CN108022133A - A kind of Stock Evaluation method based on the similar income of itself history - Google Patents

A kind of Stock Evaluation method based on the similar income of itself history Download PDF

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CN108022133A
CN108022133A CN201711408527.8A CN201711408527A CN108022133A CN 108022133 A CN108022133 A CN 108022133A CN 201711408527 A CN201711408527 A CN 201711408527A CN 108022133 A CN108022133 A CN 108022133A
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洪志令
吴梅红
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    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0278—Product appraisal
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/04—Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange

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Abstract

The method of the present invention according to current earnings per share, searches for the history of personal share generally, finds the corresponding trade date of similar earnings per share, history valuation p/e ratio first（PE）Deng；Afterwards by the corresponding valuation PE of these trade dates according to certain growth rate conversion to current trading day；The valuation PE to return to multiple conversions averages and variance, and using average add and subtract 1 times, 2 times, 3 times of variance is as the current valuation section of stock；Valuation section is finally converted to the price traffic coverage of stock, the operation probability in each section is respectively 68%, 95% and 99%.

Description

A kind of Stock Evaluation method based on the similar income of itself history
Technical field
The present invention relates to stock certificate data digging technology field, more particularly, to a kind of stock based on the similar income of itself history Ticket estimation method.
Background technology
Stock Evaluation is a relative complex process, and the factor of influence is very much.Have to the method for Stock Evaluation it is a variety of, such as According to adaptive expectations, the firms profitability of investor, or enterprise assets value etc..
Stock Evaluation method is broadly divided into two major class of absolute valuation and opposite valuation.
Absolute valuation is by the analysis to listed company's history and current basic side and will reflect company management to future The prediction of the financial data of situation obtains the inherent value of listed company's stock.The method such as discounted cash flow of absolute valuation is fixed a price Model, B-S Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model Black-Scholes etc..
It is to show the price guidelines such as rate and other more stocks using p/e ratio, price value ratio, commercially available rate, city with respect to valuation（It is right Than being）Contrasted, if the average value of the corresponding desired value less than contrast system, stock price are underestimated, share price will have very much Wish to go up so that index returns the average value of contrast system.
Though the definition of above estimation method is simple, it is considerably complicated really to implement to operate, and is directed to numerous Basic side information, price guideline etc..
Under outstanding shares big data environment, it is a new direction to make full use of historical data.The method of the present invention is not gone Be related to complexity economic model, but allow machine learning stock in the past the valuation history of itself, then providing automatically should currently have Appraisal and section, so as to allow investor easily to confirm that current personal share share price relative to valuation valency has been high or low .
The content of the invention
The invention discloses a kind of Stock Evaluation method based on the similar income of itself history.Method search personal share is experienced personally certainly Stock Evaluation PE when earnings per share are similar in history, then estimates current stock price in turn according to valuation history.
The main thought of the method for the present invention is：First according to current earnings per share, search for the history of personal share generally, find The corresponding trade date of similar earnings per share, history valuation p/e ratio（PE）Deng；Estimate afterwards by these trade dates are corresponding Value PE is according to certain growth rate conversion to current trading day；The valuation PE to return to multiple conversions averages and variance, and Using average add and subtract 1 times, 2 times, 3 times of variance is as the current valuation section of stock；Valuation section is finally converted into stock The price traffic coverage of ticket, the operation probability in each section is respectively 68%, 95% and 99%.
The method of the present invention carries out calculating analysis after daily closing quotation, can obtain the appraisal of personal share daily, and corresponding The price range of difference operation probability.
The step of the method for the present invention, is as follows：
（1）Basic data is collected and prepared in advance with data structure；
（2）Itself historical similar situation is searched for the current earnings per share of personal share；
（3）The similar income of history is corresponded into the valuation PE of the day of trade by certain speedup conversion to current trading day；
