CN107909240A - Pipeline failure method of determining probability and device - Google Patents

Pipeline failure method of determining probability and device Download PDF

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CN107909240A
CN107909240A CN201710941715.0A CN201710941715A CN107909240A CN 107909240 A CN107909240 A CN 107909240A CN 201710941715 A CN201710941715 A CN 201710941715A CN 107909240 A CN107909240 A CN 107909240A
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damage
score value
disaster
grade
failure probability
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CN107909240B (en
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杨玉锋
张华兵
王新
张强
张希祥
周利剑
郑洪龙
程万洲
魏然然
刘硕
薛鲁宁
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China Petroleum and Natural Gas Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of pipeline failure method of determining probability and device, belong to oil and gas pipeline system technology field.This method includes：Third party damage failure probability is determined based on types of damage, damage plague grade and multiple damage safeguard procedures grades；Geological disaster failure probability is determined based on the corresponding disaster plague grade of Disasters Type, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade；Operating pressure and pipe thickness based on Target pipe, and at least one outer corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades determine outer corrosion failure probability；Internal corrosion failure probability is determined based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and internal corrosion plague grade and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades.And then based on third party damage failure probability, geological disaster failure probability, outer corrosion failure probability and internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing, improves the accuracy that Target pipe risk class identifies.

Description

Pipeline failure method of determining probability and device
Technical field
The present invention relates to oil and gas pipeline system technology field, more particularly to a kind of pipeline failure method of determining probability and dress Put.
Background technology
During oil-gas transportation, in order to ensure the safe operation of Target pipe, the wind of Target pipe can be determined in time Dangerous grade, and then the risk class based on Target pipe formulates control running protection measure in time.Due to the risk of Target pipe Grade is built upon on the basis of the failure probability of Target pipe, that is to say, in the feelings that Target pipe failure consequence is basically identical Under condition, the failure probability of Target pipe is bigger, and risk class is higher, and failure probability is smaller, and risk class is lower.Target pipe Failure probability refers under the influence of a variety of hazard factors, causes the size of the possibility of Target pipe leakage, wherein, a variety of danger Noxa element may be that damage from third-party, geological disaster, outer corrosion failure and internal corrosion destroy.Therefore, there is an urgent need for a kind of pipeline failure Method of determining probability, in the operational process of Target pipe, is determined the failure probability of Target pipe, and then determines mesh Mark the risk class of pipeline.
In correlation technique, the main failure probability that Target pipe is determined using Kent point system.Specifically, target will be influenced The hazard factor of pipeline failure is divided into damage from third-party, outer corrosion failure, internal corrosion destruction and geological disaster, assuming that each wind On the basis of dangerous factor is separate, the score value of all kinds of hazard factors is determined respectively, and sets the score value of all kinds of hazard factors to weigh Weight.And then score value and score value weight based on all kinds of hazard factors, it is weighted to obtain Target pipe failure probability, namely It is that the failure probability of Target pipe is determined using the method for weighted sum.
However, when determining the failure probability of Target pipe by the above method, due to direct for multiple hazard factors The method of weighted sum is employed, so as to cause smaller to the failure effect of Target pipe in certain a kind of hazard factor, and other are endangered When noxa element is larger to the failure effect of Target pipe, risk of Target pipe etc. is determined in the failure probability based on Target pipe In the case of level, in fact it could happen that influence the omission of less hazard factor or occur deviation etc. with actual hazard factor situation and show As.
The content of the invention
It is smaller to the failure effect of Target pipe in order to solve the hazard factor in correlation technique, so that based on target tube When the failure probability in road determines the risk class of Target pipe, which easily omits or goes out with actual hazard factor situation The problem of existing deviation, an embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of pipeline failure method of determining probability and device.The technical solution It is as follows：
On the one hand, there is provided a kind of pipeline failure method of determining probability, the described method includes：
The corresponding damage plague grade of types of damage and multiple damage protection for determining third party damage on Target pipe are arranged Apply grade, and determined based on the types of damage, the damage plague grade and the multiple damage safeguard procedures grade described The third party damage failure probability of Target pipe；
Determine the corresponding disaster plague grade of Disasters Type of geological disaster on the Target pipe, disaster leakage class and Disaster prevention measure grade, and based on the disaster plague grade, the disaster leakage class and described disaster prevention measure etc. Level determines the geological disaster failure probability of the Target pipe；
Determine the operating pressure and pipe thickness of the Target pipe, and outer corrosion is corresponding extremely on the Target pipe Corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades outside few one, based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, And at least one outer corrosion plague grade and the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade determine the Target pipe Outer corrosion failure probability；
Determine the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades on the Target pipe, And the operating pressure and the pipe thickness are based on, and the internal corrosion plague grade and the multiple internal corrosion protection are arranged Apply the internal corrosion failure probability that grade determines the Target pipe；
Based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and The internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing.
Alternatively, it is described to be based on the types of damage, the damage plague grade and the multiple damage safeguard procedures etc. Level determines the third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe, including：
Acquisition pair in correspondence based on the types of damage between the types of damage of storage and damage leakage score value The damage leakage score value answered；
The correspondence occurred between score value from the damage plague grade of storage and is damaged based on the damage plague grade It is middle to obtain corresponding damage generation score value；
Damage safeguard procedures grade and damage safeguard procedures point based on the multiple damage safeguard procedures grade from storage Corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value is obtained in correspondence between value respectively；
Score value and the multiple damage safeguard procedures score values acquired are occurred based on the damage leakage score value, the damage The third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe is determined according to the following first specified formula：
First specifies formula：PThr=TThr×LThr×(1-MThr)
Wherein：PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability；TThrRefer to that score value occurs for the damage；LThrRefer to institute State damage leakage score value；MThrRefer to the sum of the multiple damage safeguard procedures score value.
Alternatively, it is described based on the disaster plague grade, the disaster leakage class and described disaster prevention measure etc. Level determines the geological disaster failure probability of the Target pipe, including：
The correspondence between score value occurs from the disaster plague grade and disaster of storage based on the disaster plague grade It is middle to obtain corresponding disaster generation score value；
Based on the disaster leakage class from the correspondence between the disaster leakage class and disaster of storage leakage score value It is middle to obtain corresponding disaster leakage score value；
Based on the disaster prevention measure grade from the disaster prevention measure grade of storage and disaster prevention measure score value it Between correspondence in obtain corresponding disaster prevention measure score value；
Score value, disaster leakage score value and the disaster prevention measure score value are occurred according to following the based on the disaster Two specified formula determine the geological disaster failure probability of the Target pipe：
Second specifies formula：PGeo=TGeo×LGeo×(1-MGeo)
Wherein：PGeoRefer to the geological disaster failure probability；TGeoRefer to that score value occurs for the disaster；LGeoRefer to described Disaster leaks score value；MGeoRefer to the disaster prevention measure score value.
Alternatively, it is described to be based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and at least one outer corrosion occurs Grade and the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade determine the outer corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe, including：
Score value is occurred with outer corrosion from the outer corrosion plague grade of storage based at least one outer corrosion plague grade Between correspondence in obtain respectively it is corresponding it is outer corrosion occur score value；
Based on outer corrosion protection steps grade of the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade from storage and outer corrosion protection Corresponding outer corrosion protection steps score value is obtained in correspondence between measure score value respectively；
Score value and multiple is occurred based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, at least one outer corrosion for acquiring Outer corrosion protection steps score value determines the outer corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following 3rd specified formula：
3rd specifies formula：
Wherein：PEcRefer to the outer corrosion failure probability；CEcRefer to that at least one outer corrosion occurs in score value most Big score value；MEcRefer to the sum of the multiple outer corrosion protection steps score value；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the thickness of pipe wall Degree.
Alternatively, it is described to be based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and the internal corrosion plague grade and institute The internal corrosion failure probability that multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades determine the Target pipe is stated, including：
Pair based on the internal corrosion plague grade between the internal corrosion plague grade of storage and internal corrosion generation score value It should be related to and middle obtain corresponding internal corrosion respectively score value occurs；
Protected based on the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade from the internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade of storage with internal corrosion Corresponding protection score value is obtained in correspondence between measure score value respectively；
Prevented based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, the internal corrosion generation score value acquired and multiple internal corrosions Shield measure score value determines the internal corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following 4th specified formula：
4th specifies formula：
Wherein：PIcRefer to the internal corrosion failure probability；CIcRefer to that score value occurs for the internal corrosion；MIcRefer to described more The sum of a internal corrosion safeguard procedures score value；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
Alternatively, it is described based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion Failure probability and the internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing, bag Include：
Based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and The internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined according to the following 5th specified formula：
5th specifies formula：F=1- (1-PThr)(1-PGeo)(1-PEc)(1-PIc)
Wherein：F refers to the failure probability of the Target pipe, PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability, PGeoIt is Refer to the geological disaster failure probability, PEcRefer to the outer corrosion failure probability, PIcRefer to the internal corrosion failure probability.
On the other hand, there is provided a kind of determining device of pipeline failure probability, described device include：
First determining module, the corresponding damage plague grade of types of damage for determining third party damage on Target pipe Safeguard procedures grades are damaged with multiple, and based on the types of damage, the damage plague grade and the multiple damage protection Measure grade determines the third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe；
Second determining module, the corresponding disaster generation of Disasters Type for determining geological disaster on the Target pipe etc. Level, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade, and it is based on the disaster plague grade, the disaster leakage class and institute State the geological disaster failure probability that disaster prevention measure grade determines the Target pipe；
3rd determining module, for determining the operating pressure and pipe thickness of the Target pipe, and the target tube The outer corresponding at least one outer corrosion plague grade of corrosion and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades on road, based on the operation pressure Power and the pipe thickness, and it is described it is at least one it is outer corrosion plague grade and the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade it is true The outer corrosion failure probability of the fixed Target pipe；
4th determining module, for determining on the Target pipe the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple interior Corrosion protection steps grade, and the operating pressure and the pipe thickness are based on, and the internal corrosion plague grade and institute State the internal corrosion failure probability that multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades determine the Target pipe；
5th determining module, for based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, described Outer corrosion failure probability and the internal corrosion failure probability, determine that the failure of the Target pipe is general by Boolean algebra or computing Rate.
Alternatively, first determining module includes：
First acquisition unit, for from the types of damage of storage and being damaged based on the types of damage between leakage score value Corresponding damage leakage score value is obtained in correspondence；
Second acquisition unit, for occurring to divide with damage from the damage plague grade of storage based on the damage plague grade Corresponding damage is obtained in correspondence between value score value occurs；
3rd acquiring unit, for based on the multiple damage damage safeguard procedures grade of the safeguard procedures grade from storage Corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value is obtained in correspondence between damage safeguard procedures score value respectively；
First determination unit, for score value to occur based on the damage leakage score value, the damage and acquires more A damage safeguard procedures score value determines the third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following first specified formula：
First specifies formula：PThr=TThr×LThr×(1-MThr)
Wherein：PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability；TThrRefer to that score value occurs for the damage；LThrRefer to institute State damage leakage score value；MThrRefer to the sum of the multiple damage safeguard procedures score value.
