CN108110793A - Wind-powered electricity generation participates in the safety margin analysis method and system of black starting-up - Google Patents
Wind-powered electricity generation participates in the safety margin analysis method and system of black starting-up Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides the safety margin analysis methods and system that wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up, are related to power system security defence with recovering control technology field, according to the simulation collection of the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence of wind power plant；Simulation is collected according to wind regime severe degree and carries out wind regime division, obtains multiple analogue subsets, and calculates the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets；Calculate the power system security margin value of each analogue subset respectively, and the probability distribution for according to power system security margin value and wind regime probability distribution arranging to obtain safety margin arranges.The present invention can instruct wind-powered electricity generation safety, participate in black starting-up in an orderly manner, and then mitigate the loss had a power failure on a large scale and brought.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power system security defence black starting-up is participated in recovering control technology field more particularly to wind-powered electricity generation
Safety margin analysis method and system.
Background technology
By 2017, large-scale blackout of the 21 century loss more than ten million dollar had been over 20.In order to
Have a power failure on a large scale it is quick after generation, recover electric system in an orderly manner, work out reasonable, reliable black-start scheme in advance and necessitate.Wind
Electricity have the advantages that startup power it is small, start it is fireballing, with the continuous improvement of wind-powered electricity generation permeability, wind-powered electricity generation participation black starting-up must
The property wanted also progressively increases,, will significantly if wind-powered electricity generation can smoothly participate in black starting-up particularly in the area of some shortage water power
Accelerate black starting-up process.
Existing wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up relation technological researching, by way of improving control strategy, transformation hardware facility,
Wind turbines has been made to possess certain low voltage ride-through capability, voltage regulation capability as conventional hydropower, fired power generating unit
With frequency response ability；And pass through Digital Simulation and field test demonstrates feasibility and value that wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up, it carries
Points for attention and method and step that wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up are gone out.However, existing method lays particular emphasis on the black starting-up for maximizing wind-powered electricity generation
Value, in safe operation of power system restrict accesses wind-powered electricity generation, does not consider wind-electricity integration to black starting-up mistake as much as possible
The security of system has anything specifically to influence in journey, and especially the safety margin of system after wind-electricity integration is not analyzed, it is impossible to
Ensure wind-powered electricity generation safety, participate in black starting-up in an orderly manner so that the loss brought of having a power failure on a large scale is very huge.
The content of the invention
In view of this, it is an object of the invention to provide wind-powered electricity generation participate in black starting-up safety margin analysis method and system,
It can instruct wind-powered electricity generation safety, participate in black starting-up in an orderly manner, and then mitigate the loss had a power failure on a large scale and brought.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of wind-powered electricity generation participate in black starting-up safety margin analysis method, including：
According to the simulation collection of the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence of wind power plant；
Wind regime division is carried out to the simulation collection according to the severe degree of wind regime, multiple analogue subsets is obtained, and calculates multiple
The wind regime probability distribution row of the analogue subset；
The power system security margin value of each analogue subset is calculated respectively, and it is abundant according to the power system security
Angle value and the wind regime probability distribution arrange to obtain the probability distribution row of safety margin.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the first possible embodiment of first aspect, wherein, institute
Stating history wind power output data includes the actual wind power output data of history and historical forecast wind power output data, described according to wind-powered electricity generation
The simulation collection of the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence of field, including：
It is obtained according to the actual wind power output data of the history of wind power plant and historical forecast wind power output data in prediction error
Limit；
Multiple similar output sequences of the following wind power output sequence are selected from the actual wind power output data of the history
Row, wherein, the similar output sequence includes being less than the prediction error upper limit with the difference of the following wind power output sequence
The actual output sequence of history；
By the simulation collection of multiple similar output sequence composition following wind power output sequences.
With reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides second of possible embodiment of first aspect, wherein, institute
State history wind power output data include the actual wind power output data of history, it is described according to the severe degree of wind regime to it is described simulation collect into
Sector-style condition divides, and obtains multiple analogue subsets, and calculates the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets, including：
According to the actual wind power output data of the history of wind power plant, obtain the corresponding maximum wind of different wind regime and go out Reeb
Dynamic value scope, wherein, different wind regime correspond to different wind power output sequences；
Wind regime division is carried out to the simulation collection according to the maximum wind output undulating value scope, obtains multiple moulds
Intend subset, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets.
