CN108009772A - A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, historical defect data and corresponding company-information based on collected power equipment, first ask for the confidence level of the defects of power equipment rate of reflection different manufacturers that can be objective and accurate, then the power equipment annual ratio of defects annual since putting into operation of different manufacturers has been asked for according to the confidence level, so as to obtain can calculate following time of power equipment the defects of rate the defects of rate model of growth, the power equipment to have put into operation is allowd to ask for the rate prescribe a time limit in identical year of putting into operation the defects of based on ratio of defects model of growth, and it is compared；In addition influence of the change to procurement price of workload demand can scientifically be reflected by also contemplating, be conducive to avoid the occurrence of the unit capacity value of cost exception, finally ratio of defects model of growth and unit capacity value are considered, and set corresponding weight to obtain the buying weights of power equipment, make reasonable comprehensive procurement strategy.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power sourcing equipment analysis technical field, more particularly to a kind of be worth based on equipment unit capacity to divide
The power sourcing equipment method of analysis.
Background technology
In electric system, the buying for power equipment (such as high-power transformer) would generally consider equipment performance itself with
And the quality technology evaluation of manufacturer, then select the equipment with model to carry out buying replacement according to historical summary.
At present, carrying out the conventional thought that quality technology is evaluated to manufacturer is：It is existing in network operation to evaluate manufacturer
The quality level of equipment, in this, as the reflection of manufacturer's quality level.And existing evaluation criterion is often sent out with power equipment
Raw significant deficiency, the number of failure evaluate manufacturer, and evaluation index is more single and not comprehensive, it is difficult to just pair comprehensively
The power equipment of each producer carries out quality technology evaluation, so that more comprehensive procurement strategy can not be obtained.
The content of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, solves at present
Significant deficiency is often occurred with power equipment, the number of failure evaluates manufacturer, evaluation index is more single and not comprehensively,
It is difficult to the just power equipment to each producer comprehensively and carries out quality technology evaluation, so that more comprehensive buying plan can not be obtained
Technical problem slightly.
A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided by the invention, including：
The company-information and historical defect data of power equipment are obtained, and according to the company-information and the historic defects
Data ask for the confidence level of the defects of power equipment rate of different manufacturers；
The annual annual ratio of defects of the power equipment is asked for according to the historical defect data, with reference to the ratio of defects
Confidence level and the annual ratio of defects build the defects of power equipment rate model of growth；
The power equipments of different manufacturers is obtained difference puts into operation the time limit the defects of according to the ratio of defects model of growth respectively
Rate, and rate assigns the electric power of the different manufacturers and sets difference puts into operation the time limit the defects of according to the power equipments of the different manufacturers
It is standby to put into operation corresponding first weight of the time limit in difference；
According to the capability value of the power equipment and historical purchase cost, the unit capacity valency of the power equipment is asked for
Value, and assign corresponding second weight according to the unit capacity value of the power equipment of different producers；
First weight and second weight are overlapped, obtain the buying weights of power equipment.
Preferably, the historical defect data includes separate unit power equipments defect event number, is set with a batch of electric power
Standby overall fault rate and the observation cycle of power equipment.
It is preferably, described that according to the historical defect data to ask for the annual annual ratio of defects of the power equipment specific
For：
In units of year, asked for according to the overall fault rate with a batch of power equipment described with a batch of electricity
The annual annual ratio of defects of power equipment.
Preferably, it is described to be overlapped first weight and second weight, obtain the purchase right of power equipment
Further included after value：
Ask for and compare buying weights of the power equipment in the identical time limit that puts into operation of different manufacturers, and obtain adopting for maximum
Purchase the information of the power equipment of the producer corresponding to weights.
A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided by the invention, the method is also
Including：
The power equipment is analyzed in the defects of operational lifetime according to the historical defect data of power equipment
Distribution situation, and etesian defects count makes the power equipment in operational lifetime according to the power equipment
The defects of distribution map.
A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided by the invention, the method is also
Including：
The power equipment is divided by voltage class, and asks for the defects of power equipment rate distribution feelings after division
Condition, obtains the time limit that puts into operation that the defects of power equipment rate of each voltage class is uprushed.
