CN107991870A  A kind of fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of Escalator equipment  Google Patents
A kind of fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of Escalator equipment Download PDFInfo
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 CN107991870A CN107991870A CN201711263968.3A CN201711263968A CN107991870A CN 107991870 A CN107991870 A CN 107991870A CN 201711263968 A CN201711263968 A CN 201711263968A CN 107991870 A CN107991870 A CN 107991870A
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 238000004422 calculation algorithm Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 26
 230000036541 health Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 24
 230000000875 corresponding Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 13
 230000003862 health status Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 8
 230000002159 abnormal effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 4
 238000003745 diagnosis Methods 0.000 claims description 43
 238000005299 abrasion Methods 0.000 claims description 32
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 239000002965 rope Substances 0.000 claims description 15
 229910000831 Steel Inorganic materials 0.000 claims description 14
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 G—PHYSICS
 G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
 G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
 G05B13/00—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
 G05B13/02—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
 G05B13/04—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators
 G05B13/042—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators in which a parameter or coefficient is automatically adjusted to optimise the performance
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of Escalator equipment, the health status that this method passes through Escalator modules state computation Escalator system, by Escalator health status compared with abnormal elevator degree time match function, obtain Escalator run time, Escalator run time is corresponded to according to Escalator fault threshold, you can estimation apparatus remaining life.Various algorithms employed in the inventive method, it is to be analyzed and designed based on equipment index, Escalator index in algorithm is changed to other equipment index, gather corresponding detection device realtime indicators data, it can obtain the health evaluating situation and remaining life of institute's detection device, therefore, this algorithmic system is suitable for the prediction of each key equipment, has versatility.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the acquisition of fault characteristic information and the processing of information uncertainty and mass data analyzing and processing skill
Art field, and in particular to a kind of fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of Escalator equipment.
Background technology
The possibility omen that equipment fault earlywarning and life prediction are obtained according to equipment moving law or observation, can set
For before really breaking down, promptly and accurately the unusual condition of HERALD equipment, takes appropriate measures, and farthest reduces setting
Loss caused by standby failure, ensures the safety and steady of the operational process of equipment.Therefore reliable condition monitoring technology has in time
The monitoring of effect and diagnosis process exception just seem particularly urgent.
Existing equipment fault earlywarning technology is broadly divided into three major types：Method, Knowledge based engineering side based on mechanism model
Method and the method based on datadriven.
Method based on mechanism model mainly includes two stages：Produce residual error to assess with residual error, the former with equipment by transporting
The difference that the mathematical model estimating system that row mechanism is established is exported between actual measured value show that the latter analyzes according to the former and sets
It is standby whether to break down.Such method is combined closely with control theory, and most mechanism models are all linear system, therefore is worked as and faced
Nonlinear, the free degree is higher and during the complication system of Multivariable Coupling, can not detect the failure of equipment well, also
Huge cost is paid to establish model, the limitation of various environment is also all so that this method monitoring effect is bad, it is impossible to extensively
Using.
Knowledge based engineering method, it is desirable to which there is a large amount of knowledge and experience, complete database, the inspiration according to associated specialist
Sex experience, connection relation, fault propagation pattern in automatic describing monitoring process between each unit etc..For single system, property
Can preferably, for complicated system, then can be due to not complete database, enough experience inference deduction failure processes and band
Carry out various problems, so versatility is poor.
Method based on datadriven relies on smart instrumentation and computer memory technical, and mass data is excavated, and finds
Internal information resume number in process data, is monitored data so as to establish model, judges the malfunction of equipment.Rely on
Intelligent equipment well cannot lay down a definition the situation inside equipment the analysis minings of data, and machine
It is relatively narrow to practise the algorithm application surface of datadriven, technology is weak, can not be widely used in the fault prealarming of equipment.
In recent years, do not turn off and send new lifespan prediction method, having considerable method to have been used to reality also has
Still in experiment forecast period.At present, life prediction mainly has two methods, indirectly and directly measures two kinds.
Indirect lifespan prediction method is based on the supplemental characteristic of component, the degree of injury of calculating unit, dependent on component
Complete during operation, real data, have ignored the factor of material aging.
Direct lifespan prediction method has nondestructive test method and destructive testing method, and destructive testing method needs to obtain identical
Or similar sample, the data needed by destructive testing, analyze data, and projected life degree of injury, does
Go out life appraisal.Nondestructive test method, in the shorter time, can diagnose more position, and energy regular monitoring, uses
Narrow.
The research of these types of method mechanism is ripe, and the development and application of device are feasible, but the essences of life prediction
Degree needs to further improve, and application range is also up for improving.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the invention is to can pre measurement equipment whether the remaining life of exception and equipment, prevent equipment
Failure, assures the safety for life and property of the people, there is provided a kind of equipment fault earlywarning and life prediction system approach, for each
The different equipment of kind of building block, in order to which whether pre measurement equipment breaks down and remaining life, by calculating each portion of equipment
Whether the probability of malfunction of part breaks down judging equipment and the remaining life of pre measurement equipment.
