CN107909291A - A kind of power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes - Google Patents
A kind of power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes Download PDFInfo
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- CN107909291A CN107909291A CN201711286804.2A CN201711286804A CN107909291A CN 107909291 A CN107909291 A CN 107909291A CN 201711286804 A CN201711286804 A CN 201711286804A CN 107909291 A CN107909291 A CN 107909291A
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- scene
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- risk
- circuit breakers
- integrated form
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- 238000002955 isolation Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 40
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 25
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 17
- 230000003068 static effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- 238000012423 maintenance Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 7
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000007257 malfunction Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 239000000203 mixture Substances 0.000 claims 1
- 238000000638 solvent extraction Methods 0.000 claims 1
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 5
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007812 deficiency Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012806 monitoring device Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000002360 preparation method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000004575 stone Substances 0.000 description 1
Classifications
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes, this method is on the basis of the more scenes of integrated form isolation circuit breakers difference operating status are obtained by multi-scenario technique, carries out risk analysis to scene respectively.For static maximum probability scene, by losing load, load rejection situation, the replacement of integrated form isolation circuit breakers or maintenance cost etc. come calculation risk.For dynamic small probability scene, on the basis of corresponding risk indicator is calculated, real-time running data is had also combined, influence of the probability change of scene to risk is analyzed, ensure that the accuracy of small probability scene risk assessment.Have the following advantages：Risk analysis has been carried out to the more scenes of integrated form isolation circuit breakers after multi-scenario technique is handled, for small probability scene, has analyzed influence of the probability change of scene to risk.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electrical equipment technical field, is specially a kind of electricity of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes
Net methods of risk assessment.
Background technology
At present, integrated form isolation circuit breakers are electric control appliances important in intelligent substation, its operating status is to electricity
The safety and stablization influence on system operation of Force system is great.Integrated form isolation circuit breakers are integrated with breaker in traditional substation, ground connection
The elements such as switch, disconnecting switch, current transformer, monitoring device, its structure is compared in the past more complicated.Therefore, how to collection
Accepted way of doing sth isolation circuit breakers operating status in power grid carries out accurate description and to the potential wind of power grid of the isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form
Danger carries out the problem of analysis is one to be resolved.
In existing power grid risk assessment method, if mainly with the probability occurred with risk and the harm of generation consequence
Measure to calculate static risk value.In the power grid risk assessment of the isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form, can using multi-scenario technique come
The different probability operating status of integrated form isolation circuit breakers is described, by the generation and reduction of scene, it is disconnected to obtain integrated form isolation
Maximum probability scene under the device difference operating status combination of road.These scenes can represent typical case's fortune of integrated form isolation circuit breakers
Row state, can carry out risk assessment using these typical scenes to the power grid of the isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form.
More scenes of integrated form isolation circuit breakers operating status mainly use historical failure statistics to generate,
In general more scene analysis, primarily to the risk indicator under each scene is calculated, obtained simply some Static State Indexes, not
Risk under different scenes and its influence factor are made a concrete analysis of, especially probability is small but to the serious field of electric network influencing
Scape.For more scene analysis of integrated form isolation circuit breakers, the risk for not only needing to calculate maximum probability scene static state refers to
Mark, also need to be analyzed for some small probability scenes with reference to practical operation situation so that more objective assessment integrated form every
From breaker risk status, the maintenance strategy for integrated form isolation circuit breakers is formulated and optimization lays the first stone.