A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided by the invention, the method is also
Including：
The position of defect is occurred to the power equipment and defect classification is analyzed, obtains lacking for the power equipment
Fall into frequent part and the defect classification that takes place frequently.
A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided by the invention, the method is also
Including：
Obtain and compare the power equipment of each voltage class of different manufacturers in the time limit that puts into operation that the ratio of defects is uprushed
The quantity of the defects of consistent with the defect classification that takes place frequently occurs in the defect frequent part.
Preferably, the capability value and historical purchase cost according to the power equipment, asks for the power equipment
Unit capacity is worth：
By the historical purchase cost of the power equipment divided by the capability value of the power equipment, the power equipment is obtained
Unit capacity value.
A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided by the invention, further includes：Obtain
Unit capacity of the power equipment of different manufacturers in history each time is taken to be worth, and the power equipment for asking for the different manufacturers exists
The growth rate of the unit capacity value in history each time.
As can be seen from the above technical solutions, the present invention has the following advantages：
Historical defect data and corresponding company-information based on collected power equipment in the present invention, first asking for can
The confidence level of the defects of power equipment rate of objective and accurate reflection different manufacturers, is then further asked for not according to the confidence level
With the annual ratio of defects that the power equipment of producer is annual since putting into operation, thus obtain can calculate power equipment future
Time the defects of rate the defects of rate model of growth so that the power equipment to have put into operation can be asked for based on ratio of defects model of growth
The rate prescribe a time limit in identical year of putting into operation the defects of, and be compared, rather than the number of defect simply occurs using power equipment
To carry out evaluation, so that the power equipment quantity of each producer and run time length factor are taken into account, it is more fair to close
Reason；In addition influence of the change to procurement price of workload demand can be reflected more scientificly by also contemplating, and be conducive to avoid the occurrence of into
This abnormal unit capacity value, is finally considered ratio of defects model of growth and unit capacity value, and setting pair
The weight answered obtains the buying weights of power equipment, comprehensive to make reasonable comprehensive procurement strategy.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
There is attached drawing needed in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only this
Some embodiments of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without having to pay creative labor, may be used also
To obtain other attached drawings according to these attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Flow diagram；
Fig. 2 is the test of normality result schematic diagram of power transformer provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is schematic diagram of the main transformer provided in an embodiment of the present invention with the average defect rate for the time limit growth that puts into operation；
Fig. 4 is the same type defects of power equipment rate of different manufacturers provided in an embodiment of the present invention with the time limit that puts into operation
Change schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 rate contrast schematic diagrams the different times the defects of for main transformer provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 6 is the defects of power equipment rate of different manufacturers provided in an embodiment of the present invention as the change in time of putting into operation is shown
It is intended to.
Embodiment
An embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, it is used for
Solve significant deficiency often occurs with power equipment at present, the number of failure evaluates manufacturer, evaluation index is more single
It is and not comprehensive, it is difficult to which that the just power equipment to each producer carries out quality technology evaluation comprehensively, so as to can not obtain more complete
The technical problem of the technical problem of the procurement strategy in face.
Goal of the invention, feature, advantage to enable the present invention is more obvious and understandable, below in conjunction with the present invention
Attached drawing in embodiment, is clearly and completely described the technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention, it is clear that disclosed below
Embodiment be only part of the embodiment of the present invention, and not all embodiment.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, this area
All other embodiment that those of ordinary skill is obtained without making creative work, belongs to protection of the present invention
Scope.
Study and find through inventor, the existing evaluation mark of the power equipment quality currently used for evaluating manufacturer
It is accurate significant deficiency is often occurred with power equipment, the number of failure evaluates manufacturer, evaluation index is more single and incomplete
Face, and many factors such as the number of devices of manufacturer, the operation time limit are not accounted for, to the meter of power equipment maintenance cost
Calculate inaccurate and manufacturer is assessed inaccurate.
At present, have accumulated in power grid a large amount of transformer production O＆Ms, operation related data, and device status monitoring,
The desk study of data analysis aid decision is carried out in the fields such as O＆M maintenance.Therefore on this basis, the operation shape to equipment
After condition has more preferable control, maintenance, operating cost are with regard to that can calculate clearer, in addition for the reasonable of equipment manufacturer
Evaluate, understood equipment unit capacity value Cost evaluating is used, the buying of equipment can be caused to enter a new reason
Read the epoch.