Second of possible embodiment with reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the third of first aspect
Possible embodiment, wherein, the power system security margin value for calculating each analogue subset respectively, including：
Calculate the corresponding power train of boundary value of the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of each analogue subset
System safety margin value, obtains the power system security margin value of each analogue subset.
The third possible embodiment with reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 4th kind of first aspect
Possible embodiment, wherein, the side for calculating the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of each analogue subset
The corresponding power system security margin value of dividing value, obtains the power system security margin value of each analogue subset, including：
Wind power output sequence according to corresponding to the boundary value of each maximum wind output undulating value scope establishes wind
Fast model, wherein, the analogue subset includes the wind power output sequence；
The power system security margin value of the analogue subset is calculated according to the Wind speed model, obtains each simulation
The power system security margin value of subset.
The 4th kind of possible embodiment with reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 5th kind of first aspect
Possible embodiment, wherein, each wind corresponding to the boundary value of the maximum wind output undulating value scope of the basis
Electric output sequence establishes Wind speed model, including：
Fluctuation is selected in the wind power output sequence corresponding to boundary value from the maximum wind output undulating value scope most
Big wind speed；
The Wind speed model is established according to the wind speed that the fluctuation is maximum.
The third possible embodiment with reference to first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the 6th kind of first aspect
Possible embodiment, wherein, the power system security margin value includes peak regulation nargin, line transmission power margin, throws and bear
Charged pressure and frequency security margin, small interference stability nargin, single wink angle stability nargin, single transient voltage and frequency shift (FS) are subjected to
Property nargin.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention also provide the safety margin analysis system that a kind of wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up, including：
Simulation collection acquisition module, for the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence according to wind power plant
Simulation collection；
Wind regime probability evaluation entity for carrying out wind regime division to the simulation collection according to the severe degree of wind regime, obtains more
A analogue subset, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets；
Safety margin computing module, for calculating the power system security margin value of each analogue subset respectively, and
The probability distribution for arranging to obtain safety margin according to the power system security margin value and the wind regime probability distribution arranges.
With reference to second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides the first possible embodiment of second aspect, wherein, institute
Stating simulation collection acquisition module includes：
Error upper limit acquiring unit is predicted, for the actual wind power output data of history and historical forecast wind according to wind power plant
Electricity goes out force data and obtains the prediction error upper limit；
Similar output retrieval unit, for selecting the following wind-powered electricity generation from the actual wind power output data of the history
Multiple similar output sequences of output sequence, wherein, the similar output sequence includes and the following wind power output sequence
Difference is less than the actual output sequence of history of the prediction error upper limit；
Simulation collection acquiring unit, for multiple similar output sequences to be formed to the mould of the following wind power output sequences
Intend collection.
With reference to second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides second of possible embodiment of second aspect, wherein, institute
Stating history wind power output data includes the actual wind power output data of history, and the wind regime probability evaluation entity includes：
Maximum wind output undulating value scope acquiring unit, for the actual wind power output number of the history according to wind power plant
According to, the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of different wind regime is obtained, wherein, different wind regime correspond to different wind power output sequences
Row；
Wind regime probability calculation unit, for being collected the simulation into sector-style according to the maximum wind output undulating value scope
Condition divides, and obtains multiple analogue subsets, and calculates the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets.
The embodiment of the present invention brings following advantageous effect：
An embodiment of the present invention provides the safety margin analysis method and system that wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up, according to wind power plant
The simulation collection of history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence；Simulation is collected according to wind regime severe degree and carries out wind regime
Division, obtains multiple analogue subsets, and calculates the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets；Each analogue subset is calculated respectively
Power system security margin value, and arrange to obtain safety margin according to power system security margin value and wind regime probability distribution
Probability distribution arranges.Wind-powered electricity generation safety can be instructed according to the probability distribution of safety margin row, participates in black starting-up in an orderly manner, and then is mitigated
It has a power failure on a large scale the loss brought.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will illustrate in the following description, also, partly become from specification
It obtains it is clear that being understood by implementing the present invention.The purpose of the present invention and other advantages are in specification, claims
And specifically noted structure is realized and obtained in attached drawing.
