CN108280597A - Relative risk appraisal procedure based on assembly spacecraft - Google Patents
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- CN108280597A CN108280597A CN201810176034.4A CN201810176034A CN108280597A CN 108280597 A CN108280597 A CN 108280597A CN 201810176034 A CN201810176034 A CN 201810176034A CN 108280597 A CN108280597 A CN 108280597A
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of relative risk appraisal procedures based on assembly spacecraft, include the following steps：A. it determines risk failure, is familiar with assembly spacecraft function system, the beginning factor for causing risk failure is then determined according to risk failure and spacecraft function system；B. the fault tree and event tree in assembly spacecraft task process are established；C. Relative fault tree and opposite event tree are determined according to the various configuration of assembly spacecraft；D. the risk failure in analysis assessment assembly spacecraft task process, to the importance sorting of risk failure.Relative risk appraisal procedure according to the present invention based on assembly spacecraft can overcome the problems, such as that traditional methods of risk assessment to data demand height and heavy workload, improves the accuracy rate and working efficiency of risk assessment.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to manned spacecraft field of information security technology, more particularly to one kind having independent flight based on multiple
The relative risk appraisal procedure of the in-orbit spacecrafts rendezvous composition assembly spacecraft of spacecraft of ability.
Background technology
With the fast development of manned space flight, builds multi-functional spacelab assembly spacecraft and have become boat
The new trend of its device development.Assembly spacecraft is made of multiple in-orbit spacecrafts rendezvous of the spacecraft for having independent flight performance,
A variety of in-orbit forms can be combined into, and have high re-configurability.Based on assembly spacecraft System in Small Sample Situation high reliability
The characteristics of, how to compare and quantify the risk factors of different designs scheme becomes the important bottleneck of assembly spacecraft development.
Application in the case of data deficiencies of traditional risk assessment technology can lead to the uncertainty of assessment result substantially
It improves, makes the confidence level of risk evaluation result by the meaning for querying to lose risk assessment.With traditional risk assessment skill
Art carries out risk assessment to Chinese Space station and each configurations to space station is needed individually to assess, then Evaluation knot
Fruit finds out optimal reconstructing method.Traditional methods of risk assessment requires high, heavy workload to data volume.Traditional methods of risk assessment
It is big, uncertain high that evaluation work amount is coexisted to a variety of design configurations of assembly class spacecraft.
Invention content
It is an object of the invention to solve the above problems, providing one kind can overcome traditional methods of risk assessment to want data
Seek high and heavy workload the relative risk appraisal procedure based on assembly spacecraft.
For achieving the above object, the present invention provides a kind of relative risk appraisal procedure based on assembly spacecraft,
Include the following steps：
A. it determines risk failure, assembly spacecraft function system is familiar with, then according to risk failure and spacecraft function
System determines the beginning factor for causing risk failure；
B. the fault tree and event tree in assembly spacecraft task process are established；
C. Relative fault tree and opposite event tree are determined according to the various configuration of assembly spacecraft；
D. the risk failure in analysis assessment assembly spacecraft task process, to the importance sorting of risk failure.
According to an aspect of the present invention, the risk failure is the top in the fault tree for influence assembly spacecraft safety
Event.
According to an aspect of the present invention, the beginning factor is the base in the fault tree for influence assembly spacecraft safety
Present event.
According to an aspect of the present invention, the Relative fault tree is phase possessed by the assembly spacecraft of various configuration
The only special faulty fault tree of the assembly spacecraft comprising various configuration obtained after compared with the different faults tree of top event.
According to an aspect of the present invention, the opposite event tree is phase possessed by the assembly spacecraft of various configuration
The only distinctive event of failure of assembly spacecraft comprising various configuration obtained after compared with the different event tree of top event
Event tree.
According to an aspect of the present invention, in the Step d, using relative risk rate R21To assembly spacecraft task
Risk failure is analyzed, then according to relative risk rate R21Height row from high to low is carried out to the importance of risk failure
Sequence；
Wherein, relative risk rate R21 is：
In formula：Ii (1)For relative Link Importance of the influence amount in overall risk of particular risk failure, Ci (1)And Ci (2)For difference
Two events of same top event in the risk failure of the combination spacecraft of configuration.
A scheme according to the present invention, it is according to the present invention based on the opposite of the assembly spacecraft with a variety of configurations
Methods of risk assessment can solve the problems, such as that above-mentioned heavy workload, assessment result are complicated, while make assessment result accurate, avoid
Many uncertainty.