The content of the invention
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of power grid of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes
Methods of risk assessment, in the case where integrated form isolation circuit breakers scene has generated, it is all kinds of to integrated form isolation circuit breakers not
Risk analysis is carried out with operating status under probability and calculates respective risk value.In addition to the static probability large scene, it is also contemplated that potential
The big scene of dynamic probability, has made a concrete analysis of the influence of its risk status and the probability change generation of scene, has more objectively commented
Estimate power grid risk situation.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is achieved by the following technical programs：A kind of containing based on more scenes integrates
Formula isolation circuit breakers power grid risk assessment method, comprises the following steps：
Step 1, it is known that obtain integrated form by historical data and utilization multi-scenario technique (scene is generated and cut down) and isolate
More scenes that breaker is run in power grid, i.e., the combination of multiple integrated form isolation circuit breakers different operating statuses in power grid,
Due to normal operating condition do not influence risk assessment as a result, therefore only consider malfunction under scene.All fault scenes
Set S={ s1、s2、s3…sn, P (si) represent the probability that i-th of scene occurs, scene is drawn according to fault scenes probability of happening
It is divided into maximum probability scene and small probability scene, wherein maximum probability scene collection is combined into Sh={ s1、s2…sj, small probability scene set
For Sl={ sj、sj+1…sn, risk is expressed as R.
Step 2, analyze static maximum probability scene, maximum probability scene quantity is relatively more, caused by risk it is relatively small, it is right
Overall risk assessment result has considerable influence.The more scenes of a variety of operating statuses formed for more integrated form isolation circuit breakers,
Can be by losing load, load rejection situation, the replacement of integrated form isolation circuit breakers or maintenance cost etc. come calculation risk.
Step 3, static small probability scene is also to be generated by history data, and situation about actually occurring is seldom.With
Static maximum probability scene is different, when more integrated form isolation circuit breakers failures occur again in operation of power networks, these scenes
Actual probabilities larger fluctuation can occur, i.e., in power grid continuous service, the corresponding probability of small probability scene actually can be with
The appearance of emergency situations and change, and in the case where causing consequence to compare serious conditions, the fluctuation of value-at-risk also can be more obvious.
Risk assessment to small probability scene, with greater need for historical data and real time data is combined, considers small probability scene
Probability changes the shadow to risk, that is, analyzes the dynamic probability of scene.When there is a small probability scene in real-time monitoring, generally
Rate, which changes, is represented by venture influence degreeΔR(Sl) it is small probability scene value-at-risk variable quantity, Δ P (Sl)
The probability variable quantity occurred for scene.If k is less than certain certain value, it is believed that influence is ignored, when more than setting,
Then need specifically to assess dynamic small probability scene risk, so as to ensure the powernet wind of the isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form
The accuracy of dangerous probability evaluation method of failure simultaneously provides targetedly maintenance strategy.
Beneficial effect：The invention has the advantages that：1. the integrated form isolation open circuit pair after multi-scenario technique is handled
The more scenes of device have carried out risk analysis；It is perfect to dynamic 2. judged probability influence of the change to risk of small probability scene
The risk analysis of small probability scene.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the method for the present invention flow chart.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the attached drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation describes, it is clear that described embodiment is only part of the embodiment of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained every other without making creative work
Embodiment, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
Embodiment：
A kind of power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes, comprises the following steps：
Step 1：It is respectively x comprising m platform integrated form isolation circuit breakers it is assumed that in a certain regional power grid1、x2、……xm,
According to multi-scenario technique, n fault scenes, scene set S={ s are obtained1、s2、s3…sn, P (si) represent what i-th of scene occurred
Probability.It is assumed that with P0=0.01 is boundary line delimitation scene, respectively obtains maximum probability scene and small probability scene, is denoted as S respectivelyh=
{s1、s2…sjAnd Sl={ sj、sj+1…sn}。
Step 2：Risk analysis is carried out to static maximum probability scene, these scenes are generally 1~2 integrated form isolation open circuit
Device breaks down, to lose load as risk assessment index, C (si) it is that scene i is to ensure power grid security under a situation arises
The load of excision required for stable operation.The online risk status of power grid is calculated, byObtain wind
Dangerous situation.