Referring to Fig. 1, Fig. 1 sets for a kind of electric power based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The flow diagram of standby procurement practice.
A kind of power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis provided by the invention, including：
S101, the company-information and historical defect data for obtaining power equipment, and according to company-information and historic defects number
According to the confidence level for the defects of power equipment rate for asking for different manufacturers；
It is understood that the company-information of power equipment is the corresponding manufacturing firm of power equipment, the manufacturing firm
Specifying information and the power equipment are manufactured and dispatched from the factory the date come into operation.The historical defect data of power equipment can include
The time of defect event, and same producer occur for specific separate unit defects of power equipment event number, separate unit power equipment
The defects of power equipment situation (including defect frequency and time of origin) of some batch of same model.Specifically,
Historical defect data includes all defects of power equipment records, can be with by the summarizing to historical defect data
The all defect time record of the power equipment between different manufacturers is obtained, in order to carry out the power equipment between different manufacturers
Contrast.
From statistical angle analysis, the defects of number of units of power equipment is bigger, i.e., sample is bigger, it is to totality rate reflect
Ability is stronger.But the number of devices between different manufacturers or even same producer's different batches has differences, therefore finally obtains
The defects of rate evaluation result confidence level there is also difference.But the credibility of ratio of defects and the number of units of power equipment are not necessarily into just
Than, it is possible to (such as 100) are exactly same credibility after power equipment exceedes some number of units.
Statistically, great reliability can reflects overall true horizon to describe sample using confidence level.
As shown in Fig. 2, Fig. 2 is the test of normality result schematic diagram of power transformer provided in an embodiment of the present invention.According to normality
Examine, rate followed normal distribution distribution the defects of power transformer in power grid.Wherein, df represents sample size；Sig table shows hypothesis inspection
The conspicuousness tested.
In the case where totally meeting normal distribution, in known population variance and be able to can be received by Z statistics
Error range in, calculate the correspondence of sample size and confidence level.
Determine level of confidence α (such as 0.95), it is allowed to error d<E (d cannot be more than some definite value), sample it is total
Body standard deviation is δ, sample size n, according to normal distribution confidence calculations formula, can obtain sample size n and level of confidence α
Between correspondence：
Wherein, Zα/2For Z statistics, specific data can look into standard conditions distribution table or using excel's
A variety of methods such as NORM.S.DIST () function are tried to achieve., then can be in the hope of specific as long as bringing specific level of confidence α into
Zα/2Value.For different confidence alphas, its corresponding sample number n can be obtained according to above formula.By the inequality, sample size is obtained
Correspondence between n and level of confidence α.It is computed, wherein when equipment number of units is 1864, confidence level reaches
0.99。
Therefore, can be with when specific defects of power equipment data and relevant company-information is acquired
The power equipment of different manufacturers is asked for by normal distribution confidence calculations formula according to company-information and historical defect data
The confidence level of ratio of defects, and the credibility reference index that confidence level is evaluated as ratio of defects.
S102, ask for the annual annual ratio of defects of power equipment, the confidence of binding deficient rate according to historical defect data
Degree and annual ratio of defects structure defects of power equipment rate model of growth；
The various factors conducts such as number of devices, the operation time limit of manufacturer are considered in the embodiment of the present invention at the same time
The reliability of the power equipment of producer is evaluated, (rather than is simply used using the annual ratio of defects of power equipment
The number of defect occurs for power equipment) carry out evaluation, so that by the number of devices of each producer and run time length factor
Take into account, it is more fair and reasonable.
Referring to Fig. 3, Fig. 3 is average defect rate of the main transformer provided in an embodiment of the present invention with the time limit growth that puts into operation
Schematic diagram.By Fig. 3 it can be found that：The average defect rate of main transformer, as the time limit that puts into operation increases and has relatively unambiguous
Growth pattern.