A scheme according to the present invention, because the event of the same top event of various configuration is compared in relative risk assessment
Right, the same or analogous impact factor of many of which can divide out.So relative risk analysis and assessment result is assessed with absolute risk
As a result it compares, the uncertainty of relative risk assessment can substantially reduce.
A scheme according to the present invention, it is this with a variety of configurations and a variety of reconstruct modes for assembly spacecraft
For System in Small Sample Situation spacecraft, relative risk assesses the difference that can significantly distinguish various configuration.And emphasis event can be directed to
Barrier event carries out targetedly ground experiment, to save research fund.
A scheme according to the present invention solves space flight risk assessment field and lacks in-orbit and ground test data embarrassment
Present situation obtains quantitative risk evaluation result with relatively small number of data collection capacity.The present invention, which can effectively reduce risks, to be commented
Estimate the problem of assessment result uncertainty increases caused by data acquisition is insufficient.The present invention is directed to the spy of assembly spacecraft
Different property replaces absolutely, improving the accuracy rate and working efficiency of risk assessment with opposite.
Description of the drawings
It in order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, below will be to institute in embodiment
Attached drawing to be used is needed to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only some implementations of the present invention
Example, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, can also obtain according to these attached drawings
Obtain other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 schematically shows the flow chart of the relative risk appraisal procedure according to the present invention based on assembly spacecraft.
Specific implementation mode
The description of this specification embodiment should be combined with corresponding attached drawing, and attached drawing should be used as the one of complete specification
Part.In the accompanying drawings, the shape of embodiment or thickness can expand, and to simplify or facilitate mark.Furthermore it is respectively tied in attached drawing
The part of structure will be to describe to illustrate respectively, it is notable that attached to be not shown in figure or do not illustrated by word
Element is the form known to a person of ordinary skill in the art in technical field.
The description of embodiments herein, any reference in relation to direction and orientation are merely for convenience of describing, and cannot manage
Solution is any restrictions to the scope of the present invention.It can be related to the combination of feature below for the explanation of preferred embodiment,
These features may be individually present or combine presence, and the present invention is not defined in preferred embodiment particularly.The present invention
Range be defined by the claims.
In the present invention, the relative risk appraisal procedure based on assembly spacecraft is to be applied to have a variety of design configurations
With the high reliability System in Small Sample Situation complexity adaptive system spacecraft of a variety of reconstruct modes.Such assembly spacecraft is that had solely by multiple
Made of the in-orbit spacecrafts rendezvous of spacecraft of vertical flight performance.Such assembly spacecraft has a variety of configurations, such as in-orbit mesh
Mark spacecraft is handed over the assembly spacecraft or in-orbit passive space vehicle constituted when manned spaceship spacecrafts rendezvous with cargo ship
Assembly spacecraft constituted when can dock etc..
In the present invention, fault tree and event are established to assembly spacecraft according to the various configuration of assembly spacecraft
Tree obtains Relative fault tree and opposite event tree, to find out difference by the multiple fault trees of longitudinal comparison and multiple event trees
The weak link of design configuration.
Next, designing targetedly weak ring of the ground experiment to the design configuration shown in opposite event tree
Section is carried out for experiment.Targetedly data are carried out to the weak link of in-orbit assembly spacecraft simultaneously to acquire.It is in-orbit and
It needs to carry out importance sorting to the various weak links of spacecraft after the completion of Test Data Collecting, and to each weak ring
Direct result and indirect consequence caused by section are grouped, and harm and its serious weak link are set in subsequent reconstruct
First it should consider that other weak links can be according to the importance sorting of weak link in the premise for considering reconfiguration cost in meter
Under taken in Configuration design.
Fig. 1 schematically shows the flow chart of the relative risk appraisal procedure according to the present invention based on assembly spacecraft.
As shown in Figure 1, the relative risk appraisal procedure according to the present invention based on assembly spacecraft includes the following steps：
A. it determines risk failure, assembly spacecraft function system is familiar with, then according to risk failure and spacecraft function
System determines the beginning factor for causing risk failure；
B. the fault tree and event tree in assembly spacecraft task process are established；
C. Relative fault tree and opposite event tree are determined according to the various configuration of assembly spacecraft；
D. analysis assessment assembly spacecraft task risk failure, to the importance sorting of risk failure.
A kind of embodiment according to the present invention needs to be familiar with the whole of assembly spacecraft before carrying out risk assessment
The design of system system, operation thinking, proposition foundation, target, range and the type for understanding safety indexes are most important.In the present invention
In, the accuracy of risk evaluation result is directly determined to the familiarity of assembly spacecraft.
