CN108304969A - A kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency - Google Patents
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Abstract
The development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency that the invention discloses a kind of, including：1）Planning industry land scale is predicted based on space efficiency；2）Based on space efficiency and potentiality to be exploited etc., distribution of the planned land use scale in Different Industries plate is determined；3）The planning industry land scale of every profession and trade and total planning industry land scale are predicted based on branch trade space efficiency；4）Based on the proportioning prediction to planning industry land and other lands used, exploitation section planning constructive land scale is predicted, while exploitation section planning constructive land scale is predicted based on the prediction to construction land space efficiency, and is mutually checked.Exploitation section planning industry land and branch trade land used, general planning constructive land scale are predicted and determined by above method, technical support is provided for development zone Plan and town and country construction, land management, and offers reference and refers to for related urban and rural planning, land use planning and management.
Description
Technical field
The development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency that the present invention relates to a kind of, belongs to urban and rural planning skill
Art technical field.
Background technology
As Urban Scale, have all the time is the existing method predicted about city or development zone land scale
No there are the arguements of maximum-norm, optimum macro, minimum threshold scale etc., but do not obtain science, generally acknowledge and be worth letter
The standard conclusion of clothes.Existing development zone prediction technique has focused largely on following a few classes：Consider the position of industrial area, to ring
The influence in border and industry nature etc. determine the scale of industrial area；Pass through according to requirements such as related technical indicator, production Technologies
Quota index, which calculates, determines garden scale.In addition, existing urban land or industry land scale forecast method has focused largely on：
1. the prediction of town site, have focused largely on city level meets regional land use Optimal Decision-making to land use system
The demand of system integrated forecasting；2. industry land benefit analysis methods, a method of analysis development zone industry land benefit solves
During the Transformation Development of development zone existing simple decision, the science underbraced in terms of land-use management the problem of；3. construction is native
Ground assessment system, a kind of industry land redevelopment evaluation operation system, industry land inquiry and management for global view.
Planned economy and the urban industries land scale prediction technique of Initial stages for reform and opening-up are mainly by quota allocation
What mode carried out, but after the entrance market economic development stage, the rolling of " increasing soil fertility with ground " is taken in the space development in China development zone
Development mode, this just determines that its " land scale " has multiple meaning, according to its land-use development, the differences of states such as sells,
In addition the population of industrial space, land-use structure have the characteristics that, in urban planning common first determining people different from city, region
Mouthful scale and then calculated according to land per capita index quota determines the way of Space Scale and all kinds of land used ratios at this stage often
It is unworkable, it is badly in need of providing a kind of using space efficiency as core, the associated development zone in production-ground ground scale forecast method.
Invention content
Above-mentioned in order to solve the problems, such as, the invention discloses a kind of, and the development zone planned land use based on space efficiency is advised
Mould prediction technique, specific technical solution are as follows：
A kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency, including following operating procedure：
Step 1: the prediction of exploitation section planning industry land total scale
Industry size fundamentals of forecasting index is obtained, market prediction is completed, on the basis of market prediction result, is thrown according to ground
Enter with output space efficiency index, calculate the planning industry land total scale in development zone；
Step 2: determining the planning industry land scale of Different Industries plate inside development zone
If developing inside section planning industry land there are when more than one Different Industries plate, Different Industries plate is carried out
Scale distribution；
Step 3: the industry-specific planning industry land scale forecast in development zone
By SPSS data processing tools, the principle of the original multiple correlation variable's information of extraction generalized variable reflection carries out
Principal component analysis carries out Z standardization to initial data so that and the data mean value after standardization is 0, variance 1, using
Bartlett is examined and KMO is examined, to determine that selected indices carry out principal component analysis；
Step 4: the planning construction land scale prediction based on space efficiency and planning industry land scale
By occupying the Space Scale predicted path of balance based on production, group is merged into a step and infers constructive land scale, bright
True industry land and residential estate account for after the proportionate relationship and its interrelated relationship of total construction land, establish land-use structure and ask
Solution, using unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added as the measurement index of construction land space efficiency, prediction exploitation section planning is built
If land scale.
Industry size fundamentals of forecasting index, statistics of the base values according to plan objects are obtained in the step 1
Basis and its type of interest and attribute determine, statistics basis be industry land total scale the equal horizontal data in ground or
The equal horizontal data in ground of person's constructive land scale, specifically include ground total yield Value Data, increase Value Data, equal fixed assets
Produce the equal sales revenue data of investment data and ground.
Determine that the baseline and target of space efficiency, determining for space efficiency need in the step 1 for selected index
Location average level, average national level, developed regions or state are compared based on the space efficiency level of itself
Border advanced level, and upper planning, national regulation and the development trend of itself and demand is combined to determine, usually with present situation level
It is policy baseline for basic baseline, country and local land departments standard, by growth rate recursion, uses for reference and compare and data fitting
Method determines target level, and different phase corresponds to different target systems.