Alternatively, second determining module includes：
4th acquiring unit, for occurring to divide with disaster from the disaster plague grade of storage based on the disaster plague grade Corresponding disaster is obtained in correspondence between value score value occurs；
5th acquiring unit, for based on disaster leakage class of the disaster leakage class from storage and disaster leakage point Corresponding disaster leakage score value is obtained in correspondence between value；
6th acquiring unit, for the disaster prevention measure grade and calamity based on the disaster prevention measure grade from storage Corresponding disaster prevention measure score value is obtained in correspondence between evil safeguard procedures score value；
Second determination unit, for score value, disaster leakage score value and the disaster prevention to occur based on the disaster Measure score value determines the geological disaster failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following second specified formula：
Second specifies formula：PGeo=TGeo×LGeo×(1-MGeo)
Wherein：PGeoRefer to the geological disaster failure probability；TGeoRefer to that score value occurs for the disaster；LGeoRefer to described Disaster leaks score value；MGeoRefer to the disaster prevention measure score value.
Alternatively, the 3rd determining module is mainly used for：
Score value is occurred with outer corrosion from the outer corrosion plague grade of storage based at least one outer corrosion plague grade Between correspondence in obtain respectively it is corresponding it is outer corrosion occur score value；
Based on outer corrosion protection steps grade of the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade from storage and outer corrosion protection Corresponding outer corrosion protection steps score value is obtained in correspondence between measure score value respectively；
Score value and multiple is occurred based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, at least one outer corrosion for acquiring Outer corrosion protection steps score value determines the outer corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following 3rd specified formula：
3rd specifies formula：
Wherein：PEcRefer to the outer corrosion failure probability；CEcRefer to that at least one outer corrosion occurs in score value most Big score value；MEcRefer to the sum of the multiple outer corrosion protection steps score value；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the thickness of pipe wall Degree.
Alternatively, the 4th determining module is mainly used for：
Pair based on the internal corrosion plague grade between the internal corrosion plague grade of storage and internal corrosion generation score value It should be related to and middle obtain corresponding internal corrosion respectively score value occurs；
Protected based on the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade from the internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade of storage with internal corrosion Corresponding protection score value is obtained in correspondence between measure score value respectively；
Prevented based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, the internal corrosion generation score value acquired and multiple internal corrosions Shield measure score value determines the internal corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following 4th specified formula：
4th specifies formula：
Wherein：PIcRefer to the internal corrosion failure probability；CIcRefer to that score value occurs for the internal corrosion；MIcRefer to described more The sum of a internal corrosion safeguard procedures score value；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
Alternatively, the 5th determining module is mainly used for：
Based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and The internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined according to the following 5th specified formula：
5th specifies formula：F=1- (1-PThr)(1-PGeo)(1-PEc)(1-PIc)
Wherein：F refers to the failure probability of the Target pipe, PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability, PGeoIt is Refer to the geological disaster failure probability, PEcRefer to the outer corrosion failure probability, PIcRefer to the internal corrosion failure probability.
The beneficial effect that technical solution provided in an embodiment of the present invention is brought is：In the embodiment of the present invention, for third party Every class hazard factor in damage, geological disaster, outer corrosion and four class hazard factor of internal corrosion, is occurred based on the hazard factor Possibility, the hazard factor cause the possibility that Target pipe leaks after occurring, and for the protection that the hazard factor is taken The possibility of measure, comprehensive analysis determine the possibility that the hazard factor causes Target pipe to fail, and then based on the harm per class Factor causes the possibility that Target pipe fails, and the failure probability of Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing, in order to When certain one kind hazard factor is smaller to the failure effect of Target pipe, can be showed by the size order of the failure probability Out, avoid the omission to such hazard factor or situation about not being inconsistent with actual hazard factor from occurring, improve Target pipe wind The accuracy that dangerous grade determines.
Brief description of the drawings
To describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, make required in being described below to embodiment Attached drawing is briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, for For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other can also be obtained according to these attached drawings Attached drawing.
Figure 1A is a kind of flow chart of pipeline failure method of determining probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Figure 1B is a kind of flow chart of the determination process of third party damage failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 1 C are a kind of flow charts of the determination process of geological disaster failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 1 D are a kind of flow charts of the determination process of outer corrosion failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 1 E are a kind of flow charts of the determination process of internal corrosion failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2A is the structure diagram of the determining device of the first pipeline failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 B are the structure diagrams of the determining device of second of pipeline failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 C are the structure diagrams of the determining device of the third pipeline failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
To make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with attached drawing to embodiment party of the present invention Formula is described in further detail.
Figure 1A is a kind of flow chart of pipeline failure method of determining probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention.Referring to Figure 1A, This method can be applied to terminal, and this method comprises the following steps.
Step 101：Determine the corresponding damage plague grade of types of damage of third party damage on Target pipe and multiple damages Bad safeguard procedures grade, and mesh is determined based on the types of damage, the damage plague grade and the plurality of damage safeguard procedures grade Mark the third party damage failure probability of pipeline.
Specifically, the types of damage that third party damage can be included due to the influence factor of third party damage failure probability is sent out Raw possibility size, the types of damage cause the possibility size and taken based on third party damage more that Target pipe leaks The possibility size of a damage safeguard procedures, and in the embodiment of the present invention, possibility size can be by the score value of setting come table Show, that is to say, it may be determined that score value occurs for the corresponding damage of the damage plague grade, determines the corresponding damage leakage of types of damage Score value, and determine the corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value of the plurality of damage safeguard procedures grade, and then based on definite each Score value calculates the third party damage failure probability of Target pipe.Referring to Figure 1B, next can be walked with 1011- as follows The determination process of the third party damage failure probability of rapid 1016 pairs of Target pipes describes in detail.
Step 1011：Determine the types of damage damage plague grade corresponding with the types of damage of third party damage.
The types of damage of third party damage
Since third party damage can be that earth's surface excavation, underground construction engineering, dredging of digging sand are fetched earth, rolled, drilling hole of oil stolen (gas), pipeline ground installation, explore any of a variety of types of damage such as probing and other third party's construction activities, and each The possibility that kind types of damage causes Target pipe to fail by third party damage is of different sizes.Therefore, damaged in definite third party During bad types of damage, the types of damage of third party damage can be first determined.Specifically, terminal can show a variety of damage classes Type, when a variety of types of damage of terminal based on display receive selection instruction, selected damage class is instructed by the selection Type is determined as the types of damage of third party damage.It that is to say, pin is selected in a variety of types of damage that user can show from terminal Instructed to the types of damage of the third party damage of Target pipe, and by predetermined registration operation triggering selection, when terminal receives the choosing When selecting instruction, selected types of damage is instructed to be determined as the types of damage of third party damage the selection.
Wherein, predetermined registration operation can be clicked, double-clicks or slided, and it is not limited in the embodiment of the present invention.
The corresponding damage plague grade of the types of damage
It is different in the possibility that the types of damage occurs for each types of damage, it that is to say, the damage of the types of damage When bad plague grade is different, the possibility size that Target pipe fails is caused also to differ.Therefore, third party damage is being determined Types of damage after, it may be determined that the corresponding damage plague grade of the types of damage.Specifically, terminal can show the damage class Multiple damage plague grades of type, when terminal, which is based on the plurality of damage plague grade, receives selection instruction, the selection is referred to Selected damage plague grade is made to be determined as the corresponding damage plague grade of the types of damage.It that is to say, user can be from end Hold in multiple damage plague grades of display and select the corresponding damage plague grade of the types of damage, and triggered by predetermined registration operation Selection instruction, when terminal receives selection instruction, instructs selected damage plague grade to be determined as damaging class the selection The corresponding damage plague grade of type.Wherein, the plurality of damage plague grade is used to indicate that the types of damage causes Target pipe to lose The grade of effect.
Such as when the types of damage that terminal determines is drilling hole of oil stolen (gas), the damage plague grade of drilling hole of oil stolen (gas) It can include four district occurred frequently, Yi Faqu, accidental area and off chance grades.At this time, terminal can show drilling hole of oil stolen District occurred frequently, Yi Faqu, accidental area and the off chance of (gas), when user is from district occurred frequently, Yi Faqu, accidental area and minimum possibility Property in when selecting district occurred frequently, that is to say, terminal receives selection instruction and the selection to instruct the damage plague grade of selection be high Area is sent out, at this time, district occurred frequently can be determined as the damage plague grade of drilling hole of oil stolen (gas) by terminal.
Wherein, district occurred frequently refers to country or local emphasis regulation region, and stolen (gas) number occurred in nearly 3 years is not small In 1.Yi Faqu refers to drilling hole of oil stolen (gas) once occurred in history, and possesses the region of one of following five kinds of situations, the first Situation：Periphery traffic convenience, and the region is more hidden；The second situation：Pumped (conveying) medium is the conduit region of product oil；The third Situation：There is region existing for refinery or oil field gathering and transportation pipeline in the range of each 5km in crude oil pipeline central lines of track both sides；4th kind of feelings Condition：With oil pipeline is parallel or the gas pipeline region that intersects；5th kind of situation：Near Pipelines have the region of rental house.It is accidental Area refers to drilling hole of oil stolen did not occurred in history, but possesses the region of one of above-mentioned five kinds of situations.Off chance refers to vehicle The region passed in and out is not easy, or pipeline is located at the area without drilling hole of oil stolen (gas) operating condition such as river, marsh, directional drilling crossing section Domain.
Step 1012：Determine multiple damage safeguard procedures grades of third party damage.
In order to avoid third party damage causes the failure of Target pipe, can be taken based on third party damage corresponding a variety of Safeguard procedures are damaged, which can be line walking frequency, line walking effect, warning tape, buried depth of pipeline, ground mark Knowledge, government's attitude, common people's attitude, early warning system, pipe protection publicity etc..Due to every kind of implementation dynamics for damaging safeguard procedures not Together, prevent that the possibility size that Target pipe fails is also different, therefore, determining the third party damage failure probability of Target pipe Before, it may be determined that the corresponding multiple damage safeguard procedures of a variety of damage safeguard procedures of third party damage.
Specifically, after the types of damage damage plague grade corresponding with the types of damage that third party damage is determined, Terminal can show a variety of damage safeguard procedures, when a variety of damage safeguard procedures of the terminal based on display receive selection instruction When, the selection is instructed into the selected one damage safeguard procedures damaged safeguard procedures and be determined as third party damage, afterwards eventually End can show multiple damage safeguard procedures grades of the damage safeguard procedures, when multiple damages protection of the terminal based on display is arranged When applying grade and receiving selection instruction, selected damage safeguard procedures grade is instructed to be determined as third party damage the selection One damage safeguard procedures grade.Continue to repeat aforesaid operations, to obtain multiple damage safeguard procedures.It that is to say, user can be with Selection is directed to a damage safeguard procedures of third party damage in a variety of damage safeguard procedures shown from terminal, and this is damaged Safeguard procedures are determined as the damage safeguard procedures grade of third party damage, the damage protection that user can show from terminal afterwards The corresponding damage safeguard procedures grade of the damage safeguard procedures is selected in multiple damage safeguard procedures grades of measure, and will selection Damage safeguard procedures grade be determined as one of third party damage damage safeguard procedures grade.