The purpose of the present invention can be reached by adopting the following technical scheme that：
A kind of fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of Escalator equipment, the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method bag
Include the following steps：
S1, using SQL statement, establish database relational table, be stored in oracle database, Matlab passes through ODBC bridges
Connect oracle database and access data, complete database sharing；
An important factor for S2, analysis elevator basic structure, determine the critical component for causing elevator faults, and screening influences elevator
Analogue simulation is carried out as the index for judging elevator faults, and to achievement data；
S3, collection elevator real time data, structure dynamic bayesian network (DBN), and by Monte carlo algorithm to dynamic
The each node of Bayesian network, which solves, estimates probability of malfunction, forms CPT probabilities of malfunction, early warning is made to the failure of elevator；
Elevator achievement data in S4, calling oracle database, generates the sequence of abnormal elevator degree and run time, obtains
To the abnormality degree function of time, by the abnormality degree function of time determine elevator run time compared with abnormality degree time threshold,
So as to fulfill Escalator life prediction algorithm.
Further, the step S1 includes：
S101, using SQL statement, with reference to pivot, decode in Oracle, programming apparatus health evaluating table ELEIDX,
Fault diagnosis table FAULTDB, data point table ELE forms, a series of relation tables are built up by original point of interface table select, storage
In oracle database；
S102, base data and fault type according to equipment and part of appliance, using Devicetype tables, Index tables,
Indexdb tables, Basicdb tables, Basicdb tables structure data system, using hierarchical structure database design health evaluating with
Fault Diagnosis Database part, wherein, Devicetype tables storage device type and part of appliance and its corresponding numbering,
Index tables storage facilities refines index species, and the record of Indexdb tokens is in real time and recent index, Basicdb tables are used to record reality
When and the base data values collected in the recent period, Basic tables be used to express each base data classification and between each component and component index
Contact；
S103, using equipment fault evaluation index table Elec_Index and base data table Elec_Basic structure health comment
Estimate database, there are overlying relation between two tables, data are according to basic number in equipment fault evaluation index table Elec_Index
Calculated according to table Elec_Basic, the renewal of base data table causes the renewal of index table data, and two tables its capacity be can
Add；
S104, utilize equipment fault diagnosis table Faultdb and base data table Elec_Basic structure fault diagnosis datas
Storehouse, there are overlying relation between two tables, data are according to base data table Elec_Basic in equipment fault diagnosis table Faultdb
Calculate, the renewal of base data table causes the renewal of fault diagnosis table data, and two table capacity can add；
The client software of Oracle is installed, correctly under the client directory of configuration Oracle on S105, client machine
Tnsname.ora files, there is provided early warning system access address and access port, start the oracle listener of serverside；
S106, database and Matlab connect the data inquired about using exec in database, fetch functions by ODBC bridgings
Upper strata variable is returned to, update updates the data health evaluating table and fault diagnosis table in storehouse.
Further, the step S2 includes：
S201, analysis elevator configuration tractive driving, suspension arrangement, car frame and carriage, door system, weight balancing system,
Electric drive system, electrical system and safety system, design objective；
S202, call database in Devicetype tables, Index tables and Basicdb tables, by the elevator data collected with
Offline mode carries out big data analysis, forms Basic tables and Indexdb tables deposit database；
S203, with reference to the gloomy TEevolution1 elevator structures of the base of a fruit, research object is divided into traction machine, steel wire rope and door system
System, and propose corresponding index for each research object, and determine that fault diagnosis index is the change gear degree of wear in door system
And wirerope diameter；
S204, for change gear degree of wear index, quote in IBM algorithms and survey wear model, exceed original for predicting
The abrasion of beginning surface roughness depth；
S205, for wirerope diameter index, using finite element theory, the mutation analysis of calculated diameter.
Further, the step S3 includes：
S301, Data Collection, from database call include device history achievement data Indexdb tables,
Devicetype tables and Index tables；
S302, determine network node variable and causality, determines that network node variable and causality become including node
Measure the selection of the measurement, types of variables (discrete and continuous) of name, the description of each part of system and amount of degradation；
S303, structure elevator DBN model, analyze each component coupled relation of Escalator, with reference to electric staircase failure diagnosis index
Extraction module, builds Escalator Bayesian network fault diagnosis model figure, uses matrixstyle to represent Bayesian network in BNT,
Even node i has an arc to j, then (i, j) value is 1 in homography, is otherwise 0, establishes Bayesian network BNT, and by sample
Learn_params () function is substituted into as training set to be learnt, study obtains conditional probability table CPT；
S304, the probability for estimating according to trained Bayesian network unit failure, result of calculation deposit database is good for
In health condition evaluation table and fault diagnosis table.
Further, the step S4 includes：
S401, the CPT tables by Bayes's fault diagnosis model and network node, from database facility health Evaluation
Table extraction equipment Realtime Monitoring Data, assesses equipment health status, output equipment abnormality degree, i.e. probability of malfunction；
Historical data in S402, calling health evaluating table, generates unit exception degree time series, is intended with Matlab curves
Close tool box CFTOOL and determine fitting function exponent number, obtain unit exception degree and the fitting function of run time；
S403, call unit exception degree and the fitting function of run time, sets the corresponding abnormality degree threshold value of equipment scrapping
A, corresponding service life are x, and the abnormality degree b of equipment at this time is obtained to system real time fail probability analysis using expert system,
According to the fitting function of unit exception degree and run time, the remaining life w of equipment at this time usage time y, then equipment are calculated
=xy, realizes and system lifetim is predicted.
