CN108053056A - A kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction - Google Patents
A kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of power industry load forecasting methods that can improve precision of prediction, comprise the following steps：The Power system load data of user at this stage is sampled, and obtains sample data；Classify to the sample data being collected into；Calling and obtaining user history Power system load data, and judge the accuracy rate of history Power system load data；Historical data is compared with data at this stage；Comparison result is delivered to computer, and passes through computer and comparison result is subsequently simulated；The load condition of power industry at this stage will be predicted by analog result.The present invention is compared by transferring historical data with data at this stage, and by influence of the extraneous factor to electric load, go out the load condition of power industry at this stage in computer simulation, so as to predict the load condition of later stage power industry, the precision of prediction can be significantly improved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Load Prediction In Power Systems technical field more particularly to a kind of electric power that can improve precision of prediction
Industry load forecasting method.
Background technology
Load Prediction In Power Systems are the important component of Power System Planning and the base of Economical Operation of Power Systems
Plinth, all of crucial importance to Power System Planning and operation, short-term load forecasting therein is in unit commitment, economic tune
All various aspects such as degree, optimal load flow and electricity market decision-making play the role of particularly important, and the precision of load prediction is higher, more favourable
In the utilization rate and the validity of economic load dispatching that improve generating equipment；Conversely, when load prediction error is larger, not only result in big
It measures operating cost and loss of income or even the reliability of Operation of Electric Systems and the equilibrium of supply and demand of electricity market can be influenced.
Patent publication No. provides a kind of method of electric load intelligent predicting for the patent document of 106951990 A of CN
And device, it can quickly recommend optimal algorithm according to the data of corresponding attribute, effectively avoid the mathematics of Load Forecast Algorithm
Change and medelling, but it can not improve power industry load forecasting method precision, so it is proposed that one kind can improve it is pre-
The power industry load forecasting method of precision is surveyed, it is set forth above for solving the problems, such as.
The content of the invention
To overcome above-mentioned problems of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of electric power that can improve precision of prediction
Industry load forecasting method.
In order to realize foregoing invention purpose, the present invention is achieved in the following ways：
A kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction, which is characterized in that include following steps：
S1：The Power system load data of user at this stage is sampled, and obtains sample data；
S2：According to S1, classify to the sample data being collected into；
S3：Calling and obtaining user history Power system load data, and judge the accuracy rate of history Power system load data；
S4：According to S3, historical data is compared with data at this stage；
S5：According to S4, comparison result is delivered to computer, and passes through computer and comparison result is subsequently simulated；
S6：According to S5, by analog result, the load condition of power industry at this stage will be predicted.
The Power system load data of user at this stage is sampled in the S1, and obtains sample data, is referred to existing rank
The data of section user import computer, and are fabricated to text document form, and then each user is numbered.
Classify in the S2 to the sample data being collected into, refer to according to different areas, the use completed to number
Classify at family.
Calling and obtaining user history Power system load data in the S3, and judge the accuracy rate of history Power system load data, refer to
The historical data of each user is transferred, and the situation that prediction at that time occurs with the later stage is compared, draws historical data
Accuracy rate, and user of the accuracy rate more than 80% is selected, then into line renumbering.
Data at this stage in the S4, refer to meteorologic factor, festivals or holidays and the industrial user to each area at this stage
Electricity consumption situation estimated, and judge later stage meteorologic factor, festivals or holidays and industrial user to caused by electric load
It influences.
Historical data is compared with data at this stage in the S4, refer to the historical data that will be renumberd with it is corresponding
Data at this stage be compared.
Comparison result is delivered to computer in the S5, and passes through computer and comparison result is subsequently simulated, refer to by
Comparison result is synchronized on computer, prepares simulation softward, simulation softward for disclosed PRO II process simulation softwares, and using mould
Intend software subsequently to simulate comparison result.
Comparison result refers to the later stage is present at this stage meteorologic factor, festivals or holidays and industrial user to electricity in the S5
The influence of electric load caused by the service condition of power.