Further, referring to Fig. 4, Fig. 4 is the same type power equipment of different manufacturers provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The defects of rate with the time limit that puts into operation change schematic diagram.Due to main transformer have it is intrinsic with putting into operation the time limit and ratio of defects increases
Pattern, then if the equipment age that producer A is run at the scene is longer (10 years), and the equipment year that producer B is run at the scene
Age is shorter (3 years), then producer A generally has the annual ratio of defects of higher.But producer B is lower not than producer's A ratio of defects
It can illustrate that producer B is more excellent than producer A, because when reaching close with producer A at the equipment age of producer B, might have higher
Ratio of defects (as shown in phantom in Figure 4).Due to this growth pattern be in main transformer characteristic (i.e. power equipment is intrinsic
Characteristic), all it is consistent to all producers, therefore, rate failure rate increases the defects of when evaluating producer, it is necessary to according to corresponding device
Long rule is converted, and the producer compared that lets on is compared on same starting line, more fair and reasonable.Therefore, may be used
To ask for the annual annual ratio of defects of power equipment according to historical defect data, then in conjunction with the confidence level and Nian Ping of ratio of defects
Equal ratio of defects structure defects of power equipment rate model of growth so that, can be with when being compared to the power equipments of different manufacturers
The identical time limit that puts into operation is carried out according to defects of power equipment rate model of growth enable the to put into operation power equipment of Time Inconsistency
Comparison.
Further, it should be noted that the main transformer that the different times of putting into operation put into operation, its ratio of defects also have marked difference.Such as
Shown in Fig. 5, Fig. 5 rate contrast schematic diagrams the different times the defects of for main transformer provided in an embodiment of the present invention.From conversion
Afterwards respectively put into operation the time the defects of rate from the point of view of, the production technology of main transformer has fluctuation, but be generally still constantly into
Step.
Since production technology is gradually improving, the main transformer that different year puts into operation, it is necessary to examine when its ratio of defects is compared
Consider the different factor of the production technology of different year.
As shown in fig. 6, Fig. 6 be different manufacturers provided in an embodiment of the present invention defects of power equipment rate with year of putting into operation
The change schematic diagram of part.Production technology due to main transformer is constantly improving, a producer A with lengthy history experience,
Its old product may have the defects of higher rate, if compared with new producer B, its annual ratio of defects can be higher, but has this height
It is unrelated with producer, but the overall technology being limited by that time is horizontal.Due to the progress of this technology, when evaluating producer, it is necessary to
The defects of appropriate rate conversion is done according to opposite " Progress Rate " of various years, so that the producer compared that lets on is with identical
Benchmark, it is more fair and reasonable.I.e. when contrasting the same type of power equipment of Liang Ge producers, if producer A was in manufacture in 2010
220kV main transformers and producer B manufacture in 2014 220kV main transformers, it is necessary to the defects of by the main transformer of producer A
Rate be multiplied by one be less than 1 conversion operator so that the power equipment of producer A and producer B participate in compare when can have it is identical
Benchmark.Similarly, if a producer has the equipment that multiple times put into operation to run at the scene, the equipment to put into operation to different year
Separate computations are needed, and in the overall product quality for being finally combined to reflect the producer.
S103, obtain according to ratio of defects model of growth the power equipments of different manufacturers difference puts into operation the time limit the defects of respectively
Rate, and rate assigns the power equipment of different manufacturers in difference difference puts into operation the time limit the defects of according to the power equipments of different manufacturers
Corresponding first weight of the time limit that puts into operation；
For the ease of evaluating defects of power equipment rate, can according to the defects of above-mentioned obtained rate model of growth
The power equipments of the different manufacturers rate difference puts into operation the time limit the defects of, and corresponding imparting weight are obtained respectively.As according to scarce
Falling into rate model of growth, the rate 2017 the defects of assigns corresponding weight to the power equipment A that producer A put into operation in 2010, according to
Ratio of defects model of growth is corresponding in the possible ratio of defects imparting of 2022 to the power equipment B that producer B put into operation in 2015
Weight.It should be noted that when the power equipment to different manufacturers is compared, the time limit that will put into operation as far as possible is to electric power
The influence of equipment accounts for so that comparative result is more fair and rational, can more reflect the truth of power equipment.
S104, capability value and historical purchase cost according to power equipment, ask for the unit capacity value of power equipment, and
Corresponding second weight is assigned according to the unit capacity of the power equipment of different producers value；
It is understood that by the historical purchase cost of power equipment divided by the capability value of power equipment, electricity can be obtained
The unit capacity value of power equipment.Hold in order to make it easy to understand, unit of the part main transformer in 2005-2014 will be won below
The variation tendency of amount value is analyzed.
