N={ 1,2 ..., n }, j ∈ N of number of attributes；Note
The set L={ 1,2 ..., l } of scene quantity, t ∈ L.
The regret value that different attribute is directed to after different emergency preplans is implemented in the calculating under different scenes, including：
In scene StEmergency preplan A is implemented in lower calculatingiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjRegret valueCalculation formula is as follows：
In formula, δ is regret theory coefficient, δ>0 and δ is bigger, then the regret theory degree of policymaker is bigger,It indicates in scene StIt is directed to attribute D downjThe best emergency preplan of implementation result it is comprehensive
Value of utility is closed,It indicates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjAggreggate utility value.
The comprehensive perception effectiveness calculated after implementing different emergency preplans, and emergency preplan is ranked up, including：
It calculates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjPerception effectivenessCalculation formula is as follows：
In formula,WithIt is illustrated respectively in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjAggreggate utility value and
Regret value；
It calculates and is implementing emergency preplan AiComprehensive perception effectiveness afterwardsCalculation formula is as follows
In formula, ptFor scene StThe probability of appearance, meets pt∈[0,1],It indicates in scene StLower reality
Apply emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjPerception effectiveness；
According to comprehensive perception effectivenessSize emergency preplan is ranked up, ifValue is bigger, then implements emergent
Prediction scheme AiEffect afterwards is better.
The present invention solves coal mine accident development evolvement there are a variety of scenes and implement can after different emergency preplan
It can lead to the emergency preplan select permeability that scene probability is different, consider the scene being likely to occur after coal mine accident occurs
The every property set weight that may be considered after occurring with scene probability, the emergency preplan of solution of emergent event, accident, passes through
The decision information that decision expert body provides is converted into hesitation fuzzy number, constructs the risk of coal mine accident emergency response
Decision matrix, then by calculating aggreggate utility value for different attribute after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes and regretting
Value calculates the comprehensive perception effectiveness after implementing each emergency preplan, to each emergency preplan according to aggreggate utility and regret value
It is ranked up, decision goes out the priority of emergency preplan, quickly and accurately provides decision for coal mine accident emergency response risk
Scheme avoids coal mine accident from bringing more serious loss.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method flow chart that present invention implementation provides.
Specific embodiment
Specific embodiments of the present invention are further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Present embodiment illustrates coal mine accident emergency response wind so that China HE saves the gas explosion accident of A coal mines as an example
The validity of dangerous decision-making technique.
A coal mines transmit explosive sound in morning one day underground, and tunnel smog is larger, and many places ventilating shaft explosion-proof door is destroyed.Through looking into
Gas explosion accident occurs for four exploiting fields, accident relates generally to two stopes and a driving face.Gas explosion
After accident occurs, A coal mines enable emergency response mechanism immediately.
Present embodiment provides a kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method as shown in Figure 1, main to wrap
Include following steps.
Step 1：Set, the reply burst thing of the scene and scene probability that are likely to occur after being occurred based on coal mine accident
The every attribute set and weight vectors that the emergency preplan set of part, accident may consider after occurring, structure coal mine burst
The decision in the face of risk matrix of event emergency response.
The specific method is as follows for the decision in the face of risk matrix of the structure coal mine accident emergency response：
First, to involved in coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method variable and set be described.Tool
Body includes：The set of scene and scene probability that coal mine accident is likely to occur after occurring, solution of emergent event it is emergent pre-
The every attribute set and weight vectors that case set, accident may consider after occurring.In the present embodiment, different emergent
Prediction scheme, which may develop the scene of accident after implementing, to be had an impact, i.e., different emergency preplans may cause to happen suddenly after implementing
The scene probability of happening and attribute change of event are different.
S={ S1,S2,…,Sl}：Coal mine accident is likely to occur the set of l kind scenes, wherein S after occurringtIndicate prominent
The t kind scenes that hair event is likely to occur after occurring remember the set L={ 1,2 ..., l }, t ∈ L of scene quantity；ptIndicate scene
StThe probability of appearance, meets pt∈ [0,1],t∈L.A={ A1,A2,…,Am}：Cope with the m of coal mine accident
Item emergency preplan set, AiIt indicates i-th emergency preplan, remembers the set M={ 1,2 ..., m }, i ∈ M of emergency preplan quantity.