For the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention is enable to be clearer and more comprehensible, preferred embodiment cited below particularly, and coordinate
Appended attached drawing, is described in detail below.
Description of the drawings
It, below will be to specific in order to illustrate more clearly of the specific embodiment of the invention or technical solution of the prior art
Embodiment or attached drawing needed to be used in the description of the prior art are briefly described, it should be apparent that, in describing below
Attached drawing is some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, before not making the creative labor
It puts, can also be obtained according to these attached drawings other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is the safety margin analysis method flow chart that wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in black starting-up；
Fig. 2 is the side of the step S101 for the safety margin analysis method that wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in black starting-up
Method flow chart；
Fig. 3 is the side of the step S102 for the safety margin analysis method that wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in black starting-up
Method flow chart；
Fig. 4 is the safety margin analysis system schematic diagram that wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in black starting-up；
Fig. 5 is the safety margin analysis system schematic diagram that another wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in black starting-up.
Icon：
10- simulation collection acquisition modules；20- wind regime probability evaluation entities；30- safety margin computing modules；11- predicts error
Upper limit acquiring unit；The similar output retrieval units of 12-；13- simulation collection acquiring units；21- maximum wind output undulating values
Scope acquiring unit；22- wind regime probability calculation units.
Specific embodiment
To make the purpose, technical scheme and advantage of the embodiment of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with attached drawing to the present invention
Technical solution be clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment be part of the embodiment of the present invention rather than
Whole embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are not making creative work premise
Lower all other embodiments obtained, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
After power system blackstart refers to whole system because of failure stoppage in transit, the help of other network is not depended on, by system
The startup of unit with self-startup ability drives the unit of non self starting, progressively expands the recovery scope of electric system,
Finally realize the recovery of entire electric system.
At present, existing wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up relation technological researching, does not consider wind-electricity integration to being during black starting-up
The security of system has anything specifically to influence, and especially the safety margin of system after wind-electricity integration is not analyzed, it is impossible to ensure wind
Electric safety participates in black starting-up in an orderly manner so that the loss brought of having a power failure on a large scale is very huge.Based on this, the embodiment of the present invention provides
A kind of wind-powered electricity generation participate in black starting-up safety margin analysis method and system, can instruct wind-powered electricity generation safety, participate in black open in an orderly manner
It is dynamic, and then mitigate the loss had a power failure on a large scale and brought.
For ease of understanding the present embodiment, black starting-up is participated in a kind of wind-powered electricity generation disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention first
Safety margin analysis method describe in detail.
Embodiment one：
Fig. 1 shows that wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in the safety margin analysis method flow chart of black starting-up.
As shown in Figure 1, the safety margin analysis method that a kind of wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up is present embodiments provided, including following
Step：
Step S101, according to the simulation collection of the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence of wind power plant；
In this step, following wind power output sequence is the wind power output data in the following certain time that wind power plant reports,
Following wind power output series model based on historical analogy method for generating random wind power output sequence, makes the safety of solution
Nargin can count and the uncertainty of wind-powered electricity generation.
Step S102 collects simulation according to the severe degree of wind regime and carries out wind regime division, obtains multiple analogue subsets, and calculate
The wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets；
The present embodiment is using historical analogy method as theoretical foundation, using security margin index system as solution amount, with probability distribution
It is classified as the appearance form of result.It, can be with the probability of analysis system safety margin by flexibly dividing following wind power output simulation collection
Structure.Bigger thinner, the safety margin Probability Structures acquired for representing division of division number m of following wind power output simulation collection
Finer, when m tends to infinitely great, the probability distribution row of safety margin have translated into probability distribution.
Step S103 calculates the power system security margin value of each analogue subset respectively, and according to power system security
Margin value and wind regime probability distribution arrange to obtain the probability distribution row of safety margin.
