CN107769254B - A kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions and hierarchical control method - Google Patents
A kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions and hierarchical control method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions and hierarchical control methods, comprising: according to the topological structure in wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant, carries out super short-period wind power prediction based on spatial coherence and NWP data；Control process is spatially divided into cluster Optimized Operation layer, field group coordination classification layer and the automatic execution level of single game by the dispatch value issued according to control centre, and wind power prediction value is above successively refined from the time；Group on the scene coordinates classification layer, is classified based on wind power prediction value to wind power plant, is divided into climbing group, lower climbing group, steady group and oscillation group；In the automatic execution level of single game, section nargin is sent out based on spinning reserve nargin under AGC unit and wind-powered electricity generation and judges that wind-powered electricity generation can issue additional space, climb in additional issue group's output of wind electric field or the lower group's output of wind electric field of climbing of reduction；It is run based on wind power plant and calculates and feed back wind power error according to the wind power plant actual value monitored with the system of monitoring, corrected wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant predicted value, keep optimization process more accurate.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to operation and control of electric power system fields, more particularly to a kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions and layering
Control method.
Background technique
Wind-power electricity generation is currently that technology is most mature in renewable energy power generation technology, renewable energy of most Development volue
Source.However wind power output has fluctuation and uncertain, with the promotion of power grid apoplexy electro-osmosis rate level, it is traditional based on
The control of the electric power system dispatching of power supply controllability and load predictability will become very difficult, and the wind power integration of high permeability will
Detrimental effect is brought to the frequency of the whole network, voltage, spinning reserve capacity etc., wherein to the real power control in wind-powered electricity generation cluster
More stringent requirements are proposed for ability.
Wind-powered electricity generation cluster refers to that geographical location is identical or close, be in same wind-resources band, have identical wind characteristic and
The wind power plant set for accessing same grid entry point is concentrated, output of wind electric field variation correlation is strong in cluster, simultaneity factor is high, has uniqueness
Space-time it is complementary.To it is this geographically adjoin, wind-powered electricity generation cluster that is related and possessing a common access point carries out in characteristic
United Dispatching and coordinated control can effectively stabilize the fluctuation of single output of wind electric field, be formed in installation scale and external regulation
In characteristic all with power supply similar in conventional power plant, and the ability for making it have quick response dispatching of power netwoks and control.
Currently, domestic and foreign scholars focus mostly in single wind power plant level, for wind-powered electricity generation collection for the research of wind-powered electricity generation real power control
The research of the coordinated control of group is deep not enough.Real power control strategy in wind power plant relates generally to frequency response and automatic generation
Control sub-station design, and the allocation strategy of dispatch value mainly includes big by blower rated capacity and by blower maximum active power value
Small two kinds of principles are allocated.The above equal Shortcomings of subject and method, system call are primarily upon the total of station level
Power output, it is not high for the power output attention rate of unit, and the prediction accuracy of wind power is relied in real power control strategy
Property it is higher, and the characteristic of spatial distribution of wind-powered electricity generation cluster is unique, for the wind power prediction and real power control in wind-powered electricity generation cluster, with
Upper research does not consider the coordination of more times, space scale.Also, in wind-powered electricity generation cluster real power control, using wind-powered electricity generation cluster as
It is whole to consider and the coordinated control between Automatic Generation Control (Automatic Generation Control, AGC) unit
It is not deep enough.
Summary of the invention
In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions with point
Coating control method.Model Predictive Control (Model Predictive Control, MPC) is applied to wind-powered electricity generation cluster by this method
In real power control strategy, MPC includes prediction model, and three links of rolling optimization and feedback compensation, the present invention is in prediction model
The spatial coherence for considering wind power can make each in wind-powered electricity generation cluster compared with traditional wind power plant dispatching distribution strategy
The more accurate trace scheduling planned trajectory of wind power plant, layering weaken wind power fluctuation and prediction error step by step, make entire wind-powered electricity generation
The power output of cluster transmitting system is steady, while consideration and AGC unit real time coordination, sends out the constraint of section in wind-powered electricity generation cluster
It is lower to increase wind electricity digestion to greatest extent.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention comprehensively considers following factor:
1, local wind speed, wind direction, wind power data, in investigated wind power plant or wind-powered electricity generation region and the adjacent blower in local or
The wind speed of wind power plant, wind direction, wind power data.