In the present embodiment, it is necessary first to the risk event that clear assembly spacecraft is likely encountered during task
Barrier, this risk failure are to influence the risk of the safe operation of assembly spacecraft and/or work.
Then it is determined to cause risk event according to the function system of the risk failure of above-mentioned determination and assembly spacecraft
The beginning factor of barrier.
In the present embodiment, risk failure is the top event in the fault tree for influence assembly spacecraft safety, is started
Factor is the elementary event in the fault tree for influence assembly spacecraft safety.
A kind of embodiment according to the present invention according to determining risk failure and causes the beginning factor of risk failure to be built
Fault tree and event tree in a kind of vertical assembly spacecraft task process of configuration, then resettle the group of another configuration
Fault tree and event tree in fit spacecraft task process.Have identical top event (identical above two various configuration
Risk failure or same risk event of failure) fault tree compared respectively with event tree after obtain the Relative fault in the present invention
Tree and opposite event tree.
It follows that a kind of embodiment according to the present invention, Relative fault tree is the assembly spacecraft of various configuration
The peculiar event of the only assembly spacecraft comprising various configuration that the different faults tree of possessed identical top event obtains after comparing
The fault tree of barrier.
Opposite event tree is that the different event tree of identical top event possessed by the assembly spacecraft of various configuration is compared
The event tree of the only distinctive event of failure of assembly spacecraft comprising various configuration obtained afterwards.
In the present invention, Fault Tree Analysis is led to using undesirable thing as the top event of thrashing criterion
Often event is modeled and graphically shows how system fails.Fault tree is commonly used to establish the layer of event
It is secondary, more details are provided to help to quantify for the link event in event tree.Event tree uses typically together with fault tree, table
Show the system response from primary event to result phase.The two is used in combination being capable of more complete, essence than only using one of which
Really, clearly construct and record accident sequence.Relative fault tree is that the fault tree of various configuration but same top event is compared
Include only the distinctive failure of various configuration to obtained fault tree, the Relative fault tree being built such that can make risk evaluation result
It is more intuitive, it is beneficial to identify the weak link in design process.Similarly, opposite event tree includes only the distinctive event of various configuration
Barrier event.
In fact, assembly spacecraft possesses a variety of configurations and extremely strong re-configurability, each configuration and each bay section
Independent fault tree and event tree can be established in evaluation process, therefore traditional methods of risk assessment is needed to each
Configuration carries out risk assessment.Its workload is excessive, and assessment result is complicated, so being suitble to use relative risk appraisal procedure.And it is general
Logical spacecraft only has a kind of configuration, relative risk appraisal procedure and traditional methods of risk assessment difference little.Therefore according to this
The relative risk appraisal procedure based on the assembly spacecraft with a variety of configurations of invention can solve above-mentioned heavy workload, comment
Estimate the problem of result complexity, while making assessment result accurate, avoids many uncertainties.
A kind of embodiment according to the present invention, it is determined that after Relative fault tree and event tree, assembly space flight is had a high regard for
Risk failure during business carries out analysis assessment, is then ranked up to the importance of risk failure.
In the present embodiment, it first has to carry out data acquisition before carrying out result (risk failure) and analyzing.Data are adopted
Collection always through risk assessment, may be used also by data information of the data acquisition in addition to collecting all dependent events in the present invention
The in-orbit observation of emphasis is carried out to critical event by opposite event tree, it may also be necessary to individually in opposite event tree
Harm of the individually designed ground experiment of event with the such failure of determination for assembly spacecraft, reduces risk by orientative experiment
The uncertainty of assessment.
In order to compare the risk of the same top event of various configuration, event tree assessment reference configuration and reference configuration may be used
The ratio between each functional fault.In the present embodiment, using relative risk rate R21To assembly spacecraft task risk failure into
Row analysis, then according to relative risk rate R21Height sequence from high to low is carried out to the importance of risk failure；
Wherein, relative risk rate R21 is：
In formula：Ii (1)For relative Link Importance of the influence amount in overall risk of specific effect factor, ci (1)And ci (2)For difference
Two events of the combination same top event of spacecraft of configuration.
Therefore, in the present embodiment, relative risk rate R21Each risk event is represented by 1 assembly spacecraft of configuration
Hinder influence amount for the relative Link Importance of overall risk, is multiplied by " risk failure influence amount and configuration in 2 assembly spacecraft of configuration
The relative ratios of the risk failure influence amount of 1 assembly spacecraft ".It, should when certain function can decompose each Major Systems
The probability of malfunction of function can be considered as the sum of each system fault probability.When certain function can not decompose each Major Systems,
Answer the failure rate ratio of the direct estimation function.