In the present embodiment, it selectes in 24 hours following after coal mine accident occurs and is likely to occur 3 kinds of scene (l=
3)：The scene S of " middle and small scale explosion accident occurs "1, " occur massive explosive accident " scene S2" continuous explosion occurs
The scene S of accident "3, expert body is to the development of gas explosion accident and develops scene and carries out discriminatory analysis, and it is small to provide future 24
When interior 3 kinds of scenes probability of happening：P1=0.4, P2=0.4, P3=0.2.
Assuming that alternative emergency preplan has 3 after Gas Explosion Accidents in Coal Mines occurs, i.e.,：
A1：Emergency evacuation crowd, firedamp drainage check ventilating system, dredge tunnel, succour in tunnel and are detained personnel；
A2：In A1On the basis of, existing hidden danger disaster around inspection accident, such as because surrounding buildings are easily lighted in gas explosion
Object and timber etc., prevent open fire；
A3：In A2On the basis of, the tunnel destroyed by explosion is repaired in time, dredges the road caused by building collapsing
The problems such as obstruction.
D={ D1,D2,…,Dn}：The set for the n item attributes that coal mine accident considers after occurring, DjIndicate the jth considered
Item attribute, remembers the set N={ 1,2 ..., n } of number of attributes, j ∈ N.In the present embodiment, consider profit evaluation model and cost type two
Generic attribute specifically includes three casualties, economic loss and social influence i.e. n=3 of attribute；Assuming that preceding two attributes are into
This type attribute, i.e. attribute value are the smaller the better, and Section 3 attribute is profit evaluation model attribute, i.e. attribute value is the bigger the better, refers mainly to meet an urgent need
Positive social influence caused by after prediction scheme implementation.Decision expert body selects gas explosion accident emergency preplan in present embodiment
3 (n=3) attributes are mainly considered when selecting：" casualties D caused by 24 hours after accident occurs1", " economic loss D2" and
" social influence D3”.Wherein D1And D2For cost type attribute, attribute value is the smaller the better；D3For profit evaluation model attribute, attribute value it is more big more
It is good, refer mainly to caused positive social influence after emergency preplan is implemented.
W=(w1,w2,…,wn)T：The weight vectors for the attribute that coal mine accident considers after occurring, wjIt indicates about attribute
DjSignificance level, meet wj∈ [0,1],j∈N.Decision expert body provides according to historical data and experience
The weight vectors of attribute are w=(0.7,0.2,0.1)T。
In scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiAfter meet attribute DjDegree.In the present embodiment, it is contemplated that coal
Uncertain factor is excessive after mine accident occurs and the situation of disagreement occurs in decision expert opinion, it is assumed that decision informationFor
Hesitation fuzzy number.
Secondly, decision expert body is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes and meets different attribute degree
Decision information is converted into hesitation fuzzy number；
Decision expert group is directed to scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiAfter meet attribute DjThe decision information of degree, conversion
For hesitation fuzzy numberI.e.Wherein, lij(t) it indicates
Middle element number, i.e. decision expert opinion number；Decision informationValue be closed interval [0,1] in real number, i.e.,ForIn the big elements of λ, it is assumed that be not particularly illustratedIn element by increasing sort.
Finally, hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrix is constructed using each hesitation fuzzy number as element.
According to the definition of hesitation fuzzy number,For the set that the real number of closed interval [0,1] forms, the fuzzy wind therefore structure hesitates
Dangerous decision matrixAs shown in table 1, i ∈ M, j ∈ N, t ∈ L.In the present embodiment, decision informationIt is with essence
The hesitation fuzzy number that really value indicates is more suitable for accurate table relative to the hesitation fuzzy number indicated with interval value and Triangular Fuzzy Number
Up to decisionmaker's preference, when process problem, is more succinct reliable.
1 hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrix of table
Decision expert body is to emergency preplan { A1,A2,A3Press attribute { D1,D2,D3In 3 kinds of scene { S1,S2,S3Under into
Row assessment.After occurring due to coal mine accident there are inside various uncertain factors and decision-making organization opinion it is inconsistent
Property, it is assumed that decision information is hesitation fuzzy number, therefore obtains hesitation fuzzy risk type decision matrixSuch as
Shown in table 2.