Further, the step S204 includes：
S2041, the basic assumption that wear model can be surveyed,
It is ENERGY E that abrasion that each number of pass times produces is consumed and number of pass times N the two variables according to wear extent
Function this it is assumed that the relation between wear extent Q and number of pass times N and the ENERGY E consumed is the differential equation
Wherein, wear extent and the relation of number of pass times are
In formula, m is the given constant of system, when unlubricated,
S2042, according to the energy of consumption and the relation of wear process, the abrasion of A types can be divided into and worn with Type B, wherein, A types
Abrasion energy of rupture in wear process remains unchanged, and belongs to heavy wear, and applied to dry friction and case of heavy load, Type B abrasion exists
Destroy as number of pass times changes and change in wear process, be moderate transfer as a result, for the abrasion of door change gear, abrasion
Represented with the following differential equation
In above formula, C is the constant coefficient of system, and the wear extent being determined by experiment under a certain number of pass times tries to achieve or by zero
Abrasion gets up to try to achieve the analytic expression of C with the models coupling that can survey abrasion, and N is number of pass times, and S is length of the contact surface along glide direction
Degree, Q is polishing scratch crosssectional area,
It is assumed that destroy work(and τ_{mx}S is directly proportional, and the contact area of two articles changes with abrasion, therefore τ_{mx}S is not normal for one
Amount,
Further, the step S205 is specific as follows：
Vernier caliper measurement of the diameter of steel wire rope with jaw, the width minimum of jaw will be enough adjacent across two
Stock, measure and carried out on the straight position outside steel wire rope end head 15m, at a distance of at least in the two sections of 1m, and at same section
Face measures two values, the measured diameter of the average value of four measurement results, as steel wire rope orthogonally.
Further, it is specific as follows that elevator DBN model is built in the step S303：
S3031, by fixed node and priori data build prior Bayesian network；
S3032, call data to carry out parameter learning to DBN networks, builds posterior Bayesian network；
S3033, calculate its probability of malfunction to each node in DBN model using Monte carlo algorithm, determines allnetwork
The CPT probability distribution tables of node.
Further, the parameter learning is to be carried out using the EM algorithms learn_params_em of successive ignition optimizing
Study, wherein, the process of EM Algorithm for Solving optimum structures is to converge to local optimum parameterProcess, occurred by random number
Device produces sample training collection, fills up loss data, and data are carried out with the parameter that maximal possibility estimation learning simulation best suits structure,
Comprise the following steps that：
E is walked, that is, it is expected：
Wherein E is desired value；D is training sample set；Represent the optimum structure parameter found, X_{i}Codomain be：q_{i}It is configuration π_{i}Put in order；N_{ijk}It is to meet variatevalue in data set DAnd π_{i}The bar of=j
Part frequency：y_{l}It is the data amount check lost in D；_{S} ^{h}It is that bayesian network structure selection is assumed；
M is walked, i.e. maximum estimated, maximal possibility estimation function：
MAP estimation function：
N′_{ijk}It is the abundant statistical factors of priori, N_{ijk}It is the abundant statistical factors of sample data,_{i},j,k,h,q∈N。
Further, the parameter learning is to be learnt using the SEM algorithms of successive ignition optimizing, wherein, SEM
The specific implementation procedure of algorithm is as follows：The initial value of variable is set；The iteration since some initial Bayesian network；Call connection
Reasoning computing of the tree reasoning algorithm completion to Bayesian network is closed, draws current optimum network；Utilized based on current optimum network
EM algorithms carry out completion to data set, obtain complete data set to realize the maximization of parameter；All nodes in calculating network
The summation of value number；The network structure different from initial network is created, using these structures as candidate network structure；Use BIC
Score function gives a mark the network structure of abovementioned candidate, and the ginseng so that score maximum is found from selected network structure
Number；Go out the best network structure with data set fitting.
The present invention is had the following advantages relative to the prior art and effect：
1st, the present invention according to data acquisition realtime update data and can carry out data processing, draw the probability of malfunction of elevator with
Trouble unit during elevator faults, and life prediction is carried out according to real time data, can be in first time by the health status of elevator
Reality gives staff.
2nd, the present invention combines IBM algorithms and finite element theory algorithm during fault signature index is established, effectively
The efficiency of data mining and the precision of data mining are improved, so that index is more reasonable.
3rd, in electric staircase failure diagnosis calculating, by Bayesian network intelligent algorithm and electric staircase failure diagnosis index extraction
Technology is combined, and builds the Bayesian network fault diagnosis model figure of elevator, and combines EM algorithms and SEM algorithms etc., by data
Bring into program and be trained, obtain conditional probability table, current elevator health status can be assessed.To improve Bayesian network
The arithmetic speed of network, introduces the approximate resoning algorithm and importance sampling method of random sampling.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the equipment fault earlywarning disclosed in the present invention and the basic framework frame of life prediction system approach principle
Structure；
Fig. 2 is the process step figure of elevator faults early warning and lifespan prediction method；
Fig. 3 is base data table form schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is fault diagnosis sheet format schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 is health evaluating sheet format schematic diagram；
Fig. 6 is device databases graph of a relation；
Fig. 7 is assessment and diagnostic data base schematic diagram；
Fig. 8 is TEevolution1 elevator primary structure block diagrams；
Fig. 9 is wirerope diameter instrumentation plan；
Figure 10 is elevator Bayesian network fault diagnosis model figure.