2, the topological structure of wind power plant and wind-powered electricity generation cluster.
3, the dispatch value that wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching center issues.
To achieve the above objectives, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is that:
A kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions and hierarchical control method, comprising the following steps:
A. according to the topological structure in wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant, ultra-short term is carried out based on spatial coherence and NWP data
Wind power prediction obtains wind power prediction value；
B. it is handed down to the dispatch value of wind-powered electricity generation cluster according to wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching center, control process is spatially divided into three
A control layer: cluster Optimized Operation layer, field group coordinate the classification layer and automatic execution level of single game, by wind power prediction value from the time
Upper successively refinement is inhibited with operation plan tracking, wind power fluctuation in layer-by-layer thinning process and wind-powered electricity generation limit power output is minimum
Target is constraint with climbing limitation, amplitude limit link, and the scheduling of wind-powered electricity generation cluster is handed down at reasonable distribution wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching center
Value inhibits wind power fluctuation to promote operation plan tracking accuracy；
C. in cluster Optimized Operation layer, the wind power prediction value based on 15min resolution ratio, with 15min time scale
Rolling optimization is carried out to the active power output of each wind farm group；
D. group on the scene coordinates in classification layer, the wind power prediction value based on 5min resolution ratio, defining classification index K, root
Classify according to classification indicators K to wind power plant, wind power plant is divided into four class wind farm groups: above climb group, lower climbing group, steady group
With oscillation group, rolling optimization is then carried out with active power output of the 5min time scale to wind power plant in each wind farm group；
E. in the automatic execution level of single game, the wind power prediction value based on 1min resolution ratio, with 1min time scale pair
The active power output of each wind power plant carries out rolling optimization；It is abundant based on spinning reserve under AGC unit on the basis of rolling optimization result
Degree and wind-powered electricity generation send out section nargin and judge that wind-powered electricity generation can issue additional space, and when the two space abundance, then climbing group's wind power plant goes out in additional issue
Power；When one of both insufficient space, then lower group's output of wind electric field of climbing is reduced；
F. based on wind power plant run with the system of monitoring, according to the practical power generating value of the wind farm group or wind power plant monitored,
The wind power prediction error of wind farm group or wind power plant is calculated and feeds back, the wind power for correcting wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant is pre-
Measured value keeps optimization process more accurate.
On the basis of above scheme, in step A, super short-period wind power is carried out based on spatial coherence and NWP data
The detailed process of prediction are as follows:
A1. the space coordinate T of each wind power plant or each blower of wind power plant in wind-powered electricity generation cluster is seti(xi,yi,zi), each axial fan hub
Locate wind speed or wind power plant anemometer tower wind speedWind direction di(0 °~360 °, with due north for 0 ° and 360 °, clockwise
Direction), wind power Pi, the horizontal distance between two wind power plants is Δ lij；
The related coefficient between two wind power plants is calculated according to the historical data time series of wind speed, wind direction and wind power
Are as follows:
Wherein, xi、xjIt is in some same time period to two geographical location node TiAnd TjSame variable (the wind at place
Speed, wind direction, wind power) observation time sequence, N be observation number, xikFor node TiSight in k-th of observation
Time series is surveyed,For xikTime Series Mean, xjkFor node TjObservation time sequence in k-th of observation,For xjk
Time Series Mean；
Node TiAnd TjBetween statistical correlation coefficient be ultimately expressed as:
Wherein,For wind speed correlation,For wind direction correlation,For wind power correlation；
According to formula (2), statistical correlation matrix can be indicated are as follows:
Wherein, n is the number of wind power plant in the number or wind-powered electricity generation cluster of wind power plant inner blower,
A2. node TiAnd TjBetween atmosphere (wind) motion change process by Navier Stokes equation and continuity equation
Description:
Wherein,For the momentum change of wind,For barometric gradient,For in section
Ao Lili,For molecular friction power, fgFor gravity, ρ is atmospheric density, and p is atmospheric pressure,It is earth rotation speed, η
It is shear viscosity；
Node TiAnd TjBetween wind speed variable quantity are as follows:
Wherein, f1It is according to the calculated wind speed variable quantity of logarithm wind profile, f2It is according to Na Wei-Stokes side
Journey and the calculated wind speed variable quantity of continuity equation, f2It is calculated by formula (4) and formula (5), α and β are above two wind respectively
The weight of fast variable quantity；
According to formula (6), wind speed transformation matrices can be indicated are as follows:
A3. the wind speed of blower or wind-powered electricity generation field prediction local blower or wind power plant at adjacent node is utilized；
First according to statistical correlation coefficient calculate node TiWeight coefficient w between adjacent nodeij:
Wherein, wijFor node TiWith adjacent node TjBetween weight coefficient；
According to the wind power of each adjacent node and wind speed, corresponding weight coefficient and statistical correlation coefficient and related gas
Image information predicts local wind speed and wind power, and is generalized to other each node TiWind speed and wind power prediction:
Wherein,For wind power prediction value,For wind speed value, σiAnd σjRespectively node TiAnd TjPlace except wind speed,
Relevant weather information (such as temperature, humidity, atmospheric density, air pressure) except wind power, εiIt is error term, λ and μ are amendments
Coefficient；Function GiAnd HiRespectively correspond the prediction model of wind speed and wind power.
On the basis of above scheme, in step B, three control layers are based on, with operation plan in layer-by-layer thinning process
Minimum target that tracking, wind power fluctuation inhibit and wind-powered electricity generation limit is contributed, objectives function are as follows:
Wherein,For the wind farm group of t moment or the practical power generating value of wind power plant,The scheduling meter issued for system
Value is drawn,For t moment wind farm group or the wind power prediction value of wind power plant,It is calculated by formula (10),For
The practical power generating value that last round of optimization process obtains, λ1、λ2、λ3Respectively operation plan tracking, wind power fluctuation inhibition and wind
The weight coefficient of these three minimum targets of electricity limit power output, λ1+λ2+λ3=1；Constraint condition is that output of wind electric field amplitude is limited and climbed
Ratio of slope limitation；
For cluster Optimized Operation layer, n indicates that field group is coordinated to divide according to step D sorted wind farm group quantity
Class layer, n indicate wind-powered electricity generation number, and execution level automatic for single game, then objective function is as follows:
On the basis of above scheme, in step D, the detailed process classified to the wind power plant in wind-powered electricity generation cluster are as follows:
Based on super short-period wind power by resolution ratio for 5min is predicted, using moment t as starting point, with the following 20min's
Predicted value (4 points) is used as trend reference data, i.e.,
The calculation formula of classification indicators K is as follows:
Wherein, sign () is sign function, whenWhen,WhenWhen,WhenWhen,
By formula (13) it is found that as K=4 or -4, indicate that wind power plant future 20min persistently rises or falls presentation
Trend, as -4 < K < 4, which will be presented fluctuation tendency；According to national standard given threshold τ, it is less than the wave of τ
Emotionally condition is considered as steadily, therefore wind power plant is divided into upper climbing group, lower climbing group, steady group and oscillation 4 class wind farm group of group, point
Group's process will divide group by period dynamic of 10min.The national standard are as follows: " wind power plant accesses power train to GB/T19963-2011
System technical stipulation ".