The probability distribution row of random variable of continuous type are the popularizations of the probability distribution row concept of discrete random variable, use
In probability of the characterization stochastic variable in some " care sections ".When the value of certain random variable of continuous type is not easy to detect,
Probability density function is just difficult to ask for.For this purpose, represent that the probability distribution of random variable of continuous type has using probability distribution row
Important meaning.Probability distribution row only show researcher's content of concern, and random change is equally showed rather than probability density function
Amount all values may, therefore solve probability distribution arrange more than solve probability density function it is easy, this just for we analyze again
The probability distribution of miscellaneous random variable of continuous type provides shortcut.
Specifically, history wind power output data include the actual wind power output data of history and historical forecast wind power output number
According to as shown in Fig. 2, step S101 comprises the following steps：
Step S201 is obtained pre- according to the actual wind power output data of the history of wind power plant and historical forecast wind power output data
Survey the error upper limit；
Step S202 selects multiple similar output sequences of following wind power output sequence from the actual wind power output data of history
Row, wherein, similar output sequence include with the difference of following wind power output sequence be less than the prediction error upper limit history it is actual go out
Power sequence；
Step S203, by the simulation collection of multiple similar following wind power output sequences of output sequence composition.
First, according to the history of certain wind power plant power generation actual power data and historical forecast power data, its power is obtained
It predicts the probability distribution that error is obeyed, and then obtains the wind power prediction error upper limit Δ P under certain confidence levelwmax；
It secondly, will be with predicting output sequence Pw=(Pw1,Pw2,…,Pwn) difference be less than Δ PwmaxThe actual output sequence of history
Row are defined as PwThe similar output sequence of history, from history generate electricity actual power data in select PwSimilar output sequence, composition
The similar output sequence sets of historyIn this, as the simulation collection of following wind power output sequence.
Further, history wind power output data include the actual wind power output data of history, as shown in figure 3, step S102
Comprise the following steps：
Step S301 according to the actual wind power output data of the history of wind power plant, obtains the corresponding maximum wind of different wind regime
Output undulating value scope, wherein, different wind regime correspond to different wind power output sequences；
Step S302 collects simulation according to maximum wind output undulating value scope and carries out wind regime division, obtains multiple simulations
Subset, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets.
Specifically, the forming process of the probability distribution row of wind regime superiority-inferiority is as follows：
(1) the maximum wind output difference P of wind power plant adjacent minute under rated capacity is usedxTo judge the severe of certain wind regime
Degree according to the history of certain wind power plant power generation actual power data, divides the corresponding P of excellent, good, bad windxIt is worth scope；
(2) according to the corresponding P of excellent, good, bad windxValue scope divides Ωw, obtain following wind regime and belong to excellent, good, bad wind
Probability, and then obtain the probability distribution row of wind regime superiority-inferiority.
Further, the power system security margin value of each analogue subset is calculated in step S103 respectively, can be passed through
In the following manner is realized：
Calculate the corresponding electric system peace of boundary value of the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of each analogue subset
Full margin value obtains the power system security margin value of each analogue subset.Specifically include following steps：
S1, the wind power output sequence according to corresponding to the boundary value of each maximum wind output undulating value scope establish wind speed
Model, wherein, analogue subset includes wind power output sequence；
Wind speed model establishes process：The wind power output sequence corresponding to boundary value from maximum wind output undulating value scope
The maximum wind speed of fluctuation is selected in row；Wind speed model is established according to the wind speed that fluctuation is maximum.
S2 according to the power system security margin value of Wind speed model calculating simulation subset, obtains the electricity of each analogue subset
Force system safety margin value.
In step S103, solving system obtains safety in the power system security margin value being concerned about at interval border
The probability distribution row of nargin.Because of the severe degree and P of wind regimexPositive correlation, and it is negatively correlated with safety margin, therefore can be according to wind regime
The probability distribution of superiority-inferiority arranges to determine the probability distribution row of safety margin.According to the corresponding P of excellent, good, bad windxIt is worth the side of scope
Dividing value pxi, solve pxiCorresponding systematic electricity system safety margin value msi, and then determined by the probability of excellent, good, bad wind appearance
The probability distribution row of safety margin.