Embodiment
To make the purpose, technical scheme and advantage of the embodiment of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
In attached drawing, the technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is
Part of the embodiment of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art
All other embodiments obtained without making creative work, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
Embodiment
Present embodiment discloses a kind of equipment fault earlywarning and life prediction system approach, its structure as shown in Figure 1, Figure 2,
All steps of the present embodiment are all based on what Matlab development environments and Orcle databases were completed, and this method specifically includes
The following steps：
S1, with SQL statement, establish database relational table, be stored in oracle database, Matlab passes through ODBC bridgings
Connect oracle database and access data, complete database sharing；
The step is specific as follows：
S101, such as Fig. 3, Fig. 4, Fig. 5, require according to scheme, using SQL statement programming apparatus health evaluating table ELEIDX,
Fault diagnosis table FAULTDB, data point table ELE forms, a series of relation tables are built up by original point of interface table select, storage
It is used for the equipment real time data for storing collection in oracle database；
S102, such as Fig. 6, data system is built according to the base data and fault type of equipment and part of appliance using 5 tables,
Devicetype tables storage device type and part of appliance and its corresponding numbering；Index tables storage facilities refines index species；
Indexdb tables then record realtime and recent index；Basicdb tables are used to record base data values that are realtime and collecting in the recent period；
Basic tables are used to express each base data classification and contacting between each component and component index；
For health evaluating and Fault Diagnosis Database part, using the design of database (such as Fig. 7) of hierarchical structure.
S103, such as table 1, table 2, health evaluating data base manipulation equipment fault evaluation index table (Elec_Index), basis
Tables of data (Elec_Basic) is built, the overlying relation between two tables, and the data in assessment of failure index table are according to basis
Tables of data calculates, and the renewal of underlying table data can cause the renewal of index table data, its capacity of two tables can add；
1. health evaluating table ELEIDX of table
FN  Brake power exception percentage  Brake input voltage exception percentage  Traction machine working temperature abnormity  Wirerope diameter abnormality degree  Door lock relay status intensity of anomaly 
FVA LU E66  0.1  0.1  0  0  0 
FVA LU E67  0  0  0.5  0  0 
FVA LU E68  0  0  0.3  1  0 
FVA LU E69  0.2  0  0  0.1  0 
FVA LU E70  0.1  0  0.2  0  0 
FVA LU E71  0.1  0  0  0  0 
FVA LU E72  0  0  0.5  0  0 
FVA LU E73  0  0  0  0  1 
FVA LU E74  0  0  0  0  0 
FVA LU E75  0.3  0  0  0  1 
FVA LU E76  0  0.3  0.2  0  0 
FVA LU E77  0.1  0  0  0.4  0 
FVA LU E78  0.2  0  0.1  0.1  0 
FVA LU E79  0.1  0  0.5  0  0 
FVA LU E80 
2. basic data point table ELE of table
Data point describes  EQ UTPM EN TLO CATD N equipment place  PO IN TT YPE  FVALUE  VALUEDESCRIPTION  Numbers illustrated 
Elevator is normally applauded  DI  1  032767  032767  
The voltage of insulation resistance  AI  220  032767V  032767V  
The electric current of insulation resistance  AI  30  032767mA  032767mA  
Hot voltage  AI  218  032767V  032767V  
Firewire electric current  AI  90  032767mA  032767mA  
Brake input voltage  AI  235  032767V  032767V  
Brake both end voltage  AI  110  032767V  032767V  
Brake electric current  AI  500  032767mA  032767mA  
Brake force  AI  200  032767n  032767n  
Speed encoder power supply  AI  8  032767V  032767V  
Speed encoder operating temperature  AI  78  032767Degree  032767Degree  
Door lock relay status  DI  1  0=RELEASE/1=PULLIN  0=releases/1=is attracted  
The door lock relay response time  AI  600  032767ns  032767ns  
Frequency converter input voltage  AI  200  032767V  032767V  
Inverter current  AI  1000  032767mA  032767mA  
Frequency converter rotating speed  AI  1560  032767RPM  032767RPM  
Frequency converter work throat sound  DI  1  0=A BN O RM AL/1=N O RM AL  0=exception/1=are normal  
Photoelectric induction device state  DI  1  0=A BN O RM AL/1=N O RM AL  0=often/1=is normal  
Voltage during door electromechanical source  AI  250  032767V  032767V  
Door electromechanical source electric voltage frequency  AI  50  032767Hz  032767Hz  
Door machine output supply  AI  2000  032767MA  032767MA  
Door machine output power  DI  400  032767W  032767W  
Door machine connecting line state  AI  1  0=A BN O RM AL/1=N O RM AL  0=exception/1=are normal  
Encoder power supply voltage  AI  15  032767V  032767V  
Shutdown is whether there is to hit  DI  0  0=N O/1=HAVE  0=has without/1=  
Lubricating oil temperature  AI  180  032767Degree  032767 degree  
Elevator door usage time  AI  18  032767Months  032767Months 
S104, such as table 3, Fault Diagnosis Database utilize equipment fault diagnosis table (FAULTDB), base data table (Elec_
Basic) build, the overlying relation between two tables, the data in fault diagnosis table (FAULTDB) are according to basic data meter
Calculate, the renewal of base data table causes the renewal of fault diagnosis table, and two table capacity can add；
3. fault diagnosis table FAULTDB of table
Abnormality degree  Monitoring part  State  Connection status  Sub malfunction  RCTED  RCTED  RESERVED2  RESERVED3 