For example by taking land marking as an example, the damage safeguard procedures grade of land marking can be：It is good, in, it is poor, work as terminal , will when the selected damage safeguard procedures of selection instruction received in multiple damage safeguard procedures based on display are land marking Land marking is determined as a damage safeguard procedures of third party damage, and then shows poor three damages of the good of land marking, neutralization Bad safeguard procedures grade, when good, neutralization poor three damage safeguard procedures grade of the terminal based on display receive selection instruction, The grade of selected land marking is instructed to be determined as a damage safeguard procedures grade the selection.When selected by the selection instruction When the terrain representation grade selected is middle, then it will be determined as damage measure protection of third party damage etc. in land marking Level.Wherein, refer to that three boards meet code requirement well, beacon information is clear, there is densely covered pile, and quantity meets visualization requirements. In refer to three boards missing, or be partially damaged, be blocked.Difference refers to three board serious loss, or damaged condition is tight Weight, beacon information are unintelligible.
Step 1013：In correspondence based on the types of damage between the types of damage of storage and damage leakage score value Obtain corresponding damage leakage score value.
Since the possibility that different types of damage cause Target pipe to leak is of different sizes, it is being determined After the types of damage of tripartite's damage, can be based on the types of damage, from the types of damage that prestores and damage leak score value it Between correspondence in search the types of damage it is corresponding damage leakage score value, and by the damage found leakage score value be determined as The corresponding damage leakage score value of the types of damage.Wherein, damage leakage score value refers to that types of damage causes Target pipe to be let out The possibility size of leakage.
Further, before the corresponding damage leakage score value of the definite types of damage, third party damage can be included A variety of types of damage and every kind of types of damage it is corresponding damage leakage score value correspond to stored.Such as can will be as above-mentioned 8 kinds of types of damage, and the corresponding damage leakage score value of 8 kinds of types of damage are prestored into such as table 1 below.
Table 1
Sequence number Types of damage Damage leakage score value
1 Earth's surface is excavated 0.58
2 Underground construction engineering 0.8
3 Dredging of digging sand is fetched earth 0.72
4 Roll 0.2
5 Drilling hole of oil stolen (gas) 0.9
6 Pipeline ground installation 0.50
7 Exploration probing 0.72
8 Other third party's construction activities 0.6
Step 1014：Pair occurred between score value from the damage plague grade of storage and is damaged based on the damage plague grade It should be related to that score value occurs for the corresponding damage of middle acquisition.
Since the damage plague grade of types of damage is different, which causes the possibility size that Target pipe fails Also it is different, therefore, before the third party damage failure probability of Target pipe is determined, the damage plague grade can be based on, is obtained The possibility size for taking the types of damage to occur, that is to say that score value occurs for the damage for obtaining the types of damage.Specifically, can be with base In the damage plague grade, occur to search the damage in the correspondence between score value from the damage plague grade of storage and damage Score value occurs for the corresponding damage of plague grade, and to be determined as the damage plague grade corresponding by the damage found generation score value Score value occurs for damage.Wherein, the possibility size that score value refers to types of damage generation occurs for damage.
Further, can be to the types of damage before obtaining the corresponding damage of the damage plague grade and score value occurs Multiple damage plague grades and it is multiple damage occur score value carry out corresponding to storage in advance.For example class can be damaged by above-mentioned 8 kinds Multiple damage plague grades of every kind of types of damage and multiple damage generation score values correspond to and stored into such as table 2 below in type.
Table 2
Sequence number Damage plague grade Score value occurs for damage
1 District occurred frequently 0.8
2 Yi Faqu 0.6
3 Accidental area 0.4
4 Off chance 0.2
Step 1015：Protected based on the plurality of damage safeguard procedures grade from the damage safeguard procedures grade of storage with damage Corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value is obtained in correspondence between measure score value respectively.
Due to the damage safeguard procedures grade of damage safeguard procedures taken Target pipe it is different when, damage protection is arranged Apply to avoiding the possibility size that Target pipe fails by third party damage also different, therefore, determining Target pipe Before third party damage failure probability, multiple damage safeguard procedures grades can be based on, obtain each damage safeguard procedures grade The possibility size for avoiding Target pipe from failing, that is to say, obtains the corresponding damage protection of each damage safeguard procedures grade and arranges Apply score value.Specifically, the plurality of damage safeguard procedures grade can be based on, it is anti-from damage safeguard procedures grade and the damage of storage The corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value of each damage safeguard procedures grade is searched in correspondence between shield measure score value, and will The multiple damage safeguard procedures score values found are determined as the corresponding damage safeguard procedures point of the plurality of damage safeguard procedures grade Value.
Further, can be with before the corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value of the plurality of damage safeguard procedures grade is obtained The damage safeguard procedures grade and damage safeguard procedures score value of every kind of damage safeguard procedures are carried out corresponding to storage in advance.On continuing Citing is stated, when the damage safeguard procedures of third party damage are land marking, safeguard procedures can be damaged by 3 of land marking Grade and corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value are corresponded to and stored into such as table 3 below.
Table 3
Sequence number Damage safeguard procedures grade Damage safeguard procedures score value
1 It is good 30%
2 In 15%
3 Difference 5%
It should be noted that when taking a variety of damage safeguard procedures based on third party damage, which arranges Apply can achieve the effect that be third party damage not to Target pipe produce failure effect, that is to say, this it is a variety of damage protection arrange It is 100% to apply the overall damage safeguard procedures total score produced to Target pipe, and therefore, a variety of damage safeguard procedures are to target Pipeline produce it is damage safeguard procedures score value and no more than 100%.
Step 1016：Score value is occurred based on damage leakage score value, the damage and the multiple damages acquired protection is arranged Apply the third party damage failure probability that score value determines Target pipe.
Specifically, sum to the multiple damage safeguard procedures score values acquired, by the plurality of damage safeguard procedures Damage safeguard procedures total score that is score value and being determined as third party damage, and then based on damage leakage score value, damage hair The damage safeguard procedures total score of value estranged and third party damage, can specify formula to determine Target pipe according to following first Third party damage failure probability：
First specifies formula：PThr=TThr×LThr×(1-MThr)
Wherein：PThrRefer to third party damage failure probability；TThrRefer to that score value occurs for the damage；LThrRefer to that the damage is let out Leak score value；MThrRefer to the damage safeguard procedures total score of the third party damage.
Continue the example above, when the types of damage of Target pipe third party damage is drilling hole of oil stolen (gas), drilling hole of oil stolen The damage leakage score value that (gas) causes Target pipe to leak is 0.9, and it is 0.6 that score value, which occurs, for the damage that drilling hole of oil stolen (gas) occurs, The damage safeguard procedures total score of third party damage is 75%, then specifies formula based on above-mentioned first, and third party damage failure is general Rate is PThr=0.6 × 0.9 × (1-75%), is 0.135.
When failing to Target pipe because of caused by third party damage, the possibility of third party damage generation is considered Property, third party damage is to causing the possibility that Target pipe leaks, and takes for third party damage the possibility of safeguard procedures Property, and the possibility that third party damage occurs is combined, third party damage and is directed to causing the possibility that Target pipe leaks Third party damage takes the possibility of safeguard procedures to determine the probability that third party damage causes Target pipe to fail, and improves the 3rd Side's damage causes the accuracy of Target pipe failure probability.
Step 102：Determine the corresponding disaster plague grade of Disasters Type, disaster leakage of geological disaster on Target pipe etc. Level and disaster prevention measure grade, and it is based on the disaster plague grade, the disaster leakage class and the disaster prevention measure grade Determine the geological disaster failure probability of Target pipe.
Specifically, since the influence factor of geological disaster failure probability can include the Disasters Type generation of geological disaster Possibility size, the Disasters Type cause the possibility size that Target pipe leaks and the damage protection taken based on geological disaster The possibility size of measure, and in the embodiment of the present invention, possibility size can be represented by the score value of setting, that is to say, It can determine that score value occurs for the corresponding disaster of the disaster plague grade, determine the corresponding disaster leakage score value of disaster leakage class, And definite disaster prevention measure grade corresponding disaster prevention measure score value, and then mesh is calculated based on definite each score value Mark the geological disaster failure probability of pipeline., next can be with 1021- steps 1025 as follows to target tube referring to Fig. 1 C The determination process of the geological disaster failure probability in road describes in detail.
Step 1021：Determine that the Disasters Type of geological disaster, and the corresponding disaster plague grade of Disasters Type, disaster are let out Leak grade and disaster prevention measure grade.
The Disasters Type of geological disaster
Due to geological disaster can be the damaged or destroyed by flood of stream road, mud-rock flow, gob collapse, slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood, raised fields damaged or destroyed by flood, collapse Collapse, come down, collapsible loess, frozen soil, any of a variety of Disasters Types such as other geological disasters, therefore, in definite geology During the Disasters Type of disaster, terminal can show a variety of Disasters Types, when a variety of Disasters Types of terminal based on display connect When receiving selection instruction, selected Disasters Type is instructed to be determined as the Disasters Type of geological disaster the selection.It that is to say, use Selection is directed to the Disasters Type of the geological disaster of Target pipe in a variety of Disasters Types that family can be shown from terminal, and by pre- If operating triggering selection instruction, when terminal receives the selection instruction, selected Disasters Type is instructed to determine the selection For the Disasters Type of geological disaster.
The corresponding disaster plague grade of the Disasters Type
After the Disasters Type of geological disaster is determined, terminal can show that multiple disasters of the Disasters Type occur Level, when terminal receives selection instruction based on the plurality of disaster plague grade, instructs selected disaster to occur the selection Grade is determined as the corresponding disaster plague grade of the Disasters Type.It that is to say, multiple disasters hair that user can show from terminal The corresponding disaster plague grade of the Disasters Type is selected in raw grade, and is instructed by predetermined registration operation triggering selection, when terminal connects When receiving selection instruction, selected disaster plague grade is instructed to be determined as corresponding disaster generation of Disasters Type etc. the selection Level.Wherein, the plurality of disaster plague grade is used for the grade for indicating that the Disasters Type causes Target pipe to fail.
For example when the Disasters Type that terminal determines is slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood, the disaster plague grade of slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood can include Four district occurred frequently, Yi Faqu, accidental area and off chance grades, at this time, terminal can show slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood district occurred frequently, easily Area, accidental area and off chance are sent out, when user selects district occurred frequently from district occurred frequently, Yi Faqu, accidental area and off chance When, that is to say, terminal receive selection instruction and the selection to instruct the disaster plague grade of selection be district occurred frequently, at this time, terminal District occurred frequently can be determined as to the disaster plague grade of slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood.Wherein, district occurred frequently refers to that the soil is porous, the slope surface gradient compared with Greatly, drop heavy rain every year on average to be more than 3 times, slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood activity is notable, there is coombe, local subsidence；Or Human dried bloodstains Heavy damage broken shape, geologic structure.Yi Faqu refers to that the soil is porous, and the slope surface gradient is larger, drops heavy rain every year on average 1~3 time. Accidental area refers to soil quality stabilizing, and fragmentary vegetative coverage, the slope surface gradient is larger, has rill to be formed, and slope surface soil is lost in.Off chance Refer to soil quality stabilizing, vegetative coverage is preferable, and the slope surface gradient is small, without obvious slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood sign.