Specific industry land scale forecast method is following three kinds in the step 1：
(1) recursion year by year of growth rate：By calculating history growth rate data, the spiral of the prediction of space efficiency is carried out
The benefit numerical value of recursion, even selected base year is C0, is increased in conjunction with the future space benefit predicted of measuring and calculating of history growth rate
Rate is a, it is determined that the space efficiency numerical value Cn in target time has following according to the difference of space efficiency growth rate measuring and calculating mode
Two kinds of forms of expression：
Cn=C* (1+a)n
Or Cn=C* (1+an)；
(2) reference in upper planning, existing codes and standards or case area is compared：Obtain upper planning, existing rule
The space efficiency index of model and standard or case area, according to certain regulation coefficient and plan objects space efficiency index into
Row association, is based on following functional relation：
Wherein, LiAnd LjTo be planned regional space efficiency measurement index i and j, AiAnd AjFor upper planning or case area
Space efficiency measurement index i and j, δ is regulation coefficient, and can be changed according to the functional character difference of plan objects；
(3) fitting of data：Land- use utility solution based on data is as explained variable, to going through
History data carry out regression fit, obtain explanatory variable and the incidence relation between it, and pre- by known explanatory variable numerical value
The desired value of explained variable is surveyed, regression function is expressed as：
Y=f (X1,X2,X3... ...),
It needs to handle by dimensionless, then function table there are linear relationship with explained variable if determining explanatory variable
State for：
Y=a0+a1X1+a2X2+a3X3+ ...+μ,
Wherein, Y is explained variable, i.e. land- use utility, X1、X2、X3... it is explanatory variable, anIt is adjusted for explanatory variable
Coefficient, μ are constant.
The data is historical data, cross-sectional data or panel data, is needed according to the similar of basic data
Degree is determined that this calculating process carries out specific numerical value measuring and calculating by SPSS, Eviews mathematical software tool.
If exist inside plan objects in the step 2 when more than one industry plate, need by output level with
The method of development potentiality index coefficient carries out the scale distribution of different plates, and the specific method is as follows：
Ki=a*Ai+b*Bi+ (1-a-b) Ci
Wherein, Ki indicates that i plate industry lands plan allocation proportion,
Ai indicates i plate present situation industry land ratios,
Bi indicates i plates output ratio shared in total economic output,
Ci indicates the development potentiality of i plates,
Ai, Bi, Ci are the relative values in (0,1) section, and a, b are respectively regulation coefficient.
By SPSS data processing tools, the original multiple correlation variable's letters of extraction generalized variable reflection in the step 3
The principle of breath carries out principal component analysis, and total industrial output value, original value of fixed assets, annual are chosen in the principal component analysis of all kinds of industries
Employee population, profit ratio of sales and the ratio of sales to profits and tax, and then the development of the existing segmented industry of overall merit, formation and industry
Combination between Land use area and exploded relationship.
Principal component analysis in the step 3 it is concluded that in, form the first principal component of reflection industry size advantage and anti-
Reflect the Second principal component, of industry benefit advantage：
F=α * Factor_1+ β * Factor_2
Wherein, Factor_1, Factor_2 indicate that first principal component score and Second principal component, score, i.e. scale are excellent respectively
Gesture score and benefit advantage score；F indicates comprehensive advantage score；α, β show first principal component and Second principal component, respectively
Thus variance contribution ratio just forms the advantage of scale, benefit advantage and the comprehensive advantage result of calculation and ranking of the segmented industry；
In conjunction with this conclusion, judge the relative superior or inferior situation of all kinds of industries, so by set economic output target according to
Industry type and its good and bad condition difference are decomposed, in conjunction with the empirical value of Industrial Output, you can calculate all kinds of industries
Plan that industry land scale, the formula of prediction are as follows：
Ti=G*fi/Ui
T=T0+…Ti+…Tn
Wherein：TiIndicate the planning industry land scale of i industries project period,
T indicates industry land total scale project period,
G indicates every profession and trade Gross Output project period,
Ui indicates the expection space efficiency of i industries, the i.e. output of unit land used,
Fi indicates the output of i industries expection share shared in total economic output.
By occupying the Space Scale predicted path of balance based on production in the step 4, group is merged into a step and infers that construction is used
Ground scale, wherein industry land needs are corresponding with set city planning earth criteria for classification, are divided into industrial land and service
Industry land used, on this basis, industrial land can classify further according to industrial sector class to be segmented, or is directly used set
One, two, the classification of three classes industrial land；Service trade is divided into public administration and public service with reference to urban planning and construction standard for land use
Industry, commerce services industry, then further subdivision.
The proportionate relationship for accounting for total construction land in the step 4 in clear industry land and residential estate is mutually closed with it
After connection relationship, it is as follows to establish land-use structure solution scheme：
T0(or T1)=a1*Txz+a2*Tpj+a3*Tlx
Y=C0/T0
Y=C1/T1
T1=A*C0*D*K
Wherein, T0Indicate industry land ratio,
T1Indicate residential estate ratio,
Txz indicates the present situation ratio in the system of basis,
Tpj indicates the similar regional average proportions in referential,
Tlx indicates the desired proportions in target system；
Y indicates that construction land predicts scale numerical value；
C0Indicate that industry land predicts scale numerical value；
C1Indicate that residential estate predicts scale numerical value；
A1, a2 and a3 are the corresponding regulation coefficient of sorts of systems,
A indicates the employed population quantity of unit industry land carrying, takes empirical value,
D indicates coefficient of dependent,
K indicates residential estate scale per capita,
Measuring and calculating process by basis system, referential and target system by being used as with reference to sample, in conjunction with several empirical
Industry land and residential estate are linked together and calculate the scale of planning construction land used by coefficient value.
