CN108304941A - A kind of failure prediction method based on machine learning - Google Patents

A kind of failure prediction method based on machine learning Download PDF

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CN108304941A
CN108304941A CN201711362861.4A CN201711362861A CN108304941A CN 108304941 A CN108304941 A CN 108304941A CN 201711362861 A CN201711362861 A CN 201711362861A CN 108304941 A CN108304941 A CN 108304941A
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data
feature
failure
character subset
predicted
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乔立中
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CHINA SOFTWARE AND TECHNOLOGY SERVICE Co Ltd
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CHINA SOFTWARE AND TECHNOLOGY SERVICE Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/20Administration of product repair or maintenance
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06NCOMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
    • G06N20/00Machine learning
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of failure prediction methods based on machine learning.This method is:1) the setting operating index data for acquiring object to be predicted obtain the time series data of each setting operating index;Acquire the historical failure data of the object to be predicted;2) feature extraction is carried out respectively to the data of step 1) acquisition, the feature of extraction is input in machine learning system and is trained, obtain a basic failure predication model;3) real time data for collecting the setting operating index when object operation to be predicted, carries out feature extraction to it and inputs the basis failure predication model, predicts that the object to be predicted currently whether there is failure.The present invention improves equipment safety operation efficiency, shortens maintenance time, reduces maintenance cost, extends service life of equipment, the influence generated due to certain device fails is reduced or avoided.