The corresponding disaster leakage class of the Disasters Type
Due to the disaster leakage class of geological disaster it is different when, shadow that the geological disaster failure probability to Target pipe produces Also difference is rung, therefore, can development degree of danger, disaster based on geological disaster before definite geological disaster failure probability The factors such as the distance between scale, geological disaster place and pipeline determine corresponding disaster leakage of the Disasters Type of geological disaster etc. Level.For example the disaster leakage class of the Disasters Type of geological disaster can be that possible cause pipe leakage or fracture, may cause Pipe deforming, wall thickness reduction, destroy erosion resistant coating, dew pipe, hanging etc., buried depth of pipeline may be caused to be thinned, damage pipeline identification.
In the corresponding disaster leakage class of definite Disasters Type, terminal can show a variety of disaster leakage class, work as end The selection is instructed selected disaster leakage class to determine by end group when a variety of disaster leakage class receive selection instruction For the corresponding disaster leakage class of the Disasters Type.It that is to say, in a variety of disaster leakage class that user can show from terminal The corresponding disaster leakage class of the Disasters Type is selected, and the disaster leakage class is determined as the corresponding disaster of Disasters Type and is let out Leak grade.
The corresponding disaster prevention measure grade of the Disasters Type
Due to the disaster prevention measure grade of geological disaster it is different when, the geological disaster failure probability to Target pipe produces Influence it is also different, therefore, before definite geological disaster failure probability, can the treatment status based on geological disaster place, Monitoring data etc., carry out comprehensive analysis and determine the corresponding disaster prevention measure grade of the Disasters Type of geological disaster.Such as disaster The disaster prevention measure grade of type can be that hazards control engineering is intact, can effectively prevent disaster bodie and pipeline is broken It is bad；Hazards control engineering is partially damaged, but can play protective action；Without permanent works control measures, interim control is taken Measure processed；Hazards control engineering is badly damaged, it is impossible to plays effective protective action；There is no any geological hazard control work Journey.
In the corresponding disaster prevention measure grade of definite Disasters Type, terminal can show a variety of disaster prevention measures etc. Level, when terminal receives selection instruction based on a variety of disaster prevention measure grades, selected disaster is instructed by the selection Safeguard procedures grade is determined as the corresponding disaster prevention measure grade of the Disasters Type.It that is to say, user can show from terminal A variety of disaster prevention measure grades in select the corresponding disaster prevention measure grade of the Disasters Type, and the disaster prevention is arranged Apply grade and be determined as the corresponding disaster prevention measure grade of Disasters Type.
It should be noted that after the Disasters Type of geological disaster is determined, terminal can show the Disasters Type at the same time Corresponding a variety of disaster plague grades, a variety of disaster leakage class and a variety of disaster prevention measure grades, when terminal is based on a variety of When disaster plague grade, a variety of disaster leakage class and a variety of disaster prevention measure grades receive selection instruction, by the selection Selected disaster plague grade, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade is instructed to be determined as the Disasters Type corresponding Disaster plague grade, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade.It that is to say, a variety of calamities that user can show from terminal The corresponding disaster hair of the Disasters Type is selected in evil plague grade, a variety of disaster leakage class and a variety of disaster prevention measure grades Raw grade, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade, and instructed by predetermined registration operation triggering selection, when terminal receives During selection instruction, instruct selected disaster plague grade, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade true the selection It is set to the corresponding disaster plague grade of the Disasters Type, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade.
Step 1022：Pair between score value occurs from the disaster plague grade and disaster of storage based on the disaster plague grade It should be related to that score value occurs for the corresponding disaster of middle acquisition.
Due to the disaster plague grade of Disasters Type it is different when, the possibility which causes Target pipe to fail is big It is small also different, therefore, before the geological disaster failure probability of Target pipe is determined, the disaster plague grade can be based on, is obtained The possibility size for taking the Disasters Type to occur, that is to say that score value occurs for the disaster for obtaining the Disasters Type.Specifically, can be with base In the disaster plague grade, occur to search the disaster in the correspondence between score value from the disaster plague grade and disaster of storage Score value occurs for the corresponding disaster of plague grade, and it is corresponding that the disaster found generation score value is determined as the disaster plague grade Score value occurs for disaster.Wherein, the possibility size that score value refers to Disasters Type generation occurs for disaster.
Further, can be to the Disasters Type before obtaining the corresponding disaster of the disaster plague grade and score value occurs Multiple disaster plague grades and multiple disasters occur score value carry out corresponding to storage in advance.Such as can be by above-mentioned 10 kinds of disasters Multiple disaster plague grades of every kind of Disasters Type and multiple disasters generation score value correspond to and stored to such as table 4 below in type In.
Table 4
Sequence number Disaster plague grade Score value occurs for disaster
1 District occurred frequently 0.8
2 Yi Faqu 0.6
3 Accidental area 0.4
4 Off chance 0.2
Step 1023：Based on the disaster leakage class from pair between the disaster leakage class and disaster of storage leakage score value It should be related to the corresponding disaster leakage score value of middle acquisition.
When causing the disaster leakage class of Target pipe different due to Disasters Type, which causes Target pipe to lose The possibility size of effect is also different, therefore, after the disaster leakage class of geological disaster is determined, can be based on the disaster and leak Grade, the disaster leakage class is searched from the correspondence between disaster leakage class and disaster the leakage score value prestored Corresponding disaster leaks score value, and the disaster found leakage score value is determined as the corresponding disaster of the disaster leakage class and is leaked Score value.Wherein, disaster leakage score value refers to the possibility size that Disasters Type causes Target pipe to leak.
Further, can be by the Disasters Type before the corresponding disaster leakage score value of the definite disaster leakage class A variety of disaster leakage class and a variety of disasters leakage score value correspond to stored.Continue the example above, can will be such as above-mentioned institute The corresponding disaster leakage score value of 3 kinds of disaster leakage class and every kind of disaster leakage class stated is prestored into such as table 5 below.
Table 5
Step 1024：Based on disaster prevention measure grade of the disaster prevention measure grade from storage and disaster prevention measure Corresponding disaster prevention measure score value is obtained in correspondence between score value.
Due to the disaster prevention measure grade of disaster prevention measure taken for Disasters Type it is different when, the disaster prevention The possibility size that measure avoids Target pipe from failing is also different, therefore, is determining the geological disaster failure of Target pipe Before probability, disaster prevention measure grade can be based on, obtain the disaster prevention measure grade avoid Target pipe fail can Energy property size, that is to say, obtain the corresponding disaster prevention measure score value of disaster prevention measure grade.Specifically, can be based on The disaster prevention measure grade, from the correspondence between the disaster prevention measure grade of storage and disaster prevention measure score value The corresponding disaster prevention measure score value of disaster prevention measure grade is searched, and the disaster prevention measure score value found is determined For the corresponding disaster prevention measure score value of disaster prevention measure grade.
Further, can be to calamity before the corresponding disaster prevention measure score value of disaster prevention measure grade is obtained The disaster prevention measure grade and disaster prevention measure score value of evil safeguard procedures carry out corresponding to storage in advance.Continue the example above, Can be by 5 kinds of disaster prevention measure grades as described above and the corresponding disaster prevention measure of every kind of disaster prevention measure grade Score value is corresponded to and stored into such as table 6 below.
Table 6
Step 1025：Score value, disaster leakage score value and the disaster prevention measure score value are occurred based on the disaster and determine mesh Mark the geological disaster failure probability of pipeline.
Specifically, score value, the disaster leakage score value and disaster prevention measure score value are occurred based on the disaster, can be according to Following second specified formula determines the geological disaster failure probability of Target pipe：
Second specifies formula：PGeo=TGeo×LGeo×(1-MGeo)
Wherein：PGeoRefer to geological disaster failure probability；TGeoRefer to that score value occurs for the disaster；LGeoRefer to that the disaster leaks Score value；MGeoRefer to the disaster prevention measure score value.
Continue the example above, when the Disasters Type of Target pipe geological disaster is slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood, which is located at Accidental area, then it is 0.6 that score value, which occurs, for the disaster of slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood, and the disaster leakage score value that slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood causes Target pipe to leak is 0.3, the disaster prevention measure score value for the disaster prevention measure taken for slope surface damaged or destroyed by flood is 30%, then is specified based on above-mentioned second Formula, geological disaster failure probability are PGeo=0.6 × 0.3 × (1-30%), is 0.126.
When failing to Target pipe because of caused by geological disaster, the possibility of geological disaster generation, ground are considered Matter disaster causes the possibility that Target pipe leaks, and the possibility of safeguard procedures is taken for geological disaster, and in combination The possibility that matter disaster occurs, geological disaster is to causing the possibility that Target pipe leaks, and takes for geological disaster anti- The possibility of shield measure determines the probability that geological disaster causes Target pipe to fail, and improves geological disaster and causes Target pipe to lose Imitate the accuracy of probability.
Step 103：Determine that outer corrosion is corresponding extremely on the operating pressure and pipe thickness, and Target pipe of Target pipe Corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades outside one few, based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and At least one outer corrosion plague grade and the plurality of outer corrosion protection steps grade determine that the outer corrosion failure of Target pipe is general Rate.
Specifically, since the influence factor of outer corrosion failure probability can include the operating pressure and thickness of pipe wall of Target pipe Degree, and the outer corrosion plague grade corroded outside and the outer corrosion protection steps grade taken based on outer corrosion, and the present invention is real Apply in example, outer corrosion plague grade and outer corrosion protection steps grade can be represented by the score value of setting, that is to say, can With determine this it is at least one it is outer corrosion plague grade it is corresponding it is outer corrosion occur score value, determine the plurality of outer corrosion protection steps etc. The corresponding outer corrosion protection steps score value of level, and then operating pressure and pipe thickness based on Target pipe, and determine each A score value calculates the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe., next can be with 1031- steps as follows referring to Fig. 1 D The determination process of the outer corrosion failure probability of 1035 pairs of Target pipes describes in detail.
Step 1031：Determine the operating pressure and pipe thickness of Target pipe.
In the operational process of Target pipe, the operating pressure of Target pipe is different, and pipe thickness is different, causes in target When outer corrosion occurs for pipeline, it can all change to the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe, such as, when the operation of Target pipe Pressure is higher, and when pipe thickness is relatively thin, Target pipe is easy to that failure phenomenon occurs under the influence of outside corroding, and works as target tube The operating pressure in road is relatively low, when pipe thickness is thicker, it is difficult to which failure phenomenon occurs under the influence of Target pipe corrodes outside.Cause This, before the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe is determined, can first determine the operating pressure and pipe thickness of Target pipe.