By analog result in the S6, the load condition of power industry at this stage will be predicted, referred to soft using simulating
Part simulates comparison result, and is predicted according to the load condition that the result of simulation is present with the later stage at this stage, profit
It is sampled with to Power system load data at this stage, draws electric load situation at this stage, then recycled to history electric power
Load data is transferred, and is numbered to choosing the higher part of historical data accuracy rate, utilizes historical data co-occurrence
The data in stage are compared, then factor influential on electric load at this stage is judged, recycle computer to existing rank
The comparison of section and historical data, it is possible to predict the load condition of power industry at this stage.
Advantages of the present invention and advantageous effect are：
By being sampled to Power system load data at this stage, it can be deduced that then electric load situation at this stage passes through again
History Power system load data is transferred, and is numbered to choosing the higher part of historical data accuracy rate, Ran Houli
It is compared with historical data with data at this stage, then factor influential on electric load at this stage is judged, then
By computer to the comparison at this stage with historical data, it is possible to the load condition of power industry at this stage is predicted, this
Invention is compared by transferring historical data with data at this stage, and by influence of the extraneous factor to electric load,
Computer simulation is recycled to go out the load condition of power industry at this stage, it is pre- so as to be carried out to the load condition of later stage power industry
It surveys, and the precision of prediction can be significantly improved, than the more conventional power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction
The precision of the load condition predicted improves 12.1%-16.7%.
In the following with reference to the drawings and specific embodiments, the present invention is described in further detail, but from the present embodiment institute
Limit.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction is proposed in the present embodiment,
Comprise the following steps：
S1：The Power system load data of user at this stage is sampled, and obtains sample data；
S2：According to S1, classify to the sample data being collected into；
S3：Calling and obtaining user history Power system load data, and judge the accuracy rate of history Power system load data；
S4：According to S3, historical data is compared with data at this stage；
S5：According to S4, comparison result is delivered to computer, and passes through computer and comparison result is subsequently simulated；
S6：According to S5, by analog result, the load condition of power industry at this stage will be predicted.
In the present embodiment：
The Power system load data of user at this stage is sampled in the S1, and obtains sample data, refers to use at this stage
The data at family import computer, and are fabricated to text document form, and then each user is numbered.
Classify in the S2 to the sample data being collected into, refer to according to different areas, the use completed to number
Classify at family.
Calling and obtaining user history Power system load data in the S3, and judge the accuracy rate of history Power system load data, refer to
After the completion of classification, the historical data of each user is taken out using computer, then occurs prediction at that time with the later stage
Situation is compared, and draws the accuracy rate of historical data, user of the accuracy rate more than 80% is filtered out, then again by this
A little users are into line renumbering.
Data at this stage in the S4, refer to count the location of extracted user at this stage, then according to institute
It is estimated in the meteorologic factor on ground, festivals or holidays and the electricity consumption of industrial user situation, electricity is used to user by meteorologic factor
The influence of power, festivals or holidays use user using the influence of electric power and industrial user the influence of electric power, it is possible to after judging
Electric load situation caused by phase.In the S4 historical data with data is at this stage compared, refers to renumber
Historical data is compared with corresponding data at this stage.
Comparison result is delivered to computer in the S5, and passes through computer and comparison result is subsequently simulated, refer to by
The result of comparison is synchronized on computer, and simulation softward is downloaded in computer, simulation softward for disclosed PRO II flowsheetings
Then software simulates comparison result using simulation softward.
Comparison result refers to the later stage is present at this stage meteorologic factor, festivals or holidays and industrial user to electricity in the S5
The influence of electric load caused by the service condition of power.
By analog result in the S6, the load condition of power industry at this stage will be predicted, referred to according to simulation
As a result the load condition being present with to the later stage at this stage is predicted, is sampled using to Power system load data at this stage,
It can draw electric load situation at this stage, then recycle and history Power system load data is transferred, and to choosing history
The higher part of data accuracy is numbered, and is then compared using historical data with data at this stage, then to existing
Stage, factor influential on electric load judged, recycled computer to the comparison at this stage with historical data, it is possible to
The load condition of power industry at this stage is predicted.