Using unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added as the measurement index of construction land space efficiency in the step 4,
Predict development zone planning construction land scale, the wherein unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value is industry experience value, while basis
Development zone its value of different developing stage is different, and the formula that prediction calculates is：
T=a1*Txz+a2*Tpj+a3*Tlx
Wherein, T indicates the unit secondary and tertiary industries output value of planning；Txz indicates present situation unit output value (basis system)；Tpj is indicated
The similar regional average output value of present situation in referential；Tlx indicates the ideal output value or industry ideal value in target system；
Using growth rate recursion, uses for reference and compare the development mesh for predicting development zone secondary and tertiary industries value added with data fitting method
Then mark utilizes the prediction result of unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added, further predicts development zone planning construction land used
Scale, and by being checked with the planning construction land scale calculated based on planning industry land scale, it is final to determine exploitation
Section planning construction land total scale.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：
The present invention is directed to the technical barrier and demand for planned land use scale forecast in the Planning preparation of development zone, builds
Using space efficiency as core, the corresponding systematization planned land use scale forecast method in production-ground, and growth rate method, proportioning are used
Method, data fitting method, principal component analysis carry out comprehensive analysis and determination, split from more science, effectively from various dimensions visual angle
Hair area's land scale is predicted there is significant engineering technology value and social application effect.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the prediction flow chart of the method for the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
With reference to the accompanying drawings and detailed description, the present invention is furture elucidated.It should be understood that following specific implementation modes are only
For illustrating the present invention rather than limiting the scope of the invention.
In conjunction with attached drawing as it can be seen that the development zone land scale prediction based on space efficiency and the method for determination, including following step
Suddenly：
Step 1: the prediction of exploitation section planning industry land total scale
1) obtain industry size fundamentals of forecasting index, specific targets selection can according to plan objects statistics basis with
And its type of interest and attribute determine, general data include ground the gross output value, value added, fixed assets throw
Money, income from sales etc. (either the ground of industry land total scale is horizontal, can also be constructive land scale ground it is equal
It is horizontal) data.
2) baseline and target that selected index determines space efficiency are directed to.Determining for space efficiency is needed with the sky of itself
Between based on effective levels, comparison location average level, average national level, developed regions or international most advanced level,
And upper planning, national regulation and the development trend of itself and demand is combined to determine.Be usually basic baseline with present situation level,
Country is policy baseline with local land departments standard, is compared by growth rate recursion, reference determining with the methods of data fitting
Target level, and different phase corresponds to different target systems.Specific industry land scale forecast method is following three kinds：
1. the recursion year by year of growth rate.By calculating history growth rate data in recent years, the prediction of space efficiency is carried out
The benefit numerical value of spiral recursion, even selected base year is C0, in conjunction with the future space effect predicted of measuring and calculating of history growth rate
Beneficial growth rate is a, then can determine the space efficiency numerical value Cn in target time.Calculate mode generally according to space efficiency growth rate
Difference usually have following two forms of expression：
Cn=C* (1+a)n
Or Cn=C* (1+an)
2. comparing the reference in upper planning, existing codes and standards or case area.Obtain upper planning, existing specification
With standard or the space efficiency index in case area, carried out according to the space efficiency index of certain regulation coefficient and plan objects
Association is based on following functional relation：
Wherein, LiAnd LjTo be planned regional space efficiency measurement index i and j, AiAnd AjFor upper planning or case area
Space efficiency measurement index i and j, δ is regulation coefficient, and can be changed according to the functional character difference of plan objects.
3. the fitting of data.Land- use utility solution based on data is as explained variable, to going through
History data carry out regression fit, obtain explanatory variable and the incidence relation between it, and pre- by known explanatory variable numerical value
Survey the desired value of explained variable.Regression function is expressed as：
Y=f (X1,X2,X3,……)
If explanatory variable and explained variable is determined there are linear relationship (it is generally necessary to being handled by dimensionless), then letter
Number can be expressed as：
Y=a0+a1X1+a2X2+a3X3+……+μ
Wherein, Y is explained variable, i.e. land- use utility, X1、X2、X3... it is explanatory variable.
Here data can be historical data, cross-sectional data, also or panel data, need according to basic data
Similarity degree is determined that this calculating process would generally specifically be counted by the mathematical softwares such as SPSS, Eviews tool
Value measuring and calculating.
3) on the basis of the market prediction result of step 2), in conjunction with the industry development target determined in project study, foundation
Ground is put into and the space efficiencies indexs such as output, calculates the planning industry land scale in development zone.