Such asIt indicates in scene S1Under, implement emergency preplan A1After meet attribute D2Degree have 0.3 He
0.4 two kinds of situations；It indicates in scene S1Under, implement emergency preplan A2After meet attribute D1Degree have a kind of 0.3 feelings
Condition；It indicates in scene S1Under, implement emergency preplan A1After meet attribute D3Degree have 0.4,0.5 and 0.7
Three kinds of situations, the explanation of other decision informations are identical.
2 hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrix of table
Step 2：Normalized coal mine accident emergency response decision in the face of risk matrix is constructed, different physical quantities guiding principle pair is eliminated
The influence of the coal mine accident emergency response result of decision, the specific method is as follows：
Normalized coal mine accident emergency response decision in the face of risk matrix
For normalized attribute.The attribute that accident considers after occurring includes cost type attribute and profit evaluation model attribute, for cost type
Attribute need to be converted into profit evaluation model attribute, and profit evaluation model attribute is then not necessarily to be converted.
For cost type attributeThen normalize attributeCalculation formula is
For profit evaluation model attributeThen normalize attributeCalculation formula is
Normalize attribute valueThe form that embodies be
In formula,Still it is hesitation fuzzy number, lij(t) it isThe number of middle element,Middle element number does not change；Value is the real number in closed interval [0,1], i.e.,ForIn the big elements of λ；For closed interval [0,1]
In several real numbers composition set, it is assumed that be not particularly illustratedIn element by increasing sort.
For cost type attribute D in present embodiment1And D2It need to be converted into profit evaluation model attribute, specific calculating process is as follows：
Remaining cost type attribute is normalized by this method.
For profit evaluation model attribute D3It is then not necessarily to be converted, exampleRemaining profit evaluation model attribute
It is normalized by this method, therefore builds normalization hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrixSuch as table 3
It is shown.
3 normalized hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrix of table
Step 3：The aggreggate utility value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes is calculated, specifically
Method is as follows：
The every attribute that may be considered after occurring for coal mine accident, calculates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan Ai
It is directed to attribute D afterwardsjValue of utilitySpecific formula for calculation is as follows
In formula, parameter alpha (0<α≤1) it is the constant that policymaker gives according to actual needs,WithNormalization is indicated respectively
AttributeScoring function and departure function.lij(t) normalization attribute is indicatedThe number of middle element, i.e. decision expertise
Number；ForIn the big elements of λ,It is worth noting that, hereWithRelationship be equivalent in statistics
Average and variance,ReflectionThe average level of middle all elements,ReflectionThe deviation journey of middle each element and average value
Degree, the i.e. difference degree of decision opinion.
In the present embodiment, utility functionUtilize scoring functionDeparture functionIt codetermines and hesitates with parameter alpha
The size of fuzzy decision information.ReflectionIntegral level,It is bigger, then utility levelIt is bigger；Reflect decision opinion
Difference degree,Smaller, i.e. the difference degree of decision opinion is smaller, then utility levelIt is bigger；α is policymaker according to decision need
The parameter to give in advance.It is based on scoring function in many cases,It is rightSequence be it is invalid,Only considerIn
The average level of element, partial decision information easy to be lost.
The specific calculating process of value of utility is as follows
In formula, parameter alpha=0.8.Remaining normalization attributeValue of utilityThe rest may be inferred for computational methods.
Further, the weight w of the every attribute considered after coal mine accident being occurredjWith value of utilityCollected
Knot is calculated in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjAggreggate utility valueCalculation formula is as follows
In formula, wjFor about attribute DjSignificance level or weight, meet wj∈[0,1], For
In scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjValue of utility.Decision expert body provide attribute weight vectors or
Significance level is w=(0.7,0.2,0.1)T.The specific calculating process of aggreggate utility value is as follows:
The rest may be inferred for the aggreggate utility value calculating method of remaining normalization attribute, therefore builds aggreggate utility matrix, such as 4 institute of table
Show.