Description

A kind of failure prediction method based on machine learning
Technical field
The invention belongs to artificial intelligence machine learning areas, are related to a kind of maintaining method, are specially related to a kind of based on machine The failure prediction method of device study.
Background technology
Currently, in people's actual life, for system and machine dependence out of the imagination of people.Go off daily is wanted It drives, take elevator, taking high ferro or aircraft etc., also in enterprise's manufacture production, machine has liberated labourer, but these Machine or system can break down, some failures are only made troubles, and some failures are then of vital importance.
When risk is very high, need routinely to safeguard system.Because the cost of failure will be far above surface On cost.For example, high ferro customary detection daily, automobile is primary every maintenance some months, and then maintenance is primary daily for aircraft, so side Rule is to lead to the serious waste of resource, is formed excessively, or even superfluous maintenance.
Predictive maintenance can predict failure, take action in advance, or even when precognition will appear failure, can greatly save Expense brings high predictability and enhances the availability of system.Predictive maintenance avoids two kinds extremely simultaneously, maximumlly Utilize resource.It will detect exception and fault mode, early provide warning information, avoid or minimize the downtime, The attended operation of optimization cycle, to greatly improve maintenance efficiency and benefit.
Invention content
In order to improve equipment safety operation efficiency, shortening maintenance time reduces maintenance cost, extends service life of equipment, The influence generated due to certain device fails is reduced or avoided, in a certain range the plan of reasonable arrangement maintenance time, Loss reaches bottom line caused by reduce shutdown, and the present invention provides a kind of failure prediction method based on machine learning.
The technical scheme is that:
A kind of failure prediction method based on machine learning, step include:
1) the setting operating index data for acquiring object to be predicted obtain the time series number of each setting operating index According to;Acquire the historical failure data of the object to be predicted;
2) feature extraction is carried out respectively to the data of step 1) acquisition, the feature of extraction is input in machine learning system It is trained, obtains a basic failure predication model;
3) real time data for collecting setting operating index when object to be predicted operation carries out it feature extraction and defeated Enter the basis failure predication model, predicts that the object to be predicted currently whether there is failure.
Further, machine learning system carries out denoising, Feature Engineering successively to input feature vector, and training obtains a basis event Hinder prediction model and hyperparameter optimization is carried out to the basis failure predication model.
Further, the processing method of the Feature Engineering is:For each time series data, the time series is calculated The sliding window variance of data, using multiple sliding window variances of the time series data as a character subset;Then right Each character subset carries out k- mean clusters, is most there is the character subset of predictive ability;Calculate the sliding window of historical failure data Mouth variance, obtains the corresponding character subset of historical failure data.
Further, the method for calculating the sliding window variance:For a time series data { x (t) }, setting one is wide Degree is the diagnostic window of h, i.e., includes the h data by acquisition order arrangement in the diagnostic window, number when diagnostic window moment k It is according to sequence:{xk}={ x (k-j) } (j=h-1, h-2 ..., 1,0), corresponding sliding window variance It is sequence { xkSample average, nqFor the diagnosis at k moment Singular point number in window.
Further, k- mean clusters are carried out to each character subset, is most there is the method for the character subset of predictive ability For:For each character subset, 1) k object is chosen from this feature subset data space as initial cluster center;2) it counts The Euclidean distance of the data object and each cluster centre in this feature subset is calculated, pressing will be in this feature subset apart from nearest criterion Data object assign to the class corresponding to the cluster centre away from nearest neighbours;3) cluster centre is updated:To own in each classification Cluster centre of the mean value as the category corresponding to object, the value of calculating target function;4) judge cluster centre and target letter Whether several values changes, if constant, if output is as a result, 2) change, returns;Repeatedly until obtaining this feature Collect the corresponding character subset for most having predictive ability.
Further, using most there is the character subset of predictive ability to train to obtain the basic failure predication model, and it is right It carries out hyperparameter optimization processing;The basic failure predication model row is commented using the corresponding character subset of historical failure data Estimate verification, if the conclusion obtained is matched with known fault, confirms the availability of the basic failure predication model, it is otherwise right The basis failure predication model is modified.
Further, the hyper parameter of optimization includes:Iterations, distribution, activation primitive and hidden layer number.
Further, denoising is carried out successively to the feature of extraction using neural network Auto-Encoder.
Further, the feature of extraction includes the mean value of data, sliding window variance, root mean square, peak factor, kurtosis system Number and shape factor.
Further, the setting operating index includes device temperature, heat, rotary speed, displacement, procedure parameter and vibration Amount.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
Present invention is primarily intended to the times that pre- measurement equipment may break down, and then take relevant action to prevent these Failure has preferable economic and social benefit for monitoring following failure and schedule ahead maintenance time.It can not only reduce Cost, moreover it is possible to reach following effect:
1. reducing frequency of maintenance.
2. the time in the equipment that some is maintained is spent in reduction, efficiency is improved.
3. reducing maintenance cost.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the method for the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
For the ease of those skilled in the art understand that the present invention technology contents, below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings to the content of present invention into One step is illustrated.
It is basic that data are that machine learning solves the problems, such as, data selection is not right, then problem can not possibly be solved.First, number According to being divided into two parts, a part is mainly the basic fundamental parameter of equipment, operating index data and passing breaks down Primary data, design parameter are related to device temperature, heat, rotary speed, displacement, procedure parameter and vibratory output etc..Another part is to set The time series data of the above-mentioned parameter of received shipment row, this kind of data are installed additional in required prediction object (such as equipment or system) Above-mentioned two parts data are carried out feature extraction (mean value, side by sensor successively to collect the real time data of prediction object operation Difference, root mean square, peak factor, kurtosis coefficient and shape factor), data cleansing and standardized pretreatment, later by formation Data set is input in machine learning system, is passed through denoising, Feature Engineering successively and the step of hyperparameter optimization, is pushed away by intelligence Adjustment method builds basic failure predication model first using supervision and unsupervised algorithm, further excellent using nitrification enhancement Change model.Again by existing fault sample, assessment verification is carried out to prediction model, if the conclusion obtained and known fault Match, then confirm the availability of model, if the conclusion obtained has deviation, prediction model is modified, if prediction conclusion goes out It is exactly so-called poor fitting when existing high deviation, by increasing the number of input feature vector, turning down training pace, increase decision tree The parameters such as number and depth, at this moment by increasing input data amount, besides pass through regularization if instead then there is over-fitting Method makes Partial Feature weight become smaller or weight is 0, reduction model complexity.
Fig. 1 is the system frame structure figure of the present invention.It below will be with reference to the accompanying drawings and in conjunction with actual conditions, this is described in detail Invention.The training of predictive maintenance data as shown in Figure 1 and appraisal framework figure.
First, initial data is subjected to denoising, feature work successively by being input in machine learning system after pretreatment The processing of journey and hyperparameter optimization.Noise is removed with simple neural network Auto-Encoder, it is with the same data set Carry out training pattern as outputting and inputting for network, the number of parameters of network is less than the dimension of data set.This and principal component analysis Very similar, in principal component analysis, data are represented as its several principal dimensions.Since the dimension of noise will be far above often Data are advised, which can reduce noise, then by the way that there are three the Auto-encoder of hidden layer optimizations to improve removal noise effects. Data by denoising obtain character subset using the processing of Feature Engineering, first choose feature as much as possible, advanced Row dimensionality reduction, that is, useful information is extracted from primary data, by dimensionality reduction, the data set in higher dimensional space is mapped to low Dimension space data, while information is lost as few as possible, and the feature retained after dimensionality reduction is selected, finally preserve these spies Levy subset.The processing step of Feature Engineering is as follows, sliding window variance:Data sampling time sequence is { x (t) }, and setting one is wide Degree is the diagnostic window of h, i.e., includes the h data by acquisition order arrangement in window, then claim x variables the k moment diagnostic window Mouthful time series is:{xk}={ x (k-j) } (j=h-1, h-2 ..., 1,0), sample standard deviation X variables are in the estimated value of the standard deviation at k moment:σkCharacterize x variables the k moment significant condition.Wherein,It is sequence { xkSample Mean value, it is assumed that have n in the diagnostic window at k momentqA singular point.
K- mean values:1) it is directed to the character subset obtained after features described above project treatment, chooses each character subset data For k object in space as initial cluster center, each object represents a cluster centre;2) for the data pair in sample As nearest apart from them by them are assigned to apart from nearest criterion according to the Euclidean distance of they and these cluster centres Class corresponding to cluster centre (most like);3) cluster centre is updated:Mean value corresponding to all objects in each classification is made For the cluster centre of the category, the value of calculating target function;4) judge whether the value of cluster centre and object function changes, If constant, if output is as a result, 2) change, returns.Repeatedly until obtaining the character subset of optimum prediction ability.
With intelligent inference and deep neural network algorithm, fundamentals of forecasting mould is built based on the above-mentioned character subset obtained Type, and hyperparameter optimization processing is carried out to it, optimize following hyper parameter:Iterations, normal distribution, activation primitive and hidden Hide the number of layer.It in our daily carry out hyperparameter optimization work, can go to try manually, random search can also be used The parameter that method has been transferred to.One initial hyper parameter value is set first, basic model training is then carried out, by the index of model It feeds back in hyper parameter tuning mechanism, adjusts hyper parameter, continue training pattern, train repeatedly, obtain one afterwards several times Hyper parameter value optimal at present.
Finally forecasting system is verified using the optimal hyper parameter, and assists existing fault sample, to pre- Examining system carries out further assessment correction, if the conclusion obtained is matched with known fault, confirms the available of forecasting system Property, if the conclusion obtained has deviation, forecasting system is corrected.Wherein in data set, if same class is by mistake When point indicating, just will appear the distribution of unbalanced class, in order to avoid this problem, the present invention also using the character subset of generation come Machine learning model is assessed, and using precision ratio and recall ratio as measurement standard.And for accuracy rate, recall ratio and precision ratio, Preferably it is worth close to 1, trained model just has good performance.
The present invention is based on the failure prediction systems of machine learning, and input is by pretreated data to machine learning system In, the processing of denoising, Feature Engineering and hyperparameter optimization is passed sequentially through, failure predication model is obtained by intelligent inference algorithm, Model is assessed by typical fault sample and character subset, to improve the prediction model accuracy of model, to build Failure prediction system is finally input to collected equipment real-time running data in failure prediction system, realizes to equipment event The prediction of barrier.
The explanation of the preferred embodiment of the present invention contained above, this be for the technical characteristic that the present invention will be described in detail, and Be not intended to invention content being limited in concrete form described in embodiment, according to the present invention content purport carry out other Modifications and variations are also protected by this patent.The purport of the content of present invention is to be defined by the claims, rather than have embodiment Specific descriptions are defined.