0.19  Brake  0  1  NULL   17 09.04.53.531000 afternoons ... of the 124 months  ...  
0.029  Steel wire rope  2  1  NULL   17 11.51.17.213000 afternoons ... of the 128 months  ...  
0.035  Frequency converter  0  1  NULL   17 08.48.01.917000 afternoons ... of the 124 months  ...  
0.197  Encoder  0  1  NULL   17 09.07.55.421000 afternoons ... of the 124 months  ..  
0.83  Traction machine  2  1  NULL   17 09.08.07.183000 afternoons ... of the 124 months  ...  
0.79  Door electromechanical source  2  1  NULL   17 09.08.17.683000 afternoons ... of the 124 months  ...  
0.438  Door lock relay  1  1  NULL   17 09.08.28.834000 afternoons ... of the 124 months  .. 
The client software of oracle database is installed on S105, client machine.Correct configuration oracle database
Tnsname.ora files under client directory, there is provided early warning system access address and access port, start the monitoring of serverside
Program, is connected with Matlab and data in oracle database is calculated by life prediction algorithm more than warning algorithm system, renewal
Data in oracle database, recording equipment last state.
An important factor for S2, understand elevator basic structure, determines the critical component for causing elevator faults, and screening influences elevator
Analogue simulation is carried out as the index for judging elevator faults, and to achievement data；
S201, understanding elevator configuration tractive driving, suspension arrangement, car frame and carriage, door system, weight balancing system,
Electric drive system, electrical system and safety system and relevant parameter simultaneously consult amount of literature data, design corresponding
Index is as shown in table 4, judges the health status of equipment in being calculated in the later stage by the change of achievement data；
The gloomy machineroomless lift TEEvolution1 index tables of 4. base of a fruit of table
S202, call oracle database design module Devicetype tables, Index tables and Basicdb tables.According to collection
To elevator data carry out big data analysis offline manner, form Basic tables and Indexdb tables deposit database, collection
Data as latest data, compared with other data in table, the operating status of analytical equipment；
S203, such as Fig. 8, with reference to the gloomy TEevolution1 elevator structures of the base of a fruit, to basis of the elevator faults in relation to factor
On, main study subject is divided into three big module of traction machine, steel wire rope and door system, and propose accordingly for each section module
Index, the comprehensive influence to elevator, the principal element for determining to cause elevator faults simultaneously determines that fault diagnosis index is door system
Middle door hanging foot wheel abrasion degree and wirerope diameter, and determine to hang in door system foot wheel abrasion degree and wirerope diameter threshold value,
When system equipment corresponding index as obtained by calculating the real time data of collection exceeds threshold range, you can judge that event occurs in equipment
Barrier；
S204, for change gear degree of wear index, quote in IBM algorithms and survey wear model, exceed original for predicting
The abrasion of beginning surface roughness depth.
1) basic assumption of wear model can be surveyed
It is ENERGY E that abrasion that each number of pass times produces is consumed and number of pass times N the two variables according to wear extent
Function this hypothesis.Relation between wear extent Q and number of pass times N and the ENERGY E consumed is the differential equation
Show according to the experiment, the relation of wear extent and number of pass times is
In formula, m is the given constant of system, and related document is pointed out, when unlubricated,
2) according to the energy of consumption and the relation of wear process, the abrasion of A types can be divided into and worn with Type B.
Wherein, A types abrasion refers to energy of rupture in wear process and remains constant, belongs to serious abrasion.It is mainly used in
Dry friction and case of heavy load.Do not introduce herein specifically.
Wherein, Type B abrasion refers to destroy in wear process and changes with the change of number of pass times, this is moderate turns
Move result.The door change gear abrasion of this research just belongs to such case.This abrasion can be represented with the following differential equation
In formula, C is the constant coefficient of system, and the wear extent that must be generally determined by experiment under a certain number of pass times is tried to achieve.
Zero abrasion and the models coupling that can survey abrasion can be got up try to achieve the analytic expression of C, N is number of pass times, and S is contact surface edge slip side
To length, Q is polishing scratch crosssectional area.
In this wear model, it has been assumed that destroying work(and τ_{mx}S is directly proportional, because the contact area of two articles is with abrasion
And change, so τ_{mx}S is not a constant.
S205, for wirerope diameter index, using finite element theory, the mutation analysis of calculated diameter.Steel wire rope it is straight
Vernier caliper measurement of the footpath with jaw, the width minimum of jaw as shown in Figure 9 will be enough to cross over two i.e. AB of adjacent stock
Between at least to include two strands, measure and i.e. measurement point A is carried out on the straight position outside steel wire rope end head 15m surpass apart from rope end C
Cross 15 meters, B points apart from rope end D more than 15 meters, at a distance of at least in the two sections of 1m, and same section it is orthogonal measure
Two values rotating vernier slide calliper rule, according to two vertical direction measurements of leftright and frontback, the average value of four measurement results, is steel
The measured diameter of cord.