Step 2: determining the planning industry land scale of Different Industries plate inside development zone
If being needed by the indexs such as output level and development potentiality system there are when multiple industry plates inside plan objects
Several methods carries out the scale distribution of different plates.The specific method is as follows：
Ki=a*Ai+b*Bi+ (1-a-b) Ci
Wherein, Ki：I plate industry lands plan allocation proportion
Ai：I plate present situation industry land ratios
Bi：I plates output ratio shared in total economic output
Ci：The development potentiality (usually combining industrial space suitability evaluation conclusion) of i plates
Ai, Bi, Ci are the relative value in (0,1) section, and a, b are respectively regulation coefficient.
Step 3: the industry-specific planning industry land scale forecast in development zone
1) by data processing tools such as SPSS, reflect original multiple tools as much as possible to extract less generalized variable
There is the principle of certain correlation variable's information to carry out principal component analysis, industry is usually chosen in the principal component analysis of general all kinds of industries
The indexs such as the gross output value, original value of fixed assets, annual Employee population, profit ratio of sales and ratio of sales to profits and tax (as shown in the table),
And then the development of the existing segmented industry of overall merit, form the combination between industry land total amount and exploded relationship.
The leading indicator that 1 principal component analysis of table is chosen
2) Z standardization being carried out to initial data so that the data mean value after standardization is 0, variance 1, using
Bartlett is examined and KMO is examined, and principal component analysis is appropriate for the indices for determining selected.
In analytical conclusions, first principal component and the reflection industry benefit that can mostly form main reflection industry size advantage are excellent
The Second principal component, of gesture：
F=α * Factor_1+ β * Factor_2
Wherein, Factor_1, Factor_2 indicate that first principal component score and Second principal component, score, i.e. scale are excellent respectively
Gesture score and benefit advantage score；F indicates comprehensive advantage score；α, β indicate the variance contribution ratio of two principal components respectively.Thus
The advantage of scale, benefit advantage and the comprehensive advantage result of calculation and ranking of the segmented industry can be formed.
In conjunction with this conclusion, it is possible to determine that the relative superior or inferior situation of all kinds of industries, and then can attempt set economy
Output goal is decomposed according to industry type and its good and bad condition difference, in conjunction with the empirical value of Industrial Output, you can push away
The planning industry land scale of all kinds of industries is calculated, the formula of prediction is as follows：
Ti=G*fi/Ui
T=T0+…Ti+…Tn
Wherein：Ti：Project period i industries planning industry land scale
T：Project period industry land total scale
G：Project period every profession and trade Gross Output
Ui：The expection space efficiency (i.e. the output of unit land used) of i industries
Fi：The output of i industries expection share shared in total economic output.
Step 4: the planning construction land scale prediction based on space efficiency and planning industry land scale
1) by occupying the Space Scale predicted path of balance based on production, group is merged into a step and infers constructive land scale.Its
Middle industry land needs are corresponding with set city planning earth criteria for classification as shown in the table, are divided into industrial land and service
Industry land used, on this basis, industrial land can classify further according to industrial sector class to be segmented, and can also directly be used both
Fixed one, two, the classification of three classes industrial land；Service trade be referred to urban planning and construction standard for land use be divided into public administration with
Public service enterprise, commerce services industry, then further subdivision.
The land-use style being closely related with industry development in table 3-3 present situation lands used
2) after clear industry land and residential estate account for the proportionate relationship and its interrelated relationship of total construction land,
It is as follows to establish land-use structure solution scheme：
T0(or T1)=a1*Txz+a2*Tpj+a3*Tlx
Y=C0/T0
Y=C1/T1
T1=A*C0*D*K
Wherein, T0：Industry land ratio；
T1：Residential estate ratio；
Txz：Present situation ratio (basis system)；
Tpj：Similar area average proportions (referential)；
Tlx：Desired proportions (target system)；
Y：Construction land predicts scale numerical value；
C0：Industry land predicts scale numerical value；
C1：Residential estate predicts scale numerical value；
A1, a2 and a3 are the corresponding regulation coefficient of sorts of systems.
A：The employed population quantity (empirical value) of unit industry land carrying
D：Coefficient of dependent
K：Residential estate scale per capita
Measuring and calculating process by basis system, referential and target system etc. by being used as with reference to sample, in conjunction with several empirical
Coefficient value, industry land and residential estate are linked together and calculate the scale of planning construction land used.
3) using unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added as the measurement index of construction land space efficiency, development zone is predicted
Planning construction land scale.The wherein unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value is generally industry experience value, while according to development zone
Its value of different developing stage is different, and the formula that prediction calculates is：
T=a1*Txz+a2*Tpj+a3*Tlx
Wherein, T indicates the unit secondary and tertiary industries output value of planning；Txz indicates present situation unit output value (basis system)；Tpj：Present situation
Similar area average output value (referential)；Tlx：The ideal output value or industry ideal value (target system)；
In addition, using growth rate recursion, using for reference and comparing and the methods of data fitting prediction development zone secondary and tertiary industries value added
Developing goal, then utilize unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added prediction result, further prediction exploitation section planning
Constructive land scale, and by being checked with the planning construction land scale calculated based on planning industry land scale, finally
Determine development zone planning construction land used total scale.