Specifically, p is solvedxiCorresponding systematic electricity system safety margin value msiProcess it is as follows：
(1)pxiCorrespond to Ωwi, from ΩwiIn choose the maximum wind regime of fluctuation, then to choose from the wind regime fluctuation most severe
2min wind speed, Wind speed model is established with this；
(2) electric network data file is established according to the current state parameter of system, by setting circuit list wink failure, performed temporary
State stability Calculation asks for Mθ、Mvd、Mfd；It is set by black-start scheme and throws load operation, asked by performing multilayer output feedback network
Take Mp、ML、Mvs、Mfs；It calculates to ask for M by performing small interference stabilityz.The electric power of minimum value, that is, system in this 8 nargin
System safety margin value.
In the present embodiment, power system security margin value includes peak regulation nargin, line transmission power margin, throws load voltage
It is abundant with frequency security margin, small interference stability nargin, single wink angle stability nargin, single transient voltage and frequency shift (FS) acceptability
Degree.
Evaluate wind-powered electricity generation participate in black starting-up during security of system margin index system, be in each power system security about
It is established on the basis of beam, for reflecting that the black starting-up period accesses security of system after certain capacity wind-powered electricity generation.First, index body
System is set forth upper limit constraint and the margin definition of lower limit is advised using the form of ratios unified definition nargin of " distance/limit value "
Then；Secondly, according to the constraint set for needing to meet during electric system normal operation, peak regulation nargin M is definedp, line transmission power
Nargin ML, throw load voltage safety margin Mvs, throw LOAD FREQUENCY safety margin MfsWith small interference stability nargin MzThis 5 indexs；
Finally, the constraint set met is needed when being run according to electric power system fault, defines single wink angle stability nargin Mθ, single transient voltage
The acceptable nargin M of offsetvdWith single wink frequency shift (FS) acceptability nargin MfdThis 3 indexs.The wind power integration amount of safety, should
All it is positive number when ensureing 8 nargin in safety margin appraisement system.
Wherein, the calculation formula of this 8 margin index is as follows：
Table 1 is each margin value and the meaning of each variable in above-mentioned formula (1) and formula (2).
The meaning of 1 each margin value of table and each variable
For convenience of description, this paper uniform variables definition rule：Subscript m ax and min represent the system requirements upper limit of certain variable
Value and lower limiting value, subscript max and min represent maximum and minimum value of the variable within the period during system operation.
The safety margin analysis method of the wind-powered electricity generation participation black starting-up of the present embodiment is described in detail with specific example below.
When one timing of wind power integration capacity, the power system security margin value under set wind regime is one and determines value,
Power system security margin value under random wind regime is a random value, it is necessary to describe its Probability Structure with probability distribution row.
With t2Exemplified by moment access wind-powered electricity generation, it is assumed that t2The following 30min wind speed and output that moment wind power plant W18 is reported beWithThen
The process for solving the probability distribution of safety margin is as follows：
(1) according to the history of wind power plant W18 it is actual go out force data and historical forecast go out force data, be obtained in its 30min
The probability distribution for prediction error obedience of contributing, and then obtain the Δ P under certain confidence levelwmax.In view of the emphasis of research, it is assumed that
W18, which contributes, predicts error perunit value Normal Distribution N (0,0.03), and a reference value of perunit value is the installed capacity of wind power plant
120MW.It is 0.999 to take confidence level, then can acquire Δ PwmaxFor 11.88MW.
(2) according to Δ Pwmax, from history it is actual go out force data in filter outThe similar output sequence sets of historyIt is first
First using every 30 continuous capacity values as 1 output sequence, ask history output sequence withBetween difference；Then with Δ PwmaxFor
Difference upper limit has finally chosen 137 from 132257 history output sequencesThe similar output sequence of history, with this group
Into
(3) the boundary point p for being concerned about section is setxi, divisionObtain PxProbability distribution row.PxIt is wind power plant specified
The maximum wind output difference of adjacent minute under capacity weighs solving speed and analysis precision, and it is 3 that can take m, boundary point vector
pxValue it is more flexible, such as take px=[0,12,17,23] can then incite somebody to actionIt is divided into following 3 set：
For convenience of describing and understand, above 3 set are referred to as by the present embodiment successively：Excellent wind set, good wind set and bad
Wind set, then the number that this 3 set are subdivided into the similar output sequence of 137 history is respectively 64,47,26, therefore
QuiltThe probability covered is respectively 0.47,0.34,0.19.