Step 3：Risk analysis is carried out to dynamic small probability scene, these scenes are generally multiple integrated form isolation circuit breakers
Break down, caused by coverage it is larger.According to the calculating of step 2, the risk status of small probability scene is first obtained, i.e.,With reference to real-time running data, when the extreme of more integrated form isolation circuit breakers failures occurs
During scene, the probability for calculating small probability scene is changed to venture influence degree k, according to the standard of setting, judges the fluctuation of risk
Situation, so as to further analyze the risk level under the scene, specifically calculates risk level and combination under small probability scene
Actual operating data obtains influencing risk factors, and suitable maintenance strategy is formulated further directed to this scene.
Although an embodiment of the present invention has been shown and described, for the ordinary skill in the art, can be with
Understanding without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention can carry out these embodiments a variety of changes, modification, replace
And modification, the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended.
Claims (1)
- A kind of 1. power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes, it is characterised in that including following Step：Step 1, integrated form isolation circuit breakers are obtained with reduction technology transported in power grid by historical data and using scene generation Capable more scenes, i.e., the combination of multiple integrated form isolation circuit breakers different operating statuses in power grid, due to normal operating condition Therefore do not influence risk assessment as a result, only consider the scene under malfunction, all fault scenes set S={ s1、s2、 s3...sn, P (si) represent the probability that i-th of scene occurs；Step 2, it is maximum probability scene and small probability scene, wherein maximum probability field by scene partitioning according to fault scenes probability of happening Jing Ji is combined into Sh={ s1、s2...sj, small probability scene collection is combined into Sl={ sj、sj+1...sn, risk is expressed as R；Step 3, static maximum probability scene is analyzed, for more of a variety of operating statuses of more integrated form isolation circuit breakers compositions Scape, by losing, load, load rejection situation, integrated form isolation circuit breakers are replaced or maintenance cost is used for calculation risk；Step 4, the risk assessment to small probability scene considers small probability scene, it is necessary to reference to historical data and real time data Probability changes the shadow to risk, that is, analyzes the dynamic probability of scene, when there is a small probability scene in real-time monitoring, generally Rate, which changes, is represented by venture influence degreeΔR(Sl) it is small probability scene value-at-risk variable quantity, Δ P (Sl) The probability variable quantity occurred for scene；If k is less than certain certain value, it is believed that influence is ignored, when more than setting, Then need specifically to assess dynamic small probability scene risk, so as to ensure the powernet wind of the isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form The accuracy of dangerous probability evaluation method of failure simultaneously provides targetedly maintenance strategy.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201711286804.2A CN107909291A (en) | 2017-12-07 | 2017-12-07 | A kind of power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes |
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN201711286804.2A CN107909291A (en) | 2017-12-07 | 2017-12-07 | A kind of power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes |
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| CN201711286804.2A Pending CN107909291A (en) | 2017-12-07 | 2017-12-07 | A kind of power grid risk assessment method of isolation circuit breakers containing integrated form based on more scenes |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109636209A (en) * | 2018-12-18 | 2019-04-16 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of online methods of risk assessment of intelligent isolation circuit breakers based on big data analysis to electric network influencing |
| CN116545770A (en) * | 2023-07-03 | 2023-08-04 | 上海观安信息技术股份有限公司 | Scene detection method, device, medium and equipment |
-
2017
- 2017-12-07 CN CN201711286804.2A patent/CN107909291A/en active Pending
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109636209A (en) * | 2018-12-18 | 2019-04-16 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of online methods of risk assessment of intelligent isolation circuit breakers based on big data analysis to electric network influencing |
| CN109636209B (en) * | 2018-12-18 | 2022-08-30 | 国家电网有限公司 | Online risk assessment method for influence of intelligent isolation breaker on power grid based on big data analysis |
| CN116545770A (en) * | 2023-07-03 | 2023-08-04 | 上海观安信息技术股份有限公司 | Scene detection method, device, medium and equipment |
| CN116545770B (en) * | 2023-07-03 | 2023-09-01 | 上海观安信息技术股份有限公司 | Scene detection method, device, medium and equipment |
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Application publication date: 20180413 |
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