1 2005-2014 main transformer unit capacity value variation trend of table
As shown in Table 1, between 2005 to 2014 years, unit capacity is worth growth rate fluctuating range between -4% to 7%.
The unit capacity value growth rate (be no more than 4.3%) of 500kV and 35kV is less than 220kV and 110kV (highest close to 7%).
Between 2007 to 2009 years during main transformer unit capacity value growth rate rapid growth, 220kV and 110kV main transformers are main
Inducement element, wherein 220kV main transformers growth rate was highest in 2009, reached 6.9%；110kV main transformers were in 2008
Reach highest, be 5.8%.
The manufacturer of 220kV main transformers of buying in 2009, unit capacity value, company nature, purchase quantity are such as
Under：
2 2009 years buying 220kV main transformers manufacturer information of table
From table 2：
The mean unit capacity value of the 220kV main transformers of buying in 2009, far above 220kV main transformer ensemble average capacity valencys
Lattice (unit capacity is worth minimum producer and has also reached 6.77, far above 220kV average levels over the years), have drawn high then
220kV unit capacitys are worth growth rate.
It is domestic or joint producer in the list of the buying of 220 main transformers in 2009 producer, no import equipment.
The 110kV main transformers manufacturer of buying in 2008, unit capacity value, company nature, purchase quantity are as follows：
3 2008 years buying 110kV main transformers manufacturer information of table
From table 3：
1) the mean unit capacity value of the 110kV main transformers of buying in 2008, holds higher than 110kV main transformers ensemble average mostly
Price is measured, has drawn high 110kV unit capacitys value growth rate then.
2) it is domestic or joint producer in 110kV main transformers producer list in 2008, no import equipment.
As the above analysis：During power grid scale rapid expansion, it is easy to cause main transformer unit capacity value and rises violently.
Typically as between 2008 to 2010, rising occurs in each voltage class main transformer unit capacity value, wherein especially with
220kV, 110kV main transformer unit capacity value increase more obvious.It is worth in the time interval units capacity in higher producer,
It is domestic or joint producer, no import producer.
Unit capacity value index can be directly reflected as the equipment purchase cost for meeting specific load demand and needs,
Its situation of change is analyzed, it will be appreciated that in the case where workload demand changes, different manufacturers, the equipment of period of history are adopted
Purchase cost.
As before, 2008 to 2010 years power grid construction peak periods, there is obvious floating in main transformer unit capacity value,
The part that mainly appears on 220kV, 110kV is joint, domestic manufacturer.Fluctuation situation to the index monitors in real time, especially
It is in power grid construction peak period, is conducive to avoid the occurrence of cost exception, effective control cost.
Relative to other indexs (such as original value of the equipment, i.e. procurement price), unit capacity value can reflect negative more scientificly
Influence of the change of lotus demand to procurement price.Can be anti-in time by Electric Power Network Planning result by the monitoring being worth to unit capacity
Market is presented, is conducive to further with the communication of producer, consequently facilitating plant equipment production starts ahead of time, prevents that supply falls short of demand
Situation.At the same time, the foresight and accuracy of Electric Power Network Planning are improved, prevents from misleading market, forecasting of cost and control is pushed away
A upper new step.
Therefore, the unit capacity for asking for power equipment can be worth, and the list of the power equipment according to different producers
Bit capacity value assigns corresponding second weight, in order to follow-up comparison and evaluation.It should be noted that the value of the second weight
It can specifically purchase that center of gravity is corresponding to be assigned according to current electric grid with the value of the first foregoing weight, so that procurement decisions are more
Meet the actual demand of current power grid.
First weight and the second weight, be overlapped by S105, obtains the buying weights of power equipment.
Finally, the unit with relevant first weight of the green model of growth of defects of power equipment and with power equipment is being obtained
Capacity is worth after relevant second weight, and the first weight and the second weight are overlapped, considered, can be obtained more
The buying weights of just comparative result, i.e. power equipment comprehensively.After obtaining corresponding buying weights, by asking for and comparing
The power equipment of different manufacturers the identical time limit that puts into operation buying weights, and obtain maximum buying weights corresponding to producer
Power equipment information, can think accordingly the corresponding power equipment of the producer be this procurement strategy in it is preferably square
Case.