The present invention is compared using historical data is transferred with data at this stage, and is utilized to extraneous factor to power load
The influence of lotus recycles computer simulation to go out the load condition of power industry at this stage, so as to the load feelings to later stage power industry
Condition is predicted, and can improve the precision of prediction.
In the present embodiment, the power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction of the present embodiment is predicted
Load condition and the load condition that is predicted of the conventional power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction carry out
Comparison, the ratio of precision for the load condition that the power industry load forecasting method that the present embodiment can improve precision of prediction is predicted
The precision for the load condition that the more conventional power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction is predicted improves
12.1%-16.7%。
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention be not limited thereto,
Any one skilled in the art in the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, technique according to the invention scheme and its
Inventive concept is subject to equivalent substitution or change, should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction, which is characterized in that comprise the following steps：
S1：The Power system load data of user at this stage is sampled, and obtains sample data；
S2：According to S1, classify to the sample data being collected into；
S3：Calling and obtaining user history Power system load data, and judge the accuracy rate of history Power system load data；
S4：According to S3, historical data is compared with data at this stage；
S5：According to S4, comparison result is delivered to computer, and passes through computer and comparison result is subsequently simulated；
S6：According to S5, by analog result, the load condition of power industry at this stage will be predicted.
2. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, feature exist
In, the Power system load data of user at this stage is sampled in the S1, and sample data is obtained, refer to user at this stage
Data import computer, and be fabricated to text document form, then each user be numbered.
3. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, feature exist
In, classify in the S2 to the sample data being collected into, refer to according to different areas, the user's progress completed to number
Classification.
4. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, feature exist
In, calling and obtaining user history Power system load data in the S3, and judge the accuracy rate of history Power system load data, refer to transfer every
The historical data of a user, and the situation that prediction at that time occurs with the later stage is compared, draw the accuracy rate of historical data,
And user of the accuracy rate more than 80% is selected, then into line renumbering.
5.S4：According to S3, historical data is compared with data at this stage；
A kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, which is characterized in that
Data at this stage in the S4, refer to the meteorologic factor in each area, festivals or holidays and the electricity consumption of industrial user feelings at this stage
Condition is estimated, and judges later stage meteorologic factor, festivals or holidays and industrial user to the influence caused by electric load.
6. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, feature exist
In, historical data is compared with data at this stage in the S4, refer to the historical data that will be renumberd with it is corresponding existing
The data in stage are compared.
7. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, feature exist
In, comparison result is delivered to computer in the S5, and pass through computer and comparison result is subsequently simulated, refer to compare and tie
Fruit is synchronized on computer, prepares simulation softward, simulation softward for disclosed PRO II process simulation softwares, and using simulation softward
Comparison result is subsequently simulated.
8. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, feature exist
In comparison result refers to the later stage is present at this stage meteorologic factor, festivals or holidays and industrial user to electric power in the S5
The influence of electric load caused by service condition.
9. a kind of power industry load forecasting method that can improve precision of prediction according to claim 1, feature exist
In, by analog result in the S6, the load condition of power industry at this stage will be predicted, refer to using simulation softward compare
Result is simulated, and is predicted according to the load condition that the result of simulation is present with the later stage at this stage, using to existing
The Power system load data in stage is sampled, and draws electric load situation at this stage, is then recycled to history electric load number
It is numbered according to being transferred, and to choosing the higher part of historical data accuracy rate, using historical data at this stage
Data are compared, then factor influential on electric load at this stage is judged, recycle computer at this stage and going through
The comparison of history data, it is possible to predict the load condition of power industry at this stage.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111337742A (en) * | 2020-02-25 | 2020-06-26 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Distribution network short-term load prediction data acquisition equipment |
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