(4) solving system is in the power system security margin value being concerned about at interval border, and then obtains the general of safety margin
Rate Distribution of A Sequence.With px2Seek ms2Exemplified by, first fromIn choose worst wind regime (i.e. PxMaximum output sequence).If the wind
2min fluctuations in wind speed worst to systematic influence is the fluctuations in wind speed between 5.49m/s and 6.65m/s in condition, then is built with this
Vertical Wind speed model, fills in the Wind speed model GV cards of GE Wind turbines, and emulation solves each security margin index.If wind power integration capacity
PaFor 60MW, then t can be finally acquired2The safety margin probability distribution row at moment are as shown in table 2.
2 P of tableaDuring=60MW, t2The probability distribution row of moment safety margin
Tab.4Probability distribution column of security margin at time
t2while Pa=60MW
As shown in Table 2, after the randomness of meter and wind regime, safety margin determines that value becomes for a probability distribution by one
Row.Thus probability distribution row are it will be clear that following wind regime belongs to excellent wind, good wind, the probability of bad wind and in this 3 class wind
Systematic electricity system safety margin value scope under condition.Preceding to have addressed, the content that probability distribution row show " is concerned about by what is selected
What section " determined, application is more flexible.
Embodiment two：
Fig. 4 shows that wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in the safety margin analysis system schematic diagram of black starting-up.
As shown in figure 4, a kind of wind-powered electricity generation provided in this embodiment participates in the safety margin analysis system of black starting-up, including simulation
Collect acquisition module 10, wind regime probability evaluation entity 20 and safety margin computing module 30；
Simulation collection acquisition module 10, for the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence according to wind power plant
Simulation collection；
Wind regime probability evaluation entity 20 carries out wind regime division for collecting according to the severe degree of wind regime to simulation, obtains multiple
Analogue subset, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets；
Safety margin computing module 30, for calculating the power system security margin value of each analogue subset, and root respectively
The probability distribution for arranging to obtain safety margin according to power system security margin value and wind regime probability distribution arranges.
Further, as shown in figure 5, simulation collection acquisition module 10 includes：
Error upper limit acquiring unit 11 is predicted, for the actual wind power output data of history and historical forecast according to wind power plant
Wind power output data obtain the prediction error upper limit；
Similar output retrieval unit 12, for selecting following wind power output sequence from the actual wind power output data of history
Multiple similar output sequences of row, wherein, similar output sequence includes being less than prediction mistake with the difference of following wind power output sequence
The actual output sequence of history of the poor upper limit；
Simulation collection acquiring unit 13, for multiple similar output sequences to be formed to the simulation collection of following wind power output sequences.
Further, history wind power output data include the actual wind power output data of history, wind regime probability evaluation entity 20
Including：
Maximum wind output undulating value scope acquiring unit 21, for the actual wind power output number of history according to wind power plant
According to, the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of different wind regime is obtained, wherein, different wind regime correspond to different wind power output sequences
Row；
Wind regime probability calculation unit 22 carries out wind regime stroke for collecting according to maximum wind output undulating value scope to simulation
Point, multiple analogue subsets are obtained, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets.
Wind-powered electricity generation provided in an embodiment of the present invention participates in the safety margin analysis system of black starting-up, is provided with above-described embodiment
The safety margin analysis method that wind-powered electricity generation participates in black starting-up has identical technical characteristic, is asked so can also solve identical technology
Topic, reaches identical technique effect.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of electronic equipment, and including memory, processor, being stored in memory can locate
The computer program run on reason device, processor realize that the wind-powered electricity generation that above-described embodiment provides participates in black open when performing computer program
The step of dynamic safety margin analysis method.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of computer readable storage medium, and meter is stored on computer readable storage medium
Calculation machine program, the wind-powered electricity generation that above-described embodiment is performed when computer program is run by processor participate in the safety margin analysis of black starting-up
The step of method.