Further, in alternatively possible implementation provided in an embodiment of the present invention, can also include：According to electricity
The historical defect data of power equipment analyzes power equipment in the defects of operational lifetime distribution situation, and according to power equipment
Etesian defects count makes defects of power equipment distribution map in operational lifetime.By making power equipment
Defect map, can intuitively know that a situation arises in the defects of operational lifetime for power equipment, be conducive to set electric power
The defects of standby, pests occurrence rule analyzed and researched.
, can be by voltage class (such as 500kV, 220kV, 110kV on the basis of defects of power equipment distribution map is obtained
And 35kV) power equipment is divided, and the defects of power equipment rate distribution situation after division is asked for, obtain each voltage etc.
The time limit that puts into operation that the defects of power equipment rate of level is uprushed.By above-mentioned analysis, it can know, except 220kV main transformers are
Outside putting into operation the 4th year, rate high point appears at the 3rd year to put into operation the defects of the transformer of other voltage class, that is, is throwing
The defects of the first five years occur after fortune rate high point concentrates on the 3rd year, knows by analyzing and researching the defects of big data, this identical
Pattern is not accidental, which is the intrinsic feature of oil immersed type main transformer.
Further, it is also possible to analyze the position and defect classification of power equipment generation defect, power equipment is obtained
The defects of frequent part and take place frequently defect classification.Specifically, put into operation to 220kV main transformers the 4th year, the master of other voltage class
The defects of transformer puts into operation the 3rd year position, defect classification situation are found after being analyzed：Ratio of defects height points out major defect position
It is casing, regulator, major defect classification is leakage, electrical apparatus test superscalar data.
It is probably because the main transformer prerun cycle was in the 3rd year/the 4th year institute to occur electrical test superscalar data at the time limit
Cause, but same defects rate high point situation do not occur in follow-up prerun, therefore the influence can be excluded.
The 3rd year ratio of defects is higher after being put into operation due to main transformer, and is concentrated mainly on casing, on regulator, in current main transformer
Quality guarantee period is in the case of 1 year, and can require the quality guarantee period of casing, regulator (can be made 220kV main transformers for 3 years with 4 years
For the shelf-life), to optimize the purchase cost of enterprise.
However, since the fee of material during quality guarantee, traffic expense, maintenance are always manually included in equipment price by producer,
When extending quality guarantee period, there will be producer's price adjustment and buying square gauge then between game.
By taking casing as an example, it is assumed that under existing rule (quality guarantee period is 1 year), producer is for extra 2 year quality guarantee period and in electric power
Increased part expense is a (member) in equipment price, if major emergency ratio of defects is b (item/hundred to casing every year on average in 3 years
Platform year), fee of material within single year of the casing of separate unit main transformer, traffic expense, safeguard that manually (c can basis for c (member)
During main transformer is guaranteed to keep in good repair, (fee of material, traffic expense, safeguard people to the maintenance cost in the casing single year of separate unit main transformer
Work) and estimate and), then when following condition is set up, the strategy is feasible：
a<=2*c*b/100.
Therefore, based on above-mentioned analysis, when the power equipment to different manufacturers contrasts, can obtain and more different
The power equipment of each voltage class of producer is scarce with taking place frequently in the generation of defect frequent part in the time limit that puts into operation that ratio of defects is uprushed
The quantity for the defects of classification is consistent is fallen into, and is commented in this, as a judgment criteria come the comparison carried out to the power equipment of producer
Sentence.
Analyzed based on more than, be directed to reality consideration, the grasp of power equipments defect rule is clear, and count accordingly
Time and the cost of O＆M and technological transformation are calculated, according to unit capacity value calculation and monitoring, and according to ratio of defects model of growth
The quality of the power equipment of producer is compared, can select suitable producer and product, formed one it is comprehensive, just and
Effective procurement strategy.