4 aggreggate utility matrix of table
Step 4：Calculate the regret value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes, specific method
It is as follows：
After coal mine accident occurs, influence of policymaker's Psychology and behavior to the result of decision is considered, in this embodiment party
In formula, the feature of policymaker's bounded rationality Psychology and behavior is reflected using regret theory.According to regret theory, policymaker would generally incite somebody to action
Selected scheme is compared with other schemes are selected, if select other schemes bring preferably as a result, if after policymaker can feel
Regret；If select other schemes bring it is bad as a result, if policymaker rejoice in.Since policymaker is usually risk averse type,
Then regret-(Δ u) is the concave function of monotone increasing, and (Δ u) calculation formula are as follows by R by joyful function R
R (Δ u)=1-exp (- δ Δs u)
In formula, δ is regret theory coefficient, δ>0 and δ is bigger, then the regret theory degree of policymaker is bigger, and Δ u indicates two
The effectiveness of scheme is poor.
According to regret theory, in scene StEmergency preplan A is implemented in lower calculatingiIt is directed to loss D afterwardsjRegret valueIt calculates public
Formula is as follows
In formula, δ is regret theory coefficient, δ>0 and δ is bigger, then the regret theory degree of policymaker is bigger, It indicates in scene StIt is directed to attribute D downjThe synthesis of the best emergency preplan of implementation result
Value of utility,It indicates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjAggreggate utility value.Specific calculating process is as follows
In formula,It indicates in scene S1It is directed to attribute D down1The aggreggate utility value of the best emergency preplan of implementation result,
It indicates in scene S1It is directed to attribute D down2The aggreggate utility value of the best emergency preplan of implementation result,It indicates in scene S1Under be directed to
Attribute D3The aggreggate utility value of the best emergency preplan of implementation result, then remainingComputational methods the rest may be inferred.Then regret valueSpecific calculating process is as follows
Remaining regret valueComputational methods the rest may be inferred, build regret matrix, as shown in table 5.
5 regret matrix of table
Step 5：The comprehensive perception effectiveness after implementing different emergency preplans is calculated, and emergency preplan is ranked up, specifically
Method is as follows：
The every attribute that may be considered after occurring for coal mine accident, calculates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan Ai
It is directed to attribute D afterwardsjPerception effectivenessCalculation formula is as follows
In formula,WithIt is illustrated respectively in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjAggreggate utility value and
Regret value.Specific calculating process is as follows：
The perception effectiveness of other attributesThe rest may be inferred for computational methods, structure perception utility matrix, as shown in table 6.
Table 6 perceives utility matrix
Further, consider a variety of possible scenes after accident occurs and a variety of attributes, calculate in scene StLower reality
Apply emergency preplan AiComprehensive perception effectiveness afterwardsCalculation formula is as follows
In formula, ptFor scene StThe probability of appearance, meets pt∈[0,1],It indicates in scene StLower reality
Apply emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjPerception effectiveness.
Finally, according to comprehensive perception effectivenessSize emergency preplan is ranked up, ifValue is bigger, then real
Apply emergency preplan AiEffect afterwards is better.Specific calculating process is as follows
Bigger, the better principle of emergency management and rescue effect after emergency preplan is implemented according to the comprehensive perception effectiveness of emergency preplan,
Determine being ordered as emergency preplan：A1＞ A2＞ A3, therefore emergency preplan A1The effect of implementation is best.
Therefore, it after gas explosion accident occurs for A coal mines, first has to take evacuation personnel, timely firedamp drainage and inspection logical
The emergency treatments such as wind system；Secondly existing hidden danger disaster around explosion accident is checked in time, such as because of the easy point of gas explosion
Fire Adjacent Buildings and timber etc., the generation for preventing subsequent explosion accident and continuously exploding；Last repair in time is broken because of explosion
Bad tunnel, dredging is caused by building collapsing the problems such as road block.
Finally, it should be noted that：The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations；To the greatest extent
Present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments for pipe, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that：It is still
It can modify to the technical solution recorded in previous embodiment, either which part or all technical features are carried out etc.