In the description of the present invention, it is necessary to which explanation, term " first ", " second ", " the 3rd " are only used for description purpose,
And it is not intended that instruction or hint relative importance.
What the embodiment of the present invention was provided carries out the computer program that wind-powered electricity generation participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up
Product, the computer readable storage medium for the non-volatile program code that can perform including storing processor, described program generation
The instruction that code includes can be used for performing the method described in previous methods embodiment, and specific implementation can be found in embodiment of the method,
This is repeated no more.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the system of foregoing description,
The specific work process of device and unit may be referred to the corresponding process in preceding method embodiment, and details are not described herein.
In several embodiments provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed systems, devices and methods, it can be with
It realizes by another way.The apparatus embodiments described above are merely exemplary, for example, the division of the unit,
Only a kind of division of logic function, can there is other dividing mode in actual implementation, in another example, multiple units or component can
To combine or be desirably integrated into another system or some features can be ignored or does not perform.It is another, it is shown or beg for
The mutual coupling, direct-coupling or communication connection of opinion can be by some communication interfaces, device or unit it is indirect
Coupling or communication connection can be electrical, machinery or other forms.
The unit illustrated as separating component may or may not be physically separate, be shown as unit
The component shown may or may not be physical location, you can be located at a place or can also be distributed to multiple
In network element.Some or all of unit therein can be selected to realize the mesh of this embodiment scheme according to the actual needs
's.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention can be integrated in a processing unit, it can also
That unit is individually physically present, can also two or more units integrate in a unit.
If the function is realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and is independent production marketing or in use, can be with
It is stored in the non-volatile computer read/write memory medium that a processor can perform.Based on such understanding, the present invention
The part that substantially contributes in other words to the prior art of technical solution or the part of the technical solution can be with software
The form of product embodies, which is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions use so that
One computer equipment (can be personal computer, server or the network equipment etc.) performs each embodiment institute of the present invention
State all or part of step of method.And foregoing storage medium includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-
Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic disc or CD etc. are various can be with
Store the medium of program code.
Finally it should be noted that：Embodiment described above is only the specific embodiment of the present invention, to illustrate the present invention
Technical solution, rather than its limitations, protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, although with reference to the foregoing embodiments to this hair
It is bright to be described in detail, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that：Any one skilled in the art
In the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, can still modify to the technical solution recorded in previous embodiment or can be light
It is readily conceivable that variation or equivalent substitution is carried out to which part technical characteristic；And these modifications, variation or replacement, do not make
The essence of appropriate technical solution departs from the spirit and scope of technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention, should all cover the protection in the present invention
Within the scope of.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be based on the protection scope of the described claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of wind-powered electricity generation participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up, which is characterized in that including：
According to the simulation collection of the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence of wind power plant；
Wind regime division is carried out to the simulation collection according to the severe degree of wind regime, multiple analogue subsets is obtained, and calculates multiple described
The wind regime probability distribution row of analogue subset；
The power system security margin value of each analogue subset is calculated respectively, and according to the power system security margin value
And the wind regime probability distribution arranges to obtain the probability distribution row of safety margin.
2. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 1 participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up, which is characterized in that the history
Wind power output data include the actual wind power output data of history and historical forecast wind power output data, the going through according to wind power plant
The simulation collection of history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence, including：
The prediction error upper limit is obtained according to the actual wind power output data of the history of wind power plant and historical forecast wind power output data；
Multiple similar output sequences of the following wind power output sequence are selected from the actual wind power output data of the history,
In, the similar output sequence includes the history for being less than the prediction error upper limit with the difference of the following wind power output sequence
Actual output sequence；
By the simulation collection of multiple similar output sequence composition following wind power output sequences.
3. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 1 participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up, which is characterized in that the history
Wind power output data include the actual wind power output data of history, described to carry out wind regime to the simulation collection according to the severe degree of wind regime
Division, obtains multiple analogue subsets, and calculates the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets, including：
According to the actual wind power output data of the history of wind power plant, the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value of different wind regime is obtained
Scope, wherein, different wind regime correspond to different wind power output sequences；
Wind regime division is carried out to the simulation collection according to the maximum wind output undulating value scope, obtains multiple analog submodules
Collection, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets.
4. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 3 participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up, which is characterized in that the difference
The power system security margin value of each analogue subset is calculated, including：
Calculate the corresponding electric system peace of boundary value of the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of each analogue subset
Full margin value obtains the power system security margin value of each analogue subset.
5. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 4 participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up, which is characterized in that the calculating
Each corresponding power system security margin value of boundary value of the corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of the analogue subset,
The power system security margin value of each analogue subset is obtained, including：
Wind power output sequence according to corresponding to the boundary value of each maximum wind output undulating value scope establishes wind speed mould
Type, wherein, the analogue subset includes the wind power output sequence；
The power system security margin value of the analogue subset is calculated according to the Wind speed model, obtains each analogue subset
Power system security margin value.
6. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 5 participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up, which is characterized in that the basis
Wind power output sequence corresponding to the boundary value of each maximum wind output undulating value scope establishes Wind speed model, including：
Fluctuation maximum is selected in the wind power output sequence corresponding to boundary value from the maximum wind output undulating value scope
Wind speed；
The Wind speed model is established according to the wind speed that the fluctuation is maximum.
7. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 4 participates in the safety margin analysis method of black starting-up, which is characterized in that the electric power
System safety margin value includes peak regulation nargin, line transmission power margin, throwing load voltage and frequency security margin, small interference surely
Determine nargin, single wink angle stability nargin, single transient voltage and frequency shift (FS) acceptability nargin.
8. a kind of wind-powered electricity generation participates in the safety margin analysis system of black starting-up, which is characterized in that including：
Simulation collection acquisition module, for the simulation of the history wind power output data acquisition future wind power output sequence according to wind power plant
Collection；
Wind regime probability evaluation entity for carrying out wind regime division to the simulation collection according to the severe degree of wind regime, obtains multiple moulds
Intend subset, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets；
Safety margin computing module, for calculating the power system security margin value of each analogue subset respectively, and according to
The power system security margin value and the wind regime probability distribution arrange to obtain the probability distribution row of safety margin.
9. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 8 participates in the safety margin analysis system of black starting-up, which is characterized in that the simulation
Collection acquisition module includes：
It predicts error upper limit acquiring unit, goes out for the actual wind power output data of history according to wind power plant and historical forecast wind-powered electricity generation
Force data obtains the prediction error upper limit；
Similar output retrieval unit, for selecting the following wind power output from the actual wind power output data of the history
Multiple similar output sequences of sequence, wherein, the similar output sequence includes the difference with the following wind power output sequence
Less than the actual output sequence of history of the prediction error upper limit；
Simulation collection acquiring unit, for multiple similar output sequences to be formed to the simulation of the following wind power output sequences
Collection.
10. wind-powered electricity generation according to claim 8 participates in the safety margin analysis system of black starting-up, which is characterized in that described to go through
History wind power output data include the actual wind power output data of history, and the wind regime probability evaluation entity includes：
Maximum wind output undulating value scope acquiring unit, for the actual wind power output data of the history according to wind power plant,
The corresponding maximum wind output undulating value scope of different wind regime is obtained, wherein, different wind regime correspond to different wind power output sequences；
Wind regime probability calculation unit is drawn for carrying out wind regime to the simulation collection according to the maximum wind output undulating value scope
Point, multiple analogue subsets are obtained, and calculate the wind regime probability distribution row of multiple analogue subsets.
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| CN103887813A (en) * | 2014-01-21 | 2014-06-25 | 国家电网公司 | Control method of wind power system operation based on wind power prediction uncertainty |
| CN105741025A (en) * | 2016-01-26 | 2016-07-06 | 山东大学 | Prevention and control method of online risk assessment based on wind power fluctuation |
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| CN103887813A (en) * | 2014-01-21 | 2014-06-25 | 国家电网公司 | Control method of wind power system operation based on wind power prediction uncertainty |
| CN105741025A (en) * | 2016-01-26 | 2016-07-06 | 山东大学 | Prevention and control method of online risk assessment based on wind power fluctuation |
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