CN107766985A - A kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology - Google Patents
A kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology, including：River mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data are gathered, establishes database；Average daily data processing is carried out to river mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data, obtains the average daily run-off in river mouth and river mouth day homohalin value；The average daily run-off statistical model of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth is estimated, establishes the fit correlation formula of the average daily run-off of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth；River mouth day homohalin and memory salinity statistical model are estimated, establishes the fit correlation formula of river mouth day homohalin and memory salinity；Consider the average daily run-off in river mouth and remember the influence of salinity, establish river mouth salinity prediction statistical model, statistical model prediction river mouth salinity is predicted according to river mouth salinity.The salt angle value that the present invention dynamically predicts next day, prediction result are accurate；Forecast model only has a unknown parameter, simplifies salinity forecasting problem.The present invention can fetch water for Hekou Area and provide foundation and technical support.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology, belongs to river mouth salty tide technical field.
Background technology
Hekou Area is the area that crosses in ocean and river, is the area that economy is most active in the world, population is most dense
One.And as social economy is fast-developing, more and more deep to the resources development and utilization of Hekou Area, river mouth salty tide traces back problem
Also it is following, directly affect the fresh water supply of the resident living of Hekou Area, field irrigation, urban industry production etc..Therefore,
Accurate Prediction river mouth salty tide, which is traced back, to have important practical significance.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to overcome deficiency of the prior art, there is provided a kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology, Neng Gouzhun
Really prediction Hekou Area salinity, foundation is provided for Hekou Area water intaking.
To reach above-mentioned purpose, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is：A kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology, including it is as follows
Step：River mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data are gathered, establishes database；
Average daily data processing is carried out to river mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data, obtains the average daily run-off in river mouth and river mouth
Day homohalin value；
The average daily run-off statistical model of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth is estimated, establishes the average daily footpath of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth
The fit correlation formula of flow；
River mouth day homohalin and memory salinity statistical model are estimated, the fitting for establishing river mouth day homohalin and memory salinity is closed
It is formula；
Consider the average daily run-off in river mouth and remember the influence of salinity, establish river mouth salinity prediction statistical model, according to
River mouth salinity prediction statistical model prediction river mouth salinity.
The survey station arranged by Hekou Area to be predicted gathers river mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data.
Acquisition time was at intervals of 1 hour.
River mouth day homohalin and the average daily run-off in river mouth fit correlation formula it is as follows：
SQ=aQexp(-bQQ) (1)
In formula：SQOnly to consider the day homohalin predicted value under the average daily run-off Q in river mouth；Q is the average daily runoff in river mouth；aQWith
bQFor fitting coefficient.
The specific method for establishing the fit correlation formula of river mouth day homohalin and memory salinity is as follows：
Current time day homohalin measured value is calculated using autoregressive method：
St=F (St-1,St-2,St-3) (2)
In formula：StFor the day homohalin measured value of the t days；St-iFor the day homohalin measured value of the t-i days；
Using dynamic model, and combine gamma distribution function, day homohalin predictor formula it is as follows：
In formula：ωt-iFor important coefficient；α is form parameter；β is scale parameter；To consider the of important coefficient
The day homohalin measured value of t-i days；
In formula：To consider the day homohalin predicted value of the t+1 days of important coefficient；It is for fitting
Number.
The river mouth salinity prediction statistical model is as follows：
In formula：St+1For the day homohalin predicted value of the t+1 days；Qt+1For the average daily runoff of the t+1 days；A, b, c are fitting
Coefficient；E is constant term.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effect that is reached of the present invention is：The salt angle value of next day is dynamically predicted, and
And prediction result is very accurate；Forecast model only has an average daily runoff of main unknown parameter, and salinity is predicted challenge letter
Dan Hua, there is simple and practical outstanding feature；Foundation and technical support are provided for Hekou Area water intaking.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the geographical position figure of embodiment survey region；
Fig. 3 is the average daily run-off in river mouth and the Day-to-day variability figure of day homohalin；
Fig. 4 is that the different fitting forms of the average daily run-off in river mouth and day homohalin compare figure；
Wherein, a represents exponential function；B represents power function；
Fig. 5 is only to consider in September, 2011~2013 year flat hilllock day homohalin prediction in December under the influence of the average daily run-off in river mouth
Value and day homohalin measured value comparison diagram；
Fig. 6 is to consider the Nian8Yue Ping hilllocks day of the average daily run-off in river mouth and memory Effects of Salinity lower in September, 2011~2012
Homohalin predicted value and day homohalin measured value comparison diagram；
Fig. 7 is to consider the average daily run-off in river mouth and the lower flat hilllock in September, 2012~2013 year December of memory Effects of Salinity
Day homohalin predicted value and day homohalin measured value comparison diagram.
