CN107895204A - A kind of resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of meter and cloud cover - Google Patents
A kind of resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of meter and cloud cover Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides the resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of a kind of meter and cloud cover, fail to take into full account the low problem of photovoltaic power generation quantity precision of prediction caused by cloud cover factor for the prediction of existing resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term, take into full account the dynamic characteristic of cloud cover photovoltaic panel, calculated using the cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detection of image motion vector and its cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate area change amount, reach resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction optimization effect.Overcome conventional method and do not consider the larger problem of precision of prediction deviation caused by cloud cover factor, improve photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction optimization precision.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to regenerative resource photovoltaic power generation quantity electric powder prediction, more particularly to a kind of meter and cloud cover face
Long-pending resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method.
Background technology
Regenerative resource photovoltaic generation is green clean energy resource fast-developing in renewable energy power generation technology.But light
The characteristics of volt is generated electricity with fluctuation, intermittence and the randomness influenceed by weather, especially cloud cover factor is sent out photovoltaic
The influence of electricity.
In existing resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term predicting strategy, usual predicted time at intervals of minute level,
More consideration daylight factors, fail to consider the problem of photovoltaic power generation quantity precision of prediction caused by cloud cover factor is low.Therefore originally
Invention is calculated by the correction model of meter and the photovoltaic generation area of cloud cover, obtains the optimal of resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity
Short term estimated, realize the effect for improving resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity precision of prediction.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide the resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term of a kind of meter and cloud cover area is pre-
Survey method, this method comprise the following steps.
S1. resident's roof photovoltaic power generation plate associated technical parameters and cloud cover image information are obtained.
Obtain tri- technical parameters of length L, width W, area S of resident roof photovoltaic power generation plate；Obtain photovoltaic installing frame
Frame and length pL, the width pW technical parameters of photovoltaic generation sheet separation.If it is current be No.k generatings time-count cycles be T, wherein T takes
Value is less than 20s, and camera constant duration in T time-count cycle that generates electricity carries out m width image continuous acquisitions, and wherein m's takes
It is worth for 2 ~ 5, puts image pickup head by being divided into photovoltaic installation frame and photovoltaic generation sheet separation, obtain continuous m width and look up bat
The image information taken the photograph, detected for follow-up cloud cover.
S2. photovoltaic generation datum quantity in resident roof calculates.
Using the first n cycle that generates electricity including the cycle that generated electricity containing current No.k as photovoltaic generation datum quantity measurement period, wherein n
Value be 5 ~ 10.If the actual photovoltaic power generation quantity in the first n cycle that generates electricity in each cycle is Bi (i=1 ..., n), photovoltaic hair
Electricity stability bandwidth threshold value is r, and wherein r value is 0 ~ 1, and resident roof photovoltaic generation datum quantity is B, then according to formula B=r*
(B1+B2+ ...+Bn)/n calculates photovoltaic generation datum quantity.
S3. the cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detection based on image motion vector.
The motion vector of objects in images includes movement velocity and the direction of object, therefore can be base according to cloud inlet point
Accurate image motion vector judges the direction of motion and speed of cloud atlas picture.Generated electricity time-count cycle in current No.k, if cloud cover
The motion angle threshold value of photovoltaic power generation plate is alphaL and alphaH, and wherein alphaL values are 0 degree ~ 15 degree, alphaH values
For 165 degree ~ 180 degree；Movement rate threshold value is beta, and wherein beta values are 0 ~ 0.1 m/s.First in the continuous m width of acquisition
In image, if the serial number j and j+1 of continuous two images, wherein j=1 ..., m, calculate image j and image j+1 medium clouds pair successively
As motion vector Vk (k=1 ..., m-1), Vk average motion vector V=(V1+ V 2+ ...+Vk)/(m-1) is taken to be used as cloud layer
The judgement parameter of photovoltaic power generation plate is blocked, calculates average motion vector V and photovoltaic installation frame baseline angle C and movement rate
Q, is more than alphaL and C and is less than if alphaH and movement rate Q are more than beta and judge that cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate is sent out if angle C
It is raw, otherwise judge that cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate does not occur.
S4. cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate area change amount calculates.
If the cloud movement angle parameter for calculating cloud cover photovoltaic generation plate suqare is D and cloud movement rate parameter E,
Generated electricity time-count cycle in current No.k, when cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate occurs, setting D is equal to Q equal to C and E, otherwise D and E
It is equal to 0.The angle parameter D and speed parameter E moved using cloud, generating time-count cycle are T, with reference to the length of photovoltaic power generation plate
L and width W parameter, it is approximately ellipse by cloud shape, calculating estimates subsequent time No.k+1 generating cycle cloud cover light
Lie prostrate power generation plate area change amount deltaS.
S5. next generating cycle photovoltaic power generation quantity prediction.