（4）Valuation PE and the valuation section of current trading day are calculated according to history valuation PE；
（5）Valuation result is converted to the appraisal of stock and the probability traffic coverage of price.
Wherein, step (1) basic data is collected and prepared in advance with data structure, it is necessary to which the basic data collected includes： （a）Closing price（Close）, i.e. the daily closing price of personal share since two thousand nine；(b) earnings per share (EPS), i.e., from 2009 with Carry out the personal share income per quarterly report, and discs was decomposed on closing price corresponding each day of trade before needs.
The data for needing to precalculate or preparing include:（a）Growth rate is converted, that is, is assumed with January 1st, 2009 for base Point, its coefficient factor0For 1, annual growth 8%, annual number of days is dayCount (366 days/non-leap-year 365 of leap year), first By annual growth（yearRate）Convert as daily progression rate（dayRate）, i.e.,：dayRate = Math.Pow(1+ YearRate, 1/dayCount), Math.Pow represents power calculating, then calculates daily growth factor factork, i.e., from On January 1st, 2009 starts, and tires out multiply the daily growth factor of calculating in order：factork+1=factork* dayRate, k are day The serial number of phase, arrives current trading day until calculating, is denoted as factortoday.(b) p/e ratio（PE）, i.e., since two thousand nine Each corresponding p/e ratio PE of day of trade closing price, can be obtained by collecting, can also voluntarily calculated, calculation formula is：PEk =Closek/EPSk, wherein k is the serial number on date；Rolling average is asked to history p/e ratio afterwards（EMA）：EMAtoday=α * Closetoday + ( 1 - α ) * EMAyesterday;Wherein, α is Smoothness Index, is taken as 2/ (N+1), the value of N is 30 days Or 60 days.
Wherein, step (2) searches for itself historical similar situation with the current earnings per share of personal share, is specially：Assuming that The earnings per share on the same day are denoted as EPStoday, it is since two thousand nine EPS per the day of trade corresponding earnings per share arrayk, wherein k For the serial number on date, same day earnings per share are fluctuated a section first, such as fluctuate 10%, then form numerical value area Between [0.9*EPStoday,1.1*EPStoday]；Then it is EPS to travel through earnings per share arraykIf EPSkIn [0.9*EPStoday, 1.1*EPStoday] inside section, then record and obtain relevant historical information and form following array：
Corresponding trade date Date:{D1,D2..., DL};
P/e ratio PE after corresponding rolling average:{ PE1, PE2..., PEL};
Corresponding growth factor factor: { factor1, factor2..., factorL}。
Wherein, the similar income of history is corresponded to the valuation PE of the day of trade by certain speedup conversion to current transaction by step (3) Day, it is specially：By the p/e ratio PE after the rolling average obtained in previous step:{ PE1, PE2..., PELConvert to current The day of trade, the obtained day of trade corresponding PE is searched for eachi, carry out the conversion of following manner：newPEi = PEi* factortoday/factori, i=1,2 ..., L, L are the similar historical number that search obtains here, eventually form new array newPE: { newPE1, newPE2..., newPEL}。
Wherein, step (4) calculates valuation PE and the valuation section of current trading day according to history valuation PE, is specially：It is right Valuation array newPE after conversion carries out statistics calculating, it is assumed that the p/e ratio valuation symbol in similar income to stock in history Normal distribution is closed, we first ask for the element inside array mean μ and variances sigma, the mean μ of such newPE array elements The as average of valuation（Average p/e ratio, for being averaged for valuation multiple）, while built with the mean μ of newPE arrays and variances sigma Three valuation sections, i.e. [μ-σ, μ+σ], [μ -2 σ, μ+2 σ] and [μ -3 σ, μ+3 σ].
Wherein, valuation result is converted to the appraisal of stock and the probability traffic coverage of price by step (5), is specially：It is first Valuation multiple mean μ is first converted into the share price of estimation, i.e. evaltoday=EPStoday* μ, at this time with the closing price on the same day ClosetodayContrast, you can know that current share prices are over-evaluated or underestimated；The bound in three valuation sections is changed Into share price section, specific conversion is as follows：
[μ-σ, μ+σ] → [EPStoday*(μ-σ), EPStoday*(μ+σ)];
[μ-2σ, μ+2σ] → [EPStoday*(μ-2σ), EPStoday*(μ+2σ)];
[μ-3σ, μ+3σ] → [EPStoday*(μ-3σ), EPStoday*(μ+3σ)];
Transformed share price section corresponds to operation probability of the stock share price in the section respectively at this time 68%, 95% and 99%.To working as The valuation result of day is visualized, and exports the valuation instrument board on the same day；Daily valuation is recorded as a result, when tracking one section Between, visualize the sequence chart for exporting valuation section.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of Stock Evaluation method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the Normal Distribution Theory of the method for the present invention probability traffic coverage institute foundation.
Fig. 3 is the valuation instrument board on the same day based on the method for the present invention output.