Embodiment
The invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.Following examples are only used for clearly illustrating the present invention
Technical scheme, and can not be limited the scope of the invention with this.
As shown in figure 1, being the flow chart of salinity Forecasting Methodology in river mouth of the present invention, comprise the following steps：
Step 1：Estimation range is treated using the survey station arranged in Hekou Area to be monitored, and gathers river mouth footpath flow data
With river mouth Salinity Data, database is established.Acquisition time was at intervals of 1 hour.
Step 2：Average daily data processing is carried out to river mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data, obtains the average daily runoff in river mouth
Amount and river mouth day homohalin value；
Average daily data processing refers to：According to the river mouth runoff measured data and river mouth salinity measured data gathered per hour,
Arithmetic average is made to both respectively in units of day, accordingly, you can obtain the average daily run-off in river mouth and river mouth day homohalin value.
Step 3：The average daily run-off statistical model of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth is estimated, establishes river mouth day homohalin and river
The fit correlation formula of the average daily run-off of mouth；
Exemplified by Pearl River Estuary, the regional geography position is as shown in Figure 2.Wherein upstream runoff survey station is Ma Kou stations and three water
To stand, salinity survey station is flat hilllock station, wherein, calculated to simplify, Ma Kou is stood and is added with the footpath flow valuve of three water stations, with addition
Obtained runoff and studied.Upstream runoff and Salinity Data are all the actual measurement per hour in September, 2011~2013 year December
Data.
From the figure 3, it may be seen that there is obvious dependency relation between average daily runoff and day homohalin, with subtracting for average daily runoff
Small, the day homohalin of river mouth section significantly increases；With the increase of average daily runoff, the day homohalin of river mouth section is substantially reduced, even
Close to 0.By the observation being distributed to day homohalin and the scatterplot of average daily runoff, comparison index functional form and power function shape
Formula, as shown in Figure 4, it is known that goodness of fit index R corresponding to exponential function2For 0.29, goodness of fit index R corresponding to power function2
For 0.27, exponential function form is more excellent, is closed so as to establish the exponential fitting of the average daily run-off of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth
System：
SQ=aQexp(-bQQ) (1)
In formula：SQOnly to consider the day homohalin predicted value under the average daily run-off Q in river mouth, unit psu；Q is river mouth day
Equal runoff, unit m3/s；aQAnd bQFor fitting coefficient.Prediction result is as shown in Figure 5.
Step 4：River mouth day homohalin and memory salinity statistical model are estimated, establishes river mouth day homohalin and memory salinity
Fit correlation formula；
Consider the influence of the memory effect of history salinity, current time day homohalin measured value is calculated using autoregressive method：
St=F (St-1,St-2,St-3) (2)
In formula：StFor the day homohalin measured value of the t days, unit pus；St-iFor the day homohalin actual measurement of the t-i days
Value, unit pus；
Using dynamic model, and combine gamma distribution function, day homohalin predictor formula it is as follows：
In formula：ωt-iFor important coefficient；α is form parameter；β is scale parameter；To consider the of important coefficient
The day homohalin measured value of t-i days, unit psu；
In formula：To consider the day homohalin predicted value of the t+1 days of important coefficient, unit pus；
For fitting coefficient.
According to formula (5), by the day homohalin measured value of t-1, t-2 and t-3 days for introducing consideration important coefficientWithIt is fitted the day homohalin measured value S of the t daystObtain fitting coefficientAgain by fitting coefficient band
Enter formula (6), by the day homohalin measured value of t, t-1 and t-2 days of consideration important coefficientWithPredict t
The day homohalin value of+1 day, so far complete a circulation.
Step 5：Consider the average daily run-off in river mouth and remember the influence of salinity, establish river mouth salinity prediction statistics mould
Type, statistical model prediction river mouth salinity is predicted according to river mouth salinity.
The river mouth salinity prediction statistical model is as follows：
In formula：St+1For the day homohalin predicted value of the t+1 days, unit psu；Qt+1It is single for the average daily runoff of the t+1 days
Position is m3/s；A, b, c are fitting coefficient；E is constant term.Prediction result is as shown in Figure 6 and Figure 7.
The present invention is established based on average daily by providing a kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology based on runoff and memory salinity
The river mouth salt solution forecast model of runoff and memory salinity, the salt angle value for dynamically predicting next day, and prediction result is very
Accurately；Forecast model only has an average daily runoff of main unknown parameter, and salinity prediction challenge is simplified, and has easy to be real
Outstanding feature；Foundation and technical support are provided for Hekou Area water intaking.