The photovoltaic power generation quantity for setting a generating cycle No.k+1 is Y, uses photovoltaic generation datum quantity as B, cloud cover face
Product variable quantity deltaS, photovoltaic generation plate suqare S, next generating cycle is predicted according to formula Y=B* (S-deltaS)/S
No.k+1 photovoltaic power generation quantity.
Described photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method is directed to resident's roof photovoltaic power generation system.
Compared with general technology, the resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of present invention meter and cloud cover,
Fail to take into full account photovoltaic power generation quantity caused by cloud cover factor for the prediction of existing resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term
The low problem of precision of prediction, the dynamic characteristic of cloud cover photovoltaic panel is taken into full account, using the cloud cover light of image motion vector
Lie prostrate power generation plate detection and its cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate area change amount calculates, reach resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term
Prediction optimization effect.Overcome conventional method and do not consider the larger problem of precision of prediction deviation caused by cloud cover factor, improve
Photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction optimization precision.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the inventive method overall flow figure.
Fig. 2 is the parameter acquiring schematic diagram of cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detection.
Fig. 3 is the configuration scheme of installation of cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detection.
Fig. 4 is the cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detects schematic diagram based on image motion vector.
Fig. 5 is that cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate area change amount calculates schematic diagram.
Embodiment
It is as shown in Figure 1 flow chart of the method for the present invention, the method for the present invention is entered to advance below in conjunction with specific embodiment
One step explanation：
The resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of meter and cloud cover area provided by the invention, is directed to occupy
People's roof photovoltaic power generation system, comprises the following steps：
S1. resident's roof photovoltaic power generation plate associated technical parameters and cloud cover image information are obtained.
Obtain tri- technical parameters of length L, width W, area S of resident roof photovoltaic power generation plate；Obtain photovoltaic installing frame
Frame and length pL, the width pW technical parameters of photovoltaic generation sheet separation.If it is current be No.k generatings time-count cycles be T, wherein T takes
Value is less than 20s, and camera constant duration in T time-count cycle that generates electricity carries out m width image continuous acquisitions, and wherein m's takes
It is worth for 2 ~ 5, puts image pickup head by being divided into photovoltaic installation frame and photovoltaic generation sheet separation, obtain continuous m width and look up bat
The image information taken the photograph, detected for follow-up cloud cover.
Such as Fig. 2 in example, before the implementation of this prediction mode, length L, the width of resident roof photovoltaic power generation plate are obtained first
W, and calculate to obtain its area S；Photovoltaic installation frame and length pL, the width pW of photovoltaic generation sheet separation, and calculate to obtain its area
pS.The time-count cycle that generated electricity in example is T=10s, configuration installation such as Fig. 3 of cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detection, in photovoltaic generation
The center lower section of plate, is provided with image pickup head, and collection image pickup head constant duration in T time-count cycle that generates electricity enters
Row looks up the width upward view picture of m in visual angle=2.
S2. photovoltaic generation datum quantity in resident roof calculates.
Using the first n cycle that generates electricity including the cycle that generated electricity containing current No.k as photovoltaic generation datum quantity measurement period, wherein n
Value be 5 ~ 10.If the actual photovoltaic power generation quantity in the first n cycle that generates electricity in each cycle is Bi (i=1 ..., n), photovoltaic hair
Electricity stability bandwidth threshold value is r, and wherein r value is 0 ~ 1, and resident roof photovoltaic generation datum quantity is B, then according to formula B=r*
(B1+B2+ ...+Bn)/n calculates photovoltaic generation datum quantity.
S3. the cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detection based on image motion vector.
The motion vector of objects in images includes movement velocity and the direction of object, therefore can be base according to cloud inlet point
Accurate image motion vector judges the direction of motion and speed of cloud atlas picture.Generated electricity time-count cycle in current No.k, if cloud cover
The motion angle threshold value of photovoltaic power generation plate is alphaL and alphaH, and wherein alphaL values are 0 degree ~ 15 degree, alphaH values
For 165 degree ~ 180 degree；Movement rate threshold value is beta, and wherein beta values are 0 ~ 0.1 m/s.First in the continuous m width of acquisition
In image, if the serial number j and j+1 of continuous two images, wherein j=1 ..., m, calculate image j and image j+1 medium clouds pair successively
As motion vector Vk (k=1 ..., m-1), Vk average motion vector V=(V1+ V 2+ ...+Vk)/(m-1) is taken to be used as cloud layer
The judgement parameter of photovoltaic power generation plate is blocked, calculates cloud average motion vector V and photovoltaic installation frame baseline angle C and motion speed
Rate Q, is more than alphaL and C and is less than if alphaH and movement rate Q are more than beta and judge cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate if angle C
Occur, otherwise judge that cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate does not occur.