Specifically, terminal, which can be shown, sets interface, which is used to obtain operating pressure and pipe thickness, works as end The set operating pressure of setting instruction and pipe thickness are determined as by end group when the setting interface receives setting instruction The operating pressure and pipe thickness of Target pipe.It that is to say, user can input Target pipe at the setting interface that terminal is shown Operating pressure and pipe thickness, and by predetermined registration operation trigger set instruction, when terminal receive the setting instruction when, by this The set operating pressure of instruction and pipe thickness is set to be determined as the operating pressure and pipe thickness of Target pipe.
Wherein, operating pressure refers to the current operating pressures of Target pipe, and pipe thickness refers to Target pipe the last time The pipe thickness determined during interior inspection.
Step 1032：Determine the outer corresponding at least one outer corrosion plague grade of corrosion and multiple outer corrosion on Target pipe Safeguard procedures grade.
At least one outer corrosion plague grade on Target pipe
In the operational process of Target pipe, Target pipe may be buried pipeline, or it is overhead pass through pipeline section, and work as When Target pipe is buried pipeline, Target pipe may be that soil resistivity and stray electrical current disturb by the influence factor of outer corrosion Deng；When Target pipe is aerial crossing pipeline section, Target pipe may be atmospheric corrosion etc. by the influence factor of outer corrosion.Soil Resistivity, stray electrical current interference and atmospheric corrosion etc. are different to the extent of corrosion of Target pipe, and cause that Target pipe fails can Energy property is also different, therefore, before the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe is determined, can first determine at least the one of Target pipe A outer corrosion plague grade.
Specifically, terminal can show multiple outer corrosion influence factors, when multiple outer corrosion impacts of the terminal based on display When factor receives selection instruction, a selected outer corrosion influence factors are instructed to be determined as the influence of outer corrosion the selection Factor, afterwards terminal can show multiple outer corrosion plague grades of the influence factor, when multiple outer corruption of the terminal based on display When erosion plague grade receives selection instruction, selected outer corrosion plague grade is instructed to be determined as the one of outer corrosion the selection A outer corrosion plague grade.Continue to repeat aforesaid operations, to obtain at least one outer corrosion plague grade.It that is to say, Yong Huke To select an outer corrosion influence factors of outer corrosion from multiple outer corrosion influence factors that terminal is shown, and by the outer corrosion Influence factor is determined as an outer corrosion influence factors of outer corrosion, the outer corrosion impact that user can show from terminal afterwards Select the corresponding outer corrosion plague grade of the outer corrosion influence factors in multiple outer corrosion plague grades of factor, and by selection Outer corrosion plague grade is determined as corrosion plague grade outside one of Target pipe.
For example when Target pipe is buried pipeline, at least one outer corrosion plague grade that terminal determines can include The outer corrosion plague grade that outer the corrosion plague grade and stray electrical current of soil resistivity influence；When Target pipe is aerial crossing During pipeline section, at least one outer corrosion plague grade that terminal determines can be the outer corrosion plague grade of atmospheric corrosion.
Wherein, the outer corrosion plague grade that stray electrical current influences can include it is strong, neutralize it is weak, wherein, when stray electrical current is During DC influence：Refer to pipe to soil potential forward migration value >=200mV (millivolt) by force；Or (millivolt is every by electric potential gradient of soil >=5mV/m Rice)；In refer to 20-200mV of pipe to soil potential forward migration value；Or 0.5-5mV/m of electric potential gradient of soil；It is weak to refer to pipe to soil potential Forward migration value ＜ 20mV；Or electric potential gradient of soil is less than 0.5mV/m.It is AC influence when stray electrical current exchanges influence type When, refer to AC current density >=100A/m by force2(every square metre of ampere)；In refer to AC current density 30-100A/m2；It is weak to be Refer to AC current density ＜ 30A/m2。
The outer corrosion plague grade of atmospheric corrosion can include highly corrosive, compared with highly corrosive, moderate corrosion and low corruption Corrosion.Wherein, highly corrosive refers to acid industrial atmosphere of the tube circumference atmospheric environment for moistening, near chemical plant.It is higher Corrosivity refers to industrial atmosphere or marine atmosphere of the tube circumference atmospheric environment for moistening, such as seashore pipeline.Moderate corrosion is Finger tube circumference atmospheric environment is urban atmosphere, humidity is larger, or dry industrial atmosphere.Low-corrosiveness refers to rural atmosphere ring Border, relatively dry atmospheric environment.
Multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades of outer corrosion
In the operational process of Target pipe, it will usually multiple outer corrosion protection steps are taken, such as, external anti-corrosion layer quality With cathodic protection potential etc..Since the outer corrosion protection steps grade of outer corrosion protection steps on Target pipe is different, mesh is avoided Pipeline is marked because the possibility of outer corrosion failure is also different, such as, when the external anti-corrosion layer quality of Target pipe is higher, Target pipe The possibility to fail by the influence of outer corrosion is smaller；When the external anti-corrosion layer quality of Target pipe is relatively low, Target pipe is because outer The influence of corrosion and the possibility that fails is larger.Therefore, in definite Target pipe outer corrosion failure probability caused by outer corrosion Before, the outer corrosion protection steps grade of multiple outer corrosion protection steps can be first determined.
Specifically, terminal can show multiple outer corrosion protection steps, when multiple outer corrosion protections of the terminal based on display When measure receives selection instruction, a selected outer corrosion protection steps are instructed to be determined as on Target pipe the selection outer Corrosion protection steps, afterwards terminal can show multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades of the outer corrosion protection steps, work as terminal When multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades based on display receive selection instruction, instruct selected outer corrosion anti-the selection Shield measure grade is determined as an outer corrosion protection steps grade.Continue to repeat aforesaid operations, to obtain multiple outer corrosion protections Measure grade.It that is to say, select an outer corrosion protection to arrange in multiple outer corrosion protection steps that user can show from terminal Apply, and the outer corrosion protection steps are determined as on Target pipe the corresponding outer corrosion protection steps of outer corrosion, user can afterwards To select the outer corrosion protection steps from the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades for the outer corrosion protection steps that terminal is shown Corresponding outer corrosion protection steps grade, and the outer corrosion protection steps grade of selection is determined as to one for Target pipe Outer corrosion protection steps grade.
For example user can select external anti-corrosion layer matter from the external anti-corrosion layer quality and cathodic protection potential that terminal is shown Amount, and multiple external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures grades of the external anti-corrosion layer quality shown based on terminal, select external anti-corrosion layer matter Measure corresponding external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures grade；Afterwards, user can be from the external anti-corrosion layer quality and cathode that terminal is shown Cathodic protection potential, and multiple cathodic protection potentials protection of the cathodic protection potential shown based on terminal are selected in protection potential Measure grade, selects the corresponding cathodic protection potential safeguard procedures grade of cathodic protection potential.And external anti-corrosion layer quality is protected Measure grade and cathodic protection potential safeguard procedures grade are determined as multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades of Target pipe.
Wherein, external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures grade can include, in, it is poor and very poor.Wherein, outer detection is referred to well Deficiency of protection coating is not found, and pipeline management finds erosion resistant coating problem with few in trenchless rehabilitation.In refer to that outer testing result is. Difference refers to pipeline section of the outer testing result for difference or pipeline generally existing repaired mouth Problem of Failure.It is very poor refer to outer testing result to be bad or The pipeline section of utilidor generally existing repaired mouth Problem of Failure.
Step 1033：Sent out based at least one outer corrosion plague grade from the outer corrosion plague grade of storage with outer corrosion Corresponding outer corrosion is obtained in correspondence between value estranged respectively score value occurs.
Due to the outer corrosion plague grade of outer corrosion it is different when, which causes the possibility that Target pipe fails Size is also different, therefore, before the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe is determined, can be based at least one outer corrosion and occur Grade, obtains the possibility size that each outer corrosion plague grade causes Target pipe to fail, that is to say, obtain each outer corrosion Score value occurs for the corresponding outer corrosion of plague grade.Specifically, each outer corrosion plague grade can be based on, from the outer corrosion of storage Plague grade and it is outer corrosion occur score value between correspondence in search this it is outer corrosion plague grade it is corresponding it is outer corrosion occur Score value, and by the outer corrosion found generation score value be determined as this it is outer corrosion plague grade it is corresponding it is outer corrosion occur score value.
Further, can be to each before obtaining the corresponding outer corrosion of each outer corrosion plague grade and score value occurs Multiple outer corrosion plague grades of outer corrosion influence factors and multiple outer corrosion occur score value and carry out corresponding to storage in advance.On continuing Citing is stated, can be by multiple outer corrosion generations of soil resistivity etc. for multiple outer corrosion influence factors as described above Level and multiple outer corrosion occur the advance correspondence of score value and store into such as table 7 below, the multiple outer corrosion that can influence stray electrical current Plague grade and multiple outer corrosion occur the advance correspondence of score value and store into such as table 8 below, can be by multiple outer corruption of atmospheric corrosion Score value occurs for erosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion, and correspondence is stored into such as table 9 below in advance.
Table 7
Table 8
Table 9
Step 1034：Based on outer corrosion protection steps grade of the plurality of outer corrosion protection steps grade from storage and outer corruption Corresponding outer corrosion protection steps score value is obtained respectively in correspondence between erosion safeguard procedures score value.
Since the outer corrosion protection steps grade for the outer corrosion protection steps taken for the outer corrosion of Target pipe is different When, the possibility size which avoids Target pipe from failing is also different, therefore, in definite Target pipe Outer corrosion failure probability before, can be based on multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades, obtain each outer corrosion protection steps etc. Level avoids the possibility size that Target pipe fails, and that is to say, obtains the corresponding outer corrosion of each outer corrosion protection steps grade Safeguard procedures score value.Specifically, each outer corrosion protection steps grade can be based on, from the outer corrosion protection steps grade of storage The corresponding outer corrosion protection of the outer corrosion protection steps grade is searched in correspondence between outer corrosion protection steps score value Measure score value, and the outer corrosion protection steps score value found is determined as the corresponding outer corrosion of the outer corrosion protection steps grade Safeguard procedures score value.
Further, can before the corresponding outer corrosion protection steps score value of each outer corrosion protection steps grade is obtained It is pre- advanced with multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades to each outer corrosion protection steps and multiple outer corrosion protection steps score values The corresponding storage of row.Continue the example above, can be by external anti-corrosion layer quality for multiple outer corrosion protection steps as described above Multiple external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures grades and multiple external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures score values correspond to store to such as following table , can be by multiple cathodic protection potential safeguard procedures grades of cathodic protection potential and cathodic protection potential safeguard procedures point in 10 Value correspondence is stored into such as table 11 below.
Table 10
Table 11
Step 1035：Based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, acquire it is at least one it is outer corrosion occur score value and Multiple outer corrosion protection steps score values determine the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe.
Score value occurs at least one outer corrosion acquired, can occur from least one outer corrosion in score value Selection occurs a maximum outer corrosion as Target pipe of score value and score value occurs；Prevent for the multiple outer corrosion acquired Shield measure score value, the plurality of outer corrosion protection steps score value can be summed, be determined as the outer corrosion protection of Target pipe Measure total score.