In the present embodiment, because the event of the same top event of various configuration is compared in relative risk assessment,
Middle many same or analogous impact factors can divide out.So relative risk analysis and assessment result and absolute risk assessment result
It compares, the uncertainty of relative risk assessment can substantially reduce.
Therefore, for this System in Small Sample Situation spacecraft with a variety of configurations and a variety of reconstruct modes of assembly spacecraft and
Speech, relative risk assess the difference that can significantly distinguish various configuration.And needle can be carried out for emphasis event of failure
To the ground experiment of property, to save research fund.
The above method according to the present invention solves space flight risk assessment field and lacks in-orbit and ground test data embarrassment
Present situation obtains quantitative risk evaluation result with relatively small number of data collection capacity.
The present invention, which can effectively reduce risks, assesses the assessment result uncertainty increasing caused by data acquisition is insufficient
Big problem.
The present invention replaces absolutely, improving the accuracy rate and work of risk assessment for the particularity of assembly spacecraft with opposite
Make efficiency.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, all essences in the present invention
With within principle, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention god.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of relative risk appraisal procedure based on assembly spacecraft, includes the following steps：
A. it determines risk failure, assembly spacecraft function system is familiar with, then according to risk failure and spacecraft function system
Determine the beginning factor for causing risk failure；
B. the fault tree and event tree in assembly spacecraft task process are established；
C. Relative fault tree and opposite event tree are determined according to the various configuration of assembly spacecraft；
D. the risk failure in analysis assessment assembly spacecraft task process, to the importance sorting of risk failure.
2. the relative risk appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on assembly spacecraft, which is characterized in that the wind
Dangerous failure is the top event in the fault tree for influence assembly spacecraft safety.
3. the relative risk appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on assembly spacecraft, which is characterized in that described to open
Beginning factor is the elementary event in the fault tree for influence assembly spacecraft safety.
4. the relative risk appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on assembly spacecraft, which is characterized in that the phase
That the different faults tree of identical top event possessed by assembly spacecraft to fault tree for various configuration obtains after comparing
Including the special faulty fault tree of the assembly spacecraft of various configuration.
5. the relative risk appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on assembly spacecraft, which is characterized in that the phase
That the different event tree of identical top event possessed by assembly spacecraft to event tree for various configuration obtains after comparing
Include the event tree of the distinctive event of failure of assembly spacecraft of various configuration.
6. the relative risk appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on assembly spacecraft, which is characterized in that described
In Step d, using relative risk rate R21Assembly spacecraft task risk failure is analyzed, then according to relative risk rate
R21Height sequence from high to low is carried out to the importance of risk failure；
Wherein, relative risk rate R21 is：
In formula：Ii (1)For relative Link Importance of the influence amount in overall risk of particular risk failure, Ci (1)And Ci (2)For various configuration
Combination spacecraft risk failure in same top event two events.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111008428A (en) * | 2019-11-29 | 2020-04-14 | 北京空间技术研制试验中心 | Importance analysis method based on fusion design of combined spacecraft |
| CN113128802A (en) * | 2019-12-30 | 2021-07-16 | 北京圣涛平试验工程技术研究院有限责任公司 | Risk control method and device for high-safety electronic system |
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| CN104317990A (en) * | 2014-10-09 | 2015-01-28 | 中国运载火箭技术研究院 | Multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks |
| CN106570337A (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2017-04-19 | 中国西安卫星测控中心 | Method for evaluating comprehensive capability of spacecraft |
| CN107563639A (en) * | 2017-08-31 | 2018-01-09 | 中国农业银行股份有限公司 | Evaluating information system risk device and method based on fault tree |
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Patent Citations (4)
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| CN104133941A (en) * | 2014-07-02 | 2014-11-05 | 方志耕 | FTF-based complex product quality loss network analysis method |
| CN104317990A (en) * | 2014-10-09 | 2015-01-28 | 中国运载火箭技术研究院 | Multi-stage task spacecraft reliability improving method based on risks |
| CN106570337A (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2017-04-19 | 中国西安卫星测控中心 | Method for evaluating comprehensive capability of spacecraft |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111008428A (en) * | 2019-11-29 | 2020-04-14 | 北京空间技术研制试验中心 | Importance analysis method based on fusion design of combined spacecraft |
| CN113128802A (en) * | 2019-12-30 | 2021-07-16 | 北京圣涛平试验工程技术研究院有限责任公司 | Risk control method and device for high-safety electronic system |
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