CN107844906A - A kind of construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of meter and external economy factor - Google Patents
A kind of construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of meter and external economy factor Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of meter and the construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of external economy factor, comprise the following steps：1) power consumption under external environment condition and all kinds of economic datas are compiled and is screened；2) seasonal adjustment is carried out to each data sequence after screening and is standardized；3) principal component analysis is carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, builds preliminary market consumer confidence index；4) stationary test or co integration test are carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, and carries out Granger Causality Tests；5) coefficient of each economic indicator in market economy index is modified based on Granger Causality Tests result, forms final electrity market consumer confidence index.The present invention is based on principal component analysis and Co-integration Theory, proposes a kind of synthesis construction method of electrity market consumer confidence index, has important reference significance to the influence degree of power consumption and the developing state of whole electrity market for accurately holding each economic factor.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electricity consumption silhouette to ring evaluation field, the electrity market boom of particularly a kind of meter and external economy factor
The construction method of index.
Background technology
Economic Cycles Analysis research is widely used in economic field, but be not already with electrical domain it is very ripe.Electric power is national warp
Help the antecedent basis developed, and the development speed of all trades and professions electricity consumption is directly related with the development level of national economy, ensures electric power
Stable sufficient supply has highly important meaning for economic development and people's normal life, excavate external environment condition economy because
The electricity consumption rule of development under the influence of element, it will help instruct Operation of Electric Systems to plan, comply with cyclic swing, to Utilities Electric Co. etc.
Related functional department selects corresponding strategy to provide solid foundation.
It is difficult to hold with simple and single method in the influence in face of dynamic, uncertain, complicated external environment condition
The complicated changing rule of electricity needs, thus need to consider many-sided electricity needs influence factor, excavate industry in itself
Fluctuation tendency, company should hold the variation tendency of external environment condition, study the inner link of power demand under different factors, correct
The development trend and rule of electrity market are held in ground, each side factor under external environment condition just must be synthetically analyzed, because any
One single economic variable fluctuation is all unable to view and goes out the past of overall electrity market, current and following body posture
Gesture.
The content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is that existing appraisal procedure is simply and single, it is difficult to hold answering for electricity needs
Miscellaneous changing rule, thus provide a kind of construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of meter and external economy factor.
To solve above-mentioned technical proposal, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is：A kind of electricity consumption of meter and external economy factor
The construction method of brisk market index, this method comprise the following steps：
1) power consumption under external environment condition and all kinds of economic datas are compiled and is screened；
2) seasonal adjustment is carried out to each data sequence after screening and is standardized；
3) principal component analysis is carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, builds preliminary market consumer confidence index；
4) stationary test or co integration test are carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, and carries out Granger Causality Tests；
5) coefficient of each economic indicator in market economy index is modified based on Granger Causality Tests result, structure
Into final electrity market consumer confidence index.
Further, in step 1), under the external environment condition screen after economic data include scale above industrial added value,
Total import and export value, investment in fixed assets, general public finance budgetary receipts.
Further, in step 2), the seasonal adjustment method uses X12 methods, and standardized method uses min-max standards
Change method.
Further, in step 3), principal component analysis is carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, the preliminary market of structure is prosperous
Index is：
Y=A1X1+A2X2+A3X3+A4X4
Wherein, y is brisk market index, x1、x2、x3And x4Scale above industrial added value, total import and export value are represented respectively, are consolidated
Determine four assets investment, general public finance budgetary receipts indexs, A1、A2、A3And A4For the weights of each index.
Further, the stationary test in the step 4) uses ADF methods of inspection, and co integration test is examined using Johansen
Method.
Further, in step 5), definition correction factor is λi=1-Pi, wherein PiFor in Granger Causality Tests
Abandon true probability.Finally electrity market consumer confidence index is：
Y=λ1A1X1+λ2A2X2+λ3A3X3+λ4A4X4
Beneficial effect
(1) it is comprehensive.The external environmental factor of electrity market considered it is abundant, from being visited between different aspect, different indexs
Seek electricity consumption influence factor；
(2) specific aim.Each index weight value of electrity market consumer confidence index that there is now typically only determines by single method,
Such as PCA, composite index number method, but such index lacks the specific aim to power consumption, and the present invention is on original basis
It is upper that each independent variable weights are modified using Granger causalities result, obtain more electricity consumption targetedly electrity market
The variation tendency of consumer confidence index, more closing to reality power consumption.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the inventive method.