For example when Target pipe is buried pipeline, it can be soil resistivity which, which occurs score value, The outer corrosion outer corrosion that score value and stray electrical current occurs influences occur score value, and then occur point from the outer corrosion of soil resistivity The outer corrosion that value and stray electrical current influence occurs in score value, and a larger outer corruption for being determined as Target pipe of score value occurs for selection Score value occurs for erosion；When Target pipe is aerial crossing pipeline section, it can be atmospheric corrosion which, which occurs score value, Outer corrosion occur score value, then by atmospheric corrosion corrosion occur score value be determined as Target pipe outer corrosion occur score value.When The multiple outer corrosion protection steps score values acquired include external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures score value and cathodic protection potential is prevented , can will be external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures score value and cathodic protection potential safeguard procedures score value and definite during shield measure score value For the total score of the outer corrosion protection steps of Target pipe.
Further, score value and Target pipe occur for the outer corrosion based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, Target pipe The total scores of outer corrosion protection steps specify formula to determine the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe according to the following 3rd：
3rd specifies formula：
Wherein：PEcRefer to outer corrosion failure probability；CEcRefer to that score value occurs for the outer corrosion of at least Target pipe；MEcIt is Refer to the total score of the outer corrosion protection steps of the Target pipe；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
For example when Target pipe is aerial crossing pipeline section, the outer corrosion plague grade of Target pipe is atmospheric corrosion Outer corrosion plague grade, the outer corrosion plague grade of atmospheric corrosion is higher, and score value occurs for the outer corrosion of corresponding atmospheric corrosion For 0.6, then it is 0.6 that score value, which occurs, for the outer corrosion of Target pipe.Since Target pipe is without cathodic protection, that is to say, cathodic protection Current potential safeguard procedures score value is 0%, and the external anti-corrosion layer quality safeguard procedures score value of Target pipe is 50%, then Target pipe is outer The total score of corrosion protection steps is 50%.The current operating pressures of Target pipe are 8Mpa, pipe thickness 10mm, then target The outer corrosion failure probability of pipeline is
As 0.213.
When failing to Target pipe because of caused by outer corrosion, the possibility that outer corrosion occurs, outer corrosion are considered The possibility of Target pipe leakage is caused, and the possibility of safeguard procedures is taken for outer corrosion, and combines outer corrosion and occurs Possibility, outer corrosion takes the possibilities of safeguard procedures to causing the possibility that Target pipe leaks, and for outer corrode Determine the probability that outer corrosion causes Target pipe to fail, improve the outer accuracy corroded and cause Target pipe failure probability.
Step 104：Determine the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures on Target pipe Grade, and based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and the internal corrosion plague grade and the plurality of internal corrosion safeguard procedures Grade determines the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe.
Specifically, since the influence factor of Target pipe internal corrosion failure probability can include the operating pressure of Target pipe And pipe thickness, and the internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and the internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade taken based on internal corrosion, and In the embodiment of the present invention, internal corrosion plague grade and internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade can be represented by the score value of setting, It that is to say, it may be determined that score value occurs for the corresponding internal corrosion of internal corrosion plague grade, determines the plurality of internal corrosion safeguard procedures etc. The corresponding internal corrosion safeguard procedures score value of level, and then operating pressure and pipe thickness based on Target pipe, and determine each A score value calculates the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe., next can be with 1041- steps as follows referring to Fig. 1 E The determination process of the internal corrosion failure probability of 1044 pairs of Target pipes describes in detail.
Step 1041：Determine the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures on Target pipe Grade.
Internal corrosion plague grade on Target pipe
In the operational process of Target pipe, the influence factor that internal corrosion occurs for Target pipe is Target pipe pumped (conveying) medium Corrosivity intensity, when the corrosivity intensity of pumped (conveying) medium is higher, possibility that Target pipe fails by internal corrosion Larger, when the corrosivity intensity of pumped (conveying) medium is relatively low, the possibility that Target pipe fails by internal corrosion is smaller, namely It is that the internal corrosion that the corrosivity intensity of pumped (conveying) medium can influence Target pipe is small probability.Therefore, Target pipe is being determined Before internal corrosion failure probability, the internal corrosion plague grade of Target pipe can be first determined.
Specifically, terminal can show multiple internal corrosion plague grades, when multiple internal corrosions of the terminal based on display occur When grade receives selection instruction, selected internal corrosion plague grade is instructed to be determined as internal corrosion on Target pipe the selection Corresponding internal corrosion plague grade.It that is to say, it is rotten in selection in multiple internal corrosion plague grades that user can show from terminal Corresponding internal corrosion plague grade is lost, and triggering selection instructs, and when terminal receives the selection instruction, the selection is instructed institute The internal corrosion plague grade of selection is determined as the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion on Target pipe.
Wherein, internal corrosion plague grade can be to have corrosivity, low corruption under highly corrosive, middle corrosivity, particular case Five kinds of situations of corrosion and non-corrosiveness.Wherein, highly corrosive refers to that the average corrosion rate of pumped (conveying) medium is more than 0.25mm/a (millis Rice is annual), or spot corrosion speed is more than 0.38mm/a.Middle corrosivity refer to the average corrosion rate of pumped (conveying) medium 0.13mm/a~ Between 0.25mm/a, or spot corrosion speed is between 0.21mm/a~0.38mm/a.Under particular case there is corrosivity to refer to product There is no corrosivity, but where it is possible to introduce corrosive component, cause average corrosion rate 0.025mm/a~0.12mm/a it Between, or spot corrosion speed is between 0.13mm/a~0.20mm/a.Low-corrosiveness refers to that the average corrosion rate of pumped (conveying) medium exists Between 0.01~0.024mm/a, or spot corrosion speed is between 0.05~0.12mm/a.Non-corrosiveness refers to being averaged for pumped (conveying) medium Corrosion rate is less than 0.01mm/a, or spot corrosion speed less than 0.05mm/a.
Multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades of internal corrosion
In the operational process of Target pipe, it will usually multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures are taken, such as, at pumped (conveying) medium Reason, tube wall undercoating, internal corrosion monitoring, pigging and corrosion inhibiter etc..Due to the internal corrosion of internal corrosion safeguard procedures on Target pipe Safeguard procedures grade is different, avoids the possibility that Target pipe fails by internal corrosion also different, such as, when the tube wall of Target pipe When undercoating is thicker, the possibility that Target pipe fails by the influence of internal corrosion is smaller；When the tube wall undercoating of Target pipe When relatively thin, the possibility that Target pipe fails by the influence of internal corrosion is larger.Therefore, in definite Target pipe because internal corrosion is drawn Before the internal corrosion failure probability risen, the internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade of multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures can be first determined.
Specifically, terminal can show multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures, when multiple internal corrosions protection of the terminal based on display When measure receives selection instruction, a selected internal corrosion safeguard procedures are instructed to be determined as on Target pipe the selection interior Corrosion protection steps, afterwards terminal can show multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades of the internal corrosion safeguard procedures, work as terminal When multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades based on display receive selection instruction, selected internal corrosion is instructed to prevent the selection Shield measure grade is determined as an internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade.Continue to repeat aforesaid operations, protected with obtaining multiple internal corrosions Measure grade.It that is to say, select an internal corrosion protection to arrange in multiple outer anti-corrosion safeguard procedures that user can show from terminal Apply, and the internal corrosion safeguard procedures are determined as the corresponding internal corrosion safeguard procedures of internal corrosion on Target pipe, user can afterwards To select the internal corrosion safeguard procedures from the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades for the internal corrosion safeguard procedures that terminal is shown Corresponding internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade, and the internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade of selection is determined as to one for Target pipe Internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade.
Wherein, for internal corrosion safeguard procedures, pumped (conveying) medium processing refers to by handling the defeated product of pipe, such as de- The measures such as sulphur, dehydration；Pigging refers to by application wiper the impurity in pipeline except effective protective conduit of deenergizing prevents interior corruption The generation of erosion；Corrosion inhibiter, which is set in pumped (conveying) medium, injects corrosion inhibiter, suppresses internal corrosion；Internal corrosion monitoring refers to take phase The corrosion detecting method answered, such as corrosion coupon, continuous monitoring.
It should be noted that when taking multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures to prevent that Target pipe from failing because of internal corrosion, should Multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures can achieve the effect that, and failure phenomenon does not occur for Target pipe because of internal corrosion, that is to say, should Multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures can achieve the effect that as 1, therefore, between multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades and be not more than 1。
Step 1042：Based on the internal corrosion plague grade from the internal corrosion plague grade of storage and internal corrosion occur score value it Between correspondence in obtain corresponding internal corrosion respectively score value occur.
Due to the internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion it is different when, which causes the possibility that Target pipe fails Size is also different, therefore, before the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe is determined, can be based on internal corrosion plague grade, obtain The possibility size for taking the internal corrosion plague grade to cause Target pipe to fail, that is to say, obtain the internal corrosion plague grade pair Score value occurs for the internal corrosion answered.Specifically, the internal corrosion plague grade can be based on, from the internal corrosion plague grade of storage with it is interior Corrosion occurs to search the corresponding internal corrosion generation score value of the internal corrosion plague grade in the correspondence between score value, and will search To internal corrosion score value occur be determined as the corresponding internal corrosion of the internal corrosion plague grade score value occurs.
Further, can be to multiple interior before obtaining the corresponding internal corrosion of the internal corrosion plague grade and score value occurs Corrosion plague grade and multiple internal corrosions occur score value and carry out corresponding to storage in advance.For example the pumped (conveying) medium of Target pipe is more A internal corrosion plague grade and the corresponding internal corrosion generation score value of each internal corrosion plague grade can be corresponded to and stored to such as following table In 12.
Table 12
Sequence number Internal corrosion plague grade Score value occurs for internal corrosion
1 Highly corrosive 0.8
2 Middle corrosivity 0.6
3 There is corrosivity under particular case 0.4
4 Low-corrosiveness 0.2
5 Non-corrosiveness 0.01
Step 1043：Based on internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade of the plurality of internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade from storage and interior corruption Corresponding protection score value is obtained respectively in correspondence between erosion safeguard procedures score value.
Since the internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade for the internal corrosion safeguard procedures taken for the internal corrosion of Target pipe is different When, the possibility size which avoids Target pipe from failing is also different, therefore, in definite Target pipe Internal corrosion failure probability before, multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades can be based on, obtain each internal corrosion safeguard procedures etc. Level avoids the possibility size that Target pipe fails, and that is to say, obtains the corresponding internal corrosion of each internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade Safeguard procedures score value.Specifically, each internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade can be based on, from the internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade of storage The internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade corresponding internal corrosion protection is searched in correspondence between internal corrosion safeguard procedures score value Measure score value, and the internal corrosion safeguard procedures score value found is determined as the corresponding internal corrosion of internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade Safeguard procedures score value.
Further, can before the corresponding internal corrosion safeguard procedures score value of each internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade is obtained It is pre- advanced with multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades to each internal corrosion safeguard procedures and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures score values The corresponding storage of row.Continue the example above, for multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures described above, pumped (conveying) medium is handled, in tube wall Coating, internal corrosion monitoring, pigging and corrosion inhibiter, can be by each internal corrosion safeguard procedures in the plurality of internal corrosion safeguard procedures Multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures score values correspond to store into such as table 13 below.