Illustrate the present invention with reference to specific embodiment：
The present invention will use the above-mentioned development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency, and combine certain city high
The case of new district planning industry land and planning construction land-use forecast explains technical scheme of the present invention in detail, predicts the time limit
For 2009-2030, detailed process is as follows：
1) the exploitation section planning industry land scale forecast based on space efficiency
1.1) the equal industrial land situation in ground of high and new technology industrial development zone in recent years is collected, and passes through the history of equal industrial added value in recent years
Growth rate data prediction industrial land benefit growth rate, as shown in table 1；
Certain high and new technology industrial development zone of table 1 2003-2008 indicators of economic development and prediction case
1.2) reference comparison and city's overall planning are carried out according to the equal output index in ground in upper planning, case area
Middle regulation ground output index：Reached 2,000,000,000 yuan/km to 20152, reach hundred million yuan/km of 25-30 to 20202(increased with industry
Value added calculating).According to the current level of economic development in high and new technology industrial development zone, the industrial land effect of the national city the eighties of selected part development
Beneficial situation is as reference, as shown in table 2；Realize that industrial land benefit turns over three times on the basis of existing in the recent period, mid-term is with Chicago, knob
About, four, Yokohama city reference based on the industrial land benefit of 1982-1988, it is at a specified future date industrial with Tokyo nineteen ninety
Reference based on ground benefit, adjustment high and new technology industrial development zone industrial land benefit goal prediction, as shown in table 3；
The external flourishing urban industry land- use utility of table 2 compares
3 certain high and new technology industrial development zone of table industrial added value prediction (method 2)
| Time | (hundred million yuan/km of industrial land benefit2) |
| (2015) in the recent period | 25-30 |
| Mid-term (2020) | 41-50 |
| (2030) at a specified future date | 60-80 |
1.3) it regard industrial land benefit (Y) as explained variable, the time (X of high and new technology industrial development zone1)、GDP(X2), GDP speedups
(X3), industrial added value (X4), industrial added value speedup (X5) it is used as explanatory variable, by the history number of high and new technology industrial development zone 2002-2008
According to regression fit is carried out, regression equation is obtained：
Y=4069.077-2.034*X1+0.011*X2+0.041*X3+0.156*X4-0.106*X5
1.4) the economic development overall goal being based in regression equation and planning 1.3), solution obtain industrial land effect
Benefit, as shown in table 4；
4 certain high and new technology industrial development zone of table industrial added value prediction (method 3)
1.5) high and new technology industrial development zone present situation in 2008 industrial added value be 11.21 hundred million yuan/km2, comparative rate of growth is passed year by year
It pushes away (method 1), (method is fitted to the reference (method 2) in upper planning, existing codes and standards or case area, data
3) three kinds of methods, the comprehensive scale forecast for carrying out the total land used of industry, as shown in table 5；
The equal industrial added value integrated forecasting situation in 5 certain high and new technology industrial development zone of table ground
2) distribution of industry land index is planned
2.1) the industrial sector plate of high-new section planning is three sections：The sections Shi Shan, Science and Technology City section, waterside close subregion,
By output level and the structure industry land scale distribution of development potentiality index coefficient method, following equation is obtained by calculation：
Ki=0.2*Ai+0.4*Bi+0.4Ci
Wherein, Ki：I plate industry lands plan allocation proportion
Ai：I plate present situation industry land ratios
Bi：I plates output ratio shared in total economic output
Ci：The development potentiality (usually combining industrial space suitability evaluation conclusion) of i plates
2.2) the industry land equation obtained according to step 2.1) substitutes into the corresponding data of each industry plate in high and new technology industrial development zone, most
The results are shown in Table 6 for gained industrial land allocation proportion eventually；
Certain the high and new technology industrial development zone industrial land allocation proportion prediction result of table 6
| Industry plate | The sections Shi Shan | Science and Technology City section | The sections Hu Guan | Logical peace section |
| Present situation land used accounting (%) | 84.82 | 0.33 | 12.52 | 2.33 |
| Total industrial output value accounting (%) | 86.21 | 0.35 | 11.45 | 1.99 |
| Development potentiality (land suitability evaluation) | 0.65 | 0.28 | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| Industry land plans allocation proportion (%) | 67.45 | 4.21 | 19.08 | 9.26 |
3) the Space Scale prediction based on branch trade prediction
3.1) according to the accessibility of data and operability, present case is chosen the following index of all kinds of industries in high and new technology industrial development zone and is made
For principal component analysis leading indicator：Per capita salary and welfare pay (X1), unit enterprise is averaged total industrial output value (X2) and unit
Enterprise's average profit (X3), the labor cost that reflects corresponding industry respectively is horizontal, enterprise average production scale and
Vehicle benefits situation, as shown in table 7；
7 principal component analysis index of table
| Index name | Index number |
| Per capita salary and welfare expenditure | X1 |
| Unit enterprise is averaged total industrial output value | X2 |
| Unit enterprise average profit | X3 |
3.2) by SPSS software analysis tools, high and new technology industrial development zone initial data is standardized first, then use it is main at
Divide analysis method, partitioning of total variance table and composition score coefficient matrix is obtained, as shown in table 8, table 9, wherein first principal component master
Reflect that Industrial Efficiency dominance, secondary industry mainly reflect industry size dominance.Then according to the variance of two principal components
Contribution rate obtains the formula that score is evaluated based on industrial advantage：
F=0.43*Factor1+0.36*Factor2
Construction priority degree evaluation Score Lists are finally calculated based on this, the advantage of scale, effect for elaborate division by calculation industry
The result and ranking of beneficial advantage and comprehensive advantage, as shown in table 10；
8 principal component analysis partitioning of total variance table of table
9 composition score coefficient matrix of table
10 construction priority degree of table evaluates Score Lists
3.3) it is scored according to the construction priority degree of previous step, in conjunction with industrial selection, predicts the output of industry in industry
Gross output value expection share shared in converging, as shown in table 11；
Table 11 is expected share ratio
3.4) industry land scale forecast formula is built：
Ti=G*fi/Ui
T=T0+ ... Ti+ ... Tn
Wherein：Ti：Project period i industries land scale
T：Project period industrial land total scale
G：Total industrial output value project period output
Ui：The expection output capacity (i.e. the output of unit land used) of i industries
Fi：The output of i industries expection share shared in total industrial output value.