On the basis of above scheme, in step E, in the automatic execution level of single game, according to spinning reserve nargin under AGC unit and
Wind-powered electricity generation sends out section nargin computing system can dissolve wind-powered electricity generation nargin △ P againmar, as △ PmarWhen > 0, show that system can continue to dissolve
Wind-powered electricity generation, then according to the classification of step D, group's wind power plant suppressed power of climbing in release；As △ PmarWhen < 0, show system not
It can continue to dissolve wind-powered electricity generation, then according to the classification of step D, inhibit lower group's wind power of climbing, it is ensured that system safety operation, it can be again
Dissolve wind-powered electricity generation nargin △ PmarCalculation formula specifically as shown in formula (14):
Wherein, △ PmarWind-powered electricity generation nargin can be dissolved again for system；Section nargin is sent out for wind-powered electricity generation, sends out and breaks when wind-powered electricity generation
When face trend is more than that wind-powered electricity generation sends out the section tidal current limit,OtherwiseFor spinning reserve under AGC
Nargin, when spinning reserve capacity is greater than the spinning reserve capacity limit under AGC under AGC,Otherwise
On the basis of above scheme, in step F, the practical power generating value of the wind farm group or wind power plant refers to each
The model machine for being not involved in control is arranged in wind power plant, so that measurement does not add the wind power output of control.
On the basis of above scheme, in step F, the expression formula of wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant wind power prediction value is corrected
Are as follows:
Wherein,The wind power prediction value of t+ △ t moment is corrected for t moment,Before the amendment of t+ △ t moment
Wind power prediction value, H is error correction parameters, and e is the wind power prediction error of wind farm group or wind power plant,
A kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions of the present invention and hierarchical control method, have the advantages that
Model Predictive Control is applied in the real power control strategy of wind-powered electricity generation cluster by the method for the invention, in prediction link
The spatial coherence for considering wind power can be coordinated in wind-powered electricity generation cluster compared with the active allocation strategy of traditional wind power plant
Each output of wind electric field, makes the more accurate trace scheduling planned trajectory of wind power plant, and layering weakens wind power fluctuation and prediction step by step
Error keeps the power output of entire wind-powered electricity generation cluster transmitting system steady, while consideration and AGC unit real time coordination, in wind-powered electricity generation collection
Increase wind electricity digestion to greatest extent under the constraint of group's submitting section.
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention has following attached drawing:
Control strategy flow chart Fig. 1 of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with attached drawing, invention is further described in detail.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions of the present invention and hierarchical control method, including walk as follows
It is rapid:
Step A. is surpassed according to the topological structure in wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant based on spatial coherence and NWP data
Short-term wind-electricity power prediction, obtains wind power prediction value.
A1. the space coordinate T of each wind power plant or each blower of wind power plant in wind-powered electricity generation cluster is seti(xi,yi,zi), each axial fan hub
Locate wind speedWind direction di(0 °~360 °, with due north for 0 ° and 360 °, clockwise), each wind power plant surveys wind
Tower wind speedWind direction di, wind power Pi, the horizontal distance between two wind power plants is Δ lij；
The related coefficient between two wind power plants is calculated according to the historical data time series of wind speed, wind direction and wind power
Are as follows:
Wherein, xi、xjIt is in some same time period to two geographical location node TiAnd TjSame variable (the wind at place
Speed, wind direction, wind power) observation time sequence, N be observation number, xikFor node TiSight in k-th of observation
Time series is surveyed,For xikTime Series Mean, xjkFor node TjObservation time sequence in k-th of observation,For xjk
Time Series Mean；
Node TiAnd TjBetween statistical correlation coefficient be ultimately expressed as:
Wherein,For wind speed correlation,For wind direction correlation,For wind power correlation；
According to formula (2), statistical correlation matrix can be indicated are as follows:
Wherein, n is the number of wind power plant in the number or wind-powered electricity generation cluster of wind power plant inner blower,
A2. node TiAnd TjBetween atmosphere (wind) motion change process by Navier Stokes equation and continuity equation
Description:
Wherein,For the momentum change of wind,For barometric gradient,For in section
Ao Lili,For molecular friction power, fgFor gravity, ρ is atmospheric density, and p is atmospheric pressure,It is earth rotation speed, η
It is shear viscosity；
Node TiAnd TjBetween wind speed variable quantity are as follows:
Wherein, f1It is according to the calculated wind speed variable quantity of logarithm wind profile, f2It is according to Na Wei-Stokes side
Journey and the calculated wind speed variable quantity of continuity equation, f2It is calculated by formula (4) and formula (5), α and β are above two wind respectively
The weight of fast variable quantity；
According to formula (6), wind speed transformation matrices can be indicated are as follows:
A3. the wind speed of blower or wind-powered electricity generation field prediction local blower or wind power plant at adjacent node is utilized, it is necessary first to count
Weighted value when each adjacent node participates in calculating is calculated, prediction node T is calculated according to statistical correlation coefficientiWhen other nodes weight
Value namely connecting node TiEach branch weight coefficient wij:
Wherein, wijFor node TiWith adjacent node TjBetween weight coefficient；
According to the wind power of each adjacent node and wind speed, corresponding weight coefficient and statistical correlation coefficient and related gas
Image information predicts local wind speed and wind power, and is generalized to other each node TiWind speed and wind power prediction:
Wherein,For wind power prediction value,For wind speed value, σiAnd σjRespectively node TiAnd TjPlace except wind speed,
Relevant weather information (such as temperature, humidity, atmospheric density, air pressure) except wind power, εiIt is error term, λ and μ are amendments
Coefficient；Function GiAnd HiRespectively correspond the prediction model of wind speed and wind power.
The wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching value that step B. is issued according to wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching center, control process is spatially divided into
Wind power prediction value is inhibited wind-powered electricity generation to promote operation plan tracking accuracy from time upper successively refinement by three control layers
Power swing；
By attached drawing 1 it is found that control process is divided into cluster Optimized Operation layer according to time scale and space scale, field group assists
Classification layer and the automatic execution level of single game are adjusted, by wind power prediction value from time upper successively refinement, to promote operation plan rail
Mark tracking accuracy inhibits wind power fluctuation, reaches and cuts down control error step by step；In the layer-by-layer thinning process of wind power prediction value
In inhibited with operation plan tracking, wind power fluctuation and wind-powered electricity generation limit is contributed minimum target, with limitation, the amplitude limit link etc. of climbing
For constraint, the dispatch value of wind-powered electricity generation cluster is handed down at reasonable distribution wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching center.Objectives function is as follows:
Wherein,For the wind farm group of t moment or the practical power generating value of wind power plant,The scheduling meter issued for system
Value is drawn,For t moment wind farm group or the wind power prediction value of wind power plant,It is calculated by formula (10),
For the practical power generating value that last round of optimization process obtains, λ1、λ2、λ3Respectively operation plan tracking, wind power fluctuation inhibit and
The weight coefficient of these three minimum targets of wind-powered electricity generation limit power output, λ1+λ2+λ3=1；Constraint condition be output of wind electric field amplitude limitation and
The limitation of climbing rate；
For cluster Optimized Operation layer, n indicates that field group is coordinated to divide according to step D sorted wind farm group quantity
Class layer, n indicate wind-powered electricity generation number, and execution level automatic for single game, then objective function is as follows:
Step C. is in cluster Optimized Operation layer, the wind power prediction value based on 15min resolution ratio, with the 15min time
Scale carries out rolling optimization to the active power output of each wind farm group.
Step D. group on the scene coordinates in classification layer, the wind power prediction value based on 5min resolution ratio, defining classification index
K classifies to wind power plant according to classification indicators K, and wind power plant is divided into four class wind farm groups: the group that above climbs, puts down lower climbing group
Steady group and oscillation group, determine control area, are then carried out with active power output of the 5min time scale to each wind farm group wind power plant
Rolling optimization；
As shown in Fig. 1, group on the scene coordinates in classification layer, will carry out wind power plant and divides group, reduces the frequent of wind power plant
Control.Based on super short-period wind power by resolution ratio for 5min is predicted, using moment t as starting point, the predicted value of the following 20min
(4 points) is used as trend reference data, i.e.,
The calculation formula of classification indicators K is as follows:
Wherein, sign () is sign function, whenWhen,WhenWhen,WhenWhen,
By formula (13) it is found that as K=4 or -4, indicate that wind power plant future 20min persistently rises or falls presentation
Trend, as -4 < K < 4, which will be presented fluctuation tendency；According to national standard given threshold τ, it is less than the wave of τ
Emotionally condition is considered as steadily, therefore wind power plant is divided into upper climbing group, lower climbing group, steady group and oscillation 4 class of group, divides group's process will
Divide group by period dynamic of 10min.The national standard are as follows: " wind power plant accesses power system technology to GB/T 19963-2011
Regulation ".