Fig. 4 is the valuation sequence of intervals figure of the personal share based on the method for the present invention output for a period of time.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and example, the present invention is described in detail.
The method of the present invention according to current earnings per share, searches for the history of personal share generally, finds similar per share receipts first The corresponding trade date of benefit, history valuation p/e ratio（PE）Deng；Afterwards by the corresponding valuation PE of these trade dates according to certain Growth rate conversion to current trading day；The valuation PE to return to multiple conversions averages and variance, and adds and subtracts 1 with average Times, 2 times, 3 times of variance is respectively as the current valuation section of stock；The price that valuation section is finally converted to stock is run Section, the operation probability in each section is respectively 68%, 95% and 99%.
Lift a simple case, such as 1 piece of the current earnings per share of certain stock, then itself all historical data is searched for, For earnings per share at 1 piece or so, what kind of scope its valuation is in history, such as 30 ~ 40 times, considers the people in turn afterwards Coin the factor conversion such as devalues to current, and valuation may be exactly 50-60 times, finally do statistical to these history valuations converted Analysis, provides the price traffic coverage of current personal share appraisal and different probability.
Assuming that stock list is S, S=[S1, S2,…,Si,…,Sn], n is the quantity of stock in stock pond, in China The quantity of city's stock or the quantity of listed stock of the U.S..
For every stock, it is assumed that stock to be valuated is Sm, m=1 ..., n is comprised the following steps that.
First, basic data is collected and prepared in advance with data structure.
The earnings per share of stock are embodied by personal share in quarterly report, since quarterly report too remote has missing to the data, Basis of the historical data as following calculating since taking 2009.
1.1 basic datas for needing to collect have the following aspects.
(1) closing price（Close）：The daily closing price of personal share since two thousand nine.
(2) earnings per share (EPS):Personal share income per quarterly report since two thousand nine, and discs decomposes receipts before needs On disk valency corresponding each day of trade.
1.2 data for needing to precalculate or prepare have the following aspects.
(1) growth rate is converted.
Assuming that with January 1st, 2009 for basic point, its coefficient factor0For 1, annual growth 8%, annual number of days is DayCount (366 days/non-leap-year 365 of leap year).
First by annual growth（yearRate）Convert as daily progression rate（dayRate）, i.e.,：dayRate = Math.Pow (1+ yearRate, 1/dayCount), Math.Pow represent power calculating.
Then daily growth factor factor is calculatedk, i.e., since 1 day January in 2009, tire out multiply calculating daily in order Growth factor：factork+1=factork* dayRate, k are the serial number on date, arrive current trading day until calculating, are denoted as factortoday。
(2) p/e ratio（PE）.
The corresponding p/e ratio PE of closing price of each day of trade since two thousand nine, can be obtained by collecting, can also be certainly Row calculates, and calculation formula is：PEk=Closek/EPSk, wherein k is the serial number on date.
Rolling average is asked to history p/e ratio（EMA）：EMAtoday=α * Closetoday + ( 1 - α ) * EMAyesterday;Wherein, α is Smoothness Index, is taken as 2/ (N+1), the value of N is 30 days or 60 days.
2nd, itself historical similar situation is searched for the current earnings per share of personal share.
Assuming that the earnings per share on the same day are denoted as EPStoday, it is per the day of trade corresponding earnings per share array since two thousand nine EPSk, wherein k is the serial number on date.
Same day earnings per share are fluctuated a section first, such as fluctuate 10%, then form numerical intervals [0.9* EPStoday,1.1*EPStoday]。
Then it is EPS to travel through earnings per share arraykIf EPSkIn [0.9*EPStoday,1.1*EPStoday] section the inside, Then record and obtain relevant historical information and form following array：
Corresponding trade date Date:{D1,D2..., DL};
P/e ratio PE after corresponding rolling average:{ PE1, PE2..., PEL};
Corresponding growth factor factor: { factor1, factor2..., factorL}。
One threshold value Th is set herein for L, if L<Th, then illustrate to have in history the day of trade of similar earnings per share too It is few, the method for the present invention can not be applicable in, at this time the personal share same day can not valuation, directly skip, it is not necessary to carry out again in next step.
The 3rd, the similar income of history is corresponded to the valuation PE of the day of trade by certain speedup conversion to current trading day.
By the p/e ratio PE after the rolling average obtained in previous step:{ PE1, PE2..., PELConvert to current and hand over Yi, it is specific as follows.
The obtained day of trade corresponding PE is searched for eachi, carry out the conversion of following manner：
newPEi = PEi* factortoday/factori,
Here i=1,2 ..., L, L are the similar historical number that search obtains；Eventually form new array newPE: { newPE1, newPE2..., newPEL}。
4th, valuation PE and the valuation section of current trading day are calculated according to history valuation PE.
Statistics calculating is carried out to the valuation array newPE after conversion.Assuming that in history in similar income to the city of stock Rate valuation of being full of meets normal distribution, we ask for mean μ and variances sigma to the element inside array first.
According to the Normal Distribution Theory of Fig. 2, in section, [μ-σ, μ+σ] can cover 68% sample；[μ -2 σ, The σ of μ+2] can cover 95% sample；And 99% sample can be covered at [σ of μ -3 σ, μ+3].
The mean μ of so newPE array elements is the average of valuation（Average p/e ratio, for being averaged for valuation multiple）, Three valuation sections, i.e., [μ-σ, μ+σ], [μ -2 σ, μ+2 σ] and [μ -3 are built with the mean μ of newPE arrays and variances sigma at the same time σ, μ+3σ]。
The 5th, valuation result is converted to the appraisal of stock and the probability traffic coverage of price.
Multiple mean μ and three valuation sections of the above valuation result including valuation.Valuation multiple mean μ is changed first Into the share price of estimation, i.e. evaltoday=EPStoday* μ, at this time with the closing price Close on the same daytodayContrast, you can know Current share prices are over-evaluated or are underestimated.
The bound in three valuation sections is converted into share price section, specific conversion is as follows：
[μ-σ, μ+σ] → [EPStoday*(μ-σ), EPStoday*(μ+σ)]；
[μ-2σ, μ+2σ] → [EPStoday*(μ-2σ), EPStoday*(μ+2σ)]；
[μ-3σ, μ+3σ] → [EPStoday*(μ-3σ), EPStoday*(μ+3σ)]；
Transformed share price section corresponds to operation probability of the stock share price in the section respectively at this time 68%, 95% and 99%.
By taking certain stock as an example, result is visualized.Fig. 3 is estimating for the same day based on the method for the present invention output It is worth instrument board.Scale " valuation average " in the middle part of the top is the same day valuation price to the stock.It is left centered on the point Right both sides are respectively divided into three regions, respectively the upper limit in the lower limit in corresponding 3 sections and 3 sections.When gauge pointer is directed toward left side When, to underestimate；Otherwise when being directed toward right side, then to over-evaluate.When pointer is directed toward the lower limit in left side difference section, then different journeys are corresponded to Degree is underestimated；It is conversely, when being directed toward the upper limit in the different sections in the right, then corresponding different degrees of to over-evaluate.
For the tendency change of more preferable tracking daily valuation result, daily valuation is recorded as a result, and forming valuation section sequence Row figure.Still by taking certain stock as an example, result is visualized.When Fig. 4 is one section of the personal share based on the method for the present invention output Between valuation sequence of intervals figure.
Tendency changes sharp curve as actual daily closing price tendency in figure, in addition around the section, up and down altogether There are 7 curves, most intermediate curve is valuation price curve, and each 3 curve distributions above and below remaining are 68%, 95% and 99% to estimate The traffic coverage bound of costly lattice.
By the figure, equity investment people can very easily know the valuation section where a period of time the inside share price operation And its over-evaluate situation about underestimating, i.e., when stock price is operated in below Stock Evaluation, to underestimate；Otherwise to over-evaluate；When approaching During the lower limit in different probability section, then correspondence is different degrees of underestimates；Conversely, when approaching the upper limit of each probability interval, then it is right Different degrees of it should over-evaluate.
In addition, the sequence line in valuation section might have tomography, possible cause has：The day of trade of the similar income of history is too Less, the unstable deviations each other of history valuation PE are too big etc..
In conclusion the present invention proposes a kind of Stock Evaluation method based on the similar income of itself history, method is abundant The historical data of personal share stock is make use of, calculating current stock in turn with the valuation under the similar situation of Profit of history should give Valuation or appraisal, and the price traffic coverage under different probability.In addition, it should be noted that when earnings per share for negative value, Stock is suspended, Stock Evaluation data are not complete, model hypotheses are invalid when reason, and the valuation of the stock will be unable to export.
The method of the present invention, which is similarly applied to security class, has the data of time series feature, such as fund, futures.Cause This, although disclosing the specific embodiments and the drawings of the present invention for the purpose of illustration, its object is to help to understand in the present invention Hold and implement according to this, but it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that：The essence of claim of the invention and appended is not being departed from In god and scope, it is various replace, to change and modifications all be impossible.Therefore, the present invention should not be limited to most preferred embodiment and Attached drawing disclosure of that.Presently disclosed embodiment should be understood illustrative rather than it be claimed in all respects Scope limitation.

Claims (5)

  1. A kind of 1. Stock Evaluation method based on the similar income of itself history, it is characterised in that described method includes following steps：
    （1）Basic data is collected and prepared in advance with data structure；
    （2）Itself historical similar situation is searched for the current earnings per share of personal share；
    （3）The similar income of history is corresponded into the valuation PE of the day of trade by certain speedup conversion to current trading day；
    （4）Valuation PE and the valuation section of current trading day are calculated according to history valuation PE；
    （5）Valuation result is converted to the appraisal of stock and the probability traffic coverage of price.
  2. 2. the earnings per share current with personal share according to claim 1 search for itself historical similar situation, its feature It is, is to be fluctuated with the current earnings per share of personal share behind a section, phase of the filtering in this section in itself history Like the corresponding history p/e ratio of income.
  3. 3. the valuation PE according to claim 1 that the similar income of history is corresponded to the day of trade is converted to current by certain speedup The day of trade, it is characterised in that annual growth is decomposed into corresponding growth factor of each day of trade first, afterwards filters search Obtained history p/e ratio, by current trading day growth factor and the ratio of historical trading day growth factor, conversion is to currently The valuation multiple of the day of trade.
  4. 4. valuation PE and the valuation section according to claim 1 that current trading day is calculated according to history valuation PE, it is special Sign is that the valuation multiple returned to conversion is averaged and variance, and in combination with Normal Distribution Theory, build to cover respectively 68%th, the valuation section of 95%, 99% sample.
  5. 5. the probability traffic coverage of the appraisal and price according to claim 1 that valuation result is converted to stock, it is special Sign is, the probability traffic coverage of price be directly provided in the form of price share price [μ-σ, μ+σ], [μ -2 σ, μ+2 σ], The operation probability in [μ -3 σ, μ+3 σ] section is respectively 68%, 95%, 99%, while is visualized into daily valuation instrument board With the valuation sequence of intervals figure continued for some time.
CN201711408527.8A 2017-12-22 2017-12-22 A kind of Stock Evaluation method based on the similar income of itself history Pending CN108022133A (en)

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Cited By (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110570306A (en) * 2019-09-06 2019-12-13 广州快盈信息技术服务有限公司 data monitoring method based on label, server and storage medium
CN112541790A (en) * 2020-12-15 2021-03-23 建信金融科技有限责任公司 Method and device for maintaining evaluation data
CN112801686A (en) * 2020-12-08 2021-05-14 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 Pricing method and system for forming enterprise equity by intellectual property pricing and equity write

Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN106780021A (en) * 2016-11-25 2017-05-31 洪志令 A kind of stock based on local and global gram statistics recommends method
CN106779144A (en) * 2016-11-18 2017-05-31 洪志令 A kind of stock trend forecasting method based on itself history correlation time point

Patent Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN106779144A (en) * 2016-11-18 2017-05-31 洪志令 A kind of stock trend forecasting method based on itself history correlation time point
CN106780021A (en) * 2016-11-25 2017-05-31 洪志令 A kind of stock based on local and global gram statistics recommends method

Cited By (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110570306A (en) * 2019-09-06 2019-12-13 广州快盈信息技术服务有限公司 data monitoring method based on label, server and storage medium
CN112801686A (en) * 2020-12-08 2021-05-14 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 Pricing method and system for forming enterprise equity by intellectual property pricing and equity write
CN112541790A (en) * 2020-12-15 2021-03-23 建信金融科技有限责任公司 Method and device for maintaining evaluation data

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Application publication date: 20180511