Wherein, industry is expected output capacity reference《Shanghai Industrial land used guide》(2008), in the recent period with the recommendation of land output
Reference based on value, mid-term increase by 50% as reference with land output recommendation, and long term realizes land output on the basis of mid-term
Benefit is doubled.Numerical value is the peak of main industries reference value, and combines and plan total industrial output value obtained by step 1), and prediction is each
The land scale of class industry, ultimately form high and new technology industrial development zone it is close, in, industrial land scale at a specified future date, as shown in table 13；
13 high and new technology industrial development zone industry land scale forecast of table
4) total constructive land scale prediction based on industry land scale
4.1) in summary three kinds of industrial land predictions and verification, it is as shown in table 14 to obtain industrial land scale forecast；
14 high and new technology industrial development zone industrial land scale integrated forecasting of table
| Time | Industrial land area (km2) |
| (2015) in the recent period | 41 |
| Mid-term (2020) | 36 |
| (2030) at a specified future date | 32 |
4.2) based on present situation land use balance table in 2009, by town site with the relevant use of existing industry development
Ground is classified, wherein land used related to secondary industry is industrial land, with the relevant selection public service facility of the tertiary industry
Manageability public service facility land used in land used.Shown in specific classification chart 14；
The land-use style being closely related with industry development in 14 present situation land used of table
4.2) analysis high and new technology industrial development zone a few major class land-use structure evolutions over the years, in combination with associating close center
The development law and planning requirement of city land-use structure establish being associated with for high and new technology industrial development zone industry land and residential estate and construction land
Relationship：The principle of balance is occupied according to sustainable development, production, residential estate and industrial land should reach rational ratio；It is following high
The positioning in new district fully considers present situation industry ratio and with reference to other still using national new high-tech industry base as foothold
High and new technology industrial development zone obtains industrial land structure；High and new technology industrial development zone is gradually combined together with inner city in upper planning, therefore inner city is taken to use
Ground structure is the upper limit (industrial land is lower limit).Establish the connection of industry land, residential estate, public service region construction land
Architecture equation：
Yb-m/c/r=Sz*0.45+Gb*0.15+Gp*0.25+Gx*0.15
Y=C0/ (Yb-m)+(Yb-c)
Y=C1/Yb-r
Explanation：
Yb：Land used ratio
Yb-m：Industrial land ratio
Yb-c：Public service facility land used ratio
Yb-r：Residential estate ratio
Sz：Inner city (high and new technology industrial development zone positioning) land used ratio
Gb：National standard land used ratio
Gp：Develop plot mean
Gx：High and new technology industrial development zone present situation land used ratio (referential)
C0：Industry land predicts scale numerical value；
C1：Residential estate predicts scale numerical value；
Note：There is no the recommendations of c class lands used in national standard, therefore improve the weight of Suzhou main city zone to replace.
4.3) base 4.2) land used equation, obtain high and new technology industrial development zone land-use structure；And in conjunction with 4.1) gained industrial land scale, in advance
Total construction land area is surveyed, as shown in Table 15；
15 high and new technology industrial development zone land-use structure prediction of table and land scale
4.4) the high and new technology industrial development zone unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value (the equal benefit in ground based on constructive land scale) in 2008
For 5.75 hundred million yuan/km2, and referred to the Shanghai City unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value in 2008 as development, it is 8.5 hundred million
Member/km2, it is 10,300,000,000 yuan/km using the Tokyo unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value in 2007 as object reference2, structure
The equal effectiveness forecasting equation in secondary and tertiary industries ground：
T=a1*Txz+a2*Tpj+a3*Tlx
Explanation：
T：The equal benefit in the secondary and tertiary industries of planning ground
Txz：Present situation secondary and tertiary industries unit output value (basis system)
Txz：The secondary and tertiary industries unit output value (referential) in the similar area of present situation
Txz：Ideal secondary and tertiary industries unit output value (target system)
A1, a2, a3 are regulation coefficient, and the adjustment of different stages of development is different, as shown in table 16；
Certain the high and new technology industrial development zone unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value prediction case of table 16
4.5) composition growth rate recursion, use for reference and compare with after the methods of data fitting, predict regional two tertiary industry value addeds
Developing goal, based on the unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value obtained by 4.4), prediction obtains high and new technology industrial development zone planning construction land used rule
Mould, and checked mutually with prediction result 4.3), final high and new technology industrial development zone the year two thousand thirty planning construction land used total scale is obtained, such as table 17
It is shown.