Table 13
Step 1044：Based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, the internal corrosion generation score value acquired and multiple interior corruption Erosion safeguard procedures score value determines the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe.
For the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures score values acquired, can by the plurality of internal corrosion safeguard procedures score value into Row summation, is determined as the internal corrosion safeguard procedures total score of Target pipe.
Such as when the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures score values acquired include pumped (conveying) medium processing safeguard procedures score value, Inner coating protection measure score value, internal corrosion monitoring protection measure score value, pigging safeguard procedures score value and corrosion inhibiter safeguard procedures point During value, pumped (conveying) medium can be handled to safeguard procedures score value, inner coating protection measure score value, internal corrosion monitoring protection measure point Value, pigging safeguard procedures score value and corrosion inhibiter safeguard procedures score value and the internal corrosion safeguard procedures that are determined as Target pipe it is total Score value.
Further, score value and Target pipe occur for the internal corrosion based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, Target pipe The total scores of internal corrosion safeguard procedures specify formula to determine the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe according to the following 4th：
4th specifies formula：
Wherein：PIcRefer to internal corrosion failure probability；CIcRefer to that score value occurs for the internal corrosion of Target pipe；MIcRefer to target The total score of the internal corrosion safeguard procedures of pipeline；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
Such as when Target pipe internal corrosion occur score value be 0.8, the total score of the internal corrosion safeguard procedures of Target pipe For 80%, 8 megapascal of current operating pressures position of Target pipe, pipe thickness is 10 millimeters, then the outer corrosion failure of Target pipe Probability is
As 0.12.
When failing to Target pipe because of caused by internal corrosion, the possibility of internal corrosion generation, internal corrosion are considered The possibility of Target pipe leakage is caused, and the possibility of safeguard procedures is taken for internal corrosion, and combines internal corrosion Possibility, internal corrosion is to causing the possibility that Target pipe leaks, and takes for internal corrosion the possibility of safeguard procedures Determine the probability that internal corrosion causes Target pipe to fail, improve the accuracy that internal corrosion causes Target pipe failure probability.
Step 105：Based on third party damage failure probability, geological disaster failure probability, outer corrosion failure probability and interior corruption Failure probability is lost, the failure probability of Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing.
It is general based on third party damage failure probability, geological disaster failure probability, outer corrosion failure probability and internal corrosion failure Rate, the failure probability of Target pipe is determined according to the following 5th specified formula：
5th specifies formula：F=1- (1-PThr)×(1-PGeo)×(1-PEc)×(1-PIc)
Wherein：F refers to the failure probability of Target pipe, PThrRefer to third party damage failure probability, PGeoRefer to geology calamity Evil failure probability, PEcRefer to outer corrosion failure probability, PIcRefer to internal corrosion failure probability.
Continue the example above, when Target pipe third party damage failure probability be 0.135, the geological disaster of Target pipe Failure probability is 0.126, and the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe is 0.213, and the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe is 0.12, then the failure probability of Target pipe is F=1- (1-0.135) × (1-0.126) × (1-0.213) × (1-0.12), i.e., For 0.476.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the corresponding damage plague grade of the types of damage based on third party damage, the types of damage The third party damage failure probability of Target pipe is determined with multiple damage safeguard procedures grades；Disasters Type based on geological disaster Corresponding disaster plague grade, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade determine that the geological disaster failure of Target pipe is general Rate；Operating pressure and pipe thickness based on Target pipe, and corrode outside it is corresponding it is at least one it is outer corrosion plague grade and Multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades determine the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe；Operating pressure and pipe based on Target pipe Wall thickness, and the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades determine the interior of Target pipe Corrosion failure probability.And then based on third party damage failure probability, geological disaster failure probability, outer corrosion failure probability and interior Corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing, in order in certain one kind harm It when factor is smaller to the failure effect of Target pipe, can be showed, avoided pair by the size order of the failure probability The omission of such hazard factor or situation about not being inconsistent with actual hazard factor occur, and improve what Target pipe risk class determined Accuracy.
Fig. 2A is a kind of structure diagram of the determining device of pipeline failure probability provided in an embodiment of the present invention.Referring to figure 2A, the device include：
First determining module 201, the corresponding damage of types of damage for determining third party damage on Target pipe occur Grade and multiple damage safeguard procedures grades, and based on types of damage, damage plague grade and multiple damage safeguard procedures grades Determine the third party damage failure probability of Target pipe；
Second determining module 202, the corresponding disaster generation of Disasters Type for determining geological disaster on Target pipe etc. Level, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade, and arranged based on disaster plague grade, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention Apply the geological disaster failure probability that grade determines Target pipe；
3rd determining module 203, it is outer on the operating pressure and pipe thickness, and Target pipe for determining Target pipe Corrode corresponding at least one outer corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades, based on operating pressure and thickness of pipe wall Degree, and at least one outer corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades determine the outer corrosion failure of Target pipe Probability；
4th determining module 204, for determining on Target pipe the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple interior Corrosion protection steps grade, and operating pressure and pipe thickness are based on, and internal corrosion plague grade and multiple internal corrosions protection Measure grade determines the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe；
5th determining module 205, for being lost based on third party damage failure probability, geological disaster failure probability, outer corrosion Probability and internal corrosion failure probability are imitated, the failure probability of Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing.
Alternatively, include referring to Fig. 2 B, the first determining module 201：
First acquisition unit 2011, for from the types of damage of storage and being damaged based on types of damage between leakage score value Corresponding damage leakage score value is obtained in correspondence；
Second acquisition unit 2012, for occurring to divide with damage from the damage plague grade of storage based on damage plague grade Corresponding damage is obtained in correspondence between value score value occurs；
3rd acquiring unit 2013, for based on multiple damage damage safeguard procedures grades of the safeguard procedures grade from storage Corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value is obtained in correspondence between damage safeguard procedures score value respectively；
First determination unit 2014, for score value and the multiple damages acquired to occur based on damage leakage score value, damage Bad safeguard procedures score value determines the third party damage failure probability of Target pipe according to the following first specified formula：
First specifies formula：PThr=TThr×LThr×(1-MThr)
Wherein：PThrRefer to third party damage failure probability；TThrRefer to that score value occurs for damage；LThrRefer to damage leakage point Value；MThrRefer to the sum of multiple damage safeguard procedures score values.
Alternatively, referring to Fig. 2 C, the second determining module 202, including：
4th acquiring unit 2021, for occurring to divide with disaster from the disaster plague grade of storage based on disaster plague grade Corresponding disaster is obtained in correspondence between value score value occurs；
5th acquiring unit 2022, for based on disaster leakage class of the disaster leakage class from storage and disaster leakage point Corresponding disaster leakage score value is obtained in correspondence between value；
6th acquiring unit 2023, for the disaster prevention measure grade and calamity based on disaster prevention measure grade from storage Corresponding disaster prevention measure score value is obtained in correspondence between evil safeguard procedures score value；
Second determination unit 2024, for score value, disaster leakage score value and disaster prevention measure score value to occur based on disaster The geological disaster failure probability of Target pipe is determined according to the following second specified formula：
Second specifies formula：PGeo=TGeo×LGeo×(1-MGeo)
Wherein：PGeoRefer to geological disaster failure probability；TGeoRefer to that score value occurs for disaster；LGeoRefer to that disaster leaks score value； MGeoRefer to disaster prevention measure score value.
Alternatively, the 3rd determining module is mainly used for：
Based at least one outer corrosion plague grade between score value occurs for the outer corrosion plague grade of storage and outer corrosion Correspondence in obtain respectively it is corresponding it is outer corrosion occur score value；
Based on outer corrosion protection steps grade of multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades from storage and outer corrosion protection steps Corresponding outer corrosion protection steps score value is obtained in correspondence between score value respectively；
Based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, at least one outer corrosion generation score value acquired and multiple outer corruption Erosion safeguard procedures score value determines the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe according to the following 3rd specified formula：
3rd specifies formula：
Wherein：PEcRefer to outer corrosion failure probability；CEcRefer to that the maximum score value in score value occurs at least one outer corrosion； MEcRefer to the sum of multiple outer corrosion protection steps score values；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
Alternatively, the 4th determining module is mainly used for：
Based on internal corrosion plague grade from the internal corrosion plague grade of storage and internal corrosion score value occurs between corresponding close Corresponding internal corrosion is obtained in system respectively score value occurs；
Internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade and internal corrosion safeguard procedures based on multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades from storage Corresponding protection score value is obtained in correspondence between score value respectively；
Arranged based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, the internal corrosion generation score value acquired and multiple internal corrosions protection Score value is applied according to the following 4th internal corrosion failure probability for specifying formula to determine Target pipe：
4th specifies formula：
Wherein：PIcRefer to internal corrosion failure probability；CIcRefer to that score value occurs for internal corrosion；MIcRefer to multiple internal corrosion protection The sum of measure score value；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
Alternatively, the 5th determining module is mainly used for：
It is general based on third party damage failure probability, geological disaster failure probability, outer corrosion failure probability and internal corrosion failure Rate, the failure probability of Target pipe is determined according to the following 5th specified formula：
5th specifies formula：F=1- (1-PThr)×(1-PGeo)×(1-PEc)×(1-PIc)
Wherein：F refers to the failure probability of Target pipe, PThrRefer to third party damage failure probability, PGeoRefer to geology calamity Evil failure probability, PEcRefer to outer corrosion failure probability, PIcRefer to internal corrosion failure probability.
The beneficial effect that technical solution provided in an embodiment of the present invention is brought is：Types of damage based on third party damage, The corresponding damage plague grade of the types of damage and multiple damage safeguard procedures grades determine that the third party damage of Target pipe loses Imitate probability；The corresponding disaster plague grade of Disasters Type, disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure based on geological disaster etc. The geological disaster failure probability of the definite Target pipe of level；Operating pressure and pipe thickness based on Target pipe, and outer corrosion Corresponding at least one outer corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades determine the outer corrosion failure of Target pipe Probability；Operating pressure and pipe thickness based on Target pipe, and the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple interior Corrosion protection steps grade determines the internal corrosion failure probability of Target pipe.And then based on third party damage failure probability, geology Disaster failure probability, outer corrosion failure probability and internal corrosion failure probability, the target tube is determined by Boolean algebra or computing The failure probability in road, in order to which when certain one kind hazard factor is smaller to the failure effect of Target pipe, the failure can be passed through The size order of probability shows, and avoids the omission to such hazard factor or situation about not being inconsistent with actual hazard factor from It is existing, improve the accuracy that Target pipe risk class determines.
It should be noted that：The determining device for the pipeline failure probability that above-described embodiment provides is general in the failure for determining pipeline , can be as needed and by above-mentioned function only with the division progress of above-mentioned each function module for example, in practical application during rate Distribution is completed by different function modules, i.e., the internal structure of equipment is divided into different function modules, to complete to retouch above The all or part of function of stating.In addition, the determining device and pipeline failure of the pipeline failure probability that above-described embodiment provides are general The definite embodiment of the method for rate belongs to same design, its specific implementation process refers to embodiment of the method, and which is not described herein again.