Described above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, without departing from the technical principles of the invention, some improvement and deformation can also be made, these are improved and deformation
Also it should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of river mouth salinity Forecasting Methodology, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
River mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data are gathered, establishes database；
Average daily data processing is carried out to river mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data, the average daily run-off in river mouth is obtained and river mouth is average daily
Salt angle value；
The average daily run-off statistical model of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth is estimated, establishes the average daily run-off of river mouth day homohalin and river mouth
Fit correlation formula；
River mouth day homohalin and memory salinity statistical model are estimated, establishes the fit correlation of river mouth day homohalin and memory salinity
Formula；
Consider the average daily run-off in river mouth and remember the influence of salinity, river mouth salinity prediction statistical model is established, according to river mouth
Salinity prediction statistical model prediction river mouth salinity.
2. salinity Forecasting Methodology in river mouth according to claim 1, it is characterised in that arranged by Hekou Area to be predicted
Survey station gathers river mouth footpath flow data and river mouth Salinity Data.
3. salinity Forecasting Methodology in river mouth according to claim 2, it is characterised in that acquisition time was at intervals of 1 hour.
4. salinity Forecasting Methodology in river mouth according to claim 1, it is characterised in that river mouth day the homohalin and average daily footpath in river mouth
The fit correlation formula of flow is as follows：
SQ=aQexp(-bQQ) (1)
In formula：SQOnly to consider the day homohalin predicted value under the average daily run-off Q in river mouth；Q is the average daily runoff in river mouth；aQAnd bQFor
Fitting coefficient.
5. salinity Forecasting Methodology in river mouth according to claim 4, it is characterised in that establish river mouth day homohalin and memory salt
The specific method of the fit correlation formula of degree is as follows：
Current time day homohalin measured value is calculated using autoregressive method：
St=F (St-1,St-2,St-3) (2)
In formula：StFor the day homohalin measured value of the t days；St-iFor the day homohalin measured value of the t-i days；
Using dynamic model, and combine gamma distribution function, day homohalin predictor formula it is as follows：
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In formula：ωt-iFor important coefficient；α is form parameter；β is scale parameter；To consider the t-i days of important coefficient
Day homohalin measured value；
In formula：To consider the day homohalin predicted value of the t+1 days of important coefficient；For fitting coefficient.
6. salinity Forecasting Methodology in river mouth according to claim 5, it is characterised in that the river mouth salinity predicts statistical model
It is as follows：
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In formula：St+1For the day homohalin predicted value of the t+1 days；Qt+1For the average daily runoff of the t+1 days；A, b, c are fitting coefficient；
E is constant term.
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Cited By (5)
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| CN109840313A (en) * | 2019-01-22 | 2019-06-04 | 河海大学 | A kind of Hekou Area less salt water intaking determination method |
| CN110110942A (en) * | 2019-05-20 | 2019-08-09 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | A kind of salinity effect method of riverine getting water from water head site mouth |
| CN110287624A (en) * | 2019-06-28 | 2019-09-27 | 宁波市气象台 | A method of for cultivating salinity effect model foundation in bay during typhoon influence |
| CN115081740A (en) * | 2022-07-20 | 2022-09-20 | 中山大学 | Estuary area salinity prediction method, system and equipment based on cellular automaton |
| CN116776539A (en) * | 2023-05-09 | 2023-09-19 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | Salt tide forecasting method and system based on cross wavelet analysis |
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Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109840313A (en) * | 2019-01-22 | 2019-06-04 | 河海大学 | A kind of Hekou Area less salt water intaking determination method |
| CN109840313B (en) * | 2019-01-22 | 2023-08-01 | 河海大学 | Low-salt water intake judging method for estuary area |
| CN110110942A (en) * | 2019-05-20 | 2019-08-09 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | A kind of salinity effect method of riverine getting water from water head site mouth |
| CN110287624A (en) * | 2019-06-28 | 2019-09-27 | 宁波市气象台 | A method of for cultivating salinity effect model foundation in bay during typhoon influence |
| CN115081740A (en) * | 2022-07-20 | 2022-09-20 | 中山大学 | Estuary area salinity prediction method, system and equipment based on cellular automaton |
| CN116776539A (en) * | 2023-05-09 | 2023-09-19 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | Salt tide forecasting method and system based on cross wavelet analysis |
| CN116776539B (en) * | 2023-05-09 | 2023-12-12 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | Salt tide forecasting method and system based on cross wavelet analysis |
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