Certain the high and new technology industrial development zone construction land total scale prediction case of table 17
The technical means disclosed in the embodiments of the present invention is not limited to the technical means disclosed in the above technical means, and further includes
By the above technical characteristic arbitrarily the formed technical solution of combination.
It is enlightenment with above-mentioned desirable embodiment according to the present invention, through the above description, relevant staff is complete
Various changes and amendments can be carried out without departing from the scope of the technological thought of the present invention' entirely.The technology of this invention
Property range is not limited to the contents of the specification, it is necessary to determine its technical scope according to right.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency, it is characterised in that walked including following operation
Suddenly：
Step 1: the prediction of exploitation section planning industry land total scale
Obtain industry size fundamentals of forecasting index, complete market prediction, on the basis of market prediction result, according to ground input and
Output space efficiency index calculates the planning industry land total scale in development zone；
Step 2: determining the planning industry land scale of Different Industries plate inside development zone
If developing inside section planning industry land there are when more than one Different Industries plate, the rule of Different Industries plate are carried out
Mould distributes；
Step 3: the industry-specific planning industry land scale forecast in development zone
By SPSS data processing tools, the principles of the original multiple correlation variable's information of extraction generalized variable reflection carry out it is main at
Analysis carries out criterion score processing to initial data, and calculation formula is：
Z=(x- μ)/σ
Wherein z is criterion score；X is a certain specific score, and μ is average, and σ is standard deviation so that the data after standardization are equal
Value is 0, variance 1, is examined using Bartlett and KMO is examined, to determine that selected indices carry out main composition point
Analysis；
Step 4: the planning construction land scale prediction based on space efficiency and planning industry land scale
By occupying the Space Scale predicted path of balance based on production, group is merged into a step and infers constructive land scale, clearly producing
Industry land used and residential estate account for after the proportionate relationship and its interrelated relationship of total construction land, establish land-use structure solution,
Using unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added as the measurement index of construction land space efficiency, prediction development zone planning construction is used
Ground scale.
2. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
It is to obtain industry size fundamentals of forecasting index in the step 1, statistics basis of the base values according to plan objects
And its type of interest and attribute determine, statistics basis is the equal horizontal data in ground of industry land total scale or builds
If the equal horizontal data in the ground of land scale, specifically include ground total yield Value Data, increase Value Data, fixed assets throw
Provide the equal sales revenue data of data and ground.
3. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
Be to determine the baseline and target of space efficiency in the step 1 for selected index, the determining of space efficiency need with
Based on the space efficiency level of itself, comparison location average level, average national level, developed regions or international first
Into level, and upper planning, national regulation and the development trend of itself and demand is combined to determine, usually using present situation level as base
Tourism background trend line, country and local land departments standard are policy baseline, and by growth rate recursion, reference is compared and data fitting method
Determine target level, and different phase corresponds to different target systems.
4. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
It is in the step 1 that specific industry land scale forecast method is following three kinds：
(1) recursion year by year of growth rate：By calculating history growth rate data, carries out the spiral of the prediction of space efficiency and pass
It pushes away, the benefit numerical value of even selected base year is C0, in conjunction with the future space benefit growth rate predicted of measuring and calculating of history growth rate
For a, it is determined that the space efficiency numerical value Cn in target time, the difference that mode is calculated according to space efficiency growth rate have following two
The kind form of expression：
Cn=C* (1+a)n
Or Cn=C* (1+an)；
(2) reference in upper planning, existing codes and standards or case area is compared：Obtain it is upper planning, existing specification and
Standard or the space efficiency index in case area, are closed according to the space efficiency index of certain regulation coefficient and plan objects
Connection is based on following functional relation：
Wherein, LiAnd LjTo be planned regional space efficiency measurement index i and j, AiAnd AjFor upper planning or case area space
Effectiveness measurement index i and j, δ is regulation coefficient, and can be changed according to the functional character difference of plan objects；
(3) fitting of data：Land- use utility solution based on data is as explained variable, to history number
According to regression fit is carried out, explanatory variable and the incidence relation between it are obtained, and pass through known explanatory variable numerical prediction quilt
The desired value of explanatory variable, regression function are expressed as：
Y=f (X1,X2,X3... ...),
It needs to handle by dimensionless, then function is expressed as there are linear relationship with explained variable if determining explanatory variable：
Y=a0+a1X1+a2X2+a3X3+ ...+μ,
Wherein, Y is explained variable, i.e. land- use utility, X1、X2、X3... it is explanatory variable, anFor explanatory variable adjustment factor, μ
For constant；
The data is historical data, cross-sectional data or panel data, needs the similarity degree according to basic data
It is determined, this calculating process carries out specific numerical value measuring and calculating by SPSS, Eviews mathematical software tool.
5. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
If be to develop in the step 2 inside section planning industry land there are when more than one Different Industries plate, need by
Output level and the method for development potentiality index coefficient carry out the scale distribution of different plates, and the specific method is as follows：
Ki=a*Ai+b*Bi+ (1-a-b) Ci
Wherein, Ki indicates that i plate industry lands plan allocation proportion,
Ai indicates i plate present situation industry land ratios,
Bi indicates i plates output ratio shared in total economic output,
Ci indicates the development potentiality of i plates,
Ai, Bi, Ci are the relative values in (0,1) section, and a, b are respectively regulation coefficient.
6. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
It is in the step 3 by SPSS data processing tools, the original multiple correlation variable's information of extraction generalized variable reflection
Principle carries out principal component analysis, and total industrial output value, original value of fixed assets, annual worker are chosen in the principal component analysis of all kinds of industries
Number, profit ratio of sales and the ratio of sales to profits and tax, and then the development of the existing segmented industry of overall merit, formation and industry land
Combination between total amount and exploded relationship.
7. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
Be principal component analysis in the step 3 it is concluded that in, formed reflection industry size advantage first principal component and reflection go
The Second principal component, of industry benefit advantage：
F=α * Factor_1+ β * Factor_2
Wherein, Factor_1, Factor_2 indicate that first principal component score and Second principal component, score, the i.e. advantage of scale obtain respectively
Divide and benefit advantage score；F indicates comprehensive advantage score；α, β show the variance of first principal component and Second principal component, respectively
Thus contribution rate just forms the advantage of scale, benefit advantage and the comprehensive advantage result of calculation and ranking of the segmented industry；
In conjunction with this conclusion, the relative superior or inferior situation of all kinds of industries is judged, and then by set economic output target according to industry
Type and its good and bad condition difference are decomposed, in conjunction with the empirical value of Industrial Output, you can calculate the planning of all kinds of industries
The formula of industry land scale, prediction is as follows：
Ti=G*fi/Ui
T=T0+…Ti+…Tn
Wherein：TiIndicate the planning industry land scale of i industries project period,
T indicates industry land total scale project period,
G indicates every profession and trade Gross Output project period,
Ui indicates the expection space efficiency of i industries, the i.e. output of unit land used,
Fi indicates the output of i industries expection share shared in total economic output.
8. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
It is in the step 4 that, by occupying the Space Scale predicted path of balance based on production, group is merged into a step and infers construction land rule
Mould, wherein industry land needs are corresponding with set city planning earth criteria for classification, are divided into industrial land and service trade is used
Ground, on this basis, industrial land can further according to industrial sector class classify segment, or directly use set one,
Two, the classification of three classes industrial land；Service trade with reference to urban planning and construction standard for land use be divided into public administration and public service enterprise,
Commerce services industry, then further subdivision.
9. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
It is in the step 4 to account for proportionate relationship and its interrelated pass of total construction land in clear industry land and residential estate
After system, it is as follows to establish land-use structure solution scheme：
T0(or T1)=a1*Txz+a2*Tpj+a3*Tlx
Y=C0/T0
Y=C1/T1
T1=A*C0*D*K
Wherein, T0Indicate industry land ratio,
T1Indicate residential estate ratio,
Txz indicates the present situation ratio in the system of basis,
Tpj indicates the similar regional average proportions in referential,
Tlx indicates the desired proportions in target system；
Y indicates that construction land predicts scale numerical value；
C0Indicate that industry land predicts scale numerical value；
C1Indicate that residential estate predicts scale numerical value；
A1, a2 and a3 are the corresponding regulation coefficient of sorts of systems,
A indicates the employed population quantity of unit industry land carrying, takes empirical value,
D indicates coefficient of dependent,
K indicates residential estate scale per capita,
Measuring and calculating process by basis system, referential and target system by being used as with reference to sample, in conjunction with several empirical coefficients
Industry land and residential estate are linked together and calculate the scale of planning construction land used by value.
10. a kind of development zone planned land use scale forecast method based on space efficiency according to claim 1, feature
It is in the step 4 using unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added as the measurement index of construction land space efficiency, prediction
Development zone planning construction land scale, wherein the unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries output value are industry experience value, while according to exploitation
Area's its value of different developing stage is different, and the formula that prediction calculates is：
T=a1*Txz+a2*Tpj+a3*Tlx
Wherein, T indicates the unit secondary and tertiary industries output value of planning；Txz indicates present situation unit output value (basis system)；Tpj indicates reference
The similar regional average output value of present situation in system；Tlx indicates the ideal output value or industry ideal value in target system；
Using growth rate recursion, uses for reference and compares the developing goal for predicting development zone secondary and tertiary industries value added with data fitting method,
Then the prediction result of unit construction land secondary and tertiary industries value added is utilized, further predicts development zone planning construction land used rule
Mould, and by being checked with the planning construction land scale calculated based on planning industry land scale, finally determine development zone
Planning construction land used total scale.
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