S3, collection elevator real time data, structure dynamic bayesian network (DBN), and by Monte carlo algorithm to DBN nets
The each node of network, which solves, estimates probability of malfunction, forms CPT (probability of malfunction), early warning is made to the failure of elevator；
Secondary development is carried out using Matlab technological frames, Bayesian Networks Toolbox (FULLBNT) is used, using pattra leaves
This network algorithm, builds dynamic bayesian network, calculates the probability distribution of DBN (dynamic bayesian network), infers Escalator shape
State simultaneously predicts remaining life.
S301, Data Collection：Established according to data system in step S2, being called from database includes device history index
Indexdb tables, Devicetype tables and the Index table training dynamic bayesian networks of data simultaneously update the data equipment health in storehouse
Assess table ELEIDX, fault diagnosis table FAULTDB；
S302, determine node variable and causality：Network node represents stochastic variable, and the node of Bayesian network allows
It is any variable, node variable can be divided into chance variable, decision variable and auxiliary variable, can be continuous variable, also may be used
It is discrete variable.Determine node variable and causality be named including node variable, the description of each part of system and amount of degradation
Measurement, types of variables (discrete and continuous) selection；
S303, structure DBN：By analyzing each component coupled relation of Escalator, with reference to electric staircase failure diagnosis index extraction
Module, builds Escalator Bayesian network fault diagnosis model figure, and Figure 10 gives the Bayesian network fault diagnosis mould of elevator
Type figure, being lost in node medium between node insulation ag(e)ing has an arc, i.e. right when matrix represents Bayesian network in BNT
It is 1 to answer matrix (dielectric loss, insulation ag(e)ing) value, is otherwise 0.The situation of all nodes is all inputted into BNT matrixes, establishes pattra leaves
This net BNT, substitutes into learn_params () function as training set using obtained sample matrix and is learnt, study obtains bar
Part probability tables CPT.With the increase of number of training, the conditional probability table learnt increasingly approaches real conditional probability
Table；
The specific steps of elevator DBN model structure：
1) prior Bayesian network is built by fixed node and priori data.
2) call data to carry out parameter learning to DBN networks, build posterior Bayesian network.
Parameter Learning Algorithm function：Abundant parameter learning function is provided in BNT, in shortage of data, it is known that network is opened up
In the case of flutterring structure, we carry out parameter learning using the EM algorithms learn_params_em of successive ignition optimizing
1. the process of EM Algorithm for Solving optimum structures really converges to local optimum parameterProcess.First by with
Machine number generator (being applied in Matlab instruments) produces sample training collection, fills up loss data.Maximum likelihood is carried out to data to estimate
Meter learning simulation best suits the parameter of structure, comprises the following steps that：
E walks (expectation)：
Wherein E is desired value；D is training sample set；Represent the optimum structure parameter found, X_{i}Codomain be：q_{i}It is configuration π_{i}Put in order；N_{ijk}It is to meet variatevalue in data set DAnd π_{i}The bar of=j
Part frequency：y_{l}It is the data amount check lost in D；_{S} ^{h}It is that bayesian network structure selection is assumed.
M walks (maximum estimated)：
Maximal possibility estimation function：
MAP estimation function：
N′_{ijk}It is the abundant statistical factors of priori；Correspondingly, N_{ijk}It is the abundant statistical factors of sample data, i, j, k, h, q ∈ N.
2. SEM algorithms, the optimization algorithm of EM algorithms, structuring expectation maximization SEM algorithms.The application process of SEM algorithms
It is roughly divided into two step of search structure and parameter learning.The search inch of network structure is carried out, SEM algorithms are sufficiently counted using expectation
The factor replaces the sufficient statistical factors being not present so that the form of scoring functions has decomposability, then carries out local
Search, finds the structure of network scoring higher.Finally, the parameter of score maximum is screened in selected structure.
Its specific implementation procedure is as follows：The initial value of variable is set；The iteration since some initial Bayesian network；
Call joint tree reasoning algorithm to complete the reasoning computing to Bayesian network, draw current optimum network；Based on current optimal net
Network carries out completion using EM algorithms to data set, obtains complete data set to realize the maximization of parameter；Institute in calculating network
There is the summation of node value number；All network structures different from initial network are created, using these structures as candidate network
Structure；Given a mark to the network structure of abovementioned candidate with BIC score functions, found from selected network structure so that score
Maximum parameter；Go out the best network structure with data set fitting.
3) its probability of malfunction is calculated using Monte carlo algorithm to each node in DBN model, so that it is determined that all nets
CPT (probability distribution) table of network node.
S304, the probability for estimating according to trained Bayesian network unit failure, database is deposited into by result of calculation
In health Evaluation table and fault diagnosis table, storehouse is updated the data, realizes detection in real time, timely discovering device failure.
Elevator achievement data in S4, calling database, generates the sequence of abnormal elevator degree and run time, obtains exception
The function of time is spent, determining elevator by the abnormality degree function of time, run time is compared with abnormality degree time threshold, so that real
Existing Escalator life prediction algorithm.