Embodiment
Technical solution of the present invention is described in further detail with specific embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, so that ability
The technical staff in domain can be better understood from the present invention and can be practiced, but illustrated embodiment is not as the limit to the present invention
It is fixed.
The construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of a kind of meter of the present invention and external economy factor, this method includes following
Step：
(1) power consumption under external environment condition and all kinds of economic datas are compiled and is screened, after being screened under external environment condition
Economic data includes scale above industrial added value, total import and export value, investment in fixed assets, general public finance budgetary receipts.
(2) seasonal adjustment is carried out to each data sequence after screening and is standardized；
Its seasonal adjustment method uses X12 methods, and standardized method uses min-max standardized methods.
(3) principal component analysis is carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, structure preliminary market consumer confidence index is：
Y=A1X1+A2X2+A3X3+A4X4
Wherein, y is brisk market index, x1、x2、x3And x4Scale above industrial added value, total import and export value are represented respectively, are consolidated
Determine four assets investment, general public finance budgetary receipts indexs, A1、A2、A3And A4For the weights of each index.
(4) stationary test or co integration test are carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, then carries out Granger causes and effects pass
System examines；
Wherein, stationary test uses ADF methods of inspection, and co integration test uses Johansen methods of inspection.
(5) coefficient of each economic indicator in market economy index is repaiied based on Granger Causality Tests result
Just, correction factor is defined as λi=1-Pi, wherein PiTo abandon true probability in Granger Causality Tests.Final electrity market
Consumer confidence index is：
Y=λ1A1X1+λ2A2X2+λ3A3X3+λ4A4X4。
It is specifically introduced below：
Two cities are respectively selected as research object, its 2016-2017 first half of the year 6 of finishing collecting using China coastal state three regions
Electricity consumption, scale above industrial added value, total import and export value, investment in fixed assets, the general public finance budget in individual city
The monthly data of income, data source is in the Statistics Bureau of Shanxi Province.
Seasonal adjustment is carried out using X12 methods to the data compiled, data are then carried out using min-max Standardization Acts
Standardization.
After carrying out principal component analysis to power consumption and each economic indicator again, the weights for obtaining different each indexs of districts and cities are as follows：
The whole relation of association for a long time of each city's power consumption and each economic indicator is established, and carries out Granger Causality Tests, is obtained
The explanation degree λ changed to the change of each economic indicator to power consumptioni, it is as a result as follows：
| Districts and cities | V | I | J | G |
| A | 0.6276 | 0.8811 | 0.8556 | 0.4805 |
| B | 0.6287 | 0.9031 | 0.8618 | 0.4239 |
| C | 0.7787 | 0.9159 | 0.7884 | 0.324 |
| D | 0.7727 | 0.4017 | 0.9131 | 0.618 |
| E | 0.6724 | 0.9474 | 0.9559 | 0.6487 |
| F | 0.4546 | 0.2026 | 0.8332 | 0.181 |
The coefficient of each economic indicator in market economy index is modified based on Granger Causality Tests result,
Final electrity market consumer confidence index is formed, the index result of calculation of the first half of the year in 2017 is as follows：
| Districts and cities | 2017-1 | 2017-2 | 2017-3 | 2017-4 | 2017-5 | 2017-6 | It is accumulative |
| A | 0.424 | 0.072 | 0.493 | 0.339 | 0.448 | 0.561 | 2.337 |
| B | 0.416 | 0.216 | 0.532 | 0.502 | 0.558 | 0.652 | 2.876 |
| C | 0.457 | 0.151 | 0.607 | 0.410 | 0.490 | 0.592 | 2.707 |
| D | 0.496 | 0.324 | 0.662 | 0.554 | 0.523 | 0.642 | 3.201 |
| E | 0.406 | 0.143 | 0.516 | 0.451 | 0.345 | 0.408 | 2.268 |
| F | 0.195 | 0.094 | 0.218 | 0.232 | 0.272 | 0.324 | 1.335 |
As a result show, 2017 first half of the year this save six big districts and cities add up electricity consumption prosperity degree be ordered as D>B>C>A>E>F, D city
Electrity market is the most prosperous；B, the city electrity markets of C two are comparatively prosperous, and boom value is all 2.8 or so；A, the electricity consumption cities of city of E two
Field development is comparatively low, and boom value is 2.3 or so；The development of F cities is the lowest.
The present invention is based on principal component analysis and Co-integration Theory, proposes a kind of comprehensive structure side of electrity market consumer confidence index
Method, have for each economic factor of accurate assurance to the influence degree of power consumption and the developing state of whole electrity market important
Reference significance.