Claims (10)

1. a kind of failure prediction method based on machine learning, step include:
1) the setting operating index data for acquiring object to be predicted obtain the time series data of each setting operating index;It adopts Collect the historical failure data of the object to be predicted;
2) feature extraction is carried out respectively to the data of step 1) acquisition, the feature of extraction is input in machine learning system and is carried out Training obtains a basic failure predication model;
3) real time data for collecting the setting operating index when object operation to be predicted carries out it feature extraction and inputs to be somebody's turn to do Basic failure predication model predicts that the object to be predicted currently whether there is failure.
2. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that machine learning system carries out denoising, spy successively to input feature vector Engineering is levied, training obtains a basic failure predication model and carries out hyperparameter optimization to the basis failure predication model.
3. method as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that the processing method of the Feature Engineering is:For each time Sequence data calculates the sliding window variance of the time series data, by multiple sliding window variances of the time series data As a character subset;Then k- mean clusters are carried out to each character subset, is most there is the character subset of predictive ability;Meter The sliding window variance for calculating historical failure data, obtains the corresponding character subset of historical failure data.
4. method as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that the method for calculating the sliding window variance:For the time Sequence data { x (t) }, the diagnostic window that one width of setting is h, i.e., comprising h by acquisition order arrangement in the diagnostic window Data, data sequence when diagnostic window moment k are:{xk}={ x (k-j) } (j=h-1, h-2 ..., 1,0), corresponding cunning Dynamic window variancene=h-nq- 1,It is sequence { xkSample average, nqFor k Singular point number in the diagnostic window at moment.
5. method as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that carry out k- mean clusters to each character subset, most had pre- The method of the character subset of survey ability is:For each character subset, 1) k object is chosen from this feature subset data space As initial cluster center;2) Euclidean distance of the data object and each cluster centre in this feature subset is calculated, most by distance Data object in this feature subset is assigned to the class corresponding to the cluster centre away from nearest neighbours by close criterion;3) update cluster Center:Using the mean value corresponding to all objects in each classification as the cluster centre of the category, the value of calculating target function;4) Judge whether the value of cluster centre and object function changes, if constant, if output is as a result, 2) change, returns;So Repeatedly until obtaining the corresponding character subset for most having predictive ability of this feature subset.
6. method as claimed in claim 3, which is characterized in that using most have the character subset of predictive ability train to obtain it is described Basic failure predication model, and hyperparameter optimization processing is carried out to it;Using the corresponding character subset of historical failure data to institute Basic failure predication model row assessment verification is stated, if the conclusion obtained is matched with known fault, confirms the basic failure Otherwise the availability of prediction model is modified the basic failure predication model.
7. method as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that the hyper parameter of optimization includes:Iterations, distribution, activation letter The number of number and hidden layer.
8. method as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that using neural network Auto-Encoder to the feature of extraction according to Secondary carry out denoising.
9. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the feature of extraction include the mean value of data, sliding window variance, Root mean square, peak factor, kurtosis coefficient and shape factor.
10. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the setting operating index includes device temperature, heat, turns Speed, displacement, procedure parameter and vibratory output.
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