One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that hardware can be passed through by realizing all or part of step of above-described embodiment To complete, relevant hardware can also be instructed to complete by program, the program can be stored in a kind of computer-readable In storage medium, storage medium mentioned above can be read-only storage, disk or CD etc..
The foregoing is merely presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, it is all the present invention spirit and Within principle, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on, should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

  1. A kind of 1. pipeline failure method of determining probability, it is characterised in that the described method includes：
    Determine the corresponding damage plague grade of types of damage of third party damage on Target pipe and multiple damage safeguard procedures etc. Level, and the target is determined based on the types of damage, the damage plague grade and the multiple damage safeguard procedures grade The third party damage failure probability of pipeline；
    Determine the corresponding disaster plague grade of Disasters Type, disaster leakage class and the disaster of geological disaster on the Target pipe Safeguard procedures grade, and it is true based on the disaster plague grade, the disaster leakage class and the disaster prevention measure grade The geological disaster failure probability of the fixed Target pipe；
    Determine the operating pressure and pipe thickness of the Target pipe, and outer corrosion corresponding at least one on the Target pipe A outer corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades, based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and At least one outer corrosion plague grade and the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade determine the outer corruption of the Target pipe Lose failure probability；
    Determine the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grades on the Target pipe, and base In the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and the internal corrosion plague grade and the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures etc. Level determines the internal corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe；
    Based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and described Internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing.
  2. 2. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described based on the types of damage, the damage plague grade The third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe is determined with the multiple damage safeguard procedures grade, including：
    Obtained in correspondence based on the types of damage between the types of damage of storage and damage leakage score value corresponding Damage leakage score value；
    Occur to obtain in the correspondence between score value from the damage plague grade of storage and damage based on the damage plague grade Take corresponding damage that score value occurs；
    Based on the multiple damage safeguard procedures grade from the damage safeguard procedures grade of storage and damage safeguard procedures score value it Between correspondence in obtain respectively it is corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value；
    Based on the damage leakage score value, the damage occur score value and multiple damage safeguard procedures score values for acquiring according to Following first specified formula determines the third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe：
    First specifies formula：PThr=TThr×LThr×(1-MThr)
    Wherein：PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability；TThrRefer to that score value occurs for the damage；LThrRefer to the damage Bad leakage score value；MThrRefer to the sum of the multiple damage safeguard procedures score value.
  3. 3. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described to be leaked based on the disaster plague grade, the disaster Grade and the disaster prevention measure grade determine the geological disaster failure probability of the Target pipe, including：
    Occur to obtain in the correspondence between score value from the disaster plague grade and disaster of storage based on the disaster plague grade Take corresponding disaster that score value occurs；
    Obtained based on the disaster leakage class from the correspondence between disaster leakage class and disaster the leakage score value of storage Take corresponding disaster leakage score value；
    Based on the disaster prevention measure grade between the disaster prevention measure grade of storage and disaster prevention measure score value Corresponding disaster prevention measure score value is obtained in correspondence；
    Score value, disaster leakage score value and the disaster prevention measure score value occurs based on the disaster according to following second to refer to Determine the geological disaster failure probability that formula determines the Target pipe：
    Second specifies formula：PGeo=TGeo×LGeo×(1-MGeo)
    Wherein：PGeoRefer to the geological disaster failure probability；TGeoRefer to that score value occurs for the disaster；LGeoRefer to the disaster Leak score value；MGeoRefer to the disaster prevention measure score value.
  4. 4. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that it is described to be based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, with And at least one outer corrosion plague grade and the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade determine the outer of the Target pipe Corrosion failure probability, including：
    Based at least one outer corrosion plague grade between score value occurs for the outer corrosion plague grade of storage and outer corrosion Correspondence in obtain respectively it is corresponding it is outer corrosion occur score value；
    Based on outer corrosion protection steps grade of the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade from storage and outer corrosion protection steps Corresponding outer corrosion protection steps score value is obtained in correspondence between score value respectively；
    Based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, at least one outer corrosion generation score value acquired and multiple outer corruption Erosion safeguard procedures score value determines the outer corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following 3rd specified formula：
    3rd specifies formula：
    Wherein：PEcRefer to the outer corrosion failure probability；CEcRefer to that the maximum point in score value occurs at least one outer corrosion Value；MEcRefer to the sum of the multiple outer corrosion protection steps score value；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
  5. 5. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that it is described to be based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, with And the internal corrosion plague grade and the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade determine the internal corrosion failure of the Target pipe Probability, including：
    Based on the internal corrosion plague grade from the internal corrosion plague grade of storage and internal corrosion score value occurs between corresponding close Corresponding internal corrosion is obtained in system respectively score value occurs；
    Internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade and internal corrosion safeguard procedures based on the multiple internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade from storage Corresponding protection score value is obtained in correspondence between score value respectively；
    Arranged based on the operating pressure, the pipe thickness, the internal corrosion generation score value acquired and multiple internal corrosions protection Score value is applied according to the following 4th internal corrosion failure probability for specifying formula to determine the Target pipe：
    4th specifies formula：
    Wherein：PIcRefer to the internal corrosion failure probability；CIcRefer to that score value occurs for the internal corrosion；MIcRefer in the multiple The sum of corrosion protection steps score value；P refers to the operating pressure；W refers to the pipe thickness.
  6. 6. the method as described in claim 1-5 is any, it is characterised in that it is described based on the third party damage failure probability, The geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and the internal corrosion failure probability, pass through Boolean algebra or fortune The failure probability for determining the Target pipe is calculated, including：
    Based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and described Internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined according to the following 5th specified formula：
    5th specifies formula：F=1- (1-PThr)(1-PGeo)(1-PEc)(1-PIc)
    Wherein：F refers to the failure probability of the Target pipe, PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability, PGeoRefer to institute State geological disaster failure probability, PEcRefer to the outer corrosion failure probability, PIcRefer to the internal corrosion failure probability.
  7. 7. a kind of determining device of pipeline failure probability, it is characterised in that described device includes：
    First determining module, the corresponding damage plague grade of types of damage for determining third party damage on Target pipe and more A damage safeguard procedures grade, and based on the types of damage, the damage plague grade and the multiple damage safeguard procedures Grade determines the third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe；
    Second determining module, the corresponding disaster plague grade of Disasters Type for determining geological disaster on the Target pipe, Disaster leakage class and disaster prevention measure grade, and based on the disaster plague grade, the disaster leakage class and described Disaster prevention measure grade determines the geological disaster failure probability of the Target pipe；
    3rd determining module, for determining the operating pressure and pipe thickness of the Target pipe, and on the Target pipe The corresponding at least one outer corrosion plague grade and multiple outer corrosion protection steps grades of outer corrosion, based on the operating pressure and The pipe thickness, and at least one outer corrosion plague grade and the multiple outer corrosion protection steps grade determine institute State the outer corrosion failure probability of Target pipe；
    4th determining module, for determining the corresponding internal corrosion plague grade of internal corrosion and multiple internal corrosions on the Target pipe Safeguard procedures grade, and be based on the operating pressure and the pipe thickness, and the internal corrosion plague grade and described more A internal corrosion safeguard procedures grade determines the internal corrosion failure probability of the Target pipe；
    5th determining module, for based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corruption Failure probability and the internal corrosion failure probability are lost, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined by Boolean algebra or computing.
  8. 8. device as claimed in claim 7, it is characterised in that first determining module includes：
    First acquisition unit, for the correspondence based on the types of damage between the types of damage of storage and damage leakage score value Corresponding damage leakage score value is obtained in relation；
    Second acquisition unit, for based on the damage plague grade from the damage plague grade of storage and damage occur score value it Between correspondence in obtain it is corresponding damage occur score value；
    3rd acquiring unit, for the damage safeguard procedures grade and damage based on the multiple damage safeguard procedures grade from storage Corresponding damage safeguard procedures score value is obtained in correspondence between bad safeguard procedures score value respectively；
    First determination unit, for score value and the multiple damages acquired to occur based on the damage leakage score value, the damage Bad safeguard procedures score value determines the third party damage failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following first specified formula：
    First specifies formula：PThr=TThr×LThr×(1-MThr)
    Wherein：PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability；TThrRefer to that score value occurs for the damage；LThrRefer to the damage Bad leakage score value；MThrRefer to the sum of the multiple damage safeguard procedures score value.
  9. 9. device as claimed in claim 7, it is characterised in that second determining module includes：
    4th acquiring unit, for based on the disaster plague grade from the disaster plague grade of storage and disaster occur score value it Between correspondence in obtain corresponding disaster score value occur；
    5th acquiring unit, for based on the disaster leakage class from the disaster leakage class of storage and disaster leakage score value it Between correspondence in obtain corresponding disaster leakage score value；
    6th acquiring unit, for being prevented based on the disaster prevention measure grade from the disaster prevention measure grade of storage with disaster Corresponding disaster prevention measure score value is obtained in correspondence between shield measure score value；
    Second determination unit, for score value, disaster leakage score value and the disaster prevention measure to occur based on the disaster Score value determines the geological disaster failure probability of the Target pipe according to the following second specified formula：
    Second specifies formula：PGeo=TGeo×LGeo×(1-MGeo)
    Wherein：PGeoRefer to the geological disaster failure probability；TGeoRefer to that score value occurs for the disaster；LGeoRefer to the disaster Leak score value；MGeoRefer to the disaster prevention measure score value.
  10. 10. device as claimed in claim 7, it is characterised in that the 5th determining module is mainly used for：
    Based on the third party damage failure probability, the geological disaster failure probability, the outer corrosion failure probability and described Internal corrosion failure probability, the failure probability of the Target pipe is determined according to the following 5th specified formula：
    5th specifies formula：F=1- (1-PThr)(1-PGeo)(1-PEc)(1-PIc)
    Wherein：F refers to the failure probability of the Target pipe, PThrRefer to the third party damage failure probability, PGeoRefer to institute State geological disaster failure probability, PEcRefer to the outer corrosion failure probability, PIcRefer to the internal corrosion failure probability.
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CN112183913A (en) * 2019-07-05 2021-01-05 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Quantitative risk evaluation method and device for pipeline of oil transportation station
CN112183913B (en) * 2019-07-05 2024-06-07 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Quantitative risk evaluation method and device for oil transportation station pipeline
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CN112862318A (en) * 2021-02-07 2021-05-28 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 Oilfield pipeline corrosion risk calculation method, system, equipment and readable storage medium
CN113704674A (en) * 2021-08-20 2021-11-26 广东省水利水电第三工程局有限公司 Pipeline anticorrosion method and anticorrosion material
CN117078003A (en) * 2023-07-20 2023-11-17 山东特检科技有限公司 Risk assessment method for corrosion of static equipment
CN117078003B (en) * 2023-07-20 2024-02-27 山东特检科技有限公司 Risk assessment method for corrosion of static equipment

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