With replacement；And these modifications or replacements, defined by the claims in the present invention that it does not separate the essence of the corresponding technical solution
Range.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of coal mine accident emergency response Application of risk decision method, which is characterized in that including：
The set of scene and scene probability that is likely to occur after being occurred based on coal mine accident, solution of emergent event it is emergent pre-
The every attribute set and weight vectors that case set, accident may consider after occurring, structure coal mine accident is emergent to ring
The decision in the face of risk matrix answered；
Calculate the aggreggate utility value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes；
Calculate the regret value that different attribute is directed to after implementing different emergency preplans under different scenes；
The comprehensive perception effectiveness after implementing different emergency preplans is calculated, and emergency preplan is ranked up.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the risk of the structure coal mine accident emergency response is determined
Plan matrix specifically builds hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrix, including：
Set, the emergency preplan of solution of emergent event of the scene and scene probability that are likely to occur after coal mine accident occurs
The every attribute set and weight vectors that set, accident may consider after occurring are described；
It will implement the decision information for meeting different attribute degree after different emergency preplans, conversion under decision expert body difference scene
For hesitation fuzzy number；
Hesitation fuzzy risk decision matrix is constructed using each hesitation fuzzy number as element.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, different emergency preplans are implemented in the calculating under different scenes
It is directed to before the aggreggate utility value of different attribute afterwards, further includes：
Normalized coal mine accident emergency response decision in the face of risk matrix is constructed, eliminates different physical quantities guiding principle to coal mine burst thing
The influence of the part emergency response result of decision.
4. according to the method described in claim 2, it is characterized in that, the hesitation fuzzy number is expressed as
Wherein, lij(t) it indicatesMiddle element number, i.e. decision expert opinion number；Value be closed interval [0,1] in reality
Number, i.e., ForIn the big elements of λ.
5. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, different emergency preplans are implemented in the calculating under different scenes
It is directed to the aggreggate utility value of different attribute afterwards, including：
It calculates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjValue of utility
Wherein,
In formula, parameter alpha (0<α≤1) it is the constant that policymaker gives according to actual needs,WithNormalization attribute is indicated respectivelyScoring function and departure function；lij(t) normalization attribute is indicatedThe number of middle element, i.e. decision expertise
Number；ForIn the big elements of λ,Aggreggate utility functionUtilize scoring functionDeparture functionAnd parameter
α codetermines hesitation fuzzy decision informationSize；ReflectionIntegral level,It is bigger, then aggreggate utilityIt is bigger；Reflect the difference degree of decision opinion,Smaller, i.e. the difference degree of decision opinion is smaller, then aggreggate utilityIt is bigger；Note
The set M={ 1,2 ..., m } of emergency preplan quantity, i ∈ M；Remember the set N={ 1,2 ..., n }, j ∈ N of number of attributes；Remember feelings
The set L={ 1,2 ..., l } of scape quantity, t ∈ L.
6. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, different emergency preplans are implemented in the calculating under different scenes
It is directed to the regret value of different attribute afterwards, including：
In scene StEmergency preplan A is implemented in lower calculatingiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjRegret valueCalculation formula is as follows：
In formula, δ is regret theory coefficient, δ>0 and δ is bigger, then the regret theory degree of policymaker is bigger,Uj t*It indicates in scene StIt is directed to attribute D downjThe synthesis of the best emergency preplan of implementation result
Value of utility,It indicates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjAggreggate utility value.
7. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the comprehensive perception calculated after implementing different emergency preplans
Effectiveness, and emergency preplan is ranked up, including：
It calculates in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjPerception effectivenessCalculation formula is as follows：
In formula,WithIt is illustrated respectively in scene StLower implementation emergency preplan AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjAggreggate utility value and regret
Value；
It calculates and is implementing emergency preplan AiComprehensive perception effectiveness afterwardsCalculation formula is as follows
In formula, ptFor scene StThe probability of appearance, meets pt∈[0,1], It indicates in scene StIt is lower to implement to meet an urgent need
Prediction scheme AiIt is directed to attribute D afterwardsjPerception effectiveness；
According to comprehensive perception effectivenessSize emergency preplan is ranked up, ifValue is bigger, then implements emergency preplan
AiEffect afterwards is better.
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Cited By (2)
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