Step E. is in the automatic execution level of single game, the wind power prediction value based on 1min resolution ratio, with 1min time ruler
It spends and rolling optimization is carried out to the active power output of each wind power plant；It is standby based on being rotated under AGC unit on the basis of rolling optimization result
Section nargin is sent out with nargin and wind-powered electricity generation and judges that wind-powered electricity generation can issue additional space, when the two space abundance, then group's wind-powered electricity generation of climbing in additional issue
Field power output；When one of both insufficient space, then lower group's output of wind electric field of climbing is reduced；
In the automatic execution level of single game, section nargin computing system is sent out according to spinning reserve nargin under AGC unit and wind-powered electricity generation
Wind-powered electricity generation nargin △ P can be dissolved againmar, as △ PmarWhen > 0, show that system can continue consumption wind-powered electricity generation and release then according to the classification of step D
Put climbing group's wind power plant suppressed power；As △ PmarWhen < 0, show that system cannot continue to dissolve wind-powered electricity generation, then according to step D
Classification, inhibit lower group's wind power of climbing, it is ensured that system safety operation can dissolve wind-powered electricity generation nargin △ P againmarCalculating it is public
Formula is specifically as shown in formula (14):
Wherein, △ PmarWind-powered electricity generation nargin can be dissolved again for system；Section nargin is sent out for wind-powered electricity generation, sends out and breaks when wind-powered electricity generation
When face trend is more than that wind-powered electricity generation sends out the section tidal current limit,Otherwise For spinning reserve under AGC
Nargin, when spinning reserve capacity is greater than the spinning reserve capacity limit under AGC under AGC,Otherwise
Step F. is based on wind power plant and runs and monitor system, according to the practical power output of the wind farm group or wind power plant monitored
Value calculates and feeds back the wind power prediction error of wind farm group or wind power plant, corrects wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant wind power
Predicted value keeps optimization process more accurate.
The practical power generating value of the wind farm group or wind power plant, which refers to, is not involved in the model machine of control in the setting of each wind power plant,
To which measurement does not add the wind power output of control.
Correct the expression formula of wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant wind power prediction value are as follows:
Wherein,The wind power prediction value of t+ △ t moment is corrected for t moment,Before the amendment of t+ △ t moment
Wind power prediction value, H is error correction parameters, and e is the wind power prediction error of wind farm group or wind power plant,
The above is only preferred embodiments of the invention, is not intended to limit the present invention in any form, ability
Field technique personnel make a little simple modification, equivalent variations or decoration using the technology contents of the disclosure above, all fall within the present invention
Protection scope in.
The content being not described in detail in this specification belongs to the prior art well known to professional and technical personnel in the field.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions and hierarchical control method, it is characterised in that: the following steps are included:
A. according to the topological structure in wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant, ultra-short term wind-powered electricity generation is carried out based on spatial coherence and NWP data
Power prediction obtains wind power prediction value；
B. it is handed down to the dispatch value of wind-powered electricity generation cluster according to wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching center, control process is spatially divided into three controls
Preparative layer: cluster Optimized Operation layer, field group coordinate the classification layer and automatic execution level of single game, by wind power prediction value from the time by
Layer refines, in layer-by-layer thinning process, with operation plan tracking, wind power fluctuation inhibition and the minimum mesh of wind-powered electricity generation limit power output
Mark is constraint with climbing limitation, amplitude limit link, and the dispatch value of wind-powered electricity generation cluster is handed down at reasonable distribution wind-powered electricity generation colony dispatching center,
To promote operation plan tracking accuracy, inhibit wind power fluctuation；
C. in cluster Optimized Operation layer, the wind power prediction value based on 15min resolution ratio, with 15min time scale to each
The active power output of wind farm group carries out rolling optimization；
D. group on the scene coordinates in classification layer, the wind power prediction value based on 5min resolution ratio, defining classification index K, according to point
Class index K classifies to wind power plant, and wind power plant is divided into four class wind farm groups: above climb group, lower climbing group, steady group and vibration
Group is swung, rolling optimization is then carried out with active power output of the 5min time scale to wind power plant in each wind farm group；
E. in the automatic execution level of single game, the wind power prediction value based on 1min resolution ratio, with 1min time scale to each wind
The active power output of electric field carries out rolling optimization；On the basis of rolling optimization result, based on spinning reserve nargin under AGC unit and
Wind-powered electricity generation sends out section nargin and judges that wind-powered electricity generation can issue additional space, when the two space abundance, then group's output of wind electric field of climbing in additional issue；When
One of both insufficient space then reduces lower group's output of wind electric field of climbing；
F. it is run based on wind power plant and is calculated with the system of monitoring according to the practical power generating value of the wind farm group or wind power plant monitored
And the wind power prediction error of wind farm group or wind power plant is fed back, correct the wind power prediction of wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant
Value, keeps optimization process more accurate.
2. wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions according to claim 1 and hierarchical control method, it is characterised in that: in step A, base
The detailed process of super short-period wind power prediction is carried out in spatial coherence and NWP data are as follows:
A1. the space coordinate T of each wind power plant or each blower of wind power plant in wind-powered electricity generation cluster is seti(xi,yi,zi), wind at each axial fan hub
Speed or wind power plant anemometer tower wind speedWind direction di, wind power Pi, the horizontal distance between two wind power plants is
Δlij；
Wherein, xi、yiAnd ziRespectively indicate the component of x-axis, y-axis and z-axis；uxi, uyiAnd uziWind velocity vector is respectively indicated in x-axis, y
The component value of axis and z-axis；
The related coefficient between two wind power plants is calculated according to the historical data time series of wind speed, wind direction and wind power are as follows:
Wherein, Xi、XjIt is in some same time period to two geographical location node TiAnd TjWhen the observation of the same variable at place
Between sequence, N be observation number, XikFor node TiObservation time sequence in k-th of observation,For XikTime sequence
Column mean, XjkFor node TjObservation time sequence in k-th of observation,For XjkTime Series Mean；
Node TiAnd TjBetween statistical correlation coefficient be ultimately expressed as:
Wherein,For wind speed correlation,For wind direction correlation,For wind power correlation；
According to formula (2), statistical correlation matrix can be indicated are as follows:
Wherein, n is the number of wind power plant in the number or wind-powered electricity generation cluster of wind power plant inner blower,Wherein
I, j=1,2 ..., n；
A2. node TiAnd TjBetween the motion change process of atmosphere described by Navier Stokes equation and continuity equation:
Wherein,For the momentum change of wind,For barometric gradient,For Coriolis
Power,For molecular friction power, fgFor gravity, ρ is atmospheric density, and p is atmospheric pressure,It is earth rotation speed, η is to cut
Cut viscosity；
Node TiAnd TjBetween wind speed variable quantity are as follows:
Wherein, f1It is according to the calculated wind speed variable quantity of logarithm wind profile, f2Be according to Navier Stokes equation and
The calculated wind speed variable quantity of continuity equation, f2It is calculated by formula (4) and formula (5), α and β are that above two wind speed becomes respectively
The weight of change amount；
According to formula (6), wind speed transformation matrices can be indicated are as follows:
A3. the wind speed of blower or wind-powered electricity generation field prediction local blower or wind power plant at adjacent node is utilized；
First according to statistical correlation coefficient calculate node TiWeight coefficient w between adjacent nodeij:
Wherein, wijFor node TiWith adjacent node TjBetween weight coefficient；
Believed according to the wind power of each adjacent node with wind speed, corresponding weight coefficient and statistical correlation coefficient and relevant weather
Breath predicts local wind speed and wind power, and is generalized to other each node TiWind speed and wind power prediction:
Wherein,For wind power prediction value,For wind speed value, σiAnd σjRespectively node TiAnd TjRemove wind speed, wind-powered electricity generation in place
Relevant weather information except power, εiIt is error term, λ and μ are correction factors；Function GiAnd HiRespectively correspond wind speed and wind-powered electricity generation
The prediction model of power.
3. wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions according to claim 2 and hierarchical control method, it is characterised in that: in step B, base
In three control layers, is inhibited in layer-by-layer thinning process with operation plan tracking, wind power fluctuation and wind-powered electricity generation limit power output is minimum
For target, objectives function is as follows:
Wherein,For the practical power generating value of wind power of the wind farm group or wind power plant k of t moment,It is issued for system
Operation plan value,For the wind power prediction value of t moment wind farm group or wind power plant k,It is calculated by formula (10),For the practical power generating value that last round of optimization process obtains, λ1、λ2、λ3Respectively operation plan tracking, wind power fluctuation
Inhibit the weight coefficient with these three minimum targets of wind-powered electricity generation limit power output, λ1+λ2+λ3=1；Constraint condition is output of wind electric field amplitude
Limitation and the limitation of climbing rate；
For cluster Optimized Operation layer, n is indicated according to the sorted wind farm group quantity of step D, coordinates classification layer for field group,
N indicates wind-powered electricity generation number, and execution level automatic for single game, then objective function is as follows:
4. wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions according to claim 1 and hierarchical control method, it is characterised in that: right in step D
The detailed process that wind power plant in wind-powered electricity generation cluster is classified are as follows:
Based on super short-period wind power by resolution ratio for 5min is predicted, using moment t as starting point, with the prediction of the following 20min
Value is used as trend reference data, is expressed as
The calculation formula of classification indicators K is as follows:
Wherein, sign () is sign function, whenWhen,WhenWhen,WhenWhen,
By formula (13) it is found that as K=4 or -4, indicates that wind power plant future 20min will be presented and persistently rise or fall
Gesture, as -4 < K < 4, which will be presented fluctuation tendency；According to national standard given threshold τ, it is less than the fluctuation of τ
Situation is considered as steadily, therefore wind power plant is divided into upper climbing group, lower climbing group, steady group and oscillation 4 class wind farm group of group, divides group
Process will divide group by period dynamic of 10min.
5. wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions according to claim 4 and hierarchical control method, it is characterised in that: country's mark
It is quasi- are as follows: GB/T 19963-2011 " wind power plant accesses power system technology regulation ".
6. wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions according to claim 1 and hierarchical control method, it is characterised in that: in step E, In
The automatic execution level of single game, wind can be dissolved again by sending out section nargin computing system according to spinning reserve nargin under AGC unit and wind-powered electricity generation
Electric nargin △ Pmar, as △ PmarWhen > 0, show that system can continue to dissolve wind-powered electricity generation, then according to the classification of step D, climb group in release
Wind power plant suppressed power；As △ PmarWhen < 0, show that system cannot continue to dissolve wind-powered electricity generation, then according to the classification of step D, suppression
The lower group's wind power of climbing of system, it is ensured that system safety operation can dissolve wind-powered electricity generation nargin △ P againmarCalculation formula specifically as public
Shown in formula (14):
Wherein, △ PmarWind-powered electricity generation nargin can be dissolved again for system；Section nargin is sent out for wind-powered electricity generation, when wind-powered electricity generation sends out section tide
When stream is more than that wind-powered electricity generation sends out the section tidal current limit,Otherwise For spinning reserve nargin under AGC,
When spinning reserve capacity is greater than the spinning reserve capacity limit under AGC under AGC,Otherwise
7. wind-powered electricity generation cluster trajectory predictions according to claim 1 and hierarchical control method, it is characterised in that: in step F, repair
The expression formula of positive wind-powered electricity generation cluster and wind power plant wind power prediction value are as follows:
Wherein,The wind power prediction value of t+ △ t moment is corrected for t moment,For the wind before the amendment of t+ △ t moment
Electrical power predicted value, H are error correction parameters, and e is the wind power prediction error of wind farm group or wind power plant, For the wind power prediction value of t moment wind farm group or wind power plant k,For the wind farm group of t moment
Or the practical power generating value of wind power of wind power plant k.
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