It should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention,
Some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications also should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.In the present embodiment not
The available prior art of clear and definite each part is realized.
Claims (7)
- A kind of 1. construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of meter and external economy factor, it is characterised in that：This method includes Following steps：1) power consumption under external environment condition and all kinds of economic datas are compiled and is screened；2) seasonal adjustment is carried out to each data sequence after screening, rejects the influence of the cyclical swings such as weather conditions, production cycle, And the data sequence after seasonal adjustment is standardized；3) principal component analysis is carried out to power consumption and each economic indicator, builds preliminary market consumer confidence index；4) stationary test is carried out to each index, if all steady, carries out Granger Causality Tests；Otherwise carry out assisting whole Examine, it was demonstrated that exist between each variable and carry out Granger Causality Tests again after assisting whole relation for a long time；5) coefficient of each economic indicator in market economy index is modified based on Granger Causality Tests result, structure Into final electrity market consumer confidence index.
- 2. the construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of a kind of meter according to claim 1 and external economy factor, its It is characterised by：In step 1), include scale above industrial added value, disengaging after all kinds of economic data screenings under the external environment condition Mouth total value, investment in fixed assets, general public finance budgetary receipts.
- 3. the construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of a kind of meter according to claim 2 and external economy factor, its It is characterised by：In step 2), the seasonal adjustment method uses X12 methods, and standardized method uses min-max standardization sides Method.
- 4. the construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of a kind of meter according to claim 3 and external economy factor, its It is characterised by：In step 3), the brisk market exponential form is y=A1X1+A2X2+A3X3+A4X4, wherein, y is brisk market Index, x1、x2、x3And x4Scale above industrial added value, total import and export value, investment in fixed assets, general public goods are represented respectively Four indexs of political affairs budgetary receipts, A1、A2、A3And A4For the weights of each index.
- 5. the construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of a kind of meter according to claim 4 and external economy factor, its It is characterised by：In step 4), the Co-integration Theory analysis includes stationary test, the co integration test to time series, if examining All by then showing balanced relation steady in a long-term be present between electricity consumption and four big economic indicators, then can further be used Granger Causality Tests between electricity and four big economic indicators, the change for obtaining each economic indicator change to power consumption Explanation degree λi。
- 6. the construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of a kind of meter according to claim 5 and external economy factor, its It is characterised by：The stationary test uses ADF methods of inspection, and the co integration test uses Johansen methods of inspection.
- 7. a kind of construction method of the electrity market consumer confidence index of meter and external economy factor according to claim 5 or 6, It is characterized in that：In step 5), the coefficient amendment refers to is multiplied by it to power consumption by the weights of each independent variable of brisk market index The explanation degree λ of changei, definition correction factor is λi=1-Pi, wherein PiIt is very general for abandoning in Granger Causality Tests Rate, obtain electricity consumption consumer confidence index Y=λ1A1X1+λ2A2X2+λ3A3X3+λ4A4X4。
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109190986A (en) * | 2018-09-10 | 2019-01-11 | 张连祥 | Business environment analysis and evaluation system and method based on direct objective data |
| CN109284437A (en) * | 2018-08-01 | 2019-01-29 | 广东奥博信息产业股份有限公司 | A kind of adaptive feedback adjustment methods of weight and device of information push |
| CN110231503A (en) * | 2019-07-08 | 2019-09-13 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Stealing user recognition positioning method of the area Gao Suntai based on Granger CaFpngerusality test |
| CN113379282A (en) * | 2021-06-24 | 2021-09-10 | 南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司 | Power-based economic business state analysis method, system and storage medium |
-
2017
- 2017-11-10 CN CN201711102914.9A patent/CN107844906A/en active Pending
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109284437A (en) * | 2018-08-01 | 2019-01-29 | 广东奥博信息产业股份有限公司 | A kind of adaptive feedback adjustment methods of weight and device of information push |
| CN109284437B (en) * | 2018-08-01 | 2020-12-08 | 广东奥博信息产业股份有限公司 | Weight adaptive feedback adjustment method and device for information push |
| CN109190986A (en) * | 2018-09-10 | 2019-01-11 | 张连祥 | Business environment analysis and evaluation system and method based on direct objective data |
| CN110231503A (en) * | 2019-07-08 | 2019-09-13 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Stealing user recognition positioning method of the area Gao Suntai based on Granger CaFpngerusality test |
| CN113379282A (en) * | 2021-06-24 | 2021-09-10 | 南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司 | Power-based economic business state analysis method, system and storage medium |
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Application publication date: 20180327 |