Expertise is collected, writes expert system, according to the realtime analysis to system mode, by expert system to elevator
State is analyzed, and the service life is predicted.
S401, the CPT tables by step S3 Bayes fault diagnosis model and network node, from database facility health shape
Condition assesses table extraction equipment Realtime Monitoring Data, equipment health status is assessed, output equipment abnormality degree (probability of malfunction)；
Historical data in S402, calling health evaluating table, generates unit exception degree time series, is intended with Matlab curves
Close tool box CFTOOL and determine fitting function exponent number, obtain unit exception degree and the fitting function of run time, determine that equipment is transported
Capable general status, for the remaining life of computing device；
S403, call unit exception degree and the fitting function of run time, sets the corresponding abnormality degree threshold value of equipment scrapping
A, corresponding service life are x, obtain the abnormality degree b (b of equipment at this time to system real time fail probability analysis using expert system
≤ a), as b ＜ a, equipment run time y is calculated when abnormality degree is b by abnormality degree and run time fitting function, then is set
Standby remaining life w=xy；As b=a, remaining life 0, realizes and system lifetim is predicted.
Abovedescribed embodiment is the preferable embodiment of the present invention, but embodiments of the present invention and from abovedescribed embodiment
Limitation, other any Spirit Essences without departing from the present invention with made under principle change, modification, replacement, combine, simplification,
Equivalent substitute mode is should be, is included within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of Escalator equipment, it is characterised in that the fault prealarming and service life
Forecasting Methodology comprises the following steps：
S1, using SQL statement, establish database relational table, be stored in oracle database, Matlab is connect by ODBC bridgings
Oracle database accesses data, completes database sharing；
An important factor for S2, analysis elevator basic structure, determine the critical component for causing elevator faults, and screening influences elevator conduct
Judge the index of elevator faults, and analogue simulation is carried out to achievement data；
S3, collection elevator real time data, build dynamic bayesian network, and by Monte carlo algorithm to dynamic bayesian network
Each node, which solves, estimates probability of malfunction, forms CPT probabilities of malfunction, early warning is made to the failure of elevator；
Elevator achievement data in S4, calling oracle database, generates the sequence of abnormal elevator degree and run time, obtains different
The normal manner function of time, by the abnormality degree function of time determine elevator run time compared with abnormality degree time threshold so that
Realize Escalator life prediction algorithm.
2. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that institute
The step S1 stated includes：
S101, using SQL statement, with reference to pivot, decode in Oracle, programming apparatus health evaluating table ELEIDX, failure
Diagnostics table FAULTDB, data point table ELE forms, build up a series of relation tables by original point of interface table select, are stored in
In oracle database；
S102, base data and fault type according to equipment and part of appliance, using Devicetype tables, Index tables,
Indexdb tables, Basicdb tables, Basicdb tables structure data system, using hierarchical structure database design health evaluating with
Fault Diagnosis Database part, wherein, Devicetype tables storage device type and part of appliance and its corresponding numbering,
Index tables storage facilities refines index species, and the record of Indexdb tokens is in real time and recent index, Basicdb tables are used to record reality
When and the base data values collected in the recent period, Basic tables be used to express each base data classification and between each component and component index
Contact；
S103, utilize equipment fault evaluation index table Elec_Index and base data table Elec_Basic structure health evaluating number
According to storehouse, there are overlying relation between two tables, data are according to base data table in equipment fault evaluation index table Elec_Index
Elec_Basic is calculated, and the renewal of base data table causes the renewal of index table data, and two tables its capacity can add；
S104, build Fault Diagnosis Database using equipment fault diagnosis table Faultdb and base data table Elec_Basic, and two
There are overlying relation between table, data are calculated according to base data table Elec_Basic in equipment fault diagnosis table Faultdb,
The renewal of base data table causes the renewal of fault diagnosis table data, and two table capacity can add；
The client software of Oracle is installed, correctly under the client directory of configuration Oracle on S105, client machine
Tnsname.ora files, there is provided early warning system access address and access port, start the oracle listener of serverside；
S106, database and Matlab connect the data inquired about using exec in database by ODBC bridgings, and fetch functions return
Upper strata variable, update update the data health evaluating table and fault diagnosis table in storehouse.
3. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that institute
The step S2 stated includes：
S201, analysis elevator configuration tractive driving, suspension arrangement, car frame and carriage, door system, weight balancing system, electric power
Dragging system, electrical system and safety system, design objective；
S202, call Devicetype tables, Index tables and Basicdb tables in database, by the elevator data collected with offline
Mode carry out big data analysis, form Basic tables and Indexdb tables deposit database；
S203, with reference to the gloomy TEevolution1 elevator structures of the base of a fruit, research object is divided into traction machine, steel wire rope and door system, and
Corresponding index is proposed for each research object, and determines that fault diagnosis index is the change gear degree of wear and steel wire in door system
Rope diameter；
S204, for change gear degree of wear index, quote in IBM algorithms and survey wear model, exceed original table for predicting
The abrasion of surface roughness depth；
S205, for wirerope diameter index, using finite element theory, the mutation analysis of calculated diameter.
4. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that institute
The step S3 stated includes：
S301, Data Collection, call Indexdb tables, the Devicetype tables for including device history achievement data from database
With Index tables；
S302, determine network node variable and causality, determines that network node variable and causality take including node variable
The selection of the measurement, types of variables (discrete and continuous) of name, the description of each part of system and amount of degradation；
S303, structure elevator DBN model, analyze each component coupled relation of Escalator, with reference to electric staircase failure diagnosis index extraction
Module, builds Escalator Bayesian network fault diagnosis model figure, uses matrixstyle to represent Bayesian network in BNT, even
Node i has an arc to j, then (i, j) value is 1 in homography, is otherwise 0, establishes Bayesian network BNT, and using sample as
Training set substitutes into learn_params () function and is learnt, and study obtains conditional probability table CPT；
S304, the probability for estimating according to trained Bayesian network unit failure, database health shape is stored in by result of calculation
Condition is assessed in table and fault diagnosis table.
5. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that institute
The step S4 stated includes：
S401, the CPT tables by Bayes's fault diagnosis model and network node, carry from database facility health Evaluation table
Taking equipment Realtime Monitoring Data, assesses equipment health status, output equipment abnormality degree, i.e. probability of malfunction；
Historical data in S402, calling health evaluating table, generates unit exception degree time series, with Matlab curve matching works
Tool case CFTOOL determines fitting function exponent number, obtains unit exception degree and the fitting function of run time；
S403, the fitting function for calling unit exception degree and run time, set equipment scrapping corresponding abnormality degree threshold value a, right
The service life answered is x, and the abnormality degree b of equipment at this time, foundation are obtained to system real time fail probability analysis using expert system
The fitting function of unit exception degree and run time, calculates the remaining life w=x of equipment usage time y, then equipment at this time
Y, realizes and system lifetim is predicted.
6. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 3, it is characterised in that institute
The step S204 stated includes：
S2041, the basic assumption that wear model can be surveyed,
It is the letter for ENERGY E and number of pass times N the two variables that abrasion that each number of pass times produces is consumed according to wear extent
This is counted it is assumed that the relation between wear extent Q and number of pass times N and the ENERGY E consumed is the differential equation
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S2042, according to the energy of consumption and the relation of wear process, the abrasion of A types can be divided into and worn with Type B, wherein, the abrasion of A types
Energy of rupture remains unchanged in wear process, belongs to heavy wear, and applied to dry friction and case of heavy load, Type B abrasion is being worn
During destroy as number of pass times changes and change, be moderate transfer as a result, being worn for door change gear, under abrasion use
The row differential equation represents
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Get up to try to achieve the analytic expression of C with the models coupling that can survey abrasion, N is number of pass times, and S is length of the contact surface along glide direction, Q
For polishing scratch crosssectional area,
It is assumed that destroy work(and τ_{mx}S is directly proportional, and the contact area of two articles changes with abrasion, therefore τ_{mx}S is not a constant,
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7. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 3, it is characterised in that institute
The step S205 stated is specific as follows：
Vernier caliper measurement of the diameter of steel wire rope with jaw, the width minimum of jaw will be enough adjacent across two
Stock, measures and is carried out on the straight position outside steel wire rope end head 15m, apart at least in the two sections of 1m, and in same section
Two values, the measured diameter of the average value of four measurement results, as steel wire rope are measured orthogonally.
8. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 4, it is characterised in that institute
It is specific as follows that elevator DBN model is built in the step S303 stated：
S3031, by fixed node and priori data build prior Bayesian network；
S3032, call data to carry out parameter learning to DBN networks, builds posterior Bayesian network；
S3033, calculate its probability of malfunction to each node in DBN model using Monte carlo algorithm, determines allnetwork node
CPT probability distribution tables.
9. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 8, it is characterised in that institute
The parameter learning stated is to be learnt using the EM algorithms learn_params_em of successive ignition optimizing, wherein, EM Algorithm for Solving
The process of optimum structure is to converge to local optimum parameterProcess, by randomizer produce sample training collection, fill out
Mend and lose data, data are carried out with the parameter that maximal possibility estimation learning simulation best suits structure, is comprised the following steps that：
E is walked, that is, it is expected：
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<mi>h</mi>
</msup>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>(</mo>
<msub>
<mi>N</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
<mi>k</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
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N′_{ijk}It is the abundant statistical factors of priori, N_{ijk}It is the abundant statistical factors of sample data, i, j, k, h, q ∈ N.
10. the fault prealarming and lifespan prediction method of a kind of Escalator equipment according to claim 8, it is characterised in that
The parameter learning is to be learnt using the SEM algorithms of successive ignition optimizing, wherein, the specific implementation procedure of SEM algorithms
It is as follows：The initial value of variable is set；The iteration since some initial Bayesian network；Joint tree reasoning algorithm is called to complete
Reasoning computing to Bayesian network, draws current optimum network；Based on current optimum network using EM algorithms to data set into
Row completion, obtains complete data set to realize the maximization of parameter；The summation of all node value numbers in calculating network；Wound
The network structure different from initial network is built, using these structures as candidate network structure；With BIC score functions to abovementioned candidate
Network structure give a mark, from selected network structure find so that score maximum parameter；Go out and data set fitting
Best network structure.
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