Such as Fig. 4 in example, the motion angle threshold value of cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate is that alphaL is 15 degree and alphaL is
165 degree, movement rate threshold value is that beta is 0.01m/s, in the width image of continuous m=2 of acquisition, continuous two images sequence number point
Not Wei j=1 and j+1=2, can calculate cloud object motion vector Vk (k=1) by above two images；The motion vector of cloud layer
Vk, now average motion vector V=Vk；Calculate average motion vector V and photovoltaic installation frame baseline angle C and movement rate
Q, if angle C is more than alpha=15 degree and C when being more than beta=0.01m/s less than alphaH=165 degree and movement rate Q, sentence
Disconnected cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate occurs, and otherwise judges that cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate does not occur.
S4. cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate area change amount calculates.
If the cloud movement angle parameter for calculating cloud cover photovoltaic generation plate suqare is D and cloud movement rate parameter E,
Generated electricity time-count cycle in current No.k, when cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate occurs, setting D is equal to Q equal to C and E, otherwise D and E
It is equal to 0.The angle parameter D and speed parameter E moved using cloud, generating time-count cycle are T, with reference to the length of photovoltaic power generation plate
L and width W parameter, it is approximately ellipse by cloud shape, calculating estimates subsequent time No.k+1 generating cycle cloud cover light
Lie prostrate power generation plate area change amount deltaS.
No.k+1 generates electricity cycle cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate area change amount deltaS examples such as Fig. 5.
S5. next generating cycle photovoltaic power generation quantity prediction.
The photovoltaic power generation quantity for setting a generating cycle No.k+1 is Y, uses photovoltaic generation datum quantity as B, cloud cover face
Product variable quantity deltaS, photovoltaic generation plate suqare S, next generating cycle is predicted according to formula Y=B* (S-deltaS)/S
No.k+1 photovoltaic power generation quantity.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention be not limited thereto,
Any one skilled in the art the invention discloses technical scope in, the change or replacement that can readily occur in,
It should all be included within the scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be with scope of the claims
It is defined.
Claims (4)
1. the resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of a kind of meter and cloud cover, comprises the following steps：
S1. resident's roof photovoltaic power generation plate associated technical parameters and cloud cover image information are obtained；
S2. photovoltaic generation datum quantity in resident roof calculates；
S3. the cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate detection based on image motion vector；
S4. cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate area change amount calculates；
S5. next generating cycle photovoltaic power generation quantity prediction.
2. the resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of meter according to claim 1 and cloud cover, it is special
Sign is, in the step S1, to be currently that No.k generates electricity time-count cycle as T, wherein T values are less than 20s, and camera is at one
Constant duration carries out m width image continuous acquisitions in generating T time-count cycle, and wherein m value is 2 ~ 5.
3. the resident roof photovoltaic power generation quantity ultra-short term prediction method of meter according to claim 1 and cloud cover, it is special
Sign is, in the step S3, is generated electricity time-count cycle in current No.k, if the motion angle threshold value of cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate
For alphaL and alphaH, wherein alphaL values are 0 degree ~ 15 degree, and alphaH values are 165 degree ~ 180 degree；Movement rate threshold
It is worth for beta, wherein beta values are 0 ~ 0.1 m/s.
4. first in the continuous m width image of acquisition, if the serial number j and j+1 of continuous two images, wherein j=1 ..., m, according to
Secondary calculating image j and image j+1 medium cloud object motion vector Vk (k=1 ..., m-1), take Vk average motion vector V=(V1+
V 2+ ...+Vk)/judgement the parameter of (m-1) as cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate, calculate average motion vector V and installed with photovoltaic
The angle C and movement rate Q of framework baseline, if angle C is more than, alphaL and C is less than alphaH and movement rate Q is more than beta
Then judge that cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate occurs, otherwise judge that cloud cover photovoltaic power generation plate does not occur.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110766198A (en) * | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-07 | 中国电建集团青海省电力设计院有限公司 | Photovoltaic power station arrangement method based on photovoltaic power station floor area quantitative calculation |
| CN111245016A (en) * | 2020-03-05 | 2020-06-05 | 宁夏宝龙新能源科技有限公司 | New energy photovoltaic power generation self-steady state output adjusting method and device |
| CN112653393A (en) * | 2020-12-09 | 2021-04-13 | 阳光电源股份有限公司 | Control method and device for photovoltaic system IV diagnosis |
-
2017
- 2017-11-07 CN CN201711083535.XA patent/CN107895204A/en not_active Withdrawn
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 张林威: "面向分布式光伏发电超短期功率预测的云团动态特征建模", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库工程科技Ⅱ辑》 * |
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110766198A (en) * | 2019-09-18 | 2020-02-07 | 中国电建集团青海省电力设计院有限公司 | Photovoltaic power station arrangement method based on photovoltaic power station floor area quantitative calculation |
| CN111245016A (en) * | 2020-03-05 | 2020-06-05 | 宁夏宝龙新能源科技有限公司 | New energy photovoltaic power generation self-steady state output adjusting method and device |
| CN112653393A (en) * | 2020-12-09 | 2021-04-13 | 阳光电源股份有限公司 | Control method and device for photovoltaic system IV diagnosis |
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