Historical defect data and corresponding company-information based on collected power equipment in the present invention, first asking for can
The confidence level of the defects of power equipment rate of objective and accurate reflection different manufacturers, is then further asked for not according to the confidence level
With the annual ratio of defects that the power equipment of producer is annual since putting into operation, thus obtain can calculate power equipment future
Time the defects of rate the defects of rate model of growth so that the power equipment to have put into operation can be asked for based on ratio of defects model of growth
The rate prescribe a time limit in identical year of putting into operation the defects of, and be compared, rather than the number of defect simply occurs using power equipment
To carry out evaluation, so that the power equipment quantity of each producer and run time length factor are taken into account, it is more fair to close
Reason；In addition influence of the change to procurement price of workload demand can be reflected more scientificly by also contemplating, and be conducive to avoid the occurrence of into
This abnormal unit capacity value, is finally considered ratio of defects model of growth and unit capacity value, and setting pair
The weight answered obtains the buying weights of power equipment, comprehensive to make reasonable comprehensive procurement strategy.
The above, the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although with reference to before
Embodiment is stated the present invention is described in detail, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that：It still can be to preceding
State the technical solution described in each embodiment to modify, or equivalent substitution is carried out to which part technical characteristic；And these
Modification is replaced, and the essence of appropriate technical solution is departed from the spirit and scope of various embodiments of the present invention technical solution.
Claims (10)
- A kind of 1. power sourcing equipment method based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, it is characterised in that including：The company-information and historical defect data of power equipment are obtained, and according to the company-information and the historical defect data Ask for the confidence level of the defects of power equipment rate of different manufacturers；The annual annual ratio of defects of the power equipment is asked for according to the historical defect data, with reference to putting for the ratio of defects Reliability and the annual ratio of defects build the defects of power equipment rate model of growth；The power equipments of the different manufacturers rate difference puts into operation the time limit the defects of is obtained according to the ratio of defects model of growth respectively, and According to the power equipment of the different manufacturers, rate assigns the power equipments of the different manufacturers and exists difference puts into operation the time limit the defects of Difference puts into operation corresponding first weight of the time limit；According to the capability value of the power equipment and historical purchase cost, the unit capacity for asking for the power equipment is worth, and Corresponding second weight is assigned according to the unit capacity of the power equipment of different producers value；First weight and second weight are overlapped, obtain the buying weights of power equipment.
- 2. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 1 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In the historical defect data includes separate unit power equipments defect event number, the overall fault with a batch of power equipment The observation cycle of rate and power equipment.
- 3. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 2 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In described to ask for the annual annual ratio of defects of the power equipment according to the historical defect data and be specially：In units of year, ask for described setting with a batch of electric power according to the overall fault rate with a batch of power equipment Standby annual annual ratio of defects.
- 4. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 1 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In described to be overlapped first weight and second weight, the buying weights for obtaining power equipment further include afterwards：Ask for and compare buying weights of the power equipment in the identical time limit that puts into operation of different manufacturers, and obtain the purchase right of maximum The information of the power equipment of the corresponding producer of value.
- 5. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 1 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In the method further includes：The power equipment is analyzed according to the historical defect data of power equipment to be distributed in the defects of operational lifetime Situation, and etesian defects count makes lacking for the power equipment in operational lifetime according to the power equipment Fall into distribution map.
- 6. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 1 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In the method further includes：The power equipment is divided by voltage class, and asks for the defects of power equipment rate distribution situation after division, Obtain the time limit that puts into operation that the defects of power equipment rate of each voltage class is uprushed.
- 7. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 6 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In the method further includes：The position of defect is occurred to the power equipment and defect classification is analyzed, obtains the defects of power equipment frequency Hair position and the defect classification that takes place frequently.
- 8. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 7 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In the method further includes：Obtain and compare the power equipment of each voltage class of different manufacturers in the time limit that puts into operation that the ratio of defects is uprushed in institute State the quantity that the defects of consistent with the defect classification that takes place frequently occurs for defect frequent part.
- 9. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 1 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In the capability value and historical purchase cost according to the power equipment, the unit capacity for asking for the power equipment is worth Specially：By the historical purchase cost of the power equipment divided by the capability value of the power equipment, the list of the power equipment is obtained Bit capacity is worth.
- 10. the power sourcing equipment method according to claim 1 based on equipment unit capacity value analysis, its feature exist In further including：Obtain unit capacity of the power equipment of different manufacturers in history each time to be worth, and ask for the different manufacturers Power equipment history each time unit capacity be worth growth rate.
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| CN112650793A (en) * | 2020-12-30 | 2021-04-13 | 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Power grid equipment defect analysis method |
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